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On September 22 2020 00:19 cLutZ wrote:Show nested quote +On September 21 2020 21:16 Longshank wrote:
At the very least, very few politicians spoke about what would happen once the lockdown was over. Lots of people asked what would happen in case of a post-summer second wave and no one seemed interested in answering. That was a future problem back then, it isn't anymore. The idea of a lockdown into another lockdown wasn't peddled. Right, because lockdown isn't and has never been a real plan. We remain in a planless world because politicians only have two viable options which they can't announce either to the public and survive: 1) Lockdowns forever; 2) Sorry but Grandma might die.
I think it makes sense to distinguish between varying levels of lockdown. In conversations like this I think using more specifics are helpful. For example, in Oregon, we have a lot of stuff we have to do because of covid, but our economy is pretty much up and running again.
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On September 22 2020 00:19 cLutZ wrote:Show nested quote +On September 21 2020 21:16 Longshank wrote:
At the very least, very few politicians spoke about what would happen once the lockdown was over. Lots of people asked what would happen in case of a post-summer second wave and no one seemed interested in answering. That was a future problem back then, it isn't anymore. The idea of a lockdown into another lockdown wasn't peddled. Right, because lockdown isn't and has never been a real plan. We remain in a planless world because politicians only have two viable options which they can't announce either to the public and survive: 1) Lockdowns forever; 2) Sorry but Grandma might die. Sorry but just cause your an American living in ignorance because of your failed political system that doesn't mean the rest of the world doesn't know what the plan is.
The initial lockdown measures were about avoiding hospitals from getting overwhelmed, which happened in Italy,France,NY as example because they were to late taking measures. To bring the disease down to a level where healthcare could cope with it, which it did and then slowly open back up keeping tabs on the spread and implementing new measures as needed. Trying to make the best of it until a vaccine is found hopefully in early/mid 2021. If not we have to come up with other solutions.
And that is exactly what is happening right now. Sure this 2nd wave we are experiencing atm has higher numbers then we hoped and I don't know how other countries are doing but sofar over here in the Netherlands hospital numbers are not following suit so sofar so good.
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Everyone had a lockdown of some sort; few still have one. Some were more successful than other; China pretty convincingly stopped the spread, US had a complete fail on that regard, Europe as a whole did so-so. Few seem to be under lockdown right now, and the economy is largely "opened up" to the extent it can be while a pandemic is going. Obviously people are working remote more than usual, and only really foolish people are traveling and eating out as much as pre-pandemic, so "the economy" won't run at full capacity for a while, recession effects notwithstanding.
The reality is we've largely transitioned mostly towards "people might die" at present. A little bit of Grandma, a little bit of youth who are unlucky enough to have a more severe than expected respiratory condition. We've collectively accepted some level of death in order to protect the economy and some misplaced sense of normalcy. It's worked worse than China, but I guess we will see just how bad it gets. Israel locked down again, let's see who's next.
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On September 22 2020 01:08 Gorsameth wrote:Show nested quote +On September 22 2020 00:19 cLutZ wrote:On September 21 2020 21:16 Longshank wrote:
At the very least, very few politicians spoke about what would happen once the lockdown was over. Lots of people asked what would happen in case of a post-summer second wave and no one seemed interested in answering. That was a future problem back then, it isn't anymore. The idea of a lockdown into another lockdown wasn't peddled. Right, because lockdown isn't and has never been a real plan. We remain in a planless world because politicians only have two viable options which they can't announce either to the public and survive: 1) Lockdowns forever; 2) Sorry but Grandma might die. Sorry but just cause your an American living in ignorance because of your failed political system that doesn't mean the rest of the world doesn't know what the plan is. The initial lockdown measures were about avoiding hospitals from getting overwhelmed, which happened in Italy,France,NY as example because they were to late taking measures. To bring the disease down to a level where healthcare could cope with it, which it did and then slowly open back up keeping tabs on the spread and implementing new measures as needed. Trying to make the best of it until a vaccine is found hopefully in early/mid 2021. If not we have to come up with other solutions. And that is exactly what is happening right now. Sure this 2nd wave we are experiencing atm has higher numbers then we hoped and I don't know how other countries are doing but sofar over here in the Netherlands hospital numbers are not following suit so sofar so good.
A compelling case for "American exceptionalism" in Covid can and [https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/09/14/opinion/politics/coronavirus-close-borders-travel-quarantine.html]has [/url]been made because of our lack of internal borders. If the US had gone full Wuhan on NY, its likely the rest of the country could have largely been spared, at least until this next winter. Of course, going even 10% Wuhan is gravely unconstitutional.
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On September 22 2020 01:59 cLutZ wrote:Show nested quote +On September 22 2020 01:08 Gorsameth wrote:On September 22 2020 00:19 cLutZ wrote:On September 21 2020 21:16 Longshank wrote:
At the very least, very few politicians spoke about what would happen once the lockdown was over. Lots of people asked what would happen in case of a post-summer second wave and no one seemed interested in answering. That was a future problem back then, it isn't anymore. The idea of a lockdown into another lockdown wasn't peddled. Right, because lockdown isn't and has never been a real plan. We remain in a planless world because politicians only have two viable options which they can't announce either to the public and survive: 1) Lockdowns forever; 2) Sorry but Grandma might die. Sorry but just cause your an American living in ignorance because of your failed political system that doesn't mean the rest of the world doesn't know what the plan is. The initial lockdown measures were about avoiding hospitals from getting overwhelmed, which happened in Italy,France,NY as example because they were to late taking measures. To bring the disease down to a level where healthcare could cope with it, which it did and then slowly open back up keeping tabs on the spread and implementing new measures as needed. Trying to make the best of it until a vaccine is found hopefully in early/mid 2021. If not we have to come up with other solutions. And that is exactly what is happening right now. Sure this 2nd wave we are experiencing atm has higher numbers then we hoped and I don't know how other countries are doing but sofar over here in the Netherlands hospital numbers are not following suit so sofar so good. A compelling case for "American exceptionalism" in Covid can and has been made because of our lack of internal borders. If the US had gone full Wuhan on NY, its likely the rest of the country could have largely been spared, at least until this next winter. Of course, going even 10% Wuhan is gravely unconstitutional.
You link is a 404. Is that an intentional joke? lol.
If 10% of Wuhan is gravely unconstituional, we need to find a better way. It shouldn't be that we are systematically weak to a pandemic. If humans put their brains towards something long enough, we can always find a better solution. If we have a weakness, we should fix it. Doesn't mean it is simple, but it is a clear room for improvement.
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On September 22 2020 02:34 Mohdoo wrote:Show nested quote +On September 22 2020 01:59 cLutZ wrote:On September 22 2020 01:08 Gorsameth wrote:On September 22 2020 00:19 cLutZ wrote:On September 21 2020 21:16 Longshank wrote:
At the very least, very few politicians spoke about what would happen once the lockdown was over. Lots of people asked what would happen in case of a post-summer second wave and no one seemed interested in answering. That was a future problem back then, it isn't anymore. The idea of a lockdown into another lockdown wasn't peddled. Right, because lockdown isn't and has never been a real plan. We remain in a planless world because politicians only have two viable options which they can't announce either to the public and survive: 1) Lockdowns forever; 2) Sorry but Grandma might die. Sorry but just cause your an American living in ignorance because of your failed political system that doesn't mean the rest of the world doesn't know what the plan is. The initial lockdown measures were about avoiding hospitals from getting overwhelmed, which happened in Italy,France,NY as example because they were to late taking measures. To bring the disease down to a level where healthcare could cope with it, which it did and then slowly open back up keeping tabs on the spread and implementing new measures as needed. Trying to make the best of it until a vaccine is found hopefully in early/mid 2021. If not we have to come up with other solutions. And that is exactly what is happening right now. Sure this 2nd wave we are experiencing atm has higher numbers then we hoped and I don't know how other countries are doing but sofar over here in the Netherlands hospital numbers are not following suit so sofar so good. A compelling case for "American exceptionalism" in Covid can and has been made because of our lack of internal borders. If the US had gone full Wuhan on NY, its likely the rest of the country could have largely been spared, at least until this next winter. Of course, going even 10% Wuhan is gravely unconstitutional. You link is a 404. Is that an intentional joke? lol. If 10% of Wuhan is gravely unconstituional, we need to find a better way. It shouldn't be that we are systematically weak to a pandemic. If humans put their brains towards something long enough, we can always find a better solution. If we have a weakness, we should fix it. Doesn't mean it is simple, but it is a clear room for improvement.
I fixed the link. Dunno why it needed it I got it from the Time's website.
Are we systematically weak to a pandemic? This pandemic has not demonstrated that.
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On September 22 2020 03:08 cLutZ wrote:Show nested quote +On September 22 2020 02:34 Mohdoo wrote:On September 22 2020 01:59 cLutZ wrote:On September 22 2020 01:08 Gorsameth wrote:On September 22 2020 00:19 cLutZ wrote:On September 21 2020 21:16 Longshank wrote:
At the very least, very few politicians spoke about what would happen once the lockdown was over. Lots of people asked what would happen in case of a post-summer second wave and no one seemed interested in answering. That was a future problem back then, it isn't anymore. The idea of a lockdown into another lockdown wasn't peddled. Right, because lockdown isn't and has never been a real plan. We remain in a planless world because politicians only have two viable options which they can't announce either to the public and survive: 1) Lockdowns forever; 2) Sorry but Grandma might die. Sorry but just cause your an American living in ignorance because of your failed political system that doesn't mean the rest of the world doesn't know what the plan is. The initial lockdown measures were about avoiding hospitals from getting overwhelmed, which happened in Italy,France,NY as example because they were to late taking measures. To bring the disease down to a level where healthcare could cope with it, which it did and then slowly open back up keeping tabs on the spread and implementing new measures as needed. Trying to make the best of it until a vaccine is found hopefully in early/mid 2021. If not we have to come up with other solutions. And that is exactly what is happening right now. Sure this 2nd wave we are experiencing atm has higher numbers then we hoped and I don't know how other countries are doing but sofar over here in the Netherlands hospital numbers are not following suit so sofar so good. A compelling case for "American exceptionalism" in Covid can and has been made because of our lack of internal borders. If the US had gone full Wuhan on NY, its likely the rest of the country could have largely been spared, at least until this next winter. Of course, going even 10% Wuhan is gravely unconstitutional. You link is a 404. Is that an intentional joke? lol. If 10% of Wuhan is gravely unconstituional, we need to find a better way. It shouldn't be that we are systematically weak to a pandemic. If humans put their brains towards something long enough, we can always find a better solution. If we have a weakness, we should fix it. Doesn't mean it is simple, but it is a clear room for improvement. I fixed the link. Dunno why it needed it I got it from the Time's website. Are we systematically weak to a pandemic? This pandemic has not demonstrated that.
China handled it better than us. Do you disagree?
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On September 22 2020 01:08 Gorsameth wrote:Show nested quote +On September 22 2020 00:19 cLutZ wrote:On September 21 2020 21:16 Longshank wrote:
At the very least, very few politicians spoke about what would happen once the lockdown was over. Lots of people asked what would happen in case of a post-summer second wave and no one seemed interested in answering. That was a future problem back then, it isn't anymore. The idea of a lockdown into another lockdown wasn't peddled. Right, because lockdown isn't and has never been a real plan. We remain in a planless world because politicians only have two viable options which they can't announce either to the public and survive: 1) Lockdowns forever; 2) Sorry but Grandma might die. Sorry but just cause your an American living in ignorance because of your failed political system that doesn't mean the rest of the world doesn't know what the plan is. The initial lockdown measures were about avoiding hospitals from getting overwhelmed, which happened in Italy,France,NY as example because they were to late taking measures. To bring the disease down to a level where healthcare could cope with it, which it did and then slowly open back up keeping tabs on the spread and implementing new measures as needed. Trying to make the best of it until a vaccine is found hopefully in early/mid 2021. If not we have to come up with other solutions. And that is exactly what is happening right now. Sure this 2nd wave we are experiencing atm has higher numbers then we hoped and I don't know how other countries are doing but sofar over here in the Netherlands hospital numbers are not following suit so sofar so good.
They are better then in march but its still not good. Its also because the elderly and vulnerable people rarely go to the hospital anymore,they get paliative care in nursing homes or at home. They dont show up in the numbers anymore and the wave has only just started to take off again.
Numbers are rising still btw in the netherlands,they are not flat.
"The idea of a lockdown into another lockdown wasn't peddled"
This was mentioned a few times,in great britain amongst other nations. A pump break aproach.
A new lockdown can not really be afforded economically,it will be postponed for as long as possible. For the economy it doesnt make that much of a difference though. Even without a lockdown the economic impact of a 2nd wave will be huge.
The alternative is the china aproach,for which there is not much public support right now. That might change eventually though.
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On September 21 2020 20:47 mahrgell wrote:Show nested quote +On September 21 2020 20:41 Elroi wrote:On September 21 2020 10:53 Mohdoo wrote:
I just kinda assumed Europe was only kind of a disaster, but apparently France and Spain are going nuts. What is going on over there? Did they ease restrictions or something? I think it is a pretty predictable result of politicians selling the lockdown into track and trace strategy as a means of eradicating the disease once and for all. The message was that everything should shut down for a short period of time and then everything will go back to normal. Now that the disease is back and that strategy has been exposed as false people don't listen to the authorities anymore. This is why I have always thought that it would be better to find a realistic long term strategy using moderate measures rather than aggressively enforcing stuff like mandatory mask usage when the gains are very debatable. I wonder what "moderate measures" you are suggesting, when even mask usage falls on the "too much" side for you. Thoughts and prayers? Also I wonder where you have overheard that lockdown into track and trace would be considered a means of eradicating the disease. Sounds like straight out of fantasy land. Except for NZ I'm not aware of any country having claimed to aim at eradicating the thing. And e.g. in Germany the communication was very clear from the very beginning that there will be restrictions at least until mid '21.
Sure, asking people to use masks in the subway is OK I guess. But forcing every one to wear a mask while walking in the street or being anywhere other than home is pretty draconian - especially if it only helps marginally or not at all. There are many sound measures that aren't only "hope and pray", including imo:
- payed sick leave from day one
- encouraging people to work from home
- switching universities and high schools into remote learning
- limiting night clubs, sporting events and restaurants
- isolating individuals who are at risk (elderly, immunocompromised people etc.)
I have been arguing with lots of people in this thread that believed that the disease would disappear because of lockdowns followed by track and trace. I think it was the most commonly held opinion in this thread most of the spring and summer. And when I pointed out that the disease would just come back into the country again (as it has in Israel etc.), they just pointed to mandatory quarantines as some kind of silver bullet.
Personally I am very happy with the way Sweden has handled this pandemic (and I say that as someone who dislikes a lot about our current government). We have had no lockdown and very few compulsory measures that we could easily continue to implement for a very long time. Now it looks like the pandemic is all but over here because of the high level of immunity in the population (there are almost no new cases at all despite almost everything being back to normal). And analysis of the excess mortality shows that the pandemic, while causing a lot of deaths, is comparable to a bad flu season (graphs over excess mortality) (comparison with excess mortality previous years - in Swedish).
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Elroi, I agree overall. I think masks mandatory on the subway and other close interior spaces(i.e. grocery stores but not airplane hangars) is the right approach. I think mandatory outdoor masks is ridiculous, though I don't know anywhere that's required.
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On September 22 2020 03:31 Mohdoo wrote:Show nested quote +On September 22 2020 03:08 cLutZ wrote:On September 22 2020 02:34 Mohdoo wrote:On September 22 2020 01:59 cLutZ wrote:On September 22 2020 01:08 Gorsameth wrote:On September 22 2020 00:19 cLutZ wrote:On September 21 2020 21:16 Longshank wrote:
At the very least, very few politicians spoke about what would happen once the lockdown was over. Lots of people asked what would happen in case of a post-summer second wave and no one seemed interested in answering. That was a future problem back then, it isn't anymore. The idea of a lockdown into another lockdown wasn't peddled. Right, because lockdown isn't and has never been a real plan. We remain in a planless world because politicians only have two viable options which they can't announce either to the public and survive: 1) Lockdowns forever; 2) Sorry but Grandma might die. Sorry but just cause your an American living in ignorance because of your failed political system that doesn't mean the rest of the world doesn't know what the plan is. The initial lockdown measures were about avoiding hospitals from getting overwhelmed, which happened in Italy,France,NY as example because they were to late taking measures. To bring the disease down to a level where healthcare could cope with it, which it did and then slowly open back up keeping tabs on the spread and implementing new measures as needed. Trying to make the best of it until a vaccine is found hopefully in early/mid 2021. If not we have to come up with other solutions. And that is exactly what is happening right now. Sure this 2nd wave we are experiencing atm has higher numbers then we hoped and I don't know how other countries are doing but sofar over here in the Netherlands hospital numbers are not following suit so sofar so good. A compelling case for "American exceptionalism" in Covid can and has been made because of our lack of internal borders. If the US had gone full Wuhan on NY, its likely the rest of the country could have largely been spared, at least until this next winter. Of course, going even 10% Wuhan is gravely unconstitutional. You link is a 404. Is that an intentional joke? lol. If 10% of Wuhan is gravely unconstituional, we need to find a better way. It shouldn't be that we are systematically weak to a pandemic. If humans put their brains towards something long enough, we can always find a better solution. If we have a weakness, we should fix it. Doesn't mean it is simple, but it is a clear room for improvement. I fixed the link. Dunno why it needed it I got it from the Time's website. Are we systematically weak to a pandemic? This pandemic has not demonstrated that. China handled it better than us. Do you disagree?
Kind of. First, they had to resort to welding people into homes and just outright suppression of the people. Its not really useful to compare that obviously undoable thing to our response. Also, China is full of Chinese people, a demographic that is also crushing it in the US with their Corona numbers.
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On September 22 2020 06:30 cLutZ wrote:Show nested quote +On September 22 2020 03:31 Mohdoo wrote:On September 22 2020 03:08 cLutZ wrote:On September 22 2020 02:34 Mohdoo wrote:On September 22 2020 01:59 cLutZ wrote:On September 22 2020 01:08 Gorsameth wrote:On September 22 2020 00:19 cLutZ wrote:On September 21 2020 21:16 Longshank wrote:
At the very least, very few politicians spoke about what would happen once the lockdown was over. Lots of people asked what would happen in case of a post-summer second wave and no one seemed interested in answering. That was a future problem back then, it isn't anymore. The idea of a lockdown into another lockdown wasn't peddled. Right, because lockdown isn't and has never been a real plan. We remain in a planless world because politicians only have two viable options which they can't announce either to the public and survive: 1) Lockdowns forever; 2) Sorry but Grandma might die. Sorry but just cause your an American living in ignorance because of your failed political system that doesn't mean the rest of the world doesn't know what the plan is. The initial lockdown measures were about avoiding hospitals from getting overwhelmed, which happened in Italy,France,NY as example because they were to late taking measures. To bring the disease down to a level where healthcare could cope with it, which it did and then slowly open back up keeping tabs on the spread and implementing new measures as needed. Trying to make the best of it until a vaccine is found hopefully in early/mid 2021. If not we have to come up with other solutions. And that is exactly what is happening right now. Sure this 2nd wave we are experiencing atm has higher numbers then we hoped and I don't know how other countries are doing but sofar over here in the Netherlands hospital numbers are not following suit so sofar so good. A compelling case for "American exceptionalism" in Covid can and has been made because of our lack of internal borders. If the US had gone full Wuhan on NY, its likely the rest of the country could have largely been spared, at least until this next winter. Of course, going even 10% Wuhan is gravely unconstitutional. You link is a 404. Is that an intentional joke? lol. If 10% of Wuhan is gravely unconstituional, we need to find a better way. It shouldn't be that we are systematically weak to a pandemic. If humans put their brains towards something long enough, we can always find a better solution. If we have a weakness, we should fix it. Doesn't mean it is simple, but it is a clear room for improvement. I fixed the link. Dunno why it needed it I got it from the Time's website. Are we systematically weak to a pandemic? This pandemic has not demonstrated that. China handled it better than us. Do you disagree? Kind of. First, they had to resort to welding people into homes and just outright suppression of the people. Its not really useful to compare that obviously undoable thing to our response. Also, China is full of Chinese people, a demographic that is also crushing it in the US with their Corona numbers.
My point is that if we can observe a difference between 2 different situations, we can say it shows that there is room for change within those 2 situations. I am not convinced it is as simple as "different populations, guess we gotta YOLO it". We can keep thinking, trying, theorizing and try to have the best response we possibly can.
1. The USA does not make enough of its own PPE
2. The USA does not have sufficient vaccine manufacturing
3. We do not have a "oh shit, pandemic, do this real quick while we figure out what's going on" plan. Similar to how USPS could have shipped masks to every house, we need something like that. It was extremely irresponsible for the government to not distribute masks in March.
That is a start. We could likely do more, but those are things that are direct weaknesses of ours.
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On September 22 2020 05:52 Elroi wrote:
Personally I am very happy with the way Sweden has handled this pandemic (and I say that as someone who dislikes a lot about our current government). We have had no lockdown and very few compulsory measures that we could easily continue to implement for a very long time. Now it looks like the pandemic is all but over here because of the high level of immunity in the population (there are almost no new cases at all despite almost everything being back to normal).
Herd immunity is a tired old claim oft-repeated, but seldom justified. Sweden certainly did manage to finally handle its first wave, after an infection & death rate far worse than its geographically similar neighbors and one on par with its far more vulnerable European mainland counterparts, so that's something. It didn't end up being the poster child of colossal failure, only a moderate one, so that's good. But herd immunity? More than a little dubious, that assertion is.
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On September 22 2020 06:12 WarSame wrote:
Elroi, I agree overall. I think masks mandatory on the subway and other close interior spaces(i.e. grocery stores but not airplane hangars) is the right approach. I think mandatory outdoor masks is ridiculous, though I don't know anywhere that's required.
Most of the large cities en France :-)
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On September 22 2020 06:12 WarSame wrote:
Elroi, I agree overall. I think masks mandatory on the subway and other close interior spaces(i.e. grocery stores but not airplane hangars) is the right approach. I think mandatory outdoor masks is ridiculous, though I don't know anywhere that's required.
FYI there are outdoor situations where you can spread covid. It isn't as simple as "but isn't outside big???"
It all comes down to how many little covid fuckheads find their way to your ace2 receptors. That is able to happen outside. Plenty of examples of pool parties being major infection hubs and stuff. Being safer outside is not the same as being immune while outside.
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On September 22 2020 09:26 Mohdoo wrote:Show nested quote +On September 22 2020 06:12 WarSame wrote:
Elroi, I agree overall. I think masks mandatory on the subway and other close interior spaces(i.e. grocery stores but not airplane hangars) is the right approach. I think mandatory outdoor masks is ridiculous, though I don't know anywhere that's required. FYI there are outdoor situations where you can spread covid. It isn't as simple as "but isn't outside big???" It all comes down to how many little covid fuckheads find their way to your ace2 receptors. That is able to happen outside. Plenty of examples of pool parties being major infection hubs and stuff. Being safer outside is not the same as being immune while outside.
Right, I should have been more specific. I meant outside in spread areas, like parks, or non-busy sidewalks. Wave pools would be terrible even though they are outside.
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On September 22 2020 06:12 WarSame wrote:
Elroi, I agree overall. I think masks mandatory on the subway and other close interior spaces(i.e. grocery stores but not airplane hangars) is the right approach. I think mandatory outdoor masks is ridiculous, though I don't know anywhere that's required.
In Spain, and it is ridiculous. In the center of Barcelona I looked at it as fairly normal: streets are so busy you might as well be inside. However, it isn't just mandatory in the busy streets of the center of major cities, but *everywhere* (theoretically even when hiking in the mountains). It is way overboard and probably reduces support and compliance of wearing masks properly when it is more useful. For instance, people don't wear them over their noses (just over their mouths) and then go into shops or take a train, and don't put their mask back over their nose. Moreover, wearing masks for prolonged periods in this weather just makes them drenched with condense and sweat, so they stop working... and nobody cares about that either (because while masks are quite cheap, with no end in sight, it is an added expense to an already taxed economy). Imho the "masks everywhere" policy of Spain is very bad. But it is what it is, and if the police catches you without one, they can fine you pretty severely.
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On September 22 2020 07:11 LegalLord wrote:Show nested quote +On September 22 2020 05:52 Elroi wrote:
Personally I am very happy with the way Sweden has handled this pandemic (and I say that as someone who dislikes a lot about our current government). We have had no lockdown and very few compulsory measures that we could easily continue to implement for a very long time. Now it looks like the pandemic is all but over here because of the high level of immunity in the population (there are almost no new cases at all despite almost everything being back to normal). Herd immunity is a tired old claim oft-repeated, but seldom justified. Sweden certainly did manage to finally handle its first wave, after an infection & death rate far worse than its geographically similar neighbors and one on par with its far more vulnerable European mainland counterparts, so that's something. It didn't end up being the poster child of colossal failure, only a moderate one, so that's good. But herd immunity? More than a little dubious, that assertion is.
Herd immunity isn't a binary thing. If a portion of the population is immune it reduces the overall spread. The bigger the portion the larger the reduction. The infection evidently gives some sort of immunity reaction so clearly herd immunity is a thing.
I'm not as optimistic as Elroi is though, I definitely think there's a second wave coming.
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On September 22 2020 06:12 WarSame wrote:
Elroi, I agree overall. I think masks mandatory on the subway and other close interior spaces(i.e. grocery stores but not airplane hangars) is the right approach. I think mandatory outdoor masks is ridiculous, though I don't know anywhere that's required.
Here in Germany, capital of Bavaria, Munich just did that!
...
On the other hand, you can still have partys with 100 people ... I'm not sure how this collides with the new rule, that you are only allowed to meet 5 persons (outside your household), but "i'm sure those people that made these rules know what they are doing"...
> https://www.swp.de/politik/inland/corona-bayern-aktuell-muenchner-krisenstab-beraet-ueber-steigende-corona-zahlen-51627984.html
(German)
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On September 22 2020 19:20 Longshank wrote:Show nested quote +On September 22 2020 07:11 LegalLord wrote:On September 22 2020 05:52 Elroi wrote:
Personally I am very happy with the way Sweden has handled this pandemic (and I say that as someone who dislikes a lot about our current government). We have had no lockdown and very few compulsory measures that we could easily continue to implement for a very long time. Now it looks like the pandemic is all but over here because of the high level of immunity in the population (there are almost no new cases at all despite almost everything being back to normal). Herd immunity is a tired old claim oft-repeated, but seldom justified. Sweden certainly did manage to finally handle its first wave, after an infection & death rate far worse than its geographically similar neighbors and one on par with its far more vulnerable European mainland counterparts, so that's something. It didn't end up being the poster child of colossal failure, only a moderate one, so that's good. But herd immunity? More than a little dubious, that assertion is. Herd immunity isn't a binary thing. If a portion of the population is immune it reduces the overall spread. The bigger the portion the larger the reduction. The infection evidently gives some sort of immunity reaction so clearly herd immunity is a thing. I'm not as optimistic as Elroi is though, I definitely think there's a second wave coming.
I'd be interested in hearing evidence for the claim that "Sweden has achieved herd immunity". I remember reading a report that said despite their open strategy of letting the pandemic take its course, Stockhold only had 20% of ppl with antibodies, which is far from what anybody would consider "herd immunity". This was over a month ago, so maybe this changed in the meantime.
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EPT
