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I think the odds that Trump loses his primary if it comes down to that are super low, but man would it be hilarious.
Being an incumbent + his thoroughly rabid base will be enough slander/smear/childishly nickname whatever more reasonable candidates might be put up.
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I find it amusing how many people assume he will still be in office to run in 2020. That looks less likely with every passing day.
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On July 23 2018 01:20 Ayaz2810 wrote:
I find it amusing how many people assume he will still be in office to run in 2020. That looks less likely with every passing day.
Until he isn't, assume he will be and plan/think/act accordingly.
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I still think there is a none 0 chance he will simply not run again and retire a 'winner'.
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On July 23 2018 01:20 Ayaz2810 wrote:
I find it amusing how many people assume he will still be in office to run in 2020. That looks less likely with every passing day.
By now we should stop assuming Trump is going to get what should be coming to him and just hope for the best.
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On July 22 2018 23:56 Nebuchad wrote:Show nested quote +On July 22 2018 22:16 Longshank wrote:On July 22 2018 19:33 Nebuchad wrote:On July 22 2018 19:21 Longshank wrote:
If the American left truly believes, and that seems partially to be the case, that Hillary is just as bad as Trump then I'm actually stunned. In my ignorance I've always chalked it up as recentment over how the primaries was run. As a EU leftie, I can only hope that you guys never get anywhere near the White House, which is a shame since I think Sanders was the best thing in a long time for US politics. Can you at least acknowledge that the logic that's been used to justify neoliberal support ensures that the left never gets in power, which seems like a counterproductive thing for a leftist to want? First off, I'm in deep water here since I'm really not familiar enough with US politics to be discussing this, but from an outsider's perspective, what exactly is the game plan for the left? How do they expect to ever win a general election without the support of other blue voters? I get that it's not easy being an American socialist but in my eyes, the most realistic way would be to, 8, 16 or 32 years from now, drum up enough support for a Bernie-esque candidate in the primaries and hope enough democrat voters rally behind their candidate in the general election. That would require those voters not to act with the same pettiness that the left showed in 2016 however. From reading certain left posters posts for the last few years, I get the feeling that they're more interested in 'sticking it to the neoliberals' than doing anything constructive. Of course, one option would be to tear down the political structure to the ground and build from there - in wchich case I wish you the best of luck! It's really hard for me to envision a version of 2020 where a decent progressive candidate doesn't crush Trump. Don't think that'll take 32 years and I agree the hard part is to beat the liberals within their own party. As far as game plan that's probably still the best option though: win some primaries and push the democratic party left. If they succeed in doing that, the liberals should then immediately go "Did we say unity? Woops we meant that only when we're united under our ideas" and split into a third party, at least that's what I would expect to happen. When there's a third party for liberals the left should then be able to compete for the specific batch of voters who go for republicans because they despise the liberal elites, as the liberal elites will be perceived to be in that third party. Bunch of things can happen in the meantime though, don't think they should be doing very precise battle plans when they have such an advantageous position in terms of image right now.
In a world of first past the post, this is going to split the voted of the liberals much more than it's going to split votes from conservatives, ensuring another republican win. This is one of the key things that needs to change in the US political system for there to be even a resemblance of fairness and reason going forward.
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On July 22 2018 19:33 Nebuchad wrote:Show nested quote +On July 22 2018 19:21 Longshank wrote:
If the American left truly believes, and that seems partially to be the case, that Hillary is just as bad as Trump then I'm actually stunned. In my ignorance I've always chalked it up as recentment over how the primaries was run. As a EU leftie, I can only hope that you guys never get anywhere near the White House, which is a shame since I think Sanders was the best thing in a long time for US politics. Can you at least acknowledge that the logic that's been used to justify neoliberal support ensures that the left never gets in power, which seems like a counterproductive thing for a leftist to want?
All I'm getting is that they just genuinely think this is best. That maybe if we vote Democrat long enough we might see some of the progress we've seen from Democratic strongholds like Chicago or Baltimore.
I mean it's not that I don't understand their argument, it just really seems they don't understand why that isn't an option or "progress".
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On July 23 2018 04:04 Excludos wrote:Show nested quote +On July 22 2018 23:56 Nebuchad wrote:On July 22 2018 22:16 Longshank wrote:On July 22 2018 19:33 Nebuchad wrote:On July 22 2018 19:21 Longshank wrote:
If the American left truly believes, and that seems partially to be the case, that Hillary is just as bad as Trump then I'm actually stunned. In my ignorance I've always chalked it up as recentment over how the primaries was run. As a EU leftie, I can only hope that you guys never get anywhere near the White House, which is a shame since I think Sanders was the best thing in a long time for US politics. Can you at least acknowledge that the logic that's been used to justify neoliberal support ensures that the left never gets in power, which seems like a counterproductive thing for a leftist to want? First off, I'm in deep water here since I'm really not familiar enough with US politics to be discussing this, but from an outsider's perspective, what exactly is the game plan for the left? How do they expect to ever win a general election without the support of other blue voters? I get that it's not easy being an American socialist but in my eyes, the most realistic way would be to, 8, 16 or 32 years from now, drum up enough support for a Bernie-esque candidate in the primaries and hope enough democrat voters rally behind their candidate in the general election. That would require those voters not to act with the same pettiness that the left showed in 2016 however. From reading certain left posters posts for the last few years, I get the feeling that they're more interested in 'sticking it to the neoliberals' than doing anything constructive. Of course, one option would be to tear down the political structure to the ground and build from there - in wchich case I wish you the best of luck! It's really hard for me to envision a version of 2020 where a decent progressive candidate doesn't crush Trump. Don't think that'll take 32 years and I agree the hard part is to beat the liberals within their own party. As far as game plan that's probably still the best option though: win some primaries and push the democratic party left. If they succeed in doing that, the liberals should then immediately go "Did we say unity? Woops we meant that only when we're united under our ideas" and split into a third party, at least that's what I would expect to happen. When there's a third party for liberals the left should then be able to compete for the specific batch of voters who go for republicans because they despise the liberal elites, as the liberal elites will be perceived to be in that third party. Bunch of things can happen in the meantime though, don't think they should be doing very precise battle plans when they have such an advantageous position in terms of image right now. In a world of first past the post, this is going to split the voted of the liberals much more than it's going to split votes from conservatives, ensuring another republican win. This is one of the key things that needs to change in the US political system for there to be even a resemblance of fairness and reason going forward.
Again in this scenario it's the liberals forming a third party, if they don't want to "ensure another republican win" they can "unite" with us. I just don't believe for a second that it would happen.
Incidentally that's also the only scenario where you might get rid of first past the post, cause as long as the liberals and the republicans benefit from such a system as they do now they're not going to get rid of it.
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On July 23 2018 01:20 Ayaz2810 wrote:
I find it amusing how many people assume he will still be in office to run in 2020. That looks less likely with every passing day.
I honestly don't see how he could be realistically removed from office, unless you're referring to him dying of old age/ bad health in office? Enough Republican Congressmen have his back to make impeachment impossible, and even his new SCJ appointee was selected because he's pro- "let the president decide when and where he gets investigated".
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On July 23 2018 05:14 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:Show nested quote +On July 23 2018 01:20 Ayaz2810 wrote:
I find it amusing how many people assume he will still be in office to run in 2020. That looks less likely with every passing day. I honestly don't see how he could be realistically removed from office, unless you're referring to him dying of old age/ bad health in office? Enough Republican Congressmen have his back to make impeachment impossible, and even his new SCJ appointee was selected because he's pro- "let the president decide when and where he gets investigated".
it's theoretically possible for him to be removed, just not likely at the moment.
the thing about support of this kind is it's very unstable, they'll back him as long as it's in their interest to do so; but if situations change that support can disappear very fast.
i'ts kinda like that confederate flag business a fwe years ago; when a tipping point is reached, a whole lot can change awful fast.
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On July 22 2018 23:56 Nebuchad wrote:Show nested quote +On July 22 2018 22:16 Longshank wrote:On July 22 2018 19:33 Nebuchad wrote:On July 22 2018 19:21 Longshank wrote:
If the American left truly believes, and that seems partially to be the case, that Hillary is just as bad as Trump then I'm actually stunned. In my ignorance I've always chalked it up as recentment over how the primaries was run. As a EU leftie, I can only hope that you guys never get anywhere near the White House, which is a shame since I think Sanders was the best thing in a long time for US politics. Can you at least acknowledge that the logic that's been used to justify neoliberal support ensures that the left never gets in power, which seems like a counterproductive thing for a leftist to want? First off, I'm in deep water here since I'm really not familiar enough with US politics to be discussing this, but from an outsider's perspective, what exactly is the game plan for the left? How do they expect to ever win a general election without the support of other blue voters? I get that it's not easy being an American socialist but in my eyes, the most realistic way would be to, 8, 16 or 32 years from now, drum up enough support for a Bernie-esque candidate in the primaries and hope enough democrat voters rally behind their candidate in the general election. That would require those voters not to act with the same pettiness that the left showed in 2016 however. From reading certain left posters posts for the last few years, I get the feeling that they're more interested in 'sticking it to the neoliberals' than doing anything constructive. Of course, one option would be to tear down the political structure to the ground and build from there - in wchich case I wish you the best of luck! It's really hard for me to envision a version of 2020 where a decent progressive candidate doesn't crush Trump. Don't think that'll take 32 years and I agree the hard part is to beat the liberals within their own party. As far as game plan that's probably still the best option though: win some primaries and push the democratic party left. If they succeed in doing that, the liberals should then immediately go "Did we say unity? Woops we meant that only when we're united under our ideas" and split into a third party, at least that's what I would expect to happen. When there's a third party for liberals the left should then be able to compete for the specific batch of voters who go for republicans because they despise the liberal elites, as the liberal elites will be perceived to be in that third party. Bunch of things can happen in the meantime though, don't think they should be doing very precise battle plans when they have such an advantageous position in terms of image right now.
How many Presidents have been unseated while the economy is on the rise and unemployment is down? Isn't that one of the most important indicators for re-election?
I don't know, man. I can see Trump winning very easily. His popularity numbers are at the highest they've been in a while, too, aren't they? Scandals don't seem to affect him in the slightest anymore, either. And he might be a shit President, but he's a good campaigner. Very good at spreading his (bullshit) message and sucking up the air time so it seems like he's the only thing worth paying attention to.
Plus I'm not sure he'll suffer as much from Republicans being unwilling to vote for him. He's the establishment now.
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On July 23 2018 05:14 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:Show nested quote +On July 23 2018 01:20 Ayaz2810 wrote:
I find it amusing how many people assume he will still be in office to run in 2020. That looks less likely with every passing day. I honestly don't see how he could be realistically removed from office, unless you're referring to him dying of old age/ bad health in office? Enough Republican Congressmen have his back to make impeachment impossible, and even his new SCJ appointee was selected because he's pro- "let the president decide when and where he gets investigated".
When the Mueller report comes down, Republican Congressmen will either do the right thing, or risk massive unrest and violence. I expect the system will work. Otherwise, you can expect an armed resistance. I think many people will feel that strongly. I think the American people as a whole still care and can save the country if it comes to it. Or I guess they could destroy it. Either way....
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On July 23 2018 05:19 zlefin wrote:Show nested quote +On July 23 2018 05:14 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On July 23 2018 01:20 Ayaz2810 wrote:
I find it amusing how many people assume he will still be in office to run in 2020. That looks less likely with every passing day. I honestly don't see how he could be realistically removed from office, unless you're referring to him dying of old age/ bad health in office? Enough Republican Congressmen have his back to make impeachment impossible, and even his new SCJ appointee was selected because he's pro- "let the president decide when and where he gets investigated". it's theoretically possible for him to be removed, just not likely at the moment. the thing about support of this kind is it's very unstable, they'll back him as long as it's in their interest to do so; but if situations change that support can disappear very fast. i'ts kinda like that confederate flag business a fwe years ago; when a tipping point is reached, a whole lot can change awful fast.
"Tipping point" is a perfect way of putting it. If evidence of conspiracy and other high crimes and misdemeanors comes to light, and nothing is done, that will be the tipping point you speak of.
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On July 23 2018 05:53 Ayaz2810 wrote:Show nested quote +On July 23 2018 05:14 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On July 23 2018 01:20 Ayaz2810 wrote:
I find it amusing how many people assume he will still be in office to run in 2020. That looks less likely with every passing day. I honestly don't see how he could be realistically removed from office, unless you're referring to him dying of old age/ bad health in office? Enough Republican Congressmen have his back to make impeachment impossible, and even his new SCJ appointee was selected because he's pro- "let the president decide when and where he gets investigated". When the Mueller report comes down, Republican Congressmen will either do the right thing, or risk massive unrest and violence. I expect the system will work. Otherwise, you can expect an armed resistance. I think many people will feel that strongly. I think the American people as a whole still care and can save the country if it comes to it. Or I guess they could destroy it. Either way....
The chances of the Mueller report actually indicting Trump at this point are miniscule. It really is time to accept that as the likely reality.
And Mueller can arrest literally every person in Trump's campaign staff (and if guilty, he should) but unless he hits Trump, nobody is going to care. XDaunt has said straight up that nothing short of Trump indictment will make the Mueller investigation worthwhile.
As in, every other arrest is meaningless, as far as he's concerned.
The political capital to be made off of Mueller isn't a lot, I'm afraid. Your political environment's become too partisan and all-or-nothing for that.
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United States41984 Posts
On July 23 2018 05:55 Ayaz2810 wrote:Show nested quote +On July 23 2018 05:19 zlefin wrote:On July 23 2018 05:14 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On July 23 2018 01:20 Ayaz2810 wrote:
I find it amusing how many people assume he will still be in office to run in 2020. That looks less likely with every passing day. I honestly don't see how he could be realistically removed from office, unless you're referring to him dying of old age/ bad health in office? Enough Republican Congressmen have his back to make impeachment impossible, and even his new SCJ appointee was selected because he's pro- "let the president decide when and where he gets investigated". it's theoretically possible for him to be removed, just not likely at the moment. the thing about support of this kind is it's very unstable, they'll back him as long as it's in their interest to do so; but if situations change that support can disappear very fast. i'ts kinda like that confederate flag business a fwe years ago; when a tipping point is reached, a whole lot can change awful fast. "Tipping point" is a perfect way of putting it. If evidence of conspiracy and other high crimes and misdemeanors comes to light, and nothing is done, that will be the tipping point you speak of.
Doubt it. The system is fucked.
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On July 23 2018 07:44 KwarK wrote:Show nested quote +On July 23 2018 05:55 Ayaz2810 wrote:On July 23 2018 05:19 zlefin wrote:On July 23 2018 05:14 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On July 23 2018 01:20 Ayaz2810 wrote:
I find it amusing how many people assume he will still be in office to run in 2020. That looks less likely with every passing day. I honestly don't see how he could be realistically removed from office, unless you're referring to him dying of old age/ bad health in office? Enough Republican Congressmen have his back to make impeachment impossible, and even his new SCJ appointee was selected because he's pro- "let the president decide when and where he gets investigated". it's theoretically possible for him to be removed, just not likely at the moment. the thing about support of this kind is it's very unstable, they'll back him as long as it's in their interest to do so; but if situations change that support can disappear very fast. i'ts kinda like that confederate flag business a fwe years ago; when a tipping point is reached, a whole lot can change awful fast. "Tipping point" is a perfect way of putting it. If evidence of conspiracy and other high crimes and misdemeanors comes to light, and nothing is done, that will be the tipping point you speak of. Doubt it. The system is fucked.
Pretty sure if we just vote for corporate sponsored Democrats dependent on and exploitative of that system it should sort itself in a few generations. At least that's what people keep telling me.
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On July 23 2018 07:46 GreenHorizons wrote:Show nested quote +On July 23 2018 07:44 KwarK wrote:On July 23 2018 05:55 Ayaz2810 wrote:On July 23 2018 05:19 zlefin wrote:On July 23 2018 05:14 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On July 23 2018 01:20 Ayaz2810 wrote:
I find it amusing how many people assume he will still be in office to run in 2020. That looks less likely with every passing day. I honestly don't see how he could be realistically removed from office, unless you're referring to him dying of old age/ bad health in office? Enough Republican Congressmen have his back to make impeachment impossible, and even his new SCJ appointee was selected because he's pro- "let the president decide when and where he gets investigated". it's theoretically possible for him to be removed, just not likely at the moment. the thing about support of this kind is it's very unstable, they'll back him as long as it's in their interest to do so; but if situations change that support can disappear very fast. i'ts kinda like that confederate flag business a fwe years ago; when a tipping point is reached, a whole lot can change awful fast. "Tipping point" is a perfect way of putting it. If evidence of conspiracy and other high crimes and misdemeanors comes to light, and nothing is done, that will be the tipping point you speak of. Doubt it. The system is fucked. Pretty sure if we just vote for corporate sponsored Democrats dependent on and exploitative of that system it should sort itself in a few generations. At least that's what people keep telling me. No one has told you that.
The system is fucked and will stay fucked for the foreseeable future because of the way it is set up.
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On July 23 2018 07:52 Gorsameth wrote:Show nested quote +On July 23 2018 07:46 GreenHorizons wrote:On July 23 2018 07:44 KwarK wrote:On July 23 2018 05:55 Ayaz2810 wrote:On July 23 2018 05:19 zlefin wrote:On July 23 2018 05:14 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On July 23 2018 01:20 Ayaz2810 wrote:
I find it amusing how many people assume he will still be in office to run in 2020. That looks less likely with every passing day. I honestly don't see how he could be realistically removed from office, unless you're referring to him dying of old age/ bad health in office? Enough Republican Congressmen have his back to make impeachment impossible, and even his new SCJ appointee was selected because he's pro- "let the president decide when and where he gets investigated". it's theoretically possible for him to be removed, just not likely at the moment. the thing about support of this kind is it's very unstable, they'll back him as long as it's in their interest to do so; but if situations change that support can disappear very fast. i'ts kinda like that confederate flag business a fwe years ago; when a tipping point is reached, a whole lot can change awful fast. "Tipping point" is a perfect way of putting it. If evidence of conspiracy and other high crimes and misdemeanors comes to light, and nothing is done, that will be the tipping point you speak of. Doubt it. The system is fucked. Pretty sure if we just vote for corporate sponsored Democrats dependent on and exploitative of that system it should sort itself in a few generations. At least that's what people keep telling me. No one has told you that. The system is fucked and will stay fucked for the foreseeable future because of the way it is set up.
Yes, they, and you have. I suppose you're clarifying that it was in fact a fruitless dream meant instead to perpetuate it.
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On July 23 2018 07:53 GreenHorizons wrote:Show nested quote +On July 23 2018 07:52 Gorsameth wrote:On July 23 2018 07:46 GreenHorizons wrote:On July 23 2018 07:44 KwarK wrote:On July 23 2018 05:55 Ayaz2810 wrote:On July 23 2018 05:19 zlefin wrote:On July 23 2018 05:14 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On July 23 2018 01:20 Ayaz2810 wrote:
I find it amusing how many people assume he will still be in office to run in 2020. That looks less likely with every passing day. I honestly don't see how he could be realistically removed from office, unless you're referring to him dying of old age/ bad health in office? Enough Republican Congressmen have his back to make impeachment impossible, and even his new SCJ appointee was selected because he's pro- "let the president decide when and where he gets investigated". it's theoretically possible for him to be removed, just not likely at the moment. the thing about support of this kind is it's very unstable, they'll back him as long as it's in their interest to do so; but if situations change that support can disappear very fast. i'ts kinda like that confederate flag business a fwe years ago; when a tipping point is reached, a whole lot can change awful fast. "Tipping point" is a perfect way of putting it. If evidence of conspiracy and other high crimes and misdemeanors comes to light, and nothing is done, that will be the tipping point you speak of. Doubt it. The system is fucked. Pretty sure if we just vote for corporate sponsored Democrats dependent on and exploitative of that system it should sort itself in a few generations. At least that's what people keep telling me. No one has told you that. The system is fucked and will stay fucked for the foreseeable future because of the way it is set up. Yes, they, and you have. I suppose you're clarifying that it was in fact a fruitless dream meant instead to perpetuate it.
The discussion we just had was about general policy. Election reform never entered into it.
If you seriously want large scale election reforms your much better off looking at starting a revolution then a political movement.
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On July 23 2018 07:56 Gorsameth wrote:Show nested quote +On July 23 2018 07:53 GreenHorizons wrote:On July 23 2018 07:52 Gorsameth wrote:On July 23 2018 07:46 GreenHorizons wrote:On July 23 2018 07:44 KwarK wrote:On July 23 2018 05:55 Ayaz2810 wrote:On July 23 2018 05:19 zlefin wrote:On July 23 2018 05:14 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On July 23 2018 01:20 Ayaz2810 wrote:
I find it amusing how many people assume he will still be in office to run in 2020. That looks less likely with every passing day. I honestly don't see how he could be realistically removed from office, unless you're referring to him dying of old age/ bad health in office? Enough Republican Congressmen have his back to make impeachment impossible, and even his new SCJ appointee was selected because he's pro- "let the president decide when and where he gets investigated". it's theoretically possible for him to be removed, just not likely at the moment. the thing about support of this kind is it's very unstable, they'll back him as long as it's in their interest to do so; but if situations change that support can disappear very fast. i'ts kinda like that confederate flag business a fwe years ago; when a tipping point is reached, a whole lot can change awful fast. "Tipping point" is a perfect way of putting it. If evidence of conspiracy and other high crimes and misdemeanors comes to light, and nothing is done, that will be the tipping point you speak of. Doubt it. The system is fucked. Pretty sure if we just vote for corporate sponsored Democrats dependent on and exploitative of that system it should sort itself in a few generations. At least that's what people keep telling me. No one has told you that. The system is fucked and will stay fucked for the foreseeable future because of the way it is set up. Yes, they, and you have. I suppose you're clarifying that it was in fact a fruitless dream meant instead to perpetuate it. The discussion we just had was about general policy. Election reform never entered into it. If you seriously want large scale election reforms your much better off looking at starting a revolution then a political movement.
I don't know what you think we were talking about, but I was trying to explain to you why your calls for supporting corporate Democrats in a lesser of two evilism were moving us away from progress and not toward it. It seems you either didn't understand or now agree with me and disagree with your previous argument.
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