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2020 US Election - Page 9

Forum Index > General Forum
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Deleted User 173346
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
16169 Posts
November 03 2020 16:16 GMT
#161
--- Nuked ---
JimmiC
Profile Blog Joined May 2011
Canada22817 Posts
November 03 2020 16:17 GMT
#162
--- Nuked ---
GreenHorizons
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States24387 Posts
November 03 2020 16:30 GMT
#163
On November 04 2020 01:01 Zambrah wrote:
I wonder if Al Gore going in on climate change might have had an impact in that era, it always seemed like something noone took seriously back then so it's surprising to see.


More the The Animal Enterprise Protection Act of 1992 and the equating of targeting property to intentionally murdering people.
"People like to look at history and think 'If that was me back then, I would have...' We're living through history, and the truth is, whatever you are doing now is probably what you would have done then" "Scratch a Liberal..."
WombaT
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
Northern Ireland27464 Posts
November 03 2020 16:38 GMT
#164
On November 03 2020 23:26 r00ty wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 03 2020 21:27 Simberto wrote:
On November 03 2020 20:35 WombaT wrote:
On November 03 2020 17:22 r00ty wrote:
Radical extremist left/communist: People throwing those words around lightly are just making an ass out of themselves, sorry. I experienced the last waves of the RAF in Germany and the ETA in Spain/France as a kid and i can't see that in the US. I checked the list of terrorist attacks in the US over the last 50 years and there's more attacks on abortion clinics than anything resembling "leftwing terror". I'd rather be afraid of the next Timothy McVeigh and the guys whose wet dream it is, to make "The Turner Diaries" a reality and radical islam.

Please take care and stay safe everybody.

Really had to take a double-take on that, I'd initially been rather surprised that we had an active TL poster who was old enough to remember the raids of the Royal Air Force and was going to pester you with questions about the good old days :p


+ Show Spoiler +
Stuff on international forums is often similarly confusing for Germans, because to us RAF pretty much always means this:
[image loading]

Rote Armee Fraktion, and not Royal Air Force.


Yeah no worries, WombaT was just joking i guess. A witness of the other RAF raids would be my dad.

It's not like "our RAF" is completely unknown outside of Germany or is it? Sorry, if so. Anyhow, is there's anything comparable to those groups in the US? Like the columbian ELN, marxist kurds or parts of the IRA back in the day?

If Bernie and AOC are your "radical left", be glad and carry on. If Biden is your "radical left", you need to educate yourself.

Show nested quote +
On November 03 2020 20:14 Oukka wrote:
+ Show Spoiler +
Last time I stayed up with a few friends to watch the election coverage, around 4am here when Trump victory was looking pretty much confirmed we finally gave up. Here's hoping to a very different election night this time.

Everything I've seen points towards a Biden win an even Dems taking Senate as well, which appears pretty much necessary if anyone in US wants their government to actually function. Saw someone suggesting that Senate republicans, specifically McConnell, was already swearing to stop anything from going through. Was that actually said? Not that it surprises me, but don't want to misrepresent him/them unnecessarily.
Coming from Finland where I cannot remember a government with less than 3 parties in it, this kind of ultra-partisanship is just incredible and self-destructing.


Amen.

Aye, that said it would be kind of awesome to have some 100 year old dude browsing TL and chuckling at Unimpressed Flash.

As to your question, for whatever reason I don’t think such groups in Germany, or indeed their Italian equivalents back in the day are at all well-known. I’m pass-familiar, especially the latter via my interests in the culture of Italian football and ultra culture. So the Red Brigades and that kind of thing.

There’s tons of interesting history all over the place that just isn’t well-known at all, even relatively contemporary events.

In this country at least FARC were hard to avoid knowing about given links to the IRA, and ETA there are romantic nationalist parallels to be drawn to the Irish example.
'You'll always be the cuddly marsupial of my heart, despite the inherent flaws of your ancestry' - Squat
TL+ Member
Zambrah
Profile Blog Joined June 2011
United States7393 Posts
November 03 2020 16:38 GMT
#165
It feels dumb to say but that all makes sense given what I remember of cartoons from being a child in that era, lol.
Incremental change is the Democrat version of Trickle Down economics.
BisuDagger
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
Bisutopia19393 Posts
November 03 2020 16:54 GMT
#166
On November 04 2020 01:04 KwarK wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 04 2020 00:18 BisuDagger wrote:
On November 03 2020 23:35 TheTenthDoc wrote:
On November 03 2020 22:31 Biff The Understudy wrote:
On November 03 2020 22:10 GoTuNk! wrote:
I think Florida will tell fairly early the story of this election.
If Trump loses it, he is toast obv.
If he wins it narrowly, election is on but most likely for biden still, and we have to wait more and this might drag for weeks.
If he seems to be winning by a large margin, then Trump chances become suddenly very good.

Anecdotal evidence so far points to large lines of people waiting to vote since polls opening early.

That sounds quite reasonable, though demographics are so different in Florida and, say, Pennsylvania that you can imagine Trump winning very comfortably the former and losing the latter.


Fortunately for Biden, winning any of Florida/NC/Pennsylvania should get him to 270+ EVs bar some really wacky polling (like, Dewey beats Truman level polling errors across the Midwest). I think Arizona is a little trickier but also doable.

Would not be surprised to see both Florida and NC down to the wire though, even if both of them have the bulk of their results in tonight.

It makes me happy to live in Florida where we have cities that are willing to vote red and blue ballots on a city, state, and federal level. It feels like we care more about the quality of the candidate and the current event issues more then keeping a party line.

That doesn’t follow.

What you’ve done is
1. Assume better candidates are evenly distributed between parties
2. Observe Florida changes hands
3. Conclude that Florida votes for the best candidate because the best candidate changes.

Assumption 1 is invalid but even if it wasn’t the evidence would just as easily support the conclusion that Florida always supports the worst candidate. It’s just bad logic.


All I said is we are willing to vote for different candidates regardless of party. Not sure why there is so much to read into it. Jacksonville went blue for our most recent ex-mayor. He promised a lot, but in fact hurt the city a lot. Our current mayor has done a great job. When he's done, I'll be looking at who I believe will do the job well, not for the next republican running for mayor. I'm thankful that the city was willing to chose a new mayor instead of repeatedly picking the same guy.

If you only look at Presidents elected from Florida, then you are ignoring that I mentioned city and state candidates and issues too. I would hate to be a dark blue or red state that never has a change in hand for governors and mayor or always votes one side of the issue. If I was on the losing side in those states, I would feel like my vote is pointless. I like having highly contested issue where we challenge each other to bring the best arguments and convince each other of the issues.

On November 04 2020 01:07 farvacola wrote:
Mixed red and blue ballots are also not unique to Florida in any way, so I'm curious what the basis for picking that state as an exemplar is.

I stated in my post I am from Florida and am happy to live in a state with mixed ballots. I brought it up because the post I quoted mentioned Florida so I thought I'd share my view as a resident.

ModeratorFormer Afreeca Starleague Caster: http://afreeca.tv/ASL2ENG2
GreenHorizons
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States24387 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-11-03 16:56:53
November 03 2020 16:55 GMT
#167
On November 04 2020 01:38 Zambrah wrote:
It feels dumb to say but that all makes sense given what I remember of cartoons from being a child in that era, lol.

Probably just too young to know about the Coalition for the Liberation of Itinerant Tree-dwellers and the Liberate Apes Before Imprisoning Apes movement
"People like to look at history and think 'If that was me back then, I would have...' We're living through history, and the truth is, whatever you are doing now is probably what you would have done then" "Scratch a Liberal..."
Zambrah
Profile Blog Joined June 2011
United States7393 Posts
November 03 2020 16:59 GMT
#168
On November 04 2020 01:55 GreenHorizons wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 04 2020 01:38 Zambrah wrote:
It feels dumb to say but that all makes sense given what I remember of cartoons from being a child in that era, lol.

Probably just too young to know about the Coalition for the Liberation of Itinerant Tree-dwellers and the Liberate Apes Before Imprisoning Apes movement


I think the only Jay and Silent Kevin Smith movie I've ever seen was Dogma tbh, lol.

Unless you count the music video for Afroman's Because I Got High that is
Incremental change is the Democrat version of Trickle Down economics.
Ryzel
Profile Joined December 2012
United States568 Posts
November 03 2020 17:02 GMT
#169
On November 04 2020 01:55 GreenHorizons wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 04 2020 01:38 Zambrah wrote:
It feels dumb to say but that all makes sense given what I remember of cartoons from being a child in that era, lol.

Probably just too young to know about the Coalition for the Liberation of Itinerant Tree-dwellers and the Liberate Apes Before Imprisoning Apes movement


Now those are some movements I can get behind.
Hakuna Matata B*tches
Deleted User 173346
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
16169 Posts
November 03 2020 17:05 GMT
#170
--- Nuked ---
GreenHorizons
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States24387 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-11-03 17:10:46
November 03 2020 17:09 GMT
#171
"People like to look at history and think 'If that was me back then, I would have...' We're living through history, and the truth is, whatever you are doing now is probably what you would have done then" "Scratch a Liberal..."
Simberto
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Germany12026 Posts
November 03 2020 17:11 GMT
#172
On November 04 2020 01:30 GreenHorizons wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 04 2020 01:01 Zambrah wrote:
I wonder if Al Gore going in on climate change might have had an impact in that era, it always seemed like something noone took seriously back then so it's surprising to see.


More the The Animal Enterprise Protection Act of 1992 and the equating of targeting property to intentionally murdering people.


I think it is important to repeat this. While there might be some leftwing terrorist acts (still less than rightwing terrorist acts or religious terrorist acts), leftwing terrorism tends to target things, while rightwing and religious terrorism tends to target humans. Those graphs seen above become even more lopsided if you look at people killed by x terrorism type instead.
GoTuNk!
Profile Blog Joined September 2006
Chile4591 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-11-03 17:19:54
November 03 2020 17:19 GMT
#173
https://joeisdone.github.io/florida/

D-R gap (raw): -92692

Am I missing something or this is very good for Rs? It was like +20k at begining of the day
IyMoon
Profile Joined April 2016
United States1249 Posts
November 03 2020 17:20 GMT
#174
On November 04 2020 02:19 GoTuNk! wrote:
https://joeisdone.github.io/florida/

D-R gap (raw): -92692

Am I missing something or this is very good for Rs? It was like +20k at begining of the day


I am not sure I trust the code from someone who makes a joeisdone site.

But also from what I read Miami doesn't do early data releases
Something witty
Zambrah
Profile Blog Joined June 2011
United States7393 Posts
November 03 2020 17:22 GMT
#175
God, I can't wait to see if Nancy Pelosi gets dethroned by Shahid Buttar.

It's probably the part of the election I care most about right now, tbh.
Incremental change is the Democrat version of Trickle Down economics.
GoTuNk!
Profile Blog Joined September 2006
Chile4591 Posts
November 03 2020 17:22 GMT
#176
On November 04 2020 02:20 IyMoon wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 04 2020 02:19 GoTuNk! wrote:
https://joeisdone.github.io/florida/

D-R gap (raw): -92692

Am I missing something or this is very good for Rs? It was like +20k at begining of the day


I am not sure I trust the code from someone who makes a joeisdone site.

But also from what I read Miami doesn't do early data releases


I've seen this posted multiple sources, and here; it's by party affiliation, not actual votes.

Does it mean anything if this accurate?
KwarK
Profile Blog Joined July 2006
United States44373 Posts
November 03 2020 17:25 GMT
#177
On November 04 2020 02:19 GoTuNk! wrote:
https://joeisdone.github.io/florida/

D-R gap (raw): -92692

Am I missing something or this is very good for Rs? It was like +20k at begining of the day

The expectation is that in person voting would favour Trump causing him to declare victory before mail in votes, which will favour Biden, are counted. He’s been laying the ground work for disputing the result based on this for months. That’s what the constant tweets about mail in fraud are about. He knew he would lose those, the plan was always to invalidate them.
ModeratorThe angels have the phone box
JimmiC
Profile Blog Joined May 2011
Canada22817 Posts
November 03 2020 17:26 GMT
#178
--- Nuked ---
Nevuk
Profile Blog Joined March 2009
United States16280 Posts
November 03 2020 17:26 GMT
#179
Doesn't mean too much unless it's a much larger gap. The reason is that the election will turn on independents, who have been favoring Biden by 6-7 points in most polls. So basically unless the GOP is up by 7%+ in party ID vs D I wouldn't read into it.

There's really nothing to be learned about vote gaps this early: Democrats also tend to vote later in the day. They tend to be younger, meaning two things : 1. They get up later than the elderly. 2. They tend to not be retired and have to vote after work.
GoTuNk!
Profile Blog Joined September 2006
Chile4591 Posts
November 03 2020 17:31 GMT
#180
On November 04 2020 02:25 KwarK wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 04 2020 02:19 GoTuNk! wrote:
https://joeisdone.github.io/florida/

D-R gap (raw): -92692

Am I missing something or this is very good for Rs? It was like +20k at begining of the day

The expectation is that in person voting would favour Trump causing him to declare victory before mail in votes, which will favour Biden, are counted. He’s been laying the ground work for disputing the result based on this for months. That’s what the constant tweets about mail in fraud are about. He knew he would lose those, the plan was always to invalidate them.


I'm asking for actual results predictions, not borderline conspiracy theories

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/11/03/trump-says-he-wont-declare-victory-prematurely-433915

‘There’s no reason to play games’: Trump signals he won’t try to declare victory prematurely
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