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On November 03 2020 22:04 dbRic1203 wrote:
How long until we have the first results/ predictions?
And a site where it is bundled for all states?
Sitting here and don t have anything to do, so I d like to keep informed about it, but can t even name half the states ad have no idear how important they are, so I m looking for some sort of overview. Its between 5-8 am in the US. It will be hours before you start seeing the first result and predictions.
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On November 03 2020 22:04 dbRic1203 wrote:
How long until we have the first results/ predictions?
And a site where it is bundled for all states?
Sitting here and don t have anything to do, so I d like to keep informed about it, but can t even name half the states ad have no idear how important they are, so I m looking for some sort of overview.
Probably not for another 12-14 hours from now.
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I think Florida will tell fairly early the story of this election.
If Trump loses it, he is toast obv.
If he wins it narrowly, election is on but most likely for biden still, and we have to wait more and this might drag for weeks.
If he seems to be winning by a large margin, then Trump chances become suddenly very good.
Anecdotal evidence so far points to large lines of people waiting to vote since polls opening early.
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On November 03 2020 22:04 dbRic1203 wrote:
How long until we have the first results/ predictions?
And a site where it is bundled for all states?
Sitting here and don t have anything to do, so I d like to keep informed about it, but can t even name half the states ad have no idear how important they are, so I m looking for some sort of overview.
To see what states are important, you can have a look here :
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/
The snake is what you're looking for, it will show you the tipping point states and their polling averages for now. Hint : Pennsylvania is the most likely decider, and the one that will give its results the latest... (mail-in votes do not start being counted before today, or even after voting-day votes are tallied in certain precincts)
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This will probably be one of the update sources I use too 
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On November 03 2020 22:10 GoTuNk! wrote:
I think Florida will tell fairly early the story of this election.
If Trump loses it, he is toast obv.
If he wins it narrowly, election is on but most likely for biden still, and we have to wait more and this might drag for weeks.
If he seems to be winning by a large margin, then Trump chances become suddenly very good.
Anecdotal evidence so far points to large lines of people waiting to vote since polls opening early.
That sounds quite reasonable, though demographics are so different in Florida and, say, Pennsylvania that you can imagine Trump winning very comfortably the former and losing the latter.
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On November 03 2020 21:27 Simberto wrote:Show nested quote +On November 03 2020 20:35 WombaT wrote:On November 03 2020 17:22 r00ty wrote:
Radical extremist left/communist: People throwing those words around lightly are just making an ass out of themselves, sorry. I experienced the last waves of the RAF in Germany and the ETA in Spain/France as a kid and i can't see that in the US. I checked the list of terrorist attacks in the US over the last 50 years and there's more attacks on abortion clinics than anything resembling "leftwing terror". I'd rather be afraid of the next Timothy McVeigh and the guys whose wet dream it is, to make "The Turner Diaries" a reality and radical islam.
Please take care and stay safe everybody.
Really had to take a double-take on that, I'd initially been rather surprised that we had an active TL poster who was old enough to remember the raids of the Royal Air Force and was going to pester you with questions about the good old days :p + Show Spoiler +Stuff on international forums is often similarly confusing for Germans, because to us RAF pretty much always means this: ![[image loading]](https://www.verfassungsschutz-bw.de/site/lfv/get/1675332/raf_logo.gif) Rote Armee Fraktion, and not Royal Air Force.
Yeah no worries, WombaT was just joking i guess. A witness of the other RAF raids would be my dad. 
It's not like "our RAF" is completely unknown outside of Germany or is it? Sorry, if so. Anyhow, is there's anything comparable to those groups in the US? Like the columbian ELN, marxist kurds or parts of the IRA back in the day?
If Bernie and AOC are your "radical left", be glad and carry on. If Biden is your "radical left", you need to educate yourself.
On November 03 2020 20:14 Oukka wrote:+ Show Spoiler +Last time I stayed up with a few friends to watch the election coverage, around 4am here when Trump victory was looking pretty much confirmed we finally gave up. Here's hoping to a very different election night this time.
Everything I've seen points towards a Biden win an even Dems taking Senate as well, which appears pretty much necessary if anyone in US wants their government to actually function. Saw someone suggesting that Senate republicans, specifically McConnell, was already swearing to stop anything from going through. Was that actually said? Not that it surprises me, but don't want to misrepresent him/them unnecessarily. Coming from Finland where I cannot remember a government with less than 3 parties in it, this kind of ultra-partisanship is just incredible and self-destructing.
Amen.
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On November 03 2020 22:31 Biff The Understudy wrote:Show nested quote +On November 03 2020 22:10 GoTuNk! wrote:
I think Florida will tell fairly early the story of this election.
If Trump loses it, he is toast obv.
If he wins it narrowly, election is on but most likely for biden still, and we have to wait more and this might drag for weeks.
If he seems to be winning by a large margin, then Trump chances become suddenly very good.
Anecdotal evidence so far points to large lines of people waiting to vote since polls opening early. That sounds quite reasonable, though demographics are so different in Florida and, say, Pennsylvania that you can imagine Trump winning very comfortably the former and losing the latter.
Fortunately for Biden, winning any of Florida/NC/Pennsylvania should get him to 270+ EVs bar some really wacky polling (like, Dewey beats Truman level polling errors across the Midwest). I think Arizona is a little trickier but also doable.
Would not be surprised to see both Florida and NC down to the wire though, even if both of them have the bulk of their results in tonight.
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Bisutopia19393 Posts
On November 03 2020 23:35 TheTenthDoc wrote:Show nested quote +On November 03 2020 22:31 Biff The Understudy wrote:On November 03 2020 22:10 GoTuNk! wrote:
I think Florida will tell fairly early the story of this election.
If Trump loses it, he is toast obv.
If he wins it narrowly, election is on but most likely for biden still, and we have to wait more and this might drag for weeks.
If he seems to be winning by a large margin, then Trump chances become suddenly very good.
Anecdotal evidence so far points to large lines of people waiting to vote since polls opening early. That sounds quite reasonable, though demographics are so different in Florida and, say, Pennsylvania that you can imagine Trump winning very comfortably the former and losing the latter. Fortunately for Biden, winning any of Florida/NC/Pennsylvania should get him to 270+ EVs bar some really wacky polling (like, Dewey beats Truman level polling errors across the Midwest). I think Arizona is a little trickier but also doable. Would not be surprised to see both Florida and NC down to the wire though, even if both of them have the bulk of their results in tonight.
It makes me happy to live in Florida where we have cities that are willing to vote red and blue ballots on a city, state, and federal level. It feels like we care more about the quality of the candidate and the current event issues more then keeping a party line.
The clear con is that Florida becomes the focus point after election day where everyone points fingers at voter fraud and ballot counting issues. Two weeks ago the Biden team drew up papers to sue the Elections Committee here in Florida and are ready to open lawsuits if they do not win. Trump in response lawyered up with the same team that helped Bush in his first election. We are almost guaranteed a recount here in Florida given the preparation from both sides.
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On November 03 2020 23:26 r00ty wrote:Show nested quote +On November 03 2020 21:27 Simberto wrote:On November 03 2020 20:35 WombaT wrote:On November 03 2020 17:22 r00ty wrote:
Radical extremist left/communist: People throwing those words around lightly are just making an ass out of themselves, sorry. I experienced the last waves of the RAF in Germany and the ETA in Spain/France as a kid and i can't see that in the US. I checked the list of terrorist attacks in the US over the last 50 years and there's more attacks on abortion clinics than anything resembling "leftwing terror". I'd rather be afraid of the next Timothy McVeigh and the guys whose wet dream it is, to make "The Turner Diaries" a reality and radical islam.
Please take care and stay safe everybody.
Really had to take a double-take on that, I'd initially been rather surprised that we had an active TL poster who was old enough to remember the raids of the Royal Air Force and was going to pester you with questions about the good old days :p + Show Spoiler +Stuff on international forums is often similarly confusing for Germans, because to us RAF pretty much always means this: Rote Armee Fraktion, and not Royal Air Force. Yeah no worries, WombaT was just joking i guess. A witness of the other RAF raids would be my dad. It's not like "our RAF" is completely unknown outside of Germany or is it? Sorry, if so. Anyhow, is there's anything comparable to those groups in the US? Like the columbian ELN, marxist kurds or parts of the IRA back in the day? If Bernie and AOC are your "radical left", be glad and carry on. If Biden is your "radical left", you need to educate yourself. Show nested quote +On November 03 2020 20:14 Oukka wrote:+ Show Spoiler +Last time I stayed up with a few friends to watch the election coverage, around 4am here when Trump victory was looking pretty much confirmed we finally gave up. Here's hoping to a very different election night this time.
Everything I've seen points towards a Biden win an even Dems taking Senate as well, which appears pretty much necessary if anyone in US wants their government to actually function. Saw someone suggesting that Senate republicans, specifically McConnell, was already swearing to stop anything from going through. Was that actually said? Not that it surprises me, but don't want to misrepresent him/them unnecessarily. Coming from Finland where I cannot remember a government with less than 3 parties in it, this kind of ultra-partisanship is just incredible and self-destructing. Amen.
We don't so much have organized leftist terrorists, that tends to be be the domain of the right wing in the US, usually militia group types, Proud Boys and their ilk. Fat bearded white people who wish they were elite military mercenaries or other dumb roleplay bullshit, lol.
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On November 04 2020 00:30 JimmiC wrote:Show nested quote +On November 04 2020 00:19 Zambrah wrote:On November 03 2020 23:26 r00ty wrote:On November 03 2020 21:27 Simberto wrote:On November 03 2020 20:35 WombaT wrote:On November 03 2020 17:22 r00ty wrote:
Radical extremist left/communist: People throwing those words around lightly are just making an ass out of themselves, sorry. I experienced the last waves of the RAF in Germany and the ETA in Spain/France as a kid and i can't see that in the US. I checked the list of terrorist attacks in the US over the last 50 years and there's more attacks on abortion clinics than anything resembling "leftwing terror". I'd rather be afraid of the next Timothy McVeigh and the guys whose wet dream it is, to make "The Turner Diaries" a reality and radical islam.
Please take care and stay safe everybody.
Really had to take a double-take on that, I'd initially been rather surprised that we had an active TL poster who was old enough to remember the raids of the Royal Air Force and was going to pester you with questions about the good old days :p + Show Spoiler +Stuff on international forums is often similarly confusing for Germans, because to us RAF pretty much always means this: Rote Armee Fraktion, and not Royal Air Force. Yeah no worries, WombaT was just joking i guess. A witness of the other RAF raids would be my dad. It's not like "our RAF" is completely unknown outside of Germany or is it? Sorry, if so. Anyhow, is there's anything comparable to those groups in the US? Like the columbian ELN, marxist kurds or parts of the IRA back in the day? If Bernie and AOC are your "radical left", be glad and carry on. If Biden is your "radical left", you need to educate yourself. On November 03 2020 20:14 Oukka wrote:+ Show Spoiler +Last time I stayed up with a few friends to watch the election coverage, around 4am here when Trump victory was looking pretty much confirmed we finally gave up. Here's hoping to a very different election night this time.
Everything I've seen points towards a Biden win an even Dems taking Senate as well, which appears pretty much necessary if anyone in US wants their government to actually function. Saw someone suggesting that Senate republicans, specifically McConnell, was already swearing to stop anything from going through. Was that actually said? Not that it surprises me, but don't want to misrepresent him/them unnecessarily. Coming from Finland where I cannot remember a government with less than 3 parties in it, this kind of ultra-partisanship is just incredible and self-destructing. Amen. We don't so much have organized leftist terrorists, that tends to be be the domain of the right wing in the US, usually militia group types, Proud Boys and their ilk. Fat bearded white people who wish they were elite military mercenaries or other dumb roleplay bullshit, lol. Just to add some context to what you are saying. It is mostly right and most of the left ones were actually "eco-terrorism" in the early 00. The left fear, especially "antifa" is pretty silly in reality. ![[image loading]](https://i.imgur.com/AKrs1jW.jpg) https://www.csis.org/analysis/escalating-terrorism-problem-united-stateshttps://www.dhs.gov/sites/default/files/publications/2020_10_06_homeland-threat-assessment.pdf
How does that look like if you plot the actual number of events rather than the ratio?
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exactly the same? nvm you mean year by year, right?
![[image loading]](https://csis-website-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/TNT_Graphics_Web-02.jpg)
Important to note is the unit of the y-axis, which is # of attacks AND plots.
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I wonder if Al Gore going in on climate change might have had an impact in that era, it always seemed like something noone took seriously back then so it's surprising to see.
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United States44373 Posts
On November 04 2020 00:18 BisuDagger wrote:Show nested quote +On November 03 2020 23:35 TheTenthDoc wrote:On November 03 2020 22:31 Biff The Understudy wrote:On November 03 2020 22:10 GoTuNk! wrote:
I think Florida will tell fairly early the story of this election.
If Trump loses it, he is toast obv.
If he wins it narrowly, election is on but most likely for biden still, and we have to wait more and this might drag for weeks.
If he seems to be winning by a large margin, then Trump chances become suddenly very good.
Anecdotal evidence so far points to large lines of people waiting to vote since polls opening early. That sounds quite reasonable, though demographics are so different in Florida and, say, Pennsylvania that you can imagine Trump winning very comfortably the former and losing the latter. Fortunately for Biden, winning any of Florida/NC/Pennsylvania should get him to 270+ EVs bar some really wacky polling (like, Dewey beats Truman level polling errors across the Midwest). I think Arizona is a little trickier but also doable. Would not be surprised to see both Florida and NC down to the wire though, even if both of them have the bulk of their results in tonight. It makes me happy to live in Florida where we have cities that are willing to vote red and blue ballots on a city, state, and federal level. It feels like we care more about the quality of the candidate and the current event issues more then keeping a party line.
That doesn’t follow.
What you’ve done is
1. Assume better candidates are evenly distributed between parties
2. Observe Florida changes hands
3. Conclude that Florida votes for the best candidate because the best candidate changes.
Assumption 1 is invalid but even if it wasn’t the evidence would just as easily support the conclusion that Florida always supports the worst candidate. It’s just bad logic.
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Mixed red and blue ballots are also not unique to Florida in any way, so I'm curious what the basis for picking that state as an exemplar is.
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Already voted for BIDEN weeks ago. He's gonna win. Let's GO!
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EPT![[image loading]](https://images.app.goo.gl/RrcCNVr4gQSZsDM59)
