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On September 29 2022 06:57 pmh wrote: Lots of info on tv here today about the outlook of the conflict. Not something to look forward to.
Big question for now seems to be how much Russia will try to anex. Will it be the whole oblasts including the parts they dont control or will it be the parts they do control (i would asume the first).
What do you mean by try to annex? They're currently losing the war and things are going to get much worse for them in the coming months.
I think pmh is asking whether Russia will use the fake referendums to claim the entirety of the oblasts they were held in or just the parts of the oblasts Russia currently has control over.
I think it's irrelevant the exact scope of the annexation. It's an excuse for Russia to mobilize. It also makes things a lot more dangerous since it is now harder for Russia to exit the war. We don't know what Putin will do if he gets too desperate.
On September 29 2022 13:03 JimmiC wrote: I guess fruit from a poison tree kind of thinking is not popular there since they to think fake referendums make it legal to annex territory and then conscript those people to fight their own people. Does this work in Russia? Like do the people there believe this is a real referendum? Because what is the point to everyone else, it will be war crimes to the rest of us.
Legality according to international law or Ukrainian law obviously means nothing to Putin. It's legal under Russian law and that's all that matters for them, until they lose the war.
But to answer the question: My guess is Russians can be broadly categorized as such 1. They don't care to find out the truth and believe what the state media says. 2. They suspect or know the referendum is fake but they don't want to get arrested for speaking out. 3. They already fled the country, or are planning to, because they don't want to be a part of this. 4. They support Putin's actions wholeheartedly and believe it is righteous and just.
On September 29 2022 13:01 gobbledydook wrote: I think it's irrelevant the exact scope of the annexation. It's an excuse for Russia to mobilize. It also makes things a lot more dangerous since it is now harder for Russia to exit the war. We don't know what Putin will do if he gets too desperate.
Mobilization is him getting desperate. Bombing ns1 to stop a coup is getting desperate.
Going to war in the first place was getting desperate back in 2014. He's shown he's past any sort of diplomatic solution so the only way things end is when either Ukraine or Russia collapses.
The only way Russia exits the war is if they exit crimea and the occupied territories. Anything less is appeasement.
On September 29 2022 13:01 gobbledydook wrote: I think it's irrelevant the exact scope of the annexation. It's an excuse for Russia to mobilize. It also makes things a lot more dangerous since it is now harder for Russia to exit the war. We don't know what Putin will do if he gets too desperate.
Mobilization is him getting desperate. Bombing ns1 to stop a coup is getting desperate.
Going to war in the first place was getting desperate back in 2014. He's shown he's past any sort of diplomatic solution so the only way things end is when either Ukraine or Russia collapses.
The only way Russia exits the war is if they exit crimea and the occupied territories. Anything less is appeasement.
Is there anything to support the bold part? I genuine do not have a clue on this one. I am not that naive to believe that Putin have no enemy in Russia or no one is want to eye for his position, but Putin will have to be really desperate to do that. Even though I believe there is "easier" solution to potential coup. But I might be missing something.
On September 29 2022 13:03 JimmiC wrote: I guess fruit from a poison tree kind of thinking is not popular there since they to think fake referendums make it legal to annex territory and then conscript those people to fight their own people. Does this work in Russia? Like do the people there believe this is a real referendum? Because what is the point to everyone else, it will be war crimes to the rest of us.
I think annexation is more about being able to send Russia's own conscripts to the meatgrinder to defend them because those parts are now "Russia" then about conscripting in the area's itself.
On September 29 2022 13:01 gobbledydook wrote: I think it's irrelevant the exact scope of the annexation. It's an excuse for Russia to mobilize. It also makes things a lot more dangerous since it is now harder for Russia to exit the war. We don't know what Putin will do if he gets too desperate.
Mobilization is him getting desperate. Bombing ns1 to stop a coup is getting desperate.
Going to war in the first place was getting desperate back in 2014. He's shown he's past any sort of diplomatic solution so the only way things end is when either Ukraine or Russia collapses.
The only way Russia exits the war is if they exit crimea and the occupied territories. Anything less is appeasement.
He's getting desperate now, but he could get a lot more desperate.
On September 29 2022 13:03 JimmiC wrote: I guess fruit from a poison tree kind of thinking is not popular there since they to think fake referendums make it legal to annex territory and then conscript those people to fight their own people. Does this work in Russia? Like do the people there believe this is a real referendum? Because what is the point to everyone else, it will be war crimes to the rest of us.
LPR and DPR people have already been conscripted. In Zaporozhie and Kherson regions - remains to be seen, but not likely, since they are under Russian control only recently, they are unlikely to destabilize the population there. Plus both these regions combined currently have around a million or so people, a lot of them elderly, so not exactly a mobilization resource in comparison to 145 million Russians. Also a lot of them do not even have Russian passport yet. I would agree with Gorsameth on this one, plus defending your territory it's more of an excuse for the mobilization, than conquering new one.
On September 29 2022 13:03 JimmiC wrote: I guess fruit from a poison tree kind of thinking is not popular there since they to think fake referendums make it legal to annex territory and then conscript those people to fight their own people. Does this work in Russia? Like do the people there believe this is a real referendum? Because what is the point to everyone else, it will be war crimes to the rest of us.
LPR and DPR people have already been conscripted. In Zaporozhie and Kherson regions - remains to be seen, but not likely, since they are under Russian control only recently, they are unlikely to destabilize the population there. Plus both these regions combined currently have around a million or so people, a lot of them elderly, so not exactly a mobilization resource in comparison to 145 million Russians. Also a lot of them do not even have Russian passport yet. I would agree with Gorsameth on this one, plus defending your territory it's more of an excuse for the mobilization, than conquering new one.
I doubt most Russians consider it more than a fig leaf.
On September 29 2022 00:20 {CC}StealthBlue wrote: So it appears the British defense officials believe an underwater drone blew up the pipelines.
You were right about the subs, silly me. Just watched an interview with security expert Christian Mölling. He confirmed that the submarine traffic in the baltic sea is well documented, at least every entry has various detectors (acoustic, sonar, magnetic) and the shallowness doesn't allow a military submarine to go undetected. He also speculates it were UUV/underwater drone attacks, but divers planting devices is possible. In any case, a good bang for your buck.
This is not the classical Russian propaganda news organization from the cold war. It is not operated by the Russian state directly or indirectly (as far as i know,feel free to correct me).
This would be a quiet a development. Because apparently preperations in moscow for an announcement and festivities where already beeing made. Not sure how much weight to put to this reporting and what this actually does mean but it seems that the most escelating scenario is off the table for now?
Well nvm lol,it seems the anouncement will go ahead as planned. This website i guess is not that reliable.
This is not the classical Russian propaganda news organization from the cold war. It is not operated by the Russian state directly or indirectly (as far as i know,feel free to correct me).
This would be a quiet a development. Because apparently preperations in moscow for an announcement and festivities where already beeing made. Not sure how much weight to put to this reporting and what this actually does mean but it seems that the most escelating scenario is off the table for now?
Well nvm lol,it seems the anouncement will go ahead as planned. This website i guess is not that reliable.
I can only say that this site is definetly not pro-Russian, simply because it's blocked for me without VPN,
However their info is incorrect, tomorrow there will be signing of the treaties of acceptance of the new territories within Russia, even ahead of parliament voting. https://ria.ru/20220929/rossiya-1820292553.html
They also building up stages on the streets of Moscow, guess there is some kind of meeting or announcement either tomorrow or in coming days. https://t.me/boris_rozhin/65530
The first assessment on the pipeline attack that makes any kind of sense I have read:
Damage on NS1 is close to catastrophic, with much less damage to NS2. Assuming Russia is behind the attack, this could be an attempt to
1. Force NS2 into operation after all 2. Force a lift on sanctions to allow for repair
Russia had shut down NS1 in July and September citing technical issues which they claim could not be fixed with the sanctions in place. This could be an escalation of this tactic.
An interesting documentary, interviews with parents of Russian soldiers from Far East who died in Ukraine. You can turn the English subtitles on in the settings. It seems like they haven't learned anything from their tragedy. Some interesting tidbits:
@ 2:40 the parents of one of the soldiers say he was deployed to Ukraine back in 2014/2015
@ 3:55 the mother (#1) says that their son knew about the potential invasion back in August 2021 and made decision to go in January 2022, which means there were soldiers who were aware of what was going on (on the other hand, later on the parents of another dead soldier say that they were told he was merely going to exercises)
@ 13:20 mother #1 says they should've bombed whole Ukraine back in 2014/2015 instead of waiting
@ 23:40 the father of the second soldier seems to show much more self-reflections, talks about the fact that Russia itself has plenty of nationalists so perhaps Russia should've started this whole denazification at home
@ 24:30 mother #2 confirms that Russia is kidnapping Ukrainian children; Russia claimed that they were taking in orphans from Donbas but the woman says the children say that soon their fathers will finish killing the Russian invaders and they'll be able to go back home; she also says she wants to cut their throats...
On September 29 2022 19:23 zatic wrote: The first assessment on the pipeline attack that makes any kind of sense I have read:
Damage on NS1 is close to catastrophic, with much less damage to NS2. Assuming Russia is behind the attack, this could be an attempt to
1. Force NS2 into operation after all 2. Force a lift on sanctions to allow for repair
Russia had shut down NS1 in July and September citing technical issues which they claim could not be fixed with the sanctions in place. This could be an escalation of this tactic.
NS2 being lightly damaged while NS1 is heavily damaged makes much more sense from a russian perspective. It allows for a scenario where russia can offer to start supplying again, either asking for a lifting of some sanctions in exchange for NS1 getting fixed, or asking to use NS2 for delivery of the same amount of gas. Or even a combination of those. Any of these options would benefit russia. Sanctions being lifted is the most obvious benefit. Opening NS2 would force the german government to walk back on their position. Even if only the same amount of gas is delivered as before, it will probably influence public opinion. And ofc NS2 being operated at all makes the project more safe for the future, though I have little doubts about it being used in the future either way.
An alternative angle is that this might scare energy markets even more, pouring some gasoline into the fire of the EU energy market. The public will probably also worry a lot more because of it.
This is not the classical Russian propaganda news organization from the cold war. It is not operated by the Russian state directly or indirectly (as far as i know,feel free to correct me).
This would be a quiet a development. Because apparently preperations in moscow for an announcement and festivities where already beeing made. Not sure how much weight to put to this reporting and what this actually does mean but it seems that the most escelating scenario is off the table for now?
Well nvm lol,it seems the anouncement will go ahead as planned. This website i guess is not that reliable.
I can only say that this site is definetly not pro-Russian, simply because it's blocked for me without VPN,
However their info is incorrect, tomorrow there will be signing of the treaties of acceptance of the new territories within Russia, even ahead of parliament voting. https://ria.ru/20220929/rossiya-1820292553.html
They also building up stages on the streets of Moscow, guess there is some kind of meeting or announcement either tomorrow or in coming days. https://t.me/boris_rozhin/65530
That website is full of Kremlin propaganda. Can you access any website ending with ".ua"? Maybe it's a blanket ban.
This is not the classical Russian propaganda news organization from the cold war. It is not operated by the Russian state directly or indirectly (as far as i know,feel free to correct me).
This would be a quiet a development. Because apparently preperations in moscow for an announcement and festivities where already beeing made. Not sure how much weight to put to this reporting and what this actually does mean but it seems that the most escelating scenario is off the table for now?
Well nvm lol,it seems the anouncement will go ahead as planned. This website i guess is not that reliable.
I can only say that this site is definetly not pro-Russian, simply because it's blocked for me without VPN,
However their info is incorrect, tomorrow there will be signing of the treaties of acceptance of the new territories within Russia, even ahead of parliament voting. https://ria.ru/20220929/rossiya-1820292553.html
They also building up stages on the streets of Moscow, guess there is some kind of meeting or announcement either tomorrow or in coming days. https://t.me/boris_rozhin/65530
That website is full of Kremlin propaganda. Can you access any website ending with ".ua"? Maybe it's a blanket ban.
Good question, maybe it's news sites only, can't access sport sites as well, but online shops, marketplaces, e-mail sites with .ua domain seem to work fine.
EPT
