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On November 04 2020 06:13 PhoenixVoid wrote:Show nested quote +On November 04 2020 06:10 Emnjay808 wrote:
theres gotta be a better update source. i have like 3 tabs open. Sit tight for a good 2-3 hours. I've read they won't start counting ballots until 7 PM EST in most places. I'd wait until about 8 PM to start seeing more concrete data emerge to draw conclusions on.
yeah first results won't be until 6 pm est, we wont' have anything worth seriously looking at till 7-7:30
Also NC apparently pushed back till 8:15
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For those that are more progressively minded, Hasan Piker is already streaming on twitch, and no doubt will go on all night.
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On November 04 2020 06:14 Cricketer12 wrote:Show nested quote +On November 04 2020 06:13 PhoenixVoid wrote:On November 04 2020 06:10 Emnjay808 wrote:
theres gotta be a better update source. i have like 3 tabs open. Sit tight for a good 2-3 hours. I've read they won't start counting ballots until 7 PM EST in most places. I'd wait until about 8 PM to start seeing more concrete data emerge to draw conclusions on. yeah first results won't be until 6 pm est, we wont' have anything worth seriously looking at till 7-7:30 Also NC apparently pushed back till 8:15
I'm doing that too. At around 8 PM Eastern time - 4 hours from now - I'm going to flex my Protoss APM with F5F5F5 instead of 1a2a3a. Before that, I don't expect to learn anything groundbreaking.
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On November 04 2020 06:16 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:Show nested quote +On November 04 2020 06:14 Cricketer12 wrote:On November 04 2020 06:13 PhoenixVoid wrote:On November 04 2020 06:10 Emnjay808 wrote:
theres gotta be a better update source. i have like 3 tabs open. Sit tight for a good 2-3 hours. I've read they won't start counting ballots until 7 PM EST in most places. I'd wait until about 8 PM to start seeing more concrete data emerge to draw conclusions on. yeah first results won't be until 6 pm est, we wont' have anything worth seriously looking at till 7-7:30 Also NC apparently pushed back till 8:15 I'm doing that too. At around 8 PM Eastern time - 4 hours from now - I'm going to flex my Protoss APM with F5F5F5 instead of 1a2a3a. Before that, I don't expect to learn anything groundbreaking.
I still look forward to having fun keeping an eye on things between now and then
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United States10569 Posts
On November 04 2020 06:07 Cricketer12 wrote:4 point lead is pretty close, can easily be beaten, but we'll see...I'm also curious by what Congress results will be...
4 point lead is misleading, Trafalgar is counted in that average and they literally worked for trump to get better looking polls for him.
Insideradvantage is the only outlier poll in there, if you go back more polls, all polls are from 7-10 points in favor of Biden. Michigan is safe Biden.
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Do we have any info on Florida? I'm hearing from a friends there that lines aren't long at all today
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On November 04 2020 06:26 Cricketer12 wrote:
Do we have any info on Florida? I'm hearing from a friends there that lines aren't long at all today
I saw a story that there was higher overall turnout 5 hours past polls opening than the entirety of the 2016 election.
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Geez I'm so nervous. The magnitude of the disaster if Trump wins again is hard to overestimate.
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While I do still use RCP as an aggregator and it has very convenient features other poll aggregators lack, I've been noticing more of its flaws lately. There's moments it excludes polls that show a good result for a Democrat despite being surveyed in the timeframe they're averaging, and its averaging is prone to being influenced by spammy pollsters like Trafalgar. For comparison, 538 puts Biden's lead in Michigan at +7.9, The Economist's model looks to be in a similar number as well and CNN's poll aggregating is +9. More importantly, they're all above 50 in those.
Admittedly it could be coping because I don't like seeing Biden with bad numbers and RCP could be doing things right, but I think it's worthwhile to look outside of just RCP.
David Wasserman, a pro at district level and county polling, has this useful guide to see how well Trump will do with the elderly in Florida by looking at Sumter Co.
+ Show Spoiler +Final pre-election tip: if you see Sumter Co., FL (The Villages) report ~84k votes shortly after 7pm and it's:
64% Trump or less: very good for Biden
65%-66%: possibly good for Biden
67%-68%: FL on track to be FL
69%-70%: possibly good for Trump
71%+ Trump: very good for Trump
Important addendum: if you see Sumter Co., FL (The Villages) eventually report ~95k votes and it's:
66% Trump or less: very good for Biden
67%-68%: possibly good for Biden
69%-70%: FL on track to be FL
71%-72%: possibly good for Trump
73%+ Trump: very good for Trump
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Pretty long lines here today but nothing extreme, it moved at a decent pace; perhaps lines look longer than expected when social distancing is enforced. Voted mostly libertarian (my county is deep red so I'd prefer getting 3rd party numbers up.)
On November 04 2020 05:12 schaf wrote:
Oh and is Kanye on the ballot anywhere?
In Oklahoma, yes.
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Republican ED turnout is way up in PA, AZ, and FL. Dem turn-out in many counties lower than NPA / Other. I expect Trump to win all three, AZ by 2%, PA by 1% and FL by 3%. Compared to 2016 Republicans also had better EV margins. Hard to tell which way the NPA / Independent crowd will swing in these states, but the GOP has banked so many advantages all ready it is going to take a big Biden break with them for him to win. Some of you predicting Texas, FL, GA, etc. going to Biden I have to wonder besides the skewed polling what actual #'s you're going by? Look at the actual SOE / County #'s / State EV/ED #'s compared to 2016, not polling that have MOE of +/- 4.5% lol.
Anyway, I voted Jorgenson today and GOP down-ballot (Dems would have a shot at my vote if they weren't all progressives with socialist inclinations (on my ballot)).
PS: I live in Florida.
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Hyrule19260 Posts
Dem turnout is lower because more Dems voted by mail in ballot. I find it highly unlikely PA will go to Trump.
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On November 04 2020 06:42 Wegandi wrote:
Republican ED turnout is way up in PA, AZ, and FL. Dem turn-out in many counties lower than NPA / Other. I expect Trump to win all three, AZ by 2%, PA by 1% and FL by 3%. Compared to 2016 Republicans also had better EV margins. Hard to tell which way the NPA / Independent crowd will swing in these states, but the GOP has banked so many advantages all ready it is going to take a big Biden break with them for him to win. Some of you predicting Texas, FL, GA, etc. going to Biden I have to wonder besides the skewed polling what actual #'s you're going by? Look at the actual SOE / County #'s / State EV/ED #'s compared to 2016, not polling that have MOE of +/- 4.5% lol.
Anyway, I voted Jorgenson today and GOP down-ballot (Dems would have a shot at my vote if they weren't all progressives with socialist inclinations).
PS: I live in Florida.
I'm not sure why you think that establishment Democrats, who are neoliberal / typical right-leaning moderate politicians from the perspective of most of the rest of the world, have socialist inclinations, but I definitely appreciate that you voted for JJ instead of DT.
Do you have a specific site or two that you prefer to look at, when assessing EV/ED #s and all that jazz?
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On November 04 2020 06:45 tofucake wrote:
Dem turnout is lower because more Dems voted by mail in ballot. I find it highly unlikely PA will go to Trump.
Which is why I said look at EV #'s. Let's take FL for instance. Compared to 2016 Dems have a LOWER EV margin. They're also getting crushed on ED. Trump will improve on his 2016 FL win unless NPA swing huge for Biden. Miami-Dade has swung hugely for Trump compared to 2016. That's not good for Dems.
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Anyone expecting a 'Blue Wave' is sadly mistaken, going by the pre-election early vote results.
Gallup did a poll back in September that showed Democrats far more likely than republicans to vote before election day
https://news.gallup.com/poll/321602/extreme-partisan-gaps-early-voting-emerge-year.aspx
Democrats with a 34 point spread higher than republicans regard to voting early : 62% for Dems vs 28% for republicans.Now i highly doubt if the final difference would be that great but lets look at the raw EV numbers for NC and FL.
By the 2nd November the Democrat lead in FL was 114,617 which is around ~8k higher than the democrat EV lead in 2016. (Some guy on twitter compiled the data from the state election site and created this nifty spreadsheet that was handy for me https://ibb.co/2Nj3Pnm ) In NC the story was the same, On the 31st October Democrats were up 255,000 vs Republican registrations https://s3.amazonaws.com/dl.ncsbe.gov/Press/NC Absentee Stats for 2020 General Election/Absentee_Stats_2020General_10312020.pdf - in 2016 Democrats were ahead in EV in NC by slightly over 300,000! ( https://heavy.com/news/2016/11/north-carolina-early-voting-results-2016-election-donald-trump-hillary-clinton-votes-cast-turnout-up-down-increase-decrease-who-winning-republicans-democrats/ )
This isn't taking into account independents and cross party voting possibly breaking for Biden but IMO the trend was pretty clear considering the huge difference in Democrats wanting to vote early and the EV party registration data not backing that up.Seemed to me that far more republicans would turn up on election day to vote in person than Democrats, in historical terms, as shown by the gallup poll.I don't know what the situation will be in the rust belt but in NC and FL at least i don't believe Democrats will have enough of a buffer.
Furthermore there was an article from Politico about Miami-Dade county in Florida that showed lower turnout among key Democrat demographics in early voting.
Democrats sound alarm in Miami https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/29/miami-voter-turnout-democrats-433643
MIAMI — Democrats are sounding the alarm about weak voter turnout rates in Florida’s biggest county, Miami-Dade, where a strong Republican showing is endangering Joe Biden’s chances in the nation’s biggest swing state.
No Democrat can win Florida without a huge turnout and big winning margins here to offset losses elsewhere in the state. But Democrats are turning out at lower rates than Republicans and at lower rates than at this point in 2016, when Hillary Clinton won by 29 percentage points here and still lost the state to Donald Trump.
One particular area of concern is the relative share of ballots cast by young voters of color and less-reliable Democratic voters. Part of the problem, according to interviews with a dozen Democratic elected officials and operatives, is the Biden campaign‘s decision to discourage field staff from knocking on doors during the pandemic and its subsequent delay in greenlighting — and funding — a return to door-to-door canvassing.
Until that politico Miami article i hadn't even considered that the Biden campaign had stopped doorknocking due to COVID, even though i did know Bidens ground campaign was inferior to Trumps.I believe Trumps campaign was doorknocking the whole time? depending on state lockdown/restriction rules of course.If the news, EV data and turnout favoured Biden and a Biden win I'd call that but all i'll say so far is there certainly no sign of a 'blue wave'.
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On November 04 2020 06:46 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:Show nested quote +On November 04 2020 06:42 Wegandi wrote:
Republican ED turnout is way up in PA, AZ, and FL. Dem turn-out in many counties lower than NPA / Other. I expect Trump to win all three, AZ by 2%, PA by 1% and FL by 3%. Compared to 2016 Republicans also had better EV margins. Hard to tell which way the NPA / Independent crowd will swing in these states, but the GOP has banked so many advantages all ready it is going to take a big Biden break with them for him to win. Some of you predicting Texas, FL, GA, etc. going to Biden I have to wonder besides the skewed polling what actual #'s you're going by? Look at the actual SOE / County #'s / State EV/ED #'s compared to 2016, not polling that have MOE of +/- 4.5% lol.
Anyway, I voted Jorgenson today and GOP down-ballot (Dems would have a shot at my vote if they weren't all progressives with socialist inclinations).
PS: I live in Florida. I'm not sure why you think that establishment Democrats, who are neoliberal / typical right-leaning moderate politicians from the perspective of most of the rest of the world, have socialist inclinations, but I definitely appreciate that you voted for JJ instead of DT. Do you have a specific site or two that you prefer to look at, when assessing EV/ED #s and all that jazz?
For Florida: joeisdone.github.io (don't mind the partisan name, it is purely #'s from SOE/Counties)
Dude, all the Dems on my ballot were for nationalized healthcare, the Green New Deal, 15$ min wage, increased regulatory state, huge on climate change taxation/business restrictions, etc. They're not Larry McDonald lmao.
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The thing that leaves me skeptical is that I don't see who would ever vote for Trump that didn't vote for him last time.
Ok, someone voted for him in 16 and votes for him again. Right. But, really is there ANYONE who thinks "I was skeptical last time, but guy has delivered, he has my vote." That makes no sense, it's been a four year slow mo train crash.
Same thing for voting against Biden. If you didn't vote against Hillary, you won't vote against Biden. There is just no reason to.
So, altogether, where are the extra votes coming from for Trump? I just can't really imagine.
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Haven't followed US pol for a while. Did Trump manage to cover up his insanity pre-election and does the average voter have a memory for things he said over the last few years when he thought himself immortal?
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EPT
