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On November 08 2020 04:19 JimmiC wrote:Show nested quote +On November 08 2020 03:40 Nevuk wrote:On November 08 2020 03:27 DucK- wrote:
Hi all.
I've got a question and I'd like simple answers for a dummy.
Many are not that convinced over Biden, but still just wanna get Trump out. Given this, what's so bad about Sanders that Biden was chosen over him for this election vs Trump? Basically people were more against Sanders than were for Biden. 1. Older black voters preferred Biden, which kept him in the race. They are moderates and prefer the safest choice, always. 2. All of the other moderates dropped out at once so that Sanders couldn't win (this was unprecedented, some of them dropped out while AHEAD of Biden), while the other progressive in the race stayed in so that the vote for her and Sanders got split. Point 2 is kind of over played. The reality is that Warrens votes actually ended up getting fairly spit between the two. And also there are just way more people that prefer the moderates in the Dem Party. That there was 6 moderates and 2 progressives was a advantage for Bernie as long as it lasted because the moderate larger vote would be split. But it is not some sort of scandal that they dropped out. It would be the minority of the party having control, which if you like Bernie is obviously a positive, but not exactly what you want from the system, the same way people don't want the president losing the popular vote by 20% or something. The reality is that Bernie lost because no enough people support him. He has not found a way to get other demographics then white middle class college educated and young. Whoever takes the torch from him needs to figure that out because if the next person is just equally popular they will also lose in primary. They need to get more progressive votes than moderate ones which right now is not happening, it is more like 2/3 1/3. Which is way better than it was and a great job by Sanders to get it that far. But pretending like there was some sort of conspiracy against him just stops you from from analyzing the actual issue which is he just was not able to get enough support, especially from certain demographics.
Uh, it was bonkers and unprecedented for people to all drop out before super tuesday and endorse the person who was BEHIND them. Never been done before. Bloomberg also explicitly entered the race to damage Sanders' chances.
Sanders had better latino support than Biden. The white college thing was the 2016 Bernie campaign issue, not the 2020 one.
I'm not calling it a conspiracy because it wasn't hidden. It was all done in the open. They said they thought Biden had the best chance to win the race was why they dropped out. I think they were wrong, but it's not like we can know for sure.
4/7, 2/7, 1/7 is a better way to describe the final results of the race. Now, I don't think Bernie could have a won a in 1v1 race against Biden either (though without all the endorsements it would be far closer), but the way the field narrowed was peak politicking and clearly done to prevent Bernie from winning.
I'm different from GH in that I believe that they are being honest that they thought Biden had a better chance, but it's still the same end result - they wanted Bernie to lose the nomination, albeit because they thought Biden stood a better chance and not out of hatred of Bernie.
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On November 08 2020 04:25 WombaT wrote:Show nested quote +On November 08 2020 04:19 JimmiC wrote:On November 08 2020 03:40 Nevuk wrote:On November 08 2020 03:27 DucK- wrote:
Hi all.
I've got a question and I'd like simple answers for a dummy.
Many are not that convinced over Biden, but still just wanna get Trump out. Given this, what's so bad about Sanders that Biden was chosen over him for this election vs Trump? Basically people were more against Sanders than were for Biden. 1. Older black voters preferred Biden, which kept him in the race. They are moderates and prefer the safest choice, always. 2. All of the other moderates dropped out at once so that Sanders couldn't win (this was unprecedented, some of them dropped out while AHEAD of Biden), while the other progressive in the race stayed in so that the vote for her and Sanders got split. Point 2 is kind of over played. The reality is that Warrens votes actually ended up getting fairly spit between the two. And also there are just way more people that prefer the moderates in the Dem Party. That there was 6 moderates and 2 progressives was a advantage for Bernie as long as it lasted because the moderate larger vote would be split. But it is not some sort of scandal that they dropped out. It would be the minority of the party having control, which if you like Bernie is obviously a positive, but not exactly what you want from the system, the same way people don't want the president losing the popular vote by 20% or something. The reality is that Bernie lost because no enough people support him. He has not found a way to get other demographics then white middle class college educated and young. Whoever takes the torch from him needs to figure that out because if the next person is just equally popular they will also lose in primary. They need to get more progressive votes than moderate ones which right now is not happening, it is more like 2/3 1/3. Which is way better than it was and a great job by Sanders to get it that far. But pretending like there was some sort of conspiracy against him just stops you from from analyzing the actual issue which is he just was not able to get enough support, especially from certain demographics. It can both be true that the Democratic party by and large did not want Bernie Sanders to win the nomination and where possible would make moves to make it difficult for him and his campaign, while ultimately he didn't have the votes. By want of a parallel in the UK many people of the left persuasion are pretty pissy about Corbyn's time as Labour leader. Unlike some others I still think he would have lost regardless of his party continually trying to torpedo him, but on principle it was the attempt at doing so that pissed me off.
Yeah, this. It didn't really look like Sanders meaningfully had the numbers this year to win the nomination (he very well might have in 2016) without the field being stacked against him, but it's clear the Democratic leadership was screwing him over. There's a good reason the whole DNC email scandal drew as much righteous outrage as it did.
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United States43987 Posts
On November 08 2020 04:06 LegalLord wrote:Show nested quote +On November 08 2020 04:00 ChristianS wrote:On November 08 2020 03:55 LegalLord wrote:
Congrats on a "media official" Biden win! Certainly an incremental improvement over the previous president. Guess you can put away your notebook of permutations on “delectable electable” for another four years Well, "electable" wasn't the magic word this election, so that's long gone. Good thing too - turns out that even with the coronavirus debacle, he was only very barely elected, so it wouldn't have been the best argument anyways.
He won more votes than any other candidate has ever won by a huge margin. Trump’s red wave is covering up a lot of the attention to just how big Biden’s blue wave was.
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Yes its a convincing victory for biden,he will end up winning the popular vote with over 5 million and 4% as it looks now.
77% of california is in which went to biden 2 to 1. Around 4-5m votes left to count there i guess.
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On November 08 2020 04:32 KwarK wrote:Show nested quote +On November 08 2020 04:06 LegalLord wrote:On November 08 2020 04:00 ChristianS wrote:On November 08 2020 03:55 LegalLord wrote:
Congrats on a "media official" Biden win! Certainly an incremental improvement over the previous president. Guess you can put away your notebook of permutations on “delectable electable” for another four years Well, "electable" wasn't the magic word this election, so that's long gone. Good thing too - turns out that even with the coronavirus debacle, he was only very barely elected, so it wouldn't have been the best argument anyways. He won more votes than any other candidate has ever won by a huge margin. Trump’s red wave is covering up a lot of the attention to just how big Biden’s blue wave was.
On this point :
It was an absurdly good showing for the GOP, and way above expected for Trump, but still a bad showing for him. If not for the college this would be a pretty moot conversation.
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Trump has left his golf course. Hold onto your butts.
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On November 08 2020 04:19 LegalLord wrote:Show nested quote +On November 08 2020 04:12 ChristianS wrote:On November 08 2020 04:06 LegalLord wrote:On November 08 2020 04:00 ChristianS wrote:On November 08 2020 03:55 LegalLord wrote:
Congrats on a "media official" Biden win! Certainly an incremental improvement over the previous president. Guess you can put away your notebook of permutations on “delectable electable” for another four years Well, "electable" wasn't the magic word this election, so that's long gone. Good thing too - turns out that even with the coronavirus debacle, he was only very barely elected, so it wouldn't have been the best argument anyways. Is this... true? It certainly felt like it at points, but if we’d just gotten all the results at once would we be saying this? Obviously we still don’t have all the results anyway, and it’s pretty clear down-ballot dems did pretty bad. But for President specifically, it kinda seems like as big a win as you can get under modern polarized conditions. Trump currently has 214 "media official" electoral votes, and that'll be up to 232 when he's finally given NC and Alaska. At best, that margin will be as good as the narrow victory that Trump won in 2016, which is already one of the narrowest margins in history. A percentage point more favorable for Trump, maybe one or two less major debacles, and the overall result would've been reversed. Damn right that's "barely elected" by any meaningful measure.
EC margin is a weird way to judge closeness, and anyway that was the metric in which Trump’s win looked least close. And again, in modern polarized conditions comparing to historical margins doesn’t make sense. 1984 isn’t possible any more.
We’ll see what the tipping point margin winds up being. Off the top of my head it’ll probably be... idk, WI? That was pretty close. PA will probably be a decent margin by the end, AZ and GA are obviously very close, NV probably not actually very close. There’s math I’m not bothering with because we don’t have final numbers anyway.
But we’re likely to end up with a pretty big popular vote advantage, a decent EC margin, and maybe more importantly, competitive results in a pretty wide range of states, which makes the tipping point margin math less meaningful since the whole country never moves 1 pt left or right lockstep together.
Don’t get me wrong, you and I probably share cynicism about the future of the Dems, both in terms of meaningful policy achievements and in electoral success. But the “barely scraped by” perception seems path-dependent to me. If we do a Great Take Audit of people’s election analysis once we have final results, I think most of the analysis will seem like a function of the order votes were counted.
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On November 08 2020 04:39 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:
Trump has left his golf course. Hold onto your butts.
I hope he lets us know how he did.
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On November 08 2020 04:36 Nevuk wrote:Show nested quote +On November 08 2020 04:32 KwarK wrote:On November 08 2020 04:06 LegalLord wrote:On November 08 2020 04:00 ChristianS wrote:On November 08 2020 03:55 LegalLord wrote:
Congrats on a "media official" Biden win! Certainly an incremental improvement over the previous president. Guess you can put away your notebook of permutations on “delectable electable” for another four years Well, "electable" wasn't the magic word this election, so that's long gone. Good thing too - turns out that even with the coronavirus debacle, he was only very barely elected, so it wouldn't have been the best argument anyways. He won more votes than any other candidate has ever won by a huge margin. Trump’s red wave is covering up a lot of the attention to just how big Biden’s blue wave was. On this point : https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1325154562995613697It was an absurdly good showing for the GOP, and way above expected for Trump, but still a bad showing for him. If not for the college this would be a pretty moot conversation.
I've seen the election described as a referendum on Trump that he lost, but a disappointing week for Democrats. Winning the presidency against an incumbent and likely snatching away Arizona and Georgia while rebuilding the Blue Wall is one hell of an achievement, but hemorrhaging House seats and likely allowing the Senate to slip by their fingers again is a bitter loss.
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We should also stop calling those swing states the Blue Wall imo, lol. I don’t think they’re going to be reliably blue any more, they’re gonna require active attention unless Democrats do some good for the people there which they wont
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United States10402 Posts
On November 08 2020 04:47 Zambrah wrote:
We should also stop calling those swing states the Blue Wall imo, lol. I don’t think they’re going to be reliably blue any more, they’re gonna require active attention unless Democrats do some good for the people there which they wont
Yeah I agree. They definitely are a wall in the fact that they almost always vote with each other because of identical demographics and state layouts (big cities like Milwaukee, Detroit, Philly vs the rural) but they're pure swing states now, no more blue lean anymore.
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I think the one exception is Minnesota. It's much bluer than the others. MI/PA/WI are definitely swing states though.
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On November 08 2020 04:40 ChristianS wrote:Show nested quote +On November 08 2020 04:19 LegalLord wrote:On November 08 2020 04:12 ChristianS wrote:On November 08 2020 04:06 LegalLord wrote:On November 08 2020 04:00 ChristianS wrote:On November 08 2020 03:55 LegalLord wrote:
Congrats on a "media official" Biden win! Certainly an incremental improvement over the previous president. Guess you can put away your notebook of permutations on “delectable electable” for another four years Well, "electable" wasn't the magic word this election, so that's long gone. Good thing too - turns out that even with the coronavirus debacle, he was only very barely elected, so it wouldn't have been the best argument anyways. Is this... true? It certainly felt like it at points, but if we’d just gotten all the results at once would we be saying this? Obviously we still don’t have all the results anyway, and it’s pretty clear down-ballot dems did pretty bad. But for President specifically, it kinda seems like as big a win as you can get under modern polarized conditions. Trump currently has 214 "media official" electoral votes, and that'll be up to 232 when he's finally given NC and Alaska. At best, that margin will be as good as the narrow victory that Trump won in 2016, which is already one of the narrowest margins in history. A percentage point more favorable for Trump, maybe one or two less major debacles, and the overall result would've been reversed. Damn right that's "barely elected" by any meaningful measure. EC margin is a weird way to judge closeness, and anyway that was the metric in which Trump’s win looked least close. And again, in modern polarized conditions comparing to historical margins doesn’t make sense. 1984 isn’t possible any more.
It's the metric that judges who actually wins. Maybe you think some other system should be the one that determines who wins the presidency, such as the popular vote, but it isn't. So even though it gives Trump what looks like an unfair advantage relative to his actual popularity... it's what determines the winner. If you don't win the EC but win by whatever other metric you like, that's little more than a consolation prize.
On November 08 2020 04:40 ChristianS wrote:
We’ll see what the tipping point margin winds up being. Off the top of my head it’ll probably be... idk, WI? That was pretty close. PA will probably be a decent margin by the end, AZ and GA are obviously very close, NV probably not actually very close. There’s math I’m not bothering with because we don’t have final numbers anyway.
But we’re likely to end up with a pretty big popular vote advantage, a decent EC margin, and maybe more importantly, competitive results in a pretty wide range of states, which makes the tipping point margin math less meaningful since the whole country never moves 1 pt left or right lockstep together.
Don’t get me wrong, you and I probably share cynicism about the future of the Dems, both in terms of meaningful policy achievements and in electoral success. But the “barely scraped by” perception seems path-dependent to me. If we do a Great Take Audit of people’s election analysis once we have final results, I think most of the analysis will seem like a function of the order votes were counted.
WI or PA would be the tipping point, judging by current results. All of WI, PA, AZ, and GA are at a <1% margin right now.
Biden has pretty respectable results on popular vote and turnout - high turnout, decent popular vote margin, high number of total popular votes. EC is a mediocre result, down-ballot is about as favorable for Republicans as it possibly could be for a presidential loss. A win is a win, but a narrow one at that by most measures that matter. That's with ~95% of the results in nationally, so it's probably not premature to judge it as much.
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On November 08 2020 04:19 JimmiC wrote:Show nested quote +On November 08 2020 03:40 Nevuk wrote:On November 08 2020 03:27 DucK- wrote:
Hi all.
I've got a question and I'd like simple answers for a dummy.
Many are not that convinced over Biden, but still just wanna get Trump out. Given this, what's so bad about Sanders that Biden was chosen over him for this election vs Trump? Basically people were more against Sanders than were for Biden. 1. Older black voters preferred Biden, which kept him in the race. They are moderates and prefer the safest choice, always. 2. All of the other moderates dropped out at once so that Sanders couldn't win (this was unprecedented, some of them dropped out while AHEAD of Biden), while the other progressive in the race stayed in so that the vote for her and Sanders got split. Point 2 is kind of over played. The reality is that Warrens votes actually ended up getting fairly spit between the two. And also there are just way more people that prefer the moderates in the Dem Party. That there was 6 moderates and 2 progressives was a advantage for Bernie as long as it lasted because the moderate larger vote would be split. But it is not some sort of scandal that they dropped out. It would be the minority of the party having control, which if you like Bernie is obviously a positive, but not exactly what you want from the system, the same way people don't want the president losing the popular vote by 20% or something. The reality is that Bernie lost because no enough people support him. He has not found a way to get other demographics then white middle class college educated and young. Whoever takes the torch from him needs to figure that out because if the next person is just equally popular they will also lose in primary. They need to get more progressive votes than moderate ones which right now is not happening, it is more like 2/3 1/3. Which is way better than it was and a great job by Sanders to get it that far. But pretending like there was some sort of conspiracy against him just stops you from from analyzing the actual issue which is he just was not able to get enough support, especially from certain demographics.
News coverage on Bernie was pretty brutal though. They created a story out of thin air about aggressive Bernie Bros as if that was a serious problem. Buttigieg claimed Iowa without merit and got to parade around the networks as the winner while Bernie's great performance got sidelined. And Biden's campaign was really not doing great, he got carried by Jim Clyburn in South Carolina and suddenly he got days of free round the clock news coverage just before super tuesday due to all the different endorsements from the other moderate dems, while Warren did nothing for Bernie.
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Politico has a pretty nice writeup on the various issues with Trump's campaign and some of the Turmoil with Biden (Biden's was mainly that his campaign really didn't want him to go out publicly much until late in the campaign due to COVID).
Some short snippets. Long, deep dive.
[...]
“Sir, regardless, this is coming. It’s the only thing that could take down your presidency,” Parscale told the president.
Trump snapped.
“This fucking virus,” Trump asked dismissively, according to a person with direct knowledge of the exchange, “what does it have to do with me getting reelected?”
[...]
• Communication between the Trump campaign and Republican National Committee broke down for much of the final stretch, and the two sides clashed over strategy. The RNC thought Trump’s ads were of such low quality that it created its own commercials.
• A pro-Trump super PAC took months longer than expected to materialize, prompting anxiety at the highest levels of the president’s cash-poor campaign. At one point, former top Trump strategist Steve Bannon was in discussions about helping to steer the group, an idea major donors would have rejected. By the time casino mogul Sheldon Adelson stepped forward to fund it, the president had been swamped by pro-Biden ads.
• Trump offered to cut his campaign a check heading into the final week of the race. His advisers told him it wasn’t necessary — the campaign had enough resources. While people close to the president defended the decision, it ensured he would be overwhelmed by Biden on the air as voters headed to the polls.
• Senior campaign and GOP officials vented that Trump’s finance team, led by former Fox TV host and Donald Trump Jr. girlfriend Kimberly Guilfoyle, underperformed and was an HR nightmare. Trump couldn’t compete with Biden’s small-dollar fundraising machine, and some donors were horrified by what they described as Guilfoyle’s lack of professionalism: She frequently joked about her sex life and, at one fundraiser, offered a lap dance to the donor who gave the most money.
[...]
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/11/07/this-f-ing-virus-inside-donald-trumps-2020-undoing-434716
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How is a small margin in 3 states determining the winner not a close victory?
like 100k votes the other way in the right places and Trump would win.
How is that not close?
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On November 08 2020 01:49 Starlightsun wrote:
NO RE DONALD
he can run in 2024
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On November 08 2020 05:10 Gorsameth wrote:
How is a small margin in 3 states determining the winner not a close victory?
like 100k votes the other way in the right places and Trump would win.
How is that not close?
Its a close technical victory, but winning by 4 million is what matters. Its what shows the state of the culture/perspective of the country. At the end of the day, people are what matter.
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EPT
