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On November 11 2020 21:52 Biff The Understudy wrote:Show nested quote +On November 11 2020 17:59 GreenHorizons wrote:On November 11 2020 17:39 Biff The Understudy wrote:On November 11 2020 12:10 GreenHorizons wrote:On November 11 2020 09:51 Nevuk wrote:On November 11 2020 09:31 plasmidghost wrote:
So uh, I'm pretty fucking terrified of Trump purging the Pentagon to get his sycophants in charge Wouldn't work, even if he got them in charge. At least, it wouldn't work how Trump envisages it: He may be a wanna-be dictator (at this point, there's no way anyone can doubt this), but he's one with extremely narrow military support in the officer corps. The only way he can retain power is if he gets the military to literally go and start arresting any politicians who disagree with him or refuse to do his bidding. He's flatly not popular enough for that. His popularity among the enlisted has also radically fallen. I posted a poll a while back from Military Times that noted Biden was four points ahead of Trump in their polls of the military from all ranks (ie, it's a randomized poll of both officers and enlisted across all ranks). If Trump declares martial law, he has to have the military willing to back it with force. There are no absolutely no signs that they are. He'd need a full purge of the officer corps, not just the people in charge, and there isn't the time or the will for that. They won't kill or arrest US citizens, on US soil, just because Trump says to do it: these aren't the US police. Each US state also has its own military in the form of the national guard, which makes it even harder to do. (Even a plurality republicans already acknowledge that this result isn't going to be changed) So why not just use the police and not the military? Because he is not the commander in chief of the police? My point is just that it makes more sense to me for Trump to appeal to the massive, armed, recognized source of authority that overwhelmingly supports him and has been brutally repressing dissent for the past several months + Show Spoiler +(well pretty much their entire existence, but especially so since George Floyd) . Well, sure but "the police" doesn't exist as a single entity; it's a myriads of police department, each with their chain of command that have nothing to do with the federal executive and whose hierarchies ultimately depends upon people who are certainly not on board with his BS. He can call upon the police like he can call upon 2A people, although he might have more chances with the latter because they don't receive orders from a distinct, hostile hierarchy. The army, on the other hand, has a unified hierarchy, and he is supposed to be the boss of the whole thing. You can imagine a world in which the POTUS puts general sympathetic to his authoritarian cause on charge and then, it's about whether inferior level folks actually disobey direct orders.
Police are one of the few parts of the US workforce that are still pretty well organized. The largest group, the Fraternal Order of Police represents ~300,000+ cops. They and practically every other police union endorsed Trump.
If this was a real attempt and not just theater so that when he concedes people are relieved instead of outraged he's not being held accountable I'd be more worried about police going rogue from municipal control they are already at odds with (think NYPD-De Blasio) than the military falling in line behind Trump (at least initially).
I don't know that the military would intervene at all, instead leaving it to the civilian sector to resolve and go from there.
While I'm not worried about Trump masterminding a coup intentionally, I am not sure he might not rile up his supporters beyond his ability to reel them back in leading to states just rejecting federal authority in specific instances under Biden generally undermining the semblance of stability we have left, with Biden's only 'remedy' being unending capitulation.
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On November 11 2020 22:48 GreenHorizons wrote:Show nested quote +On November 11 2020 21:52 Biff The Understudy wrote:On November 11 2020 17:59 GreenHorizons wrote:On November 11 2020 17:39 Biff The Understudy wrote:On November 11 2020 12:10 GreenHorizons wrote:On November 11 2020 09:51 Nevuk wrote:On November 11 2020 09:31 plasmidghost wrote:
So uh, I'm pretty fucking terrified of Trump purging the Pentagon to get his sycophants in charge Wouldn't work, even if he got them in charge. At least, it wouldn't work how Trump envisages it: He may be a wanna-be dictator (at this point, there's no way anyone can doubt this), but he's one with extremely narrow military support in the officer corps. The only way he can retain power is if he gets the military to literally go and start arresting any politicians who disagree with him or refuse to do his bidding. He's flatly not popular enough for that. His popularity among the enlisted has also radically fallen. I posted a poll a while back from Military Times that noted Biden was four points ahead of Trump in their polls of the military from all ranks (ie, it's a randomized poll of both officers and enlisted across all ranks). If Trump declares martial law, he has to have the military willing to back it with force. There are no absolutely no signs that they are. He'd need a full purge of the officer corps, not just the people in charge, and there isn't the time or the will for that. They won't kill or arrest US citizens, on US soil, just because Trump says to do it: these aren't the US police. Each US state also has its own military in the form of the national guard, which makes it even harder to do. (Even a plurality republicans already acknowledge that this result isn't going to be changed) So why not just use the police and not the military? Because he is not the commander in chief of the police? My point is just that it makes more sense to me for Trump to appeal to the massive, armed, recognized source of authority that overwhelmingly supports him and has been brutally repressing dissent for the past several months + Show Spoiler +(well pretty much their entire existence, but especially so since George Floyd) . Well, sure but "the police" doesn't exist as a single entity; it's a myriads of police department, each with their chain of command that have nothing to do with the federal executive and whose hierarchies ultimately depends upon people who are certainly not on board with his BS. He can call upon the police like he can call upon 2A people, although he might have more chances with the latter because they don't receive orders from a distinct, hostile hierarchy. The army, on the other hand, has a unified hierarchy, and he is supposed to be the boss of the whole thing. You can imagine a world in which the POTUS puts general sympathetic to his authoritarian cause on charge and then, it's about whether inferior level folks actually disobey direct orders. Police are one of the few parts of the US workforce that are still pretty well organized. The largest group, the Fraternal Order of Police represents ~300,000+ cops. They and practically every other police union endorsed Trump. If this was a real attempt and not just theater so that when he concedes people are relieved instead of outraged he's not being held accountable I'd be more worried about police going rogue from municipal control they (think NYPD-De Blasio) are already at odds with than the military falling in line behind Trump (at least initially). I don't know that the military would intervene at all, instead leaving it to the civilian sector to resolve and go from there. While I'm not worried about Trump masterminding a coup intentionally, I am not sure he might not rile up his supporters beyond his ability to reel them back in leading to states just rejecting federal authority in specific instances under Biden generally undermining the semblance of stability we have left, with Biden's only 'remedy' being unending capitulation.
I think the US will be fine, for now. But in the long term, if the GOP becomes an authoritarian party - which we will know as soon as Trump is out of the picture -, it will be kind of difficult to avoid pulling a Hungary. There are A LOT of exploits in the US constitution - starting with packing the Supreme Court - that have been lines in the sand that nobody has dared crossing. If everyone goes all out in taking advantage of every design flaw, one party can very well end up securing its future in power for ever.
Which btw, is the reason I am really conflicted about Biden adding justices in the SC, even though at first sight he absolutely should. I think it might be an extremely slippery road.
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As long as Republicans have a viable hold on power adding SC justices is a risky prospect, we need the Democrats to gain and wield the power they're perfectly capable of acquiring in such a way that shows that Republicans arent going to be winning many elections in the future, first being get the Senate and get PR and DC in as states, which probably requires a fundamental shift in their leadership.
EDIT: Kamala Harris' husband quit their law firm for a role in the Biden administration.
I'm glad that we'll have echoes of Trump in our Democrats now. Thats the sound of the lowered bar clicking into place...
https://thehill.com/homenews/525326-harriss-husband-leaving-law-firm-for-role-in-biden-administration
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I think as long as people imagine the two parties as oppositional (imperfect) representatives of voters, rather than bifurcated implements of an increasingly factionalized ruling class, we're dead in the water.
For the master's tools will never dismantle the master's house. They may allow us temporarily to beat him at his own game, but they will never enable us to bring about genuine change. And this fact is only threatening to those [people] who still define the master's house as their only source of support.
—Audre Lorde
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On November 11 2020 22:24 schaf wrote:
Trump can't win, relax. Public support is all that matters in such a situation and people voting Trump doesn't mean they support abolishing democracy for him.
I dunno. You should hope for the best but prepare for the worst, not prepare for the best and hope the worst doesn't come to pass.
I, too, hope it's unrealistic that Trump has the military support to perform an armed coup to stay in power, however it woudnt surprise me if he remains in power for "just one more period" due to unfaithful electors, or GOP powerplayers using donalds undocumented shrieks of voter fraud to claim election results as inconclusive to keep the new-found voter base brought in by donald loyal.
Enough of donalds GOP supporters are aligning with his fraud narrative, undermining public trust in the voting system. They are already eager to toss away democracy for their own power.
Hope for the best, but prepare for the worst.
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Faithless electors are Trumps only real viable path imo, and WOW that would cause an uproar, that'd be a huge subversion of the will of the voters. It also has a fair chance of being upheld at the Supreme Court. Im not sure the electors are willing to be pilloried in service to Trump though, even if the worst occurs I dont believe its a battle Trump wins in the end.
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Northern Ireland27464 Posts
On November 11 2020 22:38 overt wrote:
Yeah, people should definitely stay vigilante but this situation is proving that the US still has strong systems in place to prevent totalitarianism. Our courts are dismissing his cases, our states are all proceeding with vote certification, and on December 14th it’ll be official.
If people still support Trump’s bid after the electors officially confirm Biden then they’re opposed to our very constitution.
The main damage here is going to be disenfranchisement and an ugly new precedent of the President refusing to transition the government. Could have disastrous consequences for the first year of the Biden administration and if it becomes normalized then a crises as a result of the new administration not knowing key information during the lame duck period is inevitable.
Isn't that the problem? 
But yeah this is a process with many, many downsides and almost no upsides whatsoever that I can think of. I don't even think it works as a way of disproving some of the outlandish claims made by exposing them to be utter bollocks, because I can't see many of the people on board with this train accepting that under almost any circumstances.
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They finally called Alaska for Trump and the Republican Senator
www.nbcnews.com
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Hi all. I have another question which I hope to have simple answers for.
What is the general consensus of Obama to Americans? The good and the bad. Thanks!
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I think Obama is generally well liked, Republicans generally dont like him and Democrats love him, but Id say hes liked more than disliked overall.
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On November 11 2020 23:38 Zambrah wrote:
Faithless electors are Trumps only real viable path imo, and WOW that would cause an uproar, that'd be a huge subversion of the will of the voters. It also has a fair chance of being upheld at the Supreme Court. Im not sure the electors are willing to be pilloried in service to Trump though, even if the worst occurs I dont believe its a battle Trump wins in the end. In a completely mental sort of way faithless electors not being upheld in the SC would be a bigger travesty to the constitution then them being upheld.
The whole point of electors having a vote instead of merely being a dummy for the people is so that they could overwrite the wishes of the people. Now it was supposed to protect against a complete moron being elected by a dumb populous and not the reverse but hey, them's the breaks.
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On November 11 2020 12:10 GreenHorizons wrote:Show nested quote +On November 11 2020 09:51 Nevuk wrote:On November 11 2020 09:31 plasmidghost wrote:
So uh, I'm pretty fucking terrified of Trump purging the Pentagon to get his sycophants in charge Wouldn't work, even if he got them in charge. At least, it wouldn't work how Trump envisages it: He may be a wanna-be dictator (at this point, there's no way anyone can doubt this), but he's one with extremely narrow military support in the officer corps. The only way he can retain power is if he gets the military to literally go and start arresting any politicians who disagree with him or refuse to do his bidding. He's flatly not popular enough for that. His popularity among the enlisted has also radically fallen. I posted a poll a while back from Military Times that noted Biden was four points ahead of Trump in their polls of the military from all ranks (ie, it's a randomized poll of both officers and enlisted across all ranks). If Trump declares martial law, he has to have the military willing to back it with force. There are no absolutely no signs that they are. He'd need a full purge of the officer corps, not just the people in charge, and there isn't the time or the will for that. They won't kill or arrest US citizens, on US soil, just because Trump says to do it: these aren't the US police. Each US state also has its own military in the form of the national guard, which makes it even harder to do. (Even a plurality republicans already acknowledge that this result isn't going to be changed) So why not just use the police and not the military?
They aren't good enough or numerous enough. They also mostly don't actually answer to Trump, as much as they may dream otherwise. If they do it and fail, then they are facing jail time, loss of their job, and possible execution (I would hope that judges would interpret attempted overthrow of the government as treason, but we do have a weird standard in the US)- they can't even use the "just taking orders" excuse.
The ones that do answer to Trump are few in number and scattered across the country. At the height of his experiment with police oriented fascism, he only had them in Portland and DC simultaneously - and DC only had enough to clear a single square.
The US police forces are also infamously inept.
This sort of takeover takes massive organization skills and operational security. It'd be leaked to the nearest white looking journalist at a bar the night someone thought it up. (Remember, this is would be a national thing across at least 5 states).
I would also add that US police are generally pretty cowardly - this is something that would involve getting into shootouts with the national guard. Do you think they're willing to do that?
On November 11 2020 23:38 Zambrah wrote:
Faithless electors are Trumps only real viable path imo, and WOW that would cause an uproar, that'd be a huge subversion of the will of the voters. It also has a fair chance of being upheld at the Supreme Court. Im not sure the electors are willing to be pilloried in service to Trump though, even if the worst occurs I dont believe its a battle Trump wins in the end.
Technically, Michigan can override its popular vote and send republican electors anyways. None of the other states have the same idiotic system that makes that possible, though, so it doesn't matter. The results in Michigan were also pretty definitive.
(MI has to have its results certified by a four person panel, 2 GOP 2 Democrats, and if they tie, then the republican legislature decides for them).
Also, Trump hasn't made a public appearance since his loss. Kind of weird.
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It's an incremental improvement over Trump!
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Unfaithful EC electors are not an option. Those guys are hand picked for their party loyalty, and if they are unfaithful, like many were (7) or tried to be last time, they pull away, are forces to change their vote, get replaced or vote for another candidate from the same party.
https://www.archives.gov/electoral-college/2016
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On November 12 2020 00:02 Nevuk wrote:Show nested quote +On November 11 2020 12:10 GreenHorizons wrote:On November 11 2020 09:51 Nevuk wrote:On November 11 2020 09:31 plasmidghost wrote:
So uh, I'm pretty fucking terrified of Trump purging the Pentagon to get his sycophants in charge Wouldn't work, even if he got them in charge. At least, it wouldn't work how Trump envisages it: He may be a wanna-be dictator (at this point, there's no way anyone can doubt this), but he's one with extremely narrow military support in the officer corps. The only way he can retain power is if he gets the military to literally go and start arresting any politicians who disagree with him or refuse to do his bidding. He's flatly not popular enough for that. His popularity among the enlisted has also radically fallen. I posted a poll a while back from Military Times that noted Biden was four points ahead of Trump in their polls of the military from all ranks (ie, it's a randomized poll of both officers and enlisted across all ranks). If Trump declares martial law, he has to have the military willing to back it with force. There are no absolutely no signs that they are. He'd need a full purge of the officer corps, not just the people in charge, and there isn't the time or the will for that. They won't kill or arrest US citizens, on US soil, just because Trump says to do it: these aren't the US police. Each US state also has its own military in the form of the national guard, which makes it even harder to do. (Even a plurality republicans already acknowledge that this result isn't going to be changed) So why not just use the police and not the military? They aren't good enough or numerous enough. They also mostly don't actually answer to Trump, as much as they may dream otherwise. If they do it and fail, then they are facing jail time, loss of their job, and possible execution (I would hope that judges would interpret attempted overthrow of the government as treason, but we do have a weird standard in the US)- they can't even use the "just taking orders" excuse. The ones that do answer to Trump are few in number and scattered across the country. At the height of his experiment with police oriented fascism, he only had them in Portland and DC simultaneously - and DC only had enough to clear a single square. The US police forces are also infamously inept. This sort of takeover takes massive organization skills and operational security. It'd be leaked to the nearest white looking journalist at a bar the night someone thought it up. (Remember, this is would be a national thing across at least 5 states). I would also add that US police are generally pretty cowardly - this is something that would involve getting into shootouts with the national guard. Do you think they're willing to do that? Show nested quote +On November 11 2020 23:38 Zambrah wrote:
Faithless electors are Trumps only real viable path imo, and WOW that would cause an uproar, that'd be a huge subversion of the will of the voters. It also has a fair chance of being upheld at the Supreme Court. Im not sure the electors are willing to be pilloried in service to Trump though, even if the worst occurs I dont believe its a battle Trump wins in the end. Technically, Michigan can override its popular vote and send republican electors anyways. None of the other states have the same idiotic system that makes that possible, though, so it doesn't matter. The results in Michigan were also pretty definitive. (MI has to have its results certified by a four person panel, 2 GOP 2 Democrats, and if they tie, then the republican legislature decides for them). Also, Trump hasn't made a public appearance since his loss. Kind of weird.
There are about as many police as there are national guard. Trump clearly isn't attempting anything resembling a typical coup though, he's simply holding the perceived stability of the system hostage and doesn't need to actually "be president" to burn the system down and claim to be the king of the ash heap. My concern is that he can do that largely unintentionally and without the type of organization you're talking about.
Just getting his hundreds of thousands of cop supporters to violently confront anti-Trump protesters (something they're known to do already) can be more than enough to set us on an uncontrollable spiral imo.
IMO the concern isn't that Trump is masterminding some legally nuanced coup, it's that he loses control over the people that think that Biden stole the election/the conflict spirals out of the control of Trump and Biden.
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On November 12 2020 00:41 JimmiC wrote:
It is also important to take into account that not all police support Trump. Just because the union leadership does, does not mean the rank and file does. Union members regularly vote outside of the union leaderships choices. In these Urban areas where Trump did extremely shitty I wouldn't be surprised if more than 50% of the cops there support Biden. They live and know and family with tons of non cops.
No, there is absolutely no chance of this. I know you're not in the US, so you can't see first-hand what the culture is like among US cops, but they are extremely united in their persecution complex. They feel like they are among the most brave, distinguished people in the world and that people mentioning brutality is an enormous disrespect. They see themselves as truly ascended humans.
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On November 12 2020 00:30 GreenHorizons wrote:Show nested quote +On November 12 2020 00:02 Nevuk wrote:On November 11 2020 12:10 GreenHorizons wrote:On November 11 2020 09:51 Nevuk wrote:On November 11 2020 09:31 plasmidghost wrote:
So uh, I'm pretty fucking terrified of Trump purging the Pentagon to get his sycophants in charge Wouldn't work, even if he got them in charge. At least, it wouldn't work how Trump envisages it: He may be a wanna-be dictator (at this point, there's no way anyone can doubt this), but he's one with extremely narrow military support in the officer corps. The only way he can retain power is if he gets the military to literally go and start arresting any politicians who disagree with him or refuse to do his bidding. He's flatly not popular enough for that. His popularity among the enlisted has also radically fallen. I posted a poll a while back from Military Times that noted Biden was four points ahead of Trump in their polls of the military from all ranks (ie, it's a randomized poll of both officers and enlisted across all ranks). If Trump declares martial law, he has to have the military willing to back it with force. There are no absolutely no signs that they are. He'd need a full purge of the officer corps, not just the people in charge, and there isn't the time or the will for that. They won't kill or arrest US citizens, on US soil, just because Trump says to do it: these aren't the US police. Each US state also has its own military in the form of the national guard, which makes it even harder to do. (Even a plurality republicans already acknowledge that this result isn't going to be changed) So why not just use the police and not the military? They aren't good enough or numerous enough. They also mostly don't actually answer to Trump, as much as they may dream otherwise. If they do it and fail, then they are facing jail time, loss of their job, and possible execution (I would hope that judges would interpret attempted overthrow of the government as treason, but we do have a weird standard in the US)- they can't even use the "just taking orders" excuse. The ones that do answer to Trump are few in number and scattered across the country. At the height of his experiment with police oriented fascism, he only had them in Portland and DC simultaneously - and DC only had enough to clear a single square. The US police forces are also infamously inept. This sort of takeover takes massive organization skills and operational security. It'd be leaked to the nearest white looking journalist at a bar the night someone thought it up. (Remember, this is would be a national thing across at least 5 states). I would also add that US police are generally pretty cowardly - this is something that would involve getting into shootouts with the national guard. Do you think they're willing to do that? On November 11 2020 23:38 Zambrah wrote:
Faithless electors are Trumps only real viable path imo, and WOW that would cause an uproar, that'd be a huge subversion of the will of the voters. It also has a fair chance of being upheld at the Supreme Court. Im not sure the electors are willing to be pilloried in service to Trump though, even if the worst occurs I dont believe its a battle Trump wins in the end. Technically, Michigan can override its popular vote and send republican electors anyways. None of the other states have the same idiotic system that makes that possible, though, so it doesn't matter. The results in Michigan were also pretty definitive. (MI has to have its results certified by a four person panel, 2 GOP 2 Democrats, and if they tie, then the republican legislature decides for them). Also, Trump hasn't made a public appearance since his loss. Kind of weird. There are about as many police as there are national guard. Trump clearly isn't attempting anything resembling a typical coup though, he's simply holding the perceived stability of the system hostage and doesn't need to actually "be president" to burn the system down and claim to be the king of the ash heap. My concern is that he can do that largely unintentionally and without the type of organization you're talking about. Just getting his hundreds of thousands of cop supporters to violently confront anti-Trump protesters (something they're known to do already) can be more than enough to set us on an uncontrollable spiral imo. IMO the concern isn't that Trump is masterminding some legally nuanced coup, it's that he loses control over the people that think that a Biden stole the election/the conflict spirals out of the control of Trump and Biden.
Yes, that's a much more serious concern - I was pretty terrified of it in 2016 too.
If things stay at their current low boil I'm not as worried. I've seen little signs that there is any coordination ongoing, but I'd be afraid to be downtown in Philly for the next few weeks. Regardless, none of what you're speculating about would keep Trump in power. (He's encouraging riots, basically).
On November 12 2020 00:41 JimmiC wrote:
It is also important to take into account that not all police support Trump. Just because the union leadership does, does not mean the rank and file does. Union members regularly vote outside of the union leaderships choices. In these Urban areas where Trump did extremely shitty I wouldn't be surprised if more than 50% of the cops there support Biden. They live and know and family with tons of non cops.
I'd guess Trump has >75% of support from active cops in the country. They don't really live in cities, almost exclusively they live outside of where they patrol.
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You really need only look to the streets to see how fucked up cops are, its not even about tacitly supporting Trump via voting, cops are out there savagely beating protestors, gassing protestors, etc. The stuff that comes out about cops is actually heinous, they've got some serious rot running through their core, and they self select for the worst, articles come out once in a while of a Good Cop type basically being muscled out for not being a huge piece of shit.
That being said, there is no way they do anything more than they're doing now, maybe they ramp up brutality a little, but I don't see them being part of a coup as much as they seem to love hanging out with right wing gravy seal types.
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GA SoS announces preliminary results for Biden and by-hand recount. Will take 2-3 weeks to do this recount.
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EPT
