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NOTE: When providing a source, please provide a very brief summary on what it's about and what purpose it adds to the discussion. The supporting statement should clearly explain why the subject is relevant and needs to be discussed. Please follow this rule especially for tweets.

Your supporting statement should always come BEFORE you provide the source.
maybenexttime
Profile Blog Joined November 2006
Poland5761 Posts
September 29 2022 18:19 GMT
#5001
On September 30 2022 01:36 Taelshin wrote:
Unsure why Russia would destroy the pipeline that they control.

Destroy the non-sanctioned one (NS1) and damage the sanctioned one (NS2) just enough that it can still be repaired. Then they can tell Germany that sanctions are preventing it from being repaired. When fixed, they can supply a limited amount of gas to maintain pressure on the EU.
{CC}StealthBlue
Profile Blog Joined January 2003
United States41117 Posts
September 29 2022 18:19 GMT
#5002
On September 30 2022 02:05 Zaros wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 29 2022 21:02 Gorsameth wrote:
bombing other pipelines would be a major escalation from Russia. It would be a much more direct attack against the West then anything they have done before.


Sure, but you can understand a gamble that with some form of plausible deniability that the west isn’t going to get militarily involved as a response.

If Putin desperately needed the money from more gas sales I can imagine it’s a gamble he would take, but I don’t get bombing Nordstream.


Or it is an internal oligarch struggle going on inside of Russia.
"Smokey, this is not 'Nam, this is bowling. There are rules."
Liquid`Drone
Profile Joined September 2002
Norway28761 Posts
September 29 2022 19:10 GMT
#5003
I'm actually wondering if Russian motivation for this might be just as much about the internal messaging. I'm understanding that Russian media is covering this even more than western media is (but blaming the west/usa) and it seems like a reasonable way to give credence to the claim that the west is attacking us/cooperation is a failed endeavor/this is an existential battle so mobilization is justified/the west is using every measure so losing isn't that humiliating.
Moderator
maybenexttime
Profile Blog Joined November 2006
Poland5761 Posts
Last Edited: 2022-09-29 19:21:31
September 29 2022 19:16 GMT
#5004
People were making fun of Kremlinology and now we're all turning into couch Kremlinologists. ;-P

Edit: A comment from Reddit:

You haven't officially lost until you stop playing.

If this was a starcraft game Ruzzia would be at the phase where they lift off all their buildings and put them in the corners.

xD
Manit0u
Profile Blog Joined August 2004
Poland17692 Posts
Last Edited: 2022-09-29 19:38:44
September 29 2022 19:33 GMT
#5005


Quite an interesting point of view. According to this guy the invasion is a direct result of US interventions in UA politics even before 2014 and the West encroaching on Russia's sphere of influence.
Time is precious. Waste it wisely.
RvB
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
Netherlands6269 Posts
September 29 2022 19:40 GMT
#5006
On September 30 2022 03:19 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 30 2022 02:05 Zaros wrote:
On September 29 2022 21:02 Gorsameth wrote:
bombing other pipelines would be a major escalation from Russia. It would be a much more direct attack against the West then anything they have done before.


Sure, but you can understand a gamble that with some form of plausible deniability that the west isn’t going to get militarily involved as a response.

If Putin desperately needed the money from more gas sales I can imagine it’s a gamble he would take, but I don’t get bombing Nordstream.


Or it is an internal oligarch struggle going on inside of Russia.

Russia has no real oligarchs. What many call Russian oligarchs are billionaires who depend on Putin for their position. They don't have political power.
plasmidghost
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
Belgium16168 Posts
September 29 2022 19:44 GMT
#5007
My whole thought about the pipelines being blown up by Russia is that a year ago, I would've absolutely said there's no way Russia would've done it because they're not stupid and reckless, but given this entire year, maybe they just are
Yugoslavia will always live on in my heart
Gahlo
Profile Joined February 2010
United States35172 Posts
September 29 2022 19:44 GMT
#5008
On September 30 2022 01:34 maybenexttime wrote:
They're sending Flash. ;-)

Just as long as there's no [trauma deleted] than this is over.
maybenexttime
Profile Blog Joined November 2006
Poland5761 Posts
Last Edited: 2022-09-29 19:47:40
September 29 2022 19:45 GMT
#5009
On September 30 2022 04:33 Manit0u wrote:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WVXzwnU1H6U

Quite an interesting point of view. According to this guy the invasion is a direct result of US interventions in UA politics even before 2014 and the West encroaching on Russia's sphere of influence.

How is that interesting? T____T

On September 30 2022 04:44 Gahlo wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 30 2022 01:34 maybenexttime wrote:
They're sending Flash. ;-)

Just as long as there's no [trauma deleted] than this is over.

They've been hitting power plants for a reason. ;-)
Gorsameth
Profile Joined April 2010
Netherlands22131 Posts
September 29 2022 19:50 GMT
#5010
On September 30 2022 04:33 Manit0u wrote:
Quite an interesting point of view. According to this guy the invasion is a direct result of US interventions in UA politics even before 2014 and the West encroaching on Russia's sphere of influence.
"We had to invade because Ukraine wanted to join the West to defend itself against us invading them" has literally been the Russian troll defence everywhere online since the Crimea invasion.

There is nothing new or interesting about it, its basic Kremlin propaganda 101.
It ignores such insignificant forces as time, entropy, and death
KwarK
Profile Blog Joined July 2006
United States43675 Posts
September 29 2022 19:58 GMT
#5011
On September 30 2022 04:50 Gorsameth wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 30 2022 04:33 Manit0u wrote:
Quite an interesting point of view. According to this guy the invasion is a direct result of US interventions in UA politics even before 2014 and the West encroaching on Russia's sphere of influence.
"We had to invade because Ukraine wanted to join the West to defend itself against us invading them" has literally been the Russian troll defence everywhere online since the Crimea invasion.

There is nothing new or interesting about it, its basic Kremlin propaganda 101.

No but they called dibs on Ukraine and the west didn’t honour dibs.
ModeratorThe angels have the phone box
{CC}StealthBlue
Profile Blog Joined January 2003
United States41117 Posts
Last Edited: 2022-09-29 21:04:50
September 29 2022 20:59 GMT
#5012
Lyman is reportedly surrounded.



"Smokey, this is not 'Nam, this is bowling. There are rules."
maybenexttime
Profile Blog Joined November 2006
Poland5761 Posts
September 29 2022 21:08 GMT
#5013
There is no panic in Lyman. ;-)
Manit0u
Profile Blog Joined August 2004
Poland17692 Posts
September 29 2022 21:14 GMT
#5014
Time is precious. Waste it wisely.
{CC}StealthBlue
Profile Blog Joined January 2003
United States41117 Posts
September 29 2022 21:21 GMT
#5015
"Smokey, this is not 'Nam, this is bowling. There are rules."
SC-Shield
Profile Joined December 2018
Bulgaria837 Posts
September 29 2022 22:53 GMT
#5016
Ok, I have a new theory why Russia is doing this annexation or what it could end up from it. If you remember from pre-Maidan time, Russia was promising cheaper gas to Ukraine to keep them in their sphere of influence instead of EU. Well, since Ukraine is no longer interested, how do you think they could keep Ukraine aligned? I think by promising them their territories back but not immediately, maybe after x years (think of Hong Kong and UK) if they promise to be good with Russia. And if Ukraine doesn't play nice, more buffer territories to Russia.
Personally, I hope I'm not correct on this one but just a different perspective for the long-term. I hope Ukraine wins so these scenarios don't turn into reality.
{CC}StealthBlue
Profile Blog Joined January 2003
United States41117 Posts
September 29 2022 23:32 GMT
#5017
But said buffer zones have more holes than a tea bag and are falling defensively... Also who the hell is going to buy Natural Gas from Russia in the West ever again?
"Smokey, this is not 'Nam, this is bowling. There are rules."
KwarK
Profile Blog Joined July 2006
United States43675 Posts
September 30 2022 00:28 GMT
#5018
On September 30 2022 07:53 SC-Shield wrote:
Ok, I have a new theory why Russia is doing this annexation or what it could end up from it. If you remember from pre-Maidan time, Russia was promising cheaper gas to Ukraine to keep them in their sphere of influence instead of EU. Well, since Ukraine is no longer interested, how do you think they could keep Ukraine aligned? I think by promising them their territories back but not immediately, maybe after x years (think of Hong Kong and UK) if they promise to be good with Russia. And if Ukraine doesn't play nice, more buffer territories to Russia.
Personally, I hope I'm not correct on this one but just a different perspective for the long-term. I hope Ukraine wins so these scenarios don't turn into reality.

It’s not super complicated. It’s a failed attempt an establishing a friendly client state. They planned to rush Kyiv, Zelensky would run, the Quisling government would make peace with Russia, the Ukrainian army would stand down, and the west would be forced to accept a fait accompli. They never wanted to be in any part of an actual shooting war and have been making it up as they go for months.
ModeratorThe angels have the phone box
NrG.Bamboo
Profile Blog Joined December 2006
United States2756 Posts
September 30 2022 00:40 GMT
#5019
On September 30 2022 04:33 Manit0u wrote:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WVXzwnU1H6U

Quite an interesting point of view. According to this guy the invasion is a direct result of US interventions in UA politics even before 2014 and the West encroaching on Russia's sphere of influence.

Makes sense to me. Full disclosure: I'm a fan of Dave Smith (as a comedian and also an aspiring libertarian politician,) so I may be a bit biased. However, he brings up a few good points about the fact that our government conveniently ignored a shitload of facts when it comes to war(s) in order to paint the correct narrative to include themselves in. It isn't the first time, and I doubt it will be the last. America got to where it is by infiltrating, obstructing, destroying, and denying involvement in any part of the world worth giving a shit about, why would they change that now? Why the fuck would anyone trust us now? I believe US had significant involvement in Euromaiden. I believe they have interests involved in aiding Ukraine in succeeding against Russia. I won't go into Burisma because it touches on conspiracy, which most of this forum is quick to dismiss if it doesn't fit their worldview, but it's pretty evident that many high-powered people in the US had economic or political involvement in Ukraine before, during, and/or after the current conflict.

What's so strange about this concept? I thought most of this was common knowledge at this point. Why wouldn't anyone care to investigate or post personal opinions about a conflict before reading about what lead up to it? Asking for a friend, of course.

Anyway, congrats to the 4 new oblasts being included into Russia. Ukraine won't recognize Luhansk, Donbass, Zaporozhye, or Kherson as Russian territories, so look forward to escalation soon. See y'all on the other side of WW3, I suppose.
I need to protect all your life you can enjoy the vibrant life of your battery
Manit0u
Profile Blog Joined August 2004
Poland17692 Posts
September 30 2022 01:04 GMT
#5020
On September 30 2022 09:40 NrG.Bamboo wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 30 2022 04:33 Manit0u wrote:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WVXzwnU1H6U

Quite an interesting point of view. According to this guy the invasion is a direct result of US interventions in UA politics even before 2014 and the West encroaching on Russia's sphere of influence.

Makes sense to me. Full disclosure: I'm a fan of Dave Smith (as a comedian and also an aspiring libertarian politician,) so I may be a bit biased. However, he brings up a few good points about the fact that our government conveniently ignored a shitload of facts when it comes to war(s) in order to paint the correct narrative to include themselves in. It isn't the first time, and I doubt it will be the last. America got to where it is by infiltrating, obstructing, destroying, and denying involvement in any part of the world worth giving a shit about, why would they change that now? Why the fuck would anyone trust us now? I believe US had significant involvement in Euromaiden. I believe they have interests involved in aiding Ukraine in succeeding against Russia. I won't go into Burisma because it touches on conspiracy, which most of this forum is quick to dismiss if it doesn't fit their worldview, but it's pretty evident that many high-powered people in the US had economic or political involvement in Ukraine before, during, and/or after the current conflict.

What's so strange about this concept? I thought most of this was common knowledge at this point. Why wouldn't anyone care to investigate or post personal opinions about a conflict before reading about what lead up to it? Asking for a friend, of course.

Anyway, congrats to the 4 new oblasts being included into Russia. Ukraine won't recognize Luhansk, Donbass, Zaporozhye, or Kherson as Russian territories, so look forward to escalation soon. See y'all on the other side of WW3, I suppose.


Well, the only problem with this narrative is that it doesn't really paint the full picture. Sure, the West did encroach on Russia's sphere of influence but that sphere has been dwindling of its own accord for decades now. One of the big driving forces for Russia has also been the mentality of a cornered dog, where they're convinced everyone is out there to get them so after the fall of the Soviet Union they wanted to keep some ex-soviet countries as a buffer zone. Unfortunately for them the West had more to offer and those countries naturally started gravitating towards it and further away from Russia, despite all their efforts. Obviously the West was somewhat involved in the process as it's beneficial for it and also against its core values to deny countries that want to get closer to it (would look kinda bad if they just waved them away and told them to go deal with Russia instead).

What we're seeing now is a result of decades of cultural and economic changes in central and eastern Europe. I don't think we would have this war if only Russia could for once stop acting like it usually does. Personally I could see Russia vying for #1 spot in world powers with US and China if it also adopted more of a western philosophy and would try to act friendly instead of hostile for a change. It could seriously disturb the balance of power since EU would then flock to it instead of US (it's good to be friends with Uncle Sam but he's behind the Great Water...), there would be possibilities for some great trade agreements that would benefit both EU and Russia a lot and it would lead to them developing much better.
Time is precious. Waste it wisely.
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