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On March 12 2020 16:08 Slydie wrote:Show nested quote +On March 12 2020 14:18 Nyxisto wrote:On March 12 2020 13:56 REDBLUEGREEN wrote:On March 12 2020 13:37 evilfatsh1t wrote:
i for one completely agree that its completely irrational to actively shutdown society and tank the global economy. deciding to negatively impact the livelihood of literally everyone alive on the planet in order to prevent a small percentage of people from contracting a virus that kills an even smaller percentage of people is stupid.
From current data COVID is both more infectious and deadlier than the Spanish Flu that killed 18-50 million of a world population of 1.9 billion back then. More importantly 20% of cases require hospitalization and once the healthcare system is overwhelmed (already happening in Italy with 12k cases) the fatality rate could quickly rise from the current global 3.5% to something between 3.5 and 20%. Merkel, as the first politician I saw, finally reflected expert opinion and said this virus could infect 60-70% of Germans. The number won't be much different for other countries. You can calculate yourself with a CFR of 3.5% what this means... You have your data wrong by a magnitude. The Spanish flu killed about 10-20% of the people it infected. This virus has killed about 3% in strongly overwhelmed regions like Hubei or North Italy and appears to kill about ~0.7% or so of people in regions with adequate healthcare. The risk profile is also different in that the Spanish flu killed people with healthy immune systems due to causing cytokine syndrome. On the infectiousness, it's not quite clear but according to the latest WHO reports the main route of infection for covid-19 is symptomatic people which would be a relatively good sign. Not to mention that comparing to pandemies a 100 years ago is irrelevant. The last time I checked, the deathrate of those infected was already below 1%, and I believe it will be way under 0,5 when it is all said and done. It is still higher than a normal flu, but not enough to warrant these drastic measures. I have flashbacks to when the volcano on Iceland put every plane in Europe on the ground, but it proved to be for nothing as the ash did not stop the engines as feared. Old and sick people die from infections all the time, Corona virus or anything else. I am sick of this panic!
How you can reach <1% deathrate with 120000 known infected and around 60k healed, and 4000+ deaths is beyond me. Don't extrapolate on what we don't know (non-detected infections) please.
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I think any focus on mortality rates and other stats is mostly misguided, the numbers are still up in the air and there is far too much about this we simply don't know yet. What we do know is that we are in risk management mode and there is ample opportunity to prevent things from getting worse, if we are so willing.
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Seeker
Where dat snitch at?37032 Posts
Everyone, please remember that any and all updates regarding the COVID-19 MUST have a source supporting your statement. Warnings and bans will be given to repeated offenders.
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So, unconfirmed for now but I have some insider info (regional medical coordinator's office and high ranking military personnel) regarding the situation in Poland and my city (Lublin) in particular.
- kindergartens, schools and universities closed
- later today they will probably announce that all the bars and similar places will be closed
- sometime soon they might announce the state of emergency with ban on gatherings of more than 10 people and police hour
- some cities have closed the government buildings (courts and such)
Some of the above is already implemented in places, I think it's just a matter of time before it becomes nation-wide.
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On March 12 2020 14:18 Nyxisto wrote:Show nested quote +On March 12 2020 13:56 REDBLUEGREEN wrote:On March 12 2020 13:37 evilfatsh1t wrote:
i for one completely agree that its completely irrational to actively shutdown society and tank the global economy. deciding to negatively impact the livelihood of literally everyone alive on the planet in order to prevent a small percentage of people from contracting a virus that kills an even smaller percentage of people is stupid.
From current data COVID is both more infectious and deadlier than the Spanish Flu that killed 18-50 million of a world population of 1.9 billion back then. More importantly 20% of cases require hospitalization and once the healthcare system is overwhelmed (already happening in Italy with 12k cases) the fatality rate could quickly rise from the current global 3.5% to something between 3.5 and 20%. Merkel, as the first politician I saw, finally reflected expert opinion and said this virus could infect 60-70% of Germans. The number won't be much different for other countries. You can calculate yourself with a CFR of 3.5% what this means... You have your data wrong by a magnitude. The Spanish flu killed about 10-20% of the people it infected. This virus has killed about 3% in strongly overwhelmed regions like Hubei or North Italy and appears to kill about ~0.7% or so of people in regions with adequate healthcare. The risk profile is also different in that the Spanish flu killed people with healthy immune systems due to causing cytokine syndrome. On the infectiousness, it's not quite clear but according to the latest WHO reports the main route of infection for covid-19 is symptomatic people which would be a relatively good sign.
All available data says that this is incorrect.
https://ourworldindata.org/spanish-flu-largest-influenza-pandemic-in-history
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu
https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/12/1/05-0979_article
The Spanish flu had a CFR that is comparable to current COVID-19 estimates.
Wild, baseless speculation on what the CFR "actually" is because of theoretical unreported cases doesn't help one's argument. There are actual epidemiological methods to try to factor these kinds of things in instead of just hand-waving over the internet.
Not only this, but people brushing off the burden on the healthcare system is dangerously naive. There are already a lot of reports of this out of places like Italy, Seattle, and other metro areas that are hard-hit. Hospitals do not have anywhere near the capacity to treat even a quarter of a community's population is they are sick around the same time.
Finally, if we want to speculate, things may very well get worse. From currently available data, COVID-19 has higher death rates in all age groups than the seasonal flu. Yes, the CFR is still small in younger patients, but it's not "nothing", and that rate may very well go up as the western world becomes infected. Prognosis for those that are unhealthy, (hypertension, obesity, diabetes) is markedly worse, and the western world is far less healthy than places like China, Singapore, and South Korea.
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is awesome32277 Posts
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I wonder if it's because of the communion that the churches seem to have been hit so hard by the disease.
TLDR: In South Korea one patient, "Patient 31", managed to infect an absurd amount of people in very short time. She was in a car accident, was hospitalized, and then went to two church services.
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Norway28692 Posts
Schools closing today, at first for two weeks, then reassess, either way, I basically have no job for the next month. (In two weeks easter break is only 1 week off, and I think it's 'not unlikely' that schools stay shut down for at least one more week.)
Still have some stuff (one class per week gonna be digitalized so I'll have to work on that) Does give a slight cut to my paycheck, but nothing too severe.
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United States43032 Posts
Given how infectious it is a struggle to believe that China isn’t experiencing a steady exponential increase in new cases. I’ll absolutely believe that the drastic containment measures they took slowed the spread and saved a huge number of lives by allowing time to prep, supply surplus resources, and spreading the load on the system to avoid stress points. But the picture coming out of China is of actual containment whereas what we should be seeing is a slow progression to infecting everyone it’s going to infect and then dying down like a normal pandemic. Slowing the spread of a wildfire should still result in us seeing a bigger wildfire.
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Starting tomorrow our division is being asked to work from home, possibly indefinitely. Sounds like we are following the trend of a lot of workplaces in the area
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On March 12 2020 22:48 Elroi wrote:I wonder if it's because of the communion that the churches seem to have been hit so hard by the disease. TLDR: In South Korea one patient, "Patient 31", managed to infect an absurd amount of people in very short time. She was in a car accident, was hospitalized, and then went to two church services.
This is what doesn't make sense to me. Why are we not seeing this in the US? I hear about cases like in SK where someone seemingly infected every single person they even kind of touched. In the US? Just a few cases here and there, no real escalation, no quarantine, just an illness that doesn't seem to spread much.
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Because not everyone who needs a test gets one. When you have no idea, there is nothing to report.
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It’s only a matter of time Mohdoo, our lack of testing capability and the relatively lengthy onset of symptoms are playing games with how people attempt to manage expectations during a crisis.
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On March 13 2020 01:01 Mohdoo wrote:Show nested quote +On March 12 2020 22:48 Elroi wrote:I wonder if it's because of the communion that the churches seem to have been hit so hard by the disease. TLDR: In South Korea one patient, "Patient 31", managed to infect an absurd amount of people in very short time. She was in a car accident, was hospitalized, and then went to two church services. This is what doesn't make sense to me. Why are we not seeing this in the US? I hear about cases like in SK where someone seemingly infected every single person they even kind of touched. In the US? Just a few cases here and there, no real escalation, no quarantine, just an illness that doesn't seem to spread much.
SK has been incredibly on top of tracking down the interactions of the infected, and testing / quarantining people who may be at risk of infection. They're taking it much, much more seriously than any Western countries.
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United Kingdom13775 Posts
On March 13 2020 00:38 KwarK wrote:
Given how infectious it is a struggle to believe that China isn’t experiencing a steady exponential increase in new cases. I’ll absolutely believe that the drastic containment measures they took slowed the spread and saved a huge number of lives by allowing time to prep, supply surplus resources, and spreading the load on the system to avoid stress points. But the picture coming out of China is of actual containment whereas what we should be seeing is a slow progression to infecting everyone it’s going to infect and then dying down like a normal pandemic. Slowing the spread of a wildfire should still result in us seeing a bigger wildfire.
I agree, something doesn’t add up. I suspect they did something like not reporting cases that aren’t hospital-admitted. Even if the containment has been largely successful, which I could believe, it won’t stop things so dramatically.
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My guess is that China has slowed the virus to a gradual burn and they are now ratcheting up the information war to try and stick other countries with some level of blame for the ensuing global downturn.
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On March 12 2020 20:44 Nouar wrote:Show nested quote +On March 12 2020 16:08 Slydie wrote:On March 12 2020 14:18 Nyxisto wrote:On March 12 2020 13:56 REDBLUEGREEN wrote:On March 12 2020 13:37 evilfatsh1t wrote:
i for one completely agree that its completely irrational to actively shutdown society and tank the global economy. deciding to negatively impact the livelihood of literally everyone alive on the planet in order to prevent a small percentage of people from contracting a virus that kills an even smaller percentage of people is stupid.
From current data COVID is both more infectious and deadlier than the Spanish Flu that killed 18-50 million of a world population of 1.9 billion back then. More importantly 20% of cases require hospitalization and once the healthcare system is overwhelmed (already happening in Italy with 12k cases) the fatality rate could quickly rise from the current global 3.5% to something between 3.5 and 20%. Merkel, as the first politician I saw, finally reflected expert opinion and said this virus could infect 60-70% of Germans. The number won't be much different for other countries. You can calculate yourself with a CFR of 3.5% what this means... You have your data wrong by a magnitude. The Spanish flu killed about 10-20% of the people it infected. This virus has killed about 3% in strongly overwhelmed regions like Hubei or North Italy and appears to kill about ~0.7% or so of people in regions with adequate healthcare. The risk profile is also different in that the Spanish flu killed people with healthy immune systems due to causing cytokine syndrome. On the infectiousness, it's not quite clear but according to the latest WHO reports the main route of infection for covid-19 is symptomatic people which would be a relatively good sign. Not to mention that comparing to pandemies a 100 years ago is irrelevant. The last time I checked, the deathrate of those infected was already below 1%, and I believe it will be way under 0,5 when it is all said and done. It is still higher than a normal flu, but not enough to warrant these drastic measures. I have flashbacks to when the volcano on Iceland put every plane in Europe on the ground, but it proved to be for nothing as the ash did not stop the engines as feared. Old and sick people die from infections all the time, Corona virus or anything else. I am sick of this panic! How you can reach <1% deathrate with 120000 known infected and around 60k healed, and 4000+ deaths is beyond me. Don't extrapolate on what we don't know (non-detected infections) please.
in the current situation with covid-19...
people who claim certain knowledge in reality know nothing.
people who know a lot include the caveat that their knowledge is far less than certain.
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On March 13 2020 01:08 Salazarz wrote:Show nested quote +On March 13 2020 01:01 Mohdoo wrote:On March 12 2020 22:48 Elroi wrote:I wonder if it's because of the communion that the churches seem to have been hit so hard by the disease. TLDR: In South Korea one patient, "Patient 31", managed to infect an absurd amount of people in very short time. She was in a car accident, was hospitalized, and then went to two church services. This is what doesn't make sense to me. Why are we not seeing this in the US? I hear about cases like in SK where someone seemingly infected every single person they even kind of touched. In the US? Just a few cases here and there, no real escalation, no quarantine, just an illness that doesn't seem to spread much. SK has been incredibly on top of tracking down the interactions of the infected, and testing / quarantining people who may be at risk of infection. They're taking it much, much more seriously than any Western countries.
So is it obvious to you guys that a ton of people have it? Or is it that you guys know a bunch of people technically have it, but don't show symptoms or just assumed it was a common cold?
I suppose my main assumption has been that all these cases are people who are going to hospitals and that they then realize its Corona. Is that not the case? Are a bunch of Korean cases pretty low impact? They are just doing a really good job at tracking, so they even know the Corona cases that aren't very bad?
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On March 13 2020 01:01 Mohdoo wrote:Show nested quote +On March 12 2020 22:48 Elroi wrote:I wonder if it's because of the communion that the churches seem to have been hit so hard by the disease. TLDR: In South Korea one patient, "Patient 31", managed to infect an absurd amount of people in very short time. She was in a car accident, was hospitalized, and then went to two church services. This is what doesn't make sense to me. Why are we not seeing this in the US? I hear about cases like in SK where someone seemingly infected every single person they even kind of touched. In the US? Just a few cases here and there, no real escalation, no quarantine, just an illness that doesn't seem to spread much. Either the US is a completely unique case. Or its like everywhere else but just not being discovered.
Hence the comments by officials that thousands are likely infected already. And because the infected are not being found its going to spread to 10's of thousands.
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On March 13 2020 01:28 Gorsameth wrote:Show nested quote +On March 13 2020 01:01 Mohdoo wrote:On March 12 2020 22:48 Elroi wrote:I wonder if it's because of the communion that the churches seem to have been hit so hard by the disease. TLDR: In South Korea one patient, "Patient 31", managed to infect an absurd amount of people in very short time. She was in a car accident, was hospitalized, and then went to two church services. This is what doesn't make sense to me. Why are we not seeing this in the US? I hear about cases like in SK where someone seemingly infected every single person they even kind of touched. In the US? Just a few cases here and there, no real escalation, no quarantine, just an illness that doesn't seem to spread much. Either the US is a completely unique case. Or its like everywhere else but just not being discovered. Hence the comments by officials that thousands are likely infected already. And because the infected are not being found its going to spread to 10's of thousands.
US has almost no publicly-accessible means of testing at an affordable price, with no infrastructure in sight. There are a few cases in CT right now and I know people who know the infected, and they say they are being stonewalled when it comes to finding access to tests. What good does the system do if they only test "certain individuals who are exhibiting signs of corona"? Wouldn't it be more beneficial to have widespread testing and quarantining positives?
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EPT
