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If I had a penny for every time I heard that I'd be richer than the Russian central bank by now.
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On June 29 2025 06:47 Elroi wrote:If I had a penny for every time I heard that I'd be richer than the Russian central bank by now.
Ok, but do you have a penny for every time Russia admits they are in trouble? You'd think that would maybe perhaps possibly be noteworthy..?
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The war chest is shrinking super fast. My big question is how will their economy work when the war ends. Now you have to deal with all these soldiers who are injured both physically and mentally. Then you have put almost no money into infrastructure or future production (other than military which won't be needed). They can limp along for quite a while as Sim points out, well the war is going on. Post war is going to be a different story.
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On June 29 2025 07:29 Billyboy wrote:
The war chest is shrinking super fast. My big question is how will their economy work when the war ends. Now you have to deal with all these soldiers who are injured both physically and mentally. Then you have put almost no money into infrastructure or future production (other than military which won't be needed). They can limp along for quite a while as Sim points out, well the war is going on. Post war is going to be a different story.
If they are left alone, it will be a slow and long process for sure. With outside investment, it's a different story. Ukraine, for instance, is likely to be able to rebuild themselves very quickly, especially seeing as a lot of the support they're getting is already earmarked for rebuilding. How people will approach Russia is much more difficult to tell. In one way it feels like well deserved karma to just let them deal with their problems. Simultaneously, a boost of western influence through huge outside investments might be just what is needed to start aligning them with western culture, and perhaps finally stop this ridiculous feud. A bit like how differently we treated Germany after WW1 compared to after WW2. Also, we all know just how difficult it will be to hold people back when there's money to be made..
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On June 29 2025 07:35 Excludos wrote:Show nested quote +On June 29 2025 07:29 Billyboy wrote:
The war chest is shrinking super fast. My big question is how will their economy work when the war ends. Now you have to deal with all these soldiers who are injured both physically and mentally. Then you have put almost no money into infrastructure or future production (other than military which won't be needed). They can limp along for quite a while as Sim points out, well the war is going on. Post war is going to be a different story. If they are left alone, it will be a slow and long process for sure. With outside investment, it's a different story. Ukraine, for instance, is likely to be able to rebuild themselves very quickly, especially seeing as a lot of the support they're getting is already earmarked for rebuilding. How people will approach Russia is much more difficult to tell. In one way it feels like well deserved karma to just let them deal with their problems. Simultaneously, a boost of western influence through huge outside investments might be just what is needed to start aligning them with western culture, and perhaps finally stop this ridiculous feud. A bit like how differently we treated Germany after WW1 compared to after WW2. Also, we all know just how difficult it will be to hold people back when there's money to be made..
I'm not sure, it works unless Putin is gone. I actually have been thinking a fair bit that we need to stop calling the group that opposes Russia/China/Iran/Venezuela "the west". Not only because there are countries from the east in it, but also because what it really comes down to is democracies vs dictators. Form a purely marketing standpoint, which sadly we have seen matters a whole bunch, I think being mad at "the west" is a lot easier than it is to be mad at the democracies.
Pointing out that all Russian allies are from all edges of political spectrum and what brings them together is authoritarian would in my mind make it clearer especially to the MAGA type which is the good guys and which is the bad guys. Lots of them think DJT is freedom and since he has liked Putin he must be fighting for freedom from the woke or whatever.
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It seems Russia is ramping up the bombing war.
Predictable response given limited progress on the ground.
That's one area where they may be able to genuinely out-attrition Ukraine, the crucial question being if they can keep it up long term.
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So basically, after saying that he's going to end this war on day 1, Trump came in, threw his weight around to get failed negotiations that did nothing going, then he thretened both sides, announced a ceasefire which Russia broke immediately, hosted Zelensky only to ambush him, stopped intelligence sharing and weapons, then had a sit down meet with Zelensky where Vance wasn't there to wormtounge around so intelligence and weapons shipments resumed and he did a "for real this time Vladimir come to the table" call which Putin ignored and humiliated him again by doing huge attacks on civilians, then he had little Marco threaten that US will leave the negotiations, had a few angry tweets and now that we are in the "who knew the war could be so complicated" phase of his thinking he's quietly stopping support and turning his back on Ukraine.
All of the ass kissing and bending over backwards by Europeans and Ukrainians was basically to buy half a year of him trying to play at being negotiator, which is not nothing but it's still pretty fucked.
A depressing state of affairs, not really surprising but an obligatory fuck you to everyone who voted for him or voted third party.
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Wakey wakey, Trump's a snakey.
I just hope EU is gonna pick up the slack and don't follow the US. Problems are EU can't do some things US could, like the missing Patriot systems/ Ammunition for air defense which UA desperately need.
And what about Trumps great "mineral deal" anyway?
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United States43361 Posts
Mineral deal never existed. There was an agreed upon framework that there could be a fund and Ukraine could put money in the fund directly and the United States could donate military aid and count that as a contribution to the fund. The fund has not yet been established. Trump just wanted to announce anything and so he announced a framework for a fund.
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On July 03 2025 20:32 Harris1st wrote:
Wakey wakey, Trump's a snakey.
I just hope EU is gonna pick up the slack and don't follow the US. Problems are EU can't do some things US could, like the missing Patriot systems/ Ammunition for air defense which UA desperately need.
And what about Trumps great "mineral deal" anyway?
I wouldn't hold my breath.
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Never thought the day would come, but for once I agree with GH. I'm not holding my breath on the current generation of backbone less political leaders, who all just watched Trump stab them in the back after agreeing to increase their military budget just to appease him
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People have agreed with GH a lot he just refuses to get over that step and engage with how to change it for the better or the reasons that it is the case. Most of the time he pretends that just removing everything will magically improve conditions.
In this case the reason is a fractured European community that is tied too close together to act independently but also not tight enough to act as one. A euro super state should be the stuff of nightmares to someone like GH, but if he never engages with solutions he can remain with his moral high ground by criticism of the status quo.
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The EU can't replace the US even if it wanted to because many of those new ammunition factories in Europe are still imaginary and that's not going to change this year.
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On July 04 2025 01:54 Sent. wrote:
The EU can't replace the US even if it wanted to because many of those new ammunition factories in Europe are still imaginary and that's not going to change this year. Probably not even next year, at least not in full capacity for sure.
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So US support to Ukraine. Is it stop of sales of services and goods as well? Or just the US financing those?
Basically, could EU hire the US to keep doing intel for Ukraine and buy patriot missiles for them?
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The biggest hope is probably TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out) and he changes his mind. Maybe Kid rock or Kanye can talk some sense into him.
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On July 04 2025 00:58 Sermokala wrote:
People have agreed with GH a lot he just refuses to get over that step and engage with how to change it for the better or the reasons that it is the case. Most of the time he pretends that just removing everything will magically improve conditions.
In this case the reason is a fractured European community that is tied too close together to act independently but also not tight enough to act as one. A euro super state should be the stuff of nightmares to someone like GH, but if he never engages with solutions he can remain with his moral high ground by criticism of the status quo.
I know this is a generalization but as a EU citizien, I have difficulties seeing an US citizen on a moral high ground right now... though that is a discussion for another day I guess
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On July 03 2025 23:27 GreenHorizons wrote:Show nested quote +On July 03 2025 20:32 Harris1st wrote:
Wakey wakey, Trump's a snakey.
I just hope EU is gonna pick up the slack and don't follow the US. Problems are EU can't do some things US could, like the missing Patriot systems/ Ammunition for air defense which UA desperately need.
And what about Trumps great "mineral deal" anyway? I wouldn't hold my breath.
Germany is officially thinking about buying Patriots for UA.
They'll talk with US about details
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I think it's totally reasonable to talk with the US about buying more Patriots but if Trump cultists demand anything above the bare minimum it's probably better to just spend that money on whatever can be bought from non-American entities even if it's not as useful. I still believe the American """deep state""" understands it's better to support Ukraine but Trump cultists are a different beast.
We can't make Americans stay on the right side and paying extra money for their stuff is like signing up for a protection racket that certainly isn't going to end well for anyone else but them and of course Russians.
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EPT
