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On November 09 2022 11:01 Introvert wrote:Show nested quote +On November 09 2022 10:58 Slaughter wrote:On November 09 2022 10:53 Introvert wrote:
you guys aren't really explaining what changed though. Hillary won the county by 30 points I think? DeSantis lost it by 20 in 2018. Sure 2020 was closer, but that type of attitude will contribute to a continuing bleed. Part of it is that apparently the national party kind of gave up on Florida and the state party was just kinda bad? At least that is what a lot of Florida dem voters are saying online. They put in a really bad effort and groomer Ron was pretty much unchallenged while the dem was invisible. see to me, that sounds like cope. It is true that FL dems have kind of given up, but there is certainly a stronger, underlying cause as to why a Hillary +30 county (or Gillum +20) is now DeSantis by double digits. I contend it's a combination of DeSantis' governance and dems moving left, further than the Hispanic voters in FL. I don't know how you organize your way out of that.
What is your mechanism? What do you think happened? If the same thing is not being seen nationally, I am not sure why it doesn't make sense to blame dynamics specific to Florida. The same has not been happening in Oregon and Washington. So something is different between PNW and Florida. I don't know jack shit about Florida. But I do know a democrat isn't winning Florida so long as immigration and abortion are issues.
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On November 09 2022 11:01 Introvert wrote:Show nested quote +On November 09 2022 10:58 Slaughter wrote:On November 09 2022 10:53 Introvert wrote:
you guys aren't really explaining what changed though. Hillary won the county by 30 points I think? DeSantis lost it by 20 in 2018. Sure 2020 was closer, but that type of attitude will contribute to a continuing bleed. Part of it is that apparently the national party kind of gave up on Florida and the state party was just kinda bad? At least that is what a lot of Florida dem voters are saying online. They put in a really bad effort and groomer Ron was pretty much unchallenged while the dem was invisible. see to me, that sounds like cope. It is true that FL dems have kind of given up, but there is certainly a stronger, underlying cause as to why a Hillary +30 county (or Gillum +20) is now DeSantis by double digits. I contend it's a combination of DeSantis' governance and dems moving left, further than the Hispanic voters in FL. I don't know how you organize your way out of that.
Florida is also a state that was a popular state for conservatives to move to away from bluer states that they didn't like. IIRC they had a pretty sizeable influx of people moving there the last couple of years. Dem voter turn out seems to be not high there and a lot of commentary I am seeing is that they saw the Dem nominee as basically a republican in a blue trench coat and didn't see a point. so *shrug* I don't live there so know little. Just visited a few places were various state discussions were going on and the Florida ones had a lot of Dems complaining about a lot of those things. Obviously a skewed sample
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Things looking really bad for Fetterman.The dem governor candidate is ahead my significantly more than Fetterman, so a lot of people who are voting for the dem gov are not voting for Fetterman.
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On November 09 2022 11:14 JimmiC wrote:Show nested quote +On November 09 2022 11:13 Mohdoo wrote:
Things looking really bad for Fetterman.The dem governor candidate is ahead my significantly more than Fetterman, so a lot of people who are voting for the dem gov are not voting for Fetterman. Oz seams so unlikeable, he is almost Herscal Walker bad. How can people want him representing them? Edit: Like what % of people who vote for OZ tonight have their personal interests inline with Oz's personal interests? Or the thought is the guy who sold fake cures on daytime TV is going to make sacrifices for their best interest? Are these the same people that bought the "cures"? What is going on, how could they not run a better candidate and how is he going to win?!?!?!
People love their grifters.
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Democrats put up a guy who was a Republican that owed his rise in politics to working for Jeb Bush. I think who Democrats chose to go against DeSantis played a role that has been underappreciated imo.
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United States8017 Posts
On November 09 2022 11:07 Slaughter wrote:Show nested quote +On November 09 2022 11:01 Introvert wrote:On November 09 2022 10:58 Slaughter wrote:On November 09 2022 10:53 Introvert wrote:
you guys aren't really explaining what changed though. Hillary won the county by 30 points I think? DeSantis lost it by 20 in 2018. Sure 2020 was closer, but that type of attitude will contribute to a continuing bleed. Part of it is that apparently the national party kind of gave up on Florida and the state party was just kinda bad? At least that is what a lot of Florida dem voters are saying online. They put in a really bad effort and groomer Ron was pretty much unchallenged while the dem was invisible. see to me, that sounds like cope. It is true that FL dems have kind of given up, but there is certainly a stronger, underlying cause as to why a Hillary +30 county (or Gillum +20) is now DeSantis by double digits. I contend it's a combination of DeSantis' governance and dems moving left, further than the Hispanic voters in FL. I don't know how you organize your way out of that. Florida is also a state that was a popular state for conservatives to move to away from bluer states that they didn't like. IIRC they had a pretty sizeable influx of people moving there the last couple of years. Dem voter turn out seems to be not high there and a lot of commentary I am seeing is that they saw the Dem nominee as basically a republican in a blue trench coat and didn't see a point. so *shrug* I don't live there so know little. Just visited a few places were various state discussions were going on and the Florida ones had a lot of Dems complaining about a lot of those things. Obviously a skewed sample
This would have been my first guess. Huge and growing rich, retiree population that can reliably be expected to vote red.
Multiple causes ofc, but I'd expect that to contribute.
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United States42640 Posts
On November 09 2022 11:01 Introvert wrote:Show nested quote +On November 09 2022 10:58 Slaughter wrote:On November 09 2022 10:53 Introvert wrote:
you guys aren't really explaining what changed though. Hillary won the county by 30 points I think? DeSantis lost it by 20 in 2018. Sure 2020 was closer, but that type of attitude will contribute to a continuing bleed. Part of it is that apparently the national party kind of gave up on Florida and the state party was just kinda bad? At least that is what a lot of Florida dem voters are saying online. They put in a really bad effort and groomer Ron was pretty much unchallenged while the dem was invisible. see to me, that sounds like cope. It is true that FL dems have kind of given up, but there is certainly a stronger, underlying cause as to why a Hillary +30 county (or Gillum +20) is now DeSantis by double digits. I contend it's a combination of DeSantis' governance and dems moving left, further than the Hispanic voters in FL. I don't know how you organize your way out of that.
The Democrats haven’t moved left. Left and right don’t even have relevance to most of the manufactured political issues of the day like whether the state should limit the medical options doctors are allowed to give their patients (republicans say yes, treatments they don’t like should be banned).
Left and right isn’t a useful way of analyzing these issues because it assumes that there are two vying sets of philosophies based on different assumptions and beliefs about the world. There aren’t. Republicans aren’t banning healthcare for trans teens out of any philosophical objection to families working with doctors to choose whatever medical care they think is best for them. We’re post political divisions, now it’s just artificial culture war stuff. It must be exhausting for the conservative cultists to keep track of what side of any particular issue they’re on and why.
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United States8017 Posts
On November 09 2022 11:22 KwarK wrote:Show nested quote +On November 09 2022 11:01 Introvert wrote:On November 09 2022 10:58 Slaughter wrote:On November 09 2022 10:53 Introvert wrote:
you guys aren't really explaining what changed though. Hillary won the county by 30 points I think? DeSantis lost it by 20 in 2018. Sure 2020 was closer, but that type of attitude will contribute to a continuing bleed. Part of it is that apparently the national party kind of gave up on Florida and the state party was just kinda bad? At least that is what a lot of Florida dem voters are saying online. They put in a really bad effort and groomer Ron was pretty much unchallenged while the dem was invisible. see to me, that sounds like cope. It is true that FL dems have kind of given up, but there is certainly a stronger, underlying cause as to why a Hillary +30 county (or Gillum +20) is now DeSantis by double digits. I contend it's a combination of DeSantis' governance and dems moving left, further than the Hispanic voters in FL. I don't know how you organize your way out of that. The Democrats haven’t moved left. Left and right don’t even have relevance to most of the manufactured political issues of the day like whether the state should limit the medical options doctors are allowed to give their patients (republicans say yes, treatments they don’t like should be banned). Left and right isn’t a useful way of analyzing these issues because it assumes that there are two vying sets of philosophies based on different assumptions and beliefs about the world. There aren’t. Republicans aren’t banning healthcare for trans teens out of any philosophical objection to families working with doctors to choose whatever medical care they think is best for them. We’re post political divisions, now it’s just artificial culture war stuff. It must be exhausting for the conservative cultists to keep track of what side of any particular issue they’re on and why.
There are. As I wrote before:
From conservative point of view the battle is always:
1) Things like porn/sex-work/sex-positivity/pleasure seeking/feminism/etc. are a memetic hazard, and more importantly, threaten our institutions of culture production (which reduces to threaten our incentives and ability to cooperate)
2) Wokeism/Class-differences/"Care"/Etc., done the way the left is doing them, creates incentives that increase the growth of the underclass in a way that causes the underclass to become impossible to support, eventually undermining society
You'll see conservative disagreement anywhere that they think the incentives aren't aligned to reduce the velocity of growth of the underclass, or that encourage behaviors that are perceived to be memetic hazards (e.g. destruction of family -> loss of cultural production -> conservative anger)
Every aspect that conservatives care about fits into one of those two categories, as does the reason they care about it.
So the entirety of the moral/validity of conservative claims reduces to a discussion of whether statements #1 or #2 are true.
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Northern Ireland25175 Posts
On November 09 2022 11:01 Introvert wrote:Show nested quote +On November 09 2022 10:58 Slaughter wrote:On November 09 2022 10:53 Introvert wrote:
you guys aren't really explaining what changed though. Hillary won the county by 30 points I think? DeSantis lost it by 20 in 2018. Sure 2020 was closer, but that type of attitude will contribute to a continuing bleed. Part of it is that apparently the national party kind of gave up on Florida and the state party was just kinda bad? At least that is what a lot of Florida dem voters are saying online. They put in a really bad effort and groomer Ron was pretty much unchallenged while the dem was invisible. see to me, that sounds like cope. It is true that FL dems have kind of given up, but there is certainly a stronger, underlying cause as to why a Hillary +30 county (or Gillum +20) is now DeSantis by double digits. I contend it's a combination of DeSantis' governance and dems moving left, further than the Hispanic voters in FL. I don't know how you organize your way out of that.
I would, lacking a huge amount of knowledge agree with you.
Where the line of equilibrium exists, and why idk, but it seems the Dems have crossed it. With some exceptions I feel Dem policies tend to drive things. At least perception wise.
In the crudest sense that the Dems tend to be the party that proposes doing things and changing things, the GOP keeping it static, or reverting it. There are of course innumerable exceptions
You’ll have anomalies, but my best guess is if the Dems are getting ranked in areas it’s because people either don’t agree problems exist that need fixed, or disagree with the proposed solutions
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Looks like Rep. Spanberger holds her seat and Seth Magaziner will keep RI-2 blue. Both were watched carefully to see if the election would go good for the GOP or really good. New Hampshire is looking better than expected for Hassan and the state's reps. Doesn't seem like this is a red wave midterm except in Florida.
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United States8017 Posts
On November 09 2022 11:38 WombaT wrote:Show nested quote +On November 09 2022 11:01 Introvert wrote:On November 09 2022 10:58 Slaughter wrote:On November 09 2022 10:53 Introvert wrote:
you guys aren't really explaining what changed though. Hillary won the county by 30 points I think? DeSantis lost it by 20 in 2018. Sure 2020 was closer, but that type of attitude will contribute to a continuing bleed. Part of it is that apparently the national party kind of gave up on Florida and the state party was just kinda bad? At least that is what a lot of Florida dem voters are saying online. They put in a really bad effort and groomer Ron was pretty much unchallenged while the dem was invisible. see to me, that sounds like cope. It is true that FL dems have kind of given up, but there is certainly a stronger, underlying cause as to why a Hillary +30 county (or Gillum +20) is now DeSantis by double digits. I contend it's a combination of DeSantis' governance and dems moving left, further than the Hispanic voters in FL. I don't know how you organize your way out of that. I would, lacking a huge amount of knowledge agree with you. Where the line of equilibrium exists, and why idk, but it seems the Dems have crossed it. With some exceptions I feel Dem policies tend to drive things. At least perception wise. In the crudest sense that the Dems tend to be the party that proposes doing things and changing things, the GOP keeping it static, or reverting it. There are of course innumerable exceptions You’ll have anomalies, but my best guess is if the Dems are getting ranked in areas it’s because people either don’t agree problems exist that need fixed, or disagree with the proposed solutions
In so far as I can tell from trying to assess the pulse, it's basically the highly progressive stuff.
People are tired of the cancel mob, they are tired of the aggressive race/anti-white stuff, they are frustrated with how much jerking around happened with COVID, and they are generally dissatisfied with the pursuit of things like the green agenda and the general state of economy with the massive spending and resultant inflation.
These things were all tolerable when times were fairly good, but with everything getting uglier, there is less prosperity which means drastically increased resistance to what is deemed as "luxury".
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Looks like Walker wins outright in Georgia
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On November 09 2022 11:49 plasmidghost wrote:
Looks like Walker wins outright in Georgia
So much for the "party of christian values" lmao they show their true colors more and more every day.
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On November 09 2022 11:45 PhoenixVoid wrote:
Looks like Rep. Spanberger holds her seat and Seth Magaziner will keep RI-2 blue. Both were watched carefully to see if the election would go good for the GOP or really good. New Hampshire is looking better than expected for Hassan and the state's reps. Doesn't seem like this is a red wave midterm except in Florida.
Hey, my mediocre candidate won, thats nice at least. I still think shes a dumb ass but beats whoever the Republican was.
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PA Senate forecast gets better for Fetterman with each update, so there's that
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On November 09 2022 11:45 PhoenixVoid wrote:
Looks like Rep. Spanberger holds her seat and Seth Magaziner will keep RI-2 blue. Both were watched carefully to see if the election would go good for the GOP or really good. New Hampshire is looking better than expected for Hassan and the state's reps. Doesn't seem like this is a red wave midterm except in Florida.
we'll see how the western states go. still looks good for house and senate flips, but it is true that Roe may save dems a few places here and there. that and sub-par gop candidates. as i've said before, I am A-OK with that. most people don't know what Roe was, so it will take time for the issue to settle.
for reference, after 2018 dems ended with 235 seats in the house. gop record for the past 100 years is ~245.
i'm sad some terrible lockdown govs will prob survive, like Whitmer, but the gop primary there was a mess. at least this will make the DeSantis win more impressive lol
that being said, night's not done.
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On November 09 2022 11:51 Slaughter wrote:Show nested quote +On November 09 2022 11:49 plasmidghost wrote:
Looks like Walker wins outright in Georgia So much for the "party of christian values" lmao they show their true colors more and more every day.
“When they go low, we go high and then lose elections  ”
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On November 09 2022 11:51 Slaughter wrote:Show nested quote +On November 09 2022 11:49 plasmidghost wrote:
Looks like Walker wins outright in Georgia So much for the "party of christian values" lmao they show their true colors more and more every day.
consider Warnock's... personal issues and lefty voting record, it's totally understandable how people could still vote for Walker. Warnock is awful.
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EPT
