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Russo-Ukrainian War Thread - Page 126

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NOTE: When providing a source, please provide a very brief summary on what it's about and what purpose it adds to the discussion. The supporting statement should clearly explain why the subject is relevant and needs to be discussed. Please follow this rule especially for tweets.

Your supporting statement should always come BEFORE you provide the source.
{CC}StealthBlue
Profile Blog Joined January 2003
United States41117 Posts
May 19 2022 13:02 GMT
#2501
Whatever that means, don't think Russia even has an idea.

Russia's response to Finland's decision to join NATO will come as a surprise, but the measures will be military, Russian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Maria Zakharova revealed.

"It will be a surprise. This is up to our defense ministry. Of course, the appropriate decision will be made, taking into account the whole range of factors, and the specifics of how Finland's membership in NATO will develop," Zakharova pointed out.

Answering what military-technical measures Russia planned to apply to Finland, the Russian diplomat indicated that "based on all these parameters, a decision will be made, but first of all, of course, it belongs to the military."


Source
"Smokey, this is not 'Nam, this is bowling. There are rules."
Deleted User 137586
Profile Joined January 2011
7859 Posts
May 19 2022 13:13 GMT
#2502
This is a bit slow, but information is slowly coming to the fore. Here's a tweet by the Estonian EU Commission rep. :

For the first time Putin has managed to break EU unity using gas and oil.

The new details from the Commission don't prohibit purchasing gas in rubles. FR, DE and IT are paying in rubles. Those who don't will be cut off from gas.

Very bad.

+ Show Spoiler +
https://twitter.com/KeitKasemets/status/1526795791163133953


It's especially unfortunate from my perspective that the EU Commissioner for energy is an Estonian, unfortunately, she's from one of the populist parties that has a cooperation agreement with Putin's party. So no surprises about her botching this badly.

Of course, this conflates that HU's Orban is blocking oil, and DE and IT are blocking gas. And they're doing it for different reasons.

Apparently, current LNG plans won't cover DE needs:

DE is building LNG terminal, IT is looking for alternatives to pipelines, but the quantities won't replace Russian gas, especially in Germany. + Show Spoiler +
https://twitter.com/KeitKasemets/status/1526810876065488897


On other news, I understand from the statements posted above that Putin is ramping down escalatory language on Finland and Sweden. Looks like it's a fait accompli.
Cry 'havoc' and let slip the dogs of war
Manit0u
Profile Blog Joined August 2004
Poland17614 Posts
Last Edited: 2022-05-19 13:16:26
May 19 2022 13:16 GMT
#2503
Well, I don't really know what Russia wants to do there... AFAIK Finland was prepared to fight them off even without NATO support but now they have US and UK backing even before their NATO membership is through.

Seeing how Russia has been faring in Ukraine so far attacking Finland even without a NATO backing it would be silly at best and if some parts of NATO were to get involved it would be borderline suicidal for Russia.
Time is precious. Waste it wisely.
Gorsameth
Profile Joined April 2010
Netherlands22063 Posts
May 19 2022 13:38 GMT
#2504
On May 19 2022 22:16 Manit0u wrote:
Well, I don't really know what Russia wants to do there... AFAIK Finland was prepared to fight them off even without NATO support but now they have US and UK backing even before their NATO membership is through.

Seeing how Russia has been faring in Ukraine so far attacking Finland even without a NATO backing it would be silly at best and if some parts of NATO were to get involved it would be borderline suicidal for Russia.
Another reminder that Finland is part of the EU's mutual defence treaty. (which is why the UK has to make a new treaty for it, cause Brexit).

Russia attacking Finland would cause the EU to directly intervene and fighting back against the EU would potentially cause NATO to join in.
I don't think military action against Finland was ever an actual realistic threat.
It ignores such insignificant forces as time, entropy, and death
Sermokala
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
United States14076 Posts
May 19 2022 14:11 GMT
#2505
If anything this war should remind our Chinese friend about 1937. An imperial power keeps gobbeling up land and making make governments to control the area before declareing war for even more of the nation.

Heck Russia's justification was a false flag attack over a river that no-one believes.
A wise man will say that he knows nothing. We're gona party like its 2752 Hail Dark Brandon
Sent.
Profile Joined June 2012
Poland9269 Posts
May 19 2022 15:31 GMT
#2506
On May 19 2022 15:55 Ardias wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 19 2022 06:08 Artesimo wrote:
Ukraine is not gonna invade russia for 2 reasons: it would hurt their international support because it can be argued that it would no longer be self defence. In addition to that, according to russian nuclear doctrine, use of nukes is permitted, when russias existence is threatened. I doubt ukraine wants to play chicken with either of those things.

In regards to russias nuclear deterrence, this interesting assessment is somewhat related https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-annexation-occupied-ukraine-putin’s-unacceptable-“-ramp”

very TLDR: russias current strategy could seek to grab as much territory as possible, integrate it into russia and then use the nuclear deterrence according to their doctrine to keep ukraine from trying to retake it.


I doubt that it will come to "nuclear" part, but if Ukraine troops cross Russian border, it will give Putin the excuse to use conscripted troops against them, and probably even conduct a partial mobilization in a regions neighbouring Ukraine (Bryansk, Kursk, Belgorod, Voronezh regions). Thus far, Ukrainian news agencies officialy deny any claims about Ukrainian artillery shelling Russian villages on the border, and even the helicopter attack on oil storage near Belgorod they refer to as conducted by "unknown" helicopters. So I doubt Ukraine will move into the Russia itself.
Though the case with Crimea is interesting in this regard, as both parties consider the peninsula as their own, and Russia do maintain conscripted troops there (which are currently tasked with supply and repair efforts). If Ukraine manages to go there, I believe there could be mobilization at least in the Crimea itself.

And as the part of the current strategy - yeah, you are probably right. I would also add that Putin will probably try to fully control Lugansk and Donetsk regions in their administrative borders, before turning to negotiations or freezing the conflict.
I guess that's part of the reason why Ukraine is desperately holding to Severodonetsk and Lysychansk, despite the threat of encirclement there. Full control of even one of the regions could be seen as big media victory/loss for Russian/Ukrainian governments respectively.
Show nested quote +
On May 19 2022 15:39 Simberto wrote:
Putin has no problem with lying, staging or making up events to justify what he wants to do.

If everything was that simple, I would already be rolling on some BTR-70 to the Dniepr after being mobilized. But that's not the case. Even Russian society has a breaking point, hence no use of conscripts in Ukraine, as well as no economic or military mobilization to keep things calm internally and not to disturb a general population. If you dont watch news on TV or Internet, you probably won't guess here that this country is in full-scale war.


That's a good point, I forgot about the possibility of partial mobilization. I thought that full mobilization in Russia is currently unlikely, and therefore crossing the border in the Belgorod area would be good for Ukraine because it should inflict serious morale damage to those Russians who still consider Putin's state a superpower entitled to do what it wants in its sphere of influence without having to worry about retaliation. A localised mobilization would be doable without causing a strong resistance in the society, so it's better for Ukraine to avoid giving Putin an excuse to do that.
You're now breathing manually
Erasme
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
Bahamas15899 Posts
Last Edited: 2022-05-19 17:34:21
May 19 2022 17:33 GMT
#2507
Isn't Russia already using conscripts ? I thought the modern russian playbook was the same as before, sending in the poor ill equipped to die.
Also as Kwark and other already pointed before, nothing will stop Putin from saying w.e he wants and having his state tv repeat it ad nauseam until it becomes the new truth.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d7lxwFEB6FI “‘Drain the swamp’? Stupid saying, means nothing, but you guys loved it so I kept saying it.”
maybenexttime
Profile Blog Joined November 2006
Poland5742 Posts
May 19 2022 17:54 GMT
#2508
They're using conscripts from the separatist regions on a mass scale, but not from Russia itself (only some).
Manit0u
Profile Blog Joined August 2004
Poland17614 Posts
May 19 2022 18:17 GMT
#2509
Some more disturbing news. Apparently the organized crime is very active around the war. So many people being displaced is a paradise for human traffickers, especially that most of them are women and children and it's easy to lure them in with the promises of free transport, free lodging or perspectives of work.
Time is precious. Waste it wisely.
Artesimo
Profile Joined February 2015
Germany567 Posts
May 19 2022 18:35 GMT
#2510
On May 20 2022 03:17 Manit0u wrote:
Some more disturbing news. Apparently the organized crime is very active around the war. So many people being displaced is a paradise for human traffickers, especially that most of them are women and children and it's easy to lure them in with the promises of free transport, free lodging or perspectives of work.


Yeah relatively early into the war our goverment put out some PSA's for refugees and at the refugee place I volunteered there were some shady people. We had to tell them to fuck off / later call the cops on them.
{CC}StealthBlue
Profile Blog Joined January 2003
United States41117 Posts
May 20 2022 02:18 GMT
#2511
Apparently former Israeli soldiers are in Ukraine training fighters. No idea if this is official policy or just "volunteers" from Israel.

"Smokey, this is not 'Nam, this is bowling. There are rules."
Manit0u
Profile Blog Joined August 2004
Poland17614 Posts
Last Edited: 2022-05-20 09:44:02
May 20 2022 09:37 GMT
#2512
On May 20 2022 11:18 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:
Apparently former Israeli soldiers are in Ukraine training fighters. No idea if this is official policy or just "volunteers" from Israel.

https://twitter.com/buch10_04/status/1527229135415922689


Israel is also scheduled to hold a massive training op involving all of their forces and reserves. This might have something to do with Iran supposedly achieving nuclear weapons.



I wonder if Ukrainians can take Vovchansk and Kupyansk anytime soon. If they do it would cut off 50 Russian BTGs from supplies.
Time is precious. Waste it wisely.
{CC}StealthBlue
Profile Blog Joined January 2003
United States41117 Posts
Last Edited: 2022-05-20 16:28:27
May 20 2022 16:05 GMT
#2513
As expected Turkish threats to stop Finland, and Sweden from joining NATO is a guise for defense contracts.



Right on cue:

The United Kingdom has completely lifted all of the restrictions on the export of defence products to Turkey that were brought in following Ankara's 2019 offensive on northeast Syria, Turkey’s chief defence industry officer Ismail Demir said on Friday.

The UK government in December announced that it has lifted a suspension of arms exports to Turkey but added that all existing and new export and trade license applications for Turkey would be assessed on a case-by-case basis against “the Strategic Export Licensing Criteria”.

A senior Turkish official said that despite the December announcement, there were defence export licences for some products that were awaiting approval by the British government, and in practice the restrictions were ongoing.


Source
"Smokey, this is not 'Nam, this is bowling. There are rules."
Ardias
Profile Joined January 2014
Russian Federation617 Posts
May 20 2022 20:13 GMT
#2514
Battle of Mariupol is over, all remnants of "Azov" and 36th Naval Infantry brigade have surrendered.
Mess with the best or die like the rest.
KwarK
Profile Blog Joined July 2006
United States43483 Posts
May 20 2022 20:36 GMT
#2515
On May 21 2022 05:13 Ardias wrote:
Battle of Mariupol is over, all remnants of "Azov" and 36th Naval Infantry brigade have surrendered.

Correction, first battle of Mariupol. There'll be another before the year is done.
ModeratorThe angels have the phone box
fakovski
Profile Joined May 2022
China50 Posts
May 21 2022 00:47 GMT
#2516
On May 21 2022 05:13 Ardias wrote:
Battle of Mariupol is over, all remnants of "Azov" and 36th Naval Infantry brigade have surrendered.

According to BBC "Fighters evacuted from Mariupolsteel to russian ocuppied town."
Deleted User 137586
Profile Joined January 2011
7859 Posts
Last Edited: 2022-05-21 10:19:41
May 21 2022 10:19 GMT
#2517
Putin's plan to split Western union using gas continues, unfortunately successfully.


Germany and Italy approved Russian gas payments after nod from Brussels

Germany and Italy told companies they could open rouble accounts to keep buying Russian gas without breaching sanctions against Moscow following discussions with the European Union, sources said.

The debate over Russia's demand that foreign buyers pay for gas in roubles has tested the resolve of European governments to take a hard line against Moscow over the war in Ukraine.

Poland, Bulgaria and Finland have refused to comply with Moscow's demand that importers pay for gas via rouble accounts with Gazprombank and their supplies have been cut.

Other member states, however, have been unwilling to steer companies towards action that could result in losing vital supplies of Russian gas that heats homes and powers factories.

Brussels has given two sets of written guidance on how to buy Russian gas without breaching sanctions, but the legal route remains foggy as EU officials also advised firms in a closed-door meeting not to open rouble accounts with Gazprombank.

Some diplomats in Brussels from EU member states said they thought the advice was intentionally vague to enable countries to open rouble accounts and keep buying Russian gas.

"One has the impression that it leaves the door open for business as usual," one diplomat said, adding that in their view it risked undermining EU unity against Russia if companies in some countries opened rouble accounts but others did not.

"They needed to create a level of creative ambiguity," a second diplomat said, referring to the Commission's advice. "The purpose of creative ambiguity is to create just enough room for all the different interpretations."

The Commission declined to comment on the discussions.

A Commission spokesman said on Thursday it was not "advisable" for companies to open rouble accounts. read more

'GREY ZONE'

Two sources told Reuters that German gas importers have been told by Berlin they can open rouble accounts to pay for Russian gas without violating sanctions, as long as the payments they make to Gazprombank are not in the Russian currency.

The sources said Germany, which is the biggest importer of Russian gas in the region, had consistently acted on the issue in close coordination with the EU.

The Italian government also spoke to the European Commission and received clarity on how to buy Russian gas legally, a senior government source told Reuters.

That happened before Italian energy company Eni (ENI.MI) said on Tuesday it had begun proceedings to open two accounts, one in euros and one in roubles, the source said.

"The decision is in line with what was communicated by the department," the source said, referring to the European Commission's energy department.

Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi said last week that it was a "grey zone" whether complying with Russia's payment scheme would breach sanctions, with no official ruling on the matter.

Draghi's office declined to comment on Friday.

In its written guidance, the EU said companies can buy Russian gas without breaching sanctions if they pay in the currency of their existing contracts - and declare that doing so fulfils their contractual obligations.

Most contracts EU firms have with Gazprom are in euros or dollars.

The guidance did not explicitly say, however, that opening rouble accounts for those payments to be converted into the Russian currency would be a breach of EU sanctions.

Katja Yafimava, senior research fellow at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, said there was no legal basis to suggest that opening a rouble account violated sanctions.

"There is nothing in the written guidance that prevents buyers from opening such accounts. While the European Commission verbal statements have created ambiguity, it is the written guidance that matters," she said.

National governments are responsible for enforcing EU sanctions, which were approved by all 27 member states.

Brussels could launch legal action against governments that fail to enforce them but member states disagree on gas payments.

Poland has demanded clearer advice from Brussels on whether companies can open rouble account.

A spokesperson for the Dutch economic affairs ministry said the country was lobbying for a clear EU stand, to "draw one line for the whole EU".

Source


And, on queue, Finland's gas was turned off this morning.


Russia stops gas flows to Finland over payments dispute

Russia's Gazprom on Saturday halted gas exports to neighbouring Finland, in the latest escalation of an energy payments dispute with Western nations.

Gazprom Export has demanded that European countries pay for Russian gas supplies in roubles because of sanctions imposed over Moscow's invasion of Ukraine, but Finland refuses to do so.

The move by Gazprom comes at the same time as Finland is applying to join the NATO military alliance, a decision spurred by Russia's invasion of Ukraine. read more

"Gas imports through Imatra entry point have been stopped," Finnish gas system operator Gasgrid Finland said in a statement on Saturday.

Imatra is the entry point for Russian gas into Finland.

Finnish state-owned gas wholesaler Gasum on Friday said Gazprom had warned that flows would be halted from 0400 GMT on Saturday morning.

Gasum and Gazprom also confirmed on Saturday the flows had stopped.

"Natural gas supplies to Finland under Gasum's supply contract have been cut off," Gasum said in a statement.

"Starting from today, during the upcoming summer season, Gasum will supply natural gas to its customers from other sources through the Balticconnector pipeline."

Balticconnector links Finland to neighbouring Estonia's gas grid.

Gazprom Export on Friday said flows would be cut because Gasum had not complied with the new Russian rules requiring settlement in roubles.

Source


On a more positive note, from Rainer Saks:

- RU only continues to attack Severodonetsk, UA is pulling back some km from the south-east, while inflicting familiar heavy casualties (1 BTG of troops, 2 BTG of equipment a day). Falling back is uncomfortable, but not yet cause for worry.
- RU reinforced the north of Kharkiv, halting UA advancements for now. This helps UA elsewhere.
- Azovstal evacuation should be completed, and a prisoner swap is planned. RU will probably delay and manipulate the process, but RU cannot afford botching the whole scheme at this point.
- RU missile attacks are petering out, probably due to a lack of stocks and diminished ability to produce more. RU still has 50-40% of its stocks, but it's holding reserves should the war drag out. (This is another reason why countries feel safe from RU attacks - there's not enough equipment, or RU would need to first pull out of UA entirely).
- US lend-lease is not yet definite. But if UA receives these capabilities, it's possible to start talking about taking back Crimea. But, currently, UA hasn't even utilized most of what it has received so far.


+ Show Spoiler +

Original:
21 mai kokkuvõte - vene üksused keskendusid täielikult Severodonetski pealtungile ning ühel suunal saavutasid ka mõningast edu.
- Harkivi juures ei ole suutnud Ukraina üksused rohkem edeneda. Aga vene pool on sunnitud siia tooma lisavägesid ja väga korralikke üksuseid, mis kindlasti kergendab ukrainlaste olukorda teistel suundadel
- Izjumist Slovjanski suunas ei ole vene pool suutnud pealetungi käima saada.
- Severodonetski juures suutsid venelased edasi tungida linnast lõuna poolt - Popasna asulast lähtuvalt. Raske on aru saada, kui kaugele edeneti, kuid Ukraina pool tundub võtma seda asja rahulikult. Siiski on olukord rinde sellel lõigul muutunud ukrainlastele ebamugavamaks. Edasine sõltub sellest, kumb pool suudab reserve paremini kasutada. Kui ukrainlased suudavad vene poole kaotuseid senisel tasemel hoida, ei ole mõne kilomeetri kaupa taganemisel traagilist tähendust.
- Mujal Donbassi rinde ulatuses olukord endine - suurtükituli ja luurelahingu tüüpi rünnaku katsed
Azovstalist peaks nüüd olema kõik ukrainlased lahkunud. Kindlasti ei toimu väga kiiret vangide vahetust. Ja kindlasti näeme vene poole katseid protsessiga manipuleerida. Ei hakka ennustama, kuidas ja millal see kõik lõpeb. Arvan ainult, et venemaa ei lubada endale ka seda, et ta kogu protsessi nurja ajab.
- Lõunarindel rajab vene pool aktiivselt kaitserajatisi.
Vene pool üritab veel raketilöökidega häirida Ukraina tagalat ja tekitada mulje, et rünnatakse Ukrainat kogu ulatuses. Siiski on neid raketilööke palju hõredamalt, kui varasemalt. Põhjus ilmsesti arsenalide tühjenemises ja tootmisvõimsuste languses. Kuigi igasugu rakette venemaal on veel üsna palju alles jäänud (5äägitakse ca 50---40% algsest kogusest), siis kokku hoidma peab eelkõige sellepärast, et venemaa pool peab arvestama sõja venima jäämisega. Siin on ka üks põhjus, miks on keeruline minna veel mõnele sõjaliselt võimekale riigile kallale - ründerelvi lihtsalt ei jätkuks. Või tuleks enne Ukrainast kõik väed välja tuua.
Valgevene ja Transnistrija suunalt ei ole oht suurenenud. Dessandist Odessa piirkonda praegu rääkida ei ole põhjust.
Ajakirjanduses ilmunud info USA uute relvatarnete kohta ei ole siiski veel kindlad otsused. Aga kui selline võime ukrainlastele antakse, oleks võimalik juba rääkida ka Krimmi vabastamisest. Esialgu ei ole Ukraina veel suures osas kasutusele võtnud seda aresnali, mida juba Ukrainasse saadetud on.

Cry 'havoc' and let slip the dogs of war
maybenexttime
Profile Blog Joined November 2006
Poland5742 Posts
May 21 2022 11:02 GMT
#2518
Can someone explain what's the difference between EU companies paying in EUR/USD (with the prices set in EUR/USD) and those currencies being converted to RUB on their Gazprombank accounts vs. those companies paying in EUR/USD and Russia doing the conversion elsewhere?
Gahlo
Profile Joined February 2010
United States35165 Posts
May 21 2022 11:32 GMT
#2519
Nobody wants RUB because of this war. So if a group that's trading with Russia wants EUR/USD it can be difficult to get a good conversion rate. By EU companies paying in EUR or USD, Russia can avoid the hassle of trying to get somebody to accept their currency as payment, and then hand off that money in a separate transaction.
farvacola
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
United States18845 Posts
Last Edited: 2022-05-21 11:48:08
May 21 2022 11:47 GMT
#2520
Edit: never mind, misunderstood the question
"when the Dead Kennedys found out they had skinhead fans, they literally wrote a song titled 'Nazi Punks Fuck Off'"
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