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On May 21 2022 20:02 maybenexttime wrote: Can someone explain what's the difference between EU companies paying in EUR/USD (with the prices set in EUR/USD) and those currencies being converted to RUB on their Gazprombank accounts vs. those companies paying in EUR/USD and Russia doing the conversion elsewhere?
money is never merely money, the domination of US dollar is an economical weapon，that's why euro is EU currency not dollars.
Euro is EU currency because America isn’t in Europe. Why would they use a currency of a different country that is nowhere near them. Please try to think before you post.
I suggest you to read some books on currency wars , it would be helpful to comprehend what I really suggested.
You suggested that the reason the EU doesn’t use the currency of a different unrelated country is because the US dollar is a weapon which implies that were it not a weapon it would be completely rational for them to use the dollar. But presumably not the peso or pound. Your post was nonsense. It starts with the dollar being the assumed default currency for Europe and extrapolates based on an imagined rejection of this default dollar.
If someone is interested in the subject, Bretton woods and the Nixon shock come to mind. Not like he explained how it is related to the thread, but yeah, there are reasons why the EUR exists, and it is not only geographical convenience.
You would never not have your own currency. A currency that has value because it can be used to pay taxes to someone else, a currency someone else can issue debt in, and a currency you can’t print but someone else can is just a bad idea. The Euro exists because no country or bloc would ever just randomly decide to use some foreign unrelated currency as their own official currency.
On May 21 2022 20:02 maybenexttime wrote: Can someone explain what's the difference between EU companies paying in EUR/USD (with the prices set in EUR/USD) and those currencies being converted to RUB on their Gazprombank accounts vs. those companies paying in EUR/USD and Russia doing the conversion elsewhere?
money is never merely money, the domination of US dollar is an economical weapon，that's why euro is EU currency not dollars.
Euro is EU currency because America isn’t in Europe. Why would they use a currency of a different country that is nowhere near them. Please try to think before you post.
I suggest you to read some books on currency wars , it would be helpful to comprehend what I really suggested.
You suggested that the reason the EU doesn’t use the currency of a different unrelated country is because the US dollar is a weapon which implies that were it not a weapon it would be completely rational for them to use the dollar. But presumably not the peso or pound. Your post was nonsense. It starts with the dollar being the assumed default currency for Europe and extrapolates based on an imagined rejection of this default dollar.
If someone is interested in the subject, Bretton woods and the Nixon shock come to mind. Not like he explained how it is related to the thread, but yeah, there are reasons why the EUR exists, and it is not only geographical convenience.
You would never not have your own currency. A currency that has value because it can be used to pay taxes to someone else, a currency someone else can issue debt in, and a currency you can’t print but someone else can is just a bad idea. The Euro exists because no country or bloc would ever just randomly decide to use some foreign unrelated currency as their own official currency.
That is blatantly untrue. Some countries with unstable economies use the Dollar (Ecuador, for instance) or to a lesser extent, the Euro (Kosovo) as their official tender. More still have their own currencies but these are pegged to the more stable one (Saudi Arabia and Cuba to the dollar, for instance).
It doesn't have much to do with why Europe would rather pay for gas in Euros than Rubles, but no need to spread lies in your weird tangent...
The Estonian foreign minister talked about the next round of EU sanctions. Essentially, there's agreement that oil imports will be banned but we're waiting for a solution for inland countries. Hungary is the main one blocking but they're saying that if they get 750m for investments into diversification, they can join the sanctions. Commission has already said that financial support for CZ, HU and SK is being discussed. We'll probably have a solution by the end of May.
loitering BA-2's could put a missile into a sub when it surfaces. The rapid mapping module they have would work better over water than land. the Moskva sank because of a BA-2 providing recon.
I am reading very conflicting points of view in the papers now. The west is accused of cherry picking areas where the Ukrainians do well and underplay their setbacks. The same goes for Russian morale, weapons, Intel etc, some outlets almost give the impression that the war is already over and won, which it certainly isn't. The Russians are no strangers to attrition tactics, and this is far from over! When the war will end will be a bloody and drawn out game of chicken where the most likely outcome is a situation similar to before the invasion, making all of this about exactly nothing.
The last proper supply line (Severodonetsk-Bakhmut highway) is under fire from LPR and Russian forces. Though some contryside roads remain open, it was raining last couple of days, so they are probably not in the best state right now.
On May 24 2022 02:50 JimmiC wrote: Denmark gave the Ukraine harpoon missels and a launcher. I was reading a while ago this could be a game changer because they can hit Russian ships from 300kms away and there is no where to hide in the black sea. I heard lots were considering but did not want to be the first because of reprisals.
This could open up the sea and allow Ukraine to get exports going.
Ukrainian "Neptune" anti-ship missile reportedly already has similar capabilities to Harpoon. But yeah, the more the merrier.
On May 24 2022 03:57 {CC}StealthBlue wrote: Safe bet that there is already Turkish and maybe even US subs in the Black Sea waiting and listening. Then somehow that info gets to Ukraine.
The problem is not even finding our subs, but destroying them. To succesfully hunt submarines you need to have at least partial air or naval control over the area. UA has no naval control over Black Sea and could have partial air control only near the coast, where long-range SAM could supplement their fighter aircraft. The best bet for UA would be sending transports from Odessa as close to the coast to get into Romanian territorial waters ASAP, and use what anti-sub assets they have (UA Naval Aviation has few helos design for anti-submarine warfare) under the cover of long-range SAM and remaining fighter aircraft, which would be also partially protected by SAM launchers, creating multy-layered defence. But to successfully use that route you need the control of Snake island, or our SAM would prevent UA aerial assets from flying and radar/UAVs would provide recon over the area and guide the attack on any ship trying to get through. I believe that is the reason why Ukraine tried to use so much of their assets in attempt to take Snake island on May 8-9.
On May 24 2022 05:00 Slydie wrote: I am reading very conflicting points of view in the papers now. The west is accused of cherry picking areas where the Ukrainians do well and underplay their setbacks. The same goes for Russian morale, weapons, Intel etc, some outlets almost give the impression that the war is already over and won, which it certainly isn't. The Russians are no strangers to attrition tactics, and this is far from over! When the war will end will be a bloody and drawn out game of chicken where the most likely outcome is a situation similar to before the invasion, making all of this about exactly nothing.
War is messy that's why SC has fog of war
But we now know the approximate battle lines. If nothing changes before a cease fire, RU established a land bridge between crimea and Donbas. If UA counterattacks, it might return to pre February borders or pre 2014 borders. Or something in between. The first true hint at the likely outcome will come in the coming weeks when we see the true extent of US and Western support. (mostly US tbh)
On May 24 2022 04:14 Sermokala wrote: loitering BA-2's could put a missile into a sub when it surfaces. The rapid mapping module they have would work better over water than land. the Moskva sank because of a BA-2 providing recon.
At the current distances it probably would not have need to surface. Even if we exclude snorkel, Improved Kilo-class sub (which our Black Sea fleet is equipped with) could travel from Crimea to Snake island and back completely submerged and still have half of its operational range to use.
On May 24 2022 05:00 Slydie wrote: I am reading very conflicting points of view in the papers now. The west is accused of cherry picking areas where the Ukrainians do well and underplay their setbacks. The same goes for Russian morale, weapons, Intel etc, some outlets almost give the impression that the war is already over and won, which it certainly isn't. The Russians are no strangers to attrition tactics, and this is far from over! When the war will end will be a bloody and drawn out game of chicken where the most likely outcome is a situation similar to before the invasion, making all of this about exactly nothing.
A lot of pro-Russian (both official and not) channels were banned from Youtube due to being labeled propaganda, so it's not easy to find info from our side, and I doubt that a lot of people in the West would want to do that anyways. As for your conclusion - yeah, it could very well end like that. Especially with the arrival of winter. I guess plans for integration of the southern Ukraine into Russia is completely in motion, as today the ruble was officially set as a currency in Kherson region. https://www.smallcapnews.co.uk/kherson-region-assumes-the-russian-ruble-with-the-ukrainian-hryvnia/ So our army won't retreat as easy there as from northern Ukraine.
Also spoke with some guys. both irl and via different forums regarding enlistment to the army. They said that they were denied (some due to age, some due to not the best health condition), because there is already a lot of volunteers to sign a contract. This info may be subjective and differ from region to region, but it currently seems that our High Command considers the number of troops in Ukraine sufficient for the task. Though Shoigu few days ago announced that "twelve new combat units will be formed till the end of 2022". Since our Army generally operates in brigades, I assume most of these units will be brigade-sized formations.
People arn't denying that the Russians are making gains in the east but the level of attrition can't be sustainable. We've already seen the effects of Western Artillery systems and how damaging they are to Russian bridging attempts. I don't know where they are going to get the Modern equipment needed to build 24ish BTG's when they are struggling to keep more than 100 in the field. If the Ukranians refuse to end the war the calculus of how much the Russian economy can keep going vs how much equipment the west can just hand them will take hold. The west is already handing over more equipment in value than the yearly russian military budget and a lot of the pieces are wildly cost-effective like the Javalin and NLAW.
If there isn't a massive breakthrough and the Russians flood southern Ukraine with enough conscripts to hold it even then I think the war turns into a bigger political fight as the coming famines spread. Too much grain is supposed to be shipped through the black sea and through Ukrainian ports that simply aren't functioning anymore.
I think Russia wins the battle of popesna and encircles a good amount of Ukrainian troops but this is an action that is taking weeks to complete and is burning through a lot of armored vehicles.
Some more news from the UA side that might sound disturbing (bear in mind that UNIAN is official Ukrainian news agency, so I'm not posting Kremlin propaganda here).
Zelenskiy in Davos said that Russian army has 20 times more combat vehicles on Donbass, than Ukrainian one. This could be an exaggeration to request more supplies from NATO countries, but even if partially true, it indicates significant combat losses from UA side https://t.me/uniannet/56562 Deputies from Zelenskiy's "Servant of the People" party offered a legislative initiative in parliament, that will allow Ukrainians officers to kill their subordinates on sight for disobedience or commiting crimes in combat situation. Previously use of weapon to prevent insubordination and other crimes was allowed, but there was a line: "if it doesn't lead to the death of the serviceman". https://t.me/uniannet/56602
On May 24 2022 10:11 Mohdoo wrote: Where in the world do you guys read all these missile info dumps? Like Sermokala talking about which missiles hit what stuff etc
News, OSINT (open source intelligence) groups and sites, Youtube etc. We in Russia generally use Telegram, because it's not blocked neither by our, nor Western side, so you can read info from both our and Ukrainian channels to get the balanced picture.
On May 24 2022 15:11 Ardias wrote: Some more news from the UA side that might sound disturbing (bear in mind that UNIAN is official Ukrainian news agency, so I'm not posting Kremlin propaganda here).
Zelenskiy in Davos said that Russian army has 20 times more combat vehicles on Donbass, than Ukrainian one. This could be an exaggeration to request more supplies from NATO countries, but even if partially true, it indicates significant combat losses from UA side https://t.me/uniannet/56562 Deputies from Zelenskiy's "Servant of the People" party offered a legislative initiative in parliament, that will allow Ukrainians officers to kill their subordinates on sight for disobedience or commiting crimes in combat situation. Previously use of weapon to prevent insubordination and other crimes was allowed, but there was a line: "if it doesn't lead to the death of the serviceman". https://t.me/uniannet/56602
On May 24 2022 10:11 Mohdoo wrote: Where in the world do you guys read all these missile info dumps? Like Sermokala talking about which missiles hit what stuff etc
News, OSINT (open source intelligence) groups and sites, Youtube etc. We in Russia generally use Telegram, because it's not blocked neither by our, nor Western side, so you can read info from both our and Ukrainian channels to get the balanced picture.
It's not a balanced picture if one side lies and spews other forms of propaganda. It's fine to just ignore statements coming out of RU, because OSINT pretty clearly shows that RU claims about UA losses, for example, are impossible. For the regular person, it's more than sufficient to only take official statements from Putin and Lavrov into account, and leave the rest for analysts.
The "combat losses from UA" side is not implied. Zelenskyy is trying to improve morale by saying that their troops are holding against 20x the equipment. Realistic but foggy estimates say that RU has a 5:1 advantage SE of Severodonetsk. Which is reasonable for the limited advances they've made. But there are already reports, unconfirmed, that RU attacks are no longer as intense as a few days ago, which is in line with the general analysis of the situation. RU still has a few days worth of reserves to throw into the meat-grinder, UA will slowly cede ground to maximize losses on the aggressor, and we'll end up at set artillery battle lines by the end of next week.
Interesting tidbit from Rainer Saks this morning, UA seems happy about the results of the latest Ramstein meeting. What was agreed has not yet been made public, but standby for news.
24 mai kokkuvõte eelneva päeva kohta - vene üksused jätkasid pealetungi Donbassi põhjaosas ja kolmes kohas edensid ka mõnevõrra. Ukraina positisoonidest läbi murda ja luua eeldusi suuremaks edenemiseks siiski veel ei ole. - Harkivi juures rinne seisab ja kuna vene pool peab siia vägesid juurde tooma, võivad ukrainlased ikkagi rahul olla. Harkivi linnani suurtükituli ei näi enam ulatuvat ja vene üksused on keskendunud ukraina positsioonide ründamisele, et hoida ära nende edasiline edenemine ida poole. - Izjumi juures valmistuvad vene üksused jätkuvalt pealetungiks, kuid ei ole suutnud seda veel käima saada. Eks nad iga päev üritavad uuesti. - Severodonetsi ümbruses käivad jätkuvalt kõige ägedamad lahingud ja vene üksused on linnast lõuna pool olnud kohati võimelised mõned kilomeetrid edasi liikuma. Olulisem on siinjuures vene vägedele põhjustatud kaotuste suurus, mis hetkel tunduvad olevat jätkuvalt kõrged. - Donbassi lõunaosas piirduti suurtükiväe duellidega - Lõunarindelgi domineerivad suurtükiväe duellid. Venemaa koondab jätkuvalt Zaproizzija linna suunas ähvarduse loomiseks vägesid. Pigem ootaks siin ukrainlaste tähelepanu hajutamiseks mõeldud rünnaku üritust. Venemaa on liigutanud ka Iskanderi patareisid Ukraina piirile lähemale nii Belgorodi oblastis, kui viimastel päevadel ka Valgevene territooriumil Bresti oblastis. Samtui liigutatakse Musta Mere laevastikku, üritataes jätta muljet suuremast raketilöökide ähvardusest. Tõenäoliselt üritatakse lähimatel päevadel jätta mulje suure pealetungi aktiivsest jätkumisest. See oleks eelkõige täiendav surve avaldamine Ukrainle, et saavutada Severodonetsi juures maksimaalset edu. Ukraina pool ei ole kindlasti murdunud, kuid taandutud on viimase nädala jooksul mõneski kohas. Ramsteinei kohtumise tulemuste kohta arvasid ukrainlased ise, et nad on sellega rahul. Kuigi mingeid väga suuri tarneid välja ei hõigatud, siis jääb ainult arvata, et ukrainlased on saanud midagi, mida veel avalikuks ei tehta.
EPT
