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South American Politics thread - Page 21

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JimmiC
Profile Blog Joined May 2011
Canada22817 Posts
May 01 2019 21:11 GMT
#401
--- Nuked ---
GreenHorizons
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States23879 Posts
Last Edited: 2019-05-01 21:40:36
May 01 2019 21:15 GMT
#402
On May 02 2019 06:11 JimmiC wrote:
from just your summary it looks like some similarities to maduro and the military.


This is a point I've been trying to make for a while so I'm happy.

As to your comment, no the US scores not great, it is in the same category as Brazil as a flawed democracy as well and is dropping. Outside of the US people dont see things as going well. And there are concerns that it will continue to slide.


That was kinda my point. That the US isn't in a position to work on other countries level of democracy and that democracies like Brazil or the US can be arguably overrun by relatively small foreign operations.


For context:
+ Show Spoiler +
On May 02 2019 05:49 GreenHorizons wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 02 2019 05:26 JimmiC wrote:
I have not read much on it so I'm not going to claim to be an expert on anything but what I have read is that it was more a populism thing like Trump, so super popular with his base and super unpopular with his opposition but the base is big enough to carry him to victory.

The various reports that I read on democracy have them as a flawed democracy even above countries like Mexico. The good news is that Bolsonaro won 55% of the vote in a second-roundrun-off, his right-wing Partido Social Liberal won just 10% of the seats in Brazil’s Congress, which will force it to seek support from other parties in Congress so he can't just do whatever he wants.


Would you be able to send the sources on the links to the assassinations I have not read about them.

I have read about Temer (right of center) and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (left) and Operation Car wash. I'm guessing you think this a US conspiracy based on your posts. Do you have any sources so I can catch up.


"democracy ratings" are a good place to start but are not always accurate. I'm sure the US scores pretty high on them as well and the last two years have been non-stop coverage of how a foreign country may have made Trump president despite his lack of popularity.

Bolsonaro may be less popular than Trump depending on how you measure but you're right it's largely characterized as a "populist win"

Show nested quote +
The president, a right-wing populist, was swept into office with an expansive mandate for change by voters fed up with political corruption, violence and the lingering effects of a deep recession.

But without a new strategy in place, Mr. Bolsonaro has struggled to keep even the 58 lawmakers of his own party in line, calling into question his ability to pass politically unpopular measures in Brazil’s unruly, multiparty legislature, which has 594 representatives.

Hearings on pension changes have devolved into shouting matches, frustrating proponents inside and outside the government, and leading even former allies to speak of Mr. Bolsonaro with open contempt.

All of this has left him with the lowest popularity rating of any first-term president at this point in a tenure since democracy was restored in the mid-1980s, according to a poll by Datafolha: Thirty percent of those surveyed called his presidency bad or terrible.

+ Show Spoiler +
Jair Bolsonaro (PSL) has his government approved, that is, evaluated as good or good by 32% of Brazilians aged 16 years or more, and a similar share of 30%. he sees as bad or bad and disapproves. The rest consider the government of the retired military regular (33%) or preferred not to comment (4%)

Mr. Bolsonaro has also made it easier for civilians to acquire weapons

www.nytimes.com

Many reports suggest Brazilian government is actually run by the military and Bolsonaro takes orders. He's put generals in charge of many main industries and a general recently admitted to threatening the supreme court to imprison Lula.

Show nested quote +
Bolsonaro has appointed several generals to various ministries, such as those of transportation and defense. He also appointed judge Sergio Moro as his minister of justice. Moro is the judge who was behind the imprisonment of Lula da Silva, who at the time was the frontrunner in this year’s presidential race.

Last weekend, a high ranking general of Brazil’s military, General Villas Boas, admitted in an interview to the newspaper Folha de Sao Paulo that he threatened Brazil’s Supreme Court so that it would rule in favor of Lula’s imprisonment.


therealnews.com

On his ties to assasinations I was thinking of:

Show nested quote +
Brazil’s far-right president, Jair Bolsonaro, is facing growing calls to explain his family’s alleged links to the heavily armed and notoriously violent paramilitary gangs that control large swaths of Rio de Janeiro.

Questions over possible connections between the Bolsonaros and Rio’s so-called “militias” were swirling even before the former army captain took office in January – so much so that revellers at this year’s carnival penned a song satirising the president’s supposed criminal ties.

But those concerns intensified this week when a photograph emerged in which a grinning Jair Bolsonaro appears with his arm around Élcio Queiroz, one of the two men arrested on Tuesday for the 2018 assassination of the Rio councillor Marielle Franco


www.theguardian.com

"People like to look at history and think 'If that was me back then, I would have...' We're living through history, and the truth is, whatever you are doing now is probably what you would have done then" "Scratch a Liberal..."
JimmiC
Profile Blog Joined May 2011
Canada22817 Posts
Last Edited: 2019-05-01 21:43:07
May 01 2019 21:41 GMT
#403
--- Nuked ---
GreenHorizons
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States23879 Posts
May 01 2019 21:49 GMT
#404
On May 02 2019 06:41 JimmiC wrote:
So if a new upstart was claiming that Brazils election was a fraud and the world agreed and supported him, and bolsonaro was ordering his military(or agreeing with them) to kill people who protested. You would advise them to have talks?


If you're asking if I would oppose the US doing in Brazil what they are doing in Venezuela it should be abundantly clear (I've answered some form of this question several times now) the answer is: of course.

Why do you think you'd get a different answer this time?
"People like to look at history and think 'If that was me back then, I would have...' We're living through history, and the truth is, whatever you are doing now is probably what you would have done then" "Scratch a Liberal..."
pmh
Profile Joined March 2016
1416 Posts
May 01 2019 22:11 GMT
#405
What i dont understand is why quaido has not been arrested yet.
I did not understand this a few weeks ago either when he declared himself president after the elections.
Not saying he should be arrested btw,,just to be clear.
JimmiC
Profile Blog Joined May 2011
Canada22817 Posts
Last Edited: 2019-05-01 22:20:51
May 01 2019 22:17 GMT
#406
--- Nuked ---
JimmiC
Profile Blog Joined May 2011
Canada22817 Posts
May 01 2019 22:18 GMT
#407
--- Nuked ---
GreenHorizons
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States23879 Posts
Last Edited: 2019-05-01 22:25:27
May 01 2019 22:22 GMT
#408
You say

On May 02 2019 07:17 JimmiC wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 02 2019 06:49 GreenHorizons wrote:
On May 02 2019 06:41 JimmiC wrote:
So if a new upstart was claiming that Brazils election was a fraud and the world agreed and supported him, and bolsonaro was ordering his military(or agreeing with them) to kill people who protested. You would advise them to have talks?


If you're asking if I would oppose the US doing in Brazil what they are doing in Venezuela it should be abundantly clear (I've answered some form of this question several times now) the answer is: of course.

Why do you think you'd get a different answer this time?

But the US isnt doing anything in Venezuela other than verbally supporting Guaido. But no need to go round and round again I guess.


then you say

On May 02 2019 07:18 JimmiC wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 02 2019 07:11 pmh wrote:
What i dont understand is why quaido has not been arrested yet.
I did not understand this a few weeks ago either when he declared himself president after the elections.
Not saying he should be arrested btw,,just to be clear.

As the leader of congress he has the constitutional right to do this. But more then that the US europe canada and over 60 other countries have said hands off or penalty of war.


So by "nothing" you mean threatening war should Maduro arrest someone who has conspired to remove him from power (pretty standard fare around the world for a leader, regardless of legitimacy, to do).

Lula in Brazil was arrested for much less (if anything more than threats from the military) for example.
"People like to look at history and think 'If that was me back then, I would have...' We're living through history, and the truth is, whatever you are doing now is probably what you would have done then" "Scratch a Liberal..."
pmh
Profile Joined March 2016
1416 Posts
May 01 2019 23:06 GMT
#409
On May 02 2019 07:18 JimmiC wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 02 2019 07:11 pmh wrote:
What i dont understand is why quaido has not been arrested yet.
I did not understand this a few weeks ago either when he declared himself president after the elections.
Not saying he should be arrested btw,,just to be clear.

As the leader of congress he has the constitutional right to do this. But more then that the US europe canada and over 60 other countries have said hands off or penalty of war.



I did not know that but even then I still don't understand. If foreign countries have that kind of leverage then why don't they force him to resign directly instead?
It makes no sense to me that he has not been arrested,keeping him around is hardly better from maduro,s &co perspective? It keeps the whole situation unstable and if quaido is not going to stop till maduro resigns then what is the future plan (for both sides).
Like in any other country,even the usa or Europe,he would have been arrested. I guess there is a lot more going on then the news that makes the headlines here.
JimmiC
Profile Blog Joined May 2011
Canada22817 Posts
May 01 2019 23:24 GMT
#410
--- Nuked ---
JimmiC
Profile Blog Joined May 2011
Canada22817 Posts
May 01 2019 23:27 GMT
#411
--- Nuked ---
GreenHorizons
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States23879 Posts
May 02 2019 00:11 GMT
#412
On May 02 2019 08:24 JimmiC wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 02 2019 07:22 GreenHorizons wrote:
You say

On May 02 2019 07:17 JimmiC wrote:
On May 02 2019 06:49 GreenHorizons wrote:
On May 02 2019 06:41 JimmiC wrote:
So if a new upstart was claiming that Brazils election was a fraud and the world agreed and supported him, and bolsonaro was ordering his military(or agreeing with them) to kill people who protested. You would advise them to have talks?


If you're asking if I would oppose the US doing in Brazil what they are doing in Venezuela it should be abundantly clear (I've answered some form of this question several times now) the answer is: of course.

Why do you think you'd get a different answer this time?

But the US isnt doing anything in Venezuela other than verbally supporting Guaido. But no need to go round and round again I guess.


then you say

On May 02 2019 07:18 JimmiC wrote:
On May 02 2019 07:11 pmh wrote:
What i dont understand is why quaido has not been arrested yet.
I did not understand this a few weeks ago either when he declared himself president after the elections.
Not saying he should be arrested btw,,just to be clear.

As the leader of congress he has the constitutional right to do this. But more then that the US europe canada and over 60 other countries have said hands off or penalty of war.


So by "nothing" you mean threatening war should Maduro arrest someone who has conspired to remove him from power (pretty standard fare around the world for a leader, regardless of legitimacy, to do).

Lula in Brazil was arrested for much less (if anything more than threats from the military) for example.


That operation was pretty major and international so im not sure less.


"pretty major" by what metrics?

And I would hope the world would try to protect someone from arrest and torture and murder, of him and his family to try to restore democracy anywhere.


Are you familiar with Jamal Khashoggi?

Your position is logically incongruent.


I think I've pretty comprehensively demonstrated the inverse is true.
"People like to look at history and think 'If that was me back then, I would have...' We're living through history, and the truth is, whatever you are doing now is probably what you would have done then" "Scratch a Liberal..."
JimmiC
Profile Blog Joined May 2011
Canada22817 Posts
May 02 2019 00:33 GMT
#413
--- Nuked ---
Aceace
Profile Joined June 2011
Turkey1305 Posts
May 02 2019 00:55 GMT
#414
On May 02 2019 04:05 JimmiC wrote:
I believe that Brazil is still a democracy so there is hope to get rid of him that way at some point at least for now. I think the bigger issue is that there is so many people that agree with him. How do you educate (I'm sure there is a better word but it is all I can think of) the public so that they find him as despicable as you and I do.


No...

When people decide to elect a "strongman" democracy dies instantly. I know.. I experienced it first hand.
Dün dündür, bugün bugündür. (Yesterday was yesterday, today is today)
Godwrath
Profile Joined August 2012
Spain10141 Posts
May 02 2019 01:40 GMT
#415
On May 02 2019 08:27 JimmiC wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 02 2019 08:06 pmh wrote:
On May 02 2019 07:18 JimmiC wrote:
On May 02 2019 07:11 pmh wrote:
What i dont understand is why quaido has not been arrested yet.
I did not understand this a few weeks ago either when he declared himself president after the elections.
Not saying he should be arrested btw,,just to be clear.

As the leader of congress he has the constitutional right to do this. But more then that the US europe canada and over 60 other countries have said hands off or penalty of war.



I did not know that but even then I still don't understand. If foreign countries have that kind of leverage then why don't they force him to resign directly instead?
It makes no sense to me that he has not been arrested,keeping him around is hardly better from maduro,s &co perspective? It keeps the whole situation unstable and if quaido is not going to stop till maduro resigns then what is the future plan (for both sides).
Like in any other country,even the usa or Europe,he would have been arrested. I guess there is a lot more going on then the news that makes the headlines here.



No if this happened in europe it would go to a court they both agree to challenge the election and long before that maduro would have been arrested for corruption.

Here Maduro is authoritarian dictator so he makes all the rules and since he pays off the military they stand by him. If you want more details you can read lots of the article s that have been posted or even the wikipedia page is not bad for an overview.
Tell that to the Catalonian politicians who are in jail right now.
JimmiC
Profile Blog Joined May 2011
Canada22817 Posts
May 02 2019 02:04 GMT
#416
--- Nuked ---
JimmiC
Profile Blog Joined May 2011
Canada22817 Posts
May 02 2019 02:11 GMT
#417
--- Nuked ---
GreenHorizons
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States23879 Posts
Last Edited: 2019-05-02 03:07:35
May 02 2019 03:07 GMT
#418
You keep saying "the world agrees" as if the overwhelming majority of countries in the world haven't agreed that Guaido is a legitimate interim president.
"People like to look at history and think 'If that was me back then, I would have...' We're living through history, and the truth is, whatever you are doing now is probably what you would have done then" "Scratch a Liberal..."
JimmiC
Profile Blog Joined May 2011
Canada22817 Posts
May 02 2019 03:53 GMT
#419
--- Nuked ---
GreenHorizons
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States23879 Posts
Last Edited: 2019-05-02 05:19:34
May 02 2019 04:06 GMT
#420
On May 02 2019 12:53 JimmiC wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 02 2019 12:07 GreenHorizons wrote:
You keep saying "the world agrees" as if the overwhelming majority of countries in the world haven't agreed that Guaido is a legitimate interim president.

Mainly because it is tiring to write out exactly who does and who doesnt. Of those who have weighed in which is about 75 it is 65-10 or so and of the 65 they are all democracy's and of the 10 there is like 2. If you would like I can write them all out again. Might be a useful excerise since it is not just you and me. Ill do it tomorrow for you.


It's 65 - ~130 with 130 not recognizing Guaido.

EDIT: realized I shouldn't trust your numbers presuming you wouldn't get it wrong.

The only one I found with 65 supporting Guaido had 50 supporting Maduro, not 10 as you say.

But the United Nations, which still recognises Nicolas Maduro as Venezuela's president, has called for talks.

About 50 UN-member countries have pledged their support to Maduro, while 65 countries, including the US, stand behind the opposition leader, Juan Guaido, who has declared himself interim president.


www.aljazeera.com
"People like to look at history and think 'If that was me back then, I would have...' We're living through history, and the truth is, whatever you are doing now is probably what you would have done then" "Scratch a Liberal..."
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