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United Kingdom10014 Posts
On November 04 2020 21:58 Gorsameth wrote:Show nested quote +On November 04 2020 21:55 Jockmcplop wrote:
Its not about Biden just like it wasn't about Clinton. Not really. What were either of them offering that people really want?
The only answer I can think of is 'Not Trump' and that is the problem with the dems. They have nothing that can take people's eyes off Trump. No strong, simple policy for changing people's lives, no easy message that people can get behind. Nothing, just 'not Trump'. Its not enough.
I'm not saying their policies aren't going to help anyone, i'm saying they do a really, really bad job of getting that across and barely even seem to have tried this time.
If they're going to insist on resisting leftism, they would be much better picking a single issue, making a policy for drastic reform in one area where the US could do with change, like I dunno healthcare or something neutrals care about and just run with it.
Instead they refuse to stop Trump from dictating the narrative of US politics and actually play into his hands most of the time. Was there a way to stop Trump from dictating the narrative with all the crazy stuff he does and the news's desire to report on that crazy stuff 24/7?And I don't blame the news for that even, they are selling what the people want to hear. Many many people love watching a complete trainwreck happen.
Yes, I think so.
Like I said, make policy that is eye catching and serious. Proper reforms of stuff that everyone knows need reforming. There's so many things in the US that we all know need fixing, its not like they are lacking for stuff to talk about.
The problem is that the dems wanted Trump to keep making headlines because they misjudged how little trust the public has in media coverage of Trump. If your policies are eye catching enough, people will be talking about those, not Trump, and if you can make Trump talk about your policies even better.
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An interesting tidbit that 538 mentioned:
Biden is most likely going to hold onto his leads in NV and WI.
If the late count in MI turns that state blue, then he's already won and doesn't need any other state. We still have PA, GA, and NC as questionable after NV, WI, and MI.
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Regardless of what the outcome is, american vote counting is one of the clowniest processes i have seen in the world. India counts almost all their votes in a single day , even counting postal ballots and almost 700 mil people vote there.
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On November 04 2020 22:04 Biff The Understudy wrote:
Michigan is looking great, isn't it? Trump only .5 percent ahead, with 14% of the ballots to count.
Biden will win Michigan by a fair margin.
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What primary rhetoric did Sanders use, he hardly went around declaring, SOCIALISM IS GOD, every rally I watched was him reiterating policy, police reform, prison reform, Medicare for all, worker rights, Green New Deal, tax reform, etc. etc.
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On November 04 2020 22:04 Batmankills wrote:
Regardless of what the outcome is, american vote counting is one of the clowniest processes i have seen in the world. India counts almost all their votes in a single day , even counting postal ballots and almost 700 mil people vote there.
I don't think words can express how embarrassing our entire political system is when compared to the rest of the world.
Of course your average American has no concept of how pathetic the system itself is, and if you try to bring this up, they get irrationally defensive.
What primary rhetoric did Sanders use, he hardly went around declaring, SOCIALISM IS GOD, every rally I watched was him reiterating policy, police reform, prison reform, Medicare for all, worker rights, Green New Deal, tax reform, etc. etc.
He repeatedly used the "revolution" rhetoric and he was actually terrible at defending his policies against generic "socialism bad" attacks.
I don't think people remember how lackluster Bernie was in debates. I don't know if he would've lost, but he would've been absolutely savaged by Republican branding of his campaign.
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On November 04 2020 22:03 sharkie wrote:Show nested quote +On November 04 2020 22:01 Biff The Understudy wrote:
It's also the packaging. Talking of democratic socialism, revolution, and so, is fucking stupid. You win some millenials in New York or Washington DC at the price of scaring the hell out of the dozens millions people that have grown up being told socialism was the devil.
Progressives should keep their agenda just as it is, not change a single idea, but start selling it without painting a giant target on their own back for absolutely no reason.
I think, honestly, that with his primaries rhetoric, Sanders would have been steamrolled, while his ideas are in themselves probably quite popular.
A bit of introspection and rethinking, and progressives can push their ideas forward and win. Unfortunately, most of what I have heard is about how the establishment is mean and so on. That doesn't win elections. They need to sell their policies and convince the country. Actually exactly that wins you elections... Trump did it 4 years ago and almost did/does it again this year.
If it did, Sanders would have won. Twice.
The left is not the right. You can't go full populist and bullshit your way with inflammatory rhetoric. And that's a good thing. Trump is NOT a model to follow.
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On November 04 2020 22:05 Zambrah wrote:
What primary rhetoric did Sanders use, he hardly went around declaring, SOCIALISM IS GOD, every rally I watched was him reiterating policy, police reform, prison reform, Medicare for all, worker rights, Green New Deal, tax reform, etc. etc.
I think Sanders was more a victim of his supporters than himself in that regard.
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On November 04 2020 22:06 Biff The Understudy wrote:Show nested quote +On November 04 2020 22:03 sharkie wrote:On November 04 2020 22:01 Biff The Understudy wrote:
It's also the packaging. Talking of democratic socialism, revolution, and so, is fucking stupid. You win some millenials in New York or Washington DC at the price of scaring the hell out of the dozens millions people that have grown up being told socialism was the devil.
Progressives should keep their agenda just as it is, not change a single idea, but start selling it without painting a giant target on their own back for absolutely no reason.
I think, honestly, that with his primaries rhetoric, Sanders would have been steamrolled, while his ideas are in themselves probably quite popular.
A bit of introspection and rethinking, and progressives can push their ideas forward and win. Unfortunately, most of what I have heard is about how the establishment is mean and so on. That doesn't win elections. They need to sell their policies and convince the country. Actually exactly that wins you elections... Trump did it 4 years ago and almost did/does it again this year. If it did, Sanders would have won. Twice. The left is not the right. You can't go full populist and bullshit your way with inflammatory rhetoric. And that's a good thing. Trump is NOT a model to follow.
Sanders never had the chance to challenge a republican? He was always stopped by the elitist democrats
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Probably ends 270 to 268 for Biden and Trump will not accept it and the unrest and violence will begin.
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United Kingdom10014 Posts
On November 04 2020 22:03 iamthedave wrote:Show nested quote +On November 04 2020 21:55 Jockmcplop wrote:
Its not about Biden just like it wasn't about Clinton. Not really. What were either of them offering that people really want?
The only answer I can think of is 'Not Trump' and that is the problem with the dems. They have nothing that can take people's eyes off Trump. No strong, simple policy for changing people's lives, no easy message that people can get behind. Nothing, just 'not Trump'. Its not enough.
I'm not saying their policies aren't going to help anyone, i'm saying they do a really, really bad job of getting that across and barely even seem to have tried this time.
If they're going to insist on resisting leftism, they would be much better picking a single issue, making a policy for drastic reform in one area where the US could do with change, like I dunno healthcare or something neutrals care about and just run with it.
Instead they refuse to stop Trump from dictating the narrative of US politics and actually play into his hands most of the time. Policy doesn't matter. Clinton had a fully developed policy platform ready to go and the narrative is still somehow that she didn't have anything, while the guy who actually didn't have anything went on to be President. Bernie had a platform of these policies that offered things people want, and Biden got the nomination over him this year, and Clinton got it last year. The public in general do not care about policy when it comes to election time, no matter how often they answer these polls saying they want x and y. The fact is that when they get a chance to actually vote on these things, they don't vote for them in the numbers the polls would suggest.
Actually I don't think this is true, and I don't think you can compare the Democratic primary to the Presidential election like that, they are not the same.
The question stands though, what is Biden offering that people want, other than 'not Trump'?
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Sanders doesn’t talk about how the establishment is mean, he plays ball with the Democrats to a degree I often find frustrating??
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The Cuban vote seemed to have been crucial for Trump's win in Florida. He may have gotten their appeal with his reversal of the Obama-era détente with Cuba, as well as his standard mudslinging about his opponents being radical socialists.
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On November 04 2020 22:04 Stratos_speAr wrote:
An interesting tidbit that 538 mentioned:
Biden is most likely going to hold onto his leads in NV and WI.
If the late count in MI turns that state blue, then he's already won and doesn't need any other state. We still have PA, GA, and NC as questionable after NV, WI, and MI.
Yep, and from the outstanding count locations in MI and WI it's hard for me to see how Trump wins either state (but it is certainly still possible!), especially if early and absentees are what's remaining.
I mean, in MI, Biden is only down by ~30K and still has ~100K votes to pick up in Wayne that Trump has to neutralize somehow. Even if those split badly it's still difficult for Trump.
I don't know what to make of Nevada though, those tea leaves are too hard for my feeble low sleep brain to parse out.
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Looks like the popular vote tallies are around 69-70M for Biden and 66-67M for Trump so far. Trump is definitely going to lose the popular vote for a second time.
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On November 04 2020 22:08 sharkie wrote:Show nested quote +On November 04 2020 22:06 Biff The Understudy wrote:On November 04 2020 22:03 sharkie wrote:On November 04 2020 22:01 Biff The Understudy wrote:
It's also the packaging. Talking of democratic socialism, revolution, and so, is fucking stupid. You win some millenials in New York or Washington DC at the price of scaring the hell out of the dozens millions people that have grown up being told socialism was the devil.
Progressives should keep their agenda just as it is, not change a single idea, but start selling it without painting a giant target on their own back for absolutely no reason.
I think, honestly, that with his primaries rhetoric, Sanders would have been steamrolled, while his ideas are in themselves probably quite popular.
A bit of introspection and rethinking, and progressives can push their ideas forward and win. Unfortunately, most of what I have heard is about how the establishment is mean and so on. That doesn't win elections. They need to sell their policies and convince the country. Actually exactly that wins you elections... Trump did it 4 years ago and almost did/does it again this year. If it did, Sanders would have won. Twice. The left is not the right. You can't go full populist and bullshit your way with inflammatory rhetoric. And that's a good thing. Trump is NOT a model to follow. Sanders never had the chance to challenge a republican? He was always stopped by the elitist democrats
See, that's what I'm talking about.
He lost because democratic leaning people voted against him. And there are lessons to get from that loss: namely how to convince those folks next time.
Instead it's this kind of crap, and the same thing will happen next time, because we have learnt nothing.
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According to the odds makers Trump's a 2 to 1 favourite to win now.
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What were the Hillary numbers? We have more turnout this time right, so if Biden wins the popular vote by 3M like Hillary then he’s actually less popular overall?
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On November 04 2020 22:11 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:
Looks like the popular vote tallies are around 69-70M for Biden and 66-67M for Trump so far. Trump is definitely going to lose the popular vote for a second time.
My main takeaways from that is that Trump gained MILLIONS of extra votes and the popular vote difference %-wise might be less than in 2016, both are pretty wild.
Of course the popular vote doesn't matter at all, but still.
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On November 04 2020 22:10 TheTenthDoc wrote:Show nested quote +On November 04 2020 22:04 Stratos_speAr wrote:
An interesting tidbit that 538 mentioned:
Biden is most likely going to hold onto his leads in NV and WI.
If the late count in MI turns that state blue, then he's already won and doesn't need any other state. We still have PA, GA, and NC as questionable after NV, WI, and MI. Yep, and from the outstanding count locations in MI and WI it's hard for me to see how Trump wins either state (but it is certainly still possible!), especially if early and absentees are what's remaining. I don't know what to make of Nevada though, those tea leaves are too hard for my feeble low sleep brain to parse out.
From what I've read, all remaining outstanding votes in NV/WI/MI are early/absentee ballots, which should heavily skew blue, so it's pretty promising for Biden.
This is also the case in PA, but he is so far behind there currently that it will be close.
NC will also be counting early/absentee for another week, which could change that outcome.
GA is still waiting on the Atlanta area, and the NYT Needle still gives Biden a 64% chance of winning GA.
According to the odds makers Trump's a 2 to 1 favourite to win now.
This makes absolutely no sense, for the reasons mentioned above.
Biden is actually in a very good position to win the election.
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EPT
