Russo-Ukrainian War Thread - Page 132

On May 29 2022 06:21 JimmiC wrote:
The Harpoons from Denmark and self propelled howitzers from the Us have arrived. Hopefully they can open up their ports.

Probably an overly optimistic quote but we shall see.



https://ca.yahoo.com/finance/news/rpt-1-ukraine-receives-missiles-202453468.html

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The Biden administration’s secret planning began in April 2021 when Russia massed about 100,000 troops on the Ukrainian border. The buildup turned out to be a feint, but Blinken and other officials discussed U.S. intelligence about Russia’s actions with leaders of Britain, France and Germany at a NATO meeting in Brussels that month. Their message was, “We need to get ourselves prepared,” a senior State Department official said.

Germany was a reluctant but essential ally, and the Biden administration made a controversial decision last summer that was probably crucial in gaining German support against Russia. Biden gave Germany a pass on an initial round of sanctions against a company building the Nord Stream 2 pipeline in exchange for a pledge from Chancellor Angela Merkel that if Russia invaded, Nord Stream 2 would be scrapped. When the invasion came, Merkel was gone but her successor, Olaf Scholz, kept the promise.

...

The Ukraine threat got red-hot in October, when the United States gathered intelligence about a renewed Russian buildup on the border, along with “some detail about what Russian plans for those forces actually were,” Blinken said. This operational detail “was really the eye opener.” The Group of 20 nations were meeting at the end of October in Rome, and Biden pulled aside the leaders of Britain, France and Germany and gave them a detailed readout on the top-secret evidence.

...

CIA Director William J. Burns traveled to Moscow on Nov. 1 to warn President Vladimir Putin that the United States and its allies were prepared to arm Ukraine and impose crippling sanctions on Russia if he invaded. Putin apparently thought Biden wouldn’t be able to deliver.

Persuading Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to take the invasion danger seriously wasn’t easy, initially. Blinken spoke to him at the COP 21 climate summit in Glasgow in early November and provided a summary of intelligence about Russia’s plans. “I basically had the task of telling him that we thought it was likely that his country was going to be invaded,” Blinken recalled. Zelensky was skeptical, according to a State Department official.

Threatening sanctions can be an empty diplomatic ritual. But in December, Blinken and his colleagues began seriously discussing with allies what steps they would take. The initial venue was a Group of Seven foreign ministers meeting in Liverpool, England, on Dec. 11. The attendees publicly committed that there would be “massive consequences and severe costs,” Blinken remembered. As a result, he said, “when the aggression actually happened, we were able to move immediately.”

NATO military planning accelerated along with the diplomacy. Air Force Gen. Tod Wolters, the NATO commander, told me that his colleagues began preparing in December and January the “ground lines of communication” that would allow rapid shipment of arms into Ukraine. They studied entry points for supplies and other practical details. This weapons pipeline delivered Stinger and Javelin missiles before the invasion began Feb. 24 and has transferred huge numbers of heavier weapons since then.

U.S. intelligence provided Ukraine with a preview of Putin’s battle plan. Though Russia had surrounded Ukraine with 150,000 troops, Putin’s real strategy was a lightning, decapitating strike on Kyiv by a relatively small group of elite special forces. The Russians planned to seize Antonov Airport in Hostomel, west of the capital, and then use it to quickly pump troops into Kyiv.

The Ukrainians knew the Russians were coming. Burns had secretly traveled to Kyiv in January to brief Zelensky on the Russian plan, according to two knowledgeable officials. The Ukrainians used the U.S. intelligence to devastate the attacking force at Hostomel, in what may turn out to be the decisive battle of the war. “The Russians had no Plan B,” explained Marek Menkiszak, a Polish intelligence analyst with the Centre for Eastern Studies in Warsaw.

Menkiszak explained the significance of the intelligence coup that revealed the decapitation plan: “The Russians trapped themselves. … It was not meant to be a full-scale war but a special operation” that would topple Zelensky’s government and install a pliant, pro-Moscow regime.

Through the buildup to war, Biden sometimes seemed to misspeak. But he had a clear-eyed view of the evolving strategic terrain. Early on, for example, Biden concluded that the best way to derail Putin’s hope for dividing NATO would be the accession of two strong new members, Finland and Sweden.

Biden wooed Finnish President Sauli Niinisto. He called him in December and then in January to talk about the Russian threat, Blinken said. Biden then invited Niinisto to visit the White House in March, and while they were sitting in the Oval Office, Biden suggested they call Swedish Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson, reaching her late at night. By May, the two were visiting the White House together, celebrating their countries’ plans to join NATO.

...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/05/26/biden-white-house-secret-planning-helped-ukraine-counter-russia/

On May 30 2022 17:42 Silvanel wrote:
That guy, despite what he claims, presents very narrow and one sided perspective. I watched some of his videos and if half of what he says was true Ukrainains should be taking Moscow by now. Recently half of his videos are dedicted to commenting what Russian TV hosts are saying...
While he sometimes has valuable informations he mixes it with his opinions, which are basically 'Murica, Fuck Yeah!

On May 30 2022 19:56 Silvanel wrote:
Yeah, You are right. I think the problem here boils down to nature of Youtube/entertainment industry. He used to make a video every day. During first stage of the war situation changed rapidly and there was a lot to talk about. Now with slow moving front and more "radio silence" on Ukr side there is a lot less to talk about. So he fils videos with that Russian news segment which I find useless. The maps are more interesting, especially the topographic one.
Also the titles of the videos are usually a clickbait.

On May 31 2022 01:33 KwarK wrote:
Once they give Ukraine a weapon they bear a degree of responsibility for what Ukraine does with that. If some embittered soldiers get the bright idea that the Russian Duma would be a fun target the US would be partially responsible, at least in Russian eyes. The caution makes sense.

On May 31 2022 02:36 Silvanel wrote:
All attacks on Russian infrastructure are legitimate. They fly sorties out of airports in Russia, lunch cruise missiles out of Russia, ship tanks and other equipments via rails or roads to attack Ukraine. Build ammunition in factories, train soldiers in bases and so on... Ukrainians have every right to strike targets in Russia.

On May 31 2022 03:10 JimmiC wrote:
I think if the food crisis starts hitting quite of few countries these somewhat arbitrary lines in the sand that have been drawn will move and even before that they will likely continue to move the longer this goes on.