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On November 04 2020 21:46 pmh wrote:Show nested quote +On November 04 2020 21:39 KungKras wrote:On November 04 2020 21:29 Gorsameth wrote:On November 04 2020 21:25 farvacola wrote:
For those interested in shifting the Democrats towards the left, these results are fairly good in the sense that there is clearly very little credence to the crossover appeal tack of folks like Biden. It's gonna take something else, like actually offering a compelling and contrasting vision of how government works. I don't think Biden won the primary because of crossover appeal with Republicans. But because the Democratic party simply has less people further to the left (Bernie) then they have voters who are more centralist. The mistake progressives seem to keep making is thinking they are a majority and its only through tricks and cheats that the centralist keep them out of power. But if you do polls on policies that the progressives support like universal healthcare, ending student loan debt, not doing wars, etc, they are overwhelmingly popular, so there is some truth in them actually being a majority but hidden by the media. Its not so much the platform i think. The progressives have to overcome the negative stigma that they have in american politics. A stigma so big that the conservatives at times campaign on the opponent beeing a socialist even though they very rarely are an actual socialist. "Progressives haven't run any notable campaigns outside of progressive urban strongholds." Sanders kinda did.
Looking at opinion polls that seems to have already happened. Hell last night Fox News polled their own viewers and it showed that 7 out of 10 preferred Medicare for All rather than the ACA.
It's the refusal of both parties to show/give up he reins of power to younger members that has set the rot in.
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I mean, the "easy" way to interpret the Florida results is that Florida should be assumed lost on any progressive D ticket. There will be a lot of unpacking to do there, though.
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We aren't going to get what we want most likely, the Democrats will push their centrists under any circumstances, electoralism in the US is actually broken and we need to accept that. To reiterate this for the umpteenth time, I'm not saying not to vote or participate, but to stop expecting change via the vote. Rich people will never let it happen.
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On November 04 2020 21:39 KungKras wrote:Show nested quote +On November 04 2020 21:29 Gorsameth wrote:On November 04 2020 21:25 farvacola wrote:
For those interested in shifting the Democrats towards the left, these results are fairly good in the sense that there is clearly very little credence to the crossover appeal tack of folks like Biden. It's gonna take something else, like actually offering a compelling and contrasting vision of how government works. I don't think Biden won the primary because of crossover appeal with Republicans. But because the Democratic party simply has less people further to the left (Bernie) then they have voters who are more centralist. The mistake progressives seem to keep making is thinking they are a majority and its only through tricks and cheats that the centralist keep them out of power. But if you do polls on policies that the progressives support like universal healthcare, ending student loan debt, not doing wars, etc, they are overwhelmingly popular, so there is some truth in them actually being a majority but hidden by the media. Yes progress policies are very popular but progress candidates often lose and people still vote Republican in elections. Looks like those policies are not what people are basing their vote on.
There is a world of difference between what a person agrees with when he sits at home and what he cares about when he is standing in the voting booth as evident by people not voting based on these popular policies.
This is kind of what I mean when I say progressives mistakenly think they are a majority. Yes their beliefs often poll at a majority approval, but people aren't voting based on that, as evident by the fact they aren't the primary or general election. (I don't know enough about down ballot votes to comment if the same trend is active there).
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On November 04 2020 21:49 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:Show nested quote +On November 04 2020 21:46 pmh wrote:On November 04 2020 21:39 KungKras wrote:On November 04 2020 21:29 Gorsameth wrote:On November 04 2020 21:25 farvacola wrote:
For those interested in shifting the Democrats towards the left, these results are fairly good in the sense that there is clearly very little credence to the crossover appeal tack of folks like Biden. It's gonna take something else, like actually offering a compelling and contrasting vision of how government works. I don't think Biden won the primary because of crossover appeal with Republicans. But because the Democratic party simply has less people further to the left (Bernie) then they have voters who are more centralist. The mistake progressives seem to keep making is thinking they are a majority and its only through tricks and cheats that the centralist keep them out of power. But if you do polls on policies that the progressives support like universal healthcare, ending student loan debt, not doing wars, etc, they are overwhelmingly popular, so there is some truth in them actually being a majority but hidden by the media. Its not so much the platform i think. The progressives have to overcome the negative stigma that they have in american politics. A stigma so big that the conservatives at times campaign on the opponent beeing a socialist even though they very rarely are an actual socialist. "Progressives haven't run any notable campaigns outside of progressive urban strongholds." Sanders kinda did. Looking at opinion polls that seems to have already happened. Hell last night Fox News polled their own viewers and it showed that 7 out of 10 preferred Medicare for All rather than the ACA.
Imagine if Democrats spent 4 years running on Medicare for All leading into a pandemic instead of Russiagate and a fruitless impeachment.
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On November 04 2020 21:49 TheTenthDoc wrote:
I mean, the "easy" way to interpret the Florida results is that Florida should be assumed lost on any progressive D ticket. There will be a lot of unpacking to do there, though.
I say toss Florida (into the sea preferably) and focus on traditional union states. Get strong unions going. Be worker friendly.
Pick the battles worth winning imo, I don't believe Florida is generally going to be worth winning.
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The progressive ideas aren't the problem, it's the relationship between the Democratic Party and those ideas, along with the people who actually run, that are the real problems.
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What are good assumptions for % win assuming Biden does win for MI and WI?
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Its not about Biden just like it wasn't about Clinton. Not really. What were either of them offering that people really want?
The only answer I can think of is 'Not Trump' and that is the problem with the dems. They have nothing that can take people's eyes off Trump. No strong, simple policy for changing people's lives, no easy message that people can get behind. Nothing, just 'not Trump'. Its not enough.
I'm not saying their policies aren't going to help anyone, i'm saying they do a really, really bad job of getting that across and barely even seem to have tried this time.
If they're going to insist on resisting leftism, they would be much better picking a single issue, making a policy for drastic reform in one area where the US could do with change, like I dunno healthcare or something neutrals care about and just run with it.
Instead they refuse to stop Trump from dictating the narrative of US politics and actually play into his hands most of the time.
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On November 04 2020 21:53 farvacola wrote:
The progressive ideas aren't the problem, it's the relationship between the Democratic Party and those ideas, along with the people who actually run, that are the real problems.
It's because the Democratic party isn't an ally to progressive (let alone social democratic, or democratic socialist) ideas, they are an oppositional force and will remain so as long as they persist as a party imo.
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On November 04 2020 21:55 Jockmcplop wrote:
Its not about Biden just like it wasn't about Clinton. Not really. What were either of them offering that people really want?
The only answer I can think of is 'Not Trump' and that is the problem with the dems. They have nothing that can take people's eyes off Trump. No strong, simple policy for changing people's lives, no easy message that people can get behind. Nothing, just 'not Trump'. Its not enough.
I'm not saying their policies aren't going to help anyone, i'm saying they do a really, really bad job of getting that across and barely even seem to have tried this time.
If they're going to insist on resisting leftism, they would be much better picking a single issue, making a policy for drastic reform in one area where the US could do with change, like I dunno healthcare or something neutrals care about and just run with it.
Instead they refuse to stop Trump from dictating the narrative of US politics and actually play into his hands most of the time. Was there a way to stop Trump from dictating the narrative with all the crazy stuff he does and the news's desire to report on that crazy stuff 24/7?
And I don't blame the news for that even, they are selling what the people want to hear. Many many people love watching a complete trainwreck happen.
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Minnesota looks likely to remain the only split legislature in the country.
I can't roll my eyes hard enough.
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Democrats all rallying to Biden after he won 1 state in the primary was a huge mistake. His campaign was doing really bad, and suddenly he got full days of media coverage for all the endorsements he enjoyed before super tuesday. And that was it, suddenly he was the chosen one.
We have to rally behind Biden, because imagine how good Trump would do if facing a 'socialist'. Well Trump said fuck you, I'll call Biden a socialist anyway and make it work. I'll call Kamala Harris radical left. It doesn't matter.
Florida went to Trump because of the communist scare he created. Yet they also voted for 15 dollar minimum wage one of Bernie's key policy issues. What Bernie wanted to do was actually popular and he should've had a chance to bring that message to the presidential election.
Instead we got Biden who's best campaign strategy for a while was to minimize media appearances so he wouldn't say silly things. That's the powerhouse sent to defeat Trump in the most important election in decades.
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It's also the packaging. Talking of democratic socialism, revolution, and so, is fucking stupid. You win some millenials in New York or Washington DC at the price of scaring the hell out of the dozens millions people that have grown up being told socialism was the devil.
Progressives should keep their agenda just as it is, not change a single idea, but start selling it without painting a giant target on their own back for absolutely no reason.
I think, honestly, that with his primaries rhetoric, Sanders would have been steamrolled, while his ideas are in themselves probably quite popular.
A bit of introspection and rethinking, and progressives can push their ideas forward and win. Unfortunately, most of what I have heard is about how the establishment is mean and so on. That doesn't win elections. They need to sell their policies and convince the country.
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On November 04 2020 21:55 GreenHorizons wrote:Show nested quote +On November 04 2020 21:53 farvacola wrote:
The progressive ideas aren't the problem, it's the relationship between the Democratic Party and those ideas, along with the people who actually run, that are the real problems. It's because the Democratic party isn't an ally to progressive (let alone social democratic, or democratic socialist) ideas, they are an oppositional force and will remain so as long as they persist as a party imo.
Parties aren't allies to anyone, they are tools that are only as good as they are useful. I do not think the party is inherently opposed to progressive ideas, but the party leadership is and to the extent youre singling them out, I agree.
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On November 04 2020 21:55 Jockmcplop wrote:
Its not about Biden just like it wasn't about Clinton. Not really. What were either of them offering that people really want?
The only answer I can think of is 'Not Trump' and that is the problem with the dems. They have nothing that can take people's eyes off Trump. No strong, simple policy for changing people's lives, no easy message that people can get behind. Nothing, just 'not Trump'. Its not enough.
I'm not saying their policies aren't going to help anyone, i'm saying they do a really, really bad job of getting that across and barely even seem to have tried this time.
If they're going to insist on resisting leftism, they would be much better picking a single issue, making a policy for drastic reform in one area where the US could do with change, like I dunno healthcare or something neutrals care about and just run with it.
Instead they refuse to stop Trump from dictating the narrative of US politics and actually play into his hands most of the time.
Policy doesn't matter. Clinton had a fully developed policy platform ready to go and the narrative is still somehow that she didn't have anything, while the guy who actually didn't have anything went on to be President.
Bernie had a platform of these policies that offered things people want, and Biden got the nomination over him this year, and Clinton got it last year.
The public in general do not care about policy when it comes to election time, no matter how often they answer these polls saying they want x and y. The fact is that when they get a chance to actually vote on these things, they don't vote for them in the numbers the polls would suggest.
Also. to those expecting trouble, looks like its starting according to this: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-election-2020/trump-won-election-ballots-count-supreme-court-biden-b1581628.html?utm_source=reddit.com
Trump's apparently already said he's won and called on the SC to stop the ballot counting.
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On November 04 2020 22:01 Biff The Understudy wrote:
It's also the packaging. Talking of democratic socialism, revolution, and so, is fucking stupid. You win some millenials in New York or Washington DC at the price of scaring the hell out of the dozens millions people that have grown up being told socialism was the devil.
Progressives should keep their agenda just as it is, not change a single idea, but start selling it without painting a giant target on their own back for absolutely no reason.
I think, honestly, that with his primaries rhetoric, Sanders would have been steamrolled, while his ideas are in themselves probably quite popular.
A bit of introspection and rethinking, and progressives can push their ideas forward and win. Unfortunately, most of what I have heard is about how the establishment is mean and so on. That doesn't win elections. They need to sell their policies and convince the country.
Actually exactly that wins you elections... Trump did it 4 years ago and almost did/does it again this year.
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On November 04 2020 21:21 Acrofales wrote:Show nested quote +On November 04 2020 21:17 Zambrah wrote:
That it's had to be this close should be a wake up call that you should choose charismatic candidates and not rely on swinging votes from the opposite party. Even a Donald Trump won't sway a Republican from voting Republican, Democrats should focus on candidates that are popular, do popular things, and that people actively like.
Aka not Biden or Clinton.
I'm sure they'll learn this lesson this time. For sure. Insofar as I understand things, Biden is well liked. Probably more well-liked than Bernie Sanders. And yes, my own personal political opinion is way more in line with Bernie Sanders than Joe Biden. Biden would be right in the middle of the VVD in the Netherlands, and I have never and will never vote VVD.
You're generally a reasonable guy Acro but this is just nonsense. Biden isn't in favour of things like lowering the corporate tax rate and income taxes for high earners and deregulating like the VVD. The VVD is also against things decriminalising drugs and immigration. They're pretty conservative all things considered. VVD is more like a republican light party than anything. Imo someone like Biden fits more with D66. A party in the middle which believes in markets but with a big welfare state and which is liberal on social issues.
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Michigan is looking great, isn't it? Trump only .5 percent ahead, with 14% of the ballots to count.
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EPT
