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Any and all updates regarding the COVID-19 will need a source provided. Please do your part in helping us to keep this thread maintainable and under control.
It is YOUR responsibility to fully read through the sources that you link, and you MUST provide a brief summary explaining what the source is about. Do not expect other people to do the work for you.
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Added a disclaimer on page 662. Many need to post better. |
On February 28 2020 10:08 Manifesto7 wrote:
This thread is a place for you to share the ways the corona virus is affecting your life. This isn't a thread for fear mongering or speculation.
I live in Osaka, Japan. As of February 28th, a few things have changed. Large gatherings like my end-of-year work party have been canceled. Other events like graduations are either being scaled way down, or scrapped altogether. Pro sports are being canceled or played in empty stadiums.
Yesterday the Prime Minister announced that schools would close Monday, extending into the spring break. In Japan, the new school year stars in April so this is essentially a month long spring break. Abe said that businesses would be compensated if their workers had to take time off, but that is only lip service, and nothing will change in Japan's work culture. Nursery schools for the very young will stay open.
I am fortunate that my wife stays home, so she can watch the kids. Some of my friends are in much more difficult situations with elementary school aged kids. I, of course, still have to go to work because the hamster wheel can never stop spinning.
As for supplies, masks are impossible to find anywhere. I have a bit of stock at home but I doubt their effectiveness anyway. I keep a supply of bottled water at home in case of earthquakes and typhoons, and my farming means I always have food, but depending on how things develop over the next week, I might go stock up some more.
The system of tracking people in Japan is pretty good, and my confidence in local government remains high. The next big question is the Olympics, which would be a brutal punch to an already weakening economy in Japan.
I never seen anyone on TL who lives in Osaka. I will actually move there next month!
I'm living in western Germany. So far there has not been much impact around here but in my home town all the people are going crazy and they all buy so many supplies that they go out of stock.
For me personally its just really annoying. I am not really worried about the virus itself but if I would be infected I could be denied entry to Japan or be quarantined or something. I don't really know all that could happen, I just don't want to be infected before I move because it will jeopardize the plan.
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My partner works in a biology lab here and they're currently engaged with COVID-19. Here's a recent update regarding the outbreak in WA:
The team at the @seattleflustudy have sequenced the genome the #COVID19 community case reported yesterday from Snohomish County, WA, and have posted the sequence publicly to http://gisaid.org. There are some enormous implications here. This case, WA2, is on a branch in the evolutionary tree that descends directly from WA1, the first reported case in the USA sampled Jan 19, also from Snohomish County, viewable here:
This strongly suggests that there has been cryptic transmission in Washington State for the past 6 weeks. It's possible that this genetic similarity is a coincidence and these are separate introductions. However, I believe this is highly unlikely. The WA1 case had a variant at site 18060. This variant is only present in 2/59 viruses from China.
I'd assess the p-value for this coincidence at 2/59=0.03 and so is statistically significant. Additionally, these two cases are geographically proximal, both residing in Snohomish County. I believe we're facing an already substantial outbreak in Washington State that was not detected until now due to narrow case definition requiring direct travel to China. We will be working closely with @KCPubHealth and @WADeptHealth to investigate the full extent of the outbreak. We're hoping to update soon with better estimates of the number of infections in Washington State using available data. Thank you to the
@seattleflustudy team, and particularly to @lea_starita, for exceptionally fast turnaround from diagnostic assay at @WADeptHealth to sequenced genome.
An update, because I see people overly speculating on total outbreak size. Our best current expectation is a few hundred current infections. Expect more analyses tomorrow.
One more update: my best guess at a p-value here is 0.03 as above based on shared mutations (still possible this pattern was chance). If we get another sequence or two from additional WA community cases this should clinch the matter one way or another.
Source:
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On March 02 2020 08:08 Chairman Ray wrote:+ Show Spoiler +My partner works in a biology lab here and they're currently engaged with COVID-19. Here's a recent update regarding the outbreak in WA: The team at the @seattleflustudy have sequenced the genome the #COVID19 community case reported yesterday from Snohomish County, WA, and have posted the sequence publicly to http://gisaid.org. There are some enormous implications here. This case, WA2, is on a branch in the evolutionary tree that descends directly from WA1, the first reported case in the USA sampled Jan 19, also from Snohomish County, viewable here: This strongly suggests that there has been cryptic transmission in Washington State for the past 6 weeks. It's possible that this genetic similarity is a coincidence and these are separate introductions. However, I believe this is highly unlikely. The WA1 case had a variant at site 18060. This variant is only present in 2/59 viruses from China. I'd assess the p-value for this coincidence at 2/59=0.03 and so is statistically significant. Additionally, these two cases are geographically proximal, both residing in Snohomish County. I believe we're facing an already substantial outbreak in Washington State that was not detected until now due to narrow case definition requiring direct travel to China. We will be working closely with @KCPubHealth and @WADeptHealth to investigate the full extent of the outbreak. We're hoping to update soon with better estimates of the number of infections in Washington State using available data. Thank you to the @seattleflustudy team, and particularly to @lea_starita, for exceptionally fast turnaround from diagnostic assay at @WADeptHealth to sequenced genome. An update, because I see people overly speculating on total outbreak size. Our best current expectation is a few hundred current infections. Expect more analyses tomorrow. One more update: my best guess at a p-value here is 0.03 as above based on shared mutations (still possible this pattern was chance). If we get another sequence or two from additional WA community cases this should clinch the matter one way or another. Source: https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1233970271318503426
I'm not sure I really understood anything in this post 
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United States42673 Posts
On March 02 2020 08:18 Sbrubbles wrote:Show nested quote +On March 02 2020 08:08 Chairman Ray wrote:+ Show Spoiler +My partner works in a biology lab here and they're currently engaged with COVID-19. Here's a recent update regarding the outbreak in WA: The team at the @seattleflustudy have sequenced the genome the #COVID19 community case reported yesterday from Snohomish County, WA, and have posted the sequence publicly to http://gisaid.org. There are some enormous implications here. This case, WA2, is on a branch in the evolutionary tree that descends directly from WA1, the first reported case in the USA sampled Jan 19, also from Snohomish County, viewable here: This strongly suggests that there has been cryptic transmission in Washington State for the past 6 weeks. It's possible that this genetic similarity is a coincidence and these are separate introductions. However, I believe this is highly unlikely. The WA1 case had a variant at site 18060. This variant is only present in 2/59 viruses from China. I'd assess the p-value for this coincidence at 2/59=0.03 and so is statistically significant. Additionally, these two cases are geographically proximal, both residing in Snohomish County. I believe we're facing an already substantial outbreak in Washington State that was not detected until now due to narrow case definition requiring direct travel to China. We will be working closely with @KCPubHealth and @WADeptHealth to investigate the full extent of the outbreak. We're hoping to update soon with better estimates of the number of infections in Washington State using available data. Thank you to the @seattleflustudy team, and particularly to @lea_starita, for exceptionally fast turnaround from diagnostic assay at @WADeptHealth to sequenced genome. An update, because I see people overly speculating on total outbreak size. Our best current expectation is a few hundred current infections. Expect more analyses tomorrow. One more update: my best guess at a p-value here is 0.03 as above based on shared mutations (still possible this pattern was chance). If we get another sequence or two from additional WA community cases this should clinch the matter one way or another. Source: https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1233970271318503426 I'm not sure I really understood anything in this post
Two cases in the US aren’t brothers with a Chinese daddy, they’re father and son. We can tell because son looks like father. That means that even if we assume that the father has a Chinese daddy, son was born here.
It means we’re not dealing with FOB Coronavirus, it’s been here longer than we thought, started families, discreetly bought up some land in the Pacific Northwest, and so forth.
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Basically, the second case in washington looks like it is descended from the first case in washington.
That suggests the virus is spreading within WA itself, rather than coming in on planes and being successfully contained.
EDIT: too slow
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On March 02 2020 08:34 KwarK wrote:Show nested quote +On March 02 2020 08:18 Sbrubbles wrote:On March 02 2020 08:08 Chairman Ray wrote:+ Show Spoiler +My partner works in a biology lab here and they're currently engaged with COVID-19. Here's a recent update regarding the outbreak in WA: The team at the @seattleflustudy have sequenced the genome the #COVID19 community case reported yesterday from Snohomish County, WA, and have posted the sequence publicly to http://gisaid.org. There are some enormous implications here. This case, WA2, is on a branch in the evolutionary tree that descends directly from WA1, the first reported case in the USA sampled Jan 19, also from Snohomish County, viewable here: This strongly suggests that there has been cryptic transmission in Washington State for the past 6 weeks. It's possible that this genetic similarity is a coincidence and these are separate introductions. However, I believe this is highly unlikely. The WA1 case had a variant at site 18060. This variant is only present in 2/59 viruses from China. I'd assess the p-value for this coincidence at 2/59=0.03 and so is statistically significant. Additionally, these two cases are geographically proximal, both residing in Snohomish County. I believe we're facing an already substantial outbreak in Washington State that was not detected until now due to narrow case definition requiring direct travel to China. We will be working closely with @KCPubHealth and @WADeptHealth to investigate the full extent of the outbreak. We're hoping to update soon with better estimates of the number of infections in Washington State using available data. Thank you to the @seattleflustudy team, and particularly to @lea_starita, for exceptionally fast turnaround from diagnostic assay at @WADeptHealth to sequenced genome. An update, because I see people overly speculating on total outbreak size. Our best current expectation is a few hundred current infections. Expect more analyses tomorrow. One more update: my best guess at a p-value here is 0.03 as above based on shared mutations (still possible this pattern was chance). If we get another sequence or two from additional WA community cases this should clinch the matter one way or another. Source: https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1233970271318503426 I'm not sure I really understood anything in this post Two cases in the US aren’t brothers with a Chinese daddy, they’re father and son. We can tell because son looks like father. That means that even if we assume that the father has a Chinese daddy, son was born here. It means we’re not dealing with FOB Coronavirus, it’s been here longer than we thought, started families, discreetly bought up some land in the Pacific Northwest, and so forth.
Ah ok, so presumably the virus arrived much earlier than people thought, but local doctors have been misdiagnosing because they weren't really looking for it. Now they need to reevaluate the true spread of the infection.
Edit: @Belisaur: Ok I wasn't aware of the importance of first generation vs second generation infection.
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WA1 was dated Jan 19th. That is the first case as far as we know.
This just means WA1 wasn't contained and may have been spreading since then.
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On March 02 2020 08:49 Belisarius wrote:
WA1 was dated Jan 19th. That is the first case as far as we know.
This just means WA1 wasn't contained and may have been spreading since then.
Ok, I think I get it now, thanks.
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What do disposable face masks normally go for when there isn't the threat of coronavirus spreading? Quick search of Amazon shows they're selling for about a dollar apiece and shipping times are of course delayed.
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On March 02 2020 09:19 [UoN]Sentinel wrote:
What do disposable face masks normally go for when there isn't the threat of coronavirus spreading? Quick search of Amazon shows they're selling for about a dollar apiece and shipping times are of course delayed.
I bought masks before the outbreak began and here's what I paid:
Disposable surgical face mask (125 ct) - $8.99
3M Particulate Filter Mask N95 (20 ct) - $12.50
3M Half-face respirator assembly with 2091 P100 filters - $11.99
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Yeah upon further review it looks like those orders I'm seeing are from China. If and when they get reporterd they'll probably just come back under a different name and do the same thing.
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i run multiple restaurant businesses and sales has definitely suffered this year. starting with the bushfires, to the floods and now the virus, seems like australia just cant catch a breath. our economy sucks shit anyway and all these things are just piling on top so sad days for retail.
my office also happens to be in the suburb which the first confirmed case of coronavirus in australia was found, so it was a ghost town here for a while. almost every retailer in the streets here were crying for help because sales tanked so hard for them. had a few bakeries that straight up sold everything at discounted prices every day because their daily stock just wouldnt get sold
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I’ve definitely been hearing a lot of worries at work in Southern California. We do a lot of business with Chinese raw materials suppliers, and are expecting much less volume. The 6 week cryptic transmission mentioned earlier in this thread is also worrying. I’m checking in with people I know from Iran and their families, because news reports suggest their government downplayed impact for the election and to save face ... and that it’s very widespread already.
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Seoul, went ahead and got a month delay on my swimming membership. Really annoying because I feel like I was really getting into a good rhythm with it and now I have to stop it abruptly. Work isn't too bad so far but if it goes on for 2 or 3 months like this we'll probably be in trouble.
Aside from the economy though, I'm feeling pretty good about the situation in Korea. The # of cases are spiking but the healthcare system here is generally very good and accessible, I think Korea will come out of this looking relatively good. I live alone and have no family here so I'm not really at risk of spreading it to my parents or anything.
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What effect has this had on me personally?
Devastating.
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On March 02 2020 06:33 GornWood wrote:Show nested quote +On February 28 2020 10:08 Manifesto7 wrote:
This thread is a place for you to share the ways the corona virus is affecting your life. This isn't a thread for fear mongering or speculation.
I live in Osaka, Japan. As of February 28th, a few things have changed. Large gatherings like my end-of-year work party have been canceled. Other events like graduations are either being scaled way down, or scrapped altogether. Pro sports are being canceled or played in empty stadiums.
Yesterday the Prime Minister announced that schools would close Monday, extending into the spring break. In Japan, the new school year stars in April so this is essentially a month long spring break. Abe said that businesses would be compensated if their workers had to take time off, but that is only lip service, and nothing will change in Japan's work culture. Nursery schools for the very young will stay open.
I am fortunate that my wife stays home, so she can watch the kids. Some of my friends are in much more difficult situations with elementary school aged kids. I, of course, still have to go to work because the hamster wheel can never stop spinning.
As for supplies, masks are impossible to find anywhere. I have a bit of stock at home but I doubt their effectiveness anyway. I keep a supply of bottled water at home in case of earthquakes and typhoons, and my farming means I always have food, but depending on how things develop over the next week, I might go stock up some more.
The system of tracking people in Japan is pretty good, and my confidence in local government remains high. The next big question is the Olympics, which would be a brutal punch to an already weakening economy in Japan.
I never seen anyone on TL who lives in Osaka. I will actually move there next month! I'm living in western Germany. So far there has not been much impact around here but in my home town all the people are going crazy and they all buy so many supplies that they go out of stock. For me personally its just really annoying. I am not really worried about the virus itself but if I would be infected I could be denied entry to Japan or be quarantined or something. I don't really know all that could happen, I just don't want to be infected before I move because it will jeopardize the plan.
If possible move before and quarantine yourself upon arrival? We have a new co-worker from one of the most impacted regions and that person arrived early for quarantine prior to first work day. Might not be required in your case though.
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United States42673 Posts
On March 02 2020 23:31 Jockmcplop wrote:What effect has this had on me personally? Devastating.
This is the kind of common sense precaution that has been long overdue.
Edit: I didn’t know this was part of a wider story as I’ve been out of the U.K. for a while. I thought it was just a general public safety warning not to touch Peter Andre because we don’t know where he’s been.
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Portland, Oregon here.
Just had a baby, and the hospital ward was placed in halfway- reverse-quarantine over the weekend. Only mom and I are allowed to see him, and nobody gets in without a temperature taken.
Got a panicked phone call from mother-in-law when she saw on the news that the Oregon case was at a hospital in town. Of course it was a different hospital. Not sure what she thought we were supposed to do.... flee the most sanitary place in town with a newborn?
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On March 03 2020 04:38 KwarK wrote:Show nested quote +On March 02 2020 23:31 Jockmcplop wrote:What effect has this had on me personally? Devastating. This is the kind of common sense precaution that has been long overdue.
Didn't know who he was. Googled him. Entire first page is people raging at him for the signs, and him being "mortified" and denying it happened.
This is why we're doomed, ladies and gentlemen.
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People want to take selfies with Peter Andre? What is this? The 90s?
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EPT![[image loading]](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ER_xjupUUAMJV5K?format=jpg&name=small)
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