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On August 10 2022 20:44 iPlaY.NettleS wrote:
All that’s happening is making Russia more self reliant.Western companies like Coca-Cola abandon the Russian market, People buy some Russian drink instead.The profits stay in Russia instead of going overseas.
Almost anything they can’t make there they buy from China, who already make everything.Their trade will dramatically increase with China and India whilst falling for the west.
The goal of the sanctions was to collapse the Russian economy fast and end the war quickly.A total failure in that regard being we’re 6 months in now.Europe still needs Russian energy and it’s not even winter yet.
The only thing I’m seeing is a shift in power away from the west which is accelerating.
No, that was not the goal, at least not according to any expert.
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Another bridge in Kherson has been destroyed apparently.
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Well then let's complete Russias road to self sufficiency and let western private persons and companies withdraw their assets. Oh wait that's not allowed, because it'd bomb the Russian economy back to the early 90s.
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United States43671 Posts
On August 10 2022 21:51 r00ty wrote:
Well then let's complete Russias road to self sufficiency and let western private persons and companies withdraw their assets. Oh wait that's not allowed, because it'd bomb the Russian economy back to the early 90s.
In the early 90s they had legacy Soviet era manufacturing capabilities. Since then they've had 30 years of importing everything they need with oil money while domestic manufacturing withered. Russia wishes it had the economy of the early 90s.
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Zurich15362 Posts
On August 10 2022 21:08 iPlaY.NettleS wrote:Was the top Union official in Germany lying then when he stated last month that the countries aluminium, glass and chemical industries could permanently collapse if the gas situation with Russia is not fixed? With costs rising so fast it becomes uneconomic at some stage no? https://businessinsider.mx/germany-faces-entire-industries-collapse-russia-natural-gas-supply-cuts-2022-7/Show nested quote +
"Entire industries are in danger of collapsing permanently because of the gas bottlenecks: aluminum, glass, the chemical industry," Fahimi, the head of the German Federation of Trade Unions, told Bild am Sonntag. "Such a collapse would have massive consequences for the entire economy and jobs in Germany."
The country's energy crisis is already driving inflation to record highs, which threatens social stability, Fahimi told Bild am Sonntag.
Russian state gas giant Gazprom has already cut gas flows to Germany via the key Nord Stream 1 pipeline by 60% from last month, citing an equipment hold-up in Canada as a result of sanctions over the war in Ukraine.
Under the country's emergency plan, industry would be first in line for supply cuts. The move could devastate the economy and lead to job losses, Germany business leaders and unions have said.
Habeck said natural-gas rationing would likely hit factories not connected to the residential networks first, per Bloomberg.
I am happy to revisit this topic once the German economy is collapsing. So far in 2022 it's been growing, while the Russian has been contracting. We don't have any reliable figures for how much. The study I linked estimates anywhere between 5 and 15 percent just this year. Anything in the double digits would be just catastrophic for any economy.
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For those who find academic articles daunting to click on, here's the executive summary:
Five months into the Russian invasion of Ukraine, there remains a startling lack of understanding by many western policymakers and commentators of the economic dimensions of Putin’s invasion, and what it has meant for Russia’s economic positioning both domestically and globally. A common narrative has emerged that this is a “war of economic attrition which is taking its toll on the west,” given the supposed “resilience” and even “prosperity” of the Russian economy. These widely cited narratives are wrong. Far from being “ineffective” or “disappointing,” international sanctions and voluntary business retreats have exerted a crippling effect over Russia’s economy. Our team of experts, using private Russian language and unconventional data sources including high frequency consumer data, cross-channel checks, releases from Russia’s international trade partners, and data mining of complex shipping data, as well as our proprietary dataset tracking the exits of over 1,000 companies, have released one of the first comprehensive economic analyses measuring Russian current economic activity five months into the invasion, and assessing Russia’s economic outlook. From our analysis, it becomes clear: business retreats and sanctions are catastrophically crippling the Russian economy. We tackle a wide range of common misperceptions—and shed light on what is actually going on inside Russia, including: —Russia’s strategic positioning as a commodities exporter has irrevocably deteriorated, as it now deals from a position of weakness with the loss of its erstwhile main markets, and faces steep challenges executing a “pivot to Asia” with non-fungible exports such as piped gas —Despite some lingering leakiness, Russian imports have largely collapsed, and the country faces stark challenges securing crucial inputs, parts, and technology from hesitant trade partners, leading to widespread supply shortages within its domestic economy —Despite Putin’s delusions of self-sufficiency and import substitution, Russian domestic production has come to a complete standstill with no capacity to replace lost businesses, products and talent; the hollowing out of Russia’s domestic innovation and production base has led to soaring prices and consumer angst —As a result of the business retreat, Russia has lost companies representing ~40% of its GDP, reversing nearly all of three decades’ worth of foreign investment and buttressing unprecedented simultaneous capital and population flight in a mass exodus of Russia’s economic base —Putin is resorting to patently unsustainable, dramatic fiscal and monetary intervention to smooth over these structural economic weaknesses, which has already sent his government budget into deficit for the first time in years and drained his foreign reserves even with high energy prices – and Kremlin finances are in much, much more dire straits than conventionally understood —Russian domestic financial markets, as an indicator of both present conditions and future outlook, are the worst performing markets in the entire world this year despite strict capital controls, and have priced in sustained, persistent weakness within the economy with liquidity and credit contracting – in addition to Russia being substantively cut off from international financial markets, limiting its ability to tap into pools of capital needed for the revitalization of its crippled economy Looking ahead, there is no path out of economic oblivion for Russia as long as the allied countries remain unified in maintaining and increasing sanctions pressure against Russia, and The Kyiv School of Economics and McFaul-Yermak Working Group have led the way in proposing additional sanctions measures. Defeatist headlines arguing that Russia’s economy has bounced back are simply not factual. The facts are that, by any metric and on any level, the Russian economy is reeling, and now is not the time to step on the brakes. Source
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On August 10 2022 21:54 KwarK wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On August 10 2022 21:51 r00ty wrote:
Well then let's complete Russias road to self sufficiency and let western private persons and companies withdraw their assets. Oh wait that's not allowed, because it'd bomb the Russian economy back to the early 90s. In the early 90s they had legacy Soviet era manufacturing capabilities. Since then they've had 30 years of importing everything they need with oil money while domestic manufacturing withered. Russia wishes it had the economy of the early 90s.
You're right, I sometimes forget how hard the Russian people were (and still are) robbed sometimes. But the chaos might be the same.
On August 10 2022 22:21 zatic wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On August 10 2022 21:08 iPlaY.NettleS wrote:Was the top Union official in Germany lying then when he stated last month that the countries aluminium, glass and chemical industries could permanently collapse if the gas situation with Russia is not fixed? With costs rising so fast it becomes uneconomic at some stage no? https://businessinsider.mx/germany-faces-entire-industries-collapse-russia-natural-gas-supply-cuts-2022-7/Show nested quote +
"Entire industries are in danger of collapsing permanently because of the gas bottlenecks: aluminum, glass, the chemical industry," Fahimi, the head of the German Federation of Trade Unions, told Bild am Sonntag. "Such a collapse would have massive consequences for the entire economy and jobs in Germany."
The country's energy crisis is already driving inflation to record highs, which threatens social stability, Fahimi told Bild am Sonntag.
Russian state gas giant Gazprom has already cut gas flows to Germany via the key Nord Stream 1 pipeline by 60% from last month, citing an equipment hold-up in Canada as a result of sanctions over the war in Ukraine.
Under the country's emergency plan, industry would be first in line for supply cuts. The move could devastate the economy and lead to job losses, Germany business leaders and unions have said.
Habeck said natural-gas rationing would likely hit factories not connected to the residential networks first, per Bloomberg.
I am happy to revisit this topic once the German economy is collapsing. So far in 2022 it's been growing, while the Russian has been contracting. We don't have any reliable figures for how much. The study I linked estimates anywhere between 5 and 15 percent just this year. Anything in the double digits would be just catastrophic for any economy.
He has a point though. Most burner/extreme heating involved industrial processes run on natural gas in Germany. Even just switching to LNG can be a major investment. We kept producing, but will have to stop some energy intensive processes sooner or later. E.g. in the mentionend industries.
Russia is already strangling the pipeline, our storage is not prepared to power through the winter.
Couple of weeks ago, Scholz said nuclear cannot come back because the delivery time of new rods would be 3.5 years. Well that was some bullshit. My trust in his official statements considering energy safety in Germany is limited.
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Not destroyed. Damaged. I saw video of buses and light military vehicles passing over it after strikes. It is very hard to take bridge out from the air. The same amount of explosives around the pillars would probably do the trick.
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Zurich15362 Posts
On August 10 2022 23:04 r00ty wrote:[ Show nested quote +On August 10 2022 22:21 zatic wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On August 10 2022 21:08 iPlaY.NettleS wrote:Was the top Union official in Germany lying then when he stated last month that the countries aluminium, glass and chemical industries could permanently collapse if the gas situation with Russia is not fixed? With costs rising so fast it becomes uneconomic at some stage no? https://businessinsider.mx/germany-faces-entire-industries-collapse-russia-natural-gas-supply-cuts-2022-7/Show nested quote +
"Entire industries are in danger of collapsing permanently because of the gas bottlenecks: aluminum, glass, the chemical industry," Fahimi, the head of the German Federation of Trade Unions, told Bild am Sonntag. "Such a collapse would have massive consequences for the entire economy and jobs in Germany."
The country's energy crisis is already driving inflation to record highs, which threatens social stability, Fahimi told Bild am Sonntag.
Russian state gas giant Gazprom has already cut gas flows to Germany via the key Nord Stream 1 pipeline by 60% from last month, citing an equipment hold-up in Canada as a result of sanctions over the war in Ukraine.
Under the country's emergency plan, industry would be first in line for supply cuts. The move could devastate the economy and lead to job losses, Germany business leaders and unions have said.
Habeck said natural-gas rationing would likely hit factories not connected to the residential networks first, per Bloomberg.
I am happy to revisit this topic once the German economy is collapsing. So far in 2022 it's been growing, while the Russian has been contracting. We don't have any reliable figures for how much. The study I linked estimates anywhere between 5 and 15 percent just this year. Anything in the double digits would be just catastrophic for any economy. He has a point though. Most burner/extreme heating involved industrial processes run on natural gas in Germany. Even just switching to LNG can be a major investment. We kept producing, but will have to stop some energy intensive processes sooner or later. E.g. in the mentionend industries. Russia is already strangling the pipeline, our storage is not prepared to power through the winter. Couple of weeks ago, Scholz said nuclear cannot come back because the delivery time of new rods would be 3.5 years. Well that was some bullshit. My trust in his official statements considering energy safety in Germany is limited.
I'll be the first to say that Germany's energy policy has been absolutely catastrophic, and left Germany in completely unnecessarily terrible spot this year.
But that doesn't change the fact that the German economy absolutely dwarfs Russia's (never mind the whole of EU!), and that Russia is hurting way more from the sanction regime than Germany and the EU is.
A complete stop of gas flow from Russia would hurt badly, no doubt. But it would cripple Russia. Which is why it won't happen, as long as the West stays firm. The West has the upper hand with the sanctions, and every month they are in place will choke Russia's future ability to wage war. Or, do anything.
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I think that we still have to see the full extent of how the sanctions affect Russia in the long term. In my opinion if this lasts until the end of the year it will set Russia back at least a decade. Any longer than that and we're talking economic damage on a generational scale. While being rich in resources Russia wasn't self-sufficient before and you can't become self-sufficient as a country overnight. Having to switch most of industry to do different things, propping up new industries to fill the void at least somewhat etc. etc.
I think the biggest losses will be in the knowhow department as a lot of researchers and specialists left (and more will follow I assume), that will affect pretty much everything.
I'm also wondering if Russia is capable of creating facilities that would be able to produce the chips they so desperately need now.
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On August 10 2022 18:08 Gorsameth wrote:
Ukraine not wanting to take credit can also be explained by operational security.
If they have unknown weapons, or teams inside Russian territory doing these attacks then telling the world about them puts them at greater risk.
If Russia doesn't know its better to play dumb and keep Russia in the dark.
If it was just a drone with a grenade that got insanely lucky and hit the barrels next to the airfield Command & Conquer style then I can see Ukraine wanting to keep it quiet for as long as possible to scare the Russians into a panic thinking they have some super long range missile they have no intelligence about.
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First images of the Saki Airbase after the attack.
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Whatever that was, it seems to be extremely accurate. Also, multiple blast/impact sites. Since it, probably, wasn't detected by air defense, I guess loitering munition? Maybe lunched by small undercover team somewhere inside Crimea? Or maybe rockets lunched from an unusual angle? Heck, I have no idea.
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Transcript from a supposedly intercepted call of a Russian soldier.
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On August 10 2022 19:37 Ghanburighan wrote:Show nested quote +On August 10 2022 18:02 Silvanel wrote:It could be: 1. An loitering munition hitting stockpile of weapons (Russians are supposedly notorious for keeping them on air-fields prior to missions) 2. Long range rocket (Unannounced donation or UA made) 3. Drone 4. Sabotage 5. A submarine (yeah i have seen some people suggesting, there was an unannounced donation of submarine towards UA) sounds very far-fetched to me. 6. An accident I know we shouldn't trust RU, since they called sinking of Moskva an accident  and notorious other lies but accidents do happen in war. If UA wont take credit I think it is plausible that this distaster is of Russia's own making. Excluding the luckiest chain reaction known to man, we should assume from the videos and especially the range of damage that UA hit the airbase with explosives measured in tons. That's too much for sabotage, drones, etc. Perhaps a Hrim-2 weapons test?
I heard that UA doesn't have what was needed to produce Hrim-2 for themselves. This basically leaves the option of early delivery of US MLRS Atacms. But that raises the question of what happened to the promise of not firing HIMARS onto Russian soil - US accepts that Crimea is fair game? UA fudged and called Russia's bluff regarding tactical nukes?
Whatever it was, the casualty estimates are growing by the hour. This was a massive blow to the Russian southern defence and we should expect the tide to turn even more to UA's favour soon.
UA hit the last bridge, the dam in Nova Kahovka, with precise strikes, all in a line, making sure there's still a narrow path for lighter equipment. Basically saying to the Russians, it's your last chance to get out.
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Crimea is not Russian soil, they just invaded and illegally annexed it. I very much hope that the US does not count Crimea as Russian soil.
Everything that was Ukraine before Russia started nibbling is still legally Ukraine, Ukraine just doesn't control it.
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On August 11 2022 01:35 Manit0u wrote:
I think that we still have to see the full extent of how the sanctions affect Russia in the long term. In my opinion if this lasts until the end of the year it will set Russia back at least a decade. Any longer than that and we're talking economic damage on a generational scale. While being rich in resources Russia wasn't self-sufficient before and you can't become self-sufficient as a country overnight. Having to switch most of industry to do different things, propping up new industries to fill the void at least somewhat etc. etc.
I think the biggest losses will be in the knowhow department as a lot of researchers and specialists left (and more will follow I assume), that will affect pretty much everything.
I'm also wondering if Russia is capable of creating facilities that would be able to produce the chips they so desperately need now.
Nettles has one point though. They don't need to produce everything themselves, they can just go to Chinamart. This obviously will just shift the dependance from the west to the east and is not what Putin wants or claims to want.
Germany is fine so far. I don't think the coming winter will be a big problem for citizens or industry. The question is just how much people and industry are willing to pay and the more success UA has with their counter offenses the less people here are willing to pay insane prices for energy and other stuff and there will be more and more cries to turn on NS2
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I very much hope that a majority of Germans value democracy and freedom enough to recognize that we may need to suffer some minor inconveniences to fight an autocrats war of aggression.
Compared to similar situations in history, we are getting out of this so easily. No German has to go die in Ukraine, we just pay a bit more for energy and send some guns there.
I hope that the population is willing to accept this. We are part of this war, and we need to protect freedom and democracy (now i sound like a crazy american)
Others are dying and having their country blown to pieces. Paying a bit more for energy is the least we can do. Compared to all the shitty pointless wars the US has started over the decades, this is really one that is worth fighting. I believe that the German population will value this over some minor inconveniences.
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EPT
