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On September 22 2020 20:49 Sbrubbles wrote:Show nested quote +On September 22 2020 19:20 Longshank wrote:On September 22 2020 07:11 LegalLord wrote:On September 22 2020 05:52 Elroi wrote:
Personally I am very happy with the way Sweden has handled this pandemic (and I say that as someone who dislikes a lot about our current government). We have had no lockdown and very few compulsory measures that we could easily continue to implement for a very long time. Now it looks like the pandemic is all but over here because of the high level of immunity in the population (there are almost no new cases at all despite almost everything being back to normal). Herd immunity is a tired old claim oft-repeated, but seldom justified. Sweden certainly did manage to finally handle its first wave, after an infection & death rate far worse than its geographically similar neighbors and one on par with its far more vulnerable European mainland counterparts, so that's something. It didn't end up being the poster child of colossal failure, only a moderate one, so that's good. But herd immunity? More than a little dubious, that assertion is. Herd immunity isn't a binary thing. If a portion of the population is immune it reduces the overall spread. The bigger the portion the larger the reduction. The infection evidently gives some sort of immunity reaction so clearly herd immunity is a thing. I'm not as optimistic as Elroi is though, I definitely think there's a second wave coming. I'd be interested in hearing evidence for the claim that "Sweden has achieved herd immunity". I remember reading a report that said despite their open strategy of letting the pandemic take its course, Stockhold only had 20% of ppl with antibodies, which is far from what anybody would consider "herd immunity". This was over a month ago, so maybe this changed in the meantime.
Who has made the claim that Sweden has achieved herd immunity? Point is that getting there is a progress.
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Right, but the point is also that progress towards herd immunity can look an awful lot like uncontrolled spread.
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On September 22 2020 21:16 Longshank wrote:Show nested quote +On September 22 2020 20:49 Sbrubbles wrote:On September 22 2020 19:20 Longshank wrote:On September 22 2020 07:11 LegalLord wrote:On September 22 2020 05:52 Elroi wrote:
Personally I am very happy with the way Sweden has handled this pandemic (and I say that as someone who dislikes a lot about our current government). We have had no lockdown and very few compulsory measures that we could easily continue to implement for a very long time. Now it looks like the pandemic is all but over here because of the high level of immunity in the population (there are almost no new cases at all despite almost everything being back to normal). Herd immunity is a tired old claim oft-repeated, but seldom justified. Sweden certainly did manage to finally handle its first wave, after an infection & death rate far worse than its geographically similar neighbors and one on par with its far more vulnerable European mainland counterparts, so that's something. It didn't end up being the poster child of colossal failure, only a moderate one, so that's good. But herd immunity? More than a little dubious, that assertion is. Herd immunity isn't a binary thing. If a portion of the population is immune it reduces the overall spread. The bigger the portion the larger the reduction. The infection evidently gives some sort of immunity reaction so clearly herd immunity is a thing. I'm not as optimistic as Elroi is though, I definitely think there's a second wave coming. I'd be interested in hearing evidence for the claim that "Sweden has achieved herd immunity". I remember reading a report that said despite their open strategy of letting the pandemic take its course, Stockhold only had 20% of ppl with antibodies, which is far from what anybody would consider "herd immunity". This was over a month ago, so maybe this changed in the meantime. Who has made the claim that Sweden has achieved herd immunity? Point is that getting there is a progress.
On September 22 2020 05:52 Elroi wrote:
Personally I am very happy with the way Sweden has handled this pandemic (and I say that as someone who dislikes a lot about our current government). We have had no lockdown and very few compulsory measures that we could easily continue to implement for a very long time. Now it looks like the pandemic is all but over here because of the high level of immunity in the population (there are almost no new cases at all despite almost everything being back to normal).
(it's the first in the quote chain, so "Elroi" is the answer to your question)
So yeah, I'd like to understand what evidence there is of this "high level of immunity"
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On September 22 2020 21:45 Sbrubbles wrote:Show nested quote +On September 22 2020 21:16 Longshank wrote:On September 22 2020 20:49 Sbrubbles wrote:On September 22 2020 19:20 Longshank wrote:On September 22 2020 07:11 LegalLord wrote:On September 22 2020 05:52 Elroi wrote:
Personally I am very happy with the way Sweden has handled this pandemic (and I say that as someone who dislikes a lot about our current government). We have had no lockdown and very few compulsory measures that we could easily continue to implement for a very long time. Now it looks like the pandemic is all but over here because of the high level of immunity in the population (there are almost no new cases at all despite almost everything being back to normal). Herd immunity is a tired old claim oft-repeated, but seldom justified. Sweden certainly did manage to finally handle its first wave, after an infection & death rate far worse than its geographically similar neighbors and one on par with its far more vulnerable European mainland counterparts, so that's something. It didn't end up being the poster child of colossal failure, only a moderate one, so that's good. But herd immunity? More than a little dubious, that assertion is. Herd immunity isn't a binary thing. If a portion of the population is immune it reduces the overall spread. The bigger the portion the larger the reduction. The infection evidently gives some sort of immunity reaction so clearly herd immunity is a thing. I'm not as optimistic as Elroi is though, I definitely think there's a second wave coming. I'd be interested in hearing evidence for the claim that "Sweden has achieved herd immunity". I remember reading a report that said despite their open strategy of letting the pandemic take its course, Stockhold only had 20% of ppl with antibodies, which is far from what anybody would consider "herd immunity". This was over a month ago, so maybe this changed in the meantime. Who has made the claim that Sweden has achieved herd immunity? Point is that getting there is a progress. Show nested quote +On September 22 2020 05:52 Elroi wrote:
Personally I am very happy with the way Sweden has handled this pandemic (and I say that as someone who dislikes a lot about our current government). We have had no lockdown and very few compulsory measures that we could easily continue to implement for a very long time. Now it looks like the pandemic is all but over here because of the high level of immunity in the population (there are almost no new cases at all despite almost everything being back to normal). (it's the first in the quote chain, so "Elroi" is the answer to your question) So yeah, I'd like to understand what evidence there is of this "high level of immunity"
Every European country is having an increase in cases and a mild increase in deaths. Sweden is not, while seemingly not caring about masks. Whether people like to call that herd immunity or not, I think it's fair to say they might have been on to something all along.
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On September 22 2020 21:57 warding wrote:Show nested quote +On September 22 2020 21:45 Sbrubbles wrote:On September 22 2020 21:16 Longshank wrote:On September 22 2020 20:49 Sbrubbles wrote:On September 22 2020 19:20 Longshank wrote:On September 22 2020 07:11 LegalLord wrote:On September 22 2020 05:52 Elroi wrote:
Personally I am very happy with the way Sweden has handled this pandemic (and I say that as someone who dislikes a lot about our current government). We have had no lockdown and very few compulsory measures that we could easily continue to implement for a very long time. Now it looks like the pandemic is all but over here because of the high level of immunity in the population (there are almost no new cases at all despite almost everything being back to normal). Herd immunity is a tired old claim oft-repeated, but seldom justified. Sweden certainly did manage to finally handle its first wave, after an infection & death rate far worse than its geographically similar neighbors and one on par with its far more vulnerable European mainland counterparts, so that's something. It didn't end up being the poster child of colossal failure, only a moderate one, so that's good. But herd immunity? More than a little dubious, that assertion is. Herd immunity isn't a binary thing. If a portion of the population is immune it reduces the overall spread. The bigger the portion the larger the reduction. The infection evidently gives some sort of immunity reaction so clearly herd immunity is a thing. I'm not as optimistic as Elroi is though, I definitely think there's a second wave coming. I'd be interested in hearing evidence for the claim that "Sweden has achieved herd immunity". I remember reading a report that said despite their open strategy of letting the pandemic take its course, Stockhold only had 20% of ppl with antibodies, which is far from what anybody would consider "herd immunity". This was over a month ago, so maybe this changed in the meantime. Who has made the claim that Sweden has achieved herd immunity? Point is that getting there is a progress. On September 22 2020 05:52 Elroi wrote:
Personally I am very happy with the way Sweden has handled this pandemic (and I say that as someone who dislikes a lot about our current government). We have had no lockdown and very few compulsory measures that we could easily continue to implement for a very long time. Now it looks like the pandemic is all but over here because of the high level of immunity in the population (there are almost no new cases at all despite almost everything being back to normal). (it's the first in the quote chain, so "Elroi" is the answer to your question) So yeah, I'd like to understand what evidence there is of this "high level of immunity" Every European country is having an increase in cases and a mild increase in deaths. Sweden is not, while seemingly not caring about masks. Whether people like to call that herd immunity or not, I think it's fair to say they might have been on to something all along.
I was hoping for more direct evidence in the way, perhaps, of serological studies, but thanks. I understand Sweden is at this point doing well, I'm not yet convinced it's necessarily because of a supposed herd immunity.
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On September 22 2020 22:04 Sbrubbles wrote:Show nested quote +On September 22 2020 21:57 warding wrote:On September 22 2020 21:45 Sbrubbles wrote:On September 22 2020 21:16 Longshank wrote:On September 22 2020 20:49 Sbrubbles wrote:On September 22 2020 19:20 Longshank wrote:On September 22 2020 07:11 LegalLord wrote:On September 22 2020 05:52 Elroi wrote:
Personally I am very happy with the way Sweden has handled this pandemic (and I say that as someone who dislikes a lot about our current government). We have had no lockdown and very few compulsory measures that we could easily continue to implement for a very long time. Now it looks like the pandemic is all but over here because of the high level of immunity in the population (there are almost no new cases at all despite almost everything being back to normal). Herd immunity is a tired old claim oft-repeated, but seldom justified. Sweden certainly did manage to finally handle its first wave, after an infection & death rate far worse than its geographically similar neighbors and one on par with its far more vulnerable European mainland counterparts, so that's something. It didn't end up being the poster child of colossal failure, only a moderate one, so that's good. But herd immunity? More than a little dubious, that assertion is. Herd immunity isn't a binary thing. If a portion of the population is immune it reduces the overall spread. The bigger the portion the larger the reduction. The infection evidently gives some sort of immunity reaction so clearly herd immunity is a thing. I'm not as optimistic as Elroi is though, I definitely think there's a second wave coming. I'd be interested in hearing evidence for the claim that "Sweden has achieved herd immunity". I remember reading a report that said despite their open strategy of letting the pandemic take its course, Stockhold only had 20% of ppl with antibodies, which is far from what anybody would consider "herd immunity". This was over a month ago, so maybe this changed in the meantime. Who has made the claim that Sweden has achieved herd immunity? Point is that getting there is a progress. On September 22 2020 05:52 Elroi wrote:
Personally I am very happy with the way Sweden has handled this pandemic (and I say that as someone who dislikes a lot about our current government). We have had no lockdown and very few compulsory measures that we could easily continue to implement for a very long time. Now it looks like the pandemic is all but over here because of the high level of immunity in the population (there are almost no new cases at all despite almost everything being back to normal). (it's the first in the quote chain, so "Elroi" is the answer to your question) So yeah, I'd like to understand what evidence there is of this "high level of immunity" Every European country is having an increase in cases and a mild increase in deaths. Sweden is not, while seemingly not caring about masks. Whether people like to call that herd immunity or not, I think it's fair to say they might have been on to something all along. I was hoping for more direct evidence in the way, perhaps, of serological studies, but thanks. I understand Sweden is at this point doing well, I'm not yet convinced it's necessarily because of a supposed herd immunity.
Serological studies don't tell you the full story, since they seem to decrease over time in assymptomatic and mild symptom cases. So thus far it seems that most serological underestimate the true degree of past cases. One source: https://news.ki.se/immunity-to-covid-19-is-probably-higher-than-tests-have-shown
Here's some interesting speculation: https://twitter.com/gummibear737/status/1305215126379917314?s=20
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On September 22 2020 21:57 warding wrote:Show nested quote +On September 22 2020 21:45 Sbrubbles wrote:On September 22 2020 21:16 Longshank wrote:On September 22 2020 20:49 Sbrubbles wrote:On September 22 2020 19:20 Longshank wrote:On September 22 2020 07:11 LegalLord wrote:On September 22 2020 05:52 Elroi wrote:
Personally I am very happy with the way Sweden has handled this pandemic (and I say that as someone who dislikes a lot about our current government). We have had no lockdown and very few compulsory measures that we could easily continue to implement for a very long time. Now it looks like the pandemic is all but over here because of the high level of immunity in the population (there are almost no new cases at all despite almost everything being back to normal). Herd immunity is a tired old claim oft-repeated, but seldom justified. Sweden certainly did manage to finally handle its first wave, after an infection & death rate far worse than its geographically similar neighbors and one on par with its far more vulnerable European mainland counterparts, so that's something. It didn't end up being the poster child of colossal failure, only a moderate one, so that's good. But herd immunity? More than a little dubious, that assertion is. Herd immunity isn't a binary thing. If a portion of the population is immune it reduces the overall spread. The bigger the portion the larger the reduction. The infection evidently gives some sort of immunity reaction so clearly herd immunity is a thing. I'm not as optimistic as Elroi is though, I definitely think there's a second wave coming. I'd be interested in hearing evidence for the claim that "Sweden has achieved herd immunity". I remember reading a report that said despite their open strategy of letting the pandemic take its course, Stockhold only had 20% of ppl with antibodies, which is far from what anybody would consider "herd immunity". This was over a month ago, so maybe this changed in the meantime. Who has made the claim that Sweden has achieved herd immunity? Point is that getting there is a progress. On September 22 2020 05:52 Elroi wrote:
Personally I am very happy with the way Sweden has handled this pandemic (and I say that as someone who dislikes a lot about our current government). We have had no lockdown and very few compulsory measures that we could easily continue to implement for a very long time. Now it looks like the pandemic is all but over here because of the high level of immunity in the population (there are almost no new cases at all despite almost everything being back to normal). (it's the first in the quote chain, so "Elroi" is the answer to your question) So yeah, I'd like to understand what evidence there is of this "high level of immunity" Every European country is having an increase in cases and a mild increase in deaths. Sweden is not, while seemingly not caring about masks. Whether people like to call that herd immunity or not, I think it's fair to say they might have been on to something all along.
Sweden reached its high point later than most other European countries. It's entirely possible it will rise again later as well. There are far too many factors in play to attribute anything to immunity levels yet.
Especially as you can't look at Spain or France and ignore the fact that they were hit harder than Sweden despite taking drastic measures: if immunity at low percentages were protective, then these countries should have a lower uptick, whereas instead they are, once again, hit comparatively hard.
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Perhaps I misunderstood his 'high level of immunity' but if he indeed meant close to achieving herd immunity then I agree, that's wishful thinking at best. There are signs that the spread is increasing currently, even if not at the same pace as in other countries. This could either be that we're just in a different stage or that we have a higher level of immunity. My unfounded guess is a combination of both.
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Sweden's lack of good infection / active case data also makes it very difficult to properly gauge what's going on in the country. In the early phases, the government made the strange (bad) choice to test minimally, when the death rate was substantial enough for it to be obvious that something was going horribly wrong. Later, they started to track more meaningfully, but we lost out on the first few months of data. Now, they have decent statistics reporting but at least on Worldometers it only seems to update with a several day lag in case loads?
Deaths are down across the board, in part due to the fact that the coronavirus is primarily infecting young people with poor judgment rather than old people in nursery homes. Maybe that's the same in Sweden, or maybe their infection rate is way down as well. With their questionable reporting, it's really hard to tell.
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On September 22 2020 23:20 LegalLord wrote:
Sweden's lack of good infection / active case data also makes it very difficult to properly gauge what's going on in the country. In the early phases, the government made the strange (bad) choice to test minimally, when the death rate was substantial enough for it to be obvious that something was going horribly wrong. Later, they started to track more meaningfully, but we lost out on the first few months of data. Now, they have decent statistics reporting but at least on Worldometers it only seems to update with a several day lag in case loads?
Deaths are down across the board, in part due to the fact that the coronavirus is primarily infecting young people with poor judgment rather than old people in nursery homes. Maybe that's the same in Sweden, or maybe their infection rate is way down as well. With their questionable reporting, it's really hard to tell.
I'm confused, what in the data makes you question that infection rate is way down compared to spring/early summer?
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On September 22 2020 23:51 Longshank wrote:Show nested quote +On September 22 2020 23:20 LegalLord wrote:
Sweden's lack of good infection / active case data also makes it very difficult to properly gauge what's going on in the country. In the early phases, the government made the strange (bad) choice to test minimally, when the death rate was substantial enough for it to be obvious that something was going horribly wrong. Later, they started to track more meaningfully, but we lost out on the first few months of data. Now, they have decent statistics reporting but at least on Worldometers it only seems to update with a several day lag in case loads?
Deaths are down across the board, in part due to the fact that the coronavirus is primarily infecting young people with poor judgment rather than old people in nursery homes. Maybe that's the same in Sweden, or maybe their infection rate is way down as well. With their questionable reporting, it's really hard to tell. I'm confused, what in the data makes you question that infection rate is way down compared to spring/early summer?
The sparseness of Sweden's data reporting in general, especially back in spring but even now.
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On September 23 2020 00:08 LegalLord wrote:Show nested quote +On September 22 2020 23:51 Longshank wrote:On September 22 2020 23:20 LegalLord wrote:
Sweden's lack of good infection / active case data also makes it very difficult to properly gauge what's going on in the country. In the early phases, the government made the strange (bad) choice to test minimally, when the death rate was substantial enough for it to be obvious that something was going horribly wrong. Later, they started to track more meaningfully, but we lost out on the first few months of data. Now, they have decent statistics reporting but at least on Worldometers it only seems to update with a several day lag in case loads?
Deaths are down across the board, in part due to the fact that the coronavirus is primarily infecting young people with poor judgment rather than old people in nursery homes. Maybe that's the same in Sweden, or maybe their infection rate is way down as well. With their questionable reporting, it's really hard to tell. I'm confused, what in the data makes you question that infection rate is way down compared to spring/early summer? The sparseness of Sweden's data reporting in general, especially back in spring but even now.
Sweden reported cases every week day, since last week Tuesday to Friday. Do you have a link to something that suggests that the reported numbers aren't accurate? I'm genuinely asking because this is the first time I've heard about it.
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On September 22 2020 20:23 Geisterkarle wrote:Show nested quote +On September 22 2020 06:12 WarSame wrote:
Elroi, I agree overall. I think masks mandatory on the subway and other close interior spaces(i.e. grocery stores but not airplane hangars) is the right approach. I think mandatory outdoor masks is ridiculous, though I don't know anywhere that's required. Here in Germany, capital of Bavaria, Munich just did that! ... On the other hand, you can still have partys with 100 people ... I'm not sure how this collides with the new rule, that you are only allowed to meet 5 persons (outside your household), but "i'm sure those people that made these rules know what they are doing"... > https://www.swp.de/politik/inland/corona-bayern-aktuell-muenchner-krisenstab-beraet-ueber-steigende-corona-zahlen-51627984.html (German)
That is a problem when on the one hand you need to make politics against corona, but on the other hand your really, really need to have an Oktoberfest of some kind for your friends who usually make major dough running the Oktoberfest party tents.
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Wow alright! I did not know lots of Europe was doing this. A lot of what I'm hearing is making me more appreciative of Canada's government. JT may be a bit of a smug prick, but he's overall a good leader.
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The problem is they don't want to affect businesses so they don't take any serious measures. This mandatory masks in outside spaces cannot help. It's obvious most of the spread happens indoors, but they will waste another month and watch cases increase while hoping that maybe that numbers will go down. In fact France is an example proving this.
I think eventually most of the Europe will have to apply serious measures to put the numbers back under control. They could start early by closing the bars, night clubs and prohibit alcohol selling in the evening.
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I just hope that i will be able to do my final exams in a month. I am gonna be seriously pissed if those assholes who just cannot do without an Oktoberfest forced me to be in Limbo for another half of a year. It is so strange to me. Just don't party for a year. You can do that. It isn't hard. Or football games. We can do without those, too.
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On September 23 2020 03:42 arbiter_md wrote:
The problem is they don't want to affect businesses so they don't take any serious measures. This mandatory masks in outside spaces cannot help. It's obvious most of the spread happens indoors, but they will waste another month and watch cases increase while hoping that maybe that numbers will go down. In fact France is an example proving this.
I think eventually most of the Europe will have to apply serious measures to put the numbers back under control. They could start early by closing the bars, night clubs and prohibit alcohol selling in the evening.
There will be decisions taken around wednesday of thursday here. It was not very worrying in that ICU cases were not increasing, but now they are finally. We are up to nearly 1000 severe cases, where we were around 400 in the low tide, and 7000 at the peak.
They will do all they can to avoid another shutdown, or shutting down restaurants, since you can seat at separate tables, but bars and nightlife might be hit again...
Then again, it's needed. "Plan blanc" has been triggered in Ile de France (Paris region) and some other regions, meaning crisis cells in hospitals and dedicated spaces/teams, and maybe rescheduling non-urgent surgeries if it comes to that.
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On September 23 2020 03:42 arbiter_md wrote: night clubs and prohibit alcohol selling in the evening.
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Night clubs are open?
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On September 23 2020 03:42 arbiter_md wrote:
The problem is they don't want to affect businesses so they don't take any serious measures. This mandatory masks in outside spaces cannot help. It's obvious most of the spread happens indoors, but they will waste another month and watch cases increase while hoping that maybe that numbers will go down. In fact France is an example proving this.
I think eventually most of the Europe will have to apply serious measures to put the numbers back under control. They could start early by closing the bars, night clubs and prohibit alcohol selling in the evening.
A second lockdown will kill the economy quite definitively, so most nations have aggressively tried to avoid having to do one of those. Masks, while being a useful half-measure, are obviously not going to stop the spread. It's just the best that anyone seems to have come up with in terms of trying to maintain a sense of normalcy while reducing pandemic death down to "acceptable losses."
Whether or not it works out, I suppose this second half of a year will show. Winter and the school year are both dangerous factors here.
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EPT
