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United States10397 Posts
On November 04 2020 05:20 GoTuNk! wrote:Show nested quote +On November 04 2020 05:11 Nevuk wrote:
Cautious update so far. Election day turnout in PA is lower than Trump's campaign would like, according to two members of their campaign who spoke to an NBC reporter. They cite very long lines as part of the issue (some other commentors I've read have said 3 hour lines to vote, longer than the 2 hours in the tweet).
That said, Trump's advisors said last year on election day that it was going to take a miracle for Trump to win.
Per NBC WH correspondent
I've also read that FL is only on track for an R +1.5-2% total turnout, and they need 3%+ to win, but the sources for this are sketchier (not the 1.5% , that seems true, the 3% number). (FlashFtW's numbers are what I'm talking about)
huh he is already at 1.41% and he seems to be gaining votes every hour, I don't see any reason to say otherwise
First off, the registered voters do not indicate exactly who they are voting for. Of course, they will most likely stay on party lines.
Second, Dems were actually gaining more support in Broward over the course of the day, started at low single digits now at a +11 for Dems. This probably translates well to the rest of the state as well, so I don't think R are getting a larger % of the lead.
Third, indies matter the most in this election. Even if Rs are +3%, if Indies show very strongly for Biden, doesn't matter what the party affiliation is at the end of the day.
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On November 04 2020 05:22 FlaShFTW wrote:Show nested quote +On November 04 2020 05:20 GoTuNk! wrote:On November 04 2020 05:11 Nevuk wrote:Cautious update so far. Election day turnout in PA is lower than Trump's campaign would like, according to two members of their campaign who spoke to an NBC reporter. They cite very long lines as part of the issue (some other commentors I've read have said 3 hour lines to vote, longer than the 2 hours in the tweet). That said, Trump's advisors said last year on election day that it was going to take a miracle for Trump to win. Per NBC WH correspondent https://twitter.com/PeterAlexander/status/1323708667213058048I've also read that FL is only on track for an R +1.5-2% total turnout, and they need 3%+ to win, but the sources for this are sketchier (not the 1.5% , that seems true, the 3% number). (FlashFtW's numbers are what I'm talking about) huh he is already at 1.41% and he seems to be gaining votes every hour, I don't see any reason to say otherwise First off, the registered voters do not indicate exactly who they are voting for. Of course, they will most likely stay on party lines. Second, Dems were actually gaining more support in Broward over the course of the day, started at low single digits now at a +11 for Dems. This probably translates well to the rest of the state as well, so I don't think R are getting a larger % of the lead. Third, indies matter the most in this election. Even if Rs are +3%, if Indies show very strongly for Biden, doesn't matter what the party affiliation is at the end of the day.
Yeah I'm just talking about the data we have, registered voters among party lines.
Where Indies lean is just guessing. I am extremely confident the latino vote in florida will flip heavely towards Trump, both on D and I registered voters.
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Can we follow current stats from somewhere?
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United States10397 Posts
On November 04 2020 05:31 Luolis wrote:
Can we follow current stats from somewhere?
Nothing on the larger websites as of yet, I'm just F5ing twitter right now and hopefully catching some things from pollsters. Otherwise refreshing NYT for their updates as the day goes on. I expect more real hard hitting news to start breaking an hour before the first few states close.
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On November 03 2020 10:17 JimmiC wrote:
I got Mich, Wisconsin, NC Zona and Pennsylvania all going to Biden. And then my risky prediction is Texas goes blue baby!
I think Biden loses Penn, unsure on Mich, Texas I don't see going blue any sooner than 28 or 32
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United States10397 Posts
On November 04 2020 05:49 Cricketer12 wrote:Show nested quote +On November 03 2020 10:17 JimmiC wrote:
I got Mich, Wisconsin, NC Zona and Pennsylvania all going to Biden. And then my risky prediction is Texas goes blue baby! I think Biden loses Penn, unsure on Mich, Texas I don't see going blue any sooner than 28 or 32
post your map, we need a collection and see who gets the closest tonight.
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On November 04 2020 05:11 Nevuk wrote:Cautious update so far. Election day turnout in PA is lower than Trump's campaign would like, according to two members of their campaign who spoke to an NBC reporter. They cite very long lines as part of the issue (some other commentors I've read have said 3 hour lines to vote, longer than the 2 hours in the tweet). That said, Trump's advisors said last year on election day that it was going to take a miracle for Trump to win. Per NBC WH correspondent https://twitter.com/PeterAlexander/status/1323708667213058048I've also read that FL is only on track for an R +1.5-2% total turnout, and they need 3%+ to win, but the sources for this are sketchier (not the 1.5% , that seems true, the 3% number). (FlashFtW's numbers are what I'm talking about)
Out of curiosity, why is it so important for Trump (rather than Biden) to have a huge in-person turnout? Is it because more Democrats voted early, and Trump has to gain some ground, or something?
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On November 04 2020 06:01 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:Show nested quote +On November 04 2020 05:11 Nevuk wrote:Cautious update so far. Election day turnout in PA is lower than Trump's campaign would like, according to two members of their campaign who spoke to an NBC reporter. They cite very long lines as part of the issue (some other commentors I've read have said 3 hour lines to vote, longer than the 2 hours in the tweet). That said, Trump's advisors said last year on election day that it was going to take a miracle for Trump to win. Per NBC WH correspondent https://twitter.com/PeterAlexander/status/1323708667213058048I've also read that FL is only on track for an R +1.5-2% total turnout, and they need 3%+ to win, but the sources for this are sketchier (not the 1.5% , that seems true, the 3% number). (FlashFtW's numbers are what I'm talking about) Out of curiosity, why is it so important to Trump (rather than Biden) to have a huge in-person turnout? Is it because more Democrats voted early, and Trump has to gain some ground, or something?
That's pretty much it. Democrats favour voting early, while Republicans favour voting in-person on Election Day. A strong Election Day turnout from Republicans means there's a realistic chance they can surpass the Democratic early votes and take a nice lead. Meanwhile, a slow Election Day for Republican is a bad sign, meaning their turnout was poor and they probably can't overcome the banked votes Democrats and Democrat-leaning independents created.
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On November 04 2020 06:01 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:Show nested quote +On November 04 2020 05:11 Nevuk wrote:Cautious update so far. Election day turnout in PA is lower than Trump's campaign would like, according to two members of their campaign who spoke to an NBC reporter. They cite very long lines as part of the issue (some other commentors I've read have said 3 hour lines to vote, longer than the 2 hours in the tweet). That said, Trump's advisors said last year on election day that it was going to take a miracle for Trump to win. Per NBC WH correspondent https://twitter.com/PeterAlexander/status/1323708667213058048I've also read that FL is only on track for an R +1.5-2% total turnout, and they need 3%+ to win, but the sources for this are sketchier (not the 1.5% , that seems true, the 3% number). (FlashFtW's numbers are what I'm talking about) Out of curiosity, why is it so important to Trump (rather than Biden) to have a huge in-person turnout? Is it because more Democrats voted early, and Trump has to gain some ground, or something?
Yes, One Hundred Million voted early, that's really good for Biden. The more people that vote the more likely Biden wins. Early results will look like Biden crushing, but as results start to pour in Trump will gain more ground. Towards 6 pm est things get interesting
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United States10397 Posts
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1323732513852981256?s=20
Update from Broward County. Dems continue to widen the gap in registered voters who have cast their ballots. I don't expect it to continue the current pace of growth, but if it somehow did, then we would be looking at +23/25 by the end of the polls closing.
To note: Clinton won Broward by 35 points in 2016. 66-31
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4 point lead is pretty close, can easily be beaten, but we'll see...I'm also curious by what Congress results will be...
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theres gotta be a better update source. i have like 3 tabs open.
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On November 04 2020 06:07 Cricketer12 wrote:4 point lead is pretty close, can easily be beaten, but we'll see...I'm also curious by what Congress results will be...
I'm definitely interested in seeing how the Senate shapes up too. The House should be an easy hold for Dems though.
Is there any particular reason why more Democrats are likely to vote early, while more Republicans are likely to vote in-person, on the actual day of the election?
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On November 04 2020 06:11 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:Show nested quote +On November 04 2020 06:07 Cricketer12 wrote:4 point lead is pretty close, can easily be beaten, but we'll see...I'm also curious by what Congress results will be... I'm definitely interested in seeing how the Senate shapes up too. The House should be an easy hold for Dems though. Is there any particular reason why more Democrats are likely to vote early, while more Republicans are likely to vote in-person, on the actual day of the election?
Honestly not sure, someone else would know better, but if I had to guess it's a matter of what's traditional vs what's innovative/voter fraud/vote not counting fears
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On November 04 2020 06:10 Emnjay808 wrote:
theres gotta be a better update source. i have like 3 tabs open.
Sit tight for a good 2-3 hours. I've read they won't start counting ballots until 7 PM EST in most places. I'd wait until about 8 PM to start seeing more concrete data emerge to draw conclusions on.
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EPT
