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NOTE: When providing a source, please provide a very brief summary on what it's about and what purpose it adds to the discussion. The supporting statement should clearly explain why the subject is relevant and needs to be discussed. Please follow this rule especially for tweets.
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Decades ahead - hell no. They do have quite a few good things, though - it's mostly a case of negligence (manufacturing/training/actual use/etc). I'd say that their air force is most lacking.
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United States41117 Posts
Aftermath of the explosion showing ammunition, and other debris.
Big explosion in Russian occupied Pervomaisk.
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On August 12 2022 06:42 Ardias wrote:Show nested quote +On August 12 2022 06:11 Magic Powers wrote:On August 12 2022 06:01 Ardias wrote:On August 12 2022 04:48 Neneu wrote:On August 12 2022 04:15 Ghanburighan wrote:On August 12 2022 04:02 Neneu wrote:On August 11 2022 17:20 Ghanburighan wrote:On August 10 2022 19:37 Ghanburighan wrote:On August 10 2022 18:02 Silvanel wrote:It could be: 1. An loitering munition hitting stockpile of weapons (Russians are supposedly notorious for keeping them on air-fields prior to missions) 2. Long range rocket (Unannounced donation or UA made) 3. Drone 4. Sabotage 5. A submarine (yeah i have seen some people suggesting, there was an unannounced donation of submarine towards UA) sounds very far-fetched to me. 6. An accident I know we shouldn't trust RU, since they called sinking of Moskva an accident  and notorious other lies but accidents do happen in war. If UA wont take credit I think it is plausible that this distaster is of Russia's own making. Excluding the luckiest chain reaction known to man, we should assume from the videos and especially the range of damage that UA hit the airbase with explosives measured in tons. That's too much for sabotage, drones, etc. Perhaps a Hrim-2 weapons test? I heard that UA doesn't have what was needed to produce Hrim-2 for themselves. This basically leaves the option of early delivery of US MLRS Atacms. But that raises the question of what happened to the promise of not firing HIMARS onto Russian soil - US accepts that Crimea is fair game? UA fudged and called Russia's bluff regarding tactical nukes? Whatever it was, the casualty estimates are growing by the hour. This was a massive blow to the Russian southern defence and we should expect the tide to turn even more to UA's favour soon. UA hit the last bridge, the dam in Nova Kahovka, with precise strikes, all in a line, making sure there's still a narrow path for lighter equipment. Basically saying to the Russians, it's your last chance to get out. Crimea is not Russian soil, it is Ukrainian. Of 195 countries, only 15 countries (North Korea, Myanmar, Venezuela, etc.) supports Crimea as a federal subject to Russia. It doesn't have to be HIMARS (and they most likely weren't, the payload would be too small). I would put my bet on a missile system such as Sapsan TBM with modified Tochka-U (with the help from Turkey/Israel). You're preaching to the choir here. Crimea is Ukraine in my book. But RU said they'd respond with nukes if RU soil was attacked and US believed them, so what's going on now is less than clear. Well according to Russia there is no such thing as Ukraine as a country, so if going by their definition any missile in Ukraine would be striking Russian soil. Can't use their definition then of what is Russian soil. Is there a quote on that? I didn't see any Kremlin official denying the existence of Ukraine as a state. As for hitting targets within Russia - despite the scale of war, there seem to be boundaries which both sides are rarely crossing. Ukrainians could definetly hit more targets within Russia (especially in border regions), but instead they do it sporadically and Ukraine officials claim to be not involved in any of this cases. Russia, on the other hand, rarely attacks Ukraine rail and bridge infrastracture, despite showing capability to do so (especially on Zatoka bridge near Odessa, though missiles did struck bridges in Dnipro and Zaporozhie couple of times) and the fact that it is immensely important for UA war effort. And I'm not even talking about the fact that no government building in Kiev was ever attacked (not counting the Security Service of Ukraine headquarters on 2nd day of war). In this speech prior to the war, Putin denied Ukraine full statehood. This was not denied by any official sources in Russia. https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/21/world/europe/putin-ukraine.html I wonder why that article did not include this quote from the same Putin's speech. "Despite all these injustices, deceit and outright robbery of Russia, our people, namely the people, recognized the new geopolitical realities that arose after the collapse of the USSR, recognized the new independent states. And not only recognized it - Russia itself, being in a difficult situation at that time, helped its partners in the CIS, including Ukrainian colleagues, from whom, right from the moment of independence, numerous requests for material support began to arrive. And our country provided such support with respect for the dignity and sovereignty of Ukraine."
I'm sure I missed some of the previous posts but what are you trying to prove? Are you just translating and adding color, or are you claiming there's some "justice" in Putin's self-assigned historic agenda? Because that would be an incredibly tough position to defend and I'd love to bring it all the way back to Novgorod and Kiev if that's what it takes. You don't get to pick an arbitrary point in history that suits your needs, which is doubly funny coming from Putin, whose knowledge of the past is notoriously bad (throughout his presidency he made some really stupid comments that weren't based in reality, not unlike his intellectual rival Lukashenko).
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Russian Federation618 Posts
On August 17 2022 12:03 food wrote:Show nested quote +On August 12 2022 06:42 Ardias wrote:On August 12 2022 06:11 Magic Powers wrote:On August 12 2022 06:01 Ardias wrote:On August 12 2022 04:48 Neneu wrote:On August 12 2022 04:15 Ghanburighan wrote:On August 12 2022 04:02 Neneu wrote:On August 11 2022 17:20 Ghanburighan wrote:On August 10 2022 19:37 Ghanburighan wrote:On August 10 2022 18:02 Silvanel wrote:It could be: 1. An loitering munition hitting stockpile of weapons (Russians are supposedly notorious for keeping them on air-fields prior to missions) 2. Long range rocket (Unannounced donation or UA made) 3. Drone 4. Sabotage 5. A submarine (yeah i have seen some people suggesting, there was an unannounced donation of submarine towards UA) sounds very far-fetched to me. 6. An accident I know we shouldn't trust RU, since they called sinking of Moskva an accident and notorious other lies but accidents do happen in war. If UA wont take credit I think it is plausible that this distaster is of Russia's own making. Excluding the luckiest chain reaction known to man, we should assume from the videos and especially the range of damage that UA hit the airbase with explosives measured in tons. That's too much for sabotage, drones, etc. Perhaps a Hrim-2 weapons test? I heard that UA doesn't have what was needed to produce Hrim-2 for themselves. This basically leaves the option of early delivery of US MLRS Atacms. But that raises the question of what happened to the promise of not firing HIMARS onto Russian soil - US accepts that Crimea is fair game? UA fudged and called Russia's bluff regarding tactical nukes? Whatever it was, the casualty estimates are growing by the hour. This was a massive blow to the Russian southern defence and we should expect the tide to turn even more to UA's favour soon. UA hit the last bridge, the dam in Nova Kahovka, with precise strikes, all in a line, making sure there's still a narrow path for lighter equipment. Basically saying to the Russians, it's your last chance to get out. https://twitter.com/NickWallington2/status/1557377841066541059 Crimea is not Russian soil, it is Ukrainian. Of 195 countries, only 15 countries (North Korea, Myanmar, Venezuela, etc.) supports Crimea as a federal subject to Russia. It doesn't have to be HIMARS (and they most likely weren't, the payload would be too small). I would put my bet on a missile system such as Sapsan TBM with modified Tochka-U (with the help from Turkey/Israel). You're preaching to the choir here. Crimea is Ukraine in my book. But RU said they'd respond with nukes if RU soil was attacked and US believed them, so what's going on now is less than clear. Well according to Russia there is no such thing as Ukraine as a country, so if going by their definition any missile in Ukraine would be striking Russian soil. Can't use their definition then of what is Russian soil. Is there a quote on that? I didn't see any Kremlin official denying the existence of Ukraine as a state. As for hitting targets within Russia - despite the scale of war, there seem to be boundaries which both sides are rarely crossing. Ukrainians could definetly hit more targets within Russia (especially in border regions), but instead they do it sporadically and Ukraine officials claim to be not involved in any of this cases. Russia, on the other hand, rarely attacks Ukraine rail and bridge infrastracture, despite showing capability to do so (especially on Zatoka bridge near Odessa, though missiles did struck bridges in Dnipro and Zaporozhie couple of times) and the fact that it is immensely important for UA war effort. And I'm not even talking about the fact that no government building in Kiev was ever attacked (not counting the Security Service of Ukraine headquarters on 2nd day of war). In this speech prior to the war, Putin denied Ukraine full statehood. This was not denied by any official sources in Russia. https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/21/world/europe/putin-ukraine.html I wonder why that article did not include this quote from the same Putin's speech. "Despite all these injustices, deceit and outright robbery of Russia, our people, namely the people, recognized the new geopolitical realities that arose after the collapse of the USSR, recognized the new independent states. And not only recognized it - Russia itself, being in a difficult situation at that time, helped its partners in the CIS, including Ukrainian colleagues, from whom, right from the moment of independence, numerous requests for material support began to arrive. And our country provided such support with respect for the dignity and sovereignty of Ukraine." I'm sure I missed some of the previous posts but what are you trying to prove? Are you just translating and adding color, or are you claiming there's some "justice" in Putin's self-assigned historic agenda? Because that would be an incredibly tough position to defend and I'd love to bring it all the way back to Novgorod and Kiev if that's what it takes. You don't get to pick an arbitrary point in history that suits your needs, which is doubly funny coming from Putin, whose knowledge of the past is notoriously bad (throughout his presidency he made some really stupid comments that weren't based in reality, not unlike his intellectual rival Lukashenko).
I specifically underlined with bold text the point I was arguing against in a quote of previous poster, and that is "Well according to Russia there is no such thing as Ukraine as a country". And in my reply I underlined Putin's quotes that Russia recognized Ukraine as a country (even if Putin personally disliked the fact) and nowhere after that it was said, or otherwise implied by Russian government, that they unrecognized Ukraine as sovereign entity. And yes, to start a war against another country =/= deny the existence of this country as a sovereign state.
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United States41117 Posts
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United States41117 Posts
That's a strategy I guess... also makes me wonder if such a hack is pushing the Article 5 definition.
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Probably hard to prove that those are Russian state actors behind it. I very much hope that NATO at least helps in the defense against these hacks, though.
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United States41117 Posts
Not sure about the numbers are even close to accurate, but the supposed HIMARs strike took out an entire Command HQ, as well as a number of FSB personnel.
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United States41117 Posts
Denmark to stop issuing Tourist Visas to Russia.
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I happen to be in Estonia to get a new ID card, also doing shopping. Didn't know there was an attack until I read about it here. Estonia is probably the best prepared country to handle this cyber attack and mitigated 99 percent instantly and the rest within an hour.
I doubt NATO will even discuss this because similar attacks have been happening for decades, hence we have the NATO Center for Cyber Defence here and CERT is very capable.
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On August 18 2022 05:14 JimmiC wrote:
I think that is a really big deal, it will make it very hard for Russia to pretend like the war is not going on. It will greatly impact their middle and upper class. I hope all the countries agree, the more pressure on Putin the better.
Another fun action would be to massively simplify immigration from Russia to EU, increasing brain drain. Runs some risk with spies and saboteurs but seems worthwhile.
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On August 18 2022 05:21 JimmiC wrote:Show nested quote +On August 18 2022 05:16 Yurie wrote:On August 18 2022 05:14 JimmiC wrote:
I think that is a really big deal, it will make it very hard for Russia to pretend like the war is not going on. It will greatly impact their middle and upper class. I hope all the countries agree, the more pressure on Putin the better. Another fun action would be to massively simplify immigration from Russia to EU, increasing brain drain. Runs some risk with spies and saboteurs but seems worthwhile. It might be difficult to get rid of those elements anyway, I think you would get mostly reasonable people that want out from under the dictatorship. I find it interesting that "the grayzone" has gone full Russian propaganda. It was not that long ago that it was cited on this site in various pol threads as a independent news source that was cutting through the capitalist propaganda. Now its just straight up trying to pump up the wagner group and getting them bombed!
It was always a RU info op. Same people, same funding.
***
I'm watching for signs of RU abandoning Crimean airbases. The added travel time would provide a major advantage for the Kherson counteroffensive.
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On August 18 2022 05:21 JimmiC wrote:Show nested quote +On August 18 2022 05:16 Yurie wrote:On August 18 2022 05:14 JimmiC wrote:
I think that is a really big deal, it will make it very hard for Russia to pretend like the war is not going on. It will greatly impact their middle and upper class. I hope all the countries agree, the more pressure on Putin the better. Another fun action would be to massively simplify immigration from Russia to EU, increasing brain drain. Runs some risk with spies and saboteurs but seems worthwhile. It might be difficult to get rid of those elements anyway, I think you would get mostly reasonable people that want out from under the dictatorship. I find it interesting that "the grayzone" has gone full Russian propaganda. It was not that long ago that it was cited on this site in various pol threads as a independent news source that was cutting through the capitalist propaganda. Now its just straight up trying to pump up the wagner group and getting them bombed! https://twitter.com/AricToler/status/1558869697747107840
If the result of this Russan propaganda is that UA can easily find and delete these places I'm all for it :D
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On August 18 2022 20:35 Harris1st wrote:Show nested quote +On August 18 2022 05:21 JimmiC wrote:On August 18 2022 05:16 Yurie wrote:On August 18 2022 05:14 JimmiC wrote:
I think that is a really big deal, it will make it very hard for Russia to pretend like the war is not going on. It will greatly impact their middle and upper class. I hope all the countries agree, the more pressure on Putin the better. Another fun action would be to massively simplify immigration from Russia to EU, increasing brain drain. Runs some risk with spies and saboteurs but seems worthwhile. It might be difficult to get rid of those elements anyway, I think you would get mostly reasonable people that want out from under the dictatorship. I find it interesting that "the grayzone" has gone full Russian propaganda. It was not that long ago that it was cited on this site in various pol threads as a independent news source that was cutting through the capitalist propaganda. Now its just straight up trying to pump up the wagner group and getting them bombed! https://twitter.com/AricToler/status/1558869697747107840 If the result of this Russan propaganda is that UA can easily find and delete these places I'm all for it :D
Just to be clear, they're homophones, not the same organization.
EDIT: People can feel however they like about The Grayzone's reporting but as a simple matter of fact (and contrary to how it was presented here), the two are not the same organization as the author of the cited tweet noted themselves 2x in the thread.
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EPT
