EPT2020 US Election - Page 3
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CorsairHero
Canada9491 Posts
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Starlightsun
United States1405 Posts
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Deleted User 173346
16169 Posts
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GreenHorizons
United States24191 Posts
On November 03 2020 11:28 Starlightsun wrote: As for Trump not fueling military conflicts, it should be remembered that he went behind the back of congress to sell weapons to Saudi Arabia to be used for their atrocities in Yemen. He also tried his damnedest to start war with Iran who was simply too weak to fight back. He does seem averse to sacrificing American servicemen, but what countries have been liberated from war because him? Saudi Arabia is a wash imo but the Iran thing was definitely a matter of (advisable) restraint from Iran rather than Trump. That easily could have gone much, much worse. | ||
FlaShFTW
United States10529 Posts
On November 03 2020 11:27 CorsairHero wrote: With all the focus on Biden/Trump make sure the more interesting stuff is whats happening with the Senate like Maine and Georgia. 538 has Biden winning at 90% and a democratic Senate at 74%. McConnell is probably going to win again but losing majority control would be huge. I can't stand another term of turtle man being Senate Majority leader. | ||
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WombaT
Northern Ireland27234 Posts
On November 03 2020 10:53 ggrrg wrote: I wholeheartedly agree about "the good of the country", but it feels rather hard to claim the same about the world, since this probably depends on where one lives. Foreign policies that are beneficial for some countries may be detrimental for others and vice versa. For example, it is looking like Trump - despite all his other flaws - will go down in history as one of the few US presidents to not fuel any large scale military conflicts around the globe. I am not even sure who would be the last comparably non-militaristic president. Ford maybe? I’m not sure I can throw that in the win column for Trump. I mean it is true yes, but he hasn’t really dealt well with what he’s inherited, nor had a scenario occur where war or not was kind of on the table. Not to mention his general bad work in multilateral cooperation which I think has long-term destabilising effects. Be it with NATO, be it with his disdain for the European Union, be it just leaving the Kurds to their fate etc. I view the lack of a new field of battle for the US’s well-funded defence forces as a happy accident, one I’m quite happy to have had happened. I don’t view non-intervention as anything that’s hard coded into this administration’s ideology, if the political winds change or some atrocity occurs and the pressure is on, Trump’s as willing if not more so than Biden to send the troops in imo. Unlike previous administrations, notably the Bush/Cheney one there isn’t a particular desire to do such a thing as a matter of pursued policy, but given Trump’s tendency to just bend with his base all it takes is that desire to return, and it’s just happened to be absent after the fatigue and human cost of Afghanistan and Iraq came to the fore. | ||
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CorsairHero
Canada9491 Posts
On November 03 2020 10:39 IyMoon wrote: Does it matter? But I also feel Trump is going to win. Hes going to take the sunbelt and win PA. Happy to be wrong Biden is going to win AZ imo. Kelly beating McSilly for the McCains seat helps Biden. Thats enough to get him to 270. | ||
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LegalLord
United States13779 Posts
All in all, it's been a remarkable presidency so far. Trump has managed to gut the productive core of the government in ways never before thought possible, and run the most blunder-filled foreign policy anyone could possibly imagine. It's been a wild ride. I guess that, in voting third party, I basically have to accept either outcome as what it is. But I'd be very surprised indeed if Trump manages to pull this one off. Expecting a night of big wins for Biden, followed by a glorious last hurrah over the next two months for Trump. | ||
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Deleted User 173346
16169 Posts
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ggrrg
Bulgaria2716 Posts
On November 03 2020 10:54 ZerOCoolSC2 wrote: Obama. Clinton. Ford. Those three either inherited a war or ended one. I absolutely disagree about Obama. Obama was leaps better than Trump in every aspect but he certainly was not less militaristic than Trump. Of course compared to Bush, Obama was an extreme improvement, but his administration (while not being the initial instigator) did significantly kindle the conflicts in Libya and Syria. The worst military offense Trump has committed that I can think of is the increase in drone strikes in Pakistan - certainly nothing to be proud about, but not comparable to the mess that has been created in the two aforementioned countries. Clinton may have a claim of being comparable to Trump in this aspect. At the very least, the US did not contribute towards the massive destruction of a country or the suffering of millions of war victims. I guess practically Clinton was about as non-militaristic as Trump, but technically he did start a military intervention in Serbia. | ||
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meegrean
Thailand7699 Posts
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pajoondies
United States316 Posts
Biden will pull it off, probably by a comfortable margin, possibly by a landslide. | ||
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PhoenixVoid
Canada32754 Posts
But there's that irritating 20% chance in the back of my brain swirling with maybes. Maybe there's an undetected surge in Trump support. Maybe polls made an enormous systemic error despite their corrections. Maybe Trump's record on the economy or various issues is potent enough to convince late deciders in close swing states. Maybe Democrats erred in relying so heavily on mail-in ballots, which applies more risk of non-returns or arriving late in swing states. Maybe there's enough election shenanigans and turmoil that favours Trump. Anyways, that's the end of my meandering. This is the projected victory for Biden I'll stand by: + Show Spoiler + ![[image loading]](https://www.270towin.com/maps/Y2Alr.png) But a Trump victory would be something like this: + Show Spoiler + In the event of a better than expected day for Democrats: + Show Spoiler + | ||
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Belisarius
Australia6233 Posts
We're all watching. Don't screw it up again. | ||
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Nevuk
United States16280 Posts
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-biden-election-map/?cid=abcnews I think Biden is going to take Texas, short of absolute nonsense from the courts to throw out ballots (very unlikely). How that map looks + Show Spoiler + Basically a landslide. I do think that FL and OH are probably coinflips still, but in the scenario where TX flips that wouldn't matter. Which is good, Florida should stay far away from being the deciding vote in all future elections, especially Broward county. | ||
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FlaShFTW
United States10529 Posts
On November 03 2020 13:14 Nevuk wrote: Here's an excellent 538 tool for election night. Flip a state and it'll tell you the odds of other states based on that result. (538 will do their final updates at 12 PM EST, btw) https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-biden-election-map/?cid=abcnews I think Biden is going to take Texas, short of absolute nonsense from the courts to throw out ballots (very unlikely). How that map looks + Show Spoiler + Basically a landslide. I do think that FL and OH are probably coinflips still, but in the scenario where TX flips that wouldn't matter. Which is good, Florida should stay far away from being the deciding vote in all future elections, especially Broward county. how do you have texas florida and ohio flipping but not ME-2 haha. | ||
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Nevuk
United States16280 Posts
On November 03 2020 13:44 FlaShFTW wrote: how do you have texas florida and ohio flipping but not ME-2 haha. Haha, I just went by everything >70% chance if TX flipped. Supposedly that would mean FL 95%, GA 88%. The others were a lot closer. Ohio was at 70%, ME2 was at 67 and IA was at 65%. That's a pretty optimistic map though. I still don't really trust GA due to Kemp and FL due to its populace. I think if Ohio flips a ton of states will have flipped before it. The one I posted a while back in the thread is more realistic, this is just based on how high TX turnout looks to be. | ||
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Deleted User 173346
16169 Posts
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Mohdoo
United States15743 Posts
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Belisarius
Australia6233 Posts
On November 03 2020 14:09 Mohdoo wrote: Tomorrow I have no meetings until 1 PST, at which point I have 4 hours of meetings where I am presenting it at least actively speaking. It’s gonna be a mess. I've always wondered how this works. It's not an issue in countries where election day is a holiday or a weekend, but when it's ostensibly a normal weekday I bet things get... weird. Do people just pretend it isn't happening or is literally everyone in the room just f5ing their phones during your presentation? Is it appropriate to take 5 and slap up a poll tracker then keep going or what? | ||
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