EPTWhile we don't know the probability of success of the uprising, we do know that Maduro's government is extremely unstable and there's no stabilizing factor in sight. It's almost certain that something will happen sooner or later.
South American Politics thread - Page 19
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warding
Portugal2394 Posts
While we don't know the probability of success of the uprising, we do know that Maduro's government is extremely unstable and there's no stabilizing factor in sight. It's almost certain that something will happen sooner or later. | ||
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GreenHorizons
United States22717 Posts
On May 01 2019 01:48 GoTuNk! wrote: No, I have not express support for anything, and you are nutjob who would stand by stalin murdering ukranian farmers and called it social justice if it someway hurt "the rich" in your twisted obsessed mind. Please allow other human beings to discuss in this thread. You opposed Pinochet and his overthrow of the Chilean government with the assistance of Kissinger? I'm only asking because I don't know why I would think that unless you said something to that effect. I apologize if you've expressed your disgust at Pinochet and his coup. It is clear the military is split and some support Guaido's constitutional claim. How much is on each side is completely up to guess, with both sides claiming to have military support. According to all reports I've seen there are ~2000 generals and none of them have defected. A couple diplomatic officers without troops is the most I've seen other than the recent defection of the guards for Lopez (which is a reasonably significant development, though unlikely to change the reality on the ground significantly). Basically this bodes poorly for Guaido because he's Lopez's underling (prior to when Guaido swore himself in as president). | ||
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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GoTuNk!
Chile4591 Posts
Military personnel aligned with Guaido are wearing a blue ribbon to indentify themselves. It is unclear how many are them. News link is in spanish but you can watch the images. https://www.eldiario.es/internacional/Militares-venezolanos-Maduro-muestran-Guaido_0_894161161.html | ||
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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GreenHorizons
United States22717 Posts
The TLDR is they are profiting so much from the corruption plus they fear a new government will not only end that but they may end up in jail for the corruption or human rights abuses. They also fear repercussions to their friends and family and are unsure who are the cuban spies within the organization. You are risking death, torture and that of your family too if you rick supporting Guaido. So any that do clearly feel very passionate about it I obviously have qualms with this description but rather than dwell on that I'll just note that this is why it's important to recognize even if Maduro named Guaido interim president himself there's a long way between that and legitimate elections. It's been noted JimmiC's optimism is contingent on being unaware/unaccepting of what that typically entails applying here. | ||
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warding
Portugal2394 Posts
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GreenHorizons
United States22717 Posts
On May 01 2019 02:24 warding wrote: Reading GH you might thinkg we've never seen a country emerge from a totalitarian regime into a democracy before. It's not only entirely possible and feasible for Guaidó to succeed in that task, it's actually necessary. The lives of 30 million people actually depend on it. I'm not sure any of that is true/accurate? I mean it's technically possible Guaido succeeds but with Lopez out he's not even the most popular opposition figure anymore and his constitutional claim is tenuous at best. Additionally many diplomats that backed Guaido have been frustrated for a while that he's been unable to make any significant progress. I advise a backup plan for those 30 million because today is take 2 of trying to make this happen and if it trails off again after all the coverage it's going to get this week Guaido has a very dim future if one at all. To explain, the opposition will likely cannibalize him and return to negotiations as "more reasonable than the Guaido guy swearing himself in at a rally" and take a deal that secures their own safety and moderate wealth. Guaido's party anyway, there will still be vocal opposition to Maduro from his left and a Venezuelan billionaire media mogul criticizing him from his right through Venevisión (national broadcast television). | ||
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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Godwrath
Spain10109 Posts
On May 01 2019 02:24 warding wrote: Reading GH you might thinkg we've never seen a country emerge from a totalitarian regime into a democracy before. It's not only entirely possible and feasible for Guaidó to succeed in that task, it's actually necessary. The lives of 30 million people actually depend on it. Will you provide an example and how it support such case in the very specific scenario of Venezuela? Or are you speaking long term ? | ||
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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warding
Portugal2394 Posts
On May 01 2019 03:36 Godwrath wrote: Will you provide an example and how it support such case in the very specific scenario of Venezuela? Or are you speaking long term ? I'm not sure what you mean. What I meant was that we have almost 100 democracies in the world today, and the majority of them actually were born after 1970 with a mixture of non-violent and violent resistances, civilian and military uprisings and so on. Including Portugal and Spain. It's easy to dismiss fledgling uprisings as unlikely to succeed, but the other side of the coin is that dictatorships running failed states are just as unlikely to remain in power. I have no personal preference for Guaidó, either way. He is the leading man now, but what matters is getting Venezuela on track to building back a functioning country and democracy. | ||
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GreenHorizons
United States22717 Posts
On May 01 2019 03:36 JimmiC wrote: Yes I consider this Atypical because so much has happened differently than in the examples you use to tell me "what is actually going on" and your early predictions (which you phrased as going to happen have not). Because of this I continue to have optimism that someday, hopefully soon (next year or 2) Venezuela will go back to being a democracy. I don't know what your qualms are? I thought this was agreed upon and is known fact at this point. Now I'm confused. I literally just demonstrated your confusion is of your own making (you've gotten plenty of help from western society in general) and that demonstrating it multiple times is fruitless. + Show Spoiler + On April 30 2019 13:51 GreenHorizons wrote: Yes. That's exactly why spreading the rumor she's got billions in Europe is irresponsible and I called it out as the rumor/conspiracy theory it was. To which I asked how you got that and you showed an instagram pic with her holding like $40 and jpg to (presumably) a dailymail article (that I don't think you ever actually linked) talking about a vacation that fits in the budget CNBC said "can feel avg". This is what I'm talking about when I say clear examples of you spreading rumor because you repeat things without any critical analysis. had they even been identified? I tried that for a while and you kept wildly distorting or fabricating my positions. Remember when I confronted you on the thing I had to try to correct you on 5 separate times? I can address the rumor spreading without engaging with the other stuff that would go nowhere as I demonstrated. I only use the snippets so it's clear which rumors/arguments I'm addressing and you so much as it matters people are able to clearly assess the source and reliability of the information you provide about a conflict no one but us are really addressing. You, and everyone else knows it's not hard to get me to share my opinion. The reason I've decided to focus on your arguments themselves rather than you, the invective, or the poorly framed (imo/demonstrated) questions you ask is because even when I express an opinion in clear and unambiguous language you insist on distorting or fabricating a new one and then I have to ask you multiple times to show evidence it's my position or stop. On the off chance you do bring evidence it's based off a literal misinterpretation of your own making. TLDR: I've demonstrated you're asking in bad faith imo. | ||
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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Godwrath
Spain10109 Posts
On May 01 2019 03:50 warding wrote: Yes, over 60 countries, in the majority of cases they were not through foreign interventions, and very rarely violent. It is also true that overthrowing dictatorship very rarely ends up in a democracy (through foreign intervention or an inside coup), so instability isn't neccessarily a step towards democratization in itself. Dictatorships transition to democracy when they don't have a "what to do next" or how to hold into power. War is the oppossite direction you want to go, and that's what Guaidó is asking for with a military uprising.I'm not sure what you mean. What I meant was that we have almost 100 democracies in the world today, and the majority of them actually were born after 1970 with a mixture of non-violent and violent resistances, civilian and military uprisings and so on. Including Portugal and Spain. It's easy to dismiss fledgling uprisings as unlikely to succeed, but the other side of the coin is that dictatorships running failed states are just as unlikely to remain in power. I have no personal preference for Guaidó, either way. He is the leading man now, but what matters is getting Venezuela on track to building back a functioning country and democracy. What is important is to know what the people IN Venezuela think about what's going on, and it is very hard to get unbiased information about it. All we can do about it is speculate. My biggest problem with GH is how determined he is to defend the form of goverment in Venezuela in some aspects, when the corruption has strangled its credibility for decades, no matter the sanctions imposed. I was just trying for you to develop your argument rather than leave it at as a cheapshot at GH, but it is fair that you were not interested. | ||
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pmh
1351 Posts
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GreenHorizons
United States22717 Posts
On May 01 2019 04:08 JimmiC wrote: Do you have qualms with that the Generals are loyal because of the corruption? If not my post was short share your qualms. My point in the post was what came after me expressing my qualms and the fruitlessness of exploring them with you. I'll just note that this is why it's important to recognize even if Maduro named Guaido interim president himself there's a long way between that and legitimate elections. I linked a video that explained this a bit in a previous post the most relevant bit is from 3:55-~6:00 + Show Spoiler + But it explains that when a new ruler takes charge it's not as simple as just removing the bad guys or that the bad guys won't be employed by the next "good guy" to continue the same bad guy practices. Maybe you hope Guaido won't be a dictator acting in the interest of western governments, but the reality is that his practical options are quite limited as a result of the conditions in country and internationally. Today is clearly a decision point of sorts though imo based on the Lopez news and Bolton's conference. Early reports I've heard is that the opposition protests are happening but not as massive as at first and throwing Molotovs and such. | ||
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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