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On October 02 2022 06:29 Taelshin wrote: Thanks {CC}StealthBlue for keeping this thread, and others updated. I don't always agree with your sources but i appreciate how you consistently give them.
Now it's been a few days, Plasmidghost has made their stance clear, But I haven't heard a lot from the rest of the forum. besides the massive life loss of UK/RU in this war, That is frankly worrying. Who do you all think blew up the pipline?
Id bet against Russia on it but I'm open to hear others opinions.
Makes no sense for Russia to blow it up when they control the flow.They can turn it off and use it as a bargaining chip against Europe later in the winter, full gas flow resumption on lifting of sanctions etc.
I don’t see how it benefits them more to blow it up, probably there is a lot we aren’t being told.
Very little Russia has done lately makes sense. That’s why they’re the main suspect. They’ve been attacking shit in Europe for over a decade. Does it make sense for them to launch a chemical weapon attack against Salisbury? Give their proxies anti aircraft missile and kill 200 Dutchmen? Does it make sense for them to use all their precision missiles on civilian targets?
The fact that it makes no sense is all the more reason to think they did it. It’d be weird if they started engaging in rational productive decisions.
On October 02 2022 06:29 Taelshin wrote: Thanks {CC}StealthBlue for keeping this thread, and others updated. I don't always agree with your sources but i appreciate how you consistently give them.
Now it's been a few days, Plasmidghost has made their stance clear, But I haven't heard a lot from the rest of the forum. besides the massive life loss of UK/RU in this war, That is frankly worrying. Who do you all think blew up the pipline?
Id bet against Russia on it but I'm open to hear others opinions.
Makes no sense for Russia to blow it up when they control the flow.They can turn it off and use it as a bargaining chip against Europe later in the winter, full gas flow resumption on lifting of sanctions etc.
I don’t see how it benefits them more to blow it up, probably there is a lot we aren’t being told.
It makes perfect sense considering the people in control of Russia at this point are not rational businessmen or politicians who want the best for Russia but ethnonationalists who clearly do not want any option of an off-ramp. The off-ramp would require going back to being a petrol state at the bare minimum, blowing up the pipe eliminates the infrastructure to do so.
Let us be honest right now, they'd have stopped fighting this war long ago if the ethnonationalists weren't in charge. Their military literally can't handle what they're facing in Ukraine right now and everyone rational can see that. But they're throwing troops into the meat grinder because they're desperate to create the Great Patriotic War Part 2 and they simply believe that Putin was lied to by the military and the Russia people are just being pussies in the words of war journalists like Anastasiya Kashevarova.
It also warns everyone in the region that their underwater infrastructure is not safe and they're more than capable and willing to disrupt them if they continue their hostilities towards Russia. If our basis for the US blowing up the pipe is a USN helicopter that wasn't actually anywhere near the pipe and Biden saying some shit, Russia has been acting way more suspiciously:
Slightly related but I have started doing something I never thought I would have to:
I'm writing deeply personal and final messages to send to the most important people in my life in the event nuclear weapons are deployed.
I now live 25km from NATO headquarters. I'm essentially in range of the biggest target in Europe. If nukes fly, I am dead. At least I got to experience some happiness before then.
On October 02 2022 07:19 KwarK wrote: Bombing things in secret is the last resort of a nation that lacks the soft power to get what they want. Russia has been doing this nonsense for years. Secret wars in Ukraine. Chemical weapon attacks in England. The US does it’s work in public.
I suppose it depends on how one interprets the doings of the CIA, NED, NSA, etc as to US foreign policy secrecy vs overtness.
That said, it could have been Russia, but it seems heavily dependent on a very loose narrative based strategy rather than rooted in material value like the US's motives. Is there a serious write up of the motives for Russia?
To your point, there are several other European countries with motive and opportunity (and a lack of soft power) but they'd likely have needed the assurances of the US that it wouldn't come back hurt them/their NATO/EU relationship.
On October 02 2022 06:29 Taelshin wrote: Thanks {CC}StealthBlue for keeping this thread, and others updated. I don't always agree with your sources but i appreciate how you consistently give them.
Now it's been a few days, Plasmidghost has made their stance clear, But I haven't heard a lot from the rest of the forum. besides the massive life loss of UK/RU in this war, That is frankly worrying. Who do you all think blew up the pipline?
Id bet against Russia on it but I'm open to hear others opinions.
Makes no sense for Russia to blow it up when they control the flow.They can turn it off and use it as a bargaining chip against Europe later in the winter, full gas flow resumption on lifting of sanctions etc.
I don’t see how it benefits them more to blow it up.
It makes perfect sense, considering the fact that the damage to NS1 was reportedly catastrophic whereas the damage to NS2 appears repairable (not to mention the fact that one pipe is intact, IIRC). In that situation, for Russia to resume gas deliveries to Germany, the EU would have to lift the sanctions on NS2 to use it in place of NS1.
If the US was caught, it would be considered an overt act of war considering the US just blew up Gazprom's asset, which is state owned and of vital importance to Russia. Not just that, a gas leak basically means anything in the area will sink like a rock.
I'm not convinced you can argue that Denmark, Sweden, Norway, Finland, and Germany all knew about it, somehow warned all of their ships to not enter the area, and somehow all sailors are keeping their mouths shut. This is the type of stuff that leaks real easy.
If the US did blow it up in secret and a ship from Denmark, Sweden, Norway, Finland, and Germany sank like a rock, it would be a ridiculous international diplomatic catastrophe. For a pipe that was already shut off and would probably be shut off infinitely.
Russia consistently does shit in bad faith, the sham annexation elections they just had being a prime example. They also have a propensity for boneheaded moves that serve no one but the nationalists like collecting all EU foodstuffs and destroying them with a bulldozer after they were hit with the Crimea sanctions. Millions and millions of dollars of food that included fresh fruit and vegetables that could have been used to feed their own people were wasted...just so Russia could look tough in front of domestic TV.
At this point who is in charge? The people in charge aren't Gazprom or energy execs because they're all getting murdered. Its the siloviki who want nothing but to isolate Russia from the rest of the world. Trashing the pipeline gets rid of any remote option of an off-ramp. For a group of people who just want to stay in power, its completely rational for them to destroy the only piece of infrastructure that exports anything of worth out of Russia.
If they didn't completely trash it, then its likely a continuation of the veiled threats indicating that they have the ability to trash assets Europe needs and they need to stop supporting Ukraine. Its pretty clear what motives Russia has to destroy or damage their own assets because this is not the first time they've done such a move.
On October 02 2022 06:29 Taelshin wrote: Thanks {CC}StealthBlue for keeping this thread, and others updated. I don't always agree with your sources but i appreciate how you consistently give them.
Now it's been a few days, Plasmidghost has made their stance clear, But I haven't heard a lot from the rest of the forum. besides the massive life loss of UK/RU in this war, That is frankly worrying. Who do you all think blew up the pipline?
Id bet against Russia on it but I'm open to hear others opinions.
Makes no sense for Russia to blow it up when they control the flow.They can turn it off and use it as a bargaining chip against Europe later in the winter, full gas flow resumption on lifting of sanctions etc.
I don’t see how it benefits them more to blow it up.
It makes perfect sense, considering the fact that the damage to NS1 was reportedly catastrophic whereas the damage to NS2 appears repairable (not to mention the fact that one pipe is intact, IIRC). In that situation, for Russia to resume gas deliveries to Germany, the EU would have to lift the sanctions on NS2 to use it in place of NS1.
If that's the case, then it fits with Russia sending a fleet of boats to hang around undersea communication assets. They're just sending a veiled threat to everyone in the region to lift sanctions or else.
On October 02 2022 07:39 JimmiC wrote: Does bombing your allies infrastructure during war time make sense?
Well, I just gave you reasoning in the post above yours.
Russia turns off gas, states will resume flow on lifting of sanctions.US is concerned come January there will be many European leaders willing to lift sanctions in return for gas flow resumption.Off the table now with the destruction of the pipe.
And I’m not saying this is for certain what happened, but it makes more sense than Russia blowing up its own pipeline and destroying her best bargaining tool.
Armenia still wants the land being fought over and they would have a severe domestic issue if they gave up claims over the disputed lands.
Asking for us mediation to get turkey off its back is it's only long term solution but that will come at a cost as the us will side with turkey. It will however end the war and the threat of future wars. Armenia made their choice to bet on Russia being stronger than turkey and has lost that bet.
They can offer at least the future to stabilize the region completely with everyone being nato aligned. The prospect of an Iraqi pipeline and/or a baku to black sea pipeline is enough to buy everyone's happiness and peace in the area.
On a separate note enough the stories about traumatic slaughters of Russians fleeing lyman is heartbreaking. People don't realize just how easy it is to die on the battlefield if you don't have a western casevac program. The drone footage from this war is as bad as the cartel videos people shared two decades ago on liveleak. Yet they get shared on Reddit like a lady in underwear.
China and India could and this war if they wanted to.
Germany to supply new state of the art air defense systems to Ukraine this month. Germany also announced they will start arming Moldova and it's armed forces.
BERLIN, Oct 1 (Reuters) - Germany will deliver the first of four advanced IRIS-T air defence systems to Ukraine in the coming days to help ward off drone attacks, its defence minister Christine Lambrecht said during an unannounced visit to Odessa on Saturday.
As air raid sirens sounded in the port city above, Lambrecht held talks with her Ukrainian counterpart Oleksii Reznikov in an underground bunker. Lambrecht had extended a visit to nearby Moldova for the meeting.
"In a few days, we will deliver the very modern IRIS-T air defence system," she told ARD television. "It is very important for drone defence in particular."
Ukraine has been seeing more attacks from Iranian-made kamikaze drones in recent weeks, costing lives and causing serious damage to infrastructure.
It first emerged in May that Berlin was considering sending the IRIS-T surface-to-air defence system, which costs 150 million euros ($147 million) apiece.
The German armed forces themselves do not currently own the system, reckoned among the world's most advanced.
Earlier, meeting her Moldovan counterpart Anatolie Nosatii in Chisinau, she urged Western countries not to be deterred from arming Ukraine by threats that Russia could use nuclear weapons.
"We have to be very careful," she said. "But we mustn't let ourselves be paralysed."
Germany is facing calls to step up its support for Ukraine, including by sending offensive weapons such as the modern tanks Kyiv says it needs to take the fight to Russian forces.
Berlin has so far resisted such calls, arguing that such moves would escalate the situation and pointing out that no other country has so far sent tanks more modern than old Soviet stock sent by former Warsaw Pact countries.
On October 02 2022 07:54 plasmidghost wrote: Slightly related but I have started doing something I never thought I would have to:
I'm writing deeply personal and final messages to send to the most important people in my life in the event nuclear weapons are deployed.
I now live 25km from NATO headquarters. I'm essentially in range of the biggest target in Europe. If nukes fly, I am dead. At least I got to experience some happiness before then.
You really can’t seem to catch a break. Sorry you’ve ended up in a precarious situation
On October 02 2022 07:39 JimmiC wrote: Does bombing your allies infrastructure during war time make sense?
Well, I just gave you reasoning in the post above yours.
Russia turns off gas, states will resume flow on lifting of sanctions.US is concerned come January there will be many European leaders willing to lift sanctions in return for gas flow resumption.Off the table now with the destruction of the pipe.
And I’m not saying this is for certain what happened, but it makes more sense than Russia blowing up its own pipeline and destroying her best bargaining tool.
Sanctions aren't getting lifted even if Western Europe collapses and everyone knows this.
There's zero ability for anyone to go back to pre-February normality, as much as Germany's business elite want to turn on the gas again. The only way sanctions are getting lifted is if Russia shows serious good faith measures to its neighbours. Unfortunately, it clearly does not have any intention of doing this and the recent messaging from Putin et al is straight up some manifest destiny bullshit. Most people close to Russia's borders would consider that type of messaging to be terrifying.
The US knows this, Russia knows this, Europe knows this. The pipe was never going to get turned back on because the US and much of Eastern Europe (who have legitimate historical grievances with Russia that aren't merely economic) will still assist Ukraine and Russia isn't turning that shit on until people let them fulfill their manifest destiny bullshit to reunite the Russian people. There's no compromise to be had because Russia dug themselves into an ideological hole where they absolutely have no room to compromise.
It doesn't really matter what Germany says in this matter, everyone is telling them to suck shit for basing so much of their economy on cheap gas from Russia.
So no, I still don't think the US still had no good reason to blow up the pipe.
On October 02 2022 08:45 Sermokala wrote: On a separate note enough the stories about traumatic slaughters of Russians fleeing lyman is heartbreaking. People don't realize just how easy it is to die on the battlefield if you don't have a western casevac program. The drone footage from this war is as bad as the cartel videos people shared two decades ago on liveleak. Yet they get shared on Reddit like a lady in underwear.
China and India could and this war if they wanted to.
Truthfully, the mobilisation really seemed more like an ethnic cleansing operation rather than a proper effort to bolster the troops if it is true that Central Asia was the primary victim of Russia' press ganging efforts. We already know conscripts are given like two days of basic training, Russia isn't stupid and can't assume random people with guns are effective against well trained troops and weapons.
With that in mind, I'm not sure anyone can really end this war. Its ultimately up to Russia to stop invading Ukraine, after all they're an independent country with agency. If they want to dig themselves to the core of the earth with their ethnonationalism and collectively self destruct as a country at this point, that's ultimately up to them really.
On October 02 2022 08:45 Sermokala wrote: On a separate note enough the stories about traumatic slaughters of Russians fleeing lyman is heartbreaking. People don't realize just how easy it is to die on the battlefield if you don't have a western casevac program. The drone footage from this war is as bad as the cartel videos people shared two decades ago on liveleak. Yet they get shared on Reddit like a lady in underwear.
China and India could and this war if they wanted to.
One interesting dynamic is how a weak Russia is very good for China and India in the short term. Maybe great for China long term if they are able to essentially absorb Russia informally. I can imagine a situation where Russia is bound to China the same was as some African countries
On October 02 2022 07:54 plasmidghost wrote: Slightly related but I have started doing something I never thought I would have to:
I'm writing deeply personal and final messages to send to the most important people in my life in the event nuclear weapons are deployed.
I now live 25km from NATO headquarters. I'm essentially in range of the biggest target in Europe. If nukes fly, I am dead. At least I got to experience some happiness before then.
Actually, I think that being near the NATO HQ makes you safer than say myself. Sure, it's a prime target, but it will also have the best defences. Meanwhile I live not that far from the UA border and in the immediate vicinity I have a nitrogen processing plant (which is supposed to wipe out anything within 50km radius on its own if it were to blow), airport, helicopter/plane assembly plant (including military stuff), air force academy etc. etc.
I've read somewhere that during the Cold War 4-5 nukes were set to target my city and surrounding area, not sure how much target priorities might've changed since then but my city is rather low on defence priority list for my country.
On October 02 2022 07:54 plasmidghost wrote: Slightly related but I have started doing something I never thought I would have to:
I'm writing deeply personal and final messages to send to the most important people in my life in the event nuclear weapons are deployed.
I now live 25km from NATO headquarters. I'm essentially in range of the biggest target in Europe. If nukes fly, I am dead. At least I got to experience some happiness before then.
Actually, I think that being near the NATO HQ makes you safer than say myself. Sure, it's a prime target, but it will also have the best defences. Meanwhile I live not that far from the UA border and in the immediate vicinity I have a nitrogen processing plant (which is supposed to wipe out anything within 50km radius on its own if it were to blow), airport, helicopter/plane assembly plant (including military stuff), air force academy etc. etc.
I've read somewhere that during the Cold War 4-5 nukes were set to target my city and surrounding area, not sure how much target priorities might've changed since then but my city is rather low on defence priority list for my country.
I doubt that it's safer. Too much important infrastructure in Belgium and The Netherlands for us not to get nuked. It's not just NATO hq but also the ports and the EU. We'd be lucky with 4-5 nukes in this area.
My money is on Russia. From the US perspective, things are going peachy. Why potentially screw things up by bombing your allies? And why now and not a few months ago? Now the war is turning in Ukraine's favour and Ukraine is still receiving outside support. The war is likely to last a long time, but I don't see why US would start employing some hail mary's now of all times compared to any other time. Russia on the other hand... now they are in pretty dire straits where some hail mary's are going to start getting tossed out. They're the ones who have been getting pushed out of their formerly conquered territory.
On October 02 2022 15:39 Falling wrote: My money is on Russia. From the US perspective, things are going peachy. Why potentially screw things up by bombing your allies? And why now and not a few months ago? Now the war is turning in Ukraine's favour and Ukraine is still receiving outside support. The war is likely to last a long time, but I don't see why US would start employing some hail mary's now of all times compared to any other time. Russia on the other hand... now they are in pretty dire straits where some hail mary's are going to start getting tossed out. They're the ones who have been getting pushed out of their formerly conquered territory.
Exactly, just simple Occam's razor would put the US pretty low on the list. Russia's military is basically in a death spiral with the amount of hardware/skilled soldiers they have lost, military contracts they've lost because of the poor performance of their military, and sanctions preventing them from actually replacing their hardware since Russia has long suffered from the Dutch disease.
There's like no reason for the US to start a catastrophic diplomatic row with its allies when they're pumping weapons into Ukraine, they're getting military contracts because Ukraine are using their weapons well, and the pipeline isn't going to get turned on any time soon because Russia has purposely isolated itself from even China and India. Logic would have you assume the US would maintain the status quo because they're eating well from the situation right now.
Meanwhile Russia has press ganged their entire nation of men, many of whom are in no condition to serve, and thrown them to the front with like one or two weeks of training. If that isn't a sign of a country that is behaving desperately, I don't know what is. It isn't like Russia has a surplus of men, there's still a significant demographic imbalance due to the impact of World War 2.
They're flailing to the point that they've basically burnt their IT industry, the one other industry Russia has that doesn't involve exporting gas, to the ground because they've scared off every IT professional they have out of the country. I think it was Lukashenko of all people who actually talked Putin into apologizing about the chaotic draft to try and convince men to come back.
The only way the US trashing the pipelines makes any remote sense is if you subscribe to the theory that the US is the sole actor with agency and the US made Russia invade Ukraine.
I mean... if the US had some kind of intelligence that the EU and Russians were working on reopening Nord Stream 1 in exchange for a lifting of sanctions AND believed they could get away with sabotaging it without incriminating themselves, then I guess it's plausible the US did it. But I don't think either of those things are true... and if the US really was scared of such a deal, why not blow up Nord Stream 2 as well? NS2 is the pipeline they actually object to!
On October 02 2022 07:54 plasmidghost wrote: Slightly related but I have started doing something I never thought I would have to:
I'm writing deeply personal and final messages to send to the most important people in my life in the event nuclear weapons are deployed.
I now live 25km from NATO headquarters. I'm essentially in range of the biggest target in Europe. If nukes fly, I am dead. At least I got to experience some happiness before then.
Actually, I think that being near the NATO HQ makes you safer than say myself. Sure, it's a prime target, but it will also have the best defences. Meanwhile I live not that far from the UA border and in the immediate vicinity I have a nitrogen processing plant (which is supposed to wipe out anything within 50km radius on its own if it were to blow), airport, helicopter/plane assembly plant (including military stuff), air force academy etc. etc.
I've read somewhere that during the Cold War 4-5 nukes were set to target my city and surrounding area, not sure how much target priorities might've changed since then but my city is rather low on defence priority list for my country.
I doubt that it's safer. Too much important infrastructure in Belgium and The Netherlands for us not to get nuked. It's not just NATO hq but also the ports and the EU. We'd be lucky with 4-5 nukes in this area.
I am pretty sure that most of us are in the "dead when nuclear war starts" group of people. Doesn't that include anyone in a major city and surroundings? Which i am pretty sure is the majority of people on this forum.
EPT
