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On September 26 2018 00:54 Dangermousecatdog wrote:
On September 26 2018 00:32 chocorush wrote: By fair, I meant the kind of interview he wanted.
That's a very strange definition of fair. In fact it's kind of the opposite of fair.
I forgot my sarcasm quotes.
I think you also ran into the ongoing debate about what is fair for victim and accused when it comes to sexual assault allegations. It is a topic of open debate and a change in status quo at this time. So what might seem to be obviously sarcastic is also a real argument someone else is making right now.
On September 25 2018 23:26 Plansix wrote: I still surprised that Kavanaugh went on Fox News last night to give the classic political TV interview that most politicians give. It isn’t the move that any judicial nominee has pulled in modern history. And he did it on the network that not going to reach the majority of people skeptical about him. Playing to the base isn’t going to make him more likely to be confirmed.
This was also a really weird play to me. They treat it like a politician in the middle of a scandal instead of simply dismissing it and denying everything. All the interview did was add credibility to his accusers and throw away any narrative that might help (like the accusation coming after the vetting process).
On September 26 2018 00:21 chocorush wrote:
On September 25 2018 23:26 Plansix wrote: I still surprised that Kavanaugh went on Fox News last night to give the classic political TV interview that most politicians give. It isn’t the move that any judicial nominee has pulled in modern history. And he did it on the network that not going to reach the majority of people skeptical about him. Playing to the base isn’t going to make him more likely to be confirmed.
I don't think any other network would have given him the fair interview that he wanted, so going on Fox is still going to be more coverage than the alternatives.
You're never going to get a "fair" interview when you have any sexual harassment or assault allegations against you. It doesn't get better until at the very best case years later for you.
Kavanaugh seems to have gotten this far by flying under the radar of almost everyone
This has been the case for many people on Trump's administration. It is no surprise to see the same thing here. A bunch of shit heads thought being in government was just some ezpz free ride bullshit, so they tried to do it themselves. Getting slammed. Lives ruined. I love it.
The comeuppance has been satisfying, though less so when viewed alongside all the innocent folk who have had their lives destroyed by these people and their incompetence.
On September 25 2018 23:26 Plansix wrote: I still surprised that Kavanaugh went on Fox News last night to give the classic political TV interview that most politicians give. It isn’t the move that any judicial nominee has pulled in modern history. And he did it on the network that not going to reach the majority of people skeptical about him. Playing to the base isn’t going to make him more likely to be confirmed.
This was also a really weird play to me. They treat it like a politician in the middle of a scandal instead of simply dismissing it and denying everything. All the interview did was add credibility to his accusers and throw away any narrative that might help (like the accusation coming after the vetting process).
On September 26 2018 00:21 chocorush wrote:
On September 25 2018 23:26 Plansix wrote: I still surprised that Kavanaugh went on Fox News last night to give the classic political TV interview that most politicians give. It isn’t the move that any judicial nominee has pulled in modern history. And he did it on the network that not going to reach the majority of people skeptical about him. Playing to the base isn’t going to make him more likely to be confirmed.
I don't think any other network would have given him the fair interview that he wanted, so going on Fox is still going to be more coverage than the alternatives.
You're never going to get a "fair" interview when you have any sexual harassment or assault allegations against you. It doesn't get better until at the very best case years later for you.
Kavanaugh seems to have gotten this far by flying under the radar of almost everyone
This has been the case for many people on Trump's administration. It is no surprise to see the same thing here. A bunch of shit heads thought being in government was just some ezpz free ride bullshit, so they tried to do it themselves. Getting slammed. Lives ruined. I love it.
Is Brett's life ruined, though? I mean, he isn't going to lose his regular judging job. He just won't get a massive promotion. I haven't heard that he and his family are receiving death threats or have gone into hiding like his accusers are.
On September 25 2018 23:26 Plansix wrote: I still surprised that Kavanaugh went on Fox News last night to give the classic political TV interview that most politicians give. It isn’t the move that any judicial nominee has pulled in modern history. And he did it on the network that not going to reach the majority of people skeptical about him. Playing to the base isn’t going to make him more likely to be confirmed.
This was also a really weird play to me. They treat it like a politician in the middle of a scandal instead of simply dismissing it and denying everything. All the interview did was add credibility to his accusers and throw away any narrative that might help (like the accusation coming after the vetting process).
On September 26 2018 00:21 chocorush wrote:
On September 25 2018 23:26 Plansix wrote: I still surprised that Kavanaugh went on Fox News last night to give the classic political TV interview that most politicians give. It isn’t the move that any judicial nominee has pulled in modern history. And he did it on the network that not going to reach the majority of people skeptical about him. Playing to the base isn’t going to make him more likely to be confirmed.
I don't think any other network would have given him the fair interview that he wanted, so going on Fox is still going to be more coverage than the alternatives.
You're never going to get a "fair" interview when you have any sexual harassment or assault allegations against you. It doesn't get better until at the very best case years later for you.
Kavanaugh seems to have gotten this far by flying under the radar of almost everyone
This has been the case for many people on Trump's administration. It is no surprise to see the same thing here. A bunch of shit heads thought being in government was just some ezpz free ride bullshit, so they tried to do it themselves. Getting slammed. Lives ruined. I love it.
Is Brett's life ruined, though? I mean, he isn't going to lose his regular judging job. He just won't get a massive promotion. I haven't heard that he and his family are receiving death threats or have gone into hiding like his accusers are.
I would argue that being outted as a rapist who lied about his sex life to his wife is somewhat like a ruined life. Knowing your kids know you are a piece of shit is something that can't be fixed. More stuff just keeps coming out. We are likely not done yet. If Avenatti ends up delivering the jewel he says he has, Kavanaugh's personal life is going to take a serious hit.
Not ruined in quite the same way as Manafort or Cohen, but I would say Kavanaugh will likely walk away from this in a worse position than he started in. At this point, I don't think he will be confirmed unless Ford is a no-show and McConnell is able to make a vote happen. Ford shitting the bed is the only way this goes well for Kavanaugh.
Which...seems possible, if not likely. I am giving Ford showing up 45% odds at this point.
On September 25 2018 23:26 Plansix wrote: I still surprised that Kavanaugh went on Fox News last night to give the classic political TV interview that most politicians give. It isn’t the move that any judicial nominee has pulled in modern history. And he did it on the network that not going to reach the majority of people skeptical about him. Playing to the base isn’t going to make him more likely to be confirmed.
This was also a really weird play to me. They treat it like a politician in the middle of a scandal instead of simply dismissing it and denying everything. All the interview did was add credibility to his accusers and throw away any narrative that might help (like the accusation coming after the vetting process).
On September 26 2018 00:21 chocorush wrote:
On September 25 2018 23:26 Plansix wrote: I still surprised that Kavanaugh went on Fox News last night to give the classic political TV interview that most politicians give. It isn’t the move that any judicial nominee has pulled in modern history. And he did it on the network that not going to reach the majority of people skeptical about him. Playing to the base isn’t going to make him more likely to be confirmed.
I don't think any other network would have given him the fair interview that he wanted, so going on Fox is still going to be more coverage than the alternatives.
You're never going to get a "fair" interview when you have any sexual harassment or assault allegations against you. It doesn't get better until at the very best case years later for you.
Kavanaugh seems to have gotten this far by flying under the radar of almost everyone
This has been the case for many people on Trump's administration. It is no surprise to see the same thing here. A bunch of shit heads thought being in government was just some ezpz free ride bullshit, so they tried to do it themselves. Getting slammed. Lives ruined. I love it.
Is Brett's life ruined, though? I mean, he isn't going to lose his regular judging job. He just won't get a massive promotion. I haven't heard that he and his family are receiving death threats or have gone into hiding like his accusers are.
I would argue that being outted as a rapist who lied about his sex life to his wife is somewhat like a ruined life. Knowing your kids know you are a piece of shit is something that can't be fixed. More stuff just keeps coming out. We are likely not done yet. If Avenatti ends up delivering the jewel he says he has, Kavanaugh's personal life is going to take a serious hit.
Not ruined in quite the same way as Manafort or Cohen, but I would say Kavanaugh will likely walk away from this in a worse position than he started in. At this point, I don't think he will be confirmed unless Ford is a no-show and McConnell is able to make a vote happen. Ford shitting the bed is the only way this goes well for Kavanaugh.
Which...seems possible, if not likely. I am giving Ford showing up 45% odds at this point.
Ford has to show up at this point right? There's no way she actually bails
On September 25 2018 23:26 Plansix wrote: I still surprised that Kavanaugh went on Fox News last night to give the classic political TV interview that most politicians give. It isn’t the move that any judicial nominee has pulled in modern history. And he did it on the network that not going to reach the majority of people skeptical about him. Playing to the base isn’t going to make him more likely to be confirmed.
This was also a really weird play to me. They treat it like a politician in the middle of a scandal instead of simply dismissing it and denying everything. All the interview did was add credibility to his accusers and throw away any narrative that might help (like the accusation coming after the vetting process).
On September 26 2018 00:21 chocorush wrote:
On September 25 2018 23:26 Plansix wrote: I still surprised that Kavanaugh went on Fox News last night to give the classic political TV interview that most politicians give. It isn’t the move that any judicial nominee has pulled in modern history. And he did it on the network that not going to reach the majority of people skeptical about him. Playing to the base isn’t going to make him more likely to be confirmed.
I don't think any other network would have given him the fair interview that he wanted, so going on Fox is still going to be more coverage than the alternatives.
You're never going to get a "fair" interview when you have any sexual harassment or assault allegations against you. It doesn't get better until at the very best case years later for you.
Kavanaugh seems to have gotten this far by flying under the radar of almost everyone
This has been the case for many people on Trump's administration. It is no surprise to see the same thing here. A bunch of shit heads thought being in government was just some ezpz free ride bullshit, so they tried to do it themselves. Getting slammed. Lives ruined. I love it.
Is Brett's life ruined, though? I mean, he isn't going to lose his regular judging job. He just won't get a massive promotion. I haven't heard that he and his family are receiving death threats or have gone into hiding like his accusers are.
I would argue that being outted as a rapist who lied about his sex life to his wife is somewhat like a ruined life. Knowing your kids know you are a piece of shit is something that can't be fixed. More stuff just keeps coming out. We are likely not done yet. If Avenatti ends up delivering the jewel he says he has, Kavanaugh's personal life is going to take a serious hit.
Not ruined in quite the same way as Manafort or Cohen, but I would say Kavanaugh will likely walk away from this in a worse position than he started in. At this point, I don't think he will be confirmed unless Ford is a no-show and McConnell is able to make a vote happen. Ford shitting the bed is the only way this goes well for Kavanaugh.
Which...seems possible, if not likely. I am giving Ford showing up 45% odds at this point.
Ford has to show up at this point right? There's no way she actually bails
Well if she refuses to fly, she is no longer able to arrive on time. Her only option is to fly. But she refuses to fly?
A lot seems up in the air. If she bails, it is super gg.
Why do people keep thinking Ford won't show up? Why would she announce when she left to DC if she's constantly receiving death threats? There's no logic in notifying press or anybody that she's arrived in DC.
McConnell did a number last night trying to rally the troops of the Senate. The problem for Ford is the party leadership like McConnell is acting she is just a problem to be overcome. If they are going to confirm him no matter what she says on Thursday, why show up to give them political cover? She wanted an investigation, not a public hearing. It would have been easy to avoid if McConnell has just shut his mouth.
On September 26 2018 02:30 farvacola wrote: Murkowski has apparently made a public statement to the effect that Kavanaugh's accusers should be taken seriously, so that's encouraging.
McConnell's speech last night about staying the course and all that is the thing a coach makes when the team way behind. He knows the votes don't exist right now and these hearings are unlike to change that calculus.
And that, my friends, is what being literally the laughingstock of the world means.
Looks like world leaders are less encline to take Trump grotesque humbugs seriously than the GOP base. That’s encouraging.
It also makes that tweet from a few years ago deliciously ironic:
I genuinely wonder if the art of transforming this kind of grand self congratulations into a political tool will last after he is gone. I don’t recall having seen anything like this in my lifetime. It might have to do with Trump’s voters being who they are, or a redefinition of what is ridiculous and what is efficient.
I still have a bad feeling about the hearings. I think they may go horribly for Ford even if she is telling the truth given the conditions. We'll see.
As for Kavanaugh he said in the interview last night he was a virgin through HS. This is despite the lurid content of his yearbook and all the statements from people who knew him as being wild (his yearbook is full of references to women despite going to an all boys school too). His insistence on painting himself as an angel in HS despite the evidence to the contrary should concern any of his defenders.
On September 26 2018 02:45 On_Slaught wrote: I still have a bad feeling about the hearings. I think they may go horribly for Ford even if she is telling the truth given the conditions. We'll see.
As for Kavanaugh he said in the interview last night he was a virgin through HS. This is despite the lurid content of his yearbook and all the statements from people who knew him as being wild (his yearbook is full of references to women despite going to an all boys school too). His insistence on painting himself as an angel in HS despite the evidence to the contrary should concern any of his defenders.
That thing is a bold claim because there are already people who knew him in college saying that isn’t what he told them. It is going to take one woman to contradict that and blow up any trust he has left.
On September 26 2018 02:45 On_Slaught wrote: I still have a bad feeling about the hearings. I think they may go horribly for Ford even if she is telling the truth given the conditions. We'll see.
As for Kavanaugh he said in the interview last night he was a virgin through HS. This is despite the lurid content of his yearbook and all the statements from people who knew him as being wild (his yearbook is full of references to women despite going to an all boys school too). His insistence on painting himself as an angel in HS despite the evidence to the contrary should concern any of his defenders.
That thing is a bold claim because there are already people who knew him in college saying that isn’t what he told them. It is going to take one woman to contradict that and blow up any trust he has left.
For what its worth, few 'cool' people in college will tell their friends they are a virgin. They all boast about their score.
Even assuming Kavanaugh is innocent here, the way he and his supporters are going about refuting the allegations don't exactly convince me he's a top legal mind.
On September 26 2018 02:45 On_Slaught wrote: I still have a bad feeling about the hearings. I think they may go horribly for Ford even if she is telling the truth given the conditions. We'll see.
As for Kavanaugh he said in the interview last night he was a virgin through HS. This is despite the lurid content of his yearbook and all the statements from people who knew him as being wild (his yearbook is full of references to women despite going to an all boys school too). His insistence on painting himself as an angel in HS despite the evidence to the contrary should concern any of his defenders.
That thing is a bold claim because there are already people who knew him in college saying that isn’t what he told them. It is going to take one woman to contradict that and blow up any trust he has left.
Source which includes his quote about not having sexual intercourse for completeness sake. This seems like a pretty easy way to get him if false.
On September 26 2018 02:56 ticklishmusic wrote: Even assuming Kavanaugh is innocent here, the way he and his supporters are going about refuting the allegations don't exactly convince me he's a top legal mind.
He's definitely not a distinguished legal writer and as we're beginning to see, he likely got where he did because his politics matched up with those who paved the path for him. Many FedSoc "wonks" are shown to be incredibly out of their depth when prompted to engage with anything beyond their canned speaking points. This is why judges like Posner or Karen Moore are so deserving of praise; political viewpoint notwithstanding, they plainly show why they are respected with their words, both spoken and written.
To further emphasize the point, look up pretty much any of recently appointed FedSoc darling Judge Ho's opinions out of the Fifth Circuit. Dude writes like a Fox and Friends stenographer.
EPT
