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NOTE: When providing a source, please provide a very brief summary on what it's about and what purpose it adds to the discussion. The supporting statement should clearly explain why the subject is relevant and needs to be discussed. Please follow this rule especially for tweets.
Your supporting statement should always come BEFORE you provide the source. |
Meh, you can get all the rainer saks stuff with less bias and fewer speculations from summaries like understandingwar.org (which I highly recommend since its very good recaps if that is all you are after, but they also link all their sources so you can dig deeper if you want to, or if you question their assesments. Many actual experts refer to their recaps as a source).
Though the speculations in the rainer saks updated do provide some value for people who are interested in that. The real value sources like that bring is while they are not reliable and won't tell you classified information, they often do have the ability to verify such information - but you can't know which of the speculations/information this applies to, so you can never take them on their own at face value(!).
So his posts do provide valuable information, but whenever a disagreement takes place it gets ugly quickly while speedrunning logical fallacy and typical debate bro tactics. His conduct is just awful there imo, no way around it. There is no point in trying to change his mind on anything, I only engage when I see something where I don't want some other user read it and take it at face value. Since he is a very active poster in here, it is easy to assume people mistake him for an authority on the subject, especially given that is exactly how he acts in these situations. No sources, often no argument, just his word. I can only recommend anyone to follow the same approach of never engaging with the goal to convince him of anything.
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As someone who's been playing various strategy games for the majority of my life, the idea sounds strange that Ukraine came up with the Kharkiv offensive just recently.
It was likely considered already months ago along with other options that were all thoroughly planned out, and at this time it was decided to go with this particular one-two punch combination. My guess would be that many plans were continuously updated and optimized as the events during the summer kept unfolding.
The final decision probably came recently, but I'm quite convinced the plan was on the table for at least several weeks, possibly months.
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To be honest, there are certain posters here from Estonia and Poland who come across as a bit of hardliners to say it more gently. I'd say to the point of Russian hysteria. They need to be more level-headed and to realise that their emotions take control of sensible judgement. In other words, not regular Russians are the enemy, it is Kremlin. By screaming at each Russian what happens is the opposite, they may feel more and more inclined to get behind Putin. We really have to draw the line here in my opinion. Let's not equate anti-Kremlin sentiments to xenophobia.
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On September 10 2022 17:58 Ghanburighan wrote:
Our Finnish friends, could someone translate this thread? It looks fascinating, but the author's Finnish greatly surpasses mine or that of Google translate.
1 - The scenario in which Russia loses is considerable. If it was to lose, it would gain a peer opponent on the border (Ukraine), who is conventionally thinking committed to the west. At the same time Russia's plight would be worsened by the changes in the situation at the Baltic Sea.
2 - Also Europe would be no longer dependant on Russia's energy. The strategic focus would change in a very unfavourable way for Russia. All due to Russia's own recklessness. It's quite a paradox that Russia makes the West strong.
3 - Russia's war shows as a genocidal bungle. Russia's might looks minor. It may be thus be time to decisively and without fear to reveal the bluff, take the matter to its end, isolating Putin's Russia.
4 - Russia would not be a superpower in other ways than causing trouble. It lacks the responsibility of a superpower, even though it appeals to its rights. It would be significant that this critical moment is not passed by in Finland. It's crucial to understand the importance of confining Russia and stop the excessive respect of the power.
5 - Tactical openings required for messing things up must be sealed. Russia uses, less strategically, all vulnerabilities it has left at its disposal. They should not be maintained, but limited. Russia in its downfall may become motivated to perform additional muddling.
6 - In example, it would be not paying respect to history to claim that the issue with tourist visas wouldn't be a security issue. Russia has used the visa privilege to organize assassinations and sabotage in Europe. Belittling security concerns would be ignorant in a situation where Russia thinks it's also in war against the West.
7 - As the conflict approaches its boiling point, anomalities in national security should be used. And taken into account in all legislation. It's important to only rule out some very necessary technical things as outside the conflict.
8 - Because Russia has also been promising us surprises, we cannot be naive when it comes to Russian-owned european companies. Decoys should be found in due time and relevant measures taken before risks become concrete.
9 - Managing a strategic change is not easy. It takes big western powers to do so. It's hard to predict the future of a weakning Russia. But that would not seem to be our job. Above all, Finland must be kept safe.
10 - Russia should have remembered that upon starting the war, they placed their status as a superpower on the line.
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Should be accurate enough, hopefully you find it useful.
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So it appears the Russian army has withdrawn from Izyum, or at the very least is completely encircled now.
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Some Ukrainians like Denys Davydov (YouTube) like to call it the "good will gesture" when Russians leave tanks and ammunition behind. It's hilarious.
I'm concerned about referendums though. I don't know if that makes counter-offensives any less viable as there are no comments officially so far?
President Vladimir Putin's ruling United Russia party on Wednesday proposed holding referendums on Nov. 4 to annex territories taken by Moscow's forces in Ukraine.
"It would be right and symbolic" to hold the votes on Nov. 4, Russia's Day of National Unity, party secretary general Andrey Turchak said on its website.
After the votes, he said, "Donetsk, Luhansk and many other Russian cities will finally return to their home port. And the Russian world, now divided by formal borders, will regain its integrity."
...
Source: https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/09/07/russia-ruling-party-proposes-nov-4-annexation-votes-for-occupied-ukraine-a78738
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Thanks Cephiro. Very interesting, indeed. Finnish public debate is becoming interesting.
Edit: the usual suspects are going after my character again, there's no point in this "debating" the moral worth of Ghanburighan.
Instead, ask yourself whether the narrative should be that UA has demonstrated the ability to execute complex offensives combining everything the West has provided, making future territorial liberation a reasonable expectation. The logical inference follows that we in the West should ramp up our support asap to exploit the momentary weakness.
The alternative is punishing UA for its success, claiming that RU will collapse on its own and we don't need to send tanks and other equipment crucial for this success anymore. This would have a high cost for UA and all of Europe as winter comes.
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Russian Federation618 Posts
On September 10 2022 22:07 SC-Shield wrote:Some Ukrainians like Denys Davydov (YouTube) like to call it the "good will gesture" when Russians leave tanks and ammunition behind. It's hilarious. I'm concerned about referendums though. I don't know if that makes counter-offensives any less viable as there are no comments officially so far? Show nested quote +
President Vladimir Putin's ruling United Russia party on Wednesday proposed holding referendums on Nov. 4 to annex territories taken by Moscow's forces in Ukraine.
"It would be right and symbolic" to hold the votes on Nov. 4, Russia's Day of National Unity, party secretary general Andrey Turchak said on its website.
After the votes, he said, "Donetsk, Luhansk and many other Russian cities will finally return to their home port. And the Russian world, now divided by formal borders, will regain its integrity."
...
Source: https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/09/07/russia-ruling-party-proposes-nov-4-annexation-votes-for-occupied-ukraine-a78738
Believe me, "good will gesture" is a meme around here as well. Together with "strikes on the decision-making centers".
Many even among those, who support the war effort, are strongly disapproving of the government. Putin opening the giant
Ferris wheel in Moscow today, and no info about current situation from Ministry of Defence officials in the last few days is angering a lot of people.
As for referendums - they could postpone it indefinetly, if necessary. After whole Balakleya affair I'm not sure if one tower of Kremlin is aware, what others are doing.
On September 10 2022 21:38 Magic Powers wrote:
As someone who's been playing various strategy games for the majority of my life, the idea sounds strange that Ukraine came up with the Kharkiv offensive just recently.
It was likely considered already months ago along with other options that were all thoroughly planned out, and at this time it was decided to go with this particular one-two punch combination. My guess would be that many plans were continuously updated and optimized as the events during the summer kept unfolding.
The final decision probably came recently, but I'm quite convinced the plan was on the table for at least several weeks, possibly months.
Idea itself of course was in the air, supply lines to Izyum, Balakleya supply depots, Kupyansk rail hub etc. But you need necessary forces to pull off the idea. My point was that Ukraine rapidly pulled forces from reserves and rotation elements at the presented opportunity, and wasn't gathering them in advance, like in Kherson area, and these forces were able to execute the plan (it's one thing to have a plan lying in general office, the other is to make sure all troops are familiar with it and ready to perform). Plus, as I said, they pulled stuff like that before, albeit on a smaller scale, on exactly the same scenario.
Though of course I may be wrong, it's just my (and some other people) assesment based on information presented.
Also, regarding Kherson offensive being a feint (forgot to address it in previous posts) - I would agree on that, if forces from Balakleya were pulled there, or to some other parts of the front. Not on fucking showcase on the other side of the globe (people here, in Russia, who learn about it, can't stop to be amazed at hubris and incompetence of those, who were responsible for that desision).
Yes, can confirm, Izyum is being abandoned, AFRF troops and civilian refugees are withdrawing behind the Oskol river. To the SE AFU crossed Siversky Donets, there is fighting south of Lyman.
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Russian Federation618 Posts
Question with Strelkov/Girkin is interesting one. He is former FSB officer himself, and was directly involved in the events of 2014 in Ukraine. He could have a lot of dirt on LDPR leadership as well as government officials, as well as some connections in the FSB, so this may be the thing that keeping him afloat. Plus his popularity, Kremlin may not want to make a martyr for the radicals out of him.
He isn't allowed to the LDPR or Russian-controlled territory of Ukraine though. He tried to volunteer for the LDPR forces, but was arrested on the border with Ukraine. The charge was for the fake passport, but I think our government wants to keep him away from his supporters.
Less popular people may be less lucky.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-3
Russian blogger Boytsovyi Kot Murz, mentioned there, who is critical of Russian military and government even more than Strelkov, had investigation started on him (he told about it in his blog)
https://kenigtiger.livejournal.com/2167064.html
Messages in screenshot are about police investigating his Moscow adress of registration, as well as questioning his mother about him. Problem with arresting him is that he is serving within LPR militia, 14th Territorial Defence Battalion, repairing UAVs and communication assets and distributing volunteer aid to LPR forces. So he is a bit hard to arrest for local Moscow police.
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On September 10 2022 22:17 Ghanburighan wrote:
Thanks Cephiro. Very interesting, indeed. Finnish public debate is becoming interesting.
Edit: the usual suspects are going after my character again, there's no point in this "debating" the moral worth of Ghanburighan.
Instead, ask yourself whether the narrative should be that UA has demonstrated the ability to execute complex offensives combining everything the West has provided, making future territorial liberation a reasonable expectation. The logical inference follows that we in the West should ramp up our support asap to exploit the momentary weakness.
The alternative is punishing UA for its success, claiming that RU will collapse on its own and we don't need to send tanks and other equipment crucial for this success anymore. This would have a high cost for UA and all of Europe as winter comes.
Or you could accept that after facing similar criticism from multiple people on multiple occacions, it is time to reflect on your behaviour and change something instead of trying to deflect again. Because the way you are acting in this thread is very unlikely to ever convince anyone who disagrees with you and instead might drive them the other direction. In my opinion, you are actively hurting your own cause with your behaviour, and even a slight change in your attitude would go a long way in making the dialogue in here more productive and also more effective instead of you just preaching to the choir.
And before you try to spin this again as poor eastern europe vs the arrogant west, this is not about your moral worth. I am sure we all accept your as a value human being here, it just happens that you can't handle disagreement. And if you really want to help ukraine with your posts in here, then you need to work on that for the above mentioned reason.
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Russian Federation618 Posts
On September 10 2022 23:04 JimmiC wrote:Show nested quote +On September 10 2022 22:57 Ardias wrote:Question with Strelkov/Girkin is interesting one. He is former FSB officer himself, and was directly involved in the events of 2014 in Ukraine. He could have a lot of dirt on LDPR leadership as well as government officials, as well as some connections in the FSB, so this may be the thing that keeping him afloat. Plus his popularity, Kremlin may not want to make a martyr for the radicals out of him. He isn't allowed to the LDPR or Russian-controlled territory of Ukraine though. He tried to volunteer for the LDPR forces, but was arrested on the border with Ukraine. The charge was for the fake passport, but I think our government wants to keep him away from his supporters. Less popular people may be less lucky. https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-3Russian blogger Boytsovyi Kot Murz, mentioned there, who is critical of Russian military and government even more than Strelkov, had investigation started on him (he told about it in his blog) https://kenigtiger.livejournal.com/2167064.htmlMessages in screenshot are about police investigating his Moscow adress of registration, as well as questioning his mother about him. Problem with arresting him is that he is serving within LPR militia, 14th Territorial Defence Battalion, repairing UAVs and communication assets and distributing volunteer aid to LPR forces. So he is a bit hard to arrest for local Moscow police. That is interesting, he must be quite the figure. I would have thought the multiple billionares that have passed would have had like private armies (or maybe they were just naive that they would be targets) and they were able to be gotten to so I think your presumption that it is information or fear of martyrdom makes sense. I think that is good news rather than that Putin is planting seeds about taking an even more hardline approach.
Oligarchs in Russia don't have actual power to hold private armies ("Wagner" is one of a kind, and it's not simply personal Prigozhin's army, since it works under close supervision of Russian External Reconnaissance Service), and the war was a surprise for the most of them, hence their financial losses and resentment towards it.
I doubt that Putin would take any kind of hardline approach. The were many options and necessities to do it before. It seems more likely that he would be trying to struck some deal with the West. But I doubt it would get him internal support now. UA won't be stopping with this success, pro-Western Russians would still hate Putin for the war itself, and pro-war Russians would consider this as the betrayal of those who are and were fighting in the war.
Also there is finally an official statment of our MoD:
"In order to achieve the goals of the SMO, a decision was made to regroup troops in the areas of Balakleya and Izyum in order to build up efforts in the Donetsk direction. Within three days, an operation was carried out to curtail and transfer the Izyum-Balakliya group of troops to the territory of the DPR."
Well, it's not a "good will gesture" at least. Still, it seems that AFRF is abandoning most of the Kharkov region.
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I really want a book with just the official explanations for big retreats over all human history.
This should have great comedy value regardless of the century. Hell, even the cavemen probably had the greatest of reasons they later told each other at the campfire on why they retreated from an area.
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Good to see that Russians never change.
"We are not routed. We are strategically retreating, while leaving ammo and vehicles behind."
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On September 10 2022 23:50 JimmiC wrote:Show nested quote +On September 10 2022 23:21 Ardias wrote:On September 10 2022 23:04 JimmiC wrote:On September 10 2022 22:57 Ardias wrote:Question with Strelkov/Girkin is interesting one. He is former FSB officer himself, and was directly involved in the events of 2014 in Ukraine. He could have a lot of dirt on LDPR leadership as well as government officials, as well as some connections in the FSB, so this may be the thing that keeping him afloat. Plus his popularity, Kremlin may not want to make a martyr for the radicals out of him. He isn't allowed to the LDPR or Russian-controlled territory of Ukraine though. He tried to volunteer for the LDPR forces, but was arrested on the border with Ukraine. The charge was for the fake passport, but I think our government wants to keep him away from his supporters. Less popular people may be less lucky. https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-3Russian blogger Boytsovyi Kot Murz, mentioned there, who is critical of Russian military and government even more than Strelkov, had investigation started on him (he told about it in his blog) https://kenigtiger.livejournal.com/2167064.htmlMessages in screenshot are about police investigating his Moscow adress of registration, as well as questioning his mother about him. Problem with arresting him is that he is serving within LPR militia, 14th Territorial Defence Battalion, repairing UAVs and communication assets and distributing volunteer aid to LPR forces. So he is a bit hard to arrest for local Moscow police. That is interesting, he must be quite the figure. I would have thought the multiple billionares that have passed would have had like private armies (or maybe they were just naive that they would be targets) and they were able to be gotten to so I think your presumption that it is information or fear of martyrdom makes sense. I think that is good news rather than that Putin is planting seeds about taking an even more hardline approach. Oligarchs in Russia don't have actual power to hold private armies ("Wagner" is one of a kind, and it's not simply personal Prigozhin's army, since it works under close supervision of Russian External Reconnaissance Service), and the war was a surprise for the most of them, hence their financial losses and resentment towards it. I doubt that Putin would take any kind of hardline approach. The were many options and necessities to do it before. It seems more likely that he would be trying to struck some deal with the West. But I doubt it would get him internal support now. UA won't be stopping with this success, pro-Western Russians would still hate Putin for the war itself, and pro-war Russians would consider this as the betrayal of those who are and were fighting in the war. Also there is finally an official statment of our MoD: "In order to achieve the goals of the SMO, a decision was made to regroup troops in the areas of Balakleya and Izyum in order to build up efforts in the Donetsk direction. Within three days, an operation was carried out to curtail and transfer the Izyum-Balakliya group of troops to the territory of the DPR." Well, it's not a "good will gesture" at least. Still, it seems that AFRF is abandoning most of the Kharkov region. I would have thought with the amount of money they had and how cheap labour/security is they would all have "security" teams made up of 10-20 armed guards. But perhaps that is just me watching to many movies. I do think there was a extreme amount of hubris from everyone who "committed suicide" after the first one because I would be getting my ass out or at the very least hiring myself a shit load of protection. Anyone have an update map of the current territory? It sounds like it has changed significantly again.
You can always follow https://liveuamap.com/en
They are recoloring slowly, but in general from their news updates you get a decent picture.
It is the usual UA focussed media bias, but it is quite servicable.
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Hey guys! Been a while since I've posted, but I was lurking in this thread almost daily anyway. Thank you for asking if I was okay. With the latest news from the front it feels much better, surely far from perfection, but better in comparison to what was a month ago. We had to start a new life basically from scratch, although not gonna to complain since there is a hope to return to homeland in Kharkiv very soon. Currently the city is still getting attacked with MLRS and S300 on a daily basis from Belgorod, shelling is random and always to civilian buildings/housing/schools, this must be stopped.
So what we know for sure is that execution of counter-offensive was excellent as Izyum, Balakliya, Kupyansk, Lyman are liberated, russian forces are abandoning Vovchansk as well. Critical logistic chain is no longer functional for russian forces.in this area, Kupyansk was very important. Ukrainian forced did all the job with lightening speed and precision that everyone is surprised!
It wasn't a planned retreat or scheduled manuvour by russian forces as kremlin official will try to sell, they simply abandoned lots of equipment, heavy armor/other vehicles and many storages with stacked ammo. Code brown. And surely no panic :D
Got some interesting reports from the battlefield, most of those are yet to be confirmed, so everything should be accepted with skepticism. In general - Russian army is collapsing in Kharkiv direction. Got rumors about UAF already entering Lysychansk and fighting in the area of Donetsk Airport. In the next few days we will know more and we got to keep looking at the Donetsk local police forces, it's a great indicator that the house of cards is falling when they start to flee in masse.
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On September 11 2022 00:39 Dav1oN wrote:
Hey guys! Been a while since I've posted, but I was lurking in this thread almost daily anyway. Thank you for asking if I was okay. With the latest news from the front it feels much better, surely far from perfection, but better in comparison to what was a month ago. We had to start a new life basically from scratch, although not gonna to complain since there is a hope to return to homeland in Kharkiv very soon. Currently the city is still getting attacked with MLRS and S300 on a daily basis from Belgorod, shelling is random and always to civilian buildings/housing/schools, this must be stopped.
So what we know for sure is that execution of counter-offensive was excellent as Izyum, Balakliya, Kupyansk, Lyman are liberated, russian forces are abandoning Vovchansk as well. With lightening speed that everyone is surprised! It wasn't a planned retreat or scheduled manuvour by russian forces, they simply abandoned lots of equipment, heavy armor/other vehicles and many storages with stacked ammo. Code brown. And surely no panic :D
Got some interesting reports from the battlefield, most of those are yet to be condirmed, so everything should be accepted with skepticism. In general - Russian army is collapsing in Kharkiv direction. Got rumors about UAF already entering Lysychansk and fighting in the area of Donetsk Airport. In the next few days we will know more and we got to keep looking at the Donetsk local police forces, we will have a goos indicator that the house of cards is falling when they start to flee in masse.
Glad to hear you are doing good, I was getting a little bit worried after not hearing anything from you in a while. Not worried as in I was losing sleep over it, so no need to feel bad about not updating but you know... its is very nice to know that you are still kicking 
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I'm seeing the same thing about fighting near lysychansk and that lyman is just taken as well. Not a total collapse as Russia seems to have stopped Ukraine from taking the targeted railhub at kupyansk but at the cost of everything it supplied.
Partisans in melitipol are raising the Ukrainian flag over buildings. Vehicles being driven into rivers finding out that they can't make it all the way across. Madness and chaos are abound.
Great to see you safe dav1on was worried for you for a while.
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EPT
