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Russo-Ukrainian War Thread - Page 213

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NOTE: When providing a source, please provide a very brief summary on what it's about and what purpose it adds to the discussion. The supporting statement should clearly explain why the subject is relevant and needs to be discussed. Please follow this rule especially for tweets.

Your supporting statement should always come BEFORE you provide the source.
JimmiC
Profile Blog Joined May 2011
Canada22817 Posts
September 10 2022 21:11 GMT
#4241
--- Nuked ---
Artesimo
Profile Joined February 2015
Germany546 Posts
September 10 2022 21:18 GMT
#4242
On September 11 2022 05:21 KwarK wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 11 2022 05:08 Gorsameth wrote:
On September 11 2022 04:28 Sermokala wrote:1. Silk glove approach? What have you read/ what are people talking about the approach russia has been using? What escalation have they been saving for strategic level attacks like you've been describing? Ie strategic bombers more cruise missiles etc.
I assume he meant this still being a 'special operation' and not an all out war.
Tho that matters in terms of conscription, I haven't been getting the idea that Russia is holding back on equipment because 'its not a real war'.


And it's not like Ukraine doesn't have plenty of its own shit that they could toss at targets within Russian borders if they so chose. They've been holding back to a greater extent than Russia. Russia has been freely attacking infrastructure and civilian targets this entire time whereas Ukraine, correctly identifying that they're answerable to their western backers, have refused to destroy schools in Russian cities in retaliation.

Escalation to total war here would not be favourable to Russia. There's only really one card they have left to play, the nuclear option, and they can't play it.


It is also in ukraines best interest that russia is not mobilising, which might have played into ukraines restraint when it comes to attacks on russian soil. Russias performance has been heavily impacted by their lack of manpower since the beginning of the war. The russian military is not supposed to fight a war without general mobilisation. Afaik, during peacetime they keep a bunch of units incomplete and they are supposed to get filled up through mobilisation. This is why we initially saw BTGs with no long range communication (missing their signalling platoon), units unable to bring enough fire support to properly advance (not having their full strenght of batteries attached to them), units lacking their logistical support elements etc.. Units that are not even aware that they are on a combat mission (some sources suggested this was caused by the US revealing the russian plans for invasion in advance. I saw claims by credible people that it caused paranoia in russias regime and influenced the decision of not telling large parts of the leadership on the ground until just before the invasion).


And moving parts of BTGs around to fill up an incomplete BTG leaves you with a BTG where the elements are not well adjusted to another and may lack in cohesion.
This is all caused by their complete wrong assumptions and their plan of a special military operation.

Though I am not ridiculing them as much for their initial plan as some do. An article about zelensky and what was going on during the first days of the war was posted here some month ago, and it revealed that at least parts of the russian plan came much closer to success than initially told. The article described the hideout of zelensky and ukrainain command in kiev getting assaulted by russian troops (probably infiltration units), which either came close to breaching the building or did breach the building at some point( I don't remember the detail, but either too close for comfort)... if they had succeed, things might have gone a lot more according to plan. But the absolute arrogance and incompetence of very obviously not having any contingency plan at all is just mind boggling... just as much as their little stunt of sending troops to an exercise in the middle of a war, just to keep up appearances.

Initially I waved aside claims of russian leadership being surrounded by yes men as gossip, but this string of what seems very obvious shortcomings and lack of judgement make it hard not to believe that there isn't at least some culture within the russian leadership, that makes it very hard for people to speak out against the ideas of some individuals. At this point it seems to common of an occurrence and on too big of a scale.


For their lack of manpower: In their desperate search for troops without mobilisation, russia has reportedly even deployed trainings personnel to the front. I sincerely hope they wasted so many of their instructors by now that even if they mobilised they would still only end up with mediocre troop quality on average. It would be the perfect conclusion of what seems to be one stupid decision after another coupled with with an adamant refusal to acknowledge their own mistakes.
{CC}StealthBlue
Profile Blog Joined January 2003
United States41117 Posts
September 10 2022 21:20 GMT
#4243
A Russian SU-34 has been shot down by Ukraine.

"Smokey, this is not 'Nam, this is bowling. There are rules."
Artesimo
Profile Joined February 2015
Germany546 Posts
Last Edited: 2022-09-10 21:38:41
September 10 2022 21:38 GMT
#4244
Regarding the silk gloves: Not the entirety of russian military is made up of combat units and even if it was, they can't deploy all of their military because they need units elsewhere for security reasons. They also probably could not maintain the logistics for such a large force being actively engaged, so you can't look at their total numerical strenght and say they are holding back, just because their number of deployed troops is lower than that. The only thing russia is holding back on is mobilising, and sending their super futuristics wunderweapons they have like 7 show models off to ukraine because they can not afford that their precious little wunderwaffe might get blown up or even worse, not work properly. And the latter one does not really count as 'holding back' when its really 'they can not afford to risk it'.

If I want to be super charitable, I am willing to concede that initially russia in general showed restraint when it came to attacks on logistics and infrastructure, but that was only because they assumed this would be over quickly so there is no reason to put a dent on your spoils of war. And even that concession doesn't even hold up for all parts of the front. Plus russia made up for that initial restraint very quickly once things started to slow down they started to just wreak havoc on ukrainian infrastructure. So sure, they held back in some aspects for... idk, I don't want to dig through the timeline of the war, so lets say a few weeks, maybe a bit over a month? And after that they made sure to make up for those missed chances with interest.

If I look at the way they have been generating manpower these past few months, it paints a picture for me in which they are pumping as much manpower into ukraine as they can under the circumstances they created themselves.
zeo
Profile Joined October 2009
Serbia6284 Posts
September 10 2022 21:55 GMT
#4245
On September 11 2022 06:11 JimmiC wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 11 2022 06:02 zeo wrote:
On September 11 2022 04:28 Sermokala wrote:
so I've got a lot of questions. I want you to know that I'm not challenging it directly I'm just asking for more context on a few things.

1. Silk glove approach? What have you read/ what are people talking about the approach russia has been using? What escalation have they been saving for strategic level attacks like you've been describing? Ie strategic bombers more cruise missiles etc.

2. Does the sphere you talk with say that there are only 80k Russian troops deployed in Ukraine since the start? That just seems like an extremely low number is that separate from the LNR/DNR troops you are referring to being half the frontline forces? Also 50k troops being in Chinese war games being soon to be moved to the front seems pretty terrifying if they've only had like 80k regular russian troops in Ukraine. Have they been saying how much was moved off the front to be shipped over to china?

3. Do you have more about the talk about mobilization? I don't get any information on what that talk is like in my spheres. what we've been told is that it would take months to form any units and would be deeply unpopular.

4. What information have you been seeing about how russian loses have been minimal, given the circumstances vs large Ukranian losses? What circumstances are they describing?

No, of course. There is much much more to this than what I wrote but these are grievances that everyone has had since February. And I was responding in that context. I think I answered all your questions out of order below, don't know how coherent it will all come out but its readable...

When this all started Russia deployed 80k troops and along with the 40-50k DNR/LNR forces that's basically been it in regards to force size maybe jumping to 90k during specific offensives. The first phase can be split into three separate campaigns with separate goals, the south with mobile groups systematically taking town by town and consolidating gains in depth while taking a Dnieper bridgehead and Mariupol. Second, the Donbass theater was basically DNR/LNR infantry supplemented with RF heavy weapons pinning down the Ukrainian army so they couldn't redeploy south. And whatever the fuck that was in the North with Kiev, in depth, highly mobile mechanized infantry bypassing population centers and trying to put pressure on Kiev either to force a quick collapse or give time for Russian artillery to set up in the Donbass.

And thats the thing, that whole Northern operation was thirty thousand troops max, there was no way in hell. No possible way they could take a city as big as Kiev with that force. Keep in mind that Ukraine has committed fifty thousand to what is happening in Kharkov now. The talks about low troop numbers started as soon as the general Russian population realized just how small the 'Special Military Operation' force really was compared to what the Ukrainians already had deployed. They were outnumbered 3-1 very quickly but all this was masked by the relative gains being made.

The first month was when the vast majority of Russian losses came. In depth penetration behind enemy lines under heavy weapons fire with close combat fighting. After they took all that they could with that they pulled out of the north and basically started a no close contact campaign with mass artillery slowly grinding down the endless stream of men and western weapons coming in which culminated with the slow push and taking of the Lysichansk salient. This tactic was defended with the statement that they were saving Russian military lives and didn't want to take unnecessary losses but it didn't bring the end of the war closer by one inch.

'Well we are just waiting for Europe to pressure Ukraine into conceding', 'we have all the time in the World, just wait until Hans starts freezing' you might have read or heard. Obviously Kiev was ready to take the L's because they knew Russia couldn't steamroll them with this force. They don't have the numbers to exploit weaknesses, expand buffer zones and encircle Ukrainian groupings and the NATO advisors know this. They fundamentally don't have the numbers not because of losses but because of a set number of troops the just decided to have at any time. After Lysichansk and O group leaving, there were people saying that Russia was basically fighting a proxy war in Donbass. It was the Donbass Republics with infantry on the front line with Wagner and the Chechens, the regular Russian army there as heavy weapons in the background.

The regular Russian army is mostly deployed in Kherson and the Zaporozhe front, I wouldn't be surprised if they knew how big both the offensives would be but just decided to send their army to what is more important for them, the bridgehead over the Dnieper while leaving Kharkov to fate.

Yes, the term being used is silk gloves. The Russian army is one million people, say half of that is people that do the fighting to put it simply. So you start one of the biggest military shitstorms since Vietnam with 16% of your available forces? You purposely don't target civilian infrastructure, you come in with big talk about how you aren't just going to kill everyone scored Earth like the Americans and friends do. Not targeting critical railway infrastructure, bridges, electricity, food, internet. You take over nuclear power plants and send the electricity to Ukraine. You have tens of thousands of troops at the border of Ukraine that you won't use because 'its against the constitution' to deploy the Russian Army outside of Russia, because... its a Special Military Operation remember?

You ask any Russian what they think about my last paragraph and 7 times out of 10 you will get the answer that they are pussyfooting it, 'we were always going to be painted as monsters so who the fuck cares anymore?' 'Mobilize, mobilize... see? Didn't I tell you we should have done this months ago? There are literally 100k former soldiers and volunteers that are begging Putin to just arm them and send them to Ukraine, what the fuck are we waiting for?'


Can you source your numbers? The smallest I can find is 150-190k.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine

Those figures are US intelligence estimates about the size of Russian forces before they went in (according to the two sources on the wiki). Here is the first Ukrainian news source I came upon from March and a google translate:

106 BTG: the Pentagon told where the Russian Armed Forces are most concentrated in Ukraine
One BTG is from 600 to 800 officers and soldiers. Thus, from 63,000 to 84,000 Russian troops may be stationed in Ukraine. The Pentagon noted that almost half of them are concentrated in the southern part of the Ukrainian front.

I mean, looking at news sources figures vary wildly. Some want to make it seem like Russia is not a threat so low numbers, others a threat so they pump the numbers up. But in general reading and listening to people with intimate knowledge of military happenings inside Ukraine say 80-90k. I've seen those estimates from the start and complaints ect. in Telegram groups and blogs/military forums
"If only Kircheis were here" - Everyone
maybenexttime
Profile Blog Joined November 2006
Poland5558 Posts
September 10 2022 22:30 GMT
#4246
Are you including Wagner, separatist etc. troops?
Sermokala
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
United States13931 Posts
September 10 2022 23:41 GMT
#4247
So by silk gloves you are referring to the amount of troops committed to the fight. Is there a belief that the Russian economy can sustain mobilization with how isolated it is now from the global economy?

Are the Russian side of the info war being told that civilian infrastructure civilian buildings and the civilian population has been treated lightly and with minimal damage so far?

The nuclear power plants are already not providing power to Europe. We've seen air strikes and cruse missile strikes so im wondering what the next step proposed would be.

They aren't trying to rationalize nuclear weapons or other weapons of mass destruction please tell me.
A wise man will say that he knows nothing. We're gona party like its 2752 Hail Dark Brandon
Magic Powers
Profile Joined April 2012
Austria4098 Posts
September 11 2022 00:21 GMT
#4248
During WW1 and WW2, a crucial lesson was learned that sending lots of troops into death traps does not win battles. At best it would frustrate the enemy and delay a counter-offensive. Think oldschool zerg style of sending lots of units into bottlenecks controlled by HTs and reavers. You can guess which side in this war plays the role of the zerg.


Ukraine is still making a lot of progress every day. Could be slowing down, I'm not sure, but overall still going strong.

[image loading]
If you want to do the right thing, 80% of your job is done if you don't do the wrong thing.
JimmiC
Profile Blog Joined May 2011
Canada22817 Posts
September 11 2022 00:44 GMT
#4249
--- Nuked ---
Sermokala
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
United States13931 Posts
September 11 2022 00:52 GMT
#4250
On September 11 2022 09:21 Magic Powers wrote:
During WW1 and WW2, a crucial lesson was learned that sending lots of troops into death traps does not win battles. At best it would frustrate the enemy and delay a counter-offensive. Think oldschool zerg style of sending lots of units into bottlenecks controlled by HTs and reavers. You can guess which side in this war plays the role of the zerg.


Ukraine is still making a lot of progress every day. Could be slowing down, I'm not sure, but overall still going strong.

[image loading]

Russia publically announced a withdrawal from the potential pocket formed from the offensive. It should show up in the coming days but unless they continue I'm pretty sure they've completed the offensives goals.
A wise man will say that he knows nothing. We're gona party like its 2752 Hail Dark Brandon
Deleted User 137586
Profile Joined January 2011
7859 Posts
September 11 2022 05:30 GMT
#4251
UA defence minister publicly confirms that UA general staff designed the counter-offensive to be two-pronged: Kherson and Kharkiv.



P. S. There's more to tell on this as the dust settles but it will almost certainly going to end to in history books.
Cry 'havoc' and let slip the dogs of war
zeo
Profile Joined October 2009
Serbia6284 Posts
September 11 2022 06:24 GMT
#4252
On September 11 2022 08:41 Sermokala wrote:
Are the Russian side of the info war being told that civilian infrastructure civilian buildings and the civilian population has been treated lightly and with minimal damage so far?

Who is being told what is besides the point, by any metric the civilian to military causality ratio is quite low compared to other conflicts of this scale and scope.

According to this UN report civilian deaths are at around 5600. Depending on how biased or non-biased you think they are you might dispute their break-down but lets just take that as a base number. Most of the frontline fighting after Mariupol took place in grey zones that have been largely depopulated, with civilians leaving those areas well before the shells started falling.

Weather you believe Ukraine has lost 9000 or 250.000 soldiers, or Russia 4.000 to 1.000.000 or whatever the ratio will still be low compared to say the Vietnam War, with two million civilian deaths and one million military. The Iraq War, numbers vary dramatically but even the sources trying to downplay civilian deaths still have them at much higher than military. You can look at much lower intensity conflicts like the Kosovo War, 10.000 civilian deaths compared to 4.000 military. Or the NATO bombing campaign which had no ground troops, just planes with guided missiles had 2500 civilian and 1000 servicemen deaths (650 military, 350 police).

Depending on your biases you believe whatever numbers you want higher or lower but the ratio always stays there. And it says a lot about the kind of war that was being fought, where, and how much regard both sides had for non-combatant lives.

You can have propaganda shoot 24/7 about Chinese civil war levels of civilian casualties and cruelty with the end result being 800 verified dead. And those same outlets will mention the unfortunate passing into the next life of one million civilians as collateral damage. Propaganda cannot hide the numbers, they come out maybe too late for that conflict, but they always come out and tell the story.
"If only Kircheis were here" - Everyone
Deleted User 137586
Profile Joined January 2011
7859 Posts
September 11 2022 06:24 GMT
#4253
Sunday morning Rainer Saks update for your reading pleasure. Today's issue focuses on the collapse of the Izyum front, the looming defeat of RU troops stuck in Kherson and where it would make sense for RU to draw new defensive lines before winter sets in.


September 11 summary of the previous day
- the Russian front in the Izyum region collapsed for good on the morning of September 10. The Izyum group no longer exists. However, the entire Russian army has not been crushed, fighting in Donbas and the south will definitely continue. The next week will show whether the morale of the Russian army is finally broken, or whether they can motivate themselves to defend themselves. The Russian army has lost its offensive potential.
- In the direction of Kharkiv, a narrow border strip from Kharkiv to Belgorod continues to be under Russian control. They are trying to remain active here, as well as shooting at the city of Kharkiv yesterday. Russian defensive positions are strong here, we'll see how the Ukrainians will solve this issue. It is not impossible that Ukrainians will also invade Russian territory for this purpose, even if it's only in the form of a partisan struggle.
- The Izyum group was unable to organize resistance and on the morning of Saturday, September 10, positions were abandoned at various points. First, they fled from the city of Kupyansk, which sealed the fate of the entire group. But the speed of the Ukrainian offensive exceeded all assumptions and expectations. Since it was still possible to leave Izyum eastward along smaller roads, the Russian units in and around the city of Izyum did so. They left behind all the vehicles, equipment, etc. In addition, they had suffered very heavy losses due to Ukrainian artillery fire during the previous days. the losses of the Russian side became unnecessarily higher also because those reserves, which were sent to save Kupyansk and Izyum, also fell under Ukrainian artillery fire and only added to the confusion. The Russian Ministry of Defense managed to issue an extremely grotesque announcement that troops would be withdrawn from Northern Ukraine and moved to support the Donbas offensive. It is certain that the Russian military command has decided to leave the region (possibly in spite of the political leadership), which also explains the withdrawal of Russian troops from the settlements that the Ukrainian troops have not been able to attack yet. Therefore, with relatively light battles, the Ukrainian troops have also managed to move north from Kupyansk, towards the Russian border, and also eastwards towards the northern part of the Lugansk region.
For the moment, major resistance in the area has ended, but clearing and securing the liberated areas will still take time. It is unlikely that the troops that made an effective offensive in this area will be able to advance very quickly in new directions. The amount of Russian military equipment obtained is very large, in addition, thousands of prisoners should have been taken. Entire Russian military units have ceased to exist, but we will hear more about this in the coming days. There are no clear reports on the fate of the strongest Russian group south of Izyum. As recently as yesterday morning, they attempted a reconnaissance battle. It is possible that some of them escaped. There are certainly several encircled Russian units in the entire area that have not surrendered. So the cleanup may take several more days. You can also be sure that the Russian soldiers who got away from this boiler room are no longer soldiers.
- In the direction of Kramatorsk/Siversk, the initiative has definitely passed into the hands of Ukraine. Cities north of Siversk Donets River will be liberated, the most important of which was Lyman, which was liberated yesterday. But here too, we are moving towards the East. Yesterday, Ukrainian troops arrived near the twin cities of Lysychansk and Severodonetsk, for which fierce battles were fought in June. We'll see in a few days whether the Russian side will be able to organize a defense here in the coming days. Over the last few weeks, Ukraine has launched several painful artillery attacks on Russian positions in this area, and this group here has been properly weakened.
- In the direction of Bakhmut, Russian troops are still trying to invade, but no success has been achieved.
- Near the city of Donetsk, Russian units are also trying to attack with decreasing intensity, but without success. However, there is no credible confirmation of yesterday's Ukrainian counterattack at the Donetsk airport. It cannot be said that the initiative in this area went to Ukrainian forces.
- The artillery duel continues on the southern front, there are no movements of maneuver units. Ukrainian attacks in the rear continue
- In the Kherson region, Ukrainian units have advanced methodically, at a leisurely pace. Artillery and missile attacks by Ukraine clearly prevail, their intensity has not decreased, and losses on the Russian side are consistently high. Russia hasn't been able to create supply routes for the Russian troops on the west side of the Dnieper, and all possible attempts to create greater opportunities to cross the river are crushed by the Ukrainian forces. The resistance of the Russian forces continues, the force group continues to be very large, but the ability to resist is visibly decreasing.
The Russian army needs to build a proper defense in some way so that the Izyum disaster does not cause a so-called domino effect in other regions. A catastrophic disaster is approaching in the Kherson region - in the eastern part of the Donbas, they have built proper defensive positions. The most logical thing would be to try to evacuate the Kherson force group, leave all of southern Ukraine behind, and focus on holding Crimea and Donbas. The question is, of course, whether Russian political leadership would be able to understand this.
The Russian army has suffered a devastating defeat, and by now it is clear that they will not be able to break Ukraine militarily. However, Russia still has very large forces in the occupied territories. In addition, Ukrainian cities are also attacked with missiles. Attrition battles await. Ukraine continues to need additional Western arms assistance to make rapid progress. But the Russian army has reached a point where it is threatened by an even greater defeat than the one they suffered at Izyum.
+ Show Spoiler +


Original:
11. septembri kokkuvõte eelneva päeva kohta - vene vägede rinne Izjumi piirkonnas kukkus 10. septembri hommikul lõplikult kokku. Izjumi grupeeringut ei eksisteeri rohkem. Siiski ei ole purustatud kogu vene armee, võitlused Donbassis ja lõunas kindlasti veel jätkuvad. Järgmine nädal näitab, kas vene armee moraal on lõplikult murtud, või suudavad nad enda kaitsele motiveerida. Ründepotentsiaali on vene armee praeguseks minetanud.
- Harkivi suunal on vene kontrolli all jätkuvalt kitsas piiririba Harkivist Belgorodi suunal. Siin üritatakse aktiivsust hoida, samuti tulistati ka eile veel Harkivi linna. Vene kaitsepositsioonid on siin tugevad, näis kuidas ukrainlased selle küsimuse lahendavad. Ei ole võimatu, et ukrainlased tungivad selleks ka venemaa territooriumile, kasvõi partisanivõitluse vormis.
- Izjumi grueprring ei suutnudki vastupanu korraldada ja laupäeva, 10.septembri hommikul hakati erinevates punktides positsioone maha jätma. Kõigepealt põgeneti Kupjanski linnast, millega oli kogu grupeeringu saatus ka otsustatud. Aga ka edaspidine ukrainlaste pealetungi kiirus oli üle kõigi eelduste ja ootuste. Kuna Izjumist idasuunal oli võimalik veel mööda väiksemaid teid lahkuda, siis vene üksused Izjumi linnas ja ümbruses seda ka tegid. Jätsid maha kogu tehnika, varustuse jms. Lisaks oli neil eelnevate päevade jooksul väga suured kaotused Ukraina suurtükitule tõttu. vene poole kaotused muutusid tarbetult suuremaks ka seetõttu, et need reservid, mida üritati saata Kupjanski ja Izjumi päästmiseks, langesid ka ise Ukraina suurtükitule alla ja lisasid vaid segadust. Vene kaitseministeerium suutis väljastada ülimalt groteskse teate, et väed tõmmatakse Põha-Ukrainast välja ja viiakse Donbassi pealetungi toetama. Kindlasti on otustanud vene väejuhatus piirkonna maha jätta (võimalik ei poliitilise juhtkonna kiuste), mis seletab ka vene vägede lahkumist asulatest, mida Ukraina väed ei ole suutnud veel ründama asuda. Seepärast on Ukraina väed suhteliselt kergete lahingutega suutnud liikuda ka Kupjanskist põhja, vene piiri suunas, ning ka Ida poole Luganski oblasti põhjaosa suunas.
Praeuseks hetkeks on suurem vastupanu piirkonnas lõppenud, aga vabastatud alade puhastamine ja julgestamine võtab veel aega. Vaevalt et siin piirkonnas efektse pealetungi teinud väed saavad veel väga kiiresti edasi tungida uutes suundades. Saadud vene sõjatehnika hulk on väga suur, lisaks peaks olema võetud tuhandeid vange. Terved vene väeüksused on lõpetanud oma eksistentsi, aga sellest kuuleb lähipäevil täpsemalt. Izjumist lõunas paiknenud kõige tugevama vene väegrupi koha selgeid teateid ei ole. Veel eile hommikul üritasid nad luurelahingut. Võimalik , et mingi osas põgenes. Kindlasti on kogu alal veel mitmeid sisse piiratud vene üksuseid, kes ei ole alla andnud. Nii et puhastamine võib kesta veel mitu päeva. Kindel võib olla ka selles, et nendest vene sõduritest, kes siit katlast ka minema said enam sõjamehi ei ole.
- Kramatorski/Siverski suunal on initsiatiiv kindlalt läinud Ukraina kätte. Vabastatakse Siverski Donetsi jõest põhja pool asuvaid linnu, millest kõige olulisem oli eile vabastatud Lõman. Aga ka siin liigutakse edasi Ida poole. Eile jõudsid Uikraina väed Lõssõtšanski ja Severodonetski kaksiklinna lähedale, mille pärast peeti juunis ägedaid lahinguid. Näis, kas lähipäevil suudab vene pool siin kaitset organiseerida. Viimaste nädalate jooksul on Ukraina korraldanud siin piirkonnas mitu valusat suurtükiväe rünnakut vene positsioonidele ja see väegrupp siin on korralikult nõrgenenud.
- Bahmuti suunal üritavad vene väed veel peale tungida, aga edu ei ole saavutatud.
- Donetski linna juures üritavad vene üksused veel samuti väheneva intensiivusega rünnata, aga edutult. Ukraina eilse vastupealetungi kohta Donetski lennuväljal siiski usutavat kinnitust ei ole. Ei saa väita, et initsiatiiv selles piirkonnas oleks Ukraina vägedele läinud
- Lõunarindel käib edasi suurtükiduell, manööverüksuste liikumisi ei ole. Ukraina rünnakud tagalas jätkuvad
- Hersoni piirkonnas on Ukraina üksused metoodiliselt edenenud, rahulikus tempos. Ukraina suurtüki- ja raketirünnakud on selges ülekaalus, nende intensiivsus ei ole langenud ja vene poole kaotused on püsivalt kõrged. Dnepri läänekaldal paiknevate vägede varustamist ei ole käima saadud ja kõikvõimalikud katsed luua suuremaid võimalusi jõge ületada purustatakse Ukraina vägede poolt. Vene vägede vastupanu jätkub, väegrupp on jätkuvalt väga suur, aga vastupanu võime kahaneb nähtavalt.
Vene armeel on tarvis mingil joonel korralik kaitse üles ehitada, et Izjumi katastroof ei põhjustaks nn doominoefekti teistes piirkondades. Saranane katastroof läheneb Hersoni piirkonnas- Donbassi idasosas on neil korralikud kaitsepositsioonid välja ehitatud. Kõige loogilisem oleks proovida evakueerida Hersoni väegrupp, jätta maha kogu Lõuna-Ukraina ja keskenduda Krimmi ja Donbassi hoidmisele. Küsimus on muidugi, kas venemaa poliitiline juhtkond suudaks sellest aru saada.
Vene armee on saanud väga hävitava kaotuse ning praeguseks on selge, et Ukrainat sõjaliselt murda nad ei suuda. Venemaal on okupeeritud aladel siiski veel väga suured jõud. Lisaks rünnatakse veel Ukraina linnu rakettidega. Ees ootavad kurnavad lahingud. Ukrainal on jätkuvalt vaja kiireks edu saavutamiseks täiendavat lääne relvaabi. Aga vene armee on jõudnud punkti, kus ähvardab veelgi suurem kaotus, kui Izjumi juures saadi.

Cry 'havoc' and let slip the dogs of war
Deleted User 137586
Profile Joined January 2011
7859 Posts
September 11 2022 06:36 GMT
#4254
On September 11 2022 15:24 zeo wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 11 2022 08:41 Sermokala wrote:
Are the Russian side of the info war being told that civilian infrastructure civilian buildings and the civilian population has been treated lightly and with minimal damage so far?

Who is being told what is besides the point, by any metric the civilian to military causality ratio is quite low compared to other conflicts of this scale and scope.

According to this UN report civilian deaths are at around 5600. Depending on how biased or non-biased you think they are you might dispute their break-down but lets just take that as a base number. Most of the frontline fighting after Mariupol took place in grey zones that have been largely depopulated, with civilians leaving those areas well before the shells started falling.

Weather you believe Ukraine has lost 9000 or 250.000 soldiers, or Russia 4.000 to 1.000.000 or whatever the ratio will still be low compared to say the Vietnam War, with two million civilian deaths and one million military. The Iraq War, numbers vary dramatically but even the sources trying to downplay civilian deaths still have them at much higher than military. You can look at much lower intensity conflicts like the Kosovo War, 10.000 civilian deaths compared to 4.000 military. Or the NATO bombing campaign which had no ground troops, just planes with guided missiles had 2500 civilian and 1000 servicemen deaths (650 military, 350 police).

Depending on your biases you believe whatever numbers you want higher or lower but the ratio always stays there. And it says a lot about the kind of war that was being fought, where, and how much regard both sides had for non-combatant lives.

You can have propaganda shoot 24/7 about Chinese civil war levels of civilian casualties and cruelty with the end result being 800 verified dead. And those same outlets will mention the unfortunate passing into the next life of one million civilians as collateral damage. Propaganda cannot hide the numbers, they come out maybe too late for that conflict, but they always come out and tell the story.


Zeo is a follower of disgraced Michael Tracey. Good to know.



Of course, his numbers are idiotic. Mariupol alone has estimates of around 25% of the population, or around 100k. And I haven't seen anyone use a military fatalities number larger than 65k. So even this dishonest comparison fails.

But how about we leave this nonsense for after the war when we find out what kind of genocide RU has been committing in occupied territories? So far we have reliable information only about the relatively sparsely populated areas north of Kyiv.
Cry 'havoc' and let slip the dogs of war
zeo
Profile Joined October 2009
Serbia6284 Posts
September 11 2022 07:14 GMT
#4255
On September 11 2022 15:36 Ghanburighan wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 11 2022 15:24 zeo wrote:
On September 11 2022 08:41 Sermokala wrote:
Are the Russian side of the info war being told that civilian infrastructure civilian buildings and the civilian population has been treated lightly and with minimal damage so far?

Who is being told what is besides the point, by any metric the civilian to military causality ratio is quite low compared to other conflicts of this scale and scope.

According to this UN report civilian deaths are at around 5600. Depending on how biased or non-biased you think they are you might dispute their break-down but lets just take that as a base number. Most of the frontline fighting after Mariupol took place in grey zones that have been largely depopulated, with civilians leaving those areas well before the shells started falling.

Weather you believe Ukraine has lost 9000 or 250.000 soldiers, or Russia 4.000 to 1.000.000 or whatever the ratio will still be low compared to say the Vietnam War, with two million civilian deaths and one million military. The Iraq War, numbers vary dramatically but even the sources trying to downplay civilian deaths still have them at much higher than military. You can look at much lower intensity conflicts like the Kosovo War, 10.000 civilian deaths compared to 4.000 military. Or the NATO bombing campaign which had no ground troops, just planes with guided missiles had 2500 civilian and 1000 servicemen deaths (650 military, 350 police).

Depending on your biases you believe whatever numbers you want higher or lower but the ratio always stays there. And it says a lot about the kind of war that was being fought, where, and how much regard both sides had for non-combatant lives.

You can have propaganda shoot 24/7 about Chinese civil war levels of civilian casualties and cruelty with the end result being 800 verified dead. And those same outlets will mention the unfortunate passing into the next life of one million civilians as collateral damage. Propaganda cannot hide the numbers, they come out maybe too late for that conflict, but they always come out and tell the story.


Zeo is a follower of disgraced Michael Tracey. Good to know.

https://twitter.com/mtracey/status/1566098165585018881

Of course, his numbers are idiotic. Mariupol alone has estimates of around 25% of the population, or around 100k. And I haven't seen anyone use a military fatalities number larger than 65k. So even this dishonest comparison fails.

But how about we leave this nonsense for after the war when we find out what kind of genocide RU has been committing in occupied territories? So far we have reliable information only about the relatively sparsely populated areas north of Kyiv.

Are you seriously and unironically saying 25% of Mariupols population died? What? Thats like Hiroshima percentages. No, seriously... what?

I also never had a Twitter account and dont know who Micheal Tracy is. Im sure hes not the first person to ever take UN figures and compare them to other figures in any case. Its not a radical idea. Its like your not even trying anymore with your character assasinations
"If only Kircheis were here" - Everyone
maybenexttime
Profile Blog Joined November 2006
Poland5558 Posts
September 11 2022 08:08 GMT
#4256
On September 11 2022 16:14 zeo wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 11 2022 15:36 Ghanburighan wrote:
On September 11 2022 15:24 zeo wrote:
On September 11 2022 08:41 Sermokala wrote:
Are the Russian side of the info war being told that civilian infrastructure civilian buildings and the civilian population has been treated lightly and with minimal damage so far?

Who is being told what is besides the point, by any metric the civilian to military causality ratio is quite low compared to other conflicts of this scale and scope.

According to this UN report civilian deaths are at around 5600. Depending on how biased or non-biased you think they are you might dispute their break-down but lets just take that as a base number. Most of the frontline fighting after Mariupol took place in grey zones that have been largely depopulated, with civilians leaving those areas well before the shells started falling.

Weather you believe Ukraine has lost 9000 or 250.000 soldiers, or Russia 4.000 to 1.000.000 or whatever the ratio will still be low compared to say the Vietnam War, with two million civilian deaths and one million military. The Iraq War, numbers vary dramatically but even the sources trying to downplay civilian deaths still have them at much higher than military. You can look at much lower intensity conflicts like the Kosovo War, 10.000 civilian deaths compared to 4.000 military. Or the NATO bombing campaign which had no ground troops, just planes with guided missiles had 2500 civilian and 1000 servicemen deaths (650 military, 350 police).

Depending on your biases you believe whatever numbers you want higher or lower but the ratio always stays there. And it says a lot about the kind of war that was being fought, where, and how much regard both sides had for non-combatant lives.

You can have propaganda shoot 24/7 about Chinese civil war levels of civilian casualties and cruelty with the end result being 800 verified dead. And those same outlets will mention the unfortunate passing into the next life of one million civilians as collateral damage. Propaganda cannot hide the numbers, they come out maybe too late for that conflict, but they always come out and tell the story.


Zeo is a follower of disgraced Michael Tracey. Good to know.

https://twitter.com/mtracey/status/1566098165585018881

Of course, his numbers are idiotic. Mariupol alone has estimates of around 25% of the population, or around 100k. And I haven't seen anyone use a military fatalities number larger than 65k. So even this dishonest comparison fails.

But how about we leave this nonsense for after the war when we find out what kind of genocide RU has been committing in occupied territories? So far we have reliable information only about the relatively sparsely populated areas north of Kyiv.

Are you seriously and unironically saying 25% of Mariupols population died? What? Thats like Hiroshima percentages. No, seriously... what?

I also never had a Twitter account and dont know who Micheal Tracy is. Im sure hes not the first person to ever take UN figures and compare them to other figures in any case. Its not a radical idea. Its like your not even trying anymore with your character assasinations

You're so full of shit it's painful to read.

User was warned for this post
Ardias
Profile Joined January 2014
Russian Federation610 Posts
September 11 2022 08:10 GMT
#4257
1) “Ukraine will no longer be satisfied with Russia’s “surrender” of Crimea and Donbas, or reparations for the “invasion.” Kyiv, together with Western allies, will seek "complete surrender and demilitarization of the Russian Federation" - Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine Oleksiy Danilov

Well, I guess this war will be long. UA seem to be very eager after their success in Kharkov region.

2) Meanwhile Kadyrov published a speech in his tg channel. It's long, but I'll pick the main point:

"If today or tomorrow changes are not made in the conduct of a special military operation, I will be forced to contact the country's leadership in order to explain to them the situation on earth. She is very interesting, “awesome” I would say. "

Other parts of the speech included promises to return the lost territories, to talk with military correspondents so they would be less critical of the MoD and government, assurances that AFRF would move up to Odessa etc.
So overall it seems that he is trying to take even more leading role in the war and get points for himself out of this defeat.

3) Reports are coming that last working reactor on ZAPP is being shut down.
Mess with the best or die like the rest.
Vinekh
Profile Joined September 2021
131 Posts
September 11 2022 08:22 GMT
#4258
On September 11 2022 17:10 Ardias wrote:
1) “Ukraine will no longer be satisfied with Russia’s “surrender” of Crimea and Donbas, or reparations for the “invasion.” Kyiv, together with Western allies, will seek "complete surrender and demilitarization of the Russian Federation" - Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine Oleksiy Danilov

Well, I guess this war will be long. UA seem to be very eager after their success in Kharkov region.

2) Meanwhile Kadyrov published a speech in his tg channel. It's long, but I'll pick the main point:

"If today or tomorrow changes are not made in the conduct of a special military operation, I will be forced to contact the country's leadership in order to explain to them the situation on earth. She is very interesting, “awesome” I would say. "

Other parts of the speech included promises to return the lost territories, to talk with military correspondents so they would be less critical of the MoD and government, assurances that AFRF would move up to Odessa etc.
So overall it seems that he is trying to take even more leading role in the war and get points for himself out of this defeat.

3) Reports are coming that last working reactor on ZAPP is being shut down.


Source on the first one?

Don't care about Kadyrov's nonsense.
Ardias
Profile Joined January 2014
Russian Federation610 Posts
September 11 2022 08:35 GMT
#4259
On September 11 2022 17:22 Vinekh wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 11 2022 17:10 Ardias wrote:
1) “Ukraine will no longer be satisfied with Russia’s “surrender” of Crimea and Donbas, or reparations for the “invasion.” Kyiv, together with Western allies, will seek "complete surrender and demilitarization of the Russian Federation" - Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine Oleksiy Danilov

Well, I guess this war will be long. UA seem to be very eager after their success in Kharkov region.

2) Meanwhile Kadyrov published a speech in his tg channel. It's long, but I'll pick the main point:

"If today or tomorrow changes are not made in the conduct of a special military operation, I will be forced to contact the country's leadership in order to explain to them the situation on earth. She is very interesting, “awesome” I would say. "

Other parts of the speech included promises to return the lost territories, to talk with military correspondents so they would be less critical of the MoD and government, assurances that AFRF would move up to Odessa etc.
So overall it seems that he is trying to take even more leading role in the war and get points for himself out of this defeat.

3) Reports are coming that last working reactor on ZAPP is being shut down.


Source on the first one?

Don't care about Kadyrov's nonsense.

https://www.unian.net/war/nashe-zadanie-lishit-rossiyu-zhelaniya-napadat-na-svoih-sosedey-sekretar-snbo-11974419.html?utm_source=telegram&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=unian_channel

I do, last thing I want to see is Kadyrov's rise to power in Russia. And you probably won't like this as well. His popularity grew tenfold since the start of the war/
Mess with the best or die like the rest.
SC-Shield
Profile Joined December 2018
Bulgaria818 Posts
Last Edited: 2022-09-11 08:39:23
September 11 2022 08:37 GMT
#4260
On September 11 2022 17:10 Ardias wrote:
1) “Ukraine will no longer be satisfied with Russia’s “surrender” of Crimea and Donbas, or reparations for the “invasion.” Kyiv, together with Western allies, will seek "complete surrender and demilitarization of the Russian Federation" - Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine Oleksiy Danilov

Well, I guess this war will be long. UA seem to be very eager after their success in Kharkov region.

2) Meanwhile Kadyrov published a speech in his tg channel. It's long, but I'll pick the main point:

"If today or tomorrow changes are not made in the conduct of a special military operation, I will be forced to contact the country's leadership in order to explain to them the situation on earth. She is very interesting, “awesome” I would say. "

Other parts of the speech included promises to return the lost territories, to talk with military correspondents so they would be less critical of the MoD and government, assurances that AFRF would move up to Odessa etc.
So overall it seems that he is trying to take even more leading role in the war and get points for himself out of this defeat.

3) Reports are coming that last working reactor on ZAPP is being shut down.


I have a feeling Kadyrov is so insignificant that from time to time he decides to say something just to stay relevant. I mean the guy was considering retirement, then he explained it was just a "popularity poll". He says his next goal is to break the record of the longest ruling governor of a region. :D
Source: https://www.rferl.org/a/chechnya-kadyrov-backtracks-departure/32020829.html
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