NOTE: When providing a source, please provide a very brief summary on what it's about and what purpose it adds to the discussion. The supporting statement should clearly explain why the subject is relevant and needs to be discussed. Please follow this rule especially for tweets.
Your supporting statement should always come BEFORE you provide the source.
On September 10 2022 02:20 Artesimo wrote: For real, how can you look at someone calling it 'good improvisation' and take 'they call them lucky' away from that...? He just acknowledged ukraine to fluidly adapt to a weakness they possibly spotted with a probing attack. That would be a more impressive than exercising some long in advance drawn out plan.
Disregarding who might be right here, I feel like Ardias has the best track record out of all of us here when it comes to actually bringing sources whenever you disagree with him while also doing a far better job at critically engaging with them than most of the rest. And yet he keeps having to contest with accusations of russian propaganda, at this point I don't think you get away with just handwaving his stuff as 'russian propaganda'. If you accuse him of that, at least match him with some sources.
If its some 0 Post new account sure, but he is an established poster in this thread.
Improvisation and "getting lucky" are basically two sides of the same coin.
There's a reason why the people responsible are still staying silent about this. But we shouldn't be filling the void with impossible nonsense. Just look at the pictures, you can see an operation that must have required planning for a very long time. There's more to come.
Just wait and reliable information will be made public once it's no longer endangering lives. Speculation only makes the situation worse for Ukrainians who depend on the optics of this early push to demonstrate to Europe and the US that their aid is worth it while the weather cools.
On September 10 2022 02:20 Artesimo wrote: For real, how can you look at someone calling it 'good improvisation' and take 'they call them lucky' away from that...? He just acknowledged ukraine to fluidly adapt to a weakness they possibly spotted with a probing attack. That would be a more impressive than exercising some long in advance drawn out plan.
Disregarding who might be right here, I feel like Ardias has the best track record out of all of us here when it comes to actually bringing sources whenever you disagree with him while also doing a far better job at critically engaging with them than most of the rest. And yet he keeps having to contest with accusations of russian propaganda, at this point I don't think you get away with just handwaving his stuff as 'russian propaganda'. If you accuse him of that, at least match him with some sources.
If its some 0 Post new account sure, but he is an established poster in this thread.
Improvisation and "getting lucky" are basically two sides of the same coin.
There's a reason why the people responsible are still staying silent about this. But we shouldn't be filling the void with impossible nonsense. Just look at the pictures, you can see an operation that must have required planning for a very long time. There's more to come.
Just wait and reliable information will be made public once it's no longer endangering lives. Speculation only makes the situation worse for Ukrainians who depend on the optics of this early push to demonstrate to Europe and the US that their aid is worth it while the weather cools.
Exactly. From everything i know, you don't "improvise" a combined arms attack with tens of thousands of soldiers. However, you can have a lot of different plans prepared for different situations. This is a forum of strategy gamers. We should be able to recognize that a good plan is flexible, has multiple ways to adapt to whatever is happening in reality, and has a lot of different follow-ups.
Edit: And if your plan puts you in a position to exploit an enemy weakness, that is not "getting lucky", that is having a good plan. A good plan is able to exploit most possible enemy weaknesses. This doesn't have to be the only one they prepared for, it is just the one that manifested.
The reason for my post was Kherson being a feint all along was called into question / the implied claim that Ukraine always planned to break through at that location. And the still completely unfounded accusation of russian propaganda (followed up by the admission that it is to soon to tell anything for sure...).
I have no problem with the idea that this was some big brain masterplan, my problem was the immediate accusation of russian propaganda that makes any good faith discussion hard, and had a bogus reasoning. If your experience and skill is the reason why your adaptation to changed circumstances pays off, then its not luck... That is skill and experience. Luck is always part of success, so sure. If people want to pretend that improvisation and luck are 2 sides of the same coin, then that coin has 3 sides and a plan succeeding is also on there because you know: you also need luck. We probably all want ukraine to win, but that is no reason to get so insecure and defensive whenever someone suggests that something is not as grand as others claim.
I appreciate Ardias posts a lot because they give a different perspective and bring something that keeps this from turning into a total echo chamber and is often not easy to find without having to also deal with a mountain of russia propaganda and sift through that. Engaging with his posts in such a 0 effort manner that is also very toxic to the dialogue is simply not something that should be acceptable.
I'd also argue that what one means with 'improvisation', especially in a military context, is very subjective and different from person to person, but lets not get bogged down in that... We can worry about trying to understand the other person once we can handle them disagreements with arguments.
This is the single largest advance by Ukraine since the beginning of the war. If this pace can be maintained, all the lost territory could be reclaimed within months. Although it's hard to tell how likely this scenario is, it can no longer be ruled out. The total recent progress by Ukraine and complete lack of Russian progress seems like good enough evidence that Ukraine is now in the early winning stage of the war.
Rainer Saks update: he confirms the encirclement of Izyum and predicts the collapse of RU resistance near Kherson. Further notes on RU propaganda fails in the face of defeat which might lead to instability.
Summary of September 10
- The Ukrainian offensive continued yesterday near Kharkiv and Kherson. At Izyum, the Russian units are losing their ability to show resistance. Russian offensive attempts in the Donbas continue, but with decreasing intensity. The Russian army is approaching the threshold of its biggest loss since World War II. - To the north of Kharkiv, the Russian command is trying to keep artillery active, especially by firing at the city of Kharkiv. Attempts to attack cannot be made, the only thing left is to bombard the city. With this, military leaders simply sign their court decisions of the future. - The Izyum group has lost the ability to organize organized resistance north of the city. The troops stationed in the southern direction are still able to provide artillery fire. It seems that the leaders of the Izyum group are not able to organize the troops such that they show resistance in the direction of the Ukrainian offensive, or it has been forbidden. Ukraine's advance from north of Izyum has completely cut off the group's supply routes. With lighter vehicles, you could still leave via village roads, which some make us of. Russian units can still fight battles around the city of Kupyansk and prevent Ukraine's rapid advance towards the north, towards the Russian border. But obviously, this is not the direction of Ukraine's primary offensive at the moment either. The Ukrainians are approaching Izyum from the north and west, all the while reducing the area under Russian control. A very large number of prisoners have been taken and a large number of armored vehicles have been captured. The Russian units here are not badly equipped at all, judging by the pictures coming in from the area. Obviously, the management of the Russian side has collapsed and cannot decide how to solve the problem. The pictures from RU showing the movement of Russian reserves to the Kupyansk region represent pitiful short convoys of trucks - nothing will change from this. Talks about equipping the group with helicopters are also subterfuge. It may be that some senior officers were simply evacuated so that they would not be taken prisoner. In addition, Russian propaganda has fallen into a total trap - the success of the Ukrainian counter-offensive is publicly denied, while information about the military disaster is spreading in Russian social media at a tremendous speed. This is the most dangerous outcome of this battle for Russian political leadership. The Izyum group is thus surrounded, and in the coming days, Ukraine will deal with its liquidation. It no longer includes 10,000 men either, because the losses have been insanely high. - In the direction of Kramatorsk/Siversk, the Russian side has conducted two reconnaissance battles, but the initiative is shifting towards Ukraine, and there is information that the Ukrainian army has started moving towards the city of Lyman. It would also cut off the last inter-village roads, which were supposed to be used to evacuate from Izyum. - In the direction of Bakhmut, Russian units have managed to organize around four offensive attempts, but without success. Energy is clearly lacking. - Near the city of Donetsk and to the south in Donbas, one or two offensive attempts are also made every day, but without success. - On the southern front, the artillery duel is predominantly dominated by the Ukrainian side. They clearly select the targets they want to destroy. The area around Melitopol continues to receive hits on a daily basis, and the intensity of partisan activity is also increasing. - In the Kherson region, Ukrainian units continue to methodically destroy the capabilities of Russian units, the losses of the Russian side have increased. Supply routes are under Ukrainian control. The Russian leadership probably won't allow the troops here to retreat either, which is why the Ukrainian side can quickly and sparingly work towards their neutralization. The Ukrainian side is also pressing on the front and moving forward every day, trying to cut the Russian army group in two and reach the city of Kherson. The Russian side is still able to offer organized resistance, but here too there is more and more information about desertion and surrender of soldiers. Yesterday, news spread that 1,500 Kadorov fighters were brought in near Kherson. This unit is there to "motivate" Russian troops, rather than add anything militarily. During the next week, one could expect major Russian resistance to break here as well. The Russian military command faces a moment of truth. By now it should be clear that there are no major combat-capable reserves in Russia. There is still an opportunity to gather something from all over Russia but more than 80% of the Russian ground forces are currently involved in Ukraine. If the remaining units were brought in, all the remaining areas would be unprotected and the training of conscripts would end. But we shouldn't rush ahead of events yet. Ukraine must first complete the operations in Izyum and Kherson - then larger conclusions can be drawn.
Original: 10 septembri kokkuvõte - Ukraina pealetung jätkus eile nii Harkivi kui Hersoni juures. Izjumi juures on vene üksused kaotamas vastupanuvõimet. Vene pealetungikatsed Donbassis küll jätkuvad, aga langeva intensiivsusega. Vene armee on jõudmas oma II MS järgse aja suurima kaotuse lävele. - Harkivi põhjasuunal üritab vene väejuhatus hoida suurtükiväge aktiivsena,, eriti tulistades Harkivi linna. Pealetungi katseid teha ei suudeta, jäänud on veel ainult linna pommitamine. Sellega kirjutavad sõjaväejuhid lihtsalt oma kohtuotsusele alla. - Izjumi grupeering on kaotanud võime korraldada organiseeritud vastupanu Izjumi linnast põhjas. Lõunasuunal paiknevad väed suudavad veel anda suurtükituld Tundub, et Izjumi grupeeringu juhtid ei suuda siin piknevaid vägesid korraldada ka Ukraina pealetungi vastastele suundadele abiks, või on see siis ära keelatud. Ukraina edasitung Izjumist põhjasuunas on täiesti ära lõiganud grupeeringu varustusteed. Kergemate sõidukitega saaks veel mööda külavaheteid lahkuda, mida mõned ka teevad. Vene üksused suudavad veel pidada lahinguid Kupjanski linna ümbrsuses ning takistada Ukraina kiiret edasiliikumist põhja, vene piiri suunas. Aga ilmsesti ei ole see hetkel ka Ukraina pealöögi suund. Ukrainlased lähenevad Izjumile põhjast ja läänest ning suruvad kogu aeg vene kontrolli all olevat ala väiksemaks. Võetud on väga suur hulk vange ning hõivatud suures koguses soomustehnikat. Siinsed vene üksused ei ole üldsegi halvasti varustatud, kui otsustada nende piltide järgi, mis piirkonnast laekuvad. Ilmsesti on vene poole juhtimine kokku kukkunud ja ei suudeta otsustada, kuidas tekkinud probleemi lahendada. Kaadrid vene reservide liikumisest Kupjanski piirkonda kujutavad endast haledaid veoautode lühikesi kolonne - sellega ei muuda mitte midagi. Ka jutud helikopteritega grupeeringu varustamisest on häma. Võib olla lihtsalt evakueeriti mõned kõrgemad ohvitserid, et need ei langeks vangi. Lisaks on vene propaganda langenud totaalsesse lõksu - eitatakse avalikult Ukraina pealetungi, samas levib vene sots meedias info sõjalisest katastroofist tohutu kiirusega. See on selle lahingu kõige ohtlikum tulemus vene polltilise juhtkonna jaoks. Izjumi grupeering on seega ümber piiratud ja ukraina lähipäevil tegeleb selle likvideerimisega. Enam ei kuulu sellesse ka 10 000 meest, sest kaotused on olnud meeletult suured. - Kramatorski/Siverski suunal on vene pool küll teinud kaks luurelahingut, kuid initsiatiiv on Ukraina poole kaldumas ning on infot, et Ukraina sõjavägi alustas Lõmani linna suunas liikumist. See lõikaks ära ka viimased külavaheteed, mis pidi saaks Izjumist lahkuda - Bahmuti suunal on vene üksused suutnud veel korraldada ca 4 pealetungikatset, aga edutult. Energiat selgelt napib. - Donetski linna juures ja lõuna pool Donbassis üritatakse samuti veel iga päev teha üks/kaks pealetungikatset, aga edutult. - Lõunarindel on suurtükiduell ülekaaluga Ukraina poolel. Nemad valivad selgelt sihtmärke, mida soovivad hävitada. Melitopoli ümbrus saab jätkuvalt igapäevaselt tabamusi ja partisani tegevuse intensiivsus on ka kasvav. - Hersoni piirkonnas jätkavad Ukraina üksused metoodiliselt vene üksuste võimete hävitamist, vene poole kaotused on kasvanud. Varustusteed on Ukraina kontrolli all. Tõenäoliselt ei luba ka vene juhtkond siinsetel vägedel taanduda, mispärast ukraina pool saab ruttamata ja säästlikult töötada nende kahjutukstegemise suunas. Ukraina pool pressib ka rindel peale ja liigub iga päev edasi, üritades vene väegruppi kaheks lõigata ning Hersoni linnani jõuda. Vene pool suudab veel organiseeritud vastupanu osutada, kuid ka siin on järjest rohkem infot sõdurite deserteerumise ja allaandmiste kohta. Eile leviis uudis, et Hersni lähedale toodi 1500 kadärovi võitlejat. Pigem on see üksus ikkagi saadetud vene rindeüksuste motiveerimiseks seljatagant, sõjaliselt ei muuda see midagi. Järgmise nädala jooksul, võiks eeldada siingi vene suurema vastupanu murdumist. Vene väejuhatusel on käes tõehekt. Praeguseks peaks olema selge, et mitte mingeid suuremaid võitlusvõimelisi reserve venemaal ei ole. Jääb veel võimalus korjata midagi üle venemaa kokku - Ukrainasse on hetkel kaasatud üle 80% vene maavägede koosseisust. Kui tuua kphale veel allesjäänud üksused jääks kõik ülejäänud piirkonnad kaitseta ja lõpeks ajateenijate väljaõpe. Ei hakka veel sündmustest ette ruttama. Ukraina peab kõigepealt viima Izjumi ja Hersoni operatsioonid lõpuni- siis võib teha suuremaid järeldusi.
Edit: Some cheery Saturday morning thoughts: recalling the atrocities committed by Russians when retreating from Kyiv, the population of Kharkiv region can be grateful that RU forces were pushed back so quickly, so there must have been limited time to torture and kill the locals on the way out as punishment. But, Kherson probably won't be as lucky. Expect news of new Bucha's in a few weeks at the latest.
Our Finnish friends, could someone translate this thread? It looks fascinating, but the author's Finnish greatly surpasses mine or that of Google translate.
I think it's fair to say, the "special operation" is failure at this point, no matter how you put it?
Gregor Gysi, kind of a grey eminence of the left in Germany said Russia can't be beaten militarily. What a joke. So glad the younger generations of leftwing politicians mostly don't have that weird nostalgic positivity towards an autocratic regime.
On September 10 2022 18:19 r00ty wrote: I think it's fair to say, the "special operation" is failure at this point, no matter how you put it?
Gregor Gysi, kind of a grey eminence of the left in Germany said Russia can't be beaten militarily. What a joke. So glad the younger generations of leftwing politicians mostly don't have that weird nostalgic positivity towards an autocratic regime.
I think its more that the younger generations didn't live under decades of cold war propaganda about how the mighty USSR could come down from the north and roll a billion tanks across Europe.
And few people in general would have bet on Russia being this incompetent a year ago.
On September 10 2022 18:19 r00ty wrote: I think it's fair to say, the "special operation" is failure at this point, no matter how you put it?
Gregor Gysi, kind of a grey eminence of the left in Germany said Russia can't be beaten militarily. What a joke. So glad the younger generations of leftwing politicians mostly don't have that weird nostalgic positivity towards an autocratic regime.
I think its more that the younger generations didn't live under decades of cold war propaganda about how the mighty USSR could come down from the north and roll a billion tanks across Europe.
And few people in general would have bet on Russia being this incompetent a year ago.
True. In february, i was very certain that Russia would basically crush Ukraine really quickly. And i am no fan of Russia at all. Before 2022, when people thought about the Russian military, they thought about the 1945 Red Army.
However, what r00ty probably means is that for inexplicable reasons, a lot of (especially older) German left politicians love Russia. Which is strange, considering Russia is a rightwing autocracy.
On September 10 2022 00:33 Ghanburighan wrote: This is like reading fan faction about an ongoing war. 10/10 entertainment value.
You can't take it at 100% face value. I belive he is being truthful and in good faith providing what perspective he has given the information he has been given. The information we have has to be taken with an equal level of skepticism on how it influences our perspective than with how we consider his perspective.
Kherson being taken was probably a result of a few things that no one knows for sure. Treason did take a good part of it but it was also a mistake to not think that Russia would have wanted to take every major city that it could. Karkhiv Kherson and kyiv being in Russian hands would have crippled the Ukrainian response. They were stopped cold in one, failed to attempt to take the capital but succeeded to take at least one of their targets.
I think people need to change their expectations on what modern war victories mean. the Kherson offensive has succeeded in putting a ton of pressure on the troops that are stuck on the "wrong" side of the Deniper. Supplying what troops are still on that side while evacuating what troops they can, all under fires from Ukrainian positions against ferry points easily spottable, is a horrid situation to be in that doesn't need fixing by the Ukrainians.
Kharkiv on the other hand seems like a stroke of brilliance by the AFU attacking unfortified reservists in a region that had its good troops send across Siberia to play games with China. Ukrainian forces are at the gates of the Rail hub that is servicing the Izium pincer Should they take the city it would need a severodonesk-level effort to simply stabilize their strategic plan in the east. An effort that would mean that the Kherson front continues to bleed. The forces they need for that effort are either sitting in Southern Ukraine or are untested troops they've been cooking south of Moscow.
Well, I'm pretty sure I also saw the RU propaganda TV show that he's quoting here:
Western Military District command, which is responsible for the area, is comprised of known retards, who were getting command positions in the most prestigeious DIstrict of AFRF through friends and connections
It's all rubbish, meant to spew confusion and disinformation. Best course of action is to ignore it entirely.
Expected reaction on your part. However, I call you out on the underlined statement and request a source on any RU propaganda TV show, where any Russian military command is implied to be dumb and incompetent, Because this is punishable up to 5 years in jail under our current criminal legislation. http://www.consultant.ru/document/cons_doc_LAW_10699/4618fd95c30a6fbe7717ceaebf64f082e735c9ad/ Article 280.3 of the Criminal Code of Russian Federation. It's just on the subject of lies and unbased statements.
On September 10 2022 02:20 Artesimo wrote: For real, how can you look at someone calling it 'good improvisation' and take 'they call them lucky' away from that...? He just acknowledged ukraine to fluidly adapt to a weakness they possibly spotted with a probing attack. That would be a more impressive than exercising some long in advance drawn out plan.
Disregarding who might be right here, I feel like Ardias has the best track record out of all of us here when it comes to actually bringing sources whenever you disagree with him while also doing a far better job at critically engaging with them than most of the rest. And yet he keeps having to contest with accusations of russian propaganda, at this point I don't think you get away with just handwaving his stuff as 'russian propaganda'. If you accuse him of that, at least match him with some sources.
If its some 0 Post new account sure, but he is an established poster in this thread.
Improvisation and "getting lucky" are basically two sides of the same coin.
There's a reason why the people responsible are still staying silent about this. But we shouldn't be filling the void with impossible nonsense. Just look at the pictures, you can see an operation that must have required planning for a very long time. There's more to come.
Just wait and reliable information will be made public once it's no longer endangering lives. Speculation only makes the situation worse for Ukrainians who depend on the optics of this early push to demonstrate to Europe and the US that their aid is worth it while the weather cools.
US Marines are now offended by the underlined statement, or should I remind you their motto?
About "very long time planning":
1) Most of the forces involved (except 93rd Mechanized) were fighting on other parts of the front just a 1-1,5 months ago - 25th and 80th Airborne on the Slavyansk direction, 14th Mechanized - in Soledar, "Kraken" - in Kharkov.
2) Offensive happend exactly in the directon of Eastern MD positions (35th and 36th Combined Arms Armies and 68th Army Corps) which were left to the thin green line of reservists, because Eastern MD forces were pulled off to the Vostok-2022, and it happened in mid-August.
3) I wonder why you, being so staunch UA supporter, deny them ability to adapt to the flow of war and exploit AFRF weakness or hubris. But regarding the planning time required - 2nd largest airborne operation in the world history was planned within a week. Yes, I'm talking about Market Garden. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Market_Garden "Date 17–25 September 1944" "However several days of poor weather and Montgomery's concerns over increasing levels of German resistance caused him to postpone the operation [Comet] and then cancel it on 10 September.[46]
Comet was replaced by a more ambitious plan to bypass the Siegfried Line by hooking around its northern end, allowing the Allies to cross the Rhine with large forces and trap the German Fifteenth Army by advancing from Arnhem to the shores of the IJsselmeer: Operation Market Garden. " So you seem to greatly underestimate the possible speed of planning, especially if AFU are as competent as you claim them to be.
4) In Kherson preparation for AFU offensive was reported by Russian OSINT (yeah, it exists, even if you deny it) month or even more ago. This one for example: https://t.me/rybar/35830 19.07.2022 "The Ukrainian command is preparing for an offensive in the Krivoy Rog sector, increasing the grouping of forces and assets along the Ingulets River. Artillery units are firing at rear facilities in the Kherson region to prepare a bridgehead."
But for Balakleya the preparations were noticed much more recently (FYI, Bezsonov is DPR minister of information): https://t.me/NeoficialniyBeZsonoV/17067 30.08.2022 "Important! There are messages from local residents of the Kharkiv region. The Armed Forces of Ukraine have been accumulating equipment and manpower in the Balakliya direction for the last six days. Perhaps they are preparing a counteroffensive in the area. Perhaps in the direction of Izyum." For the last six days. So from 24.08.2022. Which perfectly aligns with the info of Eastern MD forces being pulled from the area in mid-August. If they weren't pulled off, AFU would be facing at least 3-4 additional battalion tactical groups in the area with artillery support.
5) This shit happened before near Kharkov, when AFU took Stary Saltov (people in this thread were discussing possible advance towards Volchansk at that time). The reason why it happened - one of AFRF brigades was sent on rotation before the unit that was supposed to shift them, arrived. The line was left to be held only by small groups of reservists for 5 days, in which time AFU took the opportunity and whacked AFRF positions there. https://t.me/uniannet/52888 07.05.2022 LDPR reservist POWs. https://t.me/rybar/32211 05.05.2022 "Reservist units of the DPR and LPR, as well as the Rosgvardia, left Russkaya Lozovaya and neighboring villages. The half-empty village of Stary Saltov was occupied by militants of the Kraken special forces unit of the Azov National Regiment."
So all this info combined - yes, I believe that AFU saw the opportunity and quickly and properly reacted to that, forming a necessary task force and conducting offensive which turned around the situation in the area. Don't know why you've become so triggered about that.
Also your "trust only in official information" strikingly reminds me of our state propaganda. Really, fighting the dragon, you become the dragon.
Edit: also I wonder, how the speculations of 3,5 anonyms in the offtopic section of the forum about Starcraft is somehow alters the situation for Ukraine.
On September 10 2022 01:18 maybenexttime wrote: The Ukrainians knew very well that Russia would try to take Kherson. The local defence had orders to blow up the bridges and block the roads with those "hedgehogs". According to the Ukrainian sources, the head of the Kherson defence (?) couldn't be reached on the day of the invasion. The bridges were not blown up, no defences were set up, the territorial defence units didn't get any dispositions and arms. The resistance the Russians faces was improvised. That looks to me an awful lot like sabotage.
I read up about the investigation on Kulinich, the former head of Crimea SBU department, most of the blame for the failures in the south is put on him and Sivkovich, former Deputy Secretary of National Defence and Security Council. https://t.me/uniannet/65550 However, it kinda seems that while they certainly may be heavily involved, they would become scapegoats also for other people failures and incompetence (or treachery, who knows), especially AFU Operational Command South. SBU do not command the Army, plus Army supposed to have it's own reconnaissance, and the threat of invasion and almost the exact date were shouted out of every corner. Yet most of the photos/videos of burned AFU columns were exactly from that area. But Russian advance was very fast as well in this area. War started at 5 AM, by midday forward armored elements were in Nova Kakhovka already.
On September 10 2022 06:50 JimmiC wrote: If this turns out to be true this is pretty massive news. There is pictures of the Lieutenant General Andrei Sychevoi among a group of Russian troops handcuffed on their knees with one social media user saying they were near Balakliya, in the Kharkiv region.
Could just be a look alike or who knows but if real, wow.
It's a lookalike, POW in question has two stars across his shoulder strap (though only one is visible, but placement of this one allows to understand the pattern). He is Lieutenant Colonel. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Army_ranks_and_insignia_of_the_Russian_Federation Lieutenant General would be two stars along the strap, not across.
On September 10 2022 00:33 Ghanburighan wrote: This is like reading fan faction about an ongoing war. 10/10 entertainment value.
You can't take it at 100% face value. I belive he is being truthful and in good faith providing what perspective he has given the information he has been given. The information we have has to be taken with an equal level of skepticism on how it influences our perspective than with how we consider his perspective.
Kherson being taken was probably a result of a few things that no one knows for sure. Treason did take a good part of it but it was also a mistake to not think that Russia would have wanted to take every major city that it could. Karkhiv Kherson and kyiv being in Russian hands would have crippled the Ukrainian response. They were stopped cold in one, failed to attempt to take the capital but succeeded to take at least one of their targets.
I think people need to change their expectations on what modern war victories mean. the Kherson offensive has succeeded in putting a ton of pressure on the troops that are stuck on the "wrong" side of the Deniper. Supplying what troops are still on that side while evacuating what troops they can, all under fires from Ukrainian positions against ferry points easily spottable, is a horrid situation to be in that doesn't need fixing by the Ukrainians.
Kharkiv on the other hand seems like a stroke of brilliance by the AFU attacking unfortified reservists in a region that had its good troops send across Siberia to play games with China. Ukrainian forces are at the gates of the Rail hub that is servicing the Izium pincer Should they take the city it would need a severodonesk-level effort to simply stabilize their strategic plan in the east. An effort that would mean that the Kherson front continues to bleed. The forces they need for that effort are either sitting in Southern Ukraine or are untested troops they've been cooking south of Moscow.
Well, I'm pretty sure I also saw the RU propaganda TV show that he's quoting here:
Western Military District command, which is responsible for the area, is comprised of known retards, who were getting command positions in the most prestigeious DIstrict of AFRF through friends and connections
It's all rubbish, meant to spew confusion and disinformation. Best course of action is to ignore it entirely.
Expected reaction on your part. However, I call you out on the underlined statement and request a source on any RU propaganda TV show, where any Russian military command is implied to be dumb and incompetent, Because this is punishable up to 5 years in jail under our current criminal legislation. http://www.consultant.ru/document/cons_doc_LAW_10699/4618fd95c30a6fbe7717ceaebf64f082e735c9ad/ Article 280.3 of the Criminal Code of Russian Federation. It's just on the subject of lies and unbased statements.
On September 10 2022 02:20 Artesimo wrote: For real, how can you look at someone calling it 'good improvisation' and take 'they call them lucky' away from that...? He just acknowledged ukraine to fluidly adapt to a weakness they possibly spotted with a probing attack. That would be a more impressive than exercising some long in advance drawn out plan.
Disregarding who might be right here, I feel like Ardias has the best track record out of all of us here when it comes to actually bringing sources whenever you disagree with him while also doing a far better job at critically engaging with them than most of the rest. And yet he keeps having to contest with accusations of russian propaganda, at this point I don't think you get away with just handwaving his stuff as 'russian propaganda'. If you accuse him of that, at least match him with some sources.
If its some 0 Post new account sure, but he is an established poster in this thread.
Improvisation and "getting lucky" are basically two sides of the same coin.
There's a reason why the people responsible are still staying silent about this. But we shouldn't be filling the void with impossible nonsense. Just look at the pictures, you can see an operation that must have required planning for a very long time. There's more to come.
Just wait and reliable information will be made public once it's no longer endangering lives. Speculation only makes the situation worse for Ukrainians who depend on the optics of this early push to demonstrate to Europe and the US that their aid is worth it while the weather cools.
US Marines are now offended by the underlined statement, or should I remind you their motto?
About "very long time planning":
1) Most of the forces involved (except 93rd Mechanized) were fighting on other parts of the front just a 1-1,5 months ago - 25th and 80th Airborne on the Slavyansk direction, 14th Mechanized - in Soledar, "Kraken" - in Kharkov.
2) Offensive happend exactly in the directon of Eastern MD positions (35th and 36th Combined Arms Armies and 68th Army Corps) which were left to the thin green line of reservists, because Eastern MD forces were pulled off to the Vostok-2022, and it happened in mid-August.
3) I wonder why you, being so staunch UA supporter, deny them ability to adapt to the flow of war and exploit AFRF weakness or hubris. But regarding the planning time required - 2nd largest airborne operation in the world history was planned within a week. Yes, I'm talking about Market Garden. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Market_Garden "Date 17–25 September 1944" "However several days of poor weather and Montgomery's concerns over increasing levels of German resistance caused him to postpone the operation [Comet] and then cancel it on 10 September.[46]
Comet was replaced by a more ambitious plan to bypass the Siegfried Line by hooking around its northern end, allowing the Allies to cross the Rhine with large forces and trap the German Fifteenth Army by advancing from Arnhem to the shores of the IJsselmeer: Operation Market Garden. " So you seem to greatly underestimate the possible speed of planning, especially if AFU are as competent as you claim them to be.
4) In Kherson preparation for AFU offensive was reported by Russian OSINT (yeah, it exists, even if you deny it) month or even more ago. This one for example: https://t.me/rybar/35830 19.07.2022 "The Ukrainian command is preparing for an offensive in the Krivoy Rog sector, increasing the grouping of forces and assets along the Ingulets River. Artillery units are firing at rear facilities in the Kherson region to prepare a bridgehead."
But for Balakleya the preparations were noticed much more recently (FYI, Bezsonov is DPR minister of information): https://t.me/NeoficialniyBeZsonoV/17067 30.08.2022 "Important! There are messages from local residents of the Kharkiv region. The Armed Forces of Ukraine have been accumulating equipment and manpower in the Balakliya direction for the last six days. Perhaps they are preparing a counteroffensive in the area. Perhaps in the direction of Izyum." For the last six days. So from 24.08.2022. Which perfectly aligns with the info of Eastern MD forces being pulled from the area in mid-August. If they weren't pulled off, AFU would be facing at least 3-4 additional battalion tactical groups in the area with artillery support.
5) This shit happened before near Kharkov, when AFU took Stary Saltov (people in this thread were discussing possible advance towards Volchansk at that time). The reason why it happened - one of AFRF brigades was sent on rotation before the unit that was supposed to shift them, arrived. The line was left to be held only by small groups of reservists for 5 days, in which time AFU took the opportunity and whacked AFRF positions there. https://t.me/uniannet/52888 07.05.2022 LDPR reservist POWs. https://t.me/rybar/32211 05.05.2022 "Reservist units of the DPR and LPR, as well as the Rosgvardia, left Russkaya Lozovaya and neighboring villages. The half-empty village of Stary Saltov was occupied by militants of the Kraken special forces unit of the Azov National Regiment."
So all this info combined - yes, I believe that AFU saw the opportunity and quickly and properly reacted to that, forming a necessary task force and conducting offensive which turned around the situation in the area. Don't know why you've become so triggered about that.
Also your "trust only in official information" strikingly reminds me of our state propaganda. Really, fighting the dragon, you become the dragon.
Edit: also I wonder, how the speculations of 3,5 anonyms in the offtopic section of the forum about Starcraft is somehow alters the situation for Ukraine.
That's another wall of text. And wildly misleading and insidious at that.
It's truly shocking to me that Russian state officials could be suspected of breaking their own laws.
I'm not belittling UA no matter how you twist my words. I just happen to know that this wasn't some kind of "adapt to the flow of war" BS. UA had great planning and uses exemplary NATO-style tactics, which do provide operational flexibility as they should. But this offensive and the result were expected, just not this quickly. Wait a little while and the details will be made public. Perhaps it shouldn't, but I'm pretty sure that the powers that be want their limelight for this success.
And, once again, nowhere did I say "trust only in official information". You're once again mischaracterizing what I said for a cheap ad hominem. I said "reliable information". Russian information and RU OSINT, even though it exists (never denied it), is worth nothing. Russia has one of the world's largest propaganda networks working day and night to provide disinformation. And Russians have been caught lying way too many times recently (remember when Putin said he wasn't invading UA in February? Or that they had nothing to do with MH17, Skripal, etc. So, instead of trusting anything coming from Russian sources, we wait for reliable information, which is neutral OSINT and free press. They also look at RU sources, btw, but they have the knowledge and experience to filter out the BS. This is why I post Rainer Saks updates, he's now retired, but has better experience and connections than almost anyone else on the planet to act as a reliability filter.
And don't underestimate TL. This place is full of amazing people doing important things. It might be a waste of time to have these discussions, but with the amount of talent on this site, I'd wager that it isn't. And even if there is no great impact, we shouldn't stoop so low as to allow misinformation to spread, and definitely not reveal information that runs counter to UA interests, because that would make us indirectly complicit in Russian genocide.
Look, we know already that you and the sources you are picking are the only truth, that only you know what happens, in Ukraine, Russia, Germany and wherever else, and that whenever Ardias posts you, just out of principle have to claim the opposite. But no, this is not your website, forum or thread. Stop pretending you are deciding who can and should post here and who shouldn't. I think over the last months and days enough people here have shown that they are wecloming Ardias and his updates here.
No, I'm interested in both their posts even if they skew a certain way. The Rainer Saks updates in particular are very good. Ardias posts are fine as well.
On September 10 2022 21:15 RvB wrote: No, I'm interested in both their posts even if they skew a certain way. The Rainer Saks updates in particular are very good. Ardias posts are fine as well.
Oh, I only meant those pointless "hurr durr Ardias bad, go away" posts.
On September 10 2022 00:33 Ghanburighan wrote: This is like reading fan faction about an ongoing war. 10/10 entertainment value.
You can't take it at 100% face value. I belive he is being truthful and in good faith providing what perspective he has given the information he has been given. The information we have has to be taken with an equal level of skepticism on how it influences our perspective than with how we consider his perspective.
Kherson being taken was probably a result of a few things that no one knows for sure. Treason did take a good part of it but it was also a mistake to not think that Russia would have wanted to take every major city that it could. Karkhiv Kherson and kyiv being in Russian hands would have crippled the Ukrainian response. They were stopped cold in one, failed to attempt to take the capital but succeeded to take at least one of their targets.
I think people need to change their expectations on what modern war victories mean. the Kherson offensive has succeeded in putting a ton of pressure on the troops that are stuck on the "wrong" side of the Deniper. Supplying what troops are still on that side while evacuating what troops they can, all under fires from Ukrainian positions against ferry points easily spottable, is a horrid situation to be in that doesn't need fixing by the Ukrainians.
Kharkiv on the other hand seems like a stroke of brilliance by the AFU attacking unfortified reservists in a region that had its good troops send across Siberia to play games with China. Ukrainian forces are at the gates of the Rail hub that is servicing the Izium pincer Should they take the city it would need a severodonesk-level effort to simply stabilize their strategic plan in the east. An effort that would mean that the Kherson front continues to bleed. The forces they need for that effort are either sitting in Southern Ukraine or are untested troops they've been cooking south of Moscow.
Well, I'm pretty sure I also saw the RU propaganda TV show that he's quoting here:
Western Military District command, which is responsible for the area, is comprised of known retards, who were getting command positions in the most prestigeious DIstrict of AFRF through friends and connections
It's all rubbish, meant to spew confusion and disinformation. Best course of action is to ignore it entirely.
Expected reaction on your part. However, I call you out on the underlined statement and request a source on any RU propaganda TV show, where any Russian military command is implied to be dumb and incompetent, Because this is punishable up to 5 years in jail under our current criminal legislation. http://www.consultant.ru/document/cons_doc_LAW_10699/4618fd95c30a6fbe7717ceaebf64f082e735c9ad/ Article 280.3 of the Criminal Code of Russian Federation. It's just on the subject of lies and unbased statements.
On September 10 2022 06:21 Ghanburighan wrote:
On September 10 2022 02:20 Artesimo wrote: For real, how can you look at someone calling it 'good improvisation' and take 'they call them lucky' away from that...? He just acknowledged ukraine to fluidly adapt to a weakness they possibly spotted with a probing attack. That would be a more impressive than exercising some long in advance drawn out plan.
Disregarding who might be right here, I feel like Ardias has the best track record out of all of us here when it comes to actually bringing sources whenever you disagree with him while also doing a far better job at critically engaging with them than most of the rest. And yet he keeps having to contest with accusations of russian propaganda, at this point I don't think you get away with just handwaving his stuff as 'russian propaganda'. If you accuse him of that, at least match him with some sources.
If its some 0 Post new account sure, but he is an established poster in this thread.
Improvisation and "getting lucky" are basically two sides of the same coin.
There's a reason why the people responsible are still staying silent about this. But we shouldn't be filling the void with impossible nonsense. Just look at the pictures, you can see an operation that must have required planning for a very long time. There's more to come.
Just wait and reliable information will be made public once it's no longer endangering lives. Speculation only makes the situation worse for Ukrainians who depend on the optics of this early push to demonstrate to Europe and the US that their aid is worth it while the weather cools.
US Marines are now offended by the underlined statement, or should I remind you their motto?
About "very long time planning":
1) Most of the forces involved (except 93rd Mechanized) were fighting on other parts of the front just a 1-1,5 months ago - 25th and 80th Airborne on the Slavyansk direction, 14th Mechanized - in Soledar, "Kraken" - in Kharkov.
2) Offensive happend exactly in the directon of Eastern MD positions (35th and 36th Combined Arms Armies and 68th Army Corps) which were left to the thin green line of reservists, because Eastern MD forces were pulled off to the Vostok-2022, and it happened in mid-August.
3) I wonder why you, being so staunch UA supporter, deny them ability to adapt to the flow of war and exploit AFRF weakness or hubris. But regarding the planning time required - 2nd largest airborne operation in the world history was planned within a week. Yes, I'm talking about Market Garden. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Market_Garden "Date 17–25 September 1944" "However several days of poor weather and Montgomery's concerns over increasing levels of German resistance caused him to postpone the operation [Comet] and then cancel it on 10 September.[46]
Comet was replaced by a more ambitious plan to bypass the Siegfried Line by hooking around its northern end, allowing the Allies to cross the Rhine with large forces and trap the German Fifteenth Army by advancing from Arnhem to the shores of the IJsselmeer: Operation Market Garden. " So you seem to greatly underestimate the possible speed of planning, especially if AFU are as competent as you claim them to be.
4) In Kherson preparation for AFU offensive was reported by Russian OSINT (yeah, it exists, even if you deny it) month or even more ago. This one for example: https://t.me/rybar/35830 19.07.2022 "The Ukrainian command is preparing for an offensive in the Krivoy Rog sector, increasing the grouping of forces and assets along the Ingulets River. Artillery units are firing at rear facilities in the Kherson region to prepare a bridgehead."
But for Balakleya the preparations were noticed much more recently (FYI, Bezsonov is DPR minister of information): https://t.me/NeoficialniyBeZsonoV/17067 30.08.2022 "Important! There are messages from local residents of the Kharkiv region. The Armed Forces of Ukraine have been accumulating equipment and manpower in the Balakliya direction for the last six days. Perhaps they are preparing a counteroffensive in the area. Perhaps in the direction of Izyum." For the last six days. So from 24.08.2022. Which perfectly aligns with the info of Eastern MD forces being pulled from the area in mid-August. If they weren't pulled off, AFU would be facing at least 3-4 additional battalion tactical groups in the area with artillery support.
5) This shit happened before near Kharkov, when AFU took Stary Saltov (people in this thread were discussing possible advance towards Volchansk at that time). The reason why it happened - one of AFRF brigades was sent on rotation before the unit that was supposed to shift them, arrived. The line was left to be held only by small groups of reservists for 5 days, in which time AFU took the opportunity and whacked AFRF positions there. https://t.me/uniannet/52888 07.05.2022 LDPR reservist POWs. https://t.me/rybar/32211 05.05.2022 "Reservist units of the DPR and LPR, as well as the Rosgvardia, left Russkaya Lozovaya and neighboring villages. The half-empty village of Stary Saltov was occupied by militants of the Kraken special forces unit of the Azov National Regiment."
So all this info combined - yes, I believe that AFU saw the opportunity and quickly and properly reacted to that, forming a necessary task force and conducting offensive which turned around the situation in the area. Don't know why you've become so triggered about that.
Also your "trust only in official information" strikingly reminds me of our state propaganda. Really, fighting the dragon, you become the dragon.
Edit: also I wonder, how the speculations of 3,5 anonyms in the offtopic section of the forum about Starcraft is somehow alters the situation for Ukraine.
That's another wall of text. And wildly misleading and insidious at that.
I'm not belittling UA no matter how you twist my words. I just happen to know that this wasn't some kind of "adapt to the flow of war" BS. UA had great planning and uses exemplary NATO-style tactics, which do provide operational flexibility as they should. But this offensive and the result were expected, just not this quickly. Wait a little while and the details will be made public. Perhaps it shouldn't, but I'm pretty sure that the powers that be want their limelight for this success.
And, once again, nowhere did I say "trust only in official information". You're once again mischaracterizing what I said for a cheap ad hominem. I said "reliable information". Russian information and RU OSINT, even though it exists (never denied it), is worth nothing. Russia has one of the world's largest propaganda networks working day and night to provide disinformation. And Russians have been caught lying way too many times recently (remember when Putin said he wasn't invading UA in February? Or that they had nothing to do with MH17, Skripal, etc. So, instead of trusting anything coming from Russian sources, we wait for reliable information, which is neutral OSINT and free press. They also look at RU sources, btw, but they have the knowledge and experience to filter out the BS. This is why I post Rainer Saks updates, he's now retired, but has better experience and connections than almost anyone else on the planet to act as a reliability filter.
And don't underestimate TL. This place is full of amazing people doing important things. It might be a waste of time to have these discussions, but with the amount of talent on this site, I'd wager that it isn't. And even if there is no great impact, we shouldn't stoop so low as to allow misinformation to spread, and definitely not reveal information that runs counter to UA interests, because that would make us indirectly complicit in Russian genocide.
If these results were expected long ago, it means that UA knew months in advance that Eastern MD forces would be taken off, and that would mean treason on the highest level of RU military leadership, because the offensive was clearly tied to that. Good for you if you have reliable sources on such information, hope you would share them when the time is nigh. Otherwise I would cling to my assesment, since you didn't provide relevant arguments against my points.
Okay, my bad, "reliable". Tell me then, which OSINT and press are neutral on the matter? Indian? Because the ones from NATO countries surely aren't neutral in this case. Also please point out where I am bringing Putin/Kremlin/other state official info as support for my arguments. Or where I state that our official information is truthful and should be trusted. And if you think that FSB is controlling everything and everyone who post anything about the war from the Russian side (or else why would you claim, that Russian OSINT is "worth nothing"? It's the same OSINT as western one, combination of public (mostly) information which is searched, compiled and analyzed, it's just that Western OSINT is focused of Russia, while Russian OSINT - on Ukraine) - you are wrong. There are plenty in people in Russia supporting the war, but being at odds with Kremlin about how it should have been conducted.
Now it's you who are twisting my words, I never said anything bad about TL audience. Just that the size of it in the perspective of things and influence of it on the global war effort far from the necessity to shut down discussion based on open sources for some kind of security or public support reason. Also you talk about publishing info from "neutral sources" and basically in the next sentence say that "this info should not counter UA interests". Which is opposite of neutral, neutral source doesn't care about interests of any side. Also you may consider me, quoting you, "indirectly complicit in Russian genocide", because I ain't bound that much to UA interests. I'm Russian, after all, by your logic I'm complicit anyway, since I'm not trying to blow up Kremlin right at this moment.
On September 10 2022 20:49 Ghanburighan wrote: It's truly shocking to me that Russian state officials could be suspected of breaking their own laws.
EPT![[image loading]](https://i.gyazo.com/5600736f0322ea65f21424a2cad867d0.jpg)
