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On November 13 2022 01:20 Liquid`Drone wrote:
I am very curious about Trump’s Tuesday announcement. I thought he was going to announce his candidacy but with these midterm results, and seemingly much of the right wing media turning on him (I read that anyway, haven't confirmed it myself), I dunno if that's still happening, or if that even was the plan. (I mean, if nothing else, if Trump has had a degree of savviness to him, it has been his ability to read and respond to the media.)
The initial plan was to announce his candidacy i am pretty sure about that.
But maybe he came to realize that he has no real change at winning the presidential elecions and that he turned from beeing an asset for the republicans into a liability.
Now i have no clue what he will announce. Maybe he will announce his return to twitter.
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On November 13 2022 02:06 pmh wrote:Show nested quote +On November 13 2022 01:20 Liquid`Drone wrote:
I am very curious about Trump’s Tuesday announcement. I thought he was going to announce his candidacy but with these midterm results, and seemingly much of the right wing media turning on him (I read that anyway, haven't confirmed it myself), I dunno if that's still happening, or if that even was the plan. (I mean, if nothing else, if Trump has had a degree of savviness to him, it has been his ability to read and respond to the media.) The initial plan was to announce his candidacy i am pretty sure about that. But maybe he came to realize that he has no real change at winning the presidential elecions and that he turned from beeing an asset for the republicans into a liability. Now i have no clue what he will announce. Maybe he will announce his return to twitter. I don't think whether or not he can win matters to him running. He needs the office of the President to protect himself from lawsuits and investigations, doubly so if the Republicans are not seizing Congress to further shield him. He might not announce Tuesday with how this election turned against him, but I will be shocked if he doesn't try to run in 2024.
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Northern Ireland26431 Posts
On November 13 2022 02:06 pmh wrote:Show nested quote +On November 13 2022 01:20 Liquid`Drone wrote:
I am very curious about Trump’s Tuesday announcement. I thought he was going to announce his candidacy but with these midterm results, and seemingly much of the right wing media turning on him (I read that anyway, haven't confirmed it myself), I dunno if that's still happening, or if that even was the plan. (I mean, if nothing else, if Trump has had a degree of savviness to him, it has been his ability to read and respond to the media.) The initial plan was to announce his candidacy i am pretty sure about that. But maybe he came to realize that he has no real change at winning the presidential elecions and that he turned from beeing an asset for the republicans into a liability. Now i have no clue what he will announce. Maybe he will announce his return to twitter.
My money is on either Truth Social 2.0 or a long awaited update on the status of Hunter Biden’s LaptopTM
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He's most likely going to announce he's running in 2024 anyway. I don't think he cares what other people think.
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He absolutely cares what other people think, but that's the chicanery that narcissism throws into the mix. He cares more than anything about how he's perceived, he's just willing to tell massive lies to himself and others to convince himself that he's perceived well. His ego demands that he run so that he can win, so that he feels like he's worth something.
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In probably the House race upset of the midterm (there could be another one in Colorado), WA-3 flips Democratic. 538 gave the Republican Joe Kent, a Freedom Caucus-esque figure, a 98% chance to win. Democrats made the entire western seaboard blue.
Useful chart to see how this midterm compares to other presidents' midterms. Biden's probably going to have the fifth best midterm for a president since 1934. More impressive given his miserable approval rating compared to the other performers. You could say the issues of Dobbs and defending democracy was equal to the New Deal, the Cuban Missile Crisis, Clinton's impeachment, and 9/11.
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It's crazy to think that if the Democratic party in NY hadn't been so incompetent and corrupt the Dems would probably already have 218 seats. Control of the House being this close in a midterm election is an embarrassing defeat for the Republicans.
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Nevada vote counters are supposed to submit the final 22k uncounted votes tonight, very good odds it puts the dem over.
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On November 13 2022 10:11 StasisField wrote:
It's crazy to think that if the Democratic party in NY hadn't been so incompetent and corrupt the Dems would probably already have 218 seats. Control of the House being this close in a midterm election is an embarrassing defeat for the Republicans.
New York democrats are so wildly corrupt and awful it’s silly.
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And CCM takes the lead in Nevada. Outlets are calling it. Dems have 50, possibly 51 with the Georgia runoff.
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It seems that we're going to have to wait until California gets around to counting the second half of their votes before we know who won the House, given that 10 of the <20 outstanding races are in CA. Hopefully, if it's not too much trouble, they'll get around to it eventually.
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I've seen enough. The Democrats retain the House with 219 seats.
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On November 13 2022 12:22 plasmidghost wrote:
I've seen enough. The Democrats retain the House with 219 seats.
I would be surprised if they make it to 218 tbh. Which seats do you think they flip?
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Someone dig up all of those wildly condescending posts from someone on this forum about how democrats are getting their senate taken from them
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On November 13 2022 12:26 StasisField wrote:Show nested quote +On November 13 2022 12:22 plasmidghost wrote:
I've seen enough. The Democrats retain the House with 219 seats. I would be surprised if they make it to 218 tbh. Which seats do you think they flip?
People I follow have been observing that the mail ballots along the West Coast have gone for Dems at 2018 rates, so with that in mind, here's the five uncalled races I think the GOP wins:
NY-22
AK-1
CA-27
CA-45
OR-5
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The 2024 Senate map is rough for Democrats/great for Republicans with a lot of vulnerable Democratic senators in red or battleground states. Manchin, Brown, Tester, and Sinema are all up, along with others who are less at risk but still could be toppled. It's why Johnson holding his Wisconsin seat is so painful and why Warnock has to win his, because the Democrats need every cushion possible.
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United States24761 Posts
It feels like the senate map is somehow rough for Democrats every time...
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On November 13 2022 12:54 plasmidghost wrote:Show nested quote +On November 13 2022 12:26 StasisField wrote:On November 13 2022 12:22 plasmidghost wrote:
I've seen enough. The Democrats retain the House with 219 seats. I would be surprised if they make it to 218 tbh. Which seats do you think they flip? People I follow have been observing that the mail ballots along the West Coast have gone for Dems at 2018 rates, so with that in mind, here's the five uncalled races I think the GOP wins: NY-22 AK-1 CA-27 CA-45 OR-5
I agree with all those except AK-1. I think Peltola takes it. With the other 4, I also think Republicans take:
CA-3
CA-41
CO-3
And they might flip AZ-1, giving the GOP 218 or 219 if they flip AZ-1.
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EPT
