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On November 04 2020 07:00 Biff The Understudy wrote:
The thing that leaves me skeptical is that I don't see who would ever vote for Trump that didn't vote for him last time.
Ok, someone voted for him in 16 and votes for him again. Right. But, really is there ANYONE who thinks "I was skeptical last time, but guy has delivered, he has my vote." That makes no sense, it's been a four year slow mo train crash.
Same thing for voting against Biden. If you didn't vote against Hillary, you won't vote against Biden. There is just no reason to.
So, altogether, where are the extra votes coming from for Trump? I just can't really imagine.
You have huge blinders and severe cog biases. Because you can't imagine it, it can't be so? The #'s are crystal clear so far. We'll see how NPA's / I's break when the votes are counted, but by purely RV's Republicans are crushing Dems compared to 2016 in these swing states.
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On November 04 2020 07:02 Vivax wrote:
Haven't followed US pol for a while. Did Trump manage to cover up his insanity pre-election and does the average voter have a memory for things he said over the last few years when he thought himself immortal?
Trump has said and done insane things every week for at least the past 4 years, and people decided long ago as to whether or not anything Trump said/did would be disqualifying. I don't think the past month or so drastically changed anyone's mind.
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On November 04 2020 07:02 Wegandi wrote:Show nested quote +On November 04 2020 07:00 Biff The Understudy wrote:
The thing that leaves me skeptical is that I don't see who would ever vote for Trump that didn't vote for him last time.
Ok, someone voted for him in 16 and votes for him again. Right. But, really is there ANYONE who thinks "I was skeptical last time, but guy has delivered, he has my vote." That makes no sense, it's been a four year slow mo train crash.
Same thing for voting against Biden. If you didn't vote against Hillary, you won't vote against Biden. There is just no reason to.
So, altogether, where are the extra votes coming from for Trump? I just can't really imagine. You have huge blinders and severe cog biases. Because you can't imagine it can't be so? The #'s are crystal clear so far. We'll see how NPA's / I's break when the votes are counted, but by purely RV's Republicans are crushing Dems compared to 2016 in these swing states.
Brother, we have literally zero number that mean shit right now, and if you relax, take a deep breath and *think* you will realize that too.
Just wait a few hours, and then we start talking about any kind if result and how things are looking. For now, it's EXTREMELY incomplete information with more unknown variable that one can count. So stop that, it's tiring.
But anyway. Yeah, it's very hard to imagine that Trump, who won by the skin of his teeth against Clinton and her 6000 real and imaginary scandals will improve a lot his numbers this time. Unless I am missing something big.
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Going to polling places having to wear a mask and social distance is something that will force people to remember the fed response to the 'Rona. So that is something that could get votes flipped. But I agree with Biff.
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On November 04 2020 07:08 Biff The Understudy wrote:Show nested quote +On November 04 2020 07:02 Wegandi wrote:On November 04 2020 07:00 Biff The Understudy wrote:
The thing that leaves me skeptical is that I don't see who would ever vote for Trump that didn't vote for him last time.
Ok, someone voted for him in 16 and votes for him again. Right. But, really is there ANYONE who thinks "I was skeptical last time, but guy has delivered, he has my vote." That makes no sense, it's been a four year slow mo train crash.
Same thing for voting against Biden. If you didn't vote against Hillary, you won't vote against Biden. There is just no reason to.
So, altogether, where are the extra votes coming from for Trump? I just can't really imagine. You have huge blinders and severe cog biases. Because you can't imagine it can't be so? The #'s are crystal clear so far. We'll see how NPA's / I's break when the votes are counted, but by purely RV's Republicans are crushing Dems compared to 2016 in these swing states. Brother, we have literally zero number that mean shit right now, and if you relax, take a deep breath and *think* you will realize that too. Just wait a few hours, and then we start talking about any kind if result and how things are looking. For now, it's EXTREMELY incomplete information with more unknown variable that one can count. So stop that, it's tiring. But anyway. Yeah, it's very hard to imagine that Trump, who won by the skin of his teeth against Clinton and her 6000 real and imaginary scandals will improve a lot his numbers this time. Unless I am missing something big.
We have great #'s from FL.
joeisdone.github.io
Biden has to win the I / NPA vote by a huge margin to have a shot. We also have AZ ED and EV #'s and they're looking the same as FL. PA is not too different.
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On November 04 2020 06:54 Wegandi wrote:Show nested quote +On November 04 2020 06:46 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On November 04 2020 06:42 Wegandi wrote:
Republican ED turnout is way up in PA, AZ, and FL. Dem turn-out in many counties lower than NPA / Other. I expect Trump to win all three, AZ by 2%, PA by 1% and FL by 3%. Compared to 2016 Republicans also had better EV margins. Hard to tell which way the NPA / Independent crowd will swing in these states, but the GOP has banked so many advantages all ready it is going to take a big Biden break with them for him to win. Some of you predicting Texas, FL, GA, etc. going to Biden I have to wonder besides the skewed polling what actual #'s you're going by? Look at the actual SOE / County #'s / State EV/ED #'s compared to 2016, not polling that have MOE of +/- 4.5% lol.
Anyway, I voted Jorgenson today and GOP down-ballot (Dems would have a shot at my vote if they weren't all progressives with socialist inclinations).
PS: I live in Florida. I'm not sure why you think that establishment Democrats, who are neoliberal / typical right-leaning moderate politicians from the perspective of most of the rest of the world, have socialist inclinations, but I definitely appreciate that you voted for JJ instead of DT. Do you have a specific site or two that you prefer to look at, when assessing EV/ED #s and all that jazz? For Florida: joeisdone.github.io (don't mind the partisan name, it is purely #'s from SOE/Counties) Dude, all the Dems on my ballot were for nationalized healthcare, the Green New Deal, 15$ min wage, increased regulatory state, huge on climate change taxation/business restrictions, etc. They're not Larry McDonald lmao.
I get why you might be against healthcare, wage, and etc but climate change? Who gives a shit what you have or what others will have if we are going to suffer tremendously because of climate change in 2040-2050
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On November 04 2020 07:10 Wegandi wrote:Show nested quote +On November 04 2020 07:08 Biff The Understudy wrote:On November 04 2020 07:02 Wegandi wrote:On November 04 2020 07:00 Biff The Understudy wrote:
The thing that leaves me skeptical is that I don't see who would ever vote for Trump that didn't vote for him last time.
Ok, someone voted for him in 16 and votes for him again. Right. But, really is there ANYONE who thinks "I was skeptical last time, but guy has delivered, he has my vote." That makes no sense, it's been a four year slow mo train crash.
Same thing for voting against Biden. If you didn't vote against Hillary, you won't vote against Biden. There is just no reason to.
So, altogether, where are the extra votes coming from for Trump? I just can't really imagine. You have huge blinders and severe cog biases. Because you can't imagine it can't be so? The #'s are crystal clear so far. We'll see how NPA's / I's break when the votes are counted, but by purely RV's Republicans are crushing Dems compared to 2016 in these swing states. Brother, we have literally zero number that mean shit right now, and if you relax, take a deep breath and *think* you will realize that too. Just wait a few hours, and then we start talking about any kind if result and how things are looking. For now, it's EXTREMELY incomplete information with more unknown variable that one can count. So stop that, it's tiring. But anyway. Yeah, it's very hard to imagine that Trump, who won by the skin of his teeth against Clinton and her 6000 real and imaginary scandals will improve a lot his numbers this time. Unless I am missing something big. We have great #'s from FL. joeisdone.github.ioBiden has to win the I / NPA vote by a huge margin to have a shot. We also have AZ ED and EV #'s and they're looking the same as FL. PA is not too different.
Mate. Your website is called joeisdone. Get real for fuck sake.
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We are not going to know anything for at least another couple hours. All these numbers coming in are just like fun little tidbits but polls have not even closed yet.around 8 or 9 are we going to have to start to panic or know if the blue wave us here.
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As for those "great #", here is what someone who doesn't run a website called joeisdone has to say
And I'm NOT saying that I know who will win. No one knows.
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On November 04 2020 07:10 Shinokuki wrote:Show nested quote +On November 04 2020 06:54 Wegandi wrote:On November 04 2020 06:46 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On November 04 2020 06:42 Wegandi wrote:
Republican ED turnout is way up in PA, AZ, and FL. Dem turn-out in many counties lower than NPA / Other. I expect Trump to win all three, AZ by 2%, PA by 1% and FL by 3%. Compared to 2016 Republicans also had better EV margins. Hard to tell which way the NPA / Independent crowd will swing in these states, but the GOP has banked so many advantages all ready it is going to take a big Biden break with them for him to win. Some of you predicting Texas, FL, GA, etc. going to Biden I have to wonder besides the skewed polling what actual #'s you're going by? Look at the actual SOE / County #'s / State EV/ED #'s compared to 2016, not polling that have MOE of +/- 4.5% lol.
Anyway, I voted Jorgenson today and GOP down-ballot (Dems would have a shot at my vote if they weren't all progressives with socialist inclinations).
PS: I live in Florida. I'm not sure why you think that establishment Democrats, who are neoliberal / typical right-leaning moderate politicians from the perspective of most of the rest of the world, have socialist inclinations, but I definitely appreciate that you voted for JJ instead of DT. Do you have a specific site or two that you prefer to look at, when assessing EV/ED #s and all that jazz? For Florida: joeisdone.github.io (don't mind the partisan name, it is purely #'s from SOE/Counties) Dude, all the Dems on my ballot were for nationalized healthcare, the Green New Deal, 15$ min wage, increased regulatory state, huge on climate change taxation/business restrictions, etc. They're not Larry McDonald lmao. I get why you might be against healthcare, wage, and etc but climate change? Who gives a shit what you have or what others will have if we are going to suffer tremendously because of climate change in 2040-2050
My views on the climate change doomists are well known, plus even if what they say is true it's still not as bad as all the policy programs relating to "climate change". Poverty will do more harm to folks than even the worse-case scientific prognostications. I'd rather not slide into Argentina, Venezuela, Sub-Saharan Africa, etc.
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On November 04 2020 07:12 Biff The Understudy wrote:Show nested quote +On November 04 2020 07:10 Wegandi wrote:On November 04 2020 07:08 Biff The Understudy wrote:On November 04 2020 07:02 Wegandi wrote:On November 04 2020 07:00 Biff The Understudy wrote:
The thing that leaves me skeptical is that I don't see who would ever vote for Trump that didn't vote for him last time.
Ok, someone voted for him in 16 and votes for him again. Right. But, really is there ANYONE who thinks "I was skeptical last time, but guy has delivered, he has my vote." That makes no sense, it's been a four year slow mo train crash.
Same thing for voting against Biden. If you didn't vote against Hillary, you won't vote against Biden. There is just no reason to.
So, altogether, where are the extra votes coming from for Trump? I just can't really imagine. You have huge blinders and severe cog biases. Because you can't imagine it can't be so? The #'s are crystal clear so far. We'll see how NPA's / I's break when the votes are counted, but by purely RV's Republicans are crushing Dems compared to 2016 in these swing states. Brother, we have literally zero number that mean shit right now, and if you relax, take a deep breath and *think* you will realize that too. Just wait a few hours, and then we start talking about any kind if result and how things are looking. For now, it's EXTREMELY incomplete information with more unknown variable that one can count. So stop that, it's tiring. But anyway. Yeah, it's very hard to imagine that Trump, who won by the skin of his teeth against Clinton and her 6000 real and imaginary scandals will improve a lot his numbers this time. Unless I am missing something big. We have great #'s from FL. joeisdone.github.ioBiden has to win the I / NPA vote by a huge margin to have a shot. We also have AZ ED and EV #'s and they're looking the same as FL. PA is not too different. Mate. Your website is called joeisdone. Get real for fuck sake.
Then look at https://twitter.com/umichvoter99?lang=en It's literally just scrubbing from the counties / SOE. Who cares what the site is named?
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On November 04 2020 07:21 Wegandi wrote:Show nested quote +On November 04 2020 07:10 Shinokuki wrote:On November 04 2020 06:54 Wegandi wrote:On November 04 2020 06:46 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On November 04 2020 06:42 Wegandi wrote:
Republican ED turnout is way up in PA, AZ, and FL. Dem turn-out in many counties lower than NPA / Other. I expect Trump to win all three, AZ by 2%, PA by 1% and FL by 3%. Compared to 2016 Republicans also had better EV margins. Hard to tell which way the NPA / Independent crowd will swing in these states, but the GOP has banked so many advantages all ready it is going to take a big Biden break with them for him to win. Some of you predicting Texas, FL, GA, etc. going to Biden I have to wonder besides the skewed polling what actual #'s you're going by? Look at the actual SOE / County #'s / State EV/ED #'s compared to 2016, not polling that have MOE of +/- 4.5% lol.
Anyway, I voted Jorgenson today and GOP down-ballot (Dems would have a shot at my vote if they weren't all progressives with socialist inclinations).
PS: I live in Florida. I'm not sure why you think that establishment Democrats, who are neoliberal / typical right-leaning moderate politicians from the perspective of most of the rest of the world, have socialist inclinations, but I definitely appreciate that you voted for JJ instead of DT. Do you have a specific site or two that you prefer to look at, when assessing EV/ED #s and all that jazz? For Florida: joeisdone.github.io (don't mind the partisan name, it is purely #'s from SOE/Counties) Dude, all the Dems on my ballot were for nationalized healthcare, the Green New Deal, 15$ min wage, increased regulatory state, huge on climate change taxation/business restrictions, etc. They're not Larry McDonald lmao. I get why you might be against healthcare, wage, and etc but climate change? Who gives a shit what you have or what others will have if we are going to suffer tremendously because of climate change in 2040-2050 My views on the climate change doomists are well known, plus even if what they say is true it's still not as bad as all the policy programs relating to "climate change". Poverty will do more harm to folks than even the worse-case scientific prognostications. I'd rather not slide into Argentina, Venezuela, Sub-Saharan Africa, etc.
Imagine being a climate change denier in 2020...
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United States10569 Posts
Some of yall need to calm down with this rhetoric of if its doomed for one side or the other. How about everyone just chill. First sets of polls are gonna close in a about 2 hours. Give it time, then we can start with the doomsday talk.
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On November 04 2020 07:06 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:Show nested quote +On November 04 2020 07:02 Vivax wrote:
Haven't followed US pol for a while. Did Trump manage to cover up his insanity pre-election and does the average voter have a memory for things he said over the last few years when he thought himself immortal? Trump has said and done insane things every week for at least the past 4 years, and people decided long ago as to whether or not anything Trump said/did would be disqualifying. I don't think the past month or so drastically changed anyone's mind.
I tried to think of the best thing he has done during his term and that'd probably be him spamming on twitter. Just for the entertainment value.
I'm not sure that I'd place escalating tariffs and fostering international frictions among those things.
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On November 04 2020 07:21 Wegandi wrote:Show nested quote +On November 04 2020 07:10 Shinokuki wrote:On November 04 2020 06:54 Wegandi wrote:On November 04 2020 06:46 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On November 04 2020 06:42 Wegandi wrote:
Republican ED turnout is way up in PA, AZ, and FL. Dem turn-out in many counties lower than NPA / Other. I expect Trump to win all three, AZ by 2%, PA by 1% and FL by 3%. Compared to 2016 Republicans also had better EV margins. Hard to tell which way the NPA / Independent crowd will swing in these states, but the GOP has banked so many advantages all ready it is going to take a big Biden break with them for him to win. Some of you predicting Texas, FL, GA, etc. going to Biden I have to wonder besides the skewed polling what actual #'s you're going by? Look at the actual SOE / County #'s / State EV/ED #'s compared to 2016, not polling that have MOE of +/- 4.5% lol.
Anyway, I voted Jorgenson today and GOP down-ballot (Dems would have a shot at my vote if they weren't all progressives with socialist inclinations).
PS: I live in Florida. I'm not sure why you think that establishment Democrats, who are neoliberal / typical right-leaning moderate politicians from the perspective of most of the rest of the world, have socialist inclinations, but I definitely appreciate that you voted for JJ instead of DT. Do you have a specific site or two that you prefer to look at, when assessing EV/ED #s and all that jazz? For Florida: joeisdone.github.io (don't mind the partisan name, it is purely #'s from SOE/Counties) Dude, all the Dems on my ballot were for nationalized healthcare, the Green New Deal, 15$ min wage, increased regulatory state, huge on climate change taxation/business restrictions, etc. They're not Larry McDonald lmao. I get why you might be against healthcare, wage, and etc but climate change? Who gives a shit what you have or what others will have if we are going to suffer tremendously because of climate change in 2040-2050 My views on the climate change doomists are well known, plus even if what they say is true it's still not as bad as all the policy programs relating to "climate change". Poverty will do more harm to folks than even the worse-case scientific prognostications. I'd rather not slide into Argentina, Venezuela, Sub-Saharan Africa, etc.
Please refer to them as "experts" or "scientists", not "doomers" or "alarmists". And if you want to avoid poverty so badly, why aren't you a proponent for increased minimum wage or addressing climate change? Seems inconsistent to me, to say poverty is bad while perpetuating social inequity and not caring about the existential threat of climate change.
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On November 04 2020 07:21 Wegandi wrote:Show nested quote +On November 04 2020 07:10 Shinokuki wrote:On November 04 2020 06:54 Wegandi wrote:On November 04 2020 06:46 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On November 04 2020 06:42 Wegandi wrote:
Republican ED turnout is way up in PA, AZ, and FL. Dem turn-out in many counties lower than NPA / Other. I expect Trump to win all three, AZ by 2%, PA by 1% and FL by 3%. Compared to 2016 Republicans also had better EV margins. Hard to tell which way the NPA / Independent crowd will swing in these states, but the GOP has banked so many advantages all ready it is going to take a big Biden break with them for him to win. Some of you predicting Texas, FL, GA, etc. going to Biden I have to wonder besides the skewed polling what actual #'s you're going by? Look at the actual SOE / County #'s / State EV/ED #'s compared to 2016, not polling that have MOE of +/- 4.5% lol.
Anyway, I voted Jorgenson today and GOP down-ballot (Dems would have a shot at my vote if they weren't all progressives with socialist inclinations).
PS: I live in Florida. I'm not sure why you think that establishment Democrats, who are neoliberal / typical right-leaning moderate politicians from the perspective of most of the rest of the world, have socialist inclinations, but I definitely appreciate that you voted for JJ instead of DT. Do you have a specific site or two that you prefer to look at, when assessing EV/ED #s and all that jazz? For Florida: joeisdone.github.io (don't mind the partisan name, it is purely #'s from SOE/Counties) Dude, all the Dems on my ballot were for nationalized healthcare, the Green New Deal, 15$ min wage, increased regulatory state, huge on climate change taxation/business restrictions, etc. They're not Larry McDonald lmao. I get why you might be against healthcare, wage, and etc but climate change? Who gives a shit what you have or what others will have if we are going to suffer tremendously because of climate change in 2040-2050 My views on the climate change doomists are well known, plus even if what they say is true it's still not as bad as all the policy programs relating to "climate change". Poverty will do more harm to folks than even the worse-case scientific prognostications. I'd rather not slide into Argentina, Venezuela, Sub-Saharan Africa, etc.
but the issue is that climate change will literally send 1st world country into 3rd world and 3rd world countries to pour into those new third world countries. It will be worse
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United States10569 Posts
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On November 04 2020 07:24 Luolis wrote:Show nested quote +On November 04 2020 07:21 Wegandi wrote:On November 04 2020 07:10 Shinokuki wrote:On November 04 2020 06:54 Wegandi wrote:On November 04 2020 06:46 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On November 04 2020 06:42 Wegandi wrote:
Republican ED turnout is way up in PA, AZ, and FL. Dem turn-out in many counties lower than NPA / Other. I expect Trump to win all three, AZ by 2%, PA by 1% and FL by 3%. Compared to 2016 Republicans also had better EV margins. Hard to tell which way the NPA / Independent crowd will swing in these states, but the GOP has banked so many advantages all ready it is going to take a big Biden break with them for him to win. Some of you predicting Texas, FL, GA, etc. going to Biden I have to wonder besides the skewed polling what actual #'s you're going by? Look at the actual SOE / County #'s / State EV/ED #'s compared to 2016, not polling that have MOE of +/- 4.5% lol.
Anyway, I voted Jorgenson today and GOP down-ballot (Dems would have a shot at my vote if they weren't all progressives with socialist inclinations).
PS: I live in Florida. I'm not sure why you think that establishment Democrats, who are neoliberal / typical right-leaning moderate politicians from the perspective of most of the rest of the world, have socialist inclinations, but I definitely appreciate that you voted for JJ instead of DT. Do you have a specific site or two that you prefer to look at, when assessing EV/ED #s and all that jazz? For Florida: joeisdone.github.io (don't mind the partisan name, it is purely #'s from SOE/Counties) Dude, all the Dems on my ballot were for nationalized healthcare, the Green New Deal, 15$ min wage, increased regulatory state, huge on climate change taxation/business restrictions, etc. They're not Larry McDonald lmao. I get why you might be against healthcare, wage, and etc but climate change? Who gives a shit what you have or what others will have if we are going to suffer tremendously because of climate change in 2040-2050 My views on the climate change doomists are well known, plus even if what they say is true it's still not as bad as all the policy programs relating to "climate change". Poverty will do more harm to folks than even the worse-case scientific prognostications. I'd rather not slide into Argentina, Venezuela, Sub-Saharan Africa, etc. Imagine being a climate change denier in 2020...
Yeah, because if you're not GH level doomist then you're a denier. It's why I don't take you guys seriously when this is your position.
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EPT
