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On April 30 2019 08:17 JimmiC wrote:
They were the top stories I didnt dig deep into the source because there is many articles from many sources about the Russian military personnel in Venezuela. The other story is a far better read and goes into much detail about whats going on in the country the military one was more for interest sake about what the Russians who were flown in might be up too.
What part do you disagree with? That Russian military personal is there? That Maduro is spending on military instead of healthcare? Or the specific anti aircraft stuff?
If its the last one, great it really does not matter to me. If it is the other points Im happy to dig up other sources you might prefer.
I did not dig deep because I didnt think it was controversial that the Russains were there or that Maduro was spending on the military while healthcare among other far more important things are failing.
I was curious the context in which you were posting US government propaganda (imo) and whether you were taking a position on if that's what you were doing.
My main curiosity was about your summary and whether it was supported
Russian personal that flew in have been identified as experts in getting the old Venezuelan Russia anti air missiles up and working
Granted I wouldn't be surprised, it lends itself towards the Bay of Pigs scenario I've described previously, that I would hope to avoid and I obviously don't trust VOA as a source. Additionally I've told you my opinion on anonymous sourcing.
+ Show Spoiler +On April 16 2019 15:55 GreenHorizons wrote:That CNN article is effectively stenography for an anonymous "defense official" (with no ethical explanation) for why they are anonymous. Can't be sure it was even the same meeting or not something completely different or whether this anonymous "defense official" has any clue. To the article itself and "deterrence" Show nested quote +Instead, deterrence options could include US naval exercises in the immediate region to emphasize humanitarian assistance and more military interaction with neighboring countries. The idea would be to challenge any Russian, Cuban or Chinese notion that they could have unchallenged access to the region. I would hope after Iraq (anon officials doing this same thing), or more regionally applicable Cuba (bay of pigs/Missile crisis), we don't go down this road again. Or put any faith in Mike Pompeo, John Bolton, Elliot Abrams and the Trump administration to not be horrific war criminals (some not for the first time). EDIT: For those unfamiliar with anonymous sourcing ethics, here's the Society of Professional Journalists (SPJ) on it: Show nested quote +– Consider sources’ motives before promising anonymity. Reserve anonymity for sources who may face danger, retribution or other harm, and have information that cannot be obtained elsewhere. Explain why anonymity was granted. Here's a primer on how to read anonymously sourced stories from 538 (prompted in part by CNN's history with unethical reporting, but before the Lanny Davis one) When To Trust A Story That Uses Unnamed SourcesShow nested quote + journalists themselves also say the practice is overused. They argue that using unnamed sources limits journalistic accountability, since readers and other reporters can’t easily check the accuracy of an account if they don’t know where it comes from. Unnamed sources are often a feature of stories that I would argue are more about reporters showing how savvy and in the know they are than truly informing and enlightening readers. These are some of the reasons I find GrayZone to be a far more reliable source on this topic in general, though still imperfect of course.
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On April 30 2019 10:29 JimmiC wrote:
I agree Maduro is fearful of invasion, just as he is of a uprising. Id just rather he spent that money on the health of his people that would also reduce the chances of both.
But I'm glad we still agree on the other things.
wut?
My question was about VOA and your summary of their US government sponsored propaganda (still unclear if you consider it reporting?)?
Just to be clear do you think that if Maduro had every corrupt person in his government executed tomorrow and turned the economy around while dramatically improving the quality of life for his people that the US wouldn't want to replace him anymore?
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On April 30 2019 11:36 JimmiC wrote:
I consider it reporting the same way I consider Venezuelananalysis.com reporting, with a grain of salt. If it is completely different than everything else there is probably some issues if it very similar it is probably the same. I'm glad though now that you see that there can be problems with this type of reporting that you didn't in our earlier discussions.
Well you have a problem. Because you don't have supporting evidence that Venezuelanalysis.com is funded by Maduro where as there's no denying that VOA is funded by the government it was created by to promote the same government around the world.
So you're free to consider them essentially the same, but you don't have (or haven't presented) evidence to support that.
There's certainly problems with you presenting that VOA article and your summary, but they aren't at all the same as me posting an article from VA with actual sources and facts vs whatever your summary of that VOA stuff was.
If it is completely different than everything else there is probably some issues if it very similar it is probably the same.
This has already led you to spread the rumor/conspiracy Chavez's daughter has billions stashed in Europe because a lot of people repeated it and you cruised her instagram (and she lived in the presidential palace still after her father [the president] died).
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On April 30 2019 13:03 JimmiC wrote:
Yes I do I showed it before and I can look it up again if you like. Its odd because the actual website says that they are completely independently funded free from any money from governments and then the founder is quoted saying that he receives some money from the government. To me that looks like you are trying to hide something which screams propaganda.
The VOA clearly states that it is funded by the government. And then allows you to make your own conclusions.
Now it could also be true that they stopped receiving funding at some point and now it is an independent news source that just really really support Maduro, I mean Gregory Wilpert is known as one of the most important chavista's. If it was Chavez in control I would buy loyalty because Chavez was able to get that. Maduro only seems to be able to get loyalty through intimidation and bribery.
But I'm not going to take the time to go through it again because anything I find will just be US propaganda trying to keep me from seeing the truth or whatever you think.
The strangest thing about this conversation is you are not disputing the Russian's or the health care I'm not even sure what you are attacking. Me I guess? This is the way you operate, you dodge any way possible that throw out some fallacy.
Like right now are you saying that you believe Chavez daughters are not wealthy? Gh "No I never said that, I'm only saying blah blah .... the US did it"
I haven't seen anything other than your allegations/conspiracy theory and the fact that they openly admitted that they did receive funding from Chavez (not Maduro) and don't anymore.
Regardless of your repeated posting of speciously supported reports from VOA and CNN, you still haven't explained how your summary of that VOA article was supported at all, even by the article itself.
Are you retracting it?
Like right now are you saying that you believe Chavez daughters are not wealthy? Gh "No I never said that, I'm only saying blah blah .... the US did it"
You said that Chavez daughter was a billionaire as a fact and I said you're spreading conspiracy/rumors. It was confirmed that's what you did.
I have no idea if she's personally wealthy, doing "okay", lives off the kindness of fans of her father or what. My point is that you repeat things you hear without verifying/vetting them and I have repeatedly demonstrated it with clear examples. You accuse me of the same, and when confronted, repeatedly demonstrate you've fabricated the example from whole cloth.
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On April 30 2019 13:32 JimmiC wrote:
So your saying you cant prove shes not rich!
Yes. That's exactly why spreading the rumor she's got billions in Europe is irresponsible and I called it out as the rumor/conspiracy theory it was.
And no I said ok maybe shes not a billionaire but she sure lives like one. And found articles talking about much a day the palace she refused to leave cost the people. Unlike you I admit shit. Lol
To which I asked how you got that and you showed an instagram pic with her holding like $40 and jpg to (presumably) a dailymail article (that I don't think you ever actually linked) talking about a vacation that fits in the budget CNBC said "can feel avg".
Retracting what? That the Russian personnel were fixing aged anti air shit, sure it could be propaganda
This is what I'm talking about when I say clear examples of you spreading rumor because you repeat things without any critical analysis.
had they even been identified?
Notice how I address your entire post not just take one sentence out and attack it.
I tried that for a while and you kept wildly distorting or fabricating my positions. Remember when I confronted you on the thing I had to try to correct you on 5 separate times?
I can address the rumor spreading without engaging with the other stuff that would go nowhere as I demonstrated.
I only use the snippets so it's clear which rumors/arguments I'm addressing and you so much as it matters people are able to clearly assess the source and reliability of the information you provide about a conflict no one but us are really addressing.
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On April 30 2019 13:52 JimmiC wrote:
GH weve done so much talking about my thoughts we should do yours. What sort of talks should be held? Who should be at them? What issues should be on the table? One concessions should be made from both sides?
I've told you so many times
+ Show Spoiler +On April 28 2019 08:55 GreenHorizons wrote:Show nested quote +On April 28 2019 08:47 JimmiC wrote:
Unless it is that you think that right now Russia, China and Turkey are not making huge money and are the ones who lose with a change. The Venezuelan people can't lose they are getting anything right now.
The options are not US and the world or nothing. It is US and the democratic world or Russia, China Turkey.
If you do not see the second point let me know and I can post a bunch of information about how those countries are invested in Venezuela and what they might lose/stop making if Guaido. Part of the corruption is funneling money to them away from the people as well. I'm sure you don't think these countries are supporting Maduro out of the goodness of their hearts. ...bro... I've said multiple times that the best course for the Venezuelan people from here is for talks to resume with the opposition (sans Guaido probably, regardless of his merit), aid to increase through existing channels, and try to get back to the world class level of elections Chavez won imo. Show nested quote +Although some people have criticized the result—which is Hugo Chavez having won—there’s no doubt in our mind, having monitored very closely the election process, that he won fairly and squarely. As a matter of fact, of the 92 elections that we’ve monitored, I would say that the election process in Venezuela is the best in the world. — Jimmy Carter Show nested quote +So if Guaido is not the US why do you act like if he becomes the intern leader the US now controls Venezuela. The only way this make sense is if you think Guaido is completely under the control of the US and doing exactly what the US wants. I don't think that. I think that Guaido's hopes rest entirely on his support from the US. If the US says, "we no longer recognize Guaido as the interim president" the "coup" or "revolution" is practically dead (if it isn't already) and Guaido probably is too. People are free to draw their own conclusions to what level of loyalty that may get the US from Guaido. Show nested quote +On April 28 2019 08:58 JimmiC wrote:
Maduro is willing to have talks as long as nothing is on the table. Guaido is willing to have talks as long as everything is on the table. I don't think what your saying is possible and I don't see how that is any different than the status quo or why you think Guaido's position of wanting things on the table to talk matters.
Do you think Trumps talks with NK were productive? I don't, because nothing was on the table from the side of NK, same here.
Maduro has in fact put several things (parliamentary elections) on the table (though perhaps not everything his opponents want). I don't even want to touch NK but if the question is the status quo better than the US trying to forcefully remove the leader of NK (with a native or not) I'd obviously say the status quo + negotiations (obviously Trump is a moron that shouldn't be trusted with negotiations, let alone regime change).
Also please don't repeat the "I still don't know your opinion because I continually get it wrong and for some reason you won't say. "no I don't think that I think this"." thing I already addressed.
+ Show Spoiler +On April 28 2019 09:21 GreenHorizons wrote:Show nested quote +On April 28 2019 09:17 JimmiC wrote:
No I still don't know your opinion because I continually get it wrong and for some reason you won't say. "no I don't think that I think this".
I literally just did exactly that. Show nested quote +I don't think that. I think that Guaido's hopes rest entirely on his support from the US. If the US says, "we no longer recognize Guaido as the interim president" the "coup" or "revolution" is practically dead (if it isn't already) and Guaido probably is too. People are free to draw their own conclusions to what level of loyalty that may get the US from Guaido. I think this definitively proves the reason you "don't know [my] opinion" & "continually get it wrong" is not what you think it is. Show nested quote +But you did give a semi opinion that you think they should engage in talks. Or you know retain the status quo (since Maduro has said he won't change) like I suggested you said but you say you don't. There's going to be another election. The quality of the election will be determined by the path we take from here. While I don't share your optimism that there was a path for Guaido to get to one (or still is) I understand your position. My position is that Guaido is generally a lost cause at this point and that the best case scenario for the people of Venezuela is international talks and aid through existing channels while working internationally to ensure through diplomatic means we get as close to the elections we agree were notoriously legitimate as possible. I accept that maybe waiting until Maduro is dying of old age (while doing the best we can with those other things) is the best that can be done.
I think this definitively proves the reason you "don't know [my] opinion" & "continually get it wrong" is not what you think it is.
I think these most recent posts stands as damning evidence the reason is something about your arguments, not me or mine.
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On April 29 2019 22:02 JimmiC wrote:Show nested quote +On April 29 2019 16:17 xM(Z wrote:On April 28 2019 22:22 JimmiC wrote:Sorry if you read what I said 3 million are living in tents. I said 3 million fleed many are living in tents. And I asked if any romanians are. I suspect that answer is zero or almost 0 showing that your example is flawed. I was not trying to get you emotional I was showing the stark difference between your examples. Secondly unless it is not true Romania is a democracy so when you don't like your government you have the opportunity to vote a new one in. According to the democracy index Romania is ( http://www.eiu.com/Handlers/WhitepaperHandler.ashx?fi=Democracy_Index_2018.pdf&mode=wp&campaignid=Democracy2018 ) Venezuela on the other hand is not even a hybrid regime, it is Authoritarian. And if the Freedom report is at all accurate they will score even lower when the 2019 report comes out. https://freedomhouse.org/sites/default/files/Feb2019_FH_FITW_2019_Report_ForWeb-compressed.pdfWhat you are saying about yhe fleeing is not all wrong. It is just leaving out the major points of mismanagement, (oil production is below ww2 levels and that had almost nothing to so with production) corruption, the gangs controlling much to ensure loyalty, authoratarianism, so on. But the factors you point out are there as well. Many oil based economies are struggling, none like this. Ive seen mthat video before and read many articles on the downfall. Also talk to many Venezuelans about it. You really are just looking for things to prove your point imstead of looking for answers. And that my friend is called confirmation bias. Yes Im also worried about the poor people that support Maduro. They are buying his BS that he isnt the reason they are starving. They will do just as much better when he is gone. I am not worried about those few but powerful living the highlife off corruption amd niether should you. The differnce between us is you are making assumptions based off generalities. Im trying to discuss what is actually happening. well there probably are romanians living in tents, the ethnic-romas. i'm fairly positive you could find some somewhere(they bulldozed a roma camp in France last year if i remember correctly) but it wasn't my intention to assert that romanian expats are worse or in the same boat, just that numbers are relative and 3 mil doesn't warrant starting a war over(nor your reaction on this topic for that matter); so to clear any lingering confusions: the people leaving Venezuela are worse, much worse now. i'm not trying to prove anyones' point, just trying to remove the emotional baggage and propaganda out of the argument as much as possible. Maduro looks like someone that is just perpetuating the inherited status quo(or making it worse) but ... i'll try to catch up on your progress with GH, if any, and add some words later. you started to look reasonable/able to accept inputs(to me at least) now. + Show Spoiler +...beginning with a deconstruction of the construct into a comprehensive set of basic component processes, followed by a complementary reconstruction from which a scientifically tractable concept of theory of mind could be recovered; i'd say we're(i'm including your arguments with GH here too) in the second phase Out of curiosity why do keep saying start a war? Who do you think is starting one? And why do you think I want one? Perhaps that is where we went wrong? it's based on the geopolitical realities of today. US is using/trying to use Venezuela in its trade war with China and its turf war with Russia. if US succeeds in putting Guaido president, Venezuela won't pay the debt owed to them.
the days in which US hegemony, its liberal international order/Pax Americana, allowed it to fuck up countries unchallenged/on a whim, have long since past. historics and sociologists put its peak somewhere in the '90s mid-90s.
compare Syria, Ukraine/Crimea, Libya, Yemen, or the conflicts in the African continent(Somalia, Kenya, Tunisia, Niger, Kenya, Tunisia, Cameroon, Mali, to name just a few) to the (mostly)unopposed Irak invasion(s); gruesome year long wars vs venividivici, then realize that the only thing that changed was the active support received by those states from some new, actually or wannabee, superpowers.
how do you envision Russia/China pulling out of Venezuela?(i mean russians are transporting military personnel and light weaponry as we speak, as evidenced earlier in the thread, also: Private military contractors who do secret missions for Russia flew into Venezuela in the past few days to beef up security for President Nicolas Maduro in the face of U.S.-backed opposition protests, according to two people close to them.
A third source close to the Russian contractors also told Reuters there was a contingent of them in Venezuela, but could not say when they arrived or what their role was.
...
The contractors are associated with the so-called Wagner group whose members, mostly ex-service personnel, fought clandestinely in support of Russian forces in Syria and Ukraine, according to Reuters interviews with dozens of contractors, their friends and relatives.
...
The contractors’ task in Venezuela was to protect Maduro from any attempt by opposition sympathizers in his own security forces to detain him, Shabayev said.
“Our people are there directly for his protection,” he said. from Reuters). there needs to be an understanding between the powers active there else nothing good will happen, but for that there needs to be some form of trust between them and there isn't any, or between them and a 3rd negotiating party but there is no 3rd party.
i don't think you want a war, nobody does, but there's no way you put Guaido up in the president seat without one or without what i wrote above happening.
(if you start talking about Maduro willingly accepting reelections or the 'will of the venezuelan people' here i'll just ... sorry but i don't have time for that given that i already failed to keep up with the latest spam).
as i've asked, tell me how would Guaido become president in your scenario?.
(you and GH are all over the place as if who's richer matters and also placing to much weigh on secondary geopolitical matters when more immediate/pressing ones are at stake).
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Under president Bolsonaro (his opposition was imprisoned for the election) unrest continues to grow as well as massive unemployment showing signs of increased instability and potential for regional chaos should the power dynamics of leaders (or the removal altogether of one) in the region change.
Brazil’s job market weakened in the first quarter, with 13.4 million people out of work and often forming massive lines to compete for precious few openings.
The jobless rate surged to 12.7 percent in the first three months of the year, its highest level in 10 months, the national statistics institute reported Tuesday. Economists expected the rate to rise to 12.9 percent, according to a Bloomberg survey.
With one quarter of Brazil’s work force either unemployed or underemployed, family consumption that has been the economy’s traditional growth engine is sputtering, and record-low interest rates are doing little to stimulate growth. Moreover, the weak job market is starting to hurt the popularity of President Jair Bolsonaro among the poor.
While unemployment has risen in the first quarter in each of the past seven years due to seasonal factors, economists don’t expect the rate to return to single-digits anytime soon. In March, the economy unexpectedly shed more than 43,000 formal jobs, whereas analysts expected a gain of 80,000 positions. The number of new positions -- in both the formal and informal sectors -- is only slightly higher than that of Brazilians entering the job market, according to Adriana Dupita, Bloomberg’s Latin America economist.
Desperate for Work
Brazilians are desperate to lock in a steady pay, which means new job offerings are often overwhelmed by a stampede of applicants. Last month, 15,000 people showed up to the first day of a job fair in Sao Paulo and formed a massive, snaking line to jockey for positions paying an average 1,500 reais ($380) per month, according to City Hall. That’s just slightly above the minimum wage.
Earlier this month, Sao Paulo supermarket chain Sonda Supermercados affixed two small, handwritten signs to the fence of the construction site for its new location, announcing it sought 160 employees. It was quickly inundated with more than 7,000 applications, many from people who were over-qualified and even held college degrees, according to Roberto Moreno, the company’s executive director.
www.bloomberg.com
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Does anyone have insight/info on the alleged coup attempt happening at the moment in Venezuela?
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On May 01 2019 01:28 Sjokola wrote:
Does anyone have insight/info on the alleged coup attempt happening at the moment in Venezuela?
This thread is mostly that (other than some of my posts). JimmiC offers you one perspective, I another.
my TLDR would be there's no hope (other than the one JimmiC argues) for Guaido to take power without massive bloodshed that likely results in chaos that quite likely spreads throughout the region based on the conditions on the ground like massive unemployment and gang/narco violence in neighboring countries.
That Guaido has been unable for months to secure funding from the IMF for his plans is essentially them (an overwhelming majority of nations) reaching a similar conclusion for months now.
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On May 01 2019 01:28 Sjokola wrote:
Does anyone have insight/info on the alleged coup attempt happening at the moment in Venezuela?
Hungry people standing up to their socialist dictator.
It is too early to tell, but without military support from outside, which doesn't seem to be happening, my hopes aren't too high.
There is a lovely clip of the army running over civilians with their vehicles.
It is too early to tell anything.
Edit: It is clear the military is split and some support Guaido's constitutional claim. How much is on each side is completely up to guess, with both sides claiming to have military support.
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On May 01 2019 01:41 GoTuNk! wrote:Show nested quote +On May 01 2019 01:28 Sjokola wrote:
Does anyone have insight/info on the alleged coup attempt happening at the moment in Venezuela? Hungry people standing up to their socialist dictator. It is too early to tell, but without military support from outside, which doesn't seem to be happening, my hopes aren't too high. There is a lovely clip of the army running over civilians with their vehicles.
It is too early to tell anything.
Correct me if I'm wrong but you've expressed support of US trained death squads in your own country?
EDIT: this link is more specific to US trained Death squads in Chile
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On May 01 2019 01:45 GreenHorizons wrote:Show nested quote +On May 01 2019 01:41 GoTuNk! wrote:On May 01 2019 01:28 Sjokola wrote:
Does anyone have insight/info on the alleged coup attempt happening at the moment in Venezuela? Hungry people standing up to their socialist dictator. It is too early to tell, but without military support from outside, which doesn't seem to be happening, my hopes aren't too high. There is a lovely clip of the army running over civilians with their vehicles. It is too early to tell anything. Correct me if I'm wrong but you've expressed support of US trained death squads in your own country?
No, I have not express support for anything, and you are nutjob who would stand by stalin murdering ukranian farmers and called it social justice if it someway hurt "the rich" in your twisted obsessed mind.
Please allow other human beings to discuss in this thread.
User was banned for this post.
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EPT
