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NOTE: When providing a source, please provide a very brief summary on what it's about and what purpose it adds to the discussion. The supporting statement should clearly explain why the subject is relevant and needs to be discussed. Please follow this rule especially for tweets.
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On August 10 2022 01:34 KwarK wrote:Show nested quote +On August 10 2022 00:19 Manit0u wrote:On August 09 2022 22:51 Silvanel wrote: Context on 60k shells number - PZH 2000 after firing 100 shells a day for a month needs a maintenance/fixing/replacement of loading mechanism. Don't forget that most artillery pieces also need to have their barrels replaced after firing about 40k rounds. Isn’t that only if you care what you hit?
I'd guess that there are two points in the life of a barrel that are relevant here: The point where it starts getting more inaccurate, and the point where it starts to possibly explode when firing.
Probably with a sliding scale in between those. Where those points are in the lifetime of a barrel, i don't know.
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I posted the link with answer to that question. Generally speaking, an artillery barrel that shot 4k rounds is considered very good. The wear not only decreases accuracy, but also dramatically increases the chance of discharge inside barrel.
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One have to remember that NATO and Sovjet had a very different approach when it came to lifespan/safety of their mechanized army/airforce. While we send our equipment/vehicles/airforce to maintenance the moment there are some cracks in lets say a bolt, Sovjet knew that their quality of production were shit so they designed around it. Instead of e.g. using 3 bolts of high quality, they used 8 of uncertain quality and have their maintenance set on interval instead of inspection.
So, their artillery might have very high redundancy while slowly degrading. It's a very different approach than what NATO uses.
When it comes to the attack of the airbase, there are a few possibilities when it comes to which type of missiles have been used. It could be neptun (unlikely) or a missile system such as Sapsan TBM with Tochka-U (with the help from Turkey/Israel). I guess we will find out in the coming weeks.
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So it appears a suicide drone via Ukraine is what has destroyed the Airbase in Crimea. The only question is how much was destroyed and if any planes etc. were also destroyed.
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Ukraine deploying its long-range cigarettes. ;-)
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On August 10 2022 04:13 maybenexttime wrote: Ukraine deploying its long-range cigarettes. ;-) I didn't know Cruella De Vil was sending military support.
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twitter.com any idea on this? (ISW) seems to have been a great stretch of days for Ukraine, lets hope for more.
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Looks like UA used something we don't know about in the public, and almost certainly not Western. It was also BIG.
Edit: Second video:
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Why do you jump to that conclusion? I mean, it being non-Western is not much of a stretch, most armaments used so far are non-Western, but a suicide drone hitting an armament stockpile or even a fuel depot could easily do this. Why would it be some new technology?
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...Well, you see comrade, the explosion of whatever hit the airfield did not damage anything. It did set off some ammunitions and fuel that ravaged our airbase, but whatever ukraine hit us with did absolutely no damage. Weak weapon, very sad. Press briefing over, thank you all for attending.
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It could be: 1. An loitering munition hitting stockpile of weapons (Russians are supposedly notorious for keeping them on air-fields prior to missions) 2. Long range rocket (Unannounced donation or UA made) 3. Drone 4. Sabotage 5. A submarine (yeah i have seen some people suggesting, there was an unannounced donation of submarine towards UA) sounds very far-fetched to me. 6. An accident
I know we shouldn't trust RU, since they called sinking of Moskva an accident and notorious other lies but accidents do happen in war. If UA wont take credit I think it is plausible that this distaster is of Russia's own making.
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Ukraine not wanting to take credit can also be explained by operational security. If they have unknown weapons, or teams inside Russian territory doing these attacks then telling the world about them puts them at greater risk. If Russia doesn't know its better to play dumb and keep Russia in the dark.
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Russia recorded an all time record current account surplus of $167 Billion from January-July, more than triple the $50 billion surplus from the same period last year.Mostly due to high energy prices.
https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/news/russian-oil-and-gas-revenues-help-current-account-surplus-more-than-triple-to-167-billion/amp_articleshow/93461968.cms
Russia's current-account surplus so far in 2022 is more than triple what it was a year ago as energy revenues have skyrocketed, according to the country's central bank.
From January to July, the surplus ballooned to $167 billion, compared to $50 billion for the same period last year and $138.5 billion for the first six months of this year.
Moscow relies heavily on energy revenues, which have been propped up by high prices even as Vladimir Putin's war on Ukraine has caused Western governments and companies to shun Russia.
Despite sanctions aimed at choking off Moscow's revenues and ability to conduct transactions globally, the country still notched a record surplus in the second quarter.
Note also that last month it was reported that in May Germany recorded its first trade deficit since 1991 due to soaring import costs especially fuel and food.
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2022/07/05/germanys-much-vaunted-trade-surplus-disappears-as-import-prices-surge.html
Data released Monday showed that in May, Germany posted a foreign trade deficit of 1 billion euros ($1.03 billion). This marks a significant moment for the German economy, which had reported trade surpluses for several decades. Bloomberg reported that 1991 was the last time the country reported a monthly trade deficit
There is no question that the EU sanctions on Russia are harming the EU and especially Germany far more than they are harming Russia.
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Zurich15313 Posts
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On August 10 2022 18:02 Silvanel wrote:It could be: 1. An loitering munition hitting stockpile of weapons (Russians are supposedly notorious for keeping them on air-fields prior to missions) 2. Long range rocket (Unannounced donation or UA made) 3. Drone 4. Sabotage 5. A submarine (yeah i have seen some people suggesting, there was an unannounced donation of submarine towards UA) sounds very far-fetched to me. 6. An accident I know we shouldn't trust RU, since they called sinking of Moskva an accident  and notorious other lies but accidents do happen in war. If UA wont take credit I think it is plausible that this distaster is of Russia's own making.
Excluding the luckiest chain reaction known to man, we should assume from the videos and especially the range of damage that UA hit the airbase with explosives measured in tons. That's too much for sabotage, drones, etc.
Perhaps a Hrim-2 weapons test?
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United States41961 Posts
On August 10 2022 18:17 iPlaY.NettleS wrote:Russia recorded an all time record current account surplus of $167 Billion from January-July, more than triple the $50 billion surplus from the same period last year.Mostly due to high energy prices. https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/news/russian-oil-and-gas-revenues-help-current-account-surplus-more-than-triple-to-167-billion/amp_articleshow/93461968.cmsShow nested quote + Russia's current-account surplus so far in 2022 is more than triple what it was a year ago as energy revenues have skyrocketed, according to the country's central bank.
From January to July, the surplus ballooned to $167 billion, compared to $50 billion for the same period last year and $138.5 billion for the first six months of this year.
Moscow relies heavily on energy revenues, which have been propped up by high prices even as Vladimir Putin's war on Ukraine has caused Western governments and companies to shun Russia.
Despite sanctions aimed at choking off Moscow's revenues and ability to conduct transactions globally, the country still notched a record surplus in the second quarter.
Note also that last month it was reported that in May Germany recorded its first trade deficit since 1991 due to soaring import costs especially fuel and food. https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2022/07/05/germanys-much-vaunted-trade-surplus-disappears-as-import-prices-surge.htmlShow nested quote + Data released Monday showed that in May, Germany posted a foreign trade deficit of 1 billion euros ($1.03 billion). This marks a significant moment for the German economy, which had reported trade surpluses for several decades. Bloomberg reported that 1991 was the last time the country reported a monthly trade deficit
There is no question that the EU sanctions on Russia are harming the EU and especially Germany far more than they are harming Russia. It's like you literally don't understand what the words you're using mean.
A balance of trade surplus is when you export more than you import. When everyone sanctions the shit out of you and refuses to sell you anything that results in a balance of trade surplus. You wanted trade goods but all you have is currency which you can't spend because nobody will sell you shit.
This is not a good situation to be in. You don't want a huge balance of trade surplus.
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All that’s happening is making Russia more self reliant.Western companies like Coca-Cola abandon the Russian market, People buy some Russian drink instead.The profits stay in Russia instead of going overseas.
Almost anything they can’t make there they buy from China, who already make everything.Their trade will dramatically increase with China and India whilst falling for the west.
The goal of the sanctions was to collapse the Russian economy fast and end the war quickly.A total failure in that regard being we’re 6 months in now.Europe still needs Russian energy and it’s not even winter yet.
The only thing I’m seeing is a shift in power away from the west which is accelerating.
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Was the top Union official in Germany lying then when he stated last month that the countries aluminium, glass and chemical industries could permanently collapse if the gas situation with Russia is not fixed? With costs rising so fast it becomes uneconomic at some stage no?
https://businessinsider.mx/germany-faces-entire-industries-collapse-russia-natural-gas-supply-cuts-2022-7/
"Entire industries are in danger of collapsing permanently because of the gas bottlenecks: aluminum, glass, the chemical industry," Fahimi, the head of the German Federation of Trade Unions, told Bild am Sonntag. "Such a collapse would have massive consequences for the entire economy and jobs in Germany."
The country's energy crisis is already driving inflation to record highs, which threatens social stability, Fahimi told Bild am Sonntag.
Russian state gas giant Gazprom has already cut gas flows to Germany via the key Nord Stream 1 pipeline by 60% from last month, citing an equipment hold-up in Canada as a result of sanctions over the war in Ukraine.
Under the country's emergency plan, industry would be first in line for supply cuts. The move could devastate the economy and lead to job losses, Germany business leaders and unions have said.
Habeck said natural-gas rationing would likely hit factories not connected to the residential networks first, per Bloomberg.
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On August 10 2022 20:44 iPlaY.NettleS wrote: All that’s happening is making Russia more self reliant.Western companies like Coca-Cola abandon the Russian market, People buy some Russian drink instead.The profits stay in Russia instead of going overseas.
Almost anything they can’t make there they buy from China, who already make everything.Their trade will dramatically increase with China and India whilst falling for the west.
The goal of the sanctions was to collapse the Russian economy fast and end the war quickly.A total failure in that regard being we’re 6 months in now.Europe still needs Russian energy and it’s not even winter yet.
The only thing I’m seeing is a shift in power away from the west which is accelerating.
And here I was thinking that Mercantilism went extinct hundreds of years ago... It's like reading fossil records.
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Another issue that's becoming evident is that RU tourists figured out that they can still go on holiday if they cross land borders. While this goes against the spirit of the sanctions, it's becoming a major issue for the small border countries, including my own. The checks need to be thorough for obvious reasons, so RU tourists headed to beach holidays are clogging up the border, stopping local people from going to work, seeing family, etc (there's a lot of cross border movement, and the people harmed are mostly EU citizens in places like Narva).
Here's the Estonian PM asking for an EU wide tourist visa ban, although I think it's a Finnish initiative originally.
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United States41961 Posts
On August 10 2022 20:44 iPlaY.NettleS wrote: All that’s happening is making Russia more self reliant.Western companies like Coca-Cola abandon the Russian market, People buy some Russian drink instead.The profits stay in Russia instead of going overseas.
Almost anything they can’t make there they buy from China, who already make everything.Their trade will dramatically increase with China and India whilst falling for the west.
The goal of the sanctions was to collapse the Russian economy fast and end the war quickly.A total failure in that regard being we’re 6 months in now.Europe still needs Russian energy and it’s not even winter yet.
The only thing I’m seeing is a shift in power away from the west which is accelerating. Again you're just demonstrating a fundamental lack of understanding of the subject.
Let's say Walmart ban you from their stores. This is not an exciting opportunity for you to make your own bread and milk at home, freeing you from the need to give Walmart all your hard earned paycheck. If you wanted to make your own bread you'd be doing that but it's time consuming and takes effort and you already have a different job that pays much better. You don't want to be a baker, you want to take some of your pay and buy your groceries at Walmart.
The trade was mutually beneficial, you specialized in your job, Walmart specialized in groceries, you gave them money and they gave you groceries. Getting banned from the store is not a positive, even if you have more money since you got forced to start waking up at 4am and milking your own cows before work.
The Lada is a classic example of this. Previously they made their money by having land that contained fossil fuels and got to buy top quality German engineering with the passive income from striking oil. They still have all that oil money but now they have to settle for Russian engineering. This is not an upgrade, they didn't want to keep 100% of the oil money, they wanted to keep some of it and also drive a Mercedes.
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