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On September 30 2022 01:36 Taelshin wrote: Unsure why Russia would destroy the pipeline that they control.
Destroy the non-sanctioned one (NS1) and damage the sanctioned one (NS2) just enough that it can still be repaired. Then they can tell Germany that sanctions are preventing it from being repaired. When fixed, they can supply a limited amount of gas to maintain pressure on the EU.
On September 29 2022 21:02 Gorsameth wrote: bombing other pipelines would be a major escalation from Russia. It would be a much more direct attack against the West then anything they have done before.
Sure, but you can understand a gamble that with some form of plausible deniability that the west isn’t going to get militarily involved as a response.
If Putin desperately needed the money from more gas sales I can imagine it’s a gamble he would take, but I don’t get bombing Nordstream.
Or it is an internal oligarch struggle going on inside of Russia.
I'm actually wondering if Russian motivation for this might be just as much about the internal messaging. I'm understanding that Russian media is covering this even more than western media is (but blaming the west/usa) and it seems like a reasonable way to give credence to the claim that the west is attacking us/cooperation is a failed endeavor/this is an existential battle so mobilization is justified/the west is using every measure so losing isn't that humiliating.
Quite an interesting point of view. According to this guy the invasion is a direct result of US interventions in UA politics even before 2014 and the West encroaching on Russia's sphere of influence.
On September 29 2022 21:02 Gorsameth wrote: bombing other pipelines would be a major escalation from Russia. It would be a much more direct attack against the West then anything they have done before.
Sure, but you can understand a gamble that with some form of plausible deniability that the west isn’t going to get militarily involved as a response.
If Putin desperately needed the money from more gas sales I can imagine it’s a gamble he would take, but I don’t get bombing Nordstream.
Or it is an internal oligarch struggle going on inside of Russia.
Russia has no real oligarchs. What many call Russian oligarchs are billionaires who depend on Putin for their position. They don't have political power.
My whole thought about the pipelines being blown up by Russia is that a year ago, I would've absolutely said there's no way Russia would've done it because they're not stupid and reckless, but given this entire year, maybe they just are
Quite an interesting point of view. According to this guy the invasion is a direct result of US interventions in UA politics even before 2014 and the West encroaching on Russia's sphere of influence.
On September 30 2022 04:33 Manit0u wrote: Quite an interesting point of view. According to this guy the invasion is a direct result of US interventions in UA politics even before 2014 and the West encroaching on Russia's sphere of influence.
"We had to invade because Ukraine wanted to join the West to defend itself against us invading them" has literally been the Russian troll defence everywhere online since the Crimea invasion.
There is nothing new or interesting about it, its basic Kremlin propaganda 101.
On September 30 2022 04:33 Manit0u wrote: Quite an interesting point of view. According to this guy the invasion is a direct result of US interventions in UA politics even before 2014 and the West encroaching on Russia's sphere of influence.
"We had to invade because Ukraine wanted to join the West to defend itself against us invading them" has literally been the Russian troll defence everywhere online since the Crimea invasion.
There is nothing new or interesting about it, its basic Kremlin propaganda 101.
No but they called dibs on Ukraine and the west didn’t honour dibs.
Ok, I have a new theory why Russia is doing this annexation or what it could end up from it. If you remember from pre-Maidan time, Russia was promising cheaper gas to Ukraine to keep them in their sphere of influence instead of EU. Well, since Ukraine is no longer interested, how do you think they could keep Ukraine aligned? I think by promising them their territories back but not immediately, maybe after x years (think of Hong Kong and UK) if they promise to be good with Russia. And if Ukraine doesn't play nice, more buffer territories to Russia. Personally, I hope I'm not correct on this one but just a different perspective for the long-term. I hope Ukraine wins so these scenarios don't turn into reality.
But said buffer zones have more holes than a tea bag and are falling defensively... Also who the hell is going to buy Natural Gas from Russia in the West ever again?
On September 30 2022 07:53 SC-Shield wrote: Ok, I have a new theory why Russia is doing this annexation or what it could end up from it. If you remember from pre-Maidan time, Russia was promising cheaper gas to Ukraine to keep them in their sphere of influence instead of EU. Well, since Ukraine is no longer interested, how do you think they could keep Ukraine aligned? I think by promising them their territories back but not immediately, maybe after x years (think of Hong Kong and UK) if they promise to be good with Russia. And if Ukraine doesn't play nice, more buffer territories to Russia. Personally, I hope I'm not correct on this one but just a different perspective for the long-term. I hope Ukraine wins so these scenarios don't turn into reality.
It’s not super complicated. It’s a failed attempt an establishing a friendly client state. They planned to rush Kyiv, Zelensky would run, the Quisling government would make peace with Russia, the Ukrainian army would stand down, and the west would be forced to accept a fait accompli. They never wanted to be in any part of an actual shooting war and have been making it up as they go for months.
Quite an interesting point of view. According to this guy the invasion is a direct result of US interventions in UA politics even before 2014 and the West encroaching on Russia's sphere of influence.
Makes sense to me. Full disclosure: I'm a fan of Dave Smith (as a comedian and also an aspiring libertarian politician,) so I may be a bit biased. However, he brings up a few good points about the fact that our government conveniently ignored a shitload of facts when it comes to war(s) in order to paint the correct narrative to include themselves in. It isn't the first time, and I doubt it will be the last. America got to where it is by infiltrating, obstructing, destroying, and denying involvement in any part of the world worth giving a shit about, why would they change that now? Why the fuck would anyone trust us now? I believe US had significant involvement in Euromaiden. I believe they have interests involved in aiding Ukraine in succeeding against Russia. I won't go into Burisma because it touches on conspiracy, which most of this forum is quick to dismiss if it doesn't fit their worldview, but it's pretty evident that many high-powered people in the US had economic or political involvement in Ukraine before, during, and/or after the current conflict.
What's so strange about this concept? I thought most of this was common knowledge at this point. Why wouldn't anyone care to investigate or post personal opinions about a conflict before reading about what lead up to it? Asking for a friend, of course.
Anyway, congrats to the 4 new oblasts being included into Russia. Ukraine won't recognize Luhansk, Donbass, Zaporozhye, or Kherson as Russian territories, so look forward to escalation soon. See y'all on the other side of WW3, I suppose.
Quite an interesting point of view. According to this guy the invasion is a direct result of US interventions in UA politics even before 2014 and the West encroaching on Russia's sphere of influence.
Makes sense to me. Full disclosure: I'm a fan of Dave Smith (as a comedian and also an aspiring libertarian politician,) so I may be a bit biased. However, he brings up a few good points about the fact that our government conveniently ignored a shitload of facts when it comes to war(s) in order to paint the correct narrative to include themselves in. It isn't the first time, and I doubt it will be the last. America got to where it is by infiltrating, obstructing, destroying, and denying involvement in any part of the world worth giving a shit about, why would they change that now? Why the fuck would anyone trust us now? I believe US had significant involvement in Euromaiden. I believe they have interests involved in aiding Ukraine in succeeding against Russia. I won't go into Burisma because it touches on conspiracy, which most of this forum is quick to dismiss if it doesn't fit their worldview, but it's pretty evident that many high-powered people in the US had economic or political involvement in Ukraine before, during, and/or after the current conflict.
What's so strange about this concept? I thought most of this was common knowledge at this point. Why wouldn't anyone care to investigate or post personal opinions about a conflict before reading about what lead up to it? Asking for a friend, of course.
Anyway, congrats to the 4 new oblasts being included into Russia. Ukraine won't recognize Luhansk, Donbass, Zaporozhye, or Kherson as Russian territories, so look forward to escalation soon. See y'all on the other side of WW3, I suppose.
Well, the only problem with this narrative is that it doesn't really paint the full picture. Sure, the West did encroach on Russia's sphere of influence but that sphere has been dwindling of its own accord for decades now. One of the big driving forces for Russia has also been the mentality of a cornered dog, where they're convinced everyone is out there to get them so after the fall of the Soviet Union they wanted to keep some ex-soviet countries as a buffer zone. Unfortunately for them the West had more to offer and those countries naturally started gravitating towards it and further away from Russia, despite all their efforts. Obviously the West was somewhat involved in the process as it's beneficial for it and also against its core values to deny countries that want to get closer to it (would look kinda bad if they just waved them away and told them to go deal with Russia instead).
What we're seeing now is a result of decades of cultural and economic changes in central and eastern Europe. I don't think we would have this war if only Russia could for once stop acting like it usually does. Personally I could see Russia vying for #1 spot in world powers with US and China if it also adopted more of a western philosophy and would try to act friendly instead of hostile for a change. It could seriously disturb the balance of power since EU would then flock to it instead of US (it's good to be friends with Uncle Sam but he's behind the Great Water...), there would be possibilities for some great trade agreements that would benefit both EU and Russia a lot and it would lead to them developing much better.