South American Politics thread - Page 15

On April 28 2019 08:20 JimmiC wrote:
I'm not bad faith like you. I just honestly believe that is your belief. Correct me finish this sentence, feel free to turn it into a paragraph.

I believe Guaido is worse for the Venezuelan people than Maduro because....



Show me I was wrong.

On April 28 2019 08:39 JimmiC wrote:


First the bolded part I'm pretty sure that you mean that is what you have been doing to me. I have been asking you what you believe and then when you don't answer trying to guess.


Second, I don't think it is that complicated. I'm most interested what is best for the Venezuelan people is what is most important to me.

Third here is where we differ. I prefer to have the US and other various countries that would invest in Venezuela do so than Russia, China, Turkey, Syria and so on. My experience as a Canadian is while you guys your issues, Im pretty happy for Canada to be located where it is and not where say Ukraine or Tibet is. But I am not shocked by your position that it is worse for the world to be allowed in as long as includes the US.

Because again Guaido is not the US.

Because again Guaido is not the US

On April 28 2019 08:47 JimmiC wrote:
Unless it is that you think that right now Russia, China and Turkey are not making huge money and are the ones who lose with a change. The Venezuelan people can't lose they are getting anything right now.

The options are not US and the world or nothing. It is US and the democratic world or Russia, China Turkey.

If you do not see the second point let me know and I can post a bunch of information about how those countries are invested in Venezuela and what they might lose/stop making if Guaido. Part of the corruption is funneling money to them away from the people as well. I'm sure you don't think these countries are supporting Maduro out of the goodness of their hearts.

Although some people have criticized the result—which is Hugo Chavez having won—there’s no doubt in our mind, having monitored very closely the election process, that he won fairly and squarely. As a matter of fact, of the 92 elections that we’ve monitored, I would say that the election process in Venezuela is the best in the world. — Jimmy Carter

So if Guaido is not the US why do you act like if he becomes the intern leader the US now controls Venezuela. The only way this make sense is if you think Guaido is completely under the control of the US and doing exactly what the US wants.

On April 28 2019 08:58 JimmiC wrote:
Maduro is willing to have talks as long as nothing is on the table. Guaido is willing to have talks as long as everything is on the table. I don't think what your saying is possible and I don't see how that is any different than the status quo or why you think Guaido's position of wanting things on the table to talk matters.

Do you think Trumps talks with NK were productive? I don't, because nothing was on the table from the side of NK, same here.

Of course you are not willing to say your opinion, you are not willing to give any opinion because then you can sit back and say "no I didn't say that" as you hint whatever bullshit it is that you after but won't say. LOL

On April 28 2019 09:17 JimmiC wrote:
No I still don't know your opinion because I continually get it wrong and for some reason you won't say. "no I don't think that I think this".

I don't think that. I think that Guaido's hopes rest entirely on his support from the US. If the US says, "we no longer recognize Guaido as the interim president" the "coup" or "revolution" is practically dead (if it isn't already) and Guaido probably is too. People are free to draw their own conclusions to what level of loyalty that may get the US from Guaido.

But you did give a semi opinion that you think they should engage in talks. Or you know retain the status quo (since Maduro has said he won't change) like I suggested you said but you say you don't.

On April 28 2019 03:28 JimmiC wrote:



You are not helping me sir, come on now.

I have no idea what coming for you means?

Yes lots of people left Romania, I don't know why but that same amount has left Venezuela and there is hundreds of thousands of articles on why. Are many of the people who left Romania living in Refugee camps outside the border hoping to return? If so I hope there is some there working to change that.


I read it all my friend. Unlike you I don't just google what I believe to further that belief. I have also posted articles right from Maduro's own government funded website.

Perhaps if you are trying to communicate with someone, you should just do it. Instead of posting articles and quotes that now you say you don't agree with? It is all very confusing.

UNHCR, the UN Refugee Agency, and IOM, the UN Migration Agency, announced today that the number of refugees and migrants from Venezuela worldwide has now reached three million.

Appeal to emotion or argumentum ad passiones ("argument from passion") is a logical fallacy characterized by the manipulation of the recipient's emotions in order to win an argument, especially in the absence of factual evidence.[1] This kind of appeal to emotion is a type of red herring and encompasses several logical fallacies, including appeal to consequences, appeal to fear, appeal to flattery, appeal to pity, appeal to ridicule, appeal to spite, and wishful thinking.

countries in Latin America and the Caribbean host an estimated 2.4 million refugees and migrants from Venezuela, while other regions account for the rest.
...
Colombia has the highest number of refugees and migrants from Venezuela, a total of over one million.
...
With rising numbers, the needs of refugees and migrants from Venezuela...

Accepted wisdom is that, "when it comes to issues of emotional importance, convincing someone to change his or her existing beliefs appears to be a virtually hopeless undertaking." And yet, manipulating emotions may hold the key to shaping attitudes:

"the use of emotions to instill beliefs is prevalent in political propaganda. Depicting individuals, groups, or issues from an emotional perspective, or as actors in emotional events, evokes emotion. It thereby slips the belief that the emotion is about into the listener's mind. Presumably, it slips the beliefs into the listener's mind more easily, smoothly and unquestioned than would happen when the information alone was transmitted."
...
the one clearly identifiable study of pride and persuasion considered the role of culture in response to advertising, finding that members of a collectivist culture (China) responded more favorably to a pride-based appeal, whereas members of an individualist culture (the United States) responded more favorably to an empathy-based appeal."

Vested interests
Both China and Russia have vested interests in the stability and the status quo in Venezuela.

China has lent more than $50 billion to Venezuela through oil-for-loan agreements over the past decade, securing energy supplies for its fast-growing economy, Reuters noted. The news agency calculates that Russia too has lent Venezuela at least $17 billion in loans and credit lines since 2006.

In November 2017, Russia agreed to restructure Venezuelan sovereign debt of $3.15 billion, with repayments lasting 10 years. Although PDVSA’s debts were not thought to be part of this deal. On Tuesday, Russia’s finance ministry said Venezuela is due to pay Russia $100 million in March and that debt servicing problems were possible, Interfax said.

Russia is also heavily involved in Venezuela’s energy industry with Russian energy firm Rosneft holding a large stake in a subsidiary of PDVSA. PDVSA used 49.9 percent of its shares in its U.S. subsidiary Citgo as collateral for loan financing from Russia’s majority state-owned Rosneft in 2016.

Russia thus stands to suffer from U.S. measures to freeze PDVSA’s oil transactions and those of its U.S. asset Citgo (to which most of the Venezuela’s exports destined for the U.S. go).

Citgo has already become a focus for Maduro’s rival Guaido. Just ahead of U.S. sanctions Monday, the self-proclaimed interim president ordered Congress to appoint new boards of directors to PDVSA and Citgo.

The ELM proposes two major routes to persuasion: the central route and the peripheral route.

Under the central route, persuasion will likely result from a person's careful and thoughtful consideration of the true merits of the information presented in support of an advocacy.[3] The central route involves a high level of message elaboration in which a great amount of cognition about the arguments are generated by the individual receiving the message. The results of attitude change will be relatively enduring, resistant, and predictive of behavior.[4]
On the other hand, under the peripheral route, persuasion results from a person's association with positive or negative cues in the stimulus or making a simple inference about the merits of the advocated position. The cues received by the individual under the peripheral route are generally unrelated to the logical quality of the stimulus. These cues will involve factors such as the credibility or attractiveness of the sources of the message, or the production quality of the message.[5] The likelihood of elaboration will be determined by an individual's motivation and ability to evaluate the argument being presented.[6]

They are buying his BS that he isnt the reason they are starving. They will do just as much better when he is gone.

On April 29 2019 03:14 JimmiC wrote:
No, it is buying his BS. Because it could and is still getting worse under Maduro, and if he wasn't criminal stealing their money, human rights abuses and stealing power from them by taking away their right, given to them by Chavez though a military coup (which somehow you are now against, oh yeah the big bad US) has now been taking away. Maduro is not Chavez he is Maduro and he has no redeeming qualities.

On April 29 2019 03:29 JimmiC wrote:


You would have to ask them. Perhaps they thought like you that coups were bad and the people always lose regardless of how bad it is. Maybe there plan was that the best case scenario for the people of Venezuela is international talks and aid through existing channels while working internationally to ensure through diplomatic means we get as close to the elections we agree were notoriously legitimate as possible. I accept that maybe waiting until Calera is dying of old age (while doing the best we can with those other things) is the best that can be done.

Of course I don't think that way, and I don't think they were thinking that way. I suspect they were thinking then much how the Russians are now. We don't want the betterment of people to cost us any money so we are not going to help the people and risk our bank accounts. I also think it is interesting that it was lead back to the same point but the two countries have switched sides.

The people sadly are always the losers so far, hopefully that changes with the next change. As you pointed the hyperinflation that Maduro created long before the US sanctions is a Monetary policy situation that punishes the poor and the wage earner much more than the super wealthy and the main asset holders like Maduro and cronies. They can still sell and receive value for the Oil Gold and Drugs. Not to mention all the property and so on they own. I should stop you explained it better on the other thread anyway.