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On November 09 2022 00:28 NewSunshine wrote:Show nested quote +On November 09 2022 00:13 L_Master wrote:
And no, I don't mean revolution. I mean things like the degree to which genetics plays a role, the degree to which woke/identity stuff is actively harmful or outright discrimination, whole bunch of stuff around COVID, etc.
It's stuff that I would consider ominous if I was Democratically inclined.
Okay, well I've heard what I need to know about your inclinations, if you actually have any. It's much easier to engage in both-sides sophistry when you start from a position of privilege. As you note, the track-record of Republicans is well established. They beat the drum of inflation and crime, with no intention of addressing either, to then use their power to attack marginalized communities even further. It's not a "both sides are equally hapless" issue where you can play hot potato posturing for 2024. This election will absolutely have consequences, and Republicans will look to accelerate the backslide wherever they can. Roe was just the start.
Mmm, I am positive I have not said "both sides equal".
Because I don't believe that whatsoever. It's quite asymmetric.
Republicans, as in the Republican party and their typical platforms, are absolute idiots in their own way.
They are generally people of limited education, and fairly average or even below average intelligence. Decent, hardworking people fairly often when they stick to their local domains of competency.
They are just people following deep rooted evolutionary instincts. They believe many things, but don't really *know* why they believe them. It just "feels" correct. Like anything, when they vote at scale (outside their domain of competency) it can cause problems.
Their function is basically to slow the rate of liberal oriented thinking and tinkering. Civilization got somewhere in large part because of it's evolved laws/norms/traditions/institutions. Improvements and optimizations are possible, but unchecked liberal intuitions to do so *could* potentially be disastrous, and it's likely that many civilizations that changed too fast destroyed too much of what made them successful. Evolutionary destruction. So conservatives create an evolutionary optimum, whereby (annoying as they are) they slow down the rate at which liberal oriented types tinker with civilization, attempting to prevent too rapid changes in course.
Can't really blame them for what they are (you can blame the leaders though, they usually *do* know better)
Roe was just the start.
Don't confuse Republicans with the Court.
They are two very different entities. If you take a surface level look, the inclination might be to see the court as the same thing as "just pushing a conservative agenda".
But, a deeper look reveals a subtle, but important distinction. The court (which Kwark is right in that the conservatives successfully marched through the court, as the liberals did the institutions of cultural production) is aiming to overturn Positive Law (rule by man) in favor of Natural Law (rule of law).
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On November 08 2022 23:54 L_Master wrote:Show nested quote +On November 08 2022 23:38 NewSunshine wrote:On November 08 2022 23:06 Gorsameth wrote:On November 08 2022 22:55 DropBear wrote:
Please tell me Trump isn't running again That is 2 years from now, and I fully expect he will. The protection from being the President is the only defence he has against a whole host of lawsuits and investigations, both civil and criminal, closing in on him. Our best hope by then could be that DeSantis crowds the space and runs as well, splitting the fascist vote. Maybe their supporters start going after each other as they try to assert the one true way to be an American. Probably not, though. They'll fall in line, like a good patriot always does. All indicators are that he will run again. Given the state of the economy and general directionality of events, it's very likely he (or whoever wins R nomination) wins the race too. Which is one of the reasons I'm surprised those of you (most?) are rooting for a liberal victory. A major red wave win followed up with the high probability of the entire global and economic situation being much worse in 2024 would be very, very easy to pin on the conservatives. A more marginal situation isn't, they can play the obstruction card. More broadly though, to have any chance, the Democrats have to turn on their progressive/woke wing that is absolutely going to kill them. Show nested quote +Our best hope by then could be that DeSantis crowds the space and runs as well, splitting the fascist vote. Maybe their supporters start going after each other as they try to assert the one true way to be an American. There are so few fascists though. Mayyybe like 10-15% of conservative voters. The rest of the conservatives are quite opposed to such things. I'm seeing a consistent theme in this thread about how a chunk of posters seem to be framing things, and I'd be willing to bit that very few of you are living in close proximity to conservatives, and or have more than 4 or 5 in your common circles. If 90% of Republican voters is quite opposed to fascism I would expect them to punish the Republican representatives for supporting and not condemning a literal insurrection attempt by the, supposed, 10% part of the party that is fascist.
The GOP has done absolutely nothing to prevent a repeat of jan 6th, in fact it has done the absolute opposite.
Sorry but if your not going to vote against your own fascist party but keep ticking those R's on the ballot I'm going to call a vast majority of Republicans atleast 'ok' with fascism, if not outright fascists themselves.
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On November 09 2022 00:57 Gorsameth wrote:Show nested quote +On November 08 2022 23:54 L_Master wrote:On November 08 2022 23:38 NewSunshine wrote:On November 08 2022 23:06 Gorsameth wrote:On November 08 2022 22:55 DropBear wrote:
Please tell me Trump isn't running again That is 2 years from now, and I fully expect he will. The protection from being the President is the only defence he has against a whole host of lawsuits and investigations, both civil and criminal, closing in on him. Our best hope by then could be that DeSantis crowds the space and runs as well, splitting the fascist vote. Maybe their supporters start going after each other as they try to assert the one true way to be an American. Probably not, though. They'll fall in line, like a good patriot always does. All indicators are that he will run again. Given the state of the economy and general directionality of events, it's very likely he (or whoever wins R nomination) wins the race too. Which is one of the reasons I'm surprised those of you (most?) are rooting for a liberal victory. A major red wave win followed up with the high probability of the entire global and economic situation being much worse in 2024 would be very, very easy to pin on the conservatives. A more marginal situation isn't, they can play the obstruction card. More broadly though, to have any chance, the Democrats have to turn on their progressive/woke wing that is absolutely going to kill them. Our best hope by then could be that DeSantis crowds the space and runs as well, splitting the fascist vote. Maybe their supporters start going after each other as they try to assert the one true way to be an American. There are so few fascists though. Mayyybe like 10-15% of conservative voters. The rest of the conservatives are quite opposed to such things. I'm seeing a consistent theme in this thread about how a chunk of posters seem to be framing things, and I'd be willing to bit that very few of you are living in close proximity to conservatives, and or have more than 4 or 5 in your common circles. If 90% of Republican voters is quite opposed to fascism I would expect them to punish the Republican representatives for supporting and not condemning a literal insurrection attempt by the, supposed, 10% part of the party that is fascist. The GOP has done absolutely nothing to prevent a repeat of jan 6th, in fact it has done the absolute opposite. Sorry but if your not going to vote against your own fascist party but keep ticking those R's on the ballot I'm going to call a vast majority of Republicans atleast 'ok' with fascism, if not outright fascists themselves.
Nobody condemns the insurrection because it wasn't a remotely credible threat for the reasons I discussed before. Moreover, when you're in the frame that almost everyone is in, and don't have prohibitions against GSRRM and irreciprocity, you get things where you're choosing between A (your "side" by identity, but not by action) and B (the enemy) you still choose A.
You do make a good point though, I do think that *most* Republicans (60%?) would choose Fascism over "the enemy" (progressive left).
If you killed the progressive left, I think that number drops down below 20%, leaving only dissident right (openly fascist) and a small percent of MAGA foks.
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Or if they are it is willful ignorance, which is not a lot better than believing those conspiracies.
It's normal monkey behavior.
Their instincts, crystallized over experiences iterated many times yields their intuition. That intuition then, creates a feeling when they hear information from the left/neutral parties that *feels* wrong. And, like anyone not well trained, they mistake their intuition for reasoning, often inventing elaborate tangled webs of motivated "reasoning" to defend those intuition (e.g. similar process to highly religious or cult people).
People aren't taught any of this, and it's hard to learn. And, it seems certain personality types struggle with it far more than others.
What separates intuition from reasoning that we have to teach/train people to do?
Falsification.
We find it so appalling to our core that we believe that people who do support them must somewhat agree with it.
Worth noting this is a case where your intuitions (feeling) are directly falsifiable.
If you're pinned into a dichotomy, and don't recognize other options, you can be directly forced to pick between the lesser of two evil options. Add in the idea that the other evil option is winning and supremely dangerous, and you get the fear of criticizing the lesser evil lest you of hurt it's momentum and allow the greater evil to win.
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On November 09 2022 01:04 L_Master wrote:Show nested quote +On November 09 2022 00:57 Gorsameth wrote:On November 08 2022 23:54 L_Master wrote:On November 08 2022 23:38 NewSunshine wrote:On November 08 2022 23:06 Gorsameth wrote:On November 08 2022 22:55 DropBear wrote:
Please tell me Trump isn't running again That is 2 years from now, and I fully expect he will. The protection from being the President is the only defence he has against a whole host of lawsuits and investigations, both civil and criminal, closing in on him. Our best hope by then could be that DeSantis crowds the space and runs as well, splitting the fascist vote. Maybe their supporters start going after each other as they try to assert the one true way to be an American. Probably not, though. They'll fall in line, like a good patriot always does. All indicators are that he will run again. Given the state of the economy and general directionality of events, it's very likely he (or whoever wins R nomination) wins the race too. Which is one of the reasons I'm surprised those of you (most?) are rooting for a liberal victory. A major red wave win followed up with the high probability of the entire global and economic situation being much worse in 2024 would be very, very easy to pin on the conservatives. A more marginal situation isn't, they can play the obstruction card. More broadly though, to have any chance, the Democrats have to turn on their progressive/woke wing that is absolutely going to kill them. Our best hope by then could be that DeSantis crowds the space and runs as well, splitting the fascist vote. Maybe their supporters start going after each other as they try to assert the one true way to be an American. There are so few fascists though. Mayyybe like 10-15% of conservative voters. The rest of the conservatives are quite opposed to such things. I'm seeing a consistent theme in this thread about how a chunk of posters seem to be framing things, and I'd be willing to bit that very few of you are living in close proximity to conservatives, and or have more than 4 or 5 in your common circles. If 90% of Republican voters is quite opposed to fascism I would expect them to punish the Republican representatives for supporting and not condemning a literal insurrection attempt by the, supposed, 10% part of the party that is fascist. The GOP has done absolutely nothing to prevent a repeat of jan 6th, in fact it has done the absolute opposite. Sorry but if your not going to vote against your own fascist party but keep ticking those R's on the ballot I'm going to call a vast majority of Republicans atleast 'ok' with fascism, if not outright fascists themselves. Nobody condemns the insurrection because it wasn't a remotely credible threat for the reasons I discussed before. Moreover, when you're in the frame that almost everyone is in, and don't have prohibitions against GSRRM and irreciprocity, you get things where you're choosing between A (your "side" by identity, but not by action) and B (the enemy) you still choose A. You do make a good point though, I do think that *most* Republicans (60%?) would choose Fascism over "the enemy" (progressive left). If you killed the progressive left, I think that number drops down below 20%, leaving only dissident right (openly fascist) and a small percent of MAGA foks. So if Trump runs again in 2024 you expect him to get significantly less votes then in 2016 and 2020, because a decent chunk of Republicans, but minority, will not vote for a fascist even if the only other option is 'the enemy'?
I wish I could share your optimism, such as it is.
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On November 09 2022 01:14 Gorsameth wrote:Show nested quote +On November 09 2022 01:04 L_Master wrote:On November 09 2022 00:57 Gorsameth wrote:On November 08 2022 23:54 L_Master wrote:On November 08 2022 23:38 NewSunshine wrote:On November 08 2022 23:06 Gorsameth wrote:On November 08 2022 22:55 DropBear wrote:
Please tell me Trump isn't running again That is 2 years from now, and I fully expect he will. The protection from being the President is the only defence he has against a whole host of lawsuits and investigations, both civil and criminal, closing in on him. Our best hope by then could be that DeSantis crowds the space and runs as well, splitting the fascist vote. Maybe their supporters start going after each other as they try to assert the one true way to be an American. Probably not, though. They'll fall in line, like a good patriot always does. All indicators are that he will run again. Given the state of the economy and general directionality of events, it's very likely he (or whoever wins R nomination) wins the race too. Which is one of the reasons I'm surprised those of you (most?) are rooting for a liberal victory. A major red wave win followed up with the high probability of the entire global and economic situation being much worse in 2024 would be very, very easy to pin on the conservatives. A more marginal situation isn't, they can play the obstruction card. More broadly though, to have any chance, the Democrats have to turn on their progressive/woke wing that is absolutely going to kill them. Our best hope by then could be that DeSantis crowds the space and runs as well, splitting the fascist vote. Maybe their supporters start going after each other as they try to assert the one true way to be an American. There are so few fascists though. Mayyybe like 10-15% of conservative voters. The rest of the conservatives are quite opposed to such things. I'm seeing a consistent theme in this thread about how a chunk of posters seem to be framing things, and I'd be willing to bit that very few of you are living in close proximity to conservatives, and or have more than 4 or 5 in your common circles. If 90% of Republican voters is quite opposed to fascism I would expect them to punish the Republican representatives for supporting and not condemning a literal insurrection attempt by the, supposed, 10% part of the party that is fascist. The GOP has done absolutely nothing to prevent a repeat of jan 6th, in fact it has done the absolute opposite. Sorry but if your not going to vote against your own fascist party but keep ticking those R's on the ballot I'm going to call a vast majority of Republicans atleast 'ok' with fascism, if not outright fascists themselves. Nobody condemns the insurrection because it wasn't a remotely credible threat for the reasons I discussed before. Moreover, when you're in the frame that almost everyone is in, and don't have prohibitions against GSRRM and irreciprocity, you get things where you're choosing between A (your "side" by identity, but not by action) and B (the enemy) you still choose A. You do make a good point though, I do think that *most* Republicans (60%?) would choose Fascism over "the enemy" (progressive left). If you killed the progressive left, I think that number drops down below 20%, leaving only dissident right (openly fascist) and a small percent of MAGA foks. So if Trump runs again in 2024 you expect him to get significantly less votes then in 2016 and 2020, because a decent chunk of Republicans, but minority, will not vote for a fascist even if the only other option is 'the enemy'? I wish I could share your optimism, such as it is.
I expect whichever party is perceived as "in control" to win, probably in a landslide, because I expect the state of affairs in 2024 to be much worse than they are today.
I see the potential for anywhere between continued mild recession and outright crash/depression by then. The situation in Europe is awful with energy. CN is underwater with Evergrande and making noise about accelerating Taiwan acquisition sensing that the US can handle any one of the three kleptocracies (RN, CU, IR) but not all three at once. IR is making some noise.
There is a rapid acceleration and expansion of industry in the US currently happening, but I have my doubts it's enough to stave off what looks like really hard times coming, especially with continued declining energy EROEI.
So if Trump runs again in 2024 you expect him to get significantly less votes then in 2016 and 2020
In direct response, I think you take for granted the assumption that everyone recognizes that Trump = fascist.
I genuinely do not think that most Republicans think of Trump as a fascist. They all believe the media on the left exaggerated what happened. The moderate ones really are repulsed by Trump's antics, but supported a reasonable chunk of his platform. It would be interesting though, to see if they *really* believe that.
E.g. what *would* Trump have to do before they turned on him? Or is there no limit and Trump could slide into open fascism and they would follow. Probably would depend a great deal on the programming surrounding it is my gut sense
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Norway28929 Posts
I was confused by the CU and RN but I assume you mean RU and CN? Might as well spell them out tbh!
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United States44450 Posts
On November 09 2022 01:04 L_Master wrote:Show nested quote +On November 09 2022 00:57 Gorsameth wrote:On November 08 2022 23:54 L_Master wrote:On November 08 2022 23:38 NewSunshine wrote:On November 08 2022 23:06 Gorsameth wrote:On November 08 2022 22:55 DropBear wrote:
Please tell me Trump isn't running again That is 2 years from now, and I fully expect he will. The protection from being the President is the only defence he has against a whole host of lawsuits and investigations, both civil and criminal, closing in on him. Our best hope by then could be that DeSantis crowds the space and runs as well, splitting the fascist vote. Maybe their supporters start going after each other as they try to assert the one true way to be an American. Probably not, though. They'll fall in line, like a good patriot always does. All indicators are that he will run again. Given the state of the economy and general directionality of events, it's very likely he (or whoever wins R nomination) wins the race too. Which is one of the reasons I'm surprised those of you (most?) are rooting for a liberal victory. A major red wave win followed up with the high probability of the entire global and economic situation being much worse in 2024 would be very, very easy to pin on the conservatives. A more marginal situation isn't, they can play the obstruction card. More broadly though, to have any chance, the Democrats have to turn on their progressive/woke wing that is absolutely going to kill them. Our best hope by then could be that DeSantis crowds the space and runs as well, splitting the fascist vote. Maybe their supporters start going after each other as they try to assert the one true way to be an American. There are so few fascists though. Mayyybe like 10-15% of conservative voters. The rest of the conservatives are quite opposed to such things. I'm seeing a consistent theme in this thread about how a chunk of posters seem to be framing things, and I'd be willing to bit that very few of you are living in close proximity to conservatives, and or have more than 4 or 5 in your common circles. If 90% of Republican voters is quite opposed to fascism I would expect them to punish the Republican representatives for supporting and not condemning a literal insurrection attempt by the, supposed, 10% part of the party that is fascist. The GOP has done absolutely nothing to prevent a repeat of jan 6th, in fact it has done the absolute opposite. Sorry but if your not going to vote against your own fascist party but keep ticking those R's on the ballot I'm going to call a vast majority of Republicans atleast 'ok' with fascism, if not outright fascists themselves. Nobody condemns the insurrection because it wasn't a remotely credible threat for the reasons I discussed before. Moreover, when you're in the frame that almost everyone is in, and don't have prohibitions against GSRRM and irreciprocity, you get things where you're choosing between A (your "side" by identity, but not by action) and B (the enemy) you still choose A. You do make a good point though, I do think that *most* Republicans (60%?) would choose Fascism over "the enemy" (progressive left). If you killed the progressive left, I think that number drops down below 20%, leaving only dissident right (openly fascist) and a small percent of MAGA foks.
If the secret service had removed Mike Pence from the senate as they tried to do then Chuck Grassley would have been called upon to certify the election and he wasn’t going to do it. He actually tweeted the day before the insurrection that he was ready to do it as Pence wouldn’t be there because somehow he knew that Pence would be blocked after Pence refused Trump’s order to return the election to the states.
Literally the only thing that stopped the coup is that Pence overruled his security detail and they in turn weren’t willing to physically force him into the car. And the only reason Pence did that is because fucking Dan Quayle talked him into it.
It was extremely credible. It came within a hairs breadth of working multiple times and the individuals who stopped it from working are being removed. The fact that you think it was not credible is simply you showing how ignorant you are of what happened.
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That is the big problem with fascists coups. They are absolutely not a credible threat, and no one thinks that they can work. Right up until when they have worked.
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On November 09 2022 02:23 Simberto wrote:
That is the big problem with fascists coups. They are absolutely not a credible threat, and no one thinks that they can work. Right up until when they have worked.
I can accept there is some truth truth to this, however the conditions have to be right for it. A fascist coup in say, 1955 was not going to work.
But I'm also willing to grant that current times it is at least plausible we have the kind of situation where such a coup might work.
I ultimately don't think the majority of the electorate would go along with it, nor am I confident the military would....but I would acknowledge the threat/possibility exists.
On November 09 2022 02:19 KwarK wrote:Show nested quote +On November 09 2022 01:04 L_Master wrote:On November 09 2022 00:57 Gorsameth wrote:On November 08 2022 23:54 L_Master wrote:On November 08 2022 23:38 NewSunshine wrote:On November 08 2022 23:06 Gorsameth wrote:On November 08 2022 22:55 DropBear wrote:
Please tell me Trump isn't running again That is 2 years from now, and I fully expect he will. The protection from being the President is the only defence he has against a whole host of lawsuits and investigations, both civil and criminal, closing in on him. Our best hope by then could be that DeSantis crowds the space and runs as well, splitting the fascist vote. Maybe their supporters start going after each other as they try to assert the one true way to be an American. Probably not, though. They'll fall in line, like a good patriot always does. All indicators are that he will run again. Given the state of the economy and general directionality of events, it's very likely he (or whoever wins R nomination) wins the race too. Which is one of the reasons I'm surprised those of you (most?) are rooting for a liberal victory. A major red wave win followed up with the high probability of the entire global and economic situation being much worse in 2024 would be very, very easy to pin on the conservatives. A more marginal situation isn't, they can play the obstruction card. More broadly though, to have any chance, the Democrats have to turn on their progressive/woke wing that is absolutely going to kill them. Our best hope by then could be that DeSantis crowds the space and runs as well, splitting the fascist vote. Maybe their supporters start going after each other as they try to assert the one true way to be an American. There are so few fascists though. Mayyybe like 10-15% of conservative voters. The rest of the conservatives are quite opposed to such things. I'm seeing a consistent theme in this thread about how a chunk of posters seem to be framing things, and I'd be willing to bit that very few of you are living in close proximity to conservatives, and or have more than 4 or 5 in your common circles. If 90% of Republican voters is quite opposed to fascism I would expect them to punish the Republican representatives for supporting and not condemning a literal insurrection attempt by the, supposed, 10% part of the party that is fascist. The GOP has done absolutely nothing to prevent a repeat of jan 6th, in fact it has done the absolute opposite. Sorry but if your not going to vote against your own fascist party but keep ticking those R's on the ballot I'm going to call a vast majority of Republicans atleast 'ok' with fascism, if not outright fascists themselves. Nobody condemns the insurrection because it wasn't a remotely credible threat for the reasons I discussed before. Moreover, when you're in the frame that almost everyone is in, and don't have prohibitions against GSRRM and irreciprocity, you get things where you're choosing between A (your "side" by identity, but not by action) and B (the enemy) you still choose A. You do make a good point though, I do think that *most* Republicans (60%?) would choose Fascism over "the enemy" (progressive left). If you killed the progressive left, I think that number drops down below 20%, leaving only dissident right (openly fascist) and a small percent of MAGA foks. If the secret service had removed Mike Pence from the senate as they tried to do then Chuck Grassley would have been called upon to certify the election and he wasn’t going to do it. He actually tweeted the day before the insurrection that he was ready to do it as Pence wouldn’t be there because somehow he knew that Pence would be blocked after Pence refused Trump’s order to return the election to the states. Literally the only thing that stopped the coup is that Pence overruled his security detail and they in turn weren’t willing to physically force him into the car. And the only reason Pence did that is because fucking Dan Quayle talked him into it. It was extremely credible. It came within a hairs breadth of working multiple times and the individuals who stopped it from working are being removed. The fact that you think it was not credible is simply you showing how ignorant you are of what happened.
Mmmm. I thought you were talking about the Capitol storming nonsense, not the election stuff.
I'm not going to say extremely credible, but I will agree with at least plausibly credible, possible stronger than that.
My lack of credibility any further is a result of the above. The coup might have triggered the starting events, but ultimately I believe it would have been opposed by both the military and the electorate as a substantial majority.
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Northern Ireland27478 Posts
On November 09 2022 01:21 L_Master wrote:Show nested quote +On November 09 2022 01:14 Gorsameth wrote:On November 09 2022 01:04 L_Master wrote:On November 09 2022 00:57 Gorsameth wrote:On November 08 2022 23:54 L_Master wrote:On November 08 2022 23:38 NewSunshine wrote:On November 08 2022 23:06 Gorsameth wrote:On November 08 2022 22:55 DropBear wrote:
Please tell me Trump isn't running again That is 2 years from now, and I fully expect he will. The protection from being the President is the only defence he has against a whole host of lawsuits and investigations, both civil and criminal, closing in on him. Our best hope by then could be that DeSantis crowds the space and runs as well, splitting the fascist vote. Maybe their supporters start going after each other as they try to assert the one true way to be an American. Probably not, though. They'll fall in line, like a good patriot always does. All indicators are that he will run again. Given the state of the economy and general directionality of events, it's very likely he (or whoever wins R nomination) wins the race too. Which is one of the reasons I'm surprised those of you (most?) are rooting for a liberal victory. A major red wave win followed up with the high probability of the entire global and economic situation being much worse in 2024 would be very, very easy to pin on the conservatives. A more marginal situation isn't, they can play the obstruction card. More broadly though, to have any chance, the Democrats have to turn on their progressive/woke wing that is absolutely going to kill them. Our best hope by then could be that DeSantis crowds the space and runs as well, splitting the fascist vote. Maybe their supporters start going after each other as they try to assert the one true way to be an American. There are so few fascists though. Mayyybe like 10-15% of conservative voters. The rest of the conservatives are quite opposed to such things. I'm seeing a consistent theme in this thread about how a chunk of posters seem to be framing things, and I'd be willing to bit that very few of you are living in close proximity to conservatives, and or have more than 4 or 5 in your common circles. If 90% of Republican voters is quite opposed to fascism I would expect them to punish the Republican representatives for supporting and not condemning a literal insurrection attempt by the, supposed, 10% part of the party that is fascist. The GOP has done absolutely nothing to prevent a repeat of jan 6th, in fact it has done the absolute opposite. Sorry but if your not going to vote against your own fascist party but keep ticking those R's on the ballot I'm going to call a vast majority of Republicans atleast 'ok' with fascism, if not outright fascists themselves. Nobody condemns the insurrection because it wasn't a remotely credible threat for the reasons I discussed before. Moreover, when you're in the frame that almost everyone is in, and don't have prohibitions against GSRRM and irreciprocity, you get things where you're choosing between A (your "side" by identity, but not by action) and B (the enemy) you still choose A. You do make a good point though, I do think that *most* Republicans (60%?) would choose Fascism over "the enemy" (progressive left). If you killed the progressive left, I think that number drops down below 20%, leaving only dissident right (openly fascist) and a small percent of MAGA foks. So if Trump runs again in 2024 you expect him to get significantly less votes then in 2016 and 2020, because a decent chunk of Republicans, but minority, will not vote for a fascist even if the only other option is 'the enemy'? I wish I could share your optimism, such as it is. I expect whichever party is perceived as "in control" to win, probably in a landslide, because I expect the state of affairs in 2024 to be much worse than they are today. I see the potential for anywhere between continued mild recession and outright crash/depression by then. The situation in Europe is awful with energy. CN is underwater with Evergrande and making noise about accelerating Taiwan acquisition sensing that the US can handle any one of the three kleptocracies (RN, CU, IR) but not all three at once. IR is making some noise. There is a rapid acceleration and expansion of industry in the US currently happening, but I have my doubts it's enough to stave off what looks like really hard times coming, especially with continued declining energy EROEI. Show nested quote +So if Trump runs again in 2024 you expect him to get significantly less votes then in 2016 and 2020 In direct response, I think you take for granted the assumption that everyone recognizes that Trump = fascist. I genuinely do not think that most Republicans think of Trump as a fascist. They all believe the media on the left exaggerated what happened. The moderate ones really are repulsed by Trump's antics, but supported a reasonable chunk of his platform. It would be interesting though, to see if they *really* believe that. E.g. what *would* Trump have to do before they turned on him? Or is there no limit and Trump could slide into open fascism and they would follow. Probably would depend a great deal on the programming surrounding it is my gut sense
Coming out for trans rights might tank him.
I don’t believe your general psychological profiling is wrong/off base, but there’s obviously something else at play here. A population doesn’t change so drastically at such a base level in such a small period of time.
I’d argue the main issue is societal pillars that tethered the centre, and especially the right to some kind of mutually agreed reality being shattered is the root cause of many a problem.
If institutions, traditions, predictability and deference to legitimate authority figures is a moderating influence, then what happens when none of them exist any more?
I’m not going to absolve the left of blame in terms of the growing political divide, but in this domain?
Wider American conservatism chose to embrace populism of the kind its courted, the wider left didn’t force them, nor want them to do that.
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I don't think that this has been happening quickly.
The US right has basically run a brainwashing program for decades. Completely polarized schools (teaching fucking creationism? Not teaching evolution? And "news" which is only tangentially related to reality has been established as the norm for large parts of the US population.
This is the result.
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On November 08 2022 23:06 Gorsameth wrote:Show nested quote +On November 08 2022 22:55 DropBear wrote:
Please tell me Trump isn't running again That is 2 years from now, and I fully expect he will. The protection from being the President is the only defence he has against a whole host of lawsuits and investigations, both civil and criminal, closing in on him.
Just wanted to clarify that candidates typically start announcing in the next couple months, Aprilish at the latest in most cases.
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Norway28929 Posts
If political opinions were genetically determined they'd differ far less based on time and place. Now, that certain people are more genetically predisposed towards certain forms of messaging and certain agendas? Sure, no doubt about it. However, that's far from explaining the current level of discord found in the US, and it does not indicate that society is inevitably bound towards this level of conflict, nor that it's impossible to untangle in any way. I can't picture a good way forward in the current media landscape - but that, to me, immediately springs forward as a key: part of the change in level of disharmony can be attributed to a quickly changed media landscape.
Now, I'm sure that social media and the editorial-free media outlets have also simply made visible existing discontent but the area where the US actually distinguishes itself from other western countries - and this is a much newer trend - is the degree to which people inhabit different information universes. Radio hosts had some reach in the past, but it has been dialed up several notches in the past decade alone. This element is profoundly American- I, as someone inhabiting the most leftward 10% of the Norwegian voter base will generally have no problems agreeing on facts with people on the opposite end of our political spectrum, but in the US, it seems like we're looking at 50% of voters being unable to agree on basic facts with 45% of the other group, and the uncertain/up for grabs group being a small single digit number.
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On November 09 2022 05:38 Liquid`Drone wrote:
If political opinions were genetically determined they'd differ far less based on time and place.
Now, I'm sure that social media and the editorial-free media outlets have also simply made visible existing discontent but the area where the US actually distinguishes itself from other western countries - and this is a much newer trend - is the degree to which people inhabit different information universes. Radio hosts had some reach in the past, but it has been dialed up several notches in the past decade alone. This element is profoundly American- I, as someone inhabiting the most leftward 10% of the Norwegian voter base will generally have no problems agreeing on facts with people on the opposite end of our political spectrum, but in the US, it seems like we're looking at 50% of voters being unable to agree on basic facts with 45% of the other group, and the uncertain/up for grabs group being a small single digit number.
Not genetically determined. That sounds....absolute.
Genetically influenced is more accurate.
Reasonable amount of literature on the subject, but quite easy to self observe and collect data overtime. Look and see how many high orderliness, high disgust sensitivity, and low trait openness liberals you see. We're also beginning to see this in AI/ML, where humans are barely better than 50/50 at predicting political orientation from facial structure, AI is moving up into the high 50% range.
However, that's far from explaining the current level of discord found in the US, and it does not indicate that society is inevitably bound towards this level of conflict, nor that it's impossible to untangle in any way. I can't picture a good way forward in the current media landscape - but that, to me, immediately springs forward as a key: part of the change in level of disharmony can be attributed to a quickly changed media landscape.
I could certainly picture that being of immense help.
And asks the question.....well....why not?
Incentives.
As usual, the incentives don't favor that. You're rewarded on both sides for spreading disinformation, and moreover with the loss of the institutions of cultural production you began to lose the incentives, habits, and conditioning of mindfulness that created a culture where integrity was of higher importance, and where the expectation was that you report just the "facts" as accurately as you could.
The battle between L/R, fundamentally, reduces (conservative perspective) to:
1) Things like porn/sex-work/sex-positivity/pleasure seeking/feminism/etc. are a memetic hazard, and more importantly, threaten our institutions of culture production (which reduces to threaten our incentives and ability to cooperate)
2) Wokeism/Class-differences/"Care"/Etc., done the way the left is doing them, creates incentives that increase the growth of the underclass in a way that causes the underclass to become impossible to support, eventually undermining society
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You'll see conservative disagreement anywhere that they think the incentives aren't aligned to reduce the velocity of growth of the underclass, or that encourage behaviors that are perceived to be memetic hazards (e.g. destruction of family -> loss of cultural production -> conservative anger)
Every aspect that conservatives care about fits into one of those two categories, as does the reason they care about it. So the entirety of the moral/validity of conservative claims reduces to a discussion of whether statements #1 or #2 are true.
It's important to note that the left is correct in saying we should care about those born with lesser abilities and to those born into challenging circumstances. So long as we have the resources, it would be truly cruel not to assist those that were dealt a bad hand in life.
Some conservatives do not seem to recognize this, because they cannot simulate the minds of others (low openness, subordinate to plasticity), and thus *ACTUALLY* believe that other people are unsuccessful or disadvantaged because of their own choices.
Where the disagreement, and objection always comes from is either the directionality (accuracy) or specific kinds (precision) of programs the left wants to run. For example, throwing a bunch of money at education (which, in public form, does not work).
This in turn, comes back to whether most of our differences between classes, between the sexes, and between races are a result of genetic differences. Most of the assumptions for implicit racism/sexism seem to stem from the idea that we are actually equal. If so, it's pretty easy to measure and say "yea there must be something going on". But, if there are notable genetic differences, that narrative becomes substantially weaker, and MUCH harder to assess.
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On November 09 2022 05:34 Simberto wrote:
I don't think that this has been happening quickly.
The US right has basically run a brainwashing program for decades. Completely polarized schools (teaching fucking creationism? Not teaching evolution? And "news" which is only tangentially related to reality has been established as the norm for large parts of the US population.
This is the result.
Yea, while religion is a very useful thing, serving important functions in training mindfulness, providing a means of achievement for underclass, calming neuroticism, etc. but......
.....it's also a horrific form of mental malware because of the amount of magical thinking not attached to reality that comes with it.
We need a memetically powerful, yet true, religion.
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On November 09 2022 05:38 Liquid`Drone wrote:
If political opinions were genetically determined they'd differ far less based on time and place. Now, that certain people are more genetically predisposed towards certain forms of messaging and certain agendas? Sure, no doubt about it. However, that's far from explaining the current level of discord found in the US, and it does not indicate that society is inevitably bound towards this level of conflict, nor that it's impossible to untangle in any way. I can't picture a good way forward in the current media landscape - but that, to me, immediately springs forward as a key: part of the change in level of disharmony can be attributed to a quickly changed media landscape.
Now, I'm sure that social media and the editorial-free media outlets have also simply made visible existing discontent but the area where the US actually distinguishes itself from other western countries - and this is a much newer trend - is the degree to which people inhabit different information universes. Radio hosts had some reach in the past, but it has been dialed up several notches in the past decade alone. This element is profoundly American- I, as someone inhabiting the most leftward 10% of the Norwegian voter base will generally have no problems agreeing on facts with people on the opposite end of our political spectrum, but in the US, it seems like we're looking at 50% of voters being unable to agree on basic facts with 45% of the other group, and the uncertain/up for grabs group being a small single digit number.
You can blame some on the media, but the populations, culture, religion and form of democracy is very different as well.
For example, the Christian conservatives is a major force in the US. The Norwegian party for that bunch just polled at 3,3%, and is currently torn to shreds internally by the abortion issue, which they are getting very little sympathy for. Compare that to the US. The US democrats are way more in favour of private healtcare than even right-wing populist Norwegians, and so on...
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EPT
