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On August 11 2021 02:22 teeel141 wrote:
I linked that article mainly because you said if a vaccinated person gets covid its just like the flu. But in the article Eric Topol says: "What I’m hearing — and I’ve been helping with a bunch of patients — is that people who are breaking through are getting very sick. They’re getting Regeneron antibodies"
And also he talks about death to cases ratio being really bad, which either means cases are way way undercounted, or that delta is way worse for unvaccinated than regural covid or that vaccines arent that effective against delta.
There's a few things:
1) Cases are way way undercounted for sure, at least in Oregon
2) Delta is way worse for unvaccinated people than regular covid
3) Vaccines are less effective against delta than the other covid
4) Vaccines look a lot worse than they should right now. This is because delta variant is hilariously uniquely contagious and lives in REALLY high concentrations.
5) We are truly lucky as a species that delta isn't what we started with. The data around delta is staggering. If we started with it, easily at least 5x the deaths we currently have
TLDR: Delta is CRAZY INSANE. It makes the extremely good vaccines look worse than they are.
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If we had Delta to start with, we'd probably have been completely burned out in most areas of the world. It's just too infectious. Even the super harsh lockdowns we had worldwide around March last year wouldn't have stopped it in most cases. It's the most infectious respiratory disease on record, and the 4th most infectious disease behind Measles, Chickenpox and Mumps.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_reproduction_number#Effective_reproduction_number
We've managed to eradicate the three above covid on the list in large part, but it requires full, mandatory vaccinations for everyone. Being vaccinated against it if at all medically possible, with zero exemptions for non-medical reasons is the baseline for eradicating it from society. Anything short of that is probably not enough.
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On August 11 2021 07:38 Lmui wrote:If we had Delta to start with, we'd probably have been completely burned out in most areas of the world. It's just too infectious. Even the super harsh lockdowns we had worldwide around March last year wouldn't have stopped it in most cases. It's the most infectious respiratory disease on record, and the 4th most infectious disease behind Measles, Chickenpox and Mumps. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_reproduction_number#Effective_reproduction_numberWe've managed to eradicate the three above covid on the list in large part, but it requires full, mandatory vaccinations for everyone. Being vaccinated against it if at all medically possible, with zero exemptions for non-medical reasons is the baseline for eradicating it from society. Anything short of that is probably not enough.
Yeah I honestly expect this to mostly be over in 2 weeks’ish because I think everyone will have been exposed by then
Edit: as Lmui touched on above, delta is not normal. This is some really unique shit from a scientific perspective. This is essentially “an abnormally insane pandemic”.
In terms of pandemic circumstances, respiratory is always worst case scenario. For it to be this infectious and require this much hospitalization for unvaccinated is just terrible. The incubation period also makes it terrible. Everything sucks.
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On August 11 2021 09:27 JimmiC wrote:
I thought I read they expect it to be into late September or early Oct before it slows down in the US south. Now maybe that's changed because vaccination rates are rising again.
I think there are some core assumptions regarding vaccine effectiveness and mask effectiveness that are simply not as true with delta. There are too many case studies with entire groups getting infected. Looking at Oregon's numbers, we are on the verge of a catastrophic rise. I think the numbers being predicted so far is wildly less than will actually happen. Right now it looks like hospitals in Florida and Texas will be full soon while cases are rising way faster than previously.
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Hawaii local government putting social gathering restrictions in place but letting tourists in at an all time high.
I fucking hate it here.
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On August 11 2021 10:38 Emnjay808 wrote:
Hawaii local government putting social gathering restrictions in place but letting tourists in at an all time high.
I fucking hate it here.
My friend lives there and the way he describes it, you have the luxury of hating it. Spend some time back here and you'll be like "lol I forgot about this".
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On August 11 2021 07:38 Lmui wrote:If we had Delta to start with, we'd probably have been completely burned out in most areas of the world. It's just too infectious. Even the super harsh lockdowns we had worldwide around March last year wouldn't have stopped it in most cases. It's the most infectious respiratory disease on record, and the 4th most infectious disease behind Measles, Chickenpox and Mumps. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_reproduction_number#Effective_reproduction_numberWe've managed to eradicate the three above covid on the list in large part, but it requires full, mandatory vaccinations for everyone. Being vaccinated against it if at all medically possible, with zero exemptions for non-medical reasons is the baseline for eradicating it from society. Anything short of that is probably not enough.
I honestly think the only way you could eradicate covid is if you went full China. Testing very large populations at the same time and forced isolation for infected or those who refuse to get tested (probably not even legal in most places and would get very ugly). And obviously would also require very strict border controls. And this wouldnt go away in a year either.
Not saying this is a good idea at all, just that its the only thing that would actually end this.
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On August 11 2021 16:05 teeel141 wrote:Show nested quote +On August 11 2021 07:38 Lmui wrote:If we had Delta to start with, we'd probably have been completely burned out in most areas of the world. It's just too infectious. Even the super harsh lockdowns we had worldwide around March last year wouldn't have stopped it in most cases. It's the most infectious respiratory disease on record, and the 4th most infectious disease behind Measles, Chickenpox and Mumps. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_reproduction_number#Effective_reproduction_numberWe've managed to eradicate the three above covid on the list in large part, but it requires full, mandatory vaccinations for everyone. Being vaccinated against it if at all medically possible, with zero exemptions for non-medical reasons is the baseline for eradicating it from society. Anything short of that is probably not enough. https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/1425086490002997248I honestly think the only way you could eradicate covid is if you went full China. Testing very large populations at the same time and forced isolation for infected or those who refuse to get tested (probably not even legal in most places and would get very ugly). And obviously would also require very strict border controls. And this wouldnt go away in a year either. Not saying this is a good idea at all, just that its the only thing that would actually end this.
I'm still holding on to the belief that once we can get approval for kids, it is possible to hit herd immunity through vaccinations and acquired immunity. Even if it can spread among vaccinated individuals, it might still be enough since there's the multilayer effect of having a higher threshold for infection, lower illness duration and severity. Spread from vaccinated to vaccinated is a bit harder to quantify simply because it occurs a lot less than all the other cases.
Covid has a number of animal vectors(very zoonotic), so most likely it is impossible to completely eradicate at this point regardless of measures short of nuking the Earth. Seen reports on deer, mice, cats and dogs etc. Seems like almost every mammal can catch it.
Rough math in my region (almost 100% delta at this point) has R0 at 6-7.5(Rt=1.9, ~70-75% of people fully vaccinated over that time period), so ~85-90% vaccination rate is barely enough. That being said, Delta burns like wildfire through areas with low vaccination rates, so we might hit herd immunity that way in a couple months in combination with ever increasing vaccination numbers.
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On August 11 2021 16:05 teeel141 wrote:Show nested quote +On August 11 2021 07:38 Lmui wrote:If we had Delta to start with, we'd probably have been completely burned out in most areas of the world. It's just too infectious. Even the super harsh lockdowns we had worldwide around March last year wouldn't have stopped it in most cases. It's the most infectious respiratory disease on record, and the 4th most infectious disease behind Measles, Chickenpox and Mumps. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_reproduction_number#Effective_reproduction_numberWe've managed to eradicate the three above covid on the list in large part, but it requires full, mandatory vaccinations for everyone. Being vaccinated against it if at all medically possible, with zero exemptions for non-medical reasons is the baseline for eradicating it from society. Anything short of that is probably not enough. https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/1425086490002997248I honestly think the only way you could eradicate covid is if you went full China. Testing very large populations at the same time and forced isolation for infected or those who refuse to get tested (probably not even legal in most places and would get very ugly). And obviously would also require very strict border controls. And this wouldnt go away in a year either. Not saying this is a good idea at all, just that its the only thing that would actually end this.
There's a few things that people fundamentally misunderstand about infection.
1: We do not get to decide the end result after vaccination. If covid vaccines changed the death rate from 90% to 40%, we would consider that an amazing result. We don't get to design how effective the vaccine will end up being against all variants.
2: Infected vaccinated people have extremely improved outcomes over unvaccinated. It is possible for people to be getting sick and for it to be going way better than it would be otherwise. Remember how India had giant trenches in the ground for burning and disposing of bodies? That's what we'd be looking like if we were India.
3: Delta represents legitimately bad luck for us as a species. This could have been not nearly as bad, but here we are. Its like how in DBZ, Goku is about to lose, but then he gets a new transformation. We were totally on track to victory and all the data indicated we'd be doing victory laps in ~August. Delta variant is simply a total beast.
4: Our luck has been bad and also could be significantly worse. The example I always bring up is airborne HIV. We do not have any good solutions right now to HIV vaccines. We have some great things that make a giant difference, but we are not able to actually completely eliminate HIV as an infection in many cases. We are lucky that HIV is a very fragile virus and that it is hard to infect people through blood. If it were not so fragile, and it was airborne, it would be totally game over for humanity. The fact that we haven't encountered something like "airborne HIV" is purely through drawing the right cards.
5: In the realm of epidemiology, the only way you prevent (4) from happening is reducing infections as much as you can, globally. Every time a virus reproduces, that is an opportunity for some awful mutation to gain traction. We can't choose which evolutionary pathways a virus decides to take. All we can do is make as few mutations occur and hope for the best. Airborne HIV could become a thing tomorrow. After covid is done, it could be airborne HIV. We have nothing preventing that from happening.
Vaccines are an absolute hero right now and it is chilling to think what the US would look like right not without vaccines. And it is also a stark reminder that our ability to thwart viruses is still infantile. We have a long way to go. We are not safe against pandemics at all as a species and its creepy as hell.
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On August 11 2021 23:49 Mohdoo wrote:Show nested quote +On August 11 2021 16:05 teeel141 wrote:On August 11 2021 07:38 Lmui wrote:If we had Delta to start with, we'd probably have been completely burned out in most areas of the world. It's just too infectious. Even the super harsh lockdowns we had worldwide around March last year wouldn't have stopped it in most cases. It's the most infectious respiratory disease on record, and the 4th most infectious disease behind Measles, Chickenpox and Mumps. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_reproduction_number#Effective_reproduction_numberWe've managed to eradicate the three above covid on the list in large part, but it requires full, mandatory vaccinations for everyone. Being vaccinated against it if at all medically possible, with zero exemptions for non-medical reasons is the baseline for eradicating it from society. Anything short of that is probably not enough. https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/1425086490002997248I honestly think the only way you could eradicate covid is if you went full China. Testing very large populations at the same time and forced isolation for infected or those who refuse to get tested (probably not even legal in most places and would get very ugly). And obviously would also require very strict border controls. And this wouldnt go away in a year either. Not saying this is a good idea at all, just that its the only thing that would actually end this. There's a few things that people fundamentally misunderstand about infection. 1: We do not get to decide the end result after vaccination. If covid vaccines changed the death rate from 90% to 40%, we would consider that an amazing result. We don't get to design how effective the vaccine will end up being against all variants. 2: Infected vaccinated people have extremely improved outcomes over unvaccinated. It is possible for people to be getting sick and for it to be going way better than it would be otherwise. Remember how India had giant trenches in the ground for burning and disposing of bodies? That's what we'd be looking like if we were India. 3: Delta represents legitimately bad luck for us as a species. This could have been not nearly as bad, but here we are. Its like how in DBZ, Goku is about to lose, but then he gets a new transformation. We were totally on track to victory and all the data indicated we'd be doing victory laps in ~August. Delta variant is simply a total beast. 4: Our luck has been bad and also could be significantly worse. The example I always bring up is airborne HIV. We do not have any good solutions right now to HIV vaccines. We have some great things that make a giant difference, but we are not able to actually completely eliminate HIV as an infection in many cases. We are lucky that HIV is a very fragile virus and that it is hard to infect people through blood. If it were not so fragile, and it was airborne, it would be totally game over for humanity. The fact that we haven't encountered something like "airborne HIV" is purely through drawing the right cards. 5: In the realm of epidemiology, the only way you prevent (4) from happening is reducing infections as much as you can, globally. Every time a virus reproduces, that is an opportunity for some awful mutation to gain traction. We can't choose which evolutionary pathways a virus decides to take. All we can do is make as few mutations occur and hope for the best. Airborne HIV could become a thing tomorrow. After covid is done, it could be airborne HIV. We have nothing preventing that from happening. Vaccines are an absolute hero right now and it is chilling to think what the US would look like right not without vaccines. And it is also a stark reminder that our ability to thwart viruses is still infantile. We have a long way to go. We are not safe against pandemics at all as a species and its creepy as hell.
Your analogy to airborne HIV isn't entirely fair. It's very possible that HIV's resistance to vaccines is partially only possible due to its fragility. It is fragile and therefore highly susceptible to mutations and other changes, which in turn escape the immune system (which is further weekend by HIV vectoring in on attacking exactly that).
Secondly, airborne HIV would have to come from somewhere, and evolution is no slouch. It's entirely possible all kinds of things as nasty as your hypothetical airborne HIV did, or does, exist, but everybody who survived has an evolved immune system capable of mitigating the worst if it.
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On August 12 2021 06:59 Acrofales wrote:Show nested quote +On August 11 2021 23:49 Mohdoo wrote:On August 11 2021 16:05 teeel141 wrote:On August 11 2021 07:38 Lmui wrote:If we had Delta to start with, we'd probably have been completely burned out in most areas of the world. It's just too infectious. Even the super harsh lockdowns we had worldwide around March last year wouldn't have stopped it in most cases. It's the most infectious respiratory disease on record, and the 4th most infectious disease behind Measles, Chickenpox and Mumps. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_reproduction_number#Effective_reproduction_numberWe've managed to eradicate the three above covid on the list in large part, but it requires full, mandatory vaccinations for everyone. Being vaccinated against it if at all medically possible, with zero exemptions for non-medical reasons is the baseline for eradicating it from society. Anything short of that is probably not enough. https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/1425086490002997248I honestly think the only way you could eradicate covid is if you went full China. Testing very large populations at the same time and forced isolation for infected or those who refuse to get tested (probably not even legal in most places and would get very ugly). And obviously would also require very strict border controls. And this wouldnt go away in a year either. Not saying this is a good idea at all, just that its the only thing that would actually end this. There's a few things that people fundamentally misunderstand about infection. 1: We do not get to decide the end result after vaccination. If covid vaccines changed the death rate from 90% to 40%, we would consider that an amazing result. We don't get to design how effective the vaccine will end up being against all variants. 2: Infected vaccinated people have extremely improved outcomes over unvaccinated. It is possible for people to be getting sick and for it to be going way better than it would be otherwise. Remember how India had giant trenches in the ground for burning and disposing of bodies? That's what we'd be looking like if we were India. 3: Delta represents legitimately bad luck for us as a species. This could have been not nearly as bad, but here we are. Its like how in DBZ, Goku is about to lose, but then he gets a new transformation. We were totally on track to victory and all the data indicated we'd be doing victory laps in ~August. Delta variant is simply a total beast. 4: Our luck has been bad and also could be significantly worse. The example I always bring up is airborne HIV. We do not have any good solutions right now to HIV vaccines. We have some great things that make a giant difference, but we are not able to actually completely eliminate HIV as an infection in many cases. We are lucky that HIV is a very fragile virus and that it is hard to infect people through blood. If it were not so fragile, and it was airborne, it would be totally game over for humanity. The fact that we haven't encountered something like "airborne HIV" is purely through drawing the right cards. 5: In the realm of epidemiology, the only way you prevent (4) from happening is reducing infections as much as you can, globally. Every time a virus reproduces, that is an opportunity for some awful mutation to gain traction. We can't choose which evolutionary pathways a virus decides to take. All we can do is make as few mutations occur and hope for the best. Airborne HIV could become a thing tomorrow. After covid is done, it could be airborne HIV. We have nothing preventing that from happening. Vaccines are an absolute hero right now and it is chilling to think what the US would look like right not without vaccines. And it is also a stark reminder that our ability to thwart viruses is still infantile. We have a long way to go. We are not safe against pandemics at all as a species and its creepy as hell. Your analogy to airborne HIV isn't entirely fair. It's very possible that HIV's resistance to vaccines is partially only possible due to its fragility. It is fragile and therefore highly susceptible to mutations and other changes, which in turn escape the immune system (which is further weekend by HIV vectoring in on attacking exactly that). Secondly, airborne HIV would have to come from somewhere, and evolution is no slouch. It's entirely possible all kinds of things as nasty as your hypothetical airborne HIV did, or does, exist, but everybody who survived has an evolved immune system capable of mitigating the worst if it.
That isn't why HIV is difficult to immunize against. HIV hides in weird places in the body and the mechanisms of killing things in weird places is fundamentally challenging. I am greatly paraphrasing here. My wife used to work on HIV vaccine research so I've been kinda surrounded with this info.
Regarding your second point, you're right, lots of forms of airborne HIV may have already existed and had other flaws that prevent them from being viable. It can still happen later. I'm just trying to illustrate the following point:
We don't get to decide how bad of things happen. A meteor could wipe the planet out next week. We don't have some sort of guiding light making sure we as a species only encounter "reasonable" problems such that our lives continue as normal. We may at some point have a pandemic such that leaving your house is a terrible risk.
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On August 11 2021 17:57 Amui wrote:Show nested quote +On August 11 2021 16:05 teeel141 wrote:On August 11 2021 07:38 Lmui wrote:If we had Delta to start with, we'd probably have been completely burned out in most areas of the world. It's just too infectious. Even the super harsh lockdowns we had worldwide around March last year wouldn't have stopped it in most cases. It's the most infectious respiratory disease on record, and the 4th most infectious disease behind Measles, Chickenpox and Mumps. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_reproduction_number#Effective_reproduction_numberWe've managed to eradicate the three above covid on the list in large part, but it requires full, mandatory vaccinations for everyone. Being vaccinated against it if at all medically possible, with zero exemptions for non-medical reasons is the baseline for eradicating it from society. Anything short of that is probably not enough. https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/1425086490002997248I honestly think the only way you could eradicate covid is if you went full China. Testing very large populations at the same time and forced isolation for infected or those who refuse to get tested (probably not even legal in most places and would get very ugly). And obviously would also require very strict border controls. And this wouldnt go away in a year either. Not saying this is a good idea at all, just that its the only thing that would actually end this. I'm still holding on to the belief that once we can get approval for kids, it is possible to hit herd immunity through vaccinations and acquired immunity.
In the United States, I don't think it's possible to reach herd immunity, even with kids getting vaccines, since in nearly every state, the parents need to give permission. The unvaccinated parents won't allow their children to get vaccinated, and even some vaccinated parents will worry about letting their still-developing kids get the shots.
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On August 12 2021 11:57 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:Show nested quote +On August 11 2021 17:57 Amui wrote:On August 11 2021 16:05 teeel141 wrote:On August 11 2021 07:38 Lmui wrote:If we had Delta to start with, we'd probably have been completely burned out in most areas of the world. It's just too infectious. Even the super harsh lockdowns we had worldwide around March last year wouldn't have stopped it in most cases. It's the most infectious respiratory disease on record, and the 4th most infectious disease behind Measles, Chickenpox and Mumps. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_reproduction_number#Effective_reproduction_numberWe've managed to eradicate the three above covid on the list in large part, but it requires full, mandatory vaccinations for everyone. Being vaccinated against it if at all medically possible, with zero exemptions for non-medical reasons is the baseline for eradicating it from society. Anything short of that is probably not enough. https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/1425086490002997248I honestly think the only way you could eradicate covid is if you went full China. Testing very large populations at the same time and forced isolation for infected or those who refuse to get tested (probably not even legal in most places and would get very ugly). And obviously would also require very strict border controls. And this wouldnt go away in a year either. Not saying this is a good idea at all, just that its the only thing that would actually end this. I'm still holding on to the belief that once we can get approval for kids, it is possible to hit herd immunity through vaccinations and acquired immunity. In the United States, I don't think it's possible to reach herd immunity, even with kids getting vaccines, since in nearly every state, the parents need to give permission. The unvaccinated parents won't allow their children to get vaccinated, and even some vaccinated parents will worry about letting their still-developing kids get the shots.
My friend knows someone who is anti-vax and can't go on a cruise now. They were gonna just get the vax so they can go on the cruise, but when they realized their kid would also need to be vaccinated, she said "no way in hell"
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On August 12 2021 14:59 Mohdoo wrote:Show nested quote +On August 12 2021 11:57 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On August 11 2021 17:57 Amui wrote:On August 11 2021 16:05 teeel141 wrote:On August 11 2021 07:38 Lmui wrote:If we had Delta to start with, we'd probably have been completely burned out in most areas of the world. It's just too infectious. Even the super harsh lockdowns we had worldwide around March last year wouldn't have stopped it in most cases. It's the most infectious respiratory disease on record, and the 4th most infectious disease behind Measles, Chickenpox and Mumps. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_reproduction_number#Effective_reproduction_numberWe've managed to eradicate the three above covid on the list in large part, but it requires full, mandatory vaccinations for everyone. Being vaccinated against it if at all medically possible, with zero exemptions for non-medical reasons is the baseline for eradicating it from society. Anything short of that is probably not enough. https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/1425086490002997248I honestly think the only way you could eradicate covid is if you went full China. Testing very large populations at the same time and forced isolation for infected or those who refuse to get tested (probably not even legal in most places and would get very ugly). And obviously would also require very strict border controls. And this wouldnt go away in a year either. Not saying this is a good idea at all, just that its the only thing that would actually end this. I'm still holding on to the belief that once we can get approval for kids, it is possible to hit herd immunity through vaccinations and acquired immunity. In the United States, I don't think it's possible to reach herd immunity, even with kids getting vaccines, since in nearly every state, the parents need to give permission. The unvaccinated parents won't allow their children to get vaccinated, and even some vaccinated parents will worry about letting their still-developing kids get the shots. My friend knows someone who is anti-vax and can't go on a cruise now. They were gonna just get the vax so they can go on the cruise, but when they realized their kid would also need to be vaccinated, she said "no way in hell"
Damn. Tell your friend to leave the kid behind with a (vaccinated) babysitter, so that your friend can go get vaccinated and enjoy her cruise without the kid! I'm sure your friend could use a little relaxation time!
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On August 12 2021 23:26 JimmiC wrote:
It is amazing how many people become much less anti vax when it means an inconvenience to themselves to not be.
Agreed, and that's exactly why I'm hoping that being vaccinated becomes a prerequisite for a lot of activities and luxuries, and I hope that covid vaccines eventually become rolled into the set of vaccines that all public school children already receive.
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I think it is utter bullshit!
Seriously: Make covid-vaccination mandatory and be done with it! This is all just stupid "saving face" because basically all the governments said, that there will be no forced vaccination! This IS forced vaccination! It will promote more hate and, yes, there will be a lot of violence! Mark my words!
Also I asked this already, so I quote myself:
On August 02 2021 23:11 Geisterkarle wrote:
What I mean: I'm getting my second shot in a few weeks. Am I good? And I mean good "forever"? Or in half a year they go "sorry, you need a third shot, or no theaters for you!" ... and a year later "fourth time! or no theaters!" and so on and so on! Where does it end? Does it end? Would you ok with such a thing? Because I'm not! So, if people are telling governments, that it is not ok _now_ they are absolutely correct in doing so!
Please answer me that! When would you be fed up with it?
If we read something like that:
that is not a strange question!
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You can't be sure to ever be good. With how light many people take the dangers of covid, it's entirely possible we'll need a different shot next time because vaccines aren't working well enough anymore due to mutations becoming resistent to vaccines. But yes, once they know when everyone needs their next shots you'll get another one, just like with the flu vaccines.
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EPT
