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NOTE: When providing a source, please provide a very brief summary on what it's about and what purpose it adds to the discussion. The supporting statement should clearly explain why the subject is relevant and needs to be discussed. Please follow this rule especially for tweets.
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I've been hearing people say that Putin is ill and could be replaced soon. Are there any replacement candidates at the moment? The article is paywalled and I haven't had a moment to get past it
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Russian Federation610 Posts
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It's foolish to believe rumors about coups. Do you think that for a second, Putin would not immediately order the arrest of those planning the coup, if those rumors were real?
Coups always happen suddenly and without warning, so as to surprise the leader. And to avoid confusion, the capital will be placed under martial law until everything is sorted out. You should see the coup orchestrators take control of government offices and media bureaus.
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A default is all but certain at this point.
WASHINGTON (AP) — The U.S. will close the last avenue for Russia to pay its billions in debt back to international investors on Wednesday, making a Russian default on its debts for the first time since the Bolshevik Revolution all but inevitable.
The Treasury Department said in a notification that does not plan to renew the license that allowed Russia to keep paying its debtholders through American banks.
Since the first rounds of sanctions, the Treasury Department has given banks a license to process any dollar-denominated bond payments from Russia. That window expires at midnight May 25.
There had already been signs that the Biden administration was unwilling to extend the deadline. At a press conference heading into the Group of Seven finance minister meetings in Koenigswinter, Germany, last week, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the window existed “to allow a period of time for an orderly transition to take place, and for investors to be able to sell securities.”
“The expectation was that it was time-limited,” Yellen said.
Without the license to use U.S. banks to pay its debts, Russia would have no ability to repay its international bond investors. The Kremlin has been using JPMorgan Chase and Citigroup as its conduits to pay its obligations.
Jay Auslander, a prominent sovereign debt lawyer who previously litigated other debt crises like the one in Argentina, said at this point most of the institutional investors in Russian debts have likely sold their holdings, knowing this deadline is coming. Those who are still holding the debts are either distressed debt investors or those willing to wait to litigate it out over the next few years.
“The majority who wanted out have gotten out. The only issue is finding buyers,” he said.
The Kremlin appears to have foreseen the likelihood that the U.S. would not allow Russia to keep paying on its bonds. The Russian Finance Ministry prepaid two bonds on Friday that were due this month to get ahead of the May 25 deadline.
The next payments Russia will need to make on its debts are due on June 23. Like other Russian debt, those bonds have a 30-day grace period — which would cause default by Russia to be declared by late July, barring the unlikely scenario that the Russia-Ukraine war would come to an end before then.
Investors have been almost certain of Russia going into default for months now. Insurance contracts that cover Russian debt have priced a 80% likelihood of default for weeks and rating agencies like Standard & Poor’s and Moody’s have placed the country’s debt deep into junk territory.
Russia has not defaulted on its international debts since the 1917 Revolution, when the Russian Empire collapsed and the Soviet Union was created. Russia defaulted on its domestic debts in the late 1990s during the Asian Financial Crisis, but was able to recover from that default with the help of international aid.
A Russian default this time will likely have little-to-minimal impact on the global economy, Auslander said, since Russia has been cut off from global financial markets for months now and investors have been expecting a default. Biden officials have made similar statements.
Once it defaults, the next likely step would be for Russia to turn to U.S., British or European courts to argue that it was forced into default by circumstances beyond its control — a concept in finance known as force majeure — in an effort to restore its standing in global financial markets. It may be difficult to win that argument however, Auslander said, due to the fact that Russia got cut off from financial markets because it chose to invade Ukraine.
Source
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On May 25 2022 07:22 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:A default is all but certain at this point. Show nested quote +WASHINGTON (AP) — The U.S. will close the last avenue for Russia to pay its billions in debt back to international investors on Wednesday, making a Russian default on its debts for the first time since the Bolshevik Revolution all but inevitable.
The Treasury Department said in a notification that does not plan to renew the license that allowed Russia to keep paying its debtholders through American banks.
Since the first rounds of sanctions, the Treasury Department has given banks a license to process any dollar-denominated bond payments from Russia. That window expires at midnight May 25.
There had already been signs that the Biden administration was unwilling to extend the deadline. At a press conference heading into the Group of Seven finance minister meetings in Koenigswinter, Germany, last week, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the window existed “to allow a period of time for an orderly transition to take place, and for investors to be able to sell securities.”
“The expectation was that it was time-limited,” Yellen said.
Without the license to use U.S. banks to pay its debts, Russia would have no ability to repay its international bond investors. The Kremlin has been using JPMorgan Chase and Citigroup as its conduits to pay its obligations.
Jay Auslander, a prominent sovereign debt lawyer who previously litigated other debt crises like the one in Argentina, said at this point most of the institutional investors in Russian debts have likely sold their holdings, knowing this deadline is coming. Those who are still holding the debts are either distressed debt investors or those willing to wait to litigate it out over the next few years.
“The majority who wanted out have gotten out. The only issue is finding buyers,” he said.
The Kremlin appears to have foreseen the likelihood that the U.S. would not allow Russia to keep paying on its bonds. The Russian Finance Ministry prepaid two bonds on Friday that were due this month to get ahead of the May 25 deadline.
The next payments Russia will need to make on its debts are due on June 23. Like other Russian debt, those bonds have a 30-day grace period — which would cause default by Russia to be declared by late July, barring the unlikely scenario that the Russia-Ukraine war would come to an end before then.
Investors have been almost certain of Russia going into default for months now. Insurance contracts that cover Russian debt have priced a 80% likelihood of default for weeks and rating agencies like Standard & Poor’s and Moody’s have placed the country’s debt deep into junk territory.
Russia has not defaulted on its international debts since the 1917 Revolution, when the Russian Empire collapsed and the Soviet Union was created. Russia defaulted on its domestic debts in the late 1990s during the Asian Financial Crisis, but was able to recover from that default with the help of international aid.
A Russian default this time will likely have little-to-minimal impact on the global economy, Auslander said, since Russia has been cut off from global financial markets for months now and investors have been expecting a default. Biden officials have made similar statements.
Once it defaults, the next likely step would be for Russia to turn to U.S., British or European courts to argue that it was forced into default by circumstances beyond its control — a concept in finance known as force majeure — in an effort to restore its standing in global financial markets. It may be difficult to win that argument however, Auslander said, due to the fact that Russia got cut off from financial markets because it chose to invade Ukraine. Source
Can someone explain what this will do in laymens terms?
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On May 25 2022 17:02 Harris1st wrote:Show nested quote +On May 25 2022 07:22 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:A default is all but certain at this point. WASHINGTON (AP) — The U.S. will close the last avenue for Russia to pay its billions in debt back to international investors on Wednesday, making a Russian default on its debts for the first time since the Bolshevik Revolution all but inevitable.
The Treasury Department said in a notification that does not plan to renew the license that allowed Russia to keep paying its debtholders through American banks.
Since the first rounds of sanctions, the Treasury Department has given banks a license to process any dollar-denominated bond payments from Russia. That window expires at midnight May 25.
There had already been signs that the Biden administration was unwilling to extend the deadline. At a press conference heading into the Group of Seven finance minister meetings in Koenigswinter, Germany, last week, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the window existed “to allow a period of time for an orderly transition to take place, and for investors to be able to sell securities.”
“The expectation was that it was time-limited,” Yellen said.
Without the license to use U.S. banks to pay its debts, Russia would have no ability to repay its international bond investors. The Kremlin has been using JPMorgan Chase and Citigroup as its conduits to pay its obligations.
Jay Auslander, a prominent sovereign debt lawyer who previously litigated other debt crises like the one in Argentina, said at this point most of the institutional investors in Russian debts have likely sold their holdings, knowing this deadline is coming. Those who are still holding the debts are either distressed debt investors or those willing to wait to litigate it out over the next few years.
“The majority who wanted out have gotten out. The only issue is finding buyers,” he said.
The Kremlin appears to have foreseen the likelihood that the U.S. would not allow Russia to keep paying on its bonds. The Russian Finance Ministry prepaid two bonds on Friday that were due this month to get ahead of the May 25 deadline.
The next payments Russia will need to make on its debts are due on June 23. Like other Russian debt, those bonds have a 30-day grace period — which would cause default by Russia to be declared by late July, barring the unlikely scenario that the Russia-Ukraine war would come to an end before then.
Investors have been almost certain of Russia going into default for months now. Insurance contracts that cover Russian debt have priced a 80% likelihood of default for weeks and rating agencies like Standard & Poor’s and Moody’s have placed the country’s debt deep into junk territory.
Russia has not defaulted on its international debts since the 1917 Revolution, when the Russian Empire collapsed and the Soviet Union was created. Russia defaulted on its domestic debts in the late 1990s during the Asian Financial Crisis, but was able to recover from that default with the help of international aid.
A Russian default this time will likely have little-to-minimal impact on the global economy, Auslander said, since Russia has been cut off from global financial markets for months now and investors have been expecting a default. Biden officials have made similar statements.
Once it defaults, the next likely step would be for Russia to turn to U.S., British or European courts to argue that it was forced into default by circumstances beyond its control — a concept in finance known as force majeure — in an effort to restore its standing in global financial markets. It may be difficult to win that argument however, Auslander said, due to the fact that Russia got cut off from financial markets because it chose to invade Ukraine. Source Can someone explain what this will do in laymen's terms?
Depends on the details of the default.
At the minimum, it would de facto extend the current sanctions regime until the debts are paid and litigation is over even if the West lifts sanctions.
Most probably, litigation will take years and debtors will try to get their hands on Russian assets. As Russia's state owns a lot of energy infrastructure, that's possibly going to be auctioned off.
Both Russian companies and government will find it very difficult to borrow money from the international community, reducing competitiveness for years if not decades.
Some countries and companies will not trade with Russia afterward out of self-imposed caution.
The cost of the invasion is no longer short-term, as the pain won't stop if sanctions are lifted.
TLDR: Russia's economy would take a hit for years, and its precious energy empire as well.
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It seems the Turkish side came a lot better prepared, unless the Fins and Swedes were just taking notes on what Turkey was demanding in order for them to be allowed into the alliance.
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On May 25 2022 17:02 Harris1st wrote:Show nested quote +On May 25 2022 07:22 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:A default is all but certain at this point. WASHINGTON (AP) — The U.S. will close the last avenue for Russia to pay its billions in debt back to international investors on Wednesday, making a Russian default on its debts for the first time since the Bolshevik Revolution all but inevitable.
The Treasury Department said in a notification that does not plan to renew the license that allowed Russia to keep paying its debtholders through American banks.
Since the first rounds of sanctions, the Treasury Department has given banks a license to process any dollar-denominated bond payments from Russia. That window expires at midnight May 25.
There had already been signs that the Biden administration was unwilling to extend the deadline. At a press conference heading into the Group of Seven finance minister meetings in Koenigswinter, Germany, last week, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the window existed “to allow a period of time for an orderly transition to take place, and for investors to be able to sell securities.”
“The expectation was that it was time-limited,” Yellen said.
Without the license to use U.S. banks to pay its debts, Russia would have no ability to repay its international bond investors. The Kremlin has been using JPMorgan Chase and Citigroup as its conduits to pay its obligations.
Jay Auslander, a prominent sovereign debt lawyer who previously litigated other debt crises like the one in Argentina, said at this point most of the institutional investors in Russian debts have likely sold their holdings, knowing this deadline is coming. Those who are still holding the debts are either distressed debt investors or those willing to wait to litigate it out over the next few years.
“The majority who wanted out have gotten out. The only issue is finding buyers,” he said.
The Kremlin appears to have foreseen the likelihood that the U.S. would not allow Russia to keep paying on its bonds. The Russian Finance Ministry prepaid two bonds on Friday that were due this month to get ahead of the May 25 deadline.
The next payments Russia will need to make on its debts are due on June 23. Like other Russian debt, those bonds have a 30-day grace period — which would cause default by Russia to be declared by late July, barring the unlikely scenario that the Russia-Ukraine war would come to an end before then.
Investors have been almost certain of Russia going into default for months now. Insurance contracts that cover Russian debt have priced a 80% likelihood of default for weeks and rating agencies like Standard & Poor’s and Moody’s have placed the country’s debt deep into junk territory.
Russia has not defaulted on its international debts since the 1917 Revolution, when the Russian Empire collapsed and the Soviet Union was created. Russia defaulted on its domestic debts in the late 1990s during the Asian Financial Crisis, but was able to recover from that default with the help of international aid.
A Russian default this time will likely have little-to-minimal impact on the global economy, Auslander said, since Russia has been cut off from global financial markets for months now and investors have been expecting a default. Biden officials have made similar statements.
Once it defaults, the next likely step would be for Russia to turn to U.S., British or European courts to argue that it was forced into default by circumstances beyond its control — a concept in finance known as force majeure — in an effort to restore its standing in global financial markets. It may be difficult to win that argument however, Auslander said, due to the fact that Russia got cut off from financial markets because it chose to invade Ukraine. Source Can someone explain what this will do in laymens terms?
Its hard to boil it down to laymens terms but international trade depends on the ability of nation-states to obtain and service debt. Oil sales are done in US dollars, because the United states can stop sea trade if it wants to and no one can stop it so we say you have to, and so you need US dollars to conduct trade in oil. To obtain these dollars they need to get a loan from the United states by one way or another. Loan costs are based on how risky it is that you won't be able to pay them back, the united states enjoys negligible loan costs because if the Us defaults on its debt there are much bigger issues in the world than how banks will be repaid. If you default on your debts once its a lot easier to reason that you will do it again.
No russia isn't bankrupt and could pay its debts if it could but the nature of the world is that the United states is unprecedentedly using its power to force another nation to default on its debt. I don't think this has ever happened before and people don't really know what this could mean really.
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Our minister of foreign affairs has said cautiously that the negotiations with Turkey may be "a matter of weeks".
Especially the demanded extraditions are problematic as those decisions are judicial and not political. Normally for extradition to happen Turkey would have to show enough evidence of a crime, that would have been crime in Finland too. Also we would have to be sure, that suspects get fair trial and, that their human rights will not be violated. Currently, I would expect each of these conditions have issues. Now they are basically asking government to interfere and do extraditions regardless. However, as our minister said we could promise to monitor possible contacts more closely.
Our arms deals are review on case-by-case basis so they could probably be accepted in future. However, agreeing to lift embargoes on military exports would be odd, when Erdogan openly plans new incursion into Syria, as the ban began in 2019 when Turkey did their last operation in Syria. I would not be surprised, if the attack in Syria happens, as it seem like great way to rally support in their upcoming elections.
Personally I have hard time imagining this being resolved any time soon as there are clearly quite big trust issues between EU/NATO and Turkey.
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Since Finland and Sweden already have agreements with major components of NATO, they are basically already in NATO in all but name. The negotiations taking weeks isn't a big deal. They won't be attacked, and if they do, NATO will respond. So its basically the same situation now vs later.
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This is true. Strategically NATO can keep Finland and Sweden in a "candidate" stage indefinitely and it wouldn't change anything. there has been significant movement of NATO naval assets into the gulf of finland and an attack on either would trigger an attack on NATO as a whole.
Turkey has always been a political liability but a strategic cornerstone of NATO. Keeping them on the blue team has been the devil's bargain at the heart of its success.
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As I said last week, this whole thing is for Turkey to get special treatment, i.e. More weapons and offensive hardware.
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Having a hard time seeing Turkey as in a bargaining position. After the military guarantees that already exists, who cares if they join NATO? That's basically the whole point of NATO. Finland and Sweden could join in 10 years and nothing would change. I hope France is like "lol you realize we basically already made them part of NATO informally, right?"
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Appearances matter.
Being formally admitted into NATO carries symbolic significance that an informal agreement cannot provide.
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Regardless of NATO status no one in Europe would sit idly by if Sweden or Finland got attacked.
Ukraine is a different matter as it's a young country by European standards and more of a Russian offshoot. To the Russians, them joining NATO is the equivalent of Finland joining the Soviet Union.
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On May 26 2022 11:10 gobbledydook wrote:
Appearances matter.
Being formally admitted into NATO carries symbolic significance that an informal agreement cannot provide.
NATO countries have pledged to engage with Russia if they are attacked. How is it different from being in NATO?
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United States42789 Posts
On May 26 2022 13:25 Mohdoo wrote:Show nested quote +On May 26 2022 11:10 gobbledydook wrote:
Appearances matter.
Being formally admitted into NATO carries symbolic significance that an informal agreement cannot provide.
NATO countries have pledged to engage with Russia if they are attacked. How is it different from being in NATO?
They wouldn’t be able to force every NATO country involved. If Poland is attacked Canada has to go to war. If Finland is attacked and Britain comes to her aid then Britain hasn’t been attacked and Canada can sit it out. The individual pledges are individual commitments that don’t bind other non signatories.
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On May 26 2022 02:56 Sermokala wrote:Show nested quote +On May 25 2022 17:02 Harris1st wrote:On May 25 2022 07:22 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:A default is all but certain at this point. WASHINGTON (AP) — The U.S. will close the last avenue for Russia to pay its billions in debt back to international investors on Wednesday, making a Russian default on its debts for the first time since the Bolshevik Revolution all but inevitable.
The Treasury Department said in a notification that does not plan to renew the license that allowed Russia to keep paying its debtholders through American banks.
Since the first rounds of sanctions, the Treasury Department has given banks a license to process any dollar-denominated bond payments from Russia. That window expires at midnight May 25.
There had already been signs that the Biden administration was unwilling to extend the deadline. At a press conference heading into the Group of Seven finance minister meetings in Koenigswinter, Germany, last week, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the window existed “to allow a period of time for an orderly transition to take place, and for investors to be able to sell securities.”
“The expectation was that it was time-limited,” Yellen said.
Without the license to use U.S. banks to pay its debts, Russia would have no ability to repay its international bond investors. The Kremlin has been using JPMorgan Chase and Citigroup as its conduits to pay its obligations.
Jay Auslander, a prominent sovereign debt lawyer who previously litigated other debt crises like the one in Argentina, said at this point most of the institutional investors in Russian debts have likely sold their holdings, knowing this deadline is coming. Those who are still holding the debts are either distressed debt investors or those willing to wait to litigate it out over the next few years.
“The majority who wanted out have gotten out. The only issue is finding buyers,” he said.
The Kremlin appears to have foreseen the likelihood that the U.S. would not allow Russia to keep paying on its bonds. The Russian Finance Ministry prepaid two bonds on Friday that were due this month to get ahead of the May 25 deadline.
The next payments Russia will need to make on its debts are due on June 23. Like other Russian debt, those bonds have a 30-day grace period — which would cause default by Russia to be declared by late July, barring the unlikely scenario that the Russia-Ukraine war would come to an end before then.
Investors have been almost certain of Russia going into default for months now. Insurance contracts that cover Russian debt have priced a 80% likelihood of default for weeks and rating agencies like Standard & Poor’s and Moody’s have placed the country’s debt deep into junk territory.
Russia has not defaulted on its international debts since the 1917 Revolution, when the Russian Empire collapsed and the Soviet Union was created. Russia defaulted on its domestic debts in the late 1990s during the Asian Financial Crisis, but was able to recover from that default with the help of international aid.
A Russian default this time will likely have little-to-minimal impact on the global economy, Auslander said, since Russia has been cut off from global financial markets for months now and investors have been expecting a default. Biden officials have made similar statements.
Once it defaults, the next likely step would be for Russia to turn to U.S., British or European courts to argue that it was forced into default by circumstances beyond its control — a concept in finance known as force majeure — in an effort to restore its standing in global financial markets. It may be difficult to win that argument however, Auslander said, due to the fact that Russia got cut off from financial markets because it chose to invade Ukraine. Source Can someone explain what this will do in laymens terms? Its hard to boil it down to laymens terms but international trade depends on the ability of nation-states to obtain and service debt. Oil sales are done in US dollars, because the United states can stop sea trade if it wants to and no one can stop it so we say you have to, and so you need US dollars to conduct trade in oil. To obtain these dollars they need to get a loan from the United states by one way or another. Loan costs are based on how risky it is that you won't be able to pay them back, the united states enjoys negligible loan costs because if the Us defaults on its debt there are much bigger issues in the world than how banks will be repaid. If you default on your debts once its a lot easier to reason that you will do it again. No russia isn't bankrupt and could pay its debts if it could but the nature of the world is that the United states is unprecedentedly using its power to force another nation to default on its debt. I don't think this has ever happened before and people don't really know what this could mean really.
You don't need to take loans to get US dollars. Exporting oil and gas is what gets Russia hard currency. As you point out oil is traded in USD so whenever they sell oil they get USD. They're still able to trade in dollars. The US can cut you off from dollar trading iirc but I'm not sure of the particulars and it hasn't happened yet. A default just cuts off your access to international capital markets but not many international investors were willing to lend to Russia anyway due to earlier sanctions.
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On May 26 2022 04:16 Mohdoo wrote:
Since Finland and Sweden already have agreements with major components of NATO, they are basically already in NATO in all but name. The negotiations taking weeks isn't a big deal. They won't be attacked, and if they do, NATO will respond. So its basically the same situation now vs later.
That's not quite how this works. They have vague promises from some NATO members. UA had the whole Budapest Memorandum and nobody lifted a finger to help it.
Inside NATO, FI and SE aren't even admitted in the room during most discussions at the moment, and that goes for double on command and planning. So there's a great deal of integration still required both on equipment and planning before any common defense becomes feasible.
But the bright side is that TR inside NATO always makes a fuss about everything, and after it has gotten its usual face-saving concessions, it lets everyone do their jobs. The Finnish prediction of a few weeks seems pretty reasonable.
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EPT
