EPTRusso-Ukrainian War Thread - Page 168
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Manit0u
Poland17257 Posts
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{CC}StealthBlue
United States41117 Posts
So if this audio call is to be believed then a Spetsnaz force was basically wiped out in a forest battle. | ||
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Manit0u
Poland17257 Posts
There are shortages of veterinary products. Big thing here is the rabies vaccine. Russia has a very big population of wild dogs and hundreds of thousands of people are bitten every year. The first thing where they'll cut vaccination is the preventive vaccination of wild dogs. They're also considering allowing grocery stores and supermarkets to sell expired products to people. I think that life in Russia, especially in mid-sized towns, will get really hard in a few months. Big cities will likely get priority in the distribution of goods and more rural areas should mostly be self-sustaining for basic needs (depends on how hard they'll be squeezed to relinquish their stuff to feed big cities, but I believe they'll just hide stuff away for their own use). | ||
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Ardias
Russian Federation610 Posts
Confirmed killed at the moment: Colonel Oleh Makarchuk Acting Logistics Commander of the Air Force Command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine https://mnsvu.org/vypuskniki/tretij-tost/makarchuk-oleg-filippovich/ Lieutenant Colonel Kostiantyn Puzyrenko Acting Head of Military and Science Department of the Staff of the Air Force Command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (according to the magazine "Science and technology of the Air force of Ukraine" (pdf download link)) https://rio-berdychiv.info/novini/prigodi/item/20581-vid-raketnoho-udaru-po-vinnytsi-zahynuv-berdychivlianyn.html Colonel Dmytro Burdyko Head of the Armament Maintenance and Repair Department of Anti-Air Missile Forces - Deputy Logistics Commander of the Air Force Command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (according to study program of Ukrainian National Defence University (page 3)) https://cometa-dp.news/v-boju-z-rashistami-zaginuv-polkovnik-dmitro-burdiko/ Since Vinnitsa is home to the Ukrainian Air Force headquarters https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrainian_Air_Force it seems that either the Air Force Command had some meeting in the House of Officers, or it worked as HQ building for Ukrainian Air Force. Since UA reported that 300 people were arrested in Vinnitsa in suspicion of coordinating missile strike, there may be even more high ranking casualties. https://focus.ua/ukraine/522375-sbu-proveryaet-300-chelovek-na-prichastie-k-udaram-po-vinnice Also, according to NYT, drone deal between us and Iran may still be an issue, despite Iran claiming otherwise. Though in couple of months it will be easy to check if these statements are true or not. https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/17/us/politics/drones-ukraine-russia-iran.html | ||
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maybenexttime
Poland5557 Posts
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Ardias
Russian Federation610 Posts
On July 19 2022 07:22 maybenexttime wrote: Did they have a meeting at the mall or what are you trying to say? Not the mall. This building (House of Officers): + Show Spoiler + ![[image loading]](https://topwar.ru/uploads/posts/2022-07/421.jpg) Mall was across the street (the one where Mig-21 is in the picture), either one of the missiles missed/was damaged by AA, or mall was damaged by the blast wave. And yes, either it was one-time meeting, or they were using it as HQ building. But the number of arrests and immediate consequences (Zelensky fired the chief UA prosecutor and the head of the Ukraine Security Service yesterday, the latter one - for multiple security breaches, even though they are childhood friends) leads to the conclusion that this was one-time large leadership meeting, and somebody leaked this info to us. Why large? Due to size of the facility. And if it was permanent HQ, I don't think that there would be that much ruse about it, since people would see people in uniform entering the building regularly. Plus it's a cultural building, I don't think it's well suited for permanent command post. | ||
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{CC}StealthBlue
United States41117 Posts
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Ardias
Russian Federation610 Posts
On July 19 2022 07:46 {CC}StealthBlue wrote: Well... this is interesting. If this indeed does happen how many forces, regular or not, would need.to be sent to prop up a pro-russian government? https://twitter.com/Flash43191300/status/1549086700055453696 https://twitter.com/Flash43191300/status/1549086680870785026 Kadyrov will just probably pull back his guys from Donbass. But even though Kadyrov and his clan certainly have enemies among the Chechen population, many of them fled the country (like those who are fighting for Ukraine), so they would need to get back in somehow, and I don't think Georgia would be too keen to have hundreds of armed men moving through their territory. I doubt that any serious form of guerilla warfare would take place there, it's not 2nd Chechen war. Though certain terror attacks could definetly take place. | ||
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iPlaY.NettleS
Australia4332 Posts
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russias-gazprom-declares-force-majeure-gas-supplies-europe-2022-07-18/ Russia's Gazprom has told customers in Europe it cannot guarantee gas supplies because of "extraordinary" circumstances, according to a letter seen by Reuters, upping the ante in an economic tit-for-tat with the West over Moscow's invasion of Ukraine. The Russian state gas monopoly said in a letter dated July 14 that it was retroactively declaring force majeure on supplies from June 14. The news comes as Nord Stream 1, the key pipeline delivering Russian gas to Germany and beyond, is undergoing 10 days of annual maintenance scheduled to conclude on Thursday. The letter added to fears in Europe that Moscow may not restart the pipeline at the end of the maintenance period in retaliation for sanctions imposed on Russia over the war in Ukraine, heightening an energy crisis that risks tipping the region into recession. | ||
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schaf
Germany1326 Posts
On July 19 2022 17:17 iPlaY.NettleS wrote: Reuter’s Now reporting Gazprom may not turn back on the Europe gas pipeline after 10 day shutdown. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russias-gazprom-declares-force-majeure-gas-supplies-europe-2022-07-18/ Though personally I am in some financial predicament I find this good news. Keeping up the import may be economically preferable but I find it leads to two problems: - prices rise which means we pay Russia more money for less gas - the longer we use the existing pipeline infrastructure the easier it gets to restart importing Russian gas "after the war" ends or after sanctions end. The Russian Federation showed us that we should not be that intertwined economically with them, they are not a reliable partner. | ||
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Harris1st
Germany6929 Posts
On July 19 2022 18:13 schaf wrote: Though personally I am in some financial predicament I find this good news. Keeping up the import may be economically preferable but I find it leads to two problems: - prices rise which means we pay Russia more money for less gas - the longer we use the existing pipeline infrastructure the easier it gets to restart importing Russian gas "after the war" ends or after sanctions end. The Russian Federation showed us that we should not be that intertwined economically with them, they are not a reliable partner. Better to deal with it now in fullforce than to give our politicians the option for band aids now and later rely on Russian gas again. And I don't mean to rely on other gas imports from countries that are not much better than Russia but rather get away from gas alltogether as much as possible | ||
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Deleted User 137586
7859 Posts
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r00ty
Germany1056 Posts
On July 20 2022 00:19 Ghanburighan wrote: And Germans seem to be giving the govt. a green light to reform accordingly. Now we'll see the strength of German lobbying. + Show Spoiler + All good until people can't afford their lifestyle anymore. Don't get me wrong, i'm in full support of Ukraine but I think the thread you posted is more than realistic in its predictions about the western European electorate, politics and how this might end: On July 18 2022 02:27 Ghanburighan wrote: This thread is surprisingly (don't know who the person is) accurate: + Show Spoiler + https://twitter.com/leonidvolkov/status/1548716959369498625 I hope a "bad peace" will not be accepted, but if there's a ceasefire before winter, Ukraine regaining their territory any time soon will be a hard sell. And they should not give up on that. I still think tackling the energy price in a multinational effort (think 9/11+) is the best tool to hurt the Putin regime the most and immediate. But capitalism and autocrats are playing us. | ||
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plasmidghost
Belgium16168 Posts
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Magic Powers
Austria4098 Posts
Ukraine is successfully stalling and causing problems at Russia's supply lines, and I doubt they'll want to risk losing their grip on this already very tense situation by directing more of their attention to the seas. | ||
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Vinekh
131 Posts
In late September the rains will start and the fields will turn to mud. The heavy equipment will be forced to move on the roads and we all know how that turned out for the russians in February and March. | ||
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Deleted User 137586
7859 Posts
On July 20 2022 05:21 Magic Powers wrote: A Ukrainian counter-offensive right now would be bold, because the weather situation, with it being so hot, demands a pause from both sides. It's very exhausting to fight in this hot weather, which I suspect is another big part of why Russia is hardly progressing at the moment. When the hottest days are over, fighting from the Russian side is likely to resume with full force. By then they might've also solved some of their weapons storing problems. Ukraine is successfully stalling and causing problems at Russia's supply lines, and I doubt they'll want to risk losing their grip on this already very tense situation by directing more of their attention to the seas. I don't see RU holding back anything. Like on previous days, yesterday they attempted scouting attacks near Kharkiv, Izjum, and Kramatorsk and actually advanced a bit near Bahmut. They're also sending reserves to the meat grinder that is the defence of Kherson. It's just that RU is running out of manpower and cannot use the stopgap of massive artillery due to HIMARS related logistics disruptions. I would be surprised if Kherson doesn't change hands soon because it's on the wrong side of the river for RU. | ||
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Harris1st
Germany6929 Posts
On July 20 2022 04:27 plasmidghost wrote: If this holds up, we could very well be seeing Crimea finally retaken by Ukraine. I know that with Russia pulling out a ton of their ships from Crimea over the past few days, they might be abandoning the area completely https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1549394916802977795 Does Ukraine have (enough) ships of their own to do this? I guess it could be difficult only doing this by land Ships are kinda hard to supply from their Western allies | ||
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Artesimo
Germany546 Posts
On July 20 2022 16:23 Ghanburighan wrote: I don't see RU holding back anything. Like on previous days, yesterday they attempted scouting attacks near Kharkiv, Izjum, and Kramatorsk and actually advanced a bit near Bahmut. They're also sending reserves to the meat grinder that is the defence of Kherson. It's just that RU is running out of manpower and cannot use the stopgap of massive artillery due to HIMARS related logistics disruptions. I would be surprised if Kherson doesn't change hands soon because it's on the wrong side of the river for RU. That seems very optimistic given that Kherson is not on the wrong side of the river for the RU at all. It is extremely important that they have a bridgehead on the western side of the dnipro, both long term (future operations) as well as short term (binding ukrainian forces). I expect them to defend it fiercely and cities make for great defensive positions, and thanks to said river, encircling it will not be practical for ukraine. | ||
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r00ty
Germany1056 Posts
On July 20 2022 16:29 Harris1st wrote: Does Ukraine have (enough) ships of their own to do this? I guess it could be difficult only doing this by land Ships are kinda hard to supply from their Western allies I think the last ship to speak of they had (a frigate of smaller size) was deliberately sunk by the Ukrainians in the beginning of the invasion to not let it fall into Russian hands. But the Ukraine has their own modern and western anti ship missiles, which can be deployed from shore, small boats, jets or helicopters. When the Moskva was sunk, there were signs of the Russian missile defense failing hard and as many other Russian weapon systems they might be far from as effective as the Russians always claimed. Edit: That's an achievement Putin should be credited with: Completely destroying the myth of the Russians armed forces strength. | ||
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