1. Why is there a separate thread for the election?
Opening a separate thread just for the election allows everyone to have a chance to post in the thread without worrying about their content getting lost in the chaotic sea that is the USPMT.
Additionally, this allows the moderators to comb through all the pages and moderate efficiently without having to look through any past pages. It's a win/win for everyone!
2. What will happen to the USPMT?
The USPMT lock isn't permanent. The thread will be reopened at a later date this week. For now, please use this thread only to discuss US political matters.
3. Are the rules the same?
We are going to treat this thread like a StarCraft Live Report thread. There will be lots of posts and conversations going on so moderation will be a little more lax to accommodate for that. The thread will feel like spam from time to time, but we will do our best to make sure that it doesn't get out of control.
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Please discuss the results of the election in a civil manner. While we encourage a fierce environment full of passionate debating, we do NOT encourage a battleground. This is not a war, so please don't treat it like one.
4. What happens after the election is over?
The election thread will remain open for an undetermined period of time. Afterwards, we will lock the thread and reopen USPMT.
Here's some links that I will be using while viewing the election: one from 2016 to determine the direction a county moved (very important to see how a state might flip especially the swing states) and the NYT election coverage page where the states will be listed:
So how I'll be analyzing the election: Let's take Seminole county in Florida as an example, a county that was 48.1-46.6 in favor of Trump. You compare the vote as they come in tomorrow night with Seminole. If Biden is winning, it means more likely that Biden has a chance to win the state. If the results are holding the same as 2016, Trump is more likely. I find this method of seeing who's going to win far better than any other way of predicting who wins throughout the night.
Also, with 24 hours before the first polls close, here's my final prediction before I see exit polls from tomorrow:
Moved Florida and NC to Biden, I think he's got good chances in both those states. Texas, Georgia, Ohio, Iowa will still be in the Trump category. Most confident about Iowa and Texas, less so about Ohio and Georgia. See y'all here tomorrow night!
EDIT: Here was my predictions from 2016. Only got Virginia, NH, and Nevada wrong. + Show Spoiler +
On November 03 2020 10:09 FlaShFTW wrote: Here's some links that I will be using while viewing the election: one from 2016 to determine the direction a county moved (very important to see how a state might flip especially the swing states) and the NYT election coverage page where the states will be listed:
So how I'll be analyzing the election: Let's take Seminole county in Florida as an example, a county that was 48.1-46.6 in favor of Trump. You compare the vote as they come in tomorrow night with Seminole. If Biden is winning, it means more likely that Biden has a chance to win the state. If the results are holding the same as 2016, Trump is more likely. I find this method of seeing who's going to win far better than any other way of predicting who wins throughout the night.
Also, with 24 hours before the first polls close, here's my final prediction before I see exit polls from tomorrow:
Moved Florida and NC to Biden, I think he's got good chances in both those states. Texas, Georgia, Ohio, Iowa will still be in the Trump category. Most confident about Iowa and Texas, less so about Ohio and Georgia. See y'all here tomorrow night!
If biden wins just one of NC or FL I think we can go to bed at that point and call it a night
On November 03 2020 10:09 FlaShFTW wrote: Here's some links that I will be using while viewing the election: one from 2016 to determine the direction a county moved (very important to see how a state might flip especially the swing states) and the NYT election coverage page where the states will be listed:
So how I'll be analyzing the election: Let's take Seminole county in Florida as an example, a county that was 48.1-46.6 in favor of Trump. You compare the vote as they come in tomorrow night with Seminole. If Biden is winning, it means more likely that Biden has a chance to win the state. If the results are holding the same as 2016, Trump is more likely. I find this method of seeing who's going to win far better than any other way of predicting who wins throughout the night.
Also, with 24 hours before the first polls close, here's my final prediction before I see exit polls from tomorrow:
Moved Florida and NC to Biden, I think he's got good chances in both those states. Texas, Georgia, Ohio, Iowa will still be in the Trump category. Most confident about Iowa and Texas, less so about Ohio and Georgia. See y'all here tomorrow night!
If biden wins just one of NC or FL I think we can go to bed at that point and call it a night
Oh for sure i agree. But I'm a total nut for elections and polling, so I'll still be staying up.
On November 03 2020 10:13 Starlightsun wrote: Is there liquibet for this?
270 points for this please.
Also it's so sad to see how divided America has become. The fact that businesses now have to be boarded up in anticipation of the potential unrest after the election is really depressing.
On November 03 2020 10:11 Gorgonoth wrote: I don't know why but I feel a Trump win in my bones.
Same. Kinda wish I'd have put a bit of money on it, tbh.
I stand to make a few bucks. Anyone who thinks a Trump win isn't possible with his (admittedly) garbage polling performances did not closely watch the Democratic midterm polls. People forget there was a time when the thread had not only coronated Sanders but started going into debate prep.
I called a trump win in 2016. I'm not confident in picking either. But I'll go with a slim Biden win. He gets the popular vote along with FL and PA giving him the edge.
EPT
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