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On July 20 2022 17:21 Artesimo wrote:Show nested quote +On July 20 2022 16:23 Ghanburighan wrote:On July 20 2022 05:21 Magic Powers wrote:
A Ukrainian counter-offensive right now would be bold, because the weather situation, with it being so hot, demands a pause from both sides. It's very exhausting to fight in this hot weather, which I suspect is another big part of why Russia is hardly progressing at the moment. When the hottest days are over, fighting from the Russian side is likely to resume with full force. By then they might've also solved some of their weapons storing problems.
Ukraine is successfully stalling and causing problems at Russia's supply lines, and I doubt they'll want to risk losing their grip on this already very tense situation by directing more of their attention to the seas.
I don't see RU holding back anything. Like on previous days, yesterday they attempted scouting attacks near Kharkiv, Izjum, and Kramatorsk and actually advanced a bit near Bahmut. They're also sending reserves to the meat grinder that is the defence of Kherson. It's just that RU is running out of manpower and cannot use the stopgap of massive artillery due to HIMARS related logistics disruptions. I would be surprised if Kherson doesn't change hands soon because it's on the wrong side of the river for RU. That seems very optimistic given that Kherson is not on the wrong side of the river for the RU at all. It is extremely important that they have a bridgehead on the western side of the dnipro, both long term (future operations) as well as short term (binding ukrainian forces). I expect them to defend it fiercely and cities make for great defensive positions, and thanks to said river, encircling it will not be practical for ukraine.
There are particular circumstances.
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On July 20 2022 16:23 Ghanburighan wrote:Show nested quote +On July 20 2022 05:21 Magic Powers wrote:
A Ukrainian counter-offensive right now would be bold, because the weather situation, with it being so hot, demands a pause from both sides. It's very exhausting to fight in this hot weather, which I suspect is another big part of why Russia is hardly progressing at the moment. When the hottest days are over, fighting from the Russian side is likely to resume with full force. By then they might've also solved some of their weapons storing problems.
Ukraine is successfully stalling and causing problems at Russia's supply lines, and I doubt they'll want to risk losing their grip on this already very tense situation by directing more of their attention to the seas.
I don't see RU holding back anything. Like on previous days, yesterday they attempted scouting attacks near Kharkiv, Izjum, and Kramatorsk and actually advanced a bit near Bahmut. They're also sending reserves to the meat grinder that is the defence of Kherson. It's just that RU is running out of manpower and cannot use the stopgap of massive artillery due to HIMARS related logistics disruptions. I would be surprised if Kherson doesn't change hands soon because it's on the wrong side of the river for RU.
Where did you read that the defence of Kherson is a meat grinder for Russians?
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On July 20 2022 17:30 Ghanburighan wrote:Show nested quote +On July 20 2022 17:21 Artesimo wrote:On July 20 2022 16:23 Ghanburighan wrote:On July 20 2022 05:21 Magic Powers wrote:
A Ukrainian counter-offensive right now would be bold, because the weather situation, with it being so hot, demands a pause from both sides. It's very exhausting to fight in this hot weather, which I suspect is another big part of why Russia is hardly progressing at the moment. When the hottest days are over, fighting from the Russian side is likely to resume with full force. By then they might've also solved some of their weapons storing problems.
Ukraine is successfully stalling and causing problems at Russia's supply lines, and I doubt they'll want to risk losing their grip on this already very tense situation by directing more of their attention to the seas.
I don't see RU holding back anything. Like on previous days, yesterday they attempted scouting attacks near Kharkiv, Izjum, and Kramatorsk and actually advanced a bit near Bahmut. They're also sending reserves to the meat grinder that is the defence of Kherson. It's just that RU is running out of manpower and cannot use the stopgap of massive artillery due to HIMARS related logistics disruptions. I would be surprised if Kherson doesn't change hands soon because it's on the wrong side of the river for RU. That seems very optimistic given that Kherson is not on the wrong side of the river for the RU at all. It is extremely important that they have a bridgehead on the western side of the dnipro, both long term (future operations) as well as short term (binding ukrainian forces). I expect them to defend it fiercely and cities make for great defensive positions, and thanks to said river, encircling it will not be practical for ukraine. There are particular circumstances. https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1549621051222622209
So we got the potential of disrupting supply lines vs the very big challenge that is urban warfare. Even if the bridge gets blown, there would still be supplies going into kherson. It would be difficult and less effective, but still. Mariupol was completely encircled and got supplied until almost the end. Providing your opponent with a challenge in war tends to lead to them trying to solve it... Not to mention that defensive operations are a lot easier than offensives, so you can expect even the low quality portions of the troops on russian side to perform better here. I start getting cautiously optimistic about the ukrainian offensive when I actually see it manifested and having successes.
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On July 20 2022 17:44 Sent. wrote:Show nested quote +On July 20 2022 16:23 Ghanburighan wrote:On July 20 2022 05:21 Magic Powers wrote:
A Ukrainian counter-offensive right now would be bold, because the weather situation, with it being so hot, demands a pause from both sides. It's very exhausting to fight in this hot weather, which I suspect is another big part of why Russia is hardly progressing at the moment. When the hottest days are over, fighting from the Russian side is likely to resume with full force. By then they might've also solved some of their weapons storing problems.
Ukraine is successfully stalling and causing problems at Russia's supply lines, and I doubt they'll want to risk losing their grip on this already very tense situation by directing more of their attention to the seas.
I don't see RU holding back anything. Like on previous days, yesterday they attempted scouting attacks near Kharkiv, Izjum, and Kramatorsk and actually advanced a bit near Bahmut. They're also sending reserves to the meat grinder that is the defence of Kherson. It's just that RU is running out of manpower and cannot use the stopgap of massive artillery due to HIMARS related logistics disruptions. I would be surprised if Kherson doesn't change hands soon because it's on the wrong side of the river for RU. Where did you read that the defence of Kherson is a meat grinder for Russians?
Rainer Saks has been mentioning increased RU reserves being sent to the region for a while now. I haven't translated as it's a pain to do on the phone.
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On July 20 2022 17:44 Artesimo wrote:Show nested quote +On July 20 2022 17:30 Ghanburighan wrote:On July 20 2022 17:21 Artesimo wrote:On July 20 2022 16:23 Ghanburighan wrote:On July 20 2022 05:21 Magic Powers wrote:
A Ukrainian counter-offensive right now would be bold, because the weather situation, with it being so hot, demands a pause from both sides. It's very exhausting to fight in this hot weather, which I suspect is another big part of why Russia is hardly progressing at the moment. When the hottest days are over, fighting from the Russian side is likely to resume with full force. By then they might've also solved some of their weapons storing problems.
Ukraine is successfully stalling and causing problems at Russia's supply lines, and I doubt they'll want to risk losing their grip on this already very tense situation by directing more of their attention to the seas.
I don't see RU holding back anything. Like on previous days, yesterday they attempted scouting attacks near Kharkiv, Izjum, and Kramatorsk and actually advanced a bit near Bahmut. They're also sending reserves to the meat grinder that is the defence of Kherson. It's just that RU is running out of manpower and cannot use the stopgap of massive artillery due to HIMARS related logistics disruptions. I would be surprised if Kherson doesn't change hands soon because it's on the wrong side of the river for RU. That seems very optimistic given that Kherson is not on the wrong side of the river for the RU at all. It is extremely important that they have a bridgehead on the western side of the dnipro, both long term (future operations) as well as short term (binding ukrainian forces). I expect them to defend it fiercely and cities make for great defensive positions, and thanks to said river, encircling it will not be practical for ukraine. There are particular circumstances. https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1549621051222622209 So we got the potential of disrupting supply lines vs the very big challenge that is urban warfare. Even if the bridge gets blown, there would still be supplies going into kherson. It would be difficult and less effective, but still. Mariupol was completely encircled and got supplied until almost the end. Providing your opponent with a challenge in war tends to lead to them trying to solve it... Not to mention that defensive operations are a lot easier than offensives, so you can expect even the low quality portions of the troops on russian side to perform better here. I start getting cautiously optimistic about the ukrainian offensive when I actually see it manifested and having successes.
That's wise. We'll find out soon.
It's important to remember that Azov prepared for the RU invasion for years, building fortifications and storing supplies. That won't be the case for Kherson. RU does talk about pontoon bridges but I'm not sure how feasible those are. Nobody else seems to take these seriously.
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On July 20 2022 18:00 Ghanburighan wrote:Show nested quote +On July 20 2022 17:44 Artesimo wrote:On July 20 2022 17:30 Ghanburighan wrote:On July 20 2022 17:21 Artesimo wrote:On July 20 2022 16:23 Ghanburighan wrote:On July 20 2022 05:21 Magic Powers wrote:
A Ukrainian counter-offensive right now would be bold, because the weather situation, with it being so hot, demands a pause from both sides. It's very exhausting to fight in this hot weather, which I suspect is another big part of why Russia is hardly progressing at the moment. When the hottest days are over, fighting from the Russian side is likely to resume with full force. By then they might've also solved some of their weapons storing problems.
Ukraine is successfully stalling and causing problems at Russia's supply lines, and I doubt they'll want to risk losing their grip on this already very tense situation by directing more of their attention to the seas.
I don't see RU holding back anything. Like on previous days, yesterday they attempted scouting attacks near Kharkiv, Izjum, and Kramatorsk and actually advanced a bit near Bahmut. They're also sending reserves to the meat grinder that is the defence of Kherson. It's just that RU is running out of manpower and cannot use the stopgap of massive artillery due to HIMARS related logistics disruptions. I would be surprised if Kherson doesn't change hands soon because it's on the wrong side of the river for RU. That seems very optimistic given that Kherson is not on the wrong side of the river for the RU at all. It is extremely important that they have a bridgehead on the western side of the dnipro, both long term (future operations) as well as short term (binding ukrainian forces). I expect them to defend it fiercely and cities make for great defensive positions, and thanks to said river, encircling it will not be practical for ukraine. There are particular circumstances. https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1549621051222622209 So we got the potential of disrupting supply lines vs the very big challenge that is urban warfare. Even if the bridge gets blown, there would still be supplies going into kherson. It would be difficult and less effective, but still. Mariupol was completely encircled and got supplied until almost the end. Providing your opponent with a challenge in war tends to lead to them trying to solve it... Not to mention that defensive operations are a lot easier than offensives, so you can expect even the low quality portions of the troops on russian side to perform better here. I start getting cautiously optimistic about the ukrainian offensive when I actually see it manifested and having successes. That's wise. We'll find out soon. It's important to remember that Azov prepared for the RU invasion for years, building fortifications and storing supplies. That won't be the case for Kherson. RU does talk about pontoon bridges but I'm not sure how feasible those are. Nobody else seems to take these seriously.
And russia has been building defences in kherson for at least over a month now, you don't need to store supplies as excessively when you don't get cut off completely and there are a multitude of alternative ways of supplying. Low altitude supply runs with helicopters, having some kind of boats you use to supply during the night. Pontoon bridges are probably not viable in the long run since they can get easily destroyed, but I would expect it to be possible to have some usable for 1 or 2 days to get heavier equipment in that you can not really transfer via smaller watercraft or chopper.
And that is just some german pleb on the internet brainstorming. I am sure russian logistics has been thinking about this for a while now and come up with solutions. Whenever there are predictions of 'this could lead to this', they always seem to work on the assumption that the other side doesn't do anything about it...
Not to mention that I expect ukraine forces to show far more restraint than russian forces in their attacks and also expect russia to take full advantage of this. They already used a hospital as human shield in mariupol, I expect a whole lot more of this if kherson ends up being besieged by ukraine.
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To the idea posted recently of Putin banking on infighting within the EU as a consequence of economic troubles and such, I think there's very little chance of that helping him out. The idea is valid, but it would be yet another spectacular miscalculation from Putin.
Support for NATO has increased. Increase in support for EU (which was long on the rise) has not slowed down. Support for Russia is very low. Economic fears are great, also fears of the war continuing much longer, but support for Ukraine remains high regardless. The idea of letting some ground be ceded to Russia is not exactly unpopular, but as long as Ukraine wants to continue fighting they're still receiving full support regardless.
https://www.europarl.europa.eu/at-your-service/en/be-heard/eurobarometer/public-opinion-on-the-war-in-ukraine
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On July 20 2022 18:00 Ghanburighan wrote:Show nested quote +On July 20 2022 17:44 Artesimo wrote:On July 20 2022 17:30 Ghanburighan wrote:On July 20 2022 17:21 Artesimo wrote:On July 20 2022 16:23 Ghanburighan wrote:On July 20 2022 05:21 Magic Powers wrote:
A Ukrainian counter-offensive right now would be bold, because the weather situation, with it being so hot, demands a pause from both sides. It's very exhausting to fight in this hot weather, which I suspect is another big part of why Russia is hardly progressing at the moment. When the hottest days are over, fighting from the Russian side is likely to resume with full force. By then they might've also solved some of their weapons storing problems.
Ukraine is successfully stalling and causing problems at Russia's supply lines, and I doubt they'll want to risk losing their grip on this already very tense situation by directing more of their attention to the seas.
I don't see RU holding back anything. Like on previous days, yesterday they attempted scouting attacks near Kharkiv, Izjum, and Kramatorsk and actually advanced a bit near Bahmut. They're also sending reserves to the meat grinder that is the defence of Kherson. It's just that RU is running out of manpower and cannot use the stopgap of massive artillery due to HIMARS related logistics disruptions. I would be surprised if Kherson doesn't change hands soon because it's on the wrong side of the river for RU. That seems very optimistic given that Kherson is not on the wrong side of the river for the RU at all. It is extremely important that they have a bridgehead on the western side of the dnipro, both long term (future operations) as well as short term (binding ukrainian forces). I expect them to defend it fiercely and cities make for great defensive positions, and thanks to said river, encircling it will not be practical for ukraine. There are particular circumstances. https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1549621051222622209 So we got the potential of disrupting supply lines vs the very big challenge that is urban warfare. Even if the bridge gets blown, there would still be supplies going into kherson. It would be difficult and less effective, but still. Mariupol was completely encircled and got supplied until almost the end. Providing your opponent with a challenge in war tends to lead to them trying to solve it... Not to mention that defensive operations are a lot easier than offensives, so you can expect even the low quality portions of the troops on russian side to perform better here. I start getting cautiously optimistic about the ukrainian offensive when I actually see it manifested and having successes. That's wise. We'll find out soon. It's important to remember that Azov prepared for the RU invasion for years, building fortifications and storing supplies. That won't be the case for Kherson. RU does talk about pontoon bridges but I'm not sure how feasible those are. Nobody else seems to take these seriously.
Just watched a video of some NATO exercise with a pontoon bridge. Seemed rather impressive how fast it was built and how durable that bridge was. Obviously the Dnepr is alot bigger though
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On July 20 2022 18:40 Artesimo wrote:Show nested quote +On July 20 2022 18:00 Ghanburighan wrote:On July 20 2022 17:44 Artesimo wrote:On July 20 2022 17:30 Ghanburighan wrote:On July 20 2022 17:21 Artesimo wrote:On July 20 2022 16:23 Ghanburighan wrote:On July 20 2022 05:21 Magic Powers wrote:
A Ukrainian counter-offensive right now would be bold, because the weather situation, with it being so hot, demands a pause from both sides. It's very exhausting to fight in this hot weather, which I suspect is another big part of why Russia is hardly progressing at the moment. When the hottest days are over, fighting from the Russian side is likely to resume with full force. By then they might've also solved some of their weapons storing problems.
Ukraine is successfully stalling and causing problems at Russia's supply lines, and I doubt they'll want to risk losing their grip on this already very tense situation by directing more of their attention to the seas.
I don't see RU holding back anything. Like on previous days, yesterday they attempted scouting attacks near Kharkiv, Izjum, and Kramatorsk and actually advanced a bit near Bahmut. They're also sending reserves to the meat grinder that is the defence of Kherson. It's just that RU is running out of manpower and cannot use the stopgap of massive artillery due to HIMARS related logistics disruptions. I would be surprised if Kherson doesn't change hands soon because it's on the wrong side of the river for RU. That seems very optimistic given that Kherson is not on the wrong side of the river for the RU at all. It is extremely important that they have a bridgehead on the western side of the dnipro, both long term (future operations) as well as short term (binding ukrainian forces). I expect them to defend it fiercely and cities make for great defensive positions, and thanks to said river, encircling it will not be practical for ukraine. There are particular circumstances. https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1549621051222622209 So we got the potential of disrupting supply lines vs the very big challenge that is urban warfare. Even if the bridge gets blown, there would still be supplies going into kherson. It would be difficult and less effective, but still. Mariupol was completely encircled and got supplied until almost the end. Providing your opponent with a challenge in war tends to lead to them trying to solve it... Not to mention that defensive operations are a lot easier than offensives, so you can expect even the low quality portions of the troops on russian side to perform better here. I start getting cautiously optimistic about the ukrainian offensive when I actually see it manifested and having successes. That's wise. We'll find out soon. It's important to remember that Azov prepared for the RU invasion for years, building fortifications and storing supplies. That won't be the case for Kherson. RU does talk about pontoon bridges but I'm not sure how feasible those are. Nobody else seems to take these seriously. And russia has been building defences in kherson for at least over a month now, you don't need to store supplies as excessively when you don't get cut off completely and there are a multitude of alternative ways of supplying. Low altitude supply runs with helicopters, having some kind of boats you use to supply during the night. Pontoon bridges are probably not viable in the long run since they can get easily destroyed, but I would expect it to be possible to have some usable for 1 or 2 days to get heavier equipment in that you can not really transfer via smaller watercraft or chopper. And that is just some german pleb on the internet brainstorming. I am sure russian logistics has been thinking about this for a while now and come up with solutions. Whenever there are predictions of 'this could lead to this', they always seem to work on the assumption that the other side doesn't do anything about it... Not to mention that I expect ukraine forces to show far more restraint than russian forces in their attacks and also expect russia to take full advantage of this. They already used a hospital as human shield in mariupol, I expect a whole lot more of this if kherson ends up being besieged by ukraine.
Feels like you're veering from a lack of optimism into pessimism. Here's major general Harri Ohra-Aho of the Finnish Defence Forces agreeing with the plan.
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Upon receiving news of new ammunition and new shipment of HIMARS to Ukraine, Russia has moved their supply depots further away from the front (doubling the time required to resupply) and sent their whole fleet away.
In other news: Russians have shot down one of their own SU-34M (fighter-bomber), it's one out of ten they have in total and probably another one SU-35 (this one is not confirmed yet).
Economic news: over 120k people went bankrupt in Russia now. That's a 40% increase year-over-year.
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On July 20 2022 20:17 Harris1st wrote:
Just watched a video of some NATO exercise with a pontoon bridge. Seemed rather impressive how fast it was built and how durable that bridge was. Obviously the Dnepr is alot bigger though
Dnepr is over 600m across. Pontoon bridges not very feasible there, especially if they'd be close to the frontline.
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On July 20 2022 20:18 Ghanburighan wrote:Show nested quote +On July 20 2022 18:40 Artesimo wrote:On July 20 2022 18:00 Ghanburighan wrote:On July 20 2022 17:44 Artesimo wrote:On July 20 2022 17:30 Ghanburighan wrote:On July 20 2022 17:21 Artesimo wrote:On July 20 2022 16:23 Ghanburighan wrote:On July 20 2022 05:21 Magic Powers wrote:
A Ukrainian counter-offensive right now would be bold, because the weather situation, with it being so hot, demands a pause from both sides. It's very exhausting to fight in this hot weather, which I suspect is another big part of why Russia is hardly progressing at the moment. When the hottest days are over, fighting from the Russian side is likely to resume with full force. By then they might've also solved some of their weapons storing problems.
Ukraine is successfully stalling and causing problems at Russia's supply lines, and I doubt they'll want to risk losing their grip on this already very tense situation by directing more of their attention to the seas.
I don't see RU holding back anything. Like on previous days, yesterday they attempted scouting attacks near Kharkiv, Izjum, and Kramatorsk and actually advanced a bit near Bahmut. They're also sending reserves to the meat grinder that is the defence of Kherson. It's just that RU is running out of manpower and cannot use the stopgap of massive artillery due to HIMARS related logistics disruptions. I would be surprised if Kherson doesn't change hands soon because it's on the wrong side of the river for RU. That seems very optimistic given that Kherson is not on the wrong side of the river for the RU at all. It is extremely important that they have a bridgehead on the western side of the dnipro, both long term (future operations) as well as short term (binding ukrainian forces). I expect them to defend it fiercely and cities make for great defensive positions, and thanks to said river, encircling it will not be practical for ukraine. There are particular circumstances. https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1549621051222622209 So we got the potential of disrupting supply lines vs the very big challenge that is urban warfare. Even if the bridge gets blown, there would still be supplies going into kherson. It would be difficult and less effective, but still. Mariupol was completely encircled and got supplied until almost the end. Providing your opponent with a challenge in war tends to lead to them trying to solve it... Not to mention that defensive operations are a lot easier than offensives, so you can expect even the low quality portions of the troops on russian side to perform better here. I start getting cautiously optimistic about the ukrainian offensive when I actually see it manifested and having successes. That's wise. We'll find out soon. It's important to remember that Azov prepared for the RU invasion for years, building fortifications and storing supplies. That won't be the case for Kherson. RU does talk about pontoon bridges but I'm not sure how feasible those are. Nobody else seems to take these seriously. And russia has been building defences in kherson for at least over a month now, you don't need to store supplies as excessively when you don't get cut off completely and there are a multitude of alternative ways of supplying. Low altitude supply runs with helicopters, having some kind of boats you use to supply during the night. Pontoon bridges are probably not viable in the long run since they can get easily destroyed, but I would expect it to be possible to have some usable for 1 or 2 days to get heavier equipment in that you can not really transfer via smaller watercraft or chopper. And that is just some german pleb on the internet brainstorming. I am sure russian logistics has been thinking about this for a while now and come up with solutions. Whenever there are predictions of 'this could lead to this', they always seem to work on the assumption that the other side doesn't do anything about it... Not to mention that I expect ukraine forces to show far more restraint than russian forces in their attacks and also expect russia to take full advantage of this. They already used a hospital as human shield in mariupol, I expect a whole lot more of this if kherson ends up being besieged by ukraine. Feels like you're veering from a lack of optimism into pessimism. Here's major general Harri Ohra-Aho of the Finnish Defence Forces agreeing with the plan. https://twitter.com/Ohra_aho/status/1549711471252324353
Wake me up when either the ukrainian counteroffensive is showing results, or something more substantial and nuanced than a single tweet is coming along.
I am willing to bet money that if you asked the guy in person, he would give you a lot more nuanced response that acknowledges all the difficulties and potential of russia to soften the blow of a blown bridge. I don't speak finnish, so I can't even accurately say if he says 'yes this will work' or 'yes this can work' - the latter one being an almost meaningless statement that would not contradict anything that I said.
On July 20 2022 22:47 Manit0u wrote:Show nested quote +On July 20 2022 20:17 Harris1st wrote:
Just watched a video of some NATO exercise with a pontoon bridge. Seemed rather impressive how fast it was built and how durable that bridge was. Obviously the Dnepr is alot bigger though
Dnepr is over 600m across. Pontoon bridges not very feasible there, especially if they'd be close to the frontline.
You can go into google maps and find that its width is anywhere between ~450ish and 900m depending on where you measure, only taking in account the area that borders to the city, with some of the narrower spot being closer to the centre. That is def doable for a pontoon bridge, but I wouldn't expect it to remain in 1 piece for much longer than a day.
Though idk how fast the dnipro flows/how calm its waters are, especially in those narrower areas as that tends to be a bigger deal-breaker for a pontoon bridge
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The Finnish translation is "Seems like a workable operational plan 1) Cut the bridges 2) Attack Kherson and nearby areas. Map favours a successful counterattack by Ukraine. Just worried about which kind of war crimes by Russians will be revealed once again."
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On July 21 2022 02:02 Oukka wrote:
The Finnish translation is "Seems like a workable operational plan 1) Cut the bridges 2) Attack Kherson and nearby areas. Map favours a successful counterattack by Ukraine. Just worried about which kind of war crimes by Russians will be revealed once again."
So it is more on the 'yes this can work' side of things? Either way, thank you very much for clarification/translation.
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Yeah, that's my reading. Setup and situation seems favourable but we'll know whether it is a success only when it happens.
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Good news for Wales, and portions of Ireland. Almost as if trying to stir up domestic options for supporters of Ukraine by weakening them politically.
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Realistically, taking back Kherson will be a very long drawn out affair as long as Russia wants to hold Kherson, which judging that Russian forces have been trying to push out from Kherson as far out as possible, that is the case. Russia had months to supply Kherson and Kherson is their primary supply base in pushing out to take the rest of the Kherson Oblast. Pontoon bridges for either side is not realistic, as long as either side has eyes watching the river bank. Unless there are special forces equipping and training a hitherto hidden Ukrainian resistance, the timeline will be months.
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On July 22 2022 05:24 Dangermousecatdog wrote:
Realistically, taking back Kherson will be a very long drawn out affair as long as Russia wants to hold Kherson, which judging that Russian forces have been trying to push out from Kherson as far out as possible, that is the case. Russia had months to supply Kherson and Kherson is their primary supply base in pushing out to take the rest of the Kherson Oblast. Pontoon bridges for either side is not realistic, as long as either side has eyes watching the river bank. Unless there are special forces equipping and training a hitherto hidden Ukrainian resistance, the timeline will be months.
The Russian troops won't be motivated to fight with low supplies, partisan resistance, and a bridge you can walk across
They are not surrounded, the bridge is working well enough to escape through. This will be looking like a great idea in case the fighting moves to the city
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On July 22 2022 05:24 Dangermousecatdog wrote:
Realistically, taking back Kherson will be a very long drawn out affair as long as Russia wants to hold Kherson, which judging that Russian forces have been trying to push out from Kherson as far out as possible, that is the case. Russia had months to supply Kherson and Kherson is their primary supply base in pushing out to take the rest of the Kherson Oblast. Pontoon bridges for either side is not realistic, as long as either side has eyes watching the river bank. Unless there are special forces equipping and training a hitherto hidden Ukrainian resistance, the timeline will be months.
Whatever the case it seems the fight has started and Ukraine has established a bridgehead, despite Russian attempts to prevent it.
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On the news today they said that in the Luhansk Oblast the Russians have suffered very heavy casualties. Something like 20k wounded and over 6k in critical condition. Not sure if that's just during the recent offensive (that would be crazy) or total from the beginning of the war. In either case those are some pretty scary numbers.
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EPT
