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NOTE: When providing a source, please provide a very brief summary on what it's about and what purpose it adds to the discussion. The supporting statement should clearly explain why the subject is relevant and needs to be discussed. Please follow this rule especially for tweets. Your supporting statement should always come BEFORE you provide the source. | ||
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Manit0u
Poland17187 Posts
On May 30 2022 02:39 Poegim wrote: Polish radio informed that Poland provided 18 polish newest AHS Krab (crab) self-propelled tracked gun-howitzer 155mm for Ukraine. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AHS_Krab Not just that. They basically sent enough equipment to kit out 2 full armored brigades and some scout drones too. | ||
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Deleted User 137586
7859 Posts
On May 31 2022 00:52 PhoenixVoid wrote: Biden says he won't send long-range MLRS (max range of 300km) to Ukraine out of fear they could strike Russia and escalate NATO's role, but the admin appear to be leaning towards short-range rockets (max range around 70km) instead. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61627316 Biden is not a reliable witness  Wait and see what will actually be sent.Also, even with the stuff being discussed, they're striking in Bayraktar range. Nobody is discussing Moscow range. | ||
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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pmh
1351 Posts
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Deleted User 137586
7859 Posts
They also agreed to cut Russia's largest bank Sberbank from Swift (massive on energy purchases) Source. EU leaders agreed late Monday night on a political deal to impose sanctions on Russian oil imports. “Agreement to ban export of Russian oil to the EU,” European Council President Charles Michel tweeted from a leaders’ summit in Brussels. “This immediately covers more than 2/3 of oil imports from Russia, cutting a huge source of financing for its war machine.” The Council of the EU must still formally agree on the sanctions. The compromise will allow Russia’s pipeline oil exports to the EU to continue temporarily, while seaborne shipments are blocked by the end of the year, as European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced earlier this month. Von der Leyen tweeted that the leaders’ agreement “will effectively cut around 90% of oil imports from Russia to the EU by the end of the year.” Germany and Poland, which could benefit from the pipeline exemption, have committed themselves to a de facto shutdown of the northern Druzhba pipeline, several EU diplomats said. There is also an agreement to “complete the [closure of the] southern branch as soon as possible,” an Elysée official said. The southern leg of the pipeline delivers oil to Slovakia, Hungary and the Czech Republic. An EU official said the Czech Republic got an 18-month exemption from the ban to cover the resale of oil products. Hungary has also ensured an there is an emergency provision to ensure the security of supply if their pipeline deliveries are cut off, EU diplomats said. Slapping an embargo on Russian oil would be one of Europe’s most significant steps in restricting the revenue available to President Vladimir Putin to wage war in Ukraine. But the proposed move was held up for several weeks by Hungary, which argued its economy would be hammered by a blanket ban. Source Good thread on the FR (and DE) position: | ||
zatic
Zurich15313 Posts
Does anyone have source about the composure of the Russian forces deployed in Ukraine? Casualties only say so much, do we know where the forces come from? I am asking because I would assume that Moscow would try to send as few European Russians as possible into Ukraine. | ||
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Ardias
Russian Federation605 Posts
On May 31 2022 16:30 zatic wrote: Very interesting thread on A) the ratio of casualties by origin of Russian troops and B) some (speculative) reasoning about the special role of Chechen forces in Russia in general. https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1531238266283900932 Does anyone have source about the composure of the Russian forces deployed in Ukraine? Casualties only say so much, do we know where the forces come from? I am asking because I would assume that Moscow would try to send as few European Russians as possible into Ukraine. The reason is more simple than that. Russian army in Ukraine is made entirely (or almost entirely) our of contract (professional) troops. The main source of manpower for them are regions with high percentage of rural population and lower economic development. It's often dificult to get good education, as well as find work with a decent pay in a countryside or small towns, so many young people from there try their luck in the army (you don't need education to go there and pay is good enough by general Russian standards). And most national republics (not including those in the Northern Russia with ton of oil and gas) within Russian Federation have exactly that - high percentage of rural population and lower economic development. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_federal_subjects_of_Russia_by_GDP_per_capita You can check GDP per capita of different Russian regions, and many regions mentioned in that twitter post will be presented in the lowest sections. This is further confirmed by the fact that casualty rate for inhabitants of Moscow is so much lower. It's much easier to find a good job in Moscow, so very few people who live there, sign a contract with the army. Chechens are indeed special, because most of the Chechens, who want to enlist professionally, go to Kadyrov troops, not regular army. And Kadyrov troops are not exactly Army, they are part of National Guard - internal troops meant to deal with insurgency, terrorism, large scale protests etc. Their main job was counter-terrorism in Chechnya and Caucasus (and being power tool for Kadyrov ofc), hence in Ukraine they are mostly second-line troops, charged with mop-up after the first line suppressed main resistance. Other regions do not have such "one nation army", they are more or less equally dispesed around Russian army overall. | ||
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Elroi
Sweden5585 Posts
That being said, it would be interesting to compare the death rates of these groups of people with the composition of the deployed forces in general to see if they are dying at a higher rate. | ||
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Deleted User 137586
7859 Posts
![[image loading]](https://i.imgur.com/XVHb36R.png) Source A few words on the Estonian delivery, we didn't disclose the number, but I think we had 24 total (bought from Germany when they upgraded to PzH 2000) and we're upgrading to South Korean K9s, so we might end up just shipping all of them. There are more countries involved than in the list, for example, the FH-70s we sent get their ammunition from Finland. | ||
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Gahlo
United States35091 Posts
On May 31 2022 16:30 zatic wrote: Very interesting thread on A) the ratio of casualties by origin of Russian troops and B) some (speculative) reasoning about the special role of Chechen forces in Russia in general. https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1531238266283900932 Does anyone have source about the composure of the Russian forces deployed in Ukraine? Casualties only say so much, do we know where the forces come from? I am asking because I would assume that Moscow would try to send as few European Russians as possible into Ukraine. Also, is this casualties as common parlance for fatalities, or actual casualties? | ||
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Gina
241 Posts
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Deleted User 137586
7859 Posts
On May 31 2022 21:44 Gina wrote: Here's another link: https://zona.media/translate/2022/05/20/casualties_eng - here the casualties counted are indeed fatalities, and they show how the number of casualties relates to the median income in a region. That's an awesome resource. Thanks for sharing. This is only confirmed kills, with a self-proclaimed bias towards officers (1/5 of the total, which is way too much, but officers receive more attention so they're more likely to be confirmed). But one would expect St. Petersburg and Moscow to be over-represented due to the large numbers of officers, but yet Moscow has only 30 deaths per 11m residents. In contrast, Dagestan has 159 per 3m, Buryatia has 117 per 1m, Volgograd 96 per 1m, etc etc. | ||
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Ardias
Russian Federation605 Posts
On May 31 2022 21:58 Ghanburighan wrote: That's an awesome resource. Thanks for sharing. This is only confirmed kills, with a self-proclaimed bias towards officers (1/5 of the total, which is way too much, but officers receive more attention so they're more likely to be confirmed). But one would expect St. Petersburg and Moscow to be over-represented due to the large numbers of officers, but yet Moscow has only 30 deaths per 11m residents. In contrast, Dagestan has 159 per 3m, Buryatia has 117 per 1m, Volgograd 96 per 1m, etc etc. Why would you think that officers en masse would be from Moscow and St. Petersburg? Education in military academies is mostly funded by budget, so money isn't the case. And the fact that most academies are in Moscow and St. Petersburg doesn't mean that a lot of their cadets will be from these cities. In fact, military service is unpopular among youth in there, so academies generally filled with people from all over country. Plus officers are mosty living (and being registered) in the regions where their unit is assigned to at the time of peace. So I doubt there would be a lot of Moscow/St. Petersburg residents on the frontline even among the officer corps. Regarding large number of officer casualities - it could be somewhat true, as Russian army do not posses such refined and reliable NCO corps as, for example, US, since up to the early 2010-s army was mostly conscripted, so most of the sergeants were conscripts as well, except for the most senior NCOs, but these were generally assigned to supply and maintenance duty on a company/battalion level, as drill instructors or in specialized formations (like Spetsnaz). So there are a lot of officers in different positions, especially in the areas with higher tech equipment (Air force, Air Defence, Navy, tactical and strategic missiles, electronic warfare plus different recon and special forces units). Plus due to issues with communication and military traditions, they tend to lead from the front more often that their US counterparts. Speaking of exact numbers - in 2020 Shoigu announced that number of professional soldiers (it does not include officer corps, only enlisted and sergeants) had reached 400 000 men, and should be increased to 500 000 by 2027 (so it could be around 430 000 before the war, since new combat units have been organized in last few years). For last couple of years each conscription (there are two per year) states the requirment of around 135 000 men to be enlisted. Conscripted service is 1 year, so 2 conscription cycles give us around 270 000 conscripts at any present moment in the army. Russian army is about 1 million in number (according to the latest Military Balance magazine), so approximate number of officers and higher command staff could be around 300 000 men. | ||
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Deleted User 137586
7859 Posts
On May 31 2022 23:04 Ardias wrote: Why would you think that officers en masse would be from Moscow and St. Petersburg? Education in military academies is mostly funded by budget, so money isn't the case. And the fact that most academies are in Moscow and St. Petersburg doesn't mean that a lot of their cadets will be from these cities. In fact, military service is unpopular among youth in there, so academies generally filled with people from all over country. Plus officers are mosty living (and being registered) in the regions where their unit is assigned to at the time of peace. So I doubt there would be a lot of Moscow/St. Petersburg residents on the frontline even among the officer corps. + Show Spoiler + Regarding large number of officer casualities - it could be somewhat true, as Russian army do not posses such refined and reliable NCO corps as, for example, US, since up to the early 2010-s army was mostly conscripted, so most of the sergeants were conscripts as well, except for the most senior NCOs, but these were generally assigned to supply and maintenance duty on a company/battalion level, as drill instructors or in specialized formations (like Spetsnaz). So there are a lot of officers in different positions, especially in the areas with higher tech equipment (Air force, Air Defence, Navy, tactical and strategic missiles, electronic warfare plus different recon and special forces units). Plus due to issues with communication and military traditions, they tend to lead from the front more often that their US counterparts. Speaking of exact numbers - in 2020 Shoigu announced that number of professional soldiers (it does not include officer corps, only enlisted and sergeants) had reached 400 000 men, and should be increased to 500 000 by 2027 (so it could be around 430 000 before the war, since new combat units have been organized in last few years). For last couple of years each conscription (there are two per year) states the requirment of around 135 000 men to be enlisted. Conscripted service is 1 year, so 2 conscription cycles give us around 270 000 conscripts at any present moment in the army. Russian army is about 1 million in number (according to the latest Military Balance magazine), so approximate number of officers and higher command staff could be around 300 000 men. Oh, just an educated guess  Basically, officers, especially higher ranks, generally require better education. As most good universities are in Moscow or St. Petersburg, they'd probably be from there. Furthermore, people generally end up higher up in the ranks if their generational, i.e., sons of generals, etc. So, as their parents would end up in Moscow and St. Petersburg, they'd be from those regions. Feel free to correct me if I'm wrong. | ||
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Sermokala
United States13736 Posts
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Deleted User 137586
7859 Posts
On June 01 2022 01:56 Sermokala wrote: The obvious reason why a lot of casualties haven't come from some reasons is their closeness to Ukraine. How much are you going to trust soldiers in battle that have family and friends on the other side or live within 100km of Ukraine? Remember "liberating russian speakers" was a clear part of the message, if goes to say that leveling those "russian speakers" homes might make their family members unhappy. If you look at Gina's link, you'll see that quite a few people came from Rostov, Crimea, Belgorod, etc. | ||
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Oukka
Finland1683 Posts
On June 01 2022 02:17 Ghanburighan wrote: If you look at Gina's link, you'll see that quite a few people came from Rostov, Crimea, Belgorod, etc. Is it people stationed there or people born there? I didn't see that distinction and the conclusions might be quite different depending on the answer to that question. | ||
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Deleted User 137586
7859 Posts
On June 01 2022 03:05 Oukka wrote: Is it people stationed there or people born there? I didn't see that distinction and the conclusions might be quite different depending on the answer to that question. Excellent question, re-reading it, I found this fragment: 'large number of military units located in these regions,'. That's only a factor if the region where they serve matters. It's not conclusive, though, as these larger numbers might be drafted locally. | ||
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Manit0u
Poland17187 Posts
- gymnasium required to enlist in the army (junior high? I'm not certain about other countries equivalents as this changed in Poland, during my time we had 8 years of primary school and 4 years of highschool and after I graduated they changed it to 6 + 3 + 3) - finished highschool to become an NCO (corporal up to ensign rank equivalent I believe) - masters degree equivalent to become an officer (junior lieutenant and above) Also, military academies in Poland are some of the best universities we have and are generally rather hard to get into. There's Military Technical Academy for the ground forces that gives you master engineer degree, Air Force University and Naval Academy. You can also enlist in those universities as a civilian as they have courses for that too. | ||
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zatic
Zurich15313 Posts
I found this analysis of the evolution of Ukrainian artillery tactics since 2014 very interesting. By the Austrian military, in German, but English subtitles available. The entire series by the same institution is very well done and recommended. | ||
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