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EU adds another 500m for UA through the European Peace Facility (EPF), bringing the total to 2bn this year. 500m a month isn't bad...
The Council adopted two assistance measures under the European Peace Facility (EPF) that will allow the EU to further support the capabilities and resilience of the Ukrainian Armed Forces to defend the territorial integrity and sovereignty of the country, and protect the civilian population against the ongoing Russian military aggression. After having adopted three tranches of support totalling 1.5 billion this year, a fourth tranche will add €500 million to the resources already mobilised under the EPF for Ukraine, thereby bringing the total amount to €2 billion. Josep Borrell, High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy: Show nested quote +The history of tomorrow is being written today, on the battlefields of Ukraine. With these €500 million, the EU has allocated a total €2 of billion to support EU member states’ supplies of military equipment to the Ukrainian Armed Forces. This support is just one part of European efforts to help Ukraine defend itself. The EU and its member states are determined to continue. We have done it since the beginning of the war and we will continue until the end. The scope of the equipment to be provided in the new support package is in line with the current priorities as expressed by the Ukrainian government. In this light, the assistance measures consist of €490 million for military equipment designed to deliver lethal force for defensive purposes, as well as €10 million intended to cover the provision of equipment and supplies, such as personal protective equipment, first aid kits, and fuel.
What I don't understand is how they can get so much through the EPF. I thought it was capped at just over 1bn per year. Creative accounting with their total of 5bn until '27? Or did they sneak in a budget increase sometime this year?
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The level of open source info out there is incredible. Public domain satellite photos from nasa can tell you where artillery and missiles have been launched at. There is an open source project that's cataloging unique vehicle losses like tanks and planes.
To give some context on what zelensky is saying the Russians are attacking in the southeast to great a pocket around the donbass. If they take this they can reasonably just sit on the land they hold and wait for the coming famine to force Ukraine to come to the table to give up the land they've taken. Its taking them a really long time to finish this action but even when they create the kettle they might take much longer than they can afford on this.
Because Ukraine has sent it's offensive forces north to secure Kharkiv. The Russians abandoned the luhansk and donesk forces to die as they're not being allowed into Russia for some reason. They are all are encircled effectively so it's a race to finish off the forces in the north before Ukraine can marshall a counter encirclememt in the south. Russia's northern flank is dangerously exposed but has air cover and Ukraine is still busy clearing out the border to the north.
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Is famine for UA forces and people a real danger? I mean the world sends billions in weaponry and arms to UA. Would it be such a stretch to send food and water of all things?
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What? Russian doesn't even hold a quarter of Ukraine, so one would think most of the farmland is still in Ukraine's hands.
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Zurich15329 Posts
Yeah there is no reason to believe that Ukrainians will be out of food outside of extreme cases like right between the frontlines.
However the past few days have definitely shown setbacks for UA. It would be an important victory for Russia if they manage to close the Sieverodonetsk pocket. It would claim all of Luhansk Oblast, drastically shorten the frontline, open up new lines of communication from LNR/DNR toward the Izium region. Not to mention casualties, as I understand the UA troops holding the pocket are considered some of the best.
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Russian Federation610 Posts
On May 25 2022 00:00 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:
What? Russian doesn't even hold a quarter of Ukraine, so one would think most of the farmland is still in Ukraine's hands.
The largest farmlands are in center and southern Ukraine. Russia controls the south. Eastern Ukraine is battleground. In the north there are still a lot of minefields deployed across the area (there were videos of tractors blown up by mines in the fields). Add to that rapidly increasing fuel prices (Ukraine was always a fuel importer, mainly from Russia and Belarus, and their only working oil refinery was repeatedly hit by missiles, so crude oil also won't be an answer) and the fact that before the war Ukraine imported a lot of fertilizers from Belarus and Russia. And one of their own chemical plants is in Severodonetsk, so it won't produce anything.
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On May 25 2022 00:00 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:
What? Russian doesn't even hold a quarter of Ukraine, so one would think most of the farmland is still in Ukraine's hands.
Probably, but safe transport by ship is pretty much impossible, and some farmland/transportation and other things in the North might still be ruined. I also don't know how advisable mass food export is for a country that's currently at war.
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On May 25 2022 00:31 JimmiC wrote:
My understanding on the food issue is it not in the Ukraine but elsewhere because of the inability export with the Black Sea closed. I'm sure between what they have and global support they will be fine. Droughts in other parts of the world, not to mention the countries that are just in a food deficit normally are the ones that will be most impacted.
I agree with you, just to expand a bit.
Ukraine has been a large food exporter. If we in this thread are talking about them as a short term food importer that creates a global imbalance. There has been a lot of warnings about global food shortages and mass starvation killing many many more people than will die directly in this war.
Most people on this forum will not be directly impacted apart from an increase in food prices and losing some variety. This increase in food prices means that regions that imported food previously can no longer afford it, we are basically buying the food they survived on. It is not only this war causing it but it is one of the largest factors.
An example of a warning about this:
https://www.un.org/press/en/2022/sc14894.doc.htm
Around the world, 44 million people in 38 countries are at emergency levels of hunger, he warned, noting the Russian Federation’s invasion of its neighbour has effectively ended Ukraine’s food exports, with price increases of up to 30 per cent for staple foods threatening people in countries across Africa and the Middle East.
Qu Dongyu, Director-General of the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), highlighted that, worldwide, prosperity is being reversed. Agriculture is one of the keys to lasting peace and security, but the last five years have witnessed yet another spike in global levels of acute hunger. Between 2018 and 2021, the number of people in crisis situations who live in countries where conflict was the main driver of acute food insecurity increased by a staggering 88 per cent, to over 139 million.
On the bright side, as I understand it we do have enough food globally to feed everybody. The problem is the distribution and waste which are hard but solvable logistical challenges.
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And thats why its so appaling that UN hasnt kicked out Russia and set up a world wide army to destroy every russian currently on ukrainian ground, if they do not withdraw. This is not an attack on ukraine but an attack to completely destabilise safety in the entire world. Inaction is inexcusable, millions may die in coming months/years.
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On May 25 2022 01:16 Oleo wrote:
And thats why its so appaling that UN hasnt kicked out Russia and set up a world wide army to destroy every russian currently on ukrainian ground, if they do not withdraw. This is not an attack on ukraine but an attack to completely destabilise safety in the entire world. Inaction is inexcusable, millions may die in coming months/years.
This is part of the reason Russia needed this to be quick. Once this turns into Russia preventing Ukraine from feeding the world, suddenly it is lights out. Russia will lose its place in the world forever.
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Wonder how much grain China gets from Ukraine... if any.
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Yea doesn't surprise me, as China has spent BILLIONS in Africa buying huge plots of land, larger than some cities, just for farming.
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Russian Federation610 Posts
https://tradingeconomics.com/china/imports/ukraine
Don't know why figures are different, but I guess it falls under "cereals" category in this chart. If compared to this chart:
https://tradingeconomics.com/china/imports-by-category
Ukraine had around 6% of animal/vegetable oil import in China (no surprise as sunflower and rapeseed oil is the second Ukrainian agricultural export after wheat) and 9,5% of cereals import (I guess it's primarily wheat) in 2021.
Edit - got it. In your chart import figures are as of April 2022. By this month there was no import from Ukraine due to war.
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Yes I am talking of coming famins in the middle east and a knock-on effect of having the fertilizer exports being unavailable for the planting season for other parts of the world.
The damage that Russia has done to infrastructure in Ukraine has cut a significant amount of food to be sold in the world and the incredible difficulty Russia will have in finding markets for their products before things break down, will make it a lot more expensive. Egypt and Bangladesh especially will be hard hit.
There has been many reports of Russia attempting to transport Grain they have stolen through the damaged ports in the areas they control but I do not belive that there will be any desire for Ukraine to ever transport their products through Russian territory to ports that were stolen from them.
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United States42778 Posts
On May 25 2022 01:16 Oleo wrote:
And thats why its so appaling that UN hasnt kicked out Russia and set up a world wide army to destroy every russian currently on ukrainian ground, if they do not withdraw. This is not an attack on ukraine but an attack to completely destabilise safety in the entire world. Inaction is inexcusable, millions may die in coming months/years.
The purpose of the UN is to not do that. The UN was the name of the alliance in WW2 that was expected to ensure postwar international peace (between great powers). War between them was considered unthinkable in the wake of WW2 and so the UN was deliberately designed so that it could never act against the interests of Britain, China, France, US, and USSR. Each has a permanent veto over any UN action and therefore the old alliance cannot act against any of them. Korea was a weird exception because the USSR was refusing to go to the UN and Taiwan was China but the rule still holds.
The purpose of the UN isn’t to stop Russia invading Ukraine, Russia is a great power by UN standards, Ukraine is not. The purpose of the UN is to stop the US leading a UN alliance against Russia. That’s the war it is built to prevent.
The UN is working as designed for this war, it’s just the purpose it was designed for that people don’t like.
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United States42778 Posts
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So with Finland having officially applied for NATO status. Russia is now disputing a few islands that is on their border.
Russia may bring into question the status of the Åland Islands, an autonomous region of Finland that has long been demilitarized, and the Saimaa Canal, which runs partly through land leased from Russia, as the Nordic country attempts to join NATO, according to reports.
Russia has voiced concern over the prospect of Finland and Sweden joining NATO after they were prompted by the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Russia's Permanent Representative to the European Union, Vladimir Chizhov, said Finland's membership in NATO would raise two specific territorial issues, according to a RU News 24 report.
"As for Finland, I immediately have a question on two aspects," the Russian news agency RIA Novosti quoted Chizhov as saying, according to RU News 24. He cited the self-governing Åland Islands, which lie in the Baltic Sea between Sweden and Finland, and the canal, which runs for 27 miles to the city of Vyborg inside Russia.
"That is, it leaves central Finland approximately to Vyborg. What will happen to this now? We'll have to see," Chizhov was reported to have said.
Last week, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov reiterated that Russia would not accept Finland or Sweden joining NATO.
He made the comments to reporters on Monday, relayed through state-owned news agency TASS. He was discussing the news of Sweden's ruling party approving the country's bid to join NATO on Sunday, as well as Finnish politicians calling for their country to join the alliance "without delay."
However, Russian President Vladimir Putin, on the same day, played down Russia's opposition to NATO expansion.
"As for the expansion [of NATO], including through new members of the alliance—Finland, Sweden—Russia wants to inform you that it has no problems with these states," Putin said while speaking at a gathering in Moscow of leaders from the member countries of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), the Russia-backed military alliance.
"Therefore, in this sense, expansion on account of these countries does not pose a direct threat to Russia," he said.
Last week, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov reiterated that Russia would not accept Finland or Sweden joining NATO.
Source
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EPT
