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NOTE: When providing a source, please provide a very brief summary on what it's about and what purpose it adds to the discussion. The supporting statement should clearly explain why the subject is relevant and needs to be discussed. Please follow this rule especially for tweets.

Your supporting statement should always come BEFORE you provide the source.
Silvanel
Profile Blog Joined March 2003
Poland4730 Posts
May 26 2022 07:09 GMT
#2601
On May 26 2022 15:37 Ghanburighan wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 26 2022 04:16 Mohdoo wrote:
Since Finland and Sweden already have agreements with major components of NATO, they are basically already in NATO in all but name. The negotiations taking weeks isn't a big deal. They won't be attacked, and if they do, NATO will respond. So its basically the same situation now vs later.


That's not quite how this works. They have vague promises from some NATO members. UA had the whole Budapest Memorandum and nobody lifted a finger to help it.


I would like to, again, point out, that there is no mention in the Budapest Memorandum of coming to Ukraine's Aid in case of it being attacked. There is only mention that signatories itself refrain from threatening or attacking Ukraine. Only Russia broke that promise.
Guarantees and assurances are something different. They of course also can be void. Like the one Soviet Union gave to Vietnam.
Pathetic Greta hater.
Deleted User 137586
Profile Joined January 2011
7859 Posts
May 26 2022 07:21 GMT
#2602
On May 26 2022 16:09 Silvanel wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 26 2022 15:37 Ghanburighan wrote:
On May 26 2022 04:16 Mohdoo wrote:
Since Finland and Sweden already have agreements with major components of NATO, they are basically already in NATO in all but name. The negotiations taking weeks isn't a big deal. They won't be attacked, and if they do, NATO will respond. So its basically the same situation now vs later.


That's not quite how this works. They have vague promises from some NATO members. UA had the whole Budapest Memorandum and nobody lifted a finger to help it.


I would like to, again, point out, that there is no mention in the Budapest Memorandum of coming to Ukraine's Aid in case of it being attacked. There is only mention that signatories itself refrain from threatening or attacking Ukraine. Only Russia broke that promise.
Guarantees and assurances are something different. They of course also can be void. Like the one Soviet Union gave to Vietnam.


Yeah, did not mean to imply the Budapest Memorandum was a security guarantee. But it's telling that the US didn't even try to initiate action in the Security Council as the treaty obligation stands. Would have been vetoed, but they didn't even fulfill the bare minimum.
Cry 'havoc' and let slip the dogs of war
{CC}StealthBlue
Profile Blog Joined January 2003
United States41117 Posts
May 27 2022 00:36 GMT
#2603
Apparently much requested weapons could be sent starting next week.

"Smokey, this is not 'Nam, this is bowling. There are rules."
iPlaY.NettleS
Profile Blog Joined June 2010
Australia4334 Posts
May 27 2022 02:38 GMT
#2604
Putin offers to avert the global wheat and fertiliser shortage if western sanctions are lifted.Seems unlikely, so expect higher food prices.


https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/05/26/russia-ready-to-help-overcome-food-crisis-if-west-lifts-sanctions-putin-a77818

Moscow is ready to make a "significant contribution" to averting a looming food crisis if the West lifts sanctions imposed on Russia over Ukraine, President Vladimir Putin said in a telephone call with Italy's Prime Minister Mario Draghi.

"Vladimir Putin emphasizes that the Russian Federation is ready to make a significant contribution to overcoming the food crisis through the export of grain and fertilizer, subject to the lifting of politically motivated restrictions by the West," the Kremlin said in a statement following the call.

Russia was slapped with unprecedented sanctions after Putin ordered troops into neighboring Ukraine on February 24.

The sanctions and military action have disrupted supplies of fertilizer, wheat, and other commodities from both Russia and Ukraine.

The two countries produce 30 percent of the global wheat supply.

Similar article from Bloomberg that was paywalled for me, but may not be for you : https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-26/putin-ties-grain-exports-to-demand-that-sanctions-on-russia-go
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e7PvoI6gvQs
JimmiC
Profile Blog Joined May 2011
Canada22817 Posts
May 27 2022 02:52 GMT
#2605
--- Nuked ---
Deleted User 137586
Profile Joined January 2011
7859 Posts
Last Edited: 2022-05-27 09:45:32
May 27 2022 09:43 GMT
#2606
Legal experts have come to the conclusion that RU is inciting genocide, this can legally compel states to act to stop the atrocities.


Leading experts accuse Russia of inciting genocide in Ukraine and intending to 'destroy' Ukrainian people

Russia's actions in Ukraine provide enough evidence to conclude that Moscow is inciting genocide and committing atrocities intended to destroy the Ukrainian people, according to the first independent report into allegations of genocide in that country.

The legal report, signed by more than 30 leading legal scholars and genocide experts, accuses the Russian state of violating several articles of the United Nations Genocide Convention. It warns there is a serious and imminent risk of genocide in Ukraine, backing the accusations with a long list of evidence including examples of mass killings of civilians, forced deportations and dehumanizing anti-Ukrainian rhetoric used by top Russian officials.

The report was put together by New Lines Institute for Strategy and Policy, a US-based think tank, and the Raoul Wallenberg Centre for Human Rights which is based in Canada, and is set to release on Friday, with the authors sending copies to parliaments, governments and international organizations around the world. An advance copy of the report has been shared exclusively with CNN.

"We assembled top legal experts from around the globe who then examined all the evidence and they came to the conclusion that the Russian Federation bears responsibility for breaches of the Genocide Convention in Ukraine," Azeem Ibrahim of the New Lines Institute told CNN. Ibrahim visited Ukraine in March to gather evidence for the report.

"This is a very thorough and detailed examination of extensive evidence," he said. "What we have seen so far is that this war is genocidal in its nature, in terms of the language being used and the manner in which it is being executed. That's very, very clear."

Under the UN Genocide Convention, its signatories have a legal obligation to prevent genocide -- and the report is urging the international community to act.

"We have no time at all, we believe that there is a very serious risk of genocide," Ibrahim said. "Every country that is a signatory to the Genocide Convention, and that's 151 countries including the Russian Federation, every country has to do whatever it can to put a stop to this, otherwise they will also be in breach of the convention."

In one of the most chilling parts of the report, the group makes a direct comparison with the 1995 Srebrenica massacre, urging the world to act before it's too late: "The details of the mass murder of over 7,000 Bosnian Muslim boys and men in Srebrenica only emerged before the international community when it was too late to prevent a genocide that occurred in a matter of days. In 2022, we have the capabilities to accurately track similar atrocities as they unfold and respond accordingly."

The report points finger directly at Moscow, accusing Russia's top officials of orchestrating incitement to genocide and laying the groundwork for future genocide by repeatedly denying the existence of a Ukrainian identity.

The Kremlin has forcefully disagreed with President Joe Biden's statement in April that he considered Russia's actions in Ukraine a "genocide."

Show nested quote +

Here's what 'genocide' means and why it's so hard to prove

Genocide means any of the following acts committed with intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnical, racial or religious group, as such:

- Killing members of the group;
- Causing serious bodily or mental harm to members of the group;
- Deliberately inflicting on the group conditions of life calculated to bring about its physical destruction in whole or in part;
- Imposing measures intended to prevent births within the group;
- Forcibly transferring children of the group to another group.
Source: Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide



The New Lines and Raoul Wallenberg Centre report says the Russian state is breaching Article II and Article III (c) of the Genocide Convention. Article II of the convention states genocide is an attempt to commit acts "with an intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnical, racial or religious group." Article III (c) concerns the "direct and public incitement to commit genocide."

As examples of the evidence that Russia is breaching the convention, the experts highlight repeated statements made by Russia's President Vladimir Putin who has made it clear he believes Ukraine has no right to exist as an independent state.

They also point to the dehumanizing language used by top Russian officials to describe Ukrainians -- including worlds like "bestial," "subordinate" and "filth" -- as well as their portrayal of Ukraine as a "Nazi state" and an "existential threat" to Russia.

But the report goes further than alleging Russia is intending to commit genocide, accusing Russian forces of carrying out a "pattern of consistent and pervasive atrocities against Ukrainian civilians collectively" in the course of the invasion.

It says that the well-documented massacres and summary executions in Bucha, Staryi Bykiv, and in Sumy and Chernihiv regions, Russia's deliberate attacks on shelters, evacuation routes and healthcare facilities, as well the indiscriminate targeting and bombardment of residential areas, rapes, sieges, grain thefts and forced deportations to Russia all amount to "genocidal pattern of destruction."

CNN has independently confirmed many of the atrocities mentioned in the report.

The New Lines Institute and Raoul Wallenberg Centre have previously investigated the Rohingya and Uyghur genocides in Myanmar and China respectively, and produced the first report that determined that China's actions in Xinjiang constituted genocide under the Genocide Convention.

The team of authors includes David Scheffer, who played a pivotal role in talks establishing the International Criminal Court as the first ever US Ambassador at Large for War Crimes Issues.

Canada's former ambassador to the UN Allan Rock and Charles Taku, the lead counsel at the International Criminal Tribunal for Rwanda and Special Court for Sierra Leone were also involved.

Apart from legal scholars and genocide experts, the team assembled by New Lines Institute also includes open source intelligence investigators, and linguists who examined a communications intercepts and testimonials.
Source
Cry 'havoc' and let slip the dogs of war
Oleo
Profile Joined April 2010
Netherlands279 Posts
May 27 2022 14:44 GMT
#2607
On May 27 2022 11:38 iPlaY.NettleS wrote:
Putin offers to avert the global wheat and fertiliser shortage if western sanctions are lifted.Seems unlikely, so expect higher food prices.


https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/05/26/russia-ready-to-help-overcome-food-crisis-if-west-lifts-sanctions-putin-a77818
Show nested quote +

Moscow is ready to make a "significant contribution" to averting a looming food crisis if the West lifts sanctions imposed on Russia over Ukraine, President Vladimir Putin said in a telephone call with Italy's Prime Minister Mario Draghi.

"Vladimir Putin emphasizes that the Russian Federation is ready to make a significant contribution to overcoming the food crisis through the export of grain and fertilizer, subject to the lifting of politically motivated restrictions by the West," the Kremlin said in a statement following the call.

Russia was slapped with unprecedented sanctions after Putin ordered troops into neighboring Ukraine on February 24.

The sanctions and military action have disrupted supplies of fertilizer, wheat, and other commodities from both Russia and Ukraine.

The two countries produce 30 percent of the global wheat supply.

Similar article from Bloomberg that was paywalled for me, but may not be for you : https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-26/putin-ties-grain-exports-to-demand-that-sanctions-on-russia-go


Casual, "would you like to join me in my war crimes?"-proposal from our fascist friends.(Steal Ukrainian foodstocks and sell it) Such a disgusting people, hopefully UN will wake up quickly and start to grow some backbone, starting with kicking out the fascists that piss all over chapter 1 of their charter.
Managing Siegetanks is like raising a superhero - Artosis.
Yurie
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
11854 Posts
May 27 2022 15:02 GMT
#2608
On May 27 2022 23:44 Oleo wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 27 2022 11:38 iPlaY.NettleS wrote:
Putin offers to avert the global wheat and fertiliser shortage if western sanctions are lifted.Seems unlikely, so expect higher food prices.


https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/05/26/russia-ready-to-help-overcome-food-crisis-if-west-lifts-sanctions-putin-a77818

Moscow is ready to make a "significant contribution" to averting a looming food crisis if the West lifts sanctions imposed on Russia over Ukraine, President Vladimir Putin said in a telephone call with Italy's Prime Minister Mario Draghi.

"Vladimir Putin emphasizes that the Russian Federation is ready to make a significant contribution to overcoming the food crisis through the export of grain and fertilizer, subject to the lifting of politically motivated restrictions by the West," the Kremlin said in a statement following the call.

Russia was slapped with unprecedented sanctions after Putin ordered troops into neighboring Ukraine on February 24.

The sanctions and military action have disrupted supplies of fertilizer, wheat, and other commodities from both Russia and Ukraine.

The two countries produce 30 percent of the global wheat supply.

Similar article from Bloomberg that was paywalled for me, but may not be for you : https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-26/putin-ties-grain-exports-to-demand-that-sanctions-on-russia-go


Casual, "would you like to join me in my war crimes?"-proposal from our fascist friends.(Steal Ukrainian foodstocks and sell it) Such a disgusting people, hopefully UN will wake up quickly and start to grow some backbone, starting with kicking out the fascists that piss all over chapter 1 of their charter.


The purpose of the UN as made doesn't align with kicking out bad actors in most cases. They want everybody to be there and be part of the discussion. They don't really have any mandate to act on anything if a nation says no, regardless of if it makes sense or not.
JimmiC
Profile Blog Joined May 2011
Canada22817 Posts
May 27 2022 16:11 GMT
#2609
--- Nuked ---
KwarK
Profile Blog Joined July 2006
United States42789 Posts
May 27 2022 16:11 GMT
#2610
Most of the countries obliged to prevent genocide in Ukraine are already actively aiding Ukraine and the kinds of weapons being given are escalating.
ModeratorThe angels have the phone box
Oleo
Profile Joined April 2010
Netherlands279 Posts
May 27 2022 18:10 GMT
#2611
On May 28 2022 00:02 Yurie wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 27 2022 23:44 Oleo wrote:
On May 27 2022 11:38 iPlaY.NettleS wrote:
Putin offers to avert the global wheat and fertiliser shortage if western sanctions are lifted.Seems unlikely, so expect higher food prices.


https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/05/26/russia-ready-to-help-overcome-food-crisis-if-west-lifts-sanctions-putin-a77818

Moscow is ready to make a "significant contribution" to averting a looming food crisis if the West lifts sanctions imposed on Russia over Ukraine, President Vladimir Putin said in a telephone call with Italy's Prime Minister Mario Draghi.

"Vladimir Putin emphasizes that the Russian Federation is ready to make a significant contribution to overcoming the food crisis through the export of grain and fertilizer, subject to the lifting of politically motivated restrictions by the West," the Kremlin said in a statement following the call.

Russia was slapped with unprecedented sanctions after Putin ordered troops into neighboring Ukraine on February 24.

The sanctions and military action have disrupted supplies of fertilizer, wheat, and other commodities from both Russia and Ukraine.

The two countries produce 30 percent of the global wheat supply.

Similar article from Bloomberg that was paywalled for me, but may not be for you : https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-26/putin-ties-grain-exports-to-demand-that-sanctions-on-russia-go


Casual, "would you like to join me in my war crimes?"-proposal from our fascist friends.(Steal Ukrainian foodstocks and sell it) Such a disgusting people, hopefully UN will wake up quickly and start to grow some backbone, starting with kicking out the fascists that piss all over chapter 1 of their charter.


The purpose of the UN as made doesn't align with kicking out bad actors in most cases. They want everybody to be there and be part of the discussion. They don't really have any mandate to act on anything if a nation says no, regardless of if it makes sense or not.


Really? The charter seems pretty clear when it comes to intervention:

The Purposes of the United Nations are:
To maintain international peace and security, and to that end: to take effective collective measures for the prevention and removal of threats to the peace, and for the suppression of acts of aggression or other breaches of the peace...

After that it talks about peaceful solutions, but that seems to reference to preventive measures.

And also on membership:
Article 6: A Member of the United Nations which has persistently violated the Principles contained in the present Charter may be expelled from the Organization by the General Assembly upon the recommendation of the Security Council.

Of course the veto is kinda in the way, but....
Managing Siegetanks is like raising a superhero - Artosis.
Sermokala
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
United States13957 Posts
May 27 2022 21:53 GMT
#2612
On May 28 2022 01:11 JimmiC wrote:
The Russians have been making gains the last few days. The UA really needs this higher tech heavier arms to push them back when they are undermanned.

https://ca.yahoo.com/news/stop-playing-russia-end-war-020307748.html

Most of what energy I would put into keeping up on the whats happening in Ukraine has been wiped out by the recent shooting but this has been going on for 2 weeks now and I've been posting about it the whole time. The Russians made a breakthrough in order to take control of a critical road that supplied a salient to the best defendable position in the Donbass. Its taken them two weeks or so now to move a few kilometers through the breakthrough they made. They've lost multiple BTG's in failed bridging attempts that may or may not have been done by the new N777's from America they got recently. Ukraine pushed them back and can still use the highway but its in range of artillery now and Ukraine needs to evacuate their forces before getting encircled.
A wise man will say that he knows nothing. We're gona party like its 2752 Hail Dark Brandon
Sermokala
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
United States13957 Posts
May 28 2022 21:18 GMT
#2613
The new units mentioned by ardias that Russia is forming to send in is probably real and will be using t-62s it seems. Those are some extremely old tanks but they aren't decrepit and if ukrain has atgms capable of popping t-90m's without much issue they aren't losing an extreme amount of viability with it. They can reuse most of their training regime with them as it was the first to use an auto loader to only have 3 men per tank.
A wise man will say that he knows nothing. We're gona party like its 2752 Hail Dark Brandon
JimmiC
Profile Blog Joined May 2011
Canada22817 Posts
Last Edited: 2022-05-28 21:21:25
May 28 2022 21:21 GMT
#2614
--- Nuked ---
Sent.
Profile Joined June 2012
Poland9201 Posts
May 28 2022 22:23 GMT
#2615
It's good to know that Odessa is safer, but there's no way Ukraine will open up its ports before this war ends. To be honest it was ridiculous that at least some parts of the Russian command believed taking Odessa from the sea was possible after failing to capture Mykolaiv. That was like ling rushing and hoping the Protoss won't bother to wall their natural.

Everyone's eyes should be on Sievierodonetsk now, where artillery, tanks, and jets are needed.
You're now breathing manually
Deleted User 137586
Profile Joined January 2011
7859 Posts
May 29 2022 09:13 GMT
#2616
On May 29 2022 07:23 Sent. wrote:
It's good to know that Odessa is safer, but there's no way Ukraine will open up its ports before this war ends. To be honest it was ridiculous that at least some parts of the Russian command believed taking Odessa from the sea was possible after failing to capture Mykolaiv. That was like ling rushing and hoping the Protoss won't bother to wall their natural.

Everyone's eyes should be on Sievierodonetsk now, where artillery, tanks, and jets are needed.


There's a negotiated possibility. UA counter-attacked near Kherson towards the canals which feed water to Crimea. This might just be a feint to reduce pressure in Donbas, but if UA can turn off the water to Crimea again, there's something to bargain in exchange for food exports by sea. It's highly speculative, though.

As for Severodonetsk, that is the only place where RU still has reserves to attack, but they appear to be losing initiative without being able to close off logistics to the city. In the end, UA is trying to cause as much attrition as possible before a counterattack later. So it doesn't really matter whether they give up Severodonetsk or not (in fact, it reduces the length of their defensive lines). But due to the political importance of the city to RU, it's a good place where to have intense fights to reduce RU capabilities. RU seems to be behind on recruitment, so UA will receive considerably more reserves soon-ish, but RU will probably need to even temporarily reduce its presence for current officers to train their reserves.

The crucial thing is for UA not to be forced to declare a cease-fire allowing RU to catch up in recruitment.
Cry 'havoc' and let slip the dogs of war
Ardias
Profile Joined January 2014
Russian Federation610 Posts
May 29 2022 11:58 GMT
#2617
On May 29 2022 06:18 Sermokala wrote:
The new units mentioned by ardias that Russia is forming to send in is probably real and will be using t-62s it seems. Those are some extremely old tanks but they aren't decrepit and if ukrain has atgms capable of popping t-90m's without much issue they aren't losing an extreme amount of viability with it. They can reuse most of their training regime with them as it was the first to use an auto loader to only have 3 men per tank.

Correction - T-62s don't use autoloader, the first Soviet tank to employ those was T-64. Also T-62M version (which is the only one remaining in service) isn't much older that Polish T-72M1 sent to Ukraine, though I stand somewhat corrected about Polish tanks, Poland also had some of T-72M1 upgraded to T-72M1R standard, employing thermal sight, new engine, and communication system. They were supposed to finish modernization of the remaining T-72M1 fleet from 2020 by 2025, so I guess around 30-40% are upgraded to this standard by now. I've also heard rumors that T-72M1Rs sent to Ukraine had their thermals being removed, but no solid proof of that.
Though yeah, T-62M isn't modern tank by any means. And I doubt the ones spotted at Melitopol are used for new Russian combat units (those would be probably created and based in the western parts of Russia, bordering Belarus and Ukraine. My guess these are sent to replace the losses of DPR tank formations. Also T-62Ms were actively used by the troops of South Military District in Chechen wars and Georgian war, so I guess it isn't first combat deployment of these particular batch of tanks.
Mess with the best or die like the rest.
{CC}StealthBlue
Profile Blog Joined January 2003
United States41117 Posts
May 29 2022 13:14 GMT
#2618
Russian forces have been push backed several miles from the key supply point in Donbas.

"Smokey, this is not 'Nam, this is bowling. There are rules."
Manit0u
Profile Blog Joined August 2004
Poland17276 Posts
May 29 2022 13:34 GMT
#2619
I think the closed ports in UA are a big issue but it's not insurmountable. They can still export wheat and other products via longer routes (like moving it through Poland for example). Sure, this would of course affect the prices as you have more ground to cover and delivery times might be longer but it's not like the exports would be cut off completely.
Time is precious. Waste it wisely.
Sermokala
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
United States13957 Posts
May 29 2022 16:12 GMT
#2620
On May 29 2022 20:58 Ardias wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 29 2022 06:18 Sermokala wrote:
The new units mentioned by ardias that Russia is forming to send in is probably real and will be using t-62s it seems. Those are some extremely old tanks but they aren't decrepit and if ukrain has atgms capable of popping t-90m's without much issue they aren't losing an extreme amount of viability with it. They can reuse most of their training regime with them as it was the first to use an auto loader to only have 3 men per tank.

Correction - T-62s don't use autoloader, the first Soviet tank to employ those was T-64. Also T-62M version (which is the only one remaining in service) isn't much older that Polish T-72M1 sent to Ukraine, though I stand somewhat corrected about Polish tanks, Poland also had some of T-72M1 upgraded to T-72M1R standard, employing thermal sight, new engine, and communication system. They were supposed to finish modernization of the remaining T-72M1 fleet from 2020 by 2025, so I guess around 30-40% are upgraded to this standard by now. I've also heard rumors that T-72M1Rs sent to Ukraine had their thermals being removed, but no solid proof of that.
Though yeah, T-62M isn't modern tank by any means. And I doubt the ones spotted at Melitopol are used for new Russian combat units (those would be probably created and based in the western parts of Russia, bordering Belarus and Ukraine. My guess these are sent to replace the losses of DPR tank formations. Also T-62Ms were actively used by the troops of South Military District in Chechen wars and Georgian war, so I guess it isn't first combat deployment of these particular batch of tanks.

My bad yeah I was looking up the different models and got lost along the way it seems. Yeah I've seen more of it and some people think that they're going to be buried in dirt and used as ready made replacement where needed, because...

A counter attack from Ukraine has appeared but it's not going after the luhansk salient it's going after south Ukraine possibly to drive to the sea. Kherson seems like the major target after a successful river crossing. Might be a fient but going on an offensive as far away from Russia proper seems like a good idea.

Lots of resources being thrown at the luhansk salient by the Russians. Ukraine hasn't cracked and anything Russia "gains" will be rubble and explosive filled wasteland. I predict that they will consolidate after this battle and start sueing for peace to make people tell Ukraine to give up land.
A wise man will say that he knows nothing. We're gona party like its 2752 Hail Dark Brandon
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