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Can't decide if I want to make money from betting on the US economy collapsing into itself, losing world wide trade, or feel bad about helping Trump to achieve his goals of turning america into a post soviet failed state that is to be sliced up to the mega wealthy.
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On March 04 2025 17:42 JimmyJRaynor wrote:https://apnews.com/article/trump-tariffs-canada-mexico-china-643086a6dc7ff716d876b3c83e3255b0Mexico has not announced any retaliation. Canada retaliated immediately. I think Canada is making a mistake. I think the Premier of Ontario is making the biggest mistakes. Canada has not been the USA's "best friend" for a very long time. Show nested quote +On March 04 2025 17:38 Simberto wrote:On March 04 2025 17:30 JimmyJRaynor wrote:Welp, Canada is fucked. All the jobs that left upstate New York and Michigan in the 60s, 70s, and 80s will be coming back home. https://apnews.com/article/trump-tariffs-canada-mexico-china-643086a6dc7ff716d876b3c83e3255b0On March 04 2025 17:09 Simberto wrote:
Which is probably why Trump does all that shit with Canada. Canada is a country they border which doesn't have a lot of brown people in it. what a great comment. LOL. what shit does Trump do with Canada? In Canada, we don't consider Mexicans "brown". When I aced a math contest in my final year of high school i "browned out"; i'm jewish not mexican. "Canada should be the 51st state", "Governer Trudeau", "Fentanyl", "Tariffs" And it doesn't matter what you consider people to be. It matters what the racists in the US south consider people to be. And they consider mexicans brown. nah, my views are as valid as any other racist person's views in South Carolina or Georgia. a person being racist doesn't make their views more important than mine. Canada is more of a sub sovereign state than a country. Mexico is a real country. It has nothing to do with "brown people"... .whatever that is.
Your views are generally as valid as those of other people, yes.
But they are not as valid for the decisionmaking of the current president of the US.
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On March 04 2025 17:59 Simberto wrote:Show nested quote +On March 04 2025 17:42 JimmyJRaynor wrote:https://apnews.com/article/trump-tariffs-canada-mexico-china-643086a6dc7ff716d876b3c83e3255b0Mexico has not announced any retaliation. Canada retaliated immediately. I think Canada is making a mistake. I think the Premier of Ontario is making the biggest mistakes. Canada has not been the USA's "best friend" for a very long time. On March 04 2025 17:38 Simberto wrote:On March 04 2025 17:30 JimmyJRaynor wrote:Welp, Canada is fucked. All the jobs that left upstate New York and Michigan in the 60s, 70s, and 80s will be coming back home. https://apnews.com/article/trump-tariffs-canada-mexico-china-643086a6dc7ff716d876b3c83e3255b0On March 04 2025 17:09 Simberto wrote:
Which is probably why Trump does all that shit with Canada. Canada is a country they border which doesn't have a lot of brown people in it. what a great comment. LOL. what shit does Trump do with Canada? In Canada, we don't consider Mexicans "brown". When I aced a math contest in my final year of high school i "browned out"; i'm jewish not mexican. "Canada should be the 51st state", "Governer Trudeau", "Fentanyl", "Tariffs" And it doesn't matter what you consider people to be. It matters what the racists in the US south consider people to be. And they consider mexicans brown. nah, my views are as valid as any other racist person's views in South Carolina or Georgia. a person being racist doesn't make their views more important than mine. Canada is more of a sub sovereign state than a country. Mexico is a real country. It has nothing to do with "brown people"... .whatever that is. Your views are generally as valid as those of other people, yes. But they are not as valid for the decisionmaking of the current president of the US.
The president's #1 concern regarding Canada isn't the colour brown. its the black gold in Alberta that he wants.
Prior to March 3 Trump's tariff talk lowered investment in Canada and increased it in the USA. Trump has already won.
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On March 04 2025 15:57 GreenHorizons wrote:Show nested quote +On March 04 2025 15:08 Turbovolver wrote:
What's LibHorizon's dot points of what a leftist Project 2025 might look like?
Seems like it'd do a lot more good than antagonising until political numpties like me are trolled into shitting up the thread. LibHorizons: Beyond what I've already provided + Show Spoiler + primary Democrats that aren't showing sufficient will to fight/oppose the Trump admin's agenda a bit: Not every Democrat needs to be primaried. Those of us in safe blue states with Democrats unlikely to not clear the bar for not being primaried can direct resources toward places where the Democrats do need to be primaried. But we need a reasonably objective way to determine which is which.
Thus far Democrats and their supporters have failed to provide that. I'm open to hearing their ideas, but lacking that, I feel obligated as a progressive to present something that is better than nothing. Sooo...
Having a deliberate and executable plan (with a simple name like "project 2025" or "The New Deal" or whatever) and making support for it be the litmus test. You support it, no primary. You don't support it, you get primaried, and the party doesn't bail you out. The party should let Bernie, AOC, and The Squad lead the way in setting the terms, but they've all shown they can be very reasonable and show deference to the party generally. So it's not as if they would ignore the needs/preferences of the more centrist parts of the party entirely, or even to the degree they've been pushed to the periphery by said centrists. (which is more than anyone else) I'd elaborate by saying: Beyond the basic outline of a plan of how to even get the opportunity to vote for people like Bernie I have provided, I presume you're asking what are Bernie/AOC/The Squad's positions I currently think should take center stage? 1. Medicare for all 2. Green New Deal 3. You can pick
Basically, although I was more curious about like, what would be the dream rather than limiting the choice to only those who retain some power in the current political system. Of course the latter is probably more actionable.
I enjoyed reading those issues, though. The "how will this be paid for" section is great. The local socialists here talk explicitly about not fixing, but smashing the capitalist state, whereas Bernie's proposals feel more like the Nordic approach, a sort of "fairer capitalism" which feels more palatable to people living currently under capitalism.
Of course, maybe realistically you have to do some smashing when media moguls that would be getting hit by things like a wealth tax on assets over $32million are working to supress or deflate the message of a Bernie.
Winning such a primary also requires spending every possible second developing the opposition campaigns to any of these entrenched Democrats that are collaborating with or appeasing Trump/Musk.
Is this occurring in any significant extent, though? I thought the criticism was more that the Republicans and Democrats are essentially factions, both firmly at war with each other and putting that battle (and their interests as a faction more generally) ahead of the common people. That's certainly how things feel here, anyway. Also makes me think and is what makes me leery about the leftists that spend most of their breath on criticising the Dems (and also Republicans, but usually less breath is spent there lol). Starts to feel like just another faction, and this is also seen playing out when you go on, say, your local leftism reddit and see the various organisations all at war with one another.
Based on how aggressively the libs/Dems/ilk here are refusing to even try to work on how to improve the candidates Democrat voters have to choose from and/or ensure they have legitimate elections to engage in, I can't believe their rhetoric about wanting Democrats to be any better/more than they are being right now. Their inattentiveness is enabling the worst aspects of Democrats (and also the most fascist Republicans).
Well, people have never been good at suffering in the short term for the long-term good. Me included.
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Trump Admin will use the US military to attack a country/Region this year.
Might be Canada, might be Mexico.. or Greenland.. or Gaza.
Why? Fascist playbook 101.
If you can't turn them to your side, make the whole world their enemy (you are here), if they still don't play along, start atrocities and make them complicit (Invasion of _____, removing the US from NATO, and threatening former Partners with Nukes, if their bases get touched).
Being complicit in a crime is a great domestic tool of tying your political opposition's fate to your own wellbeing.
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On March 04 2025 16:02 baal wrote:Show nested quote +On March 04 2025 14:47 Husyelt wrote:On March 04 2025 14:35 baal wrote:On March 04 2025 11:58 KwarK wrote:
I’m betting Mexico because Iran can WMD. Depending on the speed of economic breakdown maybe by the end of the year.
They’ll announce some cross border operations and pretend it’s not war but instead policing of some kind. Mexico will protest but will do the Ukraine 2014 thing where you can’t actually stop the invading army and so you don’t mobilize and you don’t start openly firing missiles. Bad time to have family members in uniform. You think the US will actually invade Mexico and take land from us like Russia did to Ukraine? lmao Absolutely, it would start out as small incursions against cartels or what they claim are cartels. Mexico will have to engage at some point, and Trump will use that as an excuse to fully demilitarize much of the border. If that happens it would be an unmitigated disaster and the US would definitely lose after a few years, as turmoil and popular uprisings happen in every major city to stop the war, (and the army would definitely have major setbacks). Republicans telegraphed this even last year. So you think the US army will start blowing up civilians to force the Mexican government into declaring war so that they can annex like Sonora and Chihuahua or something? LMAO I wish I could open some polymarket style geopolitics betting market with only ppl from here, there are very unserious people in this thread, I guess if you really think Trump is the embodiment of the 4th reich these absurd scenarios don't sound as crazy to you but just think it through. If Trump were to wage an all out war against Mexico he would be immediately impeached and would for sure end up in prison, but lets go crazy and say he doesnt, ok now with 20% mexicans in the army you would see a split of insurrectionism within the army not to count the 40 million Mexicans living within the US borders that would make a 9/11 style attack every couple of days and then what, death camps for the 40 million lol. All this because they want to take a desert dryer than Arizona? and you think this is less risky than Iran because the might have WMD (they dont). Ok crazy scenarios aside, the US has already deployed troops to fight cartels before multiple times in latinamerica, and no they haven't taken any land nor killed civilians to start a war lol, so yeah if the US goes into Mexico (I hope they do), they can easily just do that, attack the cartels and defeat them with ease, they are disorganized militias and the only reason the Mexican army hasn't defeated them is because they are closely tied with the government so they don't want to, which is the main hurdle the US has always had and will continue to do so in trying to stop cartels, the government will do anything in its power to protect them, with intel, legally and politically.
It’s hard to tell how serious they are sometimes but if there were a betting market for the things they say I don’t think you would find anyone here to risk their money on it. So that leads me to believe that sharing their left-wing fan-fiction is more of a fun hobby as opposed to any serious beliefs.
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Hrmm what position would that be? Long on more expensive cocaine? Long on small arms manufacturers in border states?
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Northern Ireland24288 Posts
On March 04 2025 19:25 BlackJack wrote:Show nested quote +On March 04 2025 16:02 baal wrote:On March 04 2025 14:47 Husyelt wrote:On March 04 2025 14:35 baal wrote:On March 04 2025 11:58 KwarK wrote:
I’m betting Mexico because Iran can WMD. Depending on the speed of economic breakdown maybe by the end of the year.
They’ll announce some cross border operations and pretend it’s not war but instead policing of some kind. Mexico will protest but will do the Ukraine 2014 thing where you can’t actually stop the invading army and so you don’t mobilize and you don’t start openly firing missiles. Bad time to have family members in uniform. You think the US will actually invade Mexico and take land from us like Russia did to Ukraine? lmao Absolutely, it would start out as small incursions against cartels or what they claim are cartels. Mexico will have to engage at some point, and Trump will use that as an excuse to fully demilitarize much of the border. If that happens it would be an unmitigated disaster and the US would definitely lose after a few years, as turmoil and popular uprisings happen in every major city to stop the war, (and the army would definitely have major setbacks). Republicans telegraphed this even last year. So you think the US army will start blowing up civilians to force the Mexican government into declaring war so that they can annex like Sonora and Chihuahua or something? LMAO I wish I could open some polymarket style geopolitics betting market with only ppl from here, there are very unserious people in this thread, I guess if you really think Trump is the embodiment of the 4th reich these absurd scenarios don't sound as crazy to you but just think it through. If Trump were to wage an all out war against Mexico he would be immediately impeached and would for sure end up in prison, but lets go crazy and say he doesnt, ok now with 20% mexicans in the army you would see a split of insurrectionism within the army not to count the 40 million Mexicans living within the US borders that would make a 9/11 style attack every couple of days and then what, death camps for the 40 million lol. All this because they want to take a desert dryer than Arizona? and you think this is less risky than Iran because the might have WMD (they dont). Ok crazy scenarios aside, the US has already deployed troops to fight cartels before multiple times in latinamerica, and no they haven't taken any land nor killed civilians to start a war lol, so yeah if the US goes into Mexico (I hope they do), they can easily just do that, attack the cartels and defeat them with ease, they are disorganized militias and the only reason the Mexican army hasn't defeated them is because they are closely tied with the government so they don't want to, which is the main hurdle the US has always had and will continue to do so in trying to stop cartels, the government will do anything in its power to protect them, with intel, legally and politically. It’s hard to tell how serious they are sometimes but if there were a betting market for the things they say I don’t think you would find anyone here to risk their money on it. So that leads me to believe that sharing their left-wing fan-fiction is more of a fun hobby as opposed to any serious beliefs.
I dunno, I’d probably be up for once unless the bookies screwed me on technicalities.
A pretty fair chunk of ‘Trump derangement syndrome’ is stuff that ultimately came to pass.
That said I can’t see some all-out war against Mexico. I don’t think it would go down well, rather a lot of Americans with Mexican heritage and whatnot.
Also though he’s going about it in a manner I disagree with, Trump is really pushing the ‘peacemaker’ angle, this would be a complete reverse there as well.
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On March 04 2025 20:57 WombaT wrote:Show nested quote +On March 04 2025 19:25 BlackJack wrote:On March 04 2025 16:02 baal wrote:On March 04 2025 14:47 Husyelt wrote:On March 04 2025 14:35 baal wrote:On March 04 2025 11:58 KwarK wrote:
I’m betting Mexico because Iran can WMD. Depending on the speed of economic breakdown maybe by the end of the year.
They’ll announce some cross border operations and pretend it’s not war but instead policing of some kind. Mexico will protest but will do the Ukraine 2014 thing where you can’t actually stop the invading army and so you don’t mobilize and you don’t start openly firing missiles. Bad time to have family members in uniform. You think the US will actually invade Mexico and take land from us like Russia did to Ukraine? lmao Absolutely, it would start out as small incursions against cartels or what they claim are cartels. Mexico will have to engage at some point, and Trump will use that as an excuse to fully demilitarize much of the border. If that happens it would be an unmitigated disaster and the US would definitely lose after a few years, as turmoil and popular uprisings happen in every major city to stop the war, (and the army would definitely have major setbacks). Republicans telegraphed this even last year. So you think the US army will start blowing up civilians to force the Mexican government into declaring war so that they can annex like Sonora and Chihuahua or something? LMAO I wish I could open some polymarket style geopolitics betting market with only ppl from here, there are very unserious people in this thread, I guess if you really think Trump is the embodiment of the 4th reich these absurd scenarios don't sound as crazy to you but just think it through. If Trump were to wage an all out war against Mexico he would be immediately impeached and would for sure end up in prison, but lets go crazy and say he doesnt, ok now with 20% mexicans in the army you would see a split of insurrectionism within the army not to count the 40 million Mexicans living within the US borders that would make a 9/11 style attack every couple of days and then what, death camps for the 40 million lol. All this because they want to take a desert dryer than Arizona? and you think this is less risky than Iran because the might have WMD (they dont). Ok crazy scenarios aside, the US has already deployed troops to fight cartels before multiple times in latinamerica, and no they haven't taken any land nor killed civilians to start a war lol, so yeah if the US goes into Mexico (I hope they do), they can easily just do that, attack the cartels and defeat them with ease, they are disorganized militias and the only reason the Mexican army hasn't defeated them is because they are closely tied with the government so they don't want to, which is the main hurdle the US has always had and will continue to do so in trying to stop cartels, the government will do anything in its power to protect them, with intel, legally and politically. It’s hard to tell how serious they are sometimes but if there were a betting market for the things they say I don’t think you would find anyone here to risk their money on it. So that leads me to believe that sharing their left-wing fan-fiction is more of a fun hobby as opposed to any serious beliefs. I dunno, I’d probably be up for once unless the bookies screwed me on technicalities. A pretty fair chunk of ‘Trump derangement syndrome’ is stuff that ultimately came to pass. That said I can’t see some all-out war against Mexico. I don’t think it would go down well, rather a lot of Americans with Mexican heritage and whatnot. Also though he’s going about it in a manner I disagree with, Trump is really pushing the ‘peacemaker’ angle, this would be a complete reverse there as well. Which part is the peacemaker, the part that wants to turn Canada into the 51st state or the part that wants to annex Greenland?
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Trump's a bully. The key with bullies is they run away from any actual fight, and invading Mexico would be such a hornet's nest that even Trump should realise he doesn't want to do that.
He's lucked into control of the most powerful military on earth, and he's getting a kick out of using it to demand his friends' lunch money, but I don't think he's got the balls or the commitment to start an actual war of his own. There's more than enough wealth within the US that his oligarchs can 10x their dragon hoards just by completing the takeover of their own country. They don't need to light half of it on fire taking over a bunch of desert as well.
Personally I don't think it's productive to jump up and down about stuff he's probably not going to do, when what he's doing in plain sight should be enough to get every sane person in the US out in the street right now.
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There are many kinds of conflict. There is a full-scale war like the Ukraine war, but there is also the Afghanistan War, where you do drone strikes, patrols, and searches for terrorists. Attacking Iran to prevent WMDs could be a full-scale one or just repeated bombing of key infrastructure. With Mexican cartels, it would probably be a huge mess to hunt down cartel members and establish restricted areas to prevent anyone from approaching the US border. Either way, it would be a long operation, and people hating immigrants, Muslims, etc., would rejoice. If actual effectiveness and consequences would matter, then tariffs would not be happening right now. Most people would not notice or care if, for example, crime statistics got better if they did not see the effect with their own eyes. This is why things end up in highly publicised raids, harassment, court decisions, detention camps, deportation flights, etc.
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Northern Ireland24288 Posts
On March 04 2025 21:09 Gorsameth wrote:Show nested quote +On March 04 2025 20:57 WombaT wrote:On March 04 2025 19:25 BlackJack wrote:On March 04 2025 16:02 baal wrote:On March 04 2025 14:47 Husyelt wrote:On March 04 2025 14:35 baal wrote:On March 04 2025 11:58 KwarK wrote:
I’m betting Mexico because Iran can WMD. Depending on the speed of economic breakdown maybe by the end of the year.
They’ll announce some cross border operations and pretend it’s not war but instead policing of some kind. Mexico will protest but will do the Ukraine 2014 thing where you can’t actually stop the invading army and so you don’t mobilize and you don’t start openly firing missiles. Bad time to have family members in uniform. You think the US will actually invade Mexico and take land from us like Russia did to Ukraine? lmao Absolutely, it would start out as small incursions against cartels or what they claim are cartels. Mexico will have to engage at some point, and Trump will use that as an excuse to fully demilitarize much of the border. If that happens it would be an unmitigated disaster and the US would definitely lose after a few years, as turmoil and popular uprisings happen in every major city to stop the war, (and the army would definitely have major setbacks). Republicans telegraphed this even last year. So you think the US army will start blowing up civilians to force the Mexican government into declaring war so that they can annex like Sonora and Chihuahua or something? LMAO I wish I could open some polymarket style geopolitics betting market with only ppl from here, there are very unserious people in this thread, I guess if you really think Trump is the embodiment of the 4th reich these absurd scenarios don't sound as crazy to you but just think it through. If Trump were to wage an all out war against Mexico he would be immediately impeached and would for sure end up in prison, but lets go crazy and say he doesnt, ok now with 20% mexicans in the army you would see a split of insurrectionism within the army not to count the 40 million Mexicans living within the US borders that would make a 9/11 style attack every couple of days and then what, death camps for the 40 million lol. All this because they want to take a desert dryer than Arizona? and you think this is less risky than Iran because the might have WMD (they dont). Ok crazy scenarios aside, the US has already deployed troops to fight cartels before multiple times in latinamerica, and no they haven't taken any land nor killed civilians to start a war lol, so yeah if the US goes into Mexico (I hope they do), they can easily just do that, attack the cartels and defeat them with ease, they are disorganized militias and the only reason the Mexican army hasn't defeated them is because they are closely tied with the government so they don't want to, which is the main hurdle the US has always had and will continue to do so in trying to stop cartels, the government will do anything in its power to protect them, with intel, legally and politically. It’s hard to tell how serious they are sometimes but if there were a betting market for the things they say I don’t think you would find anyone here to risk their money on it. So that leads me to believe that sharing their left-wing fan-fiction is more of a fun hobby as opposed to any serious beliefs. I dunno, I’d probably be up for once unless the bookies screwed me on technicalities. A pretty fair chunk of ‘Trump derangement syndrome’ is stuff that ultimately came to pass. That said I can’t see some all-out war against Mexico. I don’t think it would go down well, rather a lot of Americans with Mexican heritage and whatnot. Also though he’s going about it in a manner I disagree with, Trump is really pushing the ‘peacemaker’ angle, this would be a complete reverse there as well. Which part is the peacemaker, the part that wants to turn Canada into the 51st state or the part that wants to annex Greenland?
Well yeah, he just hasn’t actually done any of those things.
It’s a Trump/significant section of his base’s conception, that if it’s not outright war, it’s peaceful. It’s a daft conception IMO, it just sees to be the lay of the land currently.
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On March 04 2025 21:30 WombaT wrote:Show nested quote +On March 04 2025 21:09 Gorsameth wrote:On March 04 2025 20:57 WombaT wrote:On March 04 2025 19:25 BlackJack wrote:On March 04 2025 16:02 baal wrote:On March 04 2025 14:47 Husyelt wrote:On March 04 2025 14:35 baal wrote:On March 04 2025 11:58 KwarK wrote:
I’m betting Mexico because Iran can WMD. Depending on the speed of economic breakdown maybe by the end of the year.
They’ll announce some cross border operations and pretend it’s not war but instead policing of some kind. Mexico will protest but will do the Ukraine 2014 thing where you can’t actually stop the invading army and so you don’t mobilize and you don’t start openly firing missiles. Bad time to have family members in uniform. You think the US will actually invade Mexico and take land from us like Russia did to Ukraine? lmao Absolutely, it would start out as small incursions against cartels or what they claim are cartels. Mexico will have to engage at some point, and Trump will use that as an excuse to fully demilitarize much of the border. If that happens it would be an unmitigated disaster and the US would definitely lose after a few years, as turmoil and popular uprisings happen in every major city to stop the war, (and the army would definitely have major setbacks). Republicans telegraphed this even last year. So you think the US army will start blowing up civilians to force the Mexican government into declaring war so that they can annex like Sonora and Chihuahua or something? LMAO I wish I could open some polymarket style geopolitics betting market with only ppl from here, there are very unserious people in this thread, I guess if you really think Trump is the embodiment of the 4th reich these absurd scenarios don't sound as crazy to you but just think it through. If Trump were to wage an all out war against Mexico he would be immediately impeached and would for sure end up in prison, but lets go crazy and say he doesnt, ok now with 20% mexicans in the army you would see a split of insurrectionism within the army not to count the 40 million Mexicans living within the US borders that would make a 9/11 style attack every couple of days and then what, death camps for the 40 million lol. All this because they want to take a desert dryer than Arizona? and you think this is less risky than Iran because the might have WMD (they dont). Ok crazy scenarios aside, the US has already deployed troops to fight cartels before multiple times in latinamerica, and no they haven't taken any land nor killed civilians to start a war lol, so yeah if the US goes into Mexico (I hope they do), they can easily just do that, attack the cartels and defeat them with ease, they are disorganized militias and the only reason the Mexican army hasn't defeated them is because they are closely tied with the government so they don't want to, which is the main hurdle the US has always had and will continue to do so in trying to stop cartels, the government will do anything in its power to protect them, with intel, legally and politically. It’s hard to tell how serious they are sometimes but if there were a betting market for the things they say I don’t think you would find anyone here to risk their money on it. So that leads me to believe that sharing their left-wing fan-fiction is more of a fun hobby as opposed to any serious beliefs. I dunno, I’d probably be up for once unless the bookies screwed me on technicalities. A pretty fair chunk of ‘Trump derangement syndrome’ is stuff that ultimately came to pass. That said I can’t see some all-out war against Mexico. I don’t think it would go down well, rather a lot of Americans with Mexican heritage and whatnot. Also though he’s going about it in a manner I disagree with, Trump is really pushing the ‘peacemaker’ angle, this would be a complete reverse there as well. Which part is the peacemaker, the part that wants to turn Canada into the 51st state or the part that wants to annex Greenland? Well yeah, he just hasn’t actually done any of those things. It’s a Trump/significant section of his base’s conception, that if it’s not outright war, it’s peaceful. It’s a daft conception IMO, it just sees to be the lay of the land currently.
Arguably worse, by giving Russia a sweet deal after they started an annexation war and rehabilitating their economy, he has just unilaterally obliterated any long-term peace prospects we had in Eastern Europe.
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Northern Ireland24288 Posts
On March 04 2025 21:37 EnDeR_ wrote:Show nested quote +On March 04 2025 21:30 WombaT wrote:On March 04 2025 21:09 Gorsameth wrote:On March 04 2025 20:57 WombaT wrote:On March 04 2025 19:25 BlackJack wrote:On March 04 2025 16:02 baal wrote:On March 04 2025 14:47 Husyelt wrote:On March 04 2025 14:35 baal wrote:On March 04 2025 11:58 KwarK wrote:
I’m betting Mexico because Iran can WMD. Depending on the speed of economic breakdown maybe by the end of the year.
They’ll announce some cross border operations and pretend it’s not war but instead policing of some kind. Mexico will protest but will do the Ukraine 2014 thing where you can’t actually stop the invading army and so you don’t mobilize and you don’t start openly firing missiles. Bad time to have family members in uniform. You think the US will actually invade Mexico and take land from us like Russia did to Ukraine? lmao Absolutely, it would start out as small incursions against cartels or what they claim are cartels. Mexico will have to engage at some point, and Trump will use that as an excuse to fully demilitarize much of the border. If that happens it would be an unmitigated disaster and the US would definitely lose after a few years, as turmoil and popular uprisings happen in every major city to stop the war, (and the army would definitely have major setbacks). Republicans telegraphed this even last year. So you think the US army will start blowing up civilians to force the Mexican government into declaring war so that they can annex like Sonora and Chihuahua or something? LMAO I wish I could open some polymarket style geopolitics betting market with only ppl from here, there are very unserious people in this thread, I guess if you really think Trump is the embodiment of the 4th reich these absurd scenarios don't sound as crazy to you but just think it through. If Trump were to wage an all out war against Mexico he would be immediately impeached and would for sure end up in prison, but lets go crazy and say he doesnt, ok now with 20% mexicans in the army you would see a split of insurrectionism within the army not to count the 40 million Mexicans living within the US borders that would make a 9/11 style attack every couple of days and then what, death camps for the 40 million lol. All this because they want to take a desert dryer than Arizona? and you think this is less risky than Iran because the might have WMD (they dont). Ok crazy scenarios aside, the US has already deployed troops to fight cartels before multiple times in latinamerica, and no they haven't taken any land nor killed civilians to start a war lol, so yeah if the US goes into Mexico (I hope they do), they can easily just do that, attack the cartels and defeat them with ease, they are disorganized militias and the only reason the Mexican army hasn't defeated them is because they are closely tied with the government so they don't want to, which is the main hurdle the US has always had and will continue to do so in trying to stop cartels, the government will do anything in its power to protect them, with intel, legally and politically. It’s hard to tell how serious they are sometimes but if there were a betting market for the things they say I don’t think you would find anyone here to risk their money on it. So that leads me to believe that sharing their left-wing fan-fiction is more of a fun hobby as opposed to any serious beliefs. I dunno, I’d probably be up for once unless the bookies screwed me on technicalities. A pretty fair chunk of ‘Trump derangement syndrome’ is stuff that ultimately came to pass. That said I can’t see some all-out war against Mexico. I don’t think it would go down well, rather a lot of Americans with Mexican heritage and whatnot. Also though he’s going about it in a manner I disagree with, Trump is really pushing the ‘peacemaker’ angle, this would be a complete reverse there as well. Which part is the peacemaker, the part that wants to turn Canada into the 51st state or the part that wants to annex Greenland? Well yeah, he just hasn’t actually done any of those things. It’s a Trump/significant section of his base’s conception, that if it’s not outright war, it’s peaceful. It’s a daft conception IMO, it just sees to be the lay of the land currently. Arguably worse, by giving Russia a sweet deal after they started an annexation war and rehabilitating their economy, he has just unilaterally obliterated any long-term peace prospects we had in Eastern Europe.
Oh 100%, see also his administration’s ‘plan’ for Gaza.
It seems to me the current status quo is he’ll go fuck things up, and his base don’t really care so long as US troops are kept out of wars directly. Fuck around as much as you like, just don’t do that.
I could just be wrong. Maybe there’s an addendum to ‘Let’s stop being the world’s police’, and it’s ’let’s have our new American Empire’.
It wouldn’t be the first time there’s a disconnect between what Trump and his base say they want and value, and what they do. Indeed that’s less the exception, more the rule.
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United States42216 Posts
On March 04 2025 16:02 baal wrote:Show nested quote +On March 04 2025 14:47 Husyelt wrote:On March 04 2025 14:35 baal wrote:On March 04 2025 11:58 KwarK wrote:
I’m betting Mexico because Iran can WMD. Depending on the speed of economic breakdown maybe by the end of the year.
They’ll announce some cross border operations and pretend it’s not war but instead policing of some kind. Mexico will protest but will do the Ukraine 2014 thing where you can’t actually stop the invading army and so you don’t mobilize and you don’t start openly firing missiles. Bad time to have family members in uniform. You think the US will actually invade Mexico and take land from us like Russia did to Ukraine? lmao Absolutely, it would start out as small incursions against cartels or what they claim are cartels. Mexico will have to engage at some point, and Trump will use that as an excuse to fully demilitarize much of the border. If that happens it would be an unmitigated disaster and the US would definitely lose after a few years, as turmoil and popular uprisings happen in every major city to stop the war, (and the army would definitely have major setbacks). Republicans telegraphed this even last year. So you think the US army will start blowing up civilians to force the Mexican government into declaring war so that they can annex like Sonora and Chihuahua or something? LMAO I wish I could open some polymarket style geopolitics betting market with only ppl from here, there are very unserious people in this thread, I guess if you really think Trump is the embodiment of the 4th reich these absurd scenarios don't sound as crazy to you but just think it through. If Trump were to wage an all out war against Mexico he would be immediately impeached and would for sure end up in prison, but lets go crazy and say he doesnt, ok now with 20% mexicans in the army you would see a split of insurrectionism within the army not to count the 40 million Mexicans living within the US borders that would make a 9/11 style attack every couple of days and then what, death camps for the 40 million lol. All this because they want to take a desert dryer than Arizona? and you think this is less risky than Iran because the might have WMD (they dont). Ok crazy scenarios aside, the US has already deployed troops to fight cartels before multiple times in latinamerica, and no they haven't taken any land nor killed civilians to start a war lol, so yeah if the US goes into Mexico (I hope they do), they can easily just do that, attack the cartels and defeat them with ease, they are disorganized militias and the only reason the Mexican army hasn't defeated them is because they are closely tied with the government so they don't want to, which is the main hurdle the US has always had and will continue to do so in trying to stop cartels, the government will do anything in its power to protect them, with intel, legally and politically.
I'll put some $ on American military activities in Mexico without the approval of the Mexican government before the end of the administration with you. Not sure why you think they'd be deliberately killing civilians, they're not the Russian army. You've straw manned my point quite a lot though when I think it'll follow the historical precedents of the Czechoslovakia or the Donbas. There will be a pretext, troops will be sent in to "restore order" or to "protect Americans" or to "defeat criminal elements". War won't be declared on Mexico (and hasn't been declared on Ukraine by Russia) but Mexico won't consent to the invasion and will register complaints with the UN etc.
It's just what these regimes do.
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Northern Ireland24288 Posts
On March 04 2025 15:29 Zambrah wrote:Show nested quote +Well partially the problem is he says a lot of stupid stuff, and just a lot of stuff in general, so it won't always sit together coherently. I'm sure he's made plenty of comments casting Russia as the villain, but has he not also made plenty of comments essentially blaming the whole thing on NATO aka the US, which culminated in calling it US disinformation that Kyiv would be attacked? Apparently he also said Crimea was a justified invasion, although that one seems greyer to me and I don't wanna take my own turn talking too far out of pocket so I'll leave it at that.
To Hasan's credit, I found out looking into this that he raised $200k for Ukraine, which sort of talks louder than any "take" on the issue.
He does seem to at least admit hes stupid enough, for the most part Id characterize him as like, a leftist with a middle east and US focus, who communicates very well when he wants to, specifically in a way that I think normal people who would feel daunted by trying to talk to GH about praxis and Freire and shit. He makes it clear that socialism doesnt mean people cant have nice things, he has a set of seemingly pretty steady beliefs, I like that he talks shit on leftists who constantly talk shit on other leftists instead of allying with them, for the most part I see him as pretty reasonable from what I've seen. Hes a masculine gym bro who speaks Gen Z (my least favorite part of him frankly, christ Gen Z speak I am old) dresses... fashionably? and talks about socialist principles and ideas in a way that I think the average person can understand. We need more people like him to counteract the raw quantity of far right lunatics online, bring some of the disaffected to the left instead of the fascist right. I don't agree with him on everything by any means, but he strikes me as a useful ally and I don't want to be That Leftist who shit talks people who ostensibly agree with me like 95% lol. Anarchist, communist, socialist, whatever, as long as we agree that capitalism has to go and people need a better quality of life free of billionaires and fascist boot heels then Im happy to consider them an ally (within reason, obviously.) Show nested quote +Anyways, that's all academic. The reason for bringing up Hasan was that maybe the people who have acquired a lot of both financial and social influence off of... let's call it praxis... should be the ones escalating when shit is apparently hitting the fan. If the left is to mobilise, and mobilise those not currently committed to their message, this seems to be the angle, not telling people working for the government that they're complicit in whatever Trump or Musk decided to do after the latest three seconds of thought if they don't quit. I dont think Hasan does that, though yeah Im pretty tired of GH harping on it. I get his point, he wants people to ask themselves, "when is what Im doing as a member of society/the government going to cross a point where what Im doing is actively supporting fascism," but imo hes trying to hammer them into an answer like its some sort of gotcha, whereas its a question that shouldnt need a verbal answer, its something for people to think about over time, something they can keep in mind for when there does come a moment where they have an answer for that question. Thats why I enjoy GH's sig, its a question in that vein, I think that in moments like the one we're experiencing its useful to find parallels in history and figure out how what youre doing might align, but its also something thats complicated and takes a lot of thought to figure out. Yeah, some lines are easy, DPB would probably never pull a lever that dropped his students into a pit of spikes, thats clearly psychotic and evil, but other things aren't as easy and require some time and thought and will become clearly as you approach them. Its worth thinking about, but I dont think its fair to just try and push people into an immediate answer about where in that blurry space theyre going to draw a hard line. This shit is hard enough and, frankly, leftists can be morally overwhelming and irritating online, I think that more leftists who can communicate somewhere between Hasan (Normal/Kinda Mean) and Wombat (Normal/Very Nice) is super useful. I also think Hasan would be a mediocre politician, I think hes got a good niche interviewing leftist politicians and platforming people, Hasan is like the number one lefty content creator to my knowledge, but hes really not that powerful, in reality we dont need a more active Hasan we need a lot more Hasans and for them not to descend into dipshit purity testing infighting.
Very nice, moi? Aw shucks :p I’m a prick at least occasionally.
Yeah I broadly agree. What makes some of these streamer types have the appeal and outreach, can also make them a liability as a regular political operator.
It’s all about personality and entertainment. You’re streaming all the time, often without much of a filter. Now, the problem comes if people don’t mesh with your personality. Or you’ll have a lot of baggage that people can attack, or drama between streamers starts to subsume the issues themselves.
More crudely, I think the problem is that streamers are a useful gateway to political enthusiasm, but a lot of their audience step through the gate and just stay there.
It’s quite a difficult one for me to ponder, as I was already pretty interested in left wing political ideas in my teens, approaching 20 years ago now (fucking hell lol). This stuff just didn’t exist then, and I don’t really need it now.
So without going full boomer and just discounting something I don’t understand, I’ll just confess a certain difficulty in assessing it as a pathway to teens and young adults now and how effective it is in exposing and inculcating left wing ideas.
On March 04 2025 17:14 Uldridge wrote:
I'm not sure what to think about the current political streamer situation.
There's this professional side with this huge parasocial bagage that you get for free always causing drama extra behind the scenes bs that I wish wasn't there. I watch a lot of Destiny because, during debates, during his political commentary he actually sits down and goes through material. He went through the entirety of the Jan 6 report on stream or something. I don't see anyone else doing that.
I try to avoid the drama but they can't seem to help themselves.
Hasan is a socialist grifter, who likes terrorism to the point of inviting one on stream, Destiny is legit a sex pest, Asmongold is a degenerate panderer who has no knowledge but peddles common sense. It's a strange world. The worst thing, like always, are these fanbases. They're rabid dogs. Having a chat/community seems to have been a mistake. It's all just a symptom of our cult status society nowadays. No more theist idols, but superhuman (Harry Potter, Marvel) and human idols (streamers, artists, athletes, politicians) have taken their place. I'm not sure this is good for social cohesion.
I’ll basically just add this to my previous post, you put it pretty well. Don’t 100% agree with 100% of it.
The parasocial element is pretty huge. It morphs one from following someone because there’s some shared politics or whatever, into being a fan of the person. And I think that can become problematic.
I much prefer things like YouTube video essays, or written articles or hell, books over things like streaming for the reasons you’re outlining.
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On March 04 2025 16:02 baal wrote:Show nested quote +On March 04 2025 14:47 Husyelt wrote:On March 04 2025 14:35 baal wrote:On March 04 2025 11:58 KwarK wrote:
I’m betting Mexico because Iran can WMD. Depending on the speed of economic breakdown maybe by the end of the year.
They’ll announce some cross border operations and pretend it’s not war but instead policing of some kind. Mexico will protest but will do the Ukraine 2014 thing where you can’t actually stop the invading army and so you don’t mobilize and you don’t start openly firing missiles. Bad time to have family members in uniform. You think the US will actually invade Mexico and take land from us like Russia did to Ukraine? lmao Absolutely, it would start out as small incursions against cartels or what they claim are cartels. Mexico will have to engage at some point, and Trump will use that as an excuse to fully demilitarize much of the border. If that happens it would be an unmitigated disaster and the US would definitely lose after a few years, as turmoil and popular uprisings happen in every major city to stop the war, (and the army would definitely have major setbacks). Republicans telegraphed this even last year. So you think the US army will start blowing up civilians to force the Mexican government into declaring war so that they can annex like Sonora and Chihuahua or something? LMAO I wish I could open some polymarket style geopolitics betting market with only ppl from here, there are very unserious people in this thread, I guess if you really think Trump is the embodiment of the 4th reich these absurd scenarios don't sound as crazy to you but just think it through. If Trump were to wage an all out war against Mexico he would be immediately impeached and would for sure end up in prison, but lets go crazy and say he doesnt, ok now with 20% mexicans in the army you would see a split of insurrectionism within the army not to count the 40 million Mexicans living within the US borders that would make a 9/11 style attack every couple of days and then what, death camps for the 40 million lol. All this because they want to take a desert dryer than Arizona? and you think this is less risky than Iran because the might have WMD (they dont). Ok crazy scenarios aside, the US has already deployed troops to fight cartels before multiple times in latinamerica, and no they haven't taken any land nor killed civilians to start a war lol, so yeah if the US goes into Mexico (I hope they do), they can easily just do that, attack the cartels and defeat them with ease, they are disorganized militias and the only reason the Mexican army hasn't defeated them is because they are closely tied with the government so they don't want to, which is the main hurdle the US has always had and will continue to do so in trying to stop cartels, the government will do anything in its power to protect them, with intel, legally and politically.
I'm sure they would have as much success destroying the cartel's as they did destroying the Taliban. Except they would have less support for the public and way more enemy combatants in their own country. I wish your betting site existed, your thoughts are even more unreasonable than the ones you talk down too, just from the other side of the coin.
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On March 04 2025 18:06 JimmyJRaynor wrote:Show nested quote +On March 04 2025 17:59 Simberto wrote:On March 04 2025 17:42 JimmyJRaynor wrote:https://apnews.com/article/trump-tariffs-canada-mexico-china-643086a6dc7ff716d876b3c83e3255b0Mexico has not announced any retaliation. Canada retaliated immediately. I think Canada is making a mistake. I think the Premier of Ontario is making the biggest mistakes. Canada has not been the USA's "best friend" for a very long time. On March 04 2025 17:38 Simberto wrote:On March 04 2025 17:30 JimmyJRaynor wrote:Welp, Canada is fucked. All the jobs that left upstate New York and Michigan in the 60s, 70s, and 80s will be coming back home. https://apnews.com/article/trump-tariffs-canada-mexico-china-643086a6dc7ff716d876b3c83e3255b0On March 04 2025 17:09 Simberto wrote:
Which is probably why Trump does all that shit with Canada. Canada is a country they border which doesn't have a lot of brown people in it. what a great comment. LOL. what shit does Trump do with Canada? In Canada, we don't consider Mexicans "brown". When I aced a math contest in my final year of high school i "browned out"; i'm jewish not mexican. "Canada should be the 51st state", "Governer Trudeau", "Fentanyl", "Tariffs" And it doesn't matter what you consider people to be. It matters what the racists in the US south consider people to be. And they consider mexicans brown. nah, my views are as valid as any other racist person's views in South Carolina or Georgia. a person being racist doesn't make their views more important than mine. Canada is more of a sub sovereign state than a country. Mexico is a real country. It has nothing to do with "brown people"... .whatever that is. Your views are generally as valid as those of other people, yes. But they are not as valid for the decisionmaking of the current president of the US. The president's #1 concern regarding Canada isn't the colour brown. its the black gold in Alberta that he wants. Prior to March 3 Trump's tariff talk lowered investment in Canada and increased it in the USA. Trump has already won.
Your assumptions are not facts (or close to reality), and if he wanted Alberta hes dun fucked up. Fuck Trudeau bumper stickers are being replaced with anti Trump ones. It is strange to see all the farmers start to agree with the city people.
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So far, I think Mexico is handling the tariff situation better than Canada. I can see why Sheinbaum is far more popular in Mexico than Trudeau is in Canada.
On March 04 2025 18:55 KT_Elwood wrote:
Trump Admin will use the US military to attack a country/Region this year.
Might be Canada, might be Mexico.. or Greenland.. or Gaza.
Why? Fascist playbook 101.
ur political opposition's fate to your own wellbeing.
thanks for the laughs man.
Here is how it works dude....
In "fascism" the citizens of neighbouring countries don't want to be in the "fascist country" because its garbage. Canadians and Mexicans by the hundreds of thousands want to move to America. There are very few full time job//career Americans who want to move to Mexico and/or Canada. There are hundreds of thousands of full-time-job // career motivated Canadians who want to move to the USA. We're talking DRs, Nurses, Medical Technologists, Software Engineers, Computer Scientists, Academics, Electricians. These hard working Canadians have options... and they choose .. of their own free will.. to move to the USA. We already know how badly the people in Mexico want into the USA.
https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/us-visas/employment/visas-canadian-mexican-usmca-professional-workers.html
When the drug cartels in Mexico take a shot at US border patrol agents and then the US military fires back... you can call that a "US military attack on Mexico" and then claim you are right. LOL.
The way the USA is structured it can't be fascist. Also, there are areas where Trump is reducing Federal powers and giving that power to the states. The abortion issue is one... each state has their own laws. the Education Secretary's mandate is to hand the power of choice back to the individual states. Trump is pulling out of the Ukraine. In many ways, Trump is reducing the reach of the Federal government.
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Trudeau has already said hes not running in the next election. Trump's tariffs have singlehandedly turned the Canadian political sphere on its head from a conservative majority to a competitive election where the liberals can somehow hold onto power.
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EPT
