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South American Politics thread - Page 15

Forum Index > General Forum
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JimmiC
Profile Blog Joined May 2011
Canada22817 Posts
Last Edited: 2019-04-27 23:20:36
April 27 2019 23:20 GMT
#281
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GreenHorizons
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States23226 Posts
Last Edited: 2019-04-27 23:39:46
April 27 2019 23:29 GMT
#282
On April 28 2019 08:20 JimmiC wrote:
I'm not bad faith like you. I just honestly believe that is your belief. Correct me finish this sentence, feel free to turn it into a paragraph.

I believe Guaido is worse for the Venezuelan people than Maduro because....



Show me I was wrong.


I believe whether Guaido is worse for the Venezuelan people than Maduro is only part of a very complicated situation that entails a great deal of negative consequences we can only hope to avoid by learning from our mistakes.

Your fundamental misconception of my position/s is that they are dependent on the differences between Maduro and Guaido rather than the big picture consequences of further instability in central and South America and the US's undeniable support for despicable leaders so long as their exploitation of marginalized people benefits US oligarchs.

You've (as I've demonstrated countless times now) haphazardly grafted a variety of your own assumptions onto my positions, reduced them inaccurately or supplemented them altogether (as you've done here) to something you want to argue, but isn't my argument.
"People like to look at history and think 'If that was me back then, I would have...' We're living through history, and the truth is, whatever you are doing now is probably what you would have done then" "Scratch a Liberal..."
JimmiC
Profile Blog Joined May 2011
Canada22817 Posts
April 27 2019 23:39 GMT
#283
--- Nuked ---
GreenHorizons
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States23226 Posts
Last Edited: 2019-04-27 23:45:59
April 27 2019 23:44 GMT
#284
On April 28 2019 08:39 JimmiC wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 28 2019 08:29 GreenHorizons wrote:
On April 28 2019 08:20 JimmiC wrote:
I'm not bad faith like you. I just honestly believe that is your belief. Correct me finish this sentence, feel free to turn it into a paragraph.

I believe Guaido is worse for the Venezuelan people than Maduro because....



Show me I was wrong.


I believe whether Guaido is worse for the Venezuelan people than Maduro is only part of a very complicated situation that entails a great deal of negative consequences we can only hope to avoid by learning from our mistakes.

Your fundamental misconception of my positions is that they are dependent on the differences between Maduro and Guaido rather than the big picture consequences of further instability in central and South America and the US's undeniable support for despicable leaders so long as their exploitation of marginalized people benefits US oligarchs.

You've (as I've demonstrated countless times now) haphazardly grafted a variety of your own assumptions onto my positions, reduced them inaccurately or supplemented them altogether (as you've done here) to something you want to argue, but isn't my argument.


First the bolded part I'm pretty sure that you mean that is what you have been doing to me. I have been asking you what you believe and then when you don't answer trying to guess.


Second, I don't think it is that complicated. I'm most interested what is best for the Venezuelan people is what is most important to me.

Third here is where we differ. I prefer to have the US and other various countries that would invest in Venezuela do so than Russia, China, Turkey, Syria and so on. My experience as a Canadian is while you guys your issues, Im pretty happy for Canada to be located where it is and not where say Ukraine or Tibet is. But I am not shocked by your position that it is worse for the world to be allowed in as long as includes the US.

Because again Guaido is not the US.



I've been quite careful to make sure not to ascribe any position to you that you didn't specifically state and cite examples of my description where applicable. That's not what I've experienced from you at all.

Because again Guaido is not the US

You are the only one repeatedly asserting this is part of the argument. It's not. You can't quote me saying the alternative. It's getting obnoxious that you repeatedly do this despite me asking you to stop.

Just stop please.
"People like to look at history and think 'If that was me back then, I would have...' We're living through history, and the truth is, whatever you are doing now is probably what you would have done then" "Scratch a Liberal..."
JimmiC
Profile Blog Joined May 2011
Canada22817 Posts
April 27 2019 23:47 GMT
#285
--- Nuked ---
JimmiC
Profile Blog Joined May 2011
Canada22817 Posts
April 27 2019 23:49 GMT
#286
--- Nuked ---
GreenHorizons
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States23226 Posts
Last Edited: 2019-04-28 00:04:15
April 27 2019 23:55 GMT
#287
On April 28 2019 08:47 JimmiC wrote:
Unless it is that you think that right now Russia, China and Turkey are not making huge money and are the ones who lose with a change. The Venezuelan people can't lose they are getting anything right now.

The options are not US and the world or nothing. It is US and the democratic world or Russia, China Turkey.

If you do not see the second point let me know and I can post a bunch of information about how those countries are invested in Venezuela and what they might lose/stop making if Guaido. Part of the corruption is funneling money to them away from the people as well. I'm sure you don't think these countries are supporting Maduro out of the goodness of their hearts.


...bro...

I've said multiple times that the best course for the Venezuelan people from here is for talks to resume with the opposition (sans Guaido probably, regardless of his merit), aid to increase through existing channels, and try to get back to the world class level of elections Chavez won imo.

Although some people have criticized the result—which is Hugo Chavez having won—there’s no doubt in our mind, having monitored very closely the election process, that he won fairly and squarely. As a matter of fact, of the 92 elections that we’ve monitored, I would say that the election process in Venezuela is the best in the world. — Jimmy Carter


So if Guaido is not the US why do you act like if he becomes the intern leader the US now controls Venezuela. The only way this make sense is if you think Guaido is completely under the control of the US and doing exactly what the US wants.


I don't think that. I think that Guaido's hopes rest entirely on his support from the US. If the US says, "we no longer recognize Guaido as the interim president" the "coup" or "revolution" is practically dead (if it isn't already) and Guaido probably is too. People are free to draw their own conclusions to what level of loyalty that may get the US from Guaido.

On April 28 2019 08:58 JimmiC wrote:
Maduro is willing to have talks as long as nothing is on the table. Guaido is willing to have talks as long as everything is on the table. I don't think what your saying is possible and I don't see how that is any different than the status quo or why you think Guaido's position of wanting things on the table to talk matters.

Do you think Trumps talks with NK were productive? I don't, because nothing was on the table from the side of NK, same here.



Maduro has in fact put several things (parliamentary elections) on the table (though perhaps not everything his opponents want).

I don't even want to touch NK but if the question is the status quo better than the US trying to forcefully remove the leader of NK (with a native or not) I'd obviously say the status quo + negotiations (obviously Trump is a moron that shouldn't be trusted with negotiations, let alone regime change).
"People like to look at history and think 'If that was me back then, I would have...' We're living through history, and the truth is, whatever you are doing now is probably what you would have done then" "Scratch a Liberal..."
JimmiC
Profile Blog Joined May 2011
Canada22817 Posts
Last Edited: 2019-04-27 23:58:56
April 27 2019 23:58 GMT
#288
--- Nuked ---
JimmiC
Profile Blog Joined May 2011
Canada22817 Posts
Last Edited: 2019-04-28 00:03:46
April 28 2019 00:01 GMT
#289
--- Nuked ---
GreenHorizons
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States23226 Posts
April 28 2019 00:07 GMT
#290
Of course you are not willing to say your opinion, you are not willing to give any opinion because then you can sit back and say "no I didn't say that" as you hint whatever bullshit it is that you after but won't say. LOL


bruh, you've been rather clear you don't value my opinion. So I'm just giving you the facts like you asked for and now you don't like the facts but think I'm hiding my opinion. You're impossible to deal with on this topic other than ignore you at this point.
"People like to look at history and think 'If that was me back then, I would have...' We're living through history, and the truth is, whatever you are doing now is probably what you would have done then" "Scratch a Liberal..."
JimmiC
Profile Blog Joined May 2011
Canada22817 Posts
Last Edited: 2019-04-28 00:26:12
April 28 2019 00:17 GMT
#291
--- Nuked ---
GreenHorizons
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States23226 Posts
Last Edited: 2019-04-28 00:36:14
April 28 2019 00:21 GMT
#292
On April 28 2019 09:17 JimmiC wrote:
No I still don't know your opinion because I continually get it wrong and for some reason you won't say. "no I don't think that I think this".


I literally just did exactly that.

I don't think that. I think that Guaido's hopes rest entirely on his support from the US. If the US says, "we no longer recognize Guaido as the interim president" the "coup" or "revolution" is practically dead (if it isn't already) and Guaido probably is too. People are free to draw their own conclusions to what level of loyalty that may get the US from Guaido.


I think this definitively proves the reason you "don't know [my] opinion" & "continually get it wrong" is not what you think it is.

But you did give a semi opinion that you think they should engage in talks. Or you know retain the status quo (since Maduro has said he won't change) like I suggested you said but you say you don't.


There's going to be another election. The quality of the election will be determined by the path we take from here. While I don't share your optimism that there was a path for Guaido to get to one (or still is) I understand your position.

My position is that Guaido is generally a lost cause at this point and that the best case scenario for the people of Venezuela is international talks and aid through existing channels while working internationally to ensure through diplomatic means we get as close to the elections we agree were notoriously legitimate as possible. I accept that maybe waiting until Maduro is dying of old age (while doing the best we can with those other things) is the best that can be done.
"People like to look at history and think 'If that was me back then, I would have...' We're living through history, and the truth is, whatever you are doing now is probably what you would have done then" "Scratch a Liberal..."
xM(Z
Profile Joined November 2006
Romania5281 Posts
Last Edited: 2019-04-28 09:26:33
April 28 2019 09:03 GMT
#293
On April 28 2019 03:28 JimmiC wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 28 2019 02:37 xM(Z wrote:
On April 28 2019 01:21 JimmiC wrote:
On April 28 2019 01:09 xM(Z wrote:
you obviously didn't thought this through and now are inventing excuses for your behavior which is unproductive. you caring about socialism ... i'm laughing.

if you'll come down to Earth i'll be happy to continue.

Edit: from above
The pro-Maduro demonstration suggested, not surprisingly, that Guaidó had failed to win much popular support outside the wealthy and upper-middle class. But Guaidó couldn’t even win support from many of them. The day before rival rallies February 2, Henrique Capriles, the leader of a less extreme right-wing faction, gave an interview to the AFP that appeared in Últimas Noticias (2/1/19), the most widely read newspaper in Venezuela. In it, Capriles said that most of the opposition had not supported Guaidó’s self-proclamation as president. That may explain the surprisingly weak turnout at Guaidó’s demonstration, held in the wealthiest district of Caracas, and obviously outshone by the pro-government demonstration on the city’s main boulevard.



That is simply not true, you are just reading Maduro Propaganda he is able to get support from millions for protests, there is like 10 people left in the upper class that are not Maduro Cronies. Madruo has rallies, and if you want food you better go, it is silly to me that you believe this. Do you really think 3 million people left and they were all rich upper class people? Use some basic logic and problem solving when you read stuff it is really not hard. As I've said to GH go and talk to actual Venezuelan's and get back to me. There are tons of refugees every where because millions have left. It won't take long for you to figure out that they are not rich upper class people and that what you are reading is BS.

As for me, I know who I vote for, volunteer for, work at. I strongly suspect based on your world view you sit at home with great opinions and don't do much to actually help.
are you coming for us to bro?.
As many as 3.4 million Romanians have fled the country since it joined the European Union in 2007. The figure represents 17 per cent of the country’s total population. The exodus is unprecedented anywhere in Europe during peacetime. Over the same period, only war-torn Syria has seen a higher percentage of its citizens emigrate. The figures – estimates – were released at the end of February by the Immigrant Integration Research Centre at Move, an international conference discussing migration and the integration of migrants.
people leave because people leave and in your case, you can't put it on Maduro alone. not only that, you also can't assume that they all support Guaido.

i'm a greenie, i sink carbon into the soil as a hobby but yea, you're right, i don't do people because one needs to afford to do volunteer work over here.

Edit:
On April 28 2019 02:30 JimmiC wrote:
Yes, Maduros rich friends are not documented because all they money is from crime. And find people who don't support Maduro is easy so I don't doubt that you are right. If you are not getting rich off stealing from the people why would you like him?

I also enjoy how you and XMZ don't support Madruo, but spend a lot of time posting support of Maduro.
it's for you dude, i do it for you. opposite povs shift your extremism towards a centre, a middle ground.
it's not to display the prowess of what or whom i support ... jesusfuckingchrist dude.

more Edit: hmm, i saw the irony; i'm doing volunteer work helping you. i'm conflicted as to how i should feel about it.



You are not helping me sir, come on now.

I have no idea what coming for you means?

Yes lots of people left Romania, I don't know why but that same amount has left Venezuela and there is hundreds of thousands of articles on why. Are many of the people who left Romania living in Refugee camps outside the border hoping to return? If so I hope there is some there working to change that.


I read it all my friend. Unlike you I don't just google what I believe to further that belief. I have also posted articles right from Maduro's own government funded website.

Perhaps if you are trying to communicate with someone, you should just do it. Instead of posting articles and quotes that now you say you don't agree with? It is all very confusing.
because you presented numbers, high numbers, trying to stir emotion and said nothing about the conditions those people live in and so i did too. if you were to talk about living conditions, then you'd have to severely reduce that 3 mil 'cause there aren't 3mil venezuelans living in tens.
UNHCR used the 3mil guestimate to mean:
UNHCR, the UN Refugee Agency, and IOM, the UN Migration Agency, announced today that the number of refugees and migrants from Venezuela worldwide has now reached three million.
show an article that says that 3mil venezuelans left the country because Maduro, and are living in tents; you can't 'cause there aren't any. those 3mil could be from the beginning of time.

you are getting duped by a type of appeal to emotion logical fallacy
Appeal to emotion or argumentum ad passiones ("argument from passion") is a logical fallacy characterized by the manipulation of the recipient's emotions in order to win an argument, especially in the absence of factual evidence.[1] This kind of appeal to emotion is a type of red herring and encompasses several logical fallacies, including appeal to consequences, appeal to fear, appeal to flattery, appeal to pity, appeal to ridicule, appeal to spite, and wishful thinking.
from the same UNHCR:
countries in Latin America and the Caribbean host an estimated 2.4 million refugees and migrants from Venezuela, while other regions account for the rest.
...
Colombia has the highest number of refugees and migrants from Venezuela, a total of over one million.
...
With rising numbers, the needs of refugees and migrants from Venezuela...
do you see the pattern?; they use the migrant numbers to conflate the refugee numbers and you are buying it. give me numbers on how many venezuelans are actually living in tents.
in your reply you used many of the people ... are living in refugee camps; source <many of the people>, give numbers.

note: you're also using the same fallacy, appeal to emotion, to try to convince others of your pov. so far you're used appeal to consequences, appeal to fear, appeal to ridicule, appeal to spite, and wishful thinking.
you read/listen things like: https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/20/world/americas/venezuela-refugees-colombia.html or https://www.rescue.org/article/why-are-venezuelans-leaving-their-country and the outcome of it on you is:
Accepted wisdom is that, "when it comes to issues of emotional importance, convincing someone to change his or her existing beliefs appears to be a virtually hopeless undertaking." And yet, manipulating emotions may hold the key to shaping attitudes:

"the use of emotions to instill beliefs is prevalent in political propaganda. Depicting individuals, groups, or issues from an emotional perspective, or as actors in emotional events, evokes emotion. It thereby slips the belief that the emotion is about into the listener's mind. Presumably, it slips the beliefs into the listener's mind more easily, smoothly and unquestioned than would happen when the information alone was transmitted."
...
the one clearly identifiable study of pride and persuasion considered the role of culture in response to advertising, finding that members of a collectivist culture (China) responded more favorably to a pride-based appeal, whereas members of an individualist culture (the United States) responded more favorably to an empathy-based appeal."


Venezuelans got really fucked in 1983 when US(with the help of Saudi Arabia) crashed the oil prices to fuck with Russia. they managed to fuck the russians but everyone else whos' economy depended on oil exports got fucked too.
since then, the value stored in private ownership and in personal property(courtoisie to the USpol thread) of regular venezuelans gradually decreased(being initially exchanged to cash, then sunk through cash flow into trying to acquire basic necessities). chavismo plus the cuban economical program made it exponentially worse(the massive cash flight out of middle and upper class, the attempted coup, the self-made financial bauble or the second oil price drop in 2013-2014 didn't help either) so when people were left without both value/assets and cash, they started fleeing. the worse it got(economically), the more people fled, as evidenced by numbers.

+ Show Spoiler +
(a video on some of the above)

more for you
Vested interests
Both China and Russia have vested interests in the stability and the status quo in Venezuela.

China has lent more than $50 billion to Venezuela through oil-for-loan agreements over the past decade, securing energy supplies for its fast-growing economy, Reuters noted. The news agency calculates that Russia too has lent Venezuela at least $17 billion in loans and credit lines since 2006.

In November 2017, Russia agreed to restructure Venezuelan sovereign debt of $3.15 billion, with repayments lasting 10 years. Although PDVSA’s debts were not thought to be part of this deal. On Tuesday, Russia’s finance ministry said Venezuela is due to pay Russia $100 million in March and that debt servicing problems were possible, Interfax said.

Russia is also heavily involved in Venezuela’s energy industry with Russian energy firm Rosneft holding a large stake in a subsidiary of PDVSA. PDVSA used 49.9 percent of its shares in its U.S. subsidiary Citgo as collateral for loan financing from Russia’s majority state-owned Rosneft in 2016.

Russia thus stands to suffer from U.S. measures to freeze PDVSA’s oil transactions and those of its U.S. asset Citgo (to which most of the Venezuela’s exports destined for the U.S. go).

Citgo has already become a focus for Maduro’s rival Guaido. Just ahead of U.S. sanctions Monday, the self-proclaimed interim president ordered Congress to appoint new boards of directors to PDVSA and Citgo.
my overall point throughout these kind of topics is that no one gives a fuck about 'the people'; no one, ever. not even you.
you might care about some people but about 'the people of <(Venezuela in this case)>, no fucking chance because you'd have to care about the people of Maduro too(they are in the millions) and you don't give 2shits about them.

Edit: you can also look into https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elaboration_likelihood_model
The ELM proposes two major routes to persuasion: the central route and the peripheral route.

Under the central route, persuasion will likely result from a person's careful and thoughtful consideration of the true merits of the information presented in support of an advocacy.[3] The central route involves a high level of message elaboration in which a great amount of cognition about the arguments are generated by the individual receiving the message. The results of attitude change will be relatively enduring, resistant, and predictive of behavior.[4]
On the other hand, under the peripheral route, persuasion results from a person's association with positive or negative cues in the stimulus or making a simple inference about the merits of the advocated position. The cues received by the individual under the peripheral route are generally unrelated to the logical quality of the stimulus. These cues will involve factors such as the credibility or attractiveness of the sources of the message, or the production quality of the message.[5] The likelihood of elaboration will be determined by an individual's motivation and ability to evaluate the argument being presented.[6]
you fall into the later category.
And my fury stands ready. I bring all your plans to nought. My bleak heart beats steady. 'Tis you whom I have sought.
JimmiC
Profile Blog Joined May 2011
Canada22817 Posts
Last Edited: 2019-04-28 14:21:15
April 28 2019 13:22 GMT
#294
--- Nuked ---
GreenHorizons
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States23226 Posts
Last Edited: 2019-04-28 15:53:02
April 28 2019 15:50 GMT
#295
They are buying his BS that he isnt the reason they are starving. They will do just as much better when he is gone.


It's not that they are "buying his BS" it's that many of them literally remember that things were worse in many ways before Chavez and Maduro despite the country holding/generating massive wealth.

When the real, documented, billionaires were getting wealthy exploiting marginalized Venezuelans while people struggled to survive and couldn't even read.
"People like to look at history and think 'If that was me back then, I would have...' We're living through history, and the truth is, whatever you are doing now is probably what you would have done then" "Scratch a Liberal..."
JimmiC
Profile Blog Joined May 2011
Canada22817 Posts
April 28 2019 18:14 GMT
#296
--- Nuked ---
GreenHorizons
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States23226 Posts
Last Edited: 2019-04-28 18:19:43
April 28 2019 18:19 GMT
#297
On April 29 2019 03:14 JimmiC wrote:
No, it is buying his BS. Because it could and is still getting worse under Maduro, and if he wasn't criminal stealing their money, human rights abuses and stealing power from them by taking away their right, given to them by Chavez though a military coup (which somehow you are now against, oh yeah the big bad US) has now been taking away. Maduro is not Chavez he is Maduro and he has no redeeming qualities.



Not according to interviews with opposition to Maduro that isn't supportive of US intervention/Guaido, some I've linked before.

Why do you think the US opposed Chavez's "coup" and supports Guaido's "revolution"?
"People like to look at history and think 'If that was me back then, I would have...' We're living through history, and the truth is, whatever you are doing now is probably what you would have done then" "Scratch a Liberal..."
JimmiC
Profile Blog Joined May 2011
Canada22817 Posts
April 28 2019 18:29 GMT
#298
--- Nuked ---
GreenHorizons
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States23226 Posts
Last Edited: 2019-04-28 18:36:12
April 28 2019 18:35 GMT
#299
On April 29 2019 03:29 JimmiC wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 29 2019 03:19 GreenHorizons wrote:
On April 29 2019 03:14 JimmiC wrote:
No, it is buying his BS. Because it could and is still getting worse under Maduro, and if he wasn't criminal stealing their money, human rights abuses and stealing power from them by taking away their right, given to them by Chavez though a military coup (which somehow you are now against, oh yeah the big bad US) has now been taking away. Maduro is not Chavez he is Maduro and he has no redeeming qualities.



Not according to interviews with opposition to Maduro that isn't supportive of US intervention/Guaido, some I've linked before.

Why do you think the US opposed Chavez's "coup" and supports Guaido's "revolution"?


You would have to ask them. Perhaps they thought like you that coups were bad and the people always lose regardless of how bad it is. Maybe there plan was that the best case scenario for the people of Venezuela is international talks and aid through existing channels while working internationally to ensure through diplomatic means we get as close to the elections we agree were notoriously legitimate as possible. I accept that maybe waiting until Calera is dying of old age (while doing the best we can with those other things) is the best that can be done.

Of course I don't think that way, and I don't think they were thinking that way. I suspect they were thinking then much how the Russians are now. We don't want the betterment of people to cost us any money so we are not going to help the people and risk our bank accounts. I also think it is interesting that it was lead back to the same point but the two countries have switched sides.

The people sadly are always the losers so far, hopefully that changes with the next change. As you pointed the hyperinflation that Maduro created long before the US sanctions is a Monetary policy situation that punishes the poor and the wage earner much more than the super wealthy and the main asset holders like Maduro and cronies. They can still sell and receive value for the Oil Gold and Drugs. Not to mention all the property and so on they own. I should stop you explained it better on the other thread anyway.


Calera?

I don't know what you're responding to but my question is why you think the US supports Guaido "coup/revolution" and opposed Chavez's "coup/globally recognized legitimate election"?
"People like to look at history and think 'If that was me back then, I would have...' We're living through history, and the truth is, whatever you are doing now is probably what you would have done then" "Scratch a Liberal..."
JimmiC
Profile Blog Joined May 2011
Canada22817 Posts
April 28 2019 18:39 GMT
#300
--- Nuked ---
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