EPTA Military building has been hit, who or what it housed for the Russian is anyone's guess.
Russo-Ukrainian War Thread - Page 212
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{CC}StealthBlue
United States41117 Posts
A Military building has been hit, who or what it housed for the Russian is anyone's guess. | ||
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RvB
Netherlands6326 Posts
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Sent.
Poland9336 Posts
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{CC}StealthBlue
United States41117 Posts
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Sent.
Poland9336 Posts
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mahrgell
Germany3943 Posts
On September 11 2022 02:42 RvB wrote: Any thoughts on what this means for Putin? Even Russian propaganda can't hide the scale of this defeat. "it means for Putin" - if your refer to "does it change its tsar like rule" - No, not a bit. He did a good job in the past to make sure there is nothing that could change that. Does it royally ruin his plans? - Yes quite a lot. They lost basically all control in the Kharkiv province. As it looks right now, RU won't even be able to maintain 100% control of the Luhansk province. And now it looks like they may even suddenly struggle in areas in the Donetsk regions they controlled before the war. This is double bad for Russia. For once it ruins their back door success claim of "liberating Luhansk and Donetsk" because in Luhansk they lose their claimed victory of 100% control and in Donetsk they may even have to explain how in the world they managed to actually lose territory (and if it is only that the airport moves from controlled to contested state). Which then reduces the victory claim to basically only the crimea land bridge. And the second bad angle is that at the same time, it ruins their next administrative step of staging referendums in those regions. Kherson referendum was cancelled /"postponed" already. Kharkiv there is nothing left. Luhansk they can no longer claim to have asked "entire Luhansk". And Donetsk isn't looking great either. Add to this the upcoming winter, which may make large offensive operations impossible (especially for Russia with their vulnerable support lines), this is simply an awful look. Having the front freeze while you can claim success at home might feel okay. But now this claim is questioned heavily even in Russia. And freezing this status quo would be painful. | ||
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maybenexttime
Poland5914 Posts
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zeo
Serbia6344 Posts
On September 11 2022 02:42 RvB wrote: Any thoughts on what this means for Putin? Even Russian propaganda can't hide the scale of this defeat. Russian sources haven't even tried to play down this blunder. But the general mood is fury at the silk glove approach the Russian forces have been using, as well as disbelief that 50.000 Russian troops have been at war games in the far east with China while the government in Kiev was getting ready to attack with their own 50k into the Kharkov region. The evacuation and safety of the civilian populations of those Kharkov towns is paramount at the moment regardless of what is being planned next. I don't think anyone is under any illusion anymore that Russia can achieve anything with the 80k troops deployed in Ukraine since the start, outnumbered from 3-1 to 5-1 on multiple fronts and half their frontline forces being poorly equipped LNR/DNR troops. We might get an actual declaration of war and mobilization sooner rather than later. After which Russia will start systematically destroying electricity/internet/communications in the whole of Ukraine and this war will get much worse for the civilian population in Kiev government controlled areas. Escalations are much more likely than everything 'cooling down'. (Edit: yes, a lot of calls for mobilization) As for Putin, there will be immense pressure on him to act, drastically. It's his shitshow after all. Maybe in 20 years we will all find out what was the point of deploying so few troops. Yes, Russian losses during the last few days have been minimal given the circumstances while the Ukrainians have lost a lot of men, especially in Nikolaev/Kherson. But this doesn't mean that much when looking at the big picture because Kiev is obviously ready to throw whatever it takes into the fray to get results, while the Russian command is living in its own imagination land where Ukraine just gives up after it loses 300k, or 400k or 1million men. Because that won't happen. | ||
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Sermokala
United States14220 Posts
1. Silk glove approach? What have you read/ what are people talking about the approach russia has been using? What escalation have they been saving for strategic level attacks like you've been describing? Ie strategic bombers more cruise missiles etc. 2. Does the sphere you talk with say that there are only 80k Russian troops deployed in Ukraine since the start? That just seems like an extremely low number is that separate from the LNR/DNR troops you are referring to being half the frontline forces? Also 50k troops being in Chinese war games being soon to be moved to the front seems pretty terrifying if they've only had like 80k regular russian troops in Ukraine. Have they been saying how much was moved off the front to be shipped over to china? 3. Do you have more about the talk about mobilization? I don't get any information on what that talk is like in my spheres. what we've been told is that it would take months to form any units and would be deeply unpopular. 4. What information have you been seeing about how russian loses have been minimal, given the circumstances vs large Ukranian losses? What circumstances are they describing? | ||
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SC-Shield
Bulgaria908 Posts
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KwarK
United States44449 Posts
On September 11 2022 03:59 zeo wrote: fury at the silk glove approach the Russian forces have been using The old "I wasn't trying". It's a classic for a reason. The only problem is, of course, that they were. | ||
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Broetchenholer
Germany1970 Posts
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Gorsameth
Netherlands22705 Posts
On September 11 2022 04:28 Sermokala wrote:1. Silk glove approach? What have you read/ what are people talking about the approach russia has been using? What escalation have they been saving for strategic level attacks like you've been describing? Ie strategic bombers more cruise missiles etc. I assume he meant this still being a 'special operation' and not an all out war.Tho that matters in terms of conscription, I haven't been getting the idea that Russia is holding back on equipment because 'its not a real war'. | ||
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maybenexttime
Poland5914 Posts
On September 11 2022 03:59 zeo wrote: Russian sources haven't even tried to play down this blunder. But the general mood is fury at the silk glove approach the Russian forces have been using, as well as disbelief that 50.000 Russian troops have been at war games in the far east with China while the government in Kiev was getting ready to attack with their own 50k into the Kharkov region. The evacuation and safety of the civilian populations of those Kharkov towns is paramount at the moment regardless of what is being planned next. I don't think anyone is under any illusion anymore that Russia can achieve anything with the 80k troops deployed in Ukraine since the start, outnumbered from 3-1 to 5-1 on multiple fronts and half their frontline forces being poorly equipped LNR/DNR troops. We might get an actual declaration of war and mobilization sooner rather than later. After which Russia will start systematically destroying electricity/internet/communications in the whole of Ukraine and this war will get much worse for the civilian population in Kiev government controlled areas. Escalations are much more likely than everything 'cooling down'. (Edit: yes, a lot of calls for mobilization) As for Putin, there will be immense pressure on him to act, drastically. It's his shitshow after all. Maybe in 20 years we will all find out what was the point of deploying so few troops. Yes, Russian losses during the last few days have been minimal given the circumstances while the Ukrainians have lost a lot of men, especially in Nikolaev/Kherson. But this doesn't mean that much when looking at the big picture because Kiev is obviously ready to throw whatever it takes into the fray to get results, while the Russian command is living in its own imagination land where Ukraine just gives up after it loses 300k, or 400k or 1million men. Because that won't happen. Perhaps if they focused on fighting the Ukrainian military instead of butchering the civilians... | ||
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KwarK
United States44449 Posts
On September 11 2022 05:08 Gorsameth wrote: I assume he meant this still being a 'special operation' and not an all out war. Tho that matters in terms of conscription, I haven't been getting the idea that Russia is holding back on equipment because 'its not a real war'. And it's not like Ukraine doesn't have plenty of its own shit that they could toss at targets within Russian borders if they so chose. They've been holding back to a greater extent than Russia. Russia has been freely attacking infrastructure and civilian targets this entire time whereas Ukraine, correctly identifying that they're answerable to their western backers, have refused to destroy schools in Russian cities in retaliation. Escalation to total war here would not be favourable to Russia. There's only really one card they have left to play, the nuclear option, and they can't play it. | ||
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StasisField
United States1086 Posts
On September 11 2022 05:15 maybenexttime wrote: Perhaps if they focused on fighting the Ukrainian military instead of butchering the civilians... Russia's a fascist regime. Butchering civilians is what fascists think warfare is. | ||
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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SC-Shield
Bulgaria908 Posts
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zeo
Serbia6344 Posts
On September 11 2022 04:28 Sermokala wrote: so I've got a lot of questions. I want you to know that I'm not challenging it directly I'm just asking for more context on a few things. 1. Silk glove approach? What have you read/ what are people talking about the approach russia has been using? What escalation have they been saving for strategic level attacks like you've been describing? Ie strategic bombers more cruise missiles etc. 2. Does the sphere you talk with say that there are only 80k Russian troops deployed in Ukraine since the start? That just seems like an extremely low number is that separate from the LNR/DNR troops you are referring to being half the frontline forces? Also 50k troops being in Chinese war games being soon to be moved to the front seems pretty terrifying if they've only had like 80k regular russian troops in Ukraine. Have they been saying how much was moved off the front to be shipped over to china? 3. Do you have more about the talk about mobilization? I don't get any information on what that talk is like in my spheres. what we've been told is that it would take months to form any units and would be deeply unpopular. 4. What information have you been seeing about how russian loses have been minimal, given the circumstances vs large Ukranian losses? What circumstances are they describing? No, of course. There is much much more to this than what I wrote but these are grievances that everyone has had since February. And I was responding in that context. I think I answered all your questions out of order below, don't know how coherent it will all come out but its readable... When this all started Russia deployed 80k troops and along with the 40-50k DNR/LNR forces that's basically been it in regards to force size maybe jumping to 90k during specific offensives. The first phase can be split into three separate campaigns with separate goals, the south with mobile groups systematically taking town by town and consolidating gains in depth while taking a Dnieper bridgehead and Mariupol. Second, the Donbass theater was basically DNR/LNR infantry supplemented with RF heavy weapons pinning down the Ukrainian army so they couldn't redeploy south. And whatever the fuck that was in the North with Kiev, in depth, highly mobile mechanized infantry bypassing population centers and trying to put pressure on Kiev either to force a quick collapse or give time for Russian artillery to set up in the Donbass. And thats the thing, that whole Northern operation was thirty thousand troops max, there was no way in hell. No possible way they could take a city as big as Kiev with that force. Keep in mind that Ukraine has committed fifty thousand to what is happening in Kharkov now. The talks about low troop numbers started as soon as the general Russian population realized just how small the 'Special Military Operation' force really was compared to what the Ukrainians already had deployed. They were outnumbered 3-1 very quickly but all this was masked by the relative gains being made. The first month was when the vast majority of Russian losses came. In depth penetration behind enemy lines under heavy weapons fire with close combat fighting. After they took all that they could with that they pulled out of the north and basically started a no close contact campaign with mass artillery slowly grinding down the endless stream of men and western weapons coming in which culminated with the slow push and taking of the Lysichansk salient. This tactic was defended with the statement that they were saving Russian military lives and didn't want to take unnecessary losses but it didn't bring the end of the war closer by one inch. 'Well we are just waiting for Europe to pressure Ukraine into conceding', 'we have all the time in the World, just wait until Hans starts freezing' you might have read or heard. Obviously Kiev was ready to take the L's because they knew Russia couldn't steamroll them with this force. They don't have the numbers to exploit weaknesses, expand buffer zones and encircle Ukrainian groupings and the NATO advisors know this. They fundamentally don't have the numbers not because of losses but because of a set number of troops the just decided to have at any time. After Lysichansk and O group leaving, there were people saying that Russia was basically fighting a proxy war in Donbass. It was the Donbass Republics with infantry on the front line with Wagner and the Chechens, the regular Russian army there as heavy weapons in the background. The regular Russian army is mostly deployed in Kherson and the Zaporozhe front, I wouldn't be surprised if they knew how big both the offensives would be but just decided to send their army to what is more important for them, the bridgehead over the Dnieper while leaving Kharkov to fate. Yes, the term being used is silk gloves. The Russian army is one million people, say half of that is people that do the fighting to put it simply. So you start one of the biggest military shitstorms since Vietnam with 16% of your available forces? You purposely don't target civilian infrastructure, you come in with big talk about how you aren't just going to kill everyone scored Earth like the Americans and friends do. Not targeting critical railway infrastructure, bridges, electricity, food, internet. You take over nuclear power plants and send the electricity to Ukraine. You have tens of thousands of troops at the border of Ukraine that you won't use because 'its against the constitution' to deploy the Russian Army outside of Russia, because... its a Special Military Operation remember? You ask any Russian what they think about my last paragraph and 7 times out of 10 you will get the answer that they are pussyfooting it, 'we were always going to be painted as monsters so who the fuck cares anymore?' 'Mobilize, mobilize... see? Didn't I tell you we should have done this months ago? There are literally 100k former soldiers and volunteers that are begging Putin to just arm them and send them to Ukraine, what the fuck are we waiting for?' | ||
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Nyxisto
Germany6287 Posts
I think the lesson when this is hopefully over will be how Ukraine at every level has used the free flow of information to their advantage, to document what atrocities are being committed, rallying support as well as for concrete military intelligence and organize the entire population from the bottom up. People shouldn't be surprised that Russia has no momentum or mass mobilization. A kleptocracy doesn't trust its own people, it's not a competitive form of government, it's just scheming and intimidation. | ||
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