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On November 04 2020 02:26 Nevuk wrote:
Doesn't mean too much unless it's a much larger gap. The reason is that the election will turn on independents, who have been favoring Biden by 6-7 points in most polls. So basically unless the GOP is up by 7%+ in party ID vs D I wouldn't read into it.
There's really nothing to be learned about vote gaps this early: Democrats also tend to vote later in the day. They tend to be younger, meaning two things : 1. They get up later than the elderly. 2. They tend to not be retired and have to vote after work.
Thanks that's the kind of answer I was looking for.
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On November 04 2020 02:26 JimmiC wrote:Show nested quote +On November 04 2020 02:22 Zambrah wrote:
God, I can't wait to see if Nancy Pelosi gets dethroned by Shahid Buttar.
It's probably the part of the election I care most about right now, tbh. MY upset that would make me the most happy would be if lord Turtle loses his seat!
That would be nice, McGrath is not looking like a strong contender atm though, sadly we'll likely have to start plotting how we're going to minimize the obstructionist bullshit McConnell is going to opt into for the next decade (if he lives that long, I guess)
Well, we can both dream big in the meantime. 
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United States43977 Posts
On November 04 2020 02:31 GoTuNk! wrote:Show nested quote +On November 04 2020 02:25 KwarK wrote:On November 04 2020 02:19 GoTuNk! wrote:https://joeisdone.github.io/florida/D-R gap (raw): -92692 Am I missing something or this is very good for Rs? It was like +20k at begining of the day The expectation is that in person voting would favour Trump causing him to declare victory before mail in votes, which will favour Biden, are counted. He’s been laying the ground work for disputing the result based on this for months. That’s what the constant tweets about mail in fraud are about. He knew he would lose those, the plan was always to invalidate them. I'm asking for actual results predictions, not borderline conspiracy theories https://www.politico.com/news/2020/11/03/trump-says-he-wont-declare-victory-prematurely-433915‘There’s no reason to play games’: Trump signals he won’t try to declare victory prematurely
It’s not a theory. In person voters are not representative of total voters in this election. Projecting based on in person voters is meaningless because they are not representative of the total voting population. This is garbage in, garbage out. It’s also not a conspiracy theory that Trump has been calling mail in votes fraudulent, it’s his Twitter.
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Florida is a must win for Trump but not for Biden, also. It would be nice for Biden to win so that the election can be called tonight, but outside of that it's not nearly as big a deal as it was in previous years.
It is the tipping point state the 2nd highest % of the time for 538, but that's a pretty low percent : 14.3% (roughly 1/7), vs PA which is 36.3%. To give an idea, if Biden takes NC but loses GA and FL, he's even more favored than he currently is based on polls.
If the election is close we'll be waiting at least a few days for results due to PA being slow at counting mail in ballots.
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your Country52798 Posts
Voted a couple hours ago. Most people in my area usually vote early, so the polling place was pretty much empty. I ended up sprinkling a couple of republican votes at the local level after some research.
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On November 04 2020 02:32 GoTuNk! wrote:Show nested quote +On November 04 2020 02:26 Nevuk wrote:
Doesn't mean too much unless it's a much larger gap. The reason is that the election will turn on independents, who have been favoring Biden by 6-7 points in most polls. So basically unless the GOP is up by 7%+ in party ID vs D I wouldn't read into it.
There's really nothing to be learned about vote gaps this early: Democrats also tend to vote later in the day. They tend to be younger, meaning two things : 1. They get up later than the elderly. 2. They tend to not be retired and have to vote after work. Thanks that's the kind of answer I was looking for.
I'd also note that there's no way to verify the numbers posted by that website. The Github code for it is literally just reading off some JSON committed by the author. It could all be foobar.
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United States43977 Posts
My only cross party line votes were to recall judges that the impartial state judicial review committee recommended for recall due to incompetence, intemperance, or misconduct. I researched the other candidates but the Republican Party has become so loathsome that I couldn’t find a single good person to vote for.
As a symbolic fuck you to wasted votes in constituency FPTP in safe states I also voted for the socialist in the presidential election. In a swing state I’d have voted Biden but if my vote doesn’t matter then I’ll waste it tactically.
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It's really challenging to come to a clear conclusion on results based off of party registration, especially this early. There's a lot of people who don't bother to change registration and end up voting the other party consistently, like ancestral Dems in Florida. There's probably going to be a decent number of aisle crossing from both parties too. I'd also consider that NPAs are a big X-factor that could swing the results. Most polling I've seen suggests Biden has a 5-15% advantage with independents this time, while Trump won that demographic by a similar margin last time I think. For perennially close swing states like Florida that boils down to margins in the tens of thousands, they're going to be critical.
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On November 04 2020 01:17 JimmiC wrote:Show nested quote +On November 04 2020 01:01 Zambrah wrote:
I wonder if Al Gore going in on climate change might have had an impact in that era, it always seemed like something noone took seriously back then so it's surprising to see. It has come in waves. But back then it was a little bit of climate change, but most was about treatment of animals, extinction, and habitat issues. There was like assaults' on animal testing for makeup and shit, or on construction sites that were going to damage a forest, lake or wetlands, not much attacks on oil rigs. It is strange how things change, when I was young it was all about saving the rainforest and plastic grocery bags were seen as helping. Now single use plastic is seen as the devil by most people somewhat invested in environmentalism (those hard core into it think there is a place for single use plastics but it is hard to communicate the whys in certain situations so often it is easier to message "all bad" then try to explain. As sometimes that explanation creates excuses. Also, on the grand scheme of things straws are so minor the amount of energy they take to deal with is not worth the gain compared to other bigger ticket items)
To be honest, I still think that the destruction of habitats and ecosystems and the deforestation are significantly bigger problems that climate change. And I am not one to minimize climate change impact, but the fact that we are in a bigger extinction event than the one that wiped out the dinosaurs and that it really looks like we are just getting started is absolutely chilling.
I think one of the problem with the climate change debate is that we concentrate so much on it that we forget to mention that insects have been devastated, that the oceans are getting completely emptied, and so on and so forth. I have witnessed it with my own eyes in many occasions; that thought : "weren't there butterflies / fishes / birds when I came here as a kid" is one of the saddest and scariest for our long term future I have had.
Now of course, both problems are interlinked, but maybe sone people who don't like scientists and specialists to tell them what is going on would actually relate to the fact no bird ever fly above their farm anymore.
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On November 04 2020 02:55 plasmidghost wrote:
I'm not putting a lot of weight into these early numbers. There's way too many variables this year and if trends from previous elections hold true, more Dems will come out to vote later in the day but this year is unprecedented
I'd generally just not worry about numbers right now. Wait until voting is closed and people actually start counting ballots. Any numbers you get right now are going to be worthless in a few hours.
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Going to be at work until 8:30 pm tonight so by the time I get home, shower, and get a meal ready, I'll be able to agonize over the election. Voted over the weekend (NY) and at least my congressional district has a close race where my vote will count.
Really hoping we get a relatively clear indication of a Biden win tonight so we don't have to worry about what happens in Pennsylvania.
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Are results going to start showing today? Or will we have to wait for the week to roll in?
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On November 04 2020 03:25 Emnjay808 wrote:
Are results going to start showing today? Or will we have to wait for the week to roll in?
We should have a good idea of who wins based on the Sun Belt. Florida, Arizona, NC, Georgia and Texas should report the vast majority of their ballots by around 9-10 PM EST, possibly earlier or later. They start counting early votes before ED. If any of those states look poised to go to Biden, say, they're 2-3 points for him, then he's got like a 98% chance to win. If on the other hand, Trump wins those five, then we have to wait on the Rust Belt and Midwest trifecta of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin to report results. They tabulate their early ballots today, so it will be an agonizing few days for the final count there, probably around Thursday or Friday. But if Biden loses the Sun Belt, I'd be very concerned that he'll lose Pennsylvania and his path to victory.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-results-timing/
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On November 04 2020 03:25 Emnjay808 wrote:
Are results going to start showing today? Or will we have to wait for the week to roll in?
Estimated results yes, official results no.
It was really fun to follow the live-updated map in 2016. Everyone was so confident in Clinton's victory until Pennsylvania turned red and it became clear it was going to be a close race.
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United States10397 Posts
On November 04 2020 02:43 The_Templar wrote:
Voted a couple hours ago. Most people in my area usually vote early, so the polling place was pretty much empty. I ended up sprinkling a couple of republican votes at the local level after some research.
As a Californian, my state is so damn blue that its suffocating. Voted red down ballot but voted blue for everything at the federal level.
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On November 04 2020 02:36 KwarK wrote:Show nested quote +On November 04 2020 02:31 GoTuNk! wrote:On November 04 2020 02:25 KwarK wrote:On November 04 2020 02:19 GoTuNk! wrote:https://joeisdone.github.io/florida/D-R gap (raw): -92692 Am I missing something or this is very good for Rs? It was like +20k at begining of the day The expectation is that in person voting would favour Trump causing him to declare victory before mail in votes, which will favour Biden, are counted. He’s been laying the ground work for disputing the result based on this for months. That’s what the constant tweets about mail in fraud are about. He knew he would lose those, the plan was always to invalidate them. I'm asking for actual results predictions, not borderline conspiracy theories https://www.politico.com/news/2020/11/03/trump-says-he-wont-declare-victory-prematurely-433915‘There’s no reason to play games’: Trump signals he won’t try to declare victory prematurely It’s not a theory. In person voters are not representative of total voters in this election. Projecting based on in person voters is meaningless because they are not representative of the total voting population. This is garbage in, garbage out. It’s also not a conspiracy theory that Trump has been calling mail in votes fraudulent, it’s his Twitter.
The "conspiracy theory" is that somehow Trump will say he won if he loses and get away with it or something.
Mail in ballots have been disputed in courts since always, so they COULD be a factor if the election is really really close. If Biden is up 10-14 pts as the polls suggests, it's a non issue.
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EPT
