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Any and all updates regarding the COVID-19 will need a source provided. Please do your part in helping us to keep this thread maintainable and under control.
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Added a disclaimer on page 662. Many need to post better. |
On March 12 2020 14:18 JimmyJRaynor wrote:
Conclusion: if you have a fever stay away from your great grandparents and grandparents and any one who has cardio vascular issues. You don't have to worry about staying away from young children. Young children are not dying from covid-19.
Wouldn't even toddlers be spreaders?
Dying is over thing, being a vector the other. To be, your conclusion seems flawed in this aspect.
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On March 12 2020 14:18 Nyxisto wrote:Show nested quote +On March 12 2020 13:56 REDBLUEGREEN wrote:On March 12 2020 13:37 evilfatsh1t wrote:
i for one completely agree that its completely irrational to actively shutdown society and tank the global economy. deciding to negatively impact the livelihood of literally everyone alive on the planet in order to prevent a small percentage of people from contracting a virus that kills an even smaller percentage of people is stupid.
From current data COVID is both more infectious and deadlier than the Spanish Flu that killed 18-50 million of a world population of 1.9 billion back then. More importantly 20% of cases require hospitalization and once the healthcare system is overwhelmed (already happening in Italy with 12k cases) the fatality rate could quickly rise from the current global 3.5% to something between 3.5 and 20%. Merkel, as the first politician I saw, finally reflected expert opinion and said this virus could infect 60-70% of Germans. The number won't be much different for other countries. You can calculate yourself with a CFR of 3.5% what this means... You have your data wrong by a magnitude. The Spanish flu killed about 10-20% of the people it infected. This virus has killed about 3% in strongly overwhelmed regions like Hubei or North Italy and appears to kill about ~0.7% or so of people in regions with adequate healthcare. The risk profile is also different in that the Spanish flu killed people with healthy immune systems due to causing cytokine syndrome. On the infectiousness, it's not quite clear but according to the latest WHO reports the main route of infection for covid-19 is symptomatic people which would be a relatively good sign.
Not to mention that comparing to pandemies a 100 years ago is irrelevant.
The last time I checked, the deathrate of those infected was already below 1%, and I believe it will be way under 0,5 when it is all said and done. It is still higher than a normal flu, but not enough to warrant these drastic measures. I have flashbacks to when the volcano on Iceland put every plane in Europe on the ground, but it proved to be for nothing as the ash did not stop the engines as feared.
Old and sick people die from infections all the time, Corona virus or anything else. I am sick of this panic!
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Russian Federation2 Posts
I think that the hysteria surrounding the virus is a cover for the trade wars of major players.
but the abolition of sporting events against this background is depressing
https://rodrigolascivo.com
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On March 12 2020 16:08 Slydie wrote:Show nested quote +On March 12 2020 14:18 Nyxisto wrote:On March 12 2020 13:56 REDBLUEGREEN wrote:On March 12 2020 13:37 evilfatsh1t wrote:
i for one completely agree that its completely irrational to actively shutdown society and tank the global economy. deciding to negatively impact the livelihood of literally everyone alive on the planet in order to prevent a small percentage of people from contracting a virus that kills an even smaller percentage of people is stupid.
From current data COVID is both more infectious and deadlier than the Spanish Flu that killed 18-50 million of a world population of 1.9 billion back then. More importantly 20% of cases require hospitalization and once the healthcare system is overwhelmed (already happening in Italy with 12k cases) the fatality rate could quickly rise from the current global 3.5% to something between 3.5 and 20%. Merkel, as the first politician I saw, finally reflected expert opinion and said this virus could infect 60-70% of Germans. The number won't be much different for other countries. You can calculate yourself with a CFR of 3.5% what this means... You have your data wrong by a magnitude. The Spanish flu killed about 10-20% of the people it infected. This virus has killed about 3% in strongly overwhelmed regions like Hubei or North Italy and appears to kill about ~0.7% or so of people in regions with adequate healthcare. The risk profile is also different in that the Spanish flu killed people with healthy immune systems due to causing cytokine syndrome. On the infectiousness, it's not quite clear but according to the latest WHO reports the main route of infection for covid-19 is symptomatic people which would be a relatively good sign. Not to mention that comparing to pandemies a 100 years ago is irrelevant. The last time I checked, the deathrate of those infected was already below 1%, and I believe it will be way under 0,5 when it is all said and done. It is still higher than a normal flu, but not enough to warrant these drastic measures. I have flashbacks to when the volcano on Iceland put every plane in Europe on the ground, but it proved to be for nothing as the ash did not stop the engines as feared. Old and sick people die from infections all the time, Corona virus or anything else. I am sick of this panic!
It's much preferable to overreact and in the end growl a bit about how the measures were too much, then ending up with a situation such as in Italy right now, where doctors have to decide who to let die cuz the system is overloaded.
I would be a lot more confident if our medical infrastructure was better, but tough luck, it isnt. So best case scenario is to contain it as much as possible
Here s a data-scientist friend of mine who made (imo) very easily understandable models. It starts off a bit boring, cuz he uses just 2 variables, and then adds more with each new run of the model (you can skip the first 20 minutes).
https://www.facebook.com/csaladenes/videos/3176565032377031/
Point is, most of these variables cannot be heavily influenced by us (susceptability, infectiousness etc) but contact-frequency can, so that s your best bet.
Hats off to Singapore, Germany and other countries who're dealing with this very well, wish every country was that well prepared.
Alas, if it starts seriously spreading in my countries (Romania, Hungary) the healthcare infrastucture has 0 chance to cope with tens of thousand+ cases.
In Hungary universities closed and sports events were suspended, but schools arent. The gov is saying that it's not dangerous for children, so there's no point in closing the schools.
I guess they dont mind if the kids spread it forward.
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So the Stuttgarter Frühlingsfest was officially canceled (spring version of Oktoberfest)
This is a huge blow for thousands of people because this means almost 50% of their years revenue is not happening (the other almost 50% beeing the Wasen/ Wiesn/ Oktoberfest) and many will go broke.
Euro 2020 still planned though.
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It's much preferable to overreact and in the end growl a bit about how the measures were too much, then ending up with a situation such as in Italy right now, where doctors have to decide who to let die cuz the system is overloaded.
I disagree, and how overloaded the doctors are can be debated.
-There has only been reported strain in a certain area with many cases.
-If the treatment was more in line with what is normal when treating flu, there would be on strain, but if every case is treated as death threat and lots of people are put in quarantine, the story is very different...
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What? The Italian system is being strained despite their best efforts to contain this. How would their situation improve if they let it run rampant and only treat like the flu? Or are you advocating to let the weak simply die so that the rest can go on?
Also, how come you know more about this virus as the medical experts of Italy? You might disagree with the priorities of the government but maybe don't try to dispute their scientific findings with your opinion.
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Yeah I mean if you want to see what a more relaxed approach looks like, Italy is right there and it's not exactly pretty.
Those encouraging statistics you quoted are encouraging precisely because they're dominated by countries with aggressive measures that are keeping cases in the range their healthcare systems can manage.
3% might even be optimistic in an uncontrolled outbreak, and 3% is a huge number already.
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On March 12 2020 14:18 Nyxisto wrote:
This virus has killed about 3% in strongly overwhelmed regions like Hubei or North Italy and appears to kill about ~0.7% or so of people in regions with adequate healthcare.
Italy has a better healthcare than 99% of the countries in the world...
Anyway, there were already 4 coronavirus with a 0.8% mortality rate circulating in Europe. This one has a 1.3% mortality rate without targeted treatments. And they found chloroquine is very efficient anyway.
Source in French because I can't be bothered to search a serious article in English through all the bullshit flying around :
+ Show Spoiler +
The dude speaking : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Didier_Raoult
Didier Raoult [...] holds MD and Ph.D. degrees and specializes in infectious diseases.
According to the Thomson Reuters source "Highly Cited Researchers List", Didier Raoult is among the most influential researchers in his field and his publications are among the 1% most consulted in academic journals
He predicts there won't be a noticeable increase of deaths due to respiratory infection this year.
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In Latvia we've went from 1 to 6, to 10, to 16 infected within some 3 days.
The only thing our goverment does if you're infected is send you back home and make you promise that you won't go out for 14 days.
It's going to get way worse very soon.
So far nothing is closed, other than one university that has cancelled all their lectures(This university teaches people to become doctors).
Many international companies are taking it seriously and preparing to get people to work from home, but other than that, other companies or the people at large are not taking it seriously enough and the goverment's reaction so far has only been recommendations to not travel to certain countries (no prohibitions though).
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On March 12 2020 14:18 JimmyJRaynor wrote:Show nested quote +On March 12 2020 13:56 REDBLUEGREEN wrote:On March 12 2020 13:37 evilfatsh1t wrote:
i for one completely agree that its completely irrational to actively shutdown society and tank the global economy. deciding to negatively impact the livelihood of literally everyone alive on the planet in order to prevent a small percentage of people from contracting a virus that kills an even smaller percentage of people is stupid.
From current data COVID is both more infectious and deadlier than the Spanish Flu that killed 18-50 million of a world population of 1.9 billion back then. More importantly 20% of cases require hospitalization and once the healthcare system is overwhelmed (already happening in Italy with 12k cases) the fatality rate could quickly rise from the current global 3.5% to something between 3.5 and 20%. Merkel, as the first politician I saw, finally reflected expert opinion and said this virus could infect 60-70% of Germans. The number won't be much different for other countries. You can calculate yourself with a CFR of 3.5% what this means... I question if there is any reliable estimates of the death rate at this early stage. https://www.bbc.com/news/health-51674743![[image loading]](https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/581F/production/_111095522_deaths_in_china_v2_x2_640-nc.png) According to the immunologist that works in the lab my mom runs ... she states with a low degree of confidence that it'll kill ~50,000 people in the USA and it is already too late to try and put the toothpaste back in the tube. She says anyone claiming to have good confidence in a death rate is full of shit. She says anyone claiming to have high confidence that the the current measures being undertaken will lower the # of deaths is just role playing or is in the "a little bit of knowledge is dangerous" territory. By way of comparison the swine flu killed up to 17,000 in the USA in 2010. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-flu-usa/swine-flu-has-killed-up-to-17000-in-u-s-report-idUSN1223579720100212 My little informal chat with her rather mirrors the BBC article in the lack of confidence in any estimates of death rates and a lack of confidence in future predictions. If you have no pre-existing health issue your probability of death is very, very low relative to people with health problems. People with cardiovascular issues are the most vulnerable. ![[image loading]](https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/56E0/production/_111104222_death_ratio_v2640-nc.png) Conclusion: if you have a fever stay away from your great grandparents and grandparents and any one who has cardio vascular issues. You don't have to worry about staying away from young children. Young children are not dying from covid-19.
No,you should stay away from ANYONE.
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My Company has prepared to enable Homeoffice for ~30% of its employes. I had to test working from home yesterday which was very fine with me. Before this corona stuff my Company had a strict "no home office" Policy for anyone but high management and even for those it wasn't to work for home but to be able to do stuff when travelling to meetings and so on.
Companies take this stuff very serious.
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I'm lucky to currently be able to write my thesis from home, 2 month deadline now. But Norway is now contemplating shutting down schools and kindergardens, and if my 20 month old daughter is home, there will be no time for thesis work, and that'll surely suck.
I feel for all the self-employed people, who's been told that they have to bear the economical burden themselves. Gyms and stores having to shut down, everyone involved in sports or culture.
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New guidelines from my employer (Government) on how to deal with Corona:
- I can now work 3 days/week from home instead of 2, more can be requested from the department head
- All non-essential work travel has been cancelled, RIP my trip to Slovenia for a conference
Working from home 1 extra day seems like a rather half-arsed measure, but something is better than nothing I guess.
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This seems ridiculous.
You either do home office or you don't. Whats the point of it if you still meet the people just a day later?
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In Sweden the government has removed the cost first the first day when people get sick, so that they shouldnt go to work sick just because they need the money (the first day cost a lot of money, especially if you dont have a stable economy). The government here also are seeing how to they can solve the economical problems that occurs from this situation.
So far the information has been good I think, very professional, which can be seen how people react and talk. No panic or hysteria. At least when it comes to the public service channels and the like. In forums, social media etc. its as usual with a lot more people who suddenly knows everything about everything (more often than not the same people who thinks Greta Thunberg is a demon and who thinks people with darker skin should be eradicated from earth as well as describing the situation in sweden to be the worst in human history...)
Right now most focus is to prevent a high peak of ill people and let the health care system work in a manageable pressure, so more and more companies and work places are more and more generous with working from home etc.
The upcoming day I think we will see more gyms closing down, as well as events. So far public events with more people than 500 are "forbidden" and one gym chain has closed down.
I guess this will be the case for a month or two or so then things will start to stabilize.
Personally I think this might be good for the future. To see how countries can improve the systems for situations like this.
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I recommend that everyone take this seriously and follow the advice of health professionals as much as possible, regardless of locale.
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On March 12 2020 13:56 REDBLUEGREEN wrote:Show nested quote +On March 12 2020 13:37 evilfatsh1t wrote:
i for one completely agree that its completely irrational to actively shutdown society and tank the global economy. deciding to negatively impact the livelihood of literally everyone alive on the planet in order to prevent a small percentage of people from contracting a virus that kills an even smaller percentage of people is stupid.
From current data COVID is both more infectious and deadlier than the Spanish Flu that killed 18-50 million of a world population of 1.9 billion back then
"this thread isnt for fearmongering".
Meanwhile this comment hasn't even been warned for giving false info :D
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On March 12 2020 20:25 farvacola wrote:
I recommend that everyone take this seriously and follow the advice of health professionals as much as possible, regardless of locale.
Not sure what to do with this for workers I organize with in WA. Gov said there's probably hundreds of thousands of people infected, the free/accessible testing is not existent, no relief for mortgages/rent and other bills (student loans, credit cards, phones, and internet for example) so people have to keep working whether they are coughing or not. A lot are at risk of not having work to go to as well.
Masks for those that can get them, and the hygiene stuff is what they are doing, some are going without masks to avoid suspicion. Lots of muffled and sneaky coughing on public transport in general as well.
Still getting worse here as far as I can tell. Won't be surprised if we look more like Italy does now in WA in a month or two.
Gas station attendants are almost all wearing gloves now anecdotally speaking
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Folks unable to self-quarantine need to simply do their best to minimize contact and spread. I expect a paid sick leave bill will be coming out in a day or two, and consensus is starting to build around a disaster relief fund that will fund access to testing.
In the meantime, it is correct to point out that we are reaping what we sow (and by we, I mean those that have power) in terms of shitty healthcare and safety net, no doubt about it. Folks still unconvinced of the severity of all this are in for awful surprise after awful surprise.
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EPT
