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On August 16 2021 08:26 Starlightsun wrote:Show nested quote +On August 16 2021 07:12 Introvert wrote:On August 16 2021 00:53 Oleo wrote:On August 15 2021 23:50 Introvert wrote:On August 15 2021 22:50 PhoenixVoid wrote:
I'm quite astonished at how poorly the resistance was projected by experts who were predicting years, months and weeks for the Taliban to take control of Kabul, the major cities and Afghanistan. Just three or four days ago I read a European diplomat or military figure say it would take 90 days for Kabul to be occupied by the Taliban. I guess not even the experts would have expected the ANA to collapse this rapidly with little to no resistance. Biden's outlook on Afghanistan probably based on that intelligence looks quite silly now.
Ultimately, I weep for the people of Afghanistan. I have no trust in the Taliban's word to moderate their rule, and whatever progress was made for women and a generation who grew up under the NATO/American military occupation will soon be erased overnight. Afghanistan will probably be another battleground for powers like Iran, Russia, China and various extremist groups. There will be a flood of Afghan refugees who have to contend with angry anti-refugee sentiment and Western governments who realize another refugee crisis will have to be handled without as much sympathy as the first. The least we can do for the people who collaborated with the NATO coalition is get them out safely and house them for their service. May we at least emerge from this tragedy having learned something, anything. Yes, this is terrible and everyone from Biden on down needs their comeuppance for this. 90 days they said, but now Kabul is gone before everyone is even out. And of course it's worse for those who now have to live under the Taliban, from what I read they are already chasing people down... The US hasn't even lost a service member there in over a year. This is all of course a disgrace for the US and tragic for the people of Afghanistan. It was republicans who invaded with a poor plan. It was republicans who initiated the withdrawal in a poor way. It was republicans who gutted the american intelligence, government and institutions for the last 4 years. But hey, lets blame the Democrats, since they couldnt clean up the republicans mess.  On August 16 2021 00:56 Gorsameth wrote:On August 15 2021 23:50 Introvert wrote:On August 15 2021 22:50 PhoenixVoid wrote:
I'm quite astonished at how poorly the resistance was projected by experts who were predicting years, months and weeks for the Taliban to take control of Kabul, the major cities and Afghanistan. Just three or four days ago I read a European diplomat or military figure say it would take 90 days for Kabul to be occupied by the Taliban. I guess not even the experts would have expected the ANA to collapse this rapidly with little to no resistance. Biden's outlook on Afghanistan probably based on that intelligence looks quite silly now.
Ultimately, I weep for the people of Afghanistan. I have no trust in the Taliban's word to moderate their rule, and whatever progress was made for women and a generation who grew up under the NATO/American military occupation will soon be erased overnight. Afghanistan will probably be another battleground for powers like Iran, Russia, China and various extremist groups. There will be a flood of Afghan refugees who have to contend with angry anti-refugee sentiment and Western governments who realize another refugee crisis will have to be handled without as much sympathy as the first. The least we can do for the people who collaborated with the NATO coalition is get them out safely and house them for their service. May we at least emerge from this tragedy having learned something, anything. Yes, this is terrible and everyone from Biden on down needs their comeuppance for this. 90 days they said, but now Kabul is gone before everyone is even out. And of course it's worse for those who now have to live under the Taliban, from what I read they are already chasing people down... The US hasn't even lost a service member there in over a year. This is all of course a disgrace for the US and tragic for the people of Afghanistan. So you think the US should stay? Lets have Congress vote on that, who do you think will vote against staying more, Democrats or Republicans? I more or less agree with Purressure. But my point here wasn't "Democrats bad!" although I think given Biden and his party this debacle is not entirely a surprise...Now, I didn't agree with Trump's plan either. But this is on Biden (besides, you know, being the one in charge) he wanted out by Sep 11 and hastened the pullout. The reaction of most seems to be at least sadness and surprise at the speed at which the situation is deteriorating but was everyone just going to blame the wind? Think this sequence of events was inevitable? It obviously wasn't, and Biden, the Sec of State, and many others assured everyone it wasn't within the last few weeks. I've seen some reporting that the military brass told Biden not to go so quickly either but he insisted. This is primarily on the president. It's obvious that this wasn't inevitable? Do you think the US military staying there a few more months would have accomplished something that the last 20 years has not? Or that they should have remained indefinitely? There's obviously been a large intelligence failure because the US government seems genuinely taken by surprise. But other than that, I don't see what you expect to have been done since Biden was in office that would have stopped the Taliban from taking over?
I think all the criticism is focused on the idea of keeping Americans safe. If any Americans die from this, it is a huge disaster. If no one dies, nothing bad happened.
The interesting thing is that everyone involved is very motivated to make sure American civilians don't die. The Taliban knows that if they kill a fleeing American, there will be a gigantic retaliation. That retaliation will spiral.
In my perfect world, everyone escapes and we forget Afghanistan exists. Let it just be a Pakistan thing and move on.
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On August 16 2021 07:12 Introvert wrote:Show nested quote +On August 16 2021 00:53 Oleo wrote:On August 15 2021 23:50 Introvert wrote:On August 15 2021 22:50 PhoenixVoid wrote:
I'm quite astonished at how poorly the resistance was projected by experts who were predicting years, months and weeks for the Taliban to take control of Kabul, the major cities and Afghanistan. Just three or four days ago I read a European diplomat or military figure say it would take 90 days for Kabul to be occupied by the Taliban. I guess not even the experts would have expected the ANA to collapse this rapidly with little to no resistance. Biden's outlook on Afghanistan probably based on that intelligence looks quite silly now.
Ultimately, I weep for the people of Afghanistan. I have no trust in the Taliban's word to moderate their rule, and whatever progress was made for women and a generation who grew up under the NATO/American military occupation will soon be erased overnight. Afghanistan will probably be another battleground for powers like Iran, Russia, China and various extremist groups. There will be a flood of Afghan refugees who have to contend with angry anti-refugee sentiment and Western governments who realize another refugee crisis will have to be handled without as much sympathy as the first. The least we can do for the people who collaborated with the NATO coalition is get them out safely and house them for their service. May we at least emerge from this tragedy having learned something, anything. Yes, this is terrible and everyone from Biden on down needs their comeuppance for this. 90 days they said, but now Kabul is gone before everyone is even out. And of course it's worse for those who now have to live under the Taliban, from what I read they are already chasing people down... The US hasn't even lost a service member there in over a year. This is all of course a disgrace for the US and tragic for the people of Afghanistan. It was republicans who invaded with a poor plan. It was republicans who initiated the withdrawal in a poor way. It was republicans who gutted the american intelligence, government and institutions for the last 4 years. But hey, lets blame the Democrats, since they couldnt clean up the republicans mess. Show nested quote +On August 16 2021 00:56 Gorsameth wrote:On August 15 2021 23:50 Introvert wrote:On August 15 2021 22:50 PhoenixVoid wrote:
I'm quite astonished at how poorly the resistance was projected by experts who were predicting years, months and weeks for the Taliban to take control of Kabul, the major cities and Afghanistan. Just three or four days ago I read a European diplomat or military figure say it would take 90 days for Kabul to be occupied by the Taliban. I guess not even the experts would have expected the ANA to collapse this rapidly with little to no resistance. Biden's outlook on Afghanistan probably based on that intelligence looks quite silly now.
Ultimately, I weep for the people of Afghanistan. I have no trust in the Taliban's word to moderate their rule, and whatever progress was made for women and a generation who grew up under the NATO/American military occupation will soon be erased overnight. Afghanistan will probably be another battleground for powers like Iran, Russia, China and various extremist groups. There will be a flood of Afghan refugees who have to contend with angry anti-refugee sentiment and Western governments who realize another refugee crisis will have to be handled without as much sympathy as the first. The least we can do for the people who collaborated with the NATO coalition is get them out safely and house them for their service. May we at least emerge from this tragedy having learned something, anything. Yes, this is terrible and everyone from Biden on down needs their comeuppance for this. 90 days they said, but now Kabul is gone before everyone is even out. And of course it's worse for those who now have to live under the Taliban, from what I read they are already chasing people down... The US hasn't even lost a service member there in over a year. This is all of course a disgrace for the US and tragic for the people of Afghanistan. So you think the US should stay? Lets have Congress vote on that, who do you think will vote against staying more, Democrats or Republicans? I more or less agree with Purressure. But my point here wasn't "Democrats bad!" although I think given Biden and his party this debacle is not entirely a surprise...Now, I didn't agree with Trump's plan either. But this is on Biden (besides, you know, being the one in charge) he wanted out by Sep 11 and hastened the pullout. The reaction of most seems to be at least sadness and surprise at the speed at which the situation is deteriorating but was everyone just going to blame the wind? Think this sequence of events was inevitable? It obviously wasn't, and Biden, the Sec of State, and many others assured everyone it wasn't within the last few weeks. I've seen some reporting that the military brass told Biden not to go so quickly either but he insisted. This is primarily on the president.
Lets make it clear that I think Democrats and Biden share the blame, having said that:
No, surely "Democrats bad" was not your point. Thats why you started with "everyone from Biden on down needs their comeuppance for this".
"Biden wanted out by Sep 11 and hastened the pullout", yet the Americans under Trump agreed to be gone by May 2021, so in reality Biden actually slowed down the pullout.
There is obviously been a problem with the accurateness of intelligence. We all remember what 4 years of Trump did to intelligence agencies, state department etc. How many ambassador positions were vacant at some point again? The cause of bad intel lies in the break down of those institutions.
And then we had the whole stolen elections and a coup slowing the start of the new administration. Oh and stories like this have been regular over the past 8 months...
https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2021-08-11/biden-nominees-for-key-posts-stalled-in-congress-victims-of-gop-protest
But no the first thing that goes seriously wrong in this administration and its: "everyone from Biden on down needs their comeuppance for this". Sure, right after all GOP senators and congresspeople that failed to condemn the coup gave had theirs.
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On August 16 2021 03:12 Gahlo wrote:Show nested quote +On August 16 2021 02:16 Purressure wrote:On August 16 2021 01:17 NewSunshine wrote:On August 16 2021 00:53 Oleo wrote:On August 15 2021 23:50 Introvert wrote:On August 15 2021 22:50 PhoenixVoid wrote:
I'm quite astonished at how poorly the resistance was projected by experts who were predicting years, months and weeks for the Taliban to take control of Kabul, the major cities and Afghanistan. Just three or four days ago I read a European diplomat or military figure say it would take 90 days for Kabul to be occupied by the Taliban. I guess not even the experts would have expected the ANA to collapse this rapidly with little to no resistance. Biden's outlook on Afghanistan probably based on that intelligence looks quite silly now.
Ultimately, I weep for the people of Afghanistan. I have no trust in the Taliban's word to moderate their rule, and whatever progress was made for women and a generation who grew up under the NATO/American military occupation will soon be erased overnight. Afghanistan will probably be another battleground for powers like Iran, Russia, China and various extremist groups. There will be a flood of Afghan refugees who have to contend with angry anti-refugee sentiment and Western governments who realize another refugee crisis will have to be handled without as much sympathy as the first. The least we can do for the people who collaborated with the NATO coalition is get them out safely and house them for their service. May we at least emerge from this tragedy having learned something, anything. Yes, this is terrible and everyone from Biden on down needs their comeuppance for this. 90 days they said, but now Kabul is gone before everyone is even out. And of course it's worse for those who now have to live under the Taliban, from what I read they are already chasing people down... The US hasn't even lost a service member there in over a year. This is all of course a disgrace for the US and tragic for the people of Afghanistan. It was republicans who invaded with a poor plan. It was republicans who initiated the withdrawal in a poor way. It was republicans who gutted the american intelligence, government and institutions for the last 4 years. But hey, lets blame the Democrats, since they couldnt clean up the republicans mess. You've nailed it. Democrats aren't perfect obviously, but they've been on the shitty end of a cycle where Republicans break everything, Democrats try to fix what they can, and Republicans suddenly jump to the moral high ground and point the finger for not effectively resolving all the issues they created. For decades. Maybe let's have some comeuppance for Bush, Cheney, and everyone else down that chain of command, if we're so upset with the current situation all of a sudden. There's no good answer to this situation in Afghanistan, clearly, but Biden didn't snap his fingers and put thousands of troops there. He stepped into a situation created by others. It's still Biden who eventually decided to go ahead with pulling out regardless of how good or bad it may have been at the time. People can blame Republicans all they want, it's Obama who expanded the amount of troops there and left the situation in an unstable condition. Yes, Trump wanted to pull out too, but would he have proceeded seeing how badly people were advising against it the last couple of weeks/months until the order was effectively given by Biden? We don't know. People applauded Biden without realizing the domino effect it would trigger, now people are calling it the worst decision of the century (and it may very well be). Every and any side turns with the wind in whatever direction is favorable to them, don't get yourself dragged into it. Nonsense. When has Trump substantially changed on anything he set his mind to? If anything he would have seen Democrats rallying against it and further dug in his heels. Also, adjusting ones view to take into account new evidence is a healthy way to react to things.
Glad you mentioned new evidence, because there was none. Changing winds after the fact is easy. Saying nonsense is nonsense as there is literally no way to prove Trump would've done the same. He planned for it, sure, but who knows how things would've turned out at the end, no one can make an assumption and call it fact.
That's the unfortunate thing for Biden, all the estimations and calculations were completely wrong, because they didn't take into account the possibility of the ANA preferring to continue living instead of fighting a lost cause.
Most intelligence about collaborators with the US had been leaked weeks ago and it is estimated that the vast majority will be executed regardless of how the ANA would've reacted to the Taliban's rise, so for me personally I would've chosen to fight, but let's be honest, the true collaborators are such a minority they would've been shot in the back by the rest of the ANA.
Apparently the Taliban said they won't persecute them but their word isn't worth much.
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The whole Afghan army completely folding to Taliban in a single week(end), after being trained and equipped by NATO's best military's for so many years is wild to me. The entirety of NATO needs to do some soul searching after this disaster. While the whole military adventure was a mistake, I always felt like at least the local training missions would have some positive result for the country, but apparently even that was a completely useless endeavor.
The scenes from Kabul airport are unlike anything I've seen. Some people are climbing on a launching C-17 like Tom Cruise in mission impossible. (and reportedly fell off in the air).
+ Show Spoiler +
Meanwhile the Netherlands are only now sending a evacuation plane for translators and embassy personnel there today. Impeccable planning :X
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United States43222 Posts
They could have built 250 new pairs of World Trade Center towers for the cost of not defeating the Taliban.
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On August 16 2021 21:38 FueledUpAndReadyToGo wrote:The whole Afghan army completely folding to Taliban in a single week(end), after being trained and equipped by NATO's best military's for so many years is wild to me. The entirety of NATO needs to do some soul searching after this disaster. While the whole military adventure was a mistake, I always felt like at least the local training missions would have some positive result for the country, but apparently even that was a completely useless endeavor. The scenes from Kabul airport are unlike anything I've seen. Some people are climbing on a launching C-17 like Tom Cruise in mission impossible. (and reportedly fell off in the air). + Show Spoiler +Meanwhile the Netherlands are only now sending a evacuation plane for translators and embassy personnel there today. Impeccable planning :X
A read on why this should have been expected: https://scholars-stage.org/fighting-like-taliban/
TLDR: Fighting is performative, most soldiers just choose who they think is going to win at any time.
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So far, several countries have decided to send troops for evac and 2 or more armed men have been shot at the airport by US forces.
With the crowd on the tarmac, no planes are allowed to depart, even though footage shows people clinging on to planes preparing to take off.. what a shitshow.
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On August 16 2021 23:41 cLutZ wrote:Show nested quote +On August 16 2021 21:38 FueledUpAndReadyToGo wrote:The whole Afghan army completely folding to Taliban in a single week(end), after being trained and equipped by NATO's best military's for so many years is wild to me. The entirety of NATO needs to do some soul searching after this disaster. While the whole military adventure was a mistake, I always felt like at least the local training missions would have some positive result for the country, but apparently even that was a completely useless endeavor. The scenes from Kabul airport are unlike anything I've seen. Some people are climbing on a launching C-17 like Tom Cruise in mission impossible. (and reportedly fell off in the air). + Show Spoiler +Meanwhile the Netherlands are only now sending a evacuation plane for translators and embassy personnel there today. Impeccable planning :X A read on why this should have been expected: https://scholars-stage.org/fighting-like-taliban/TLDR: Fighting is performative, most soldiers just choose who they think is going to win at any time.
Just skimmed through it, seems fairly accurate and a good thing to read thoroughly when you have the time for it.
Another reason is because of the US system which was forced onto the ANA, which relied heavily on air and with the US pulling out, so did the air assets as well so the ANA was basically helpless.
A lot of the well trained had died during their fight against ISIS too, and the ones who were still alive had their identity leaked to the taliban, estimating the majority of them will be killed by the Taliban, whether that's actually going to happen remains to be seen, but with the US pulling out, the ANA had their crutches removed and were merely able to crawl.
Combine that with what is well explained in what you linked, it's no surprise at all to see Afghanistan fall so easily.
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It was fairly easy to see it coming. Most afghans don't see the difference between the ANA and the talibans. What a corrupt pile of shit, no wonder it all fell down in less than a week.
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When you try to convince people you are liberating them, and they disagree, and they want you gone, it should be no surprise the fake government crumbled in minutes. It was an illegitimate government from the beginning. Such a silly situation.
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On August 16 2021 23:41 cLutZ wrote:Show nested quote +On August 16 2021 21:38 FueledUpAndReadyToGo wrote:The whole Afghan army completely folding to Taliban in a single week(end), after being trained and equipped by NATO's best military's for so many years is wild to me. The entirety of NATO needs to do some soul searching after this disaster. While the whole military adventure was a mistake, I always felt like at least the local training missions would have some positive result for the country, but apparently even that was a completely useless endeavor. The scenes from Kabul airport are unlike anything I've seen. Some people are climbing on a launching C-17 like Tom Cruise in mission impossible. (and reportedly fell off in the air). + Show Spoiler +Meanwhile the Netherlands are only now sending a evacuation plane for translators and embassy personnel there today. Impeccable planning :X A read on why this should have been expected: https://scholars-stage.org/fighting-like-taliban/TLDR: Fighting is performative, most soldiers just choose who they think is going to win at any time.
Interesting read, thanks. Might look up the books quoted. So apparently back in the early days it was Taliban that were willing to drop arms and stop fighting but Rumsfeld and Cheney fucked it up of course.
both in the immediate aftermath of his 2001 victories and sporadically in 2002 Taliban leaders offered to quit armed resistance and join in with the new Afghani government. Karzai was in favor. Washington was not. Without consulting Karzai or the CIA folks running the show on the ground, Donald Rumsfeld announced via press conference that defeated Taliban would not be negotiated or cooperated with; when the CIA tried to press the issue through interagency channels a few months later, Dick Cheney shut the effort down
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The US needs to do a better job of installing puppet governments that will at least have enough motivation to be willing to fight against the armed opposition rather than fold to it the moment things start to take a turn for the worse. Afghanistan is not the only example of this same exact thing happening.
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Looks like Afghans apparently prefer the Taliban all along. I expected it would be back to full scale civil war when the US forces leave. But it looks like it's relatively bloodless takeover.
I don't know what's worse TBH...
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On August 17 2021 03:00 JimmiC wrote:
I think the goal should be for them to not be puppet governments. The issues though are that generally dictators have done a good job of creating a power vacuum outside of their loyal inner circle. Also, the whole apparatus tends to be corrupt and it is not realistic to fire everyone and start from scratch. So instead the goal tends to be to allow the people to continue to be corrupt but follow a new top person which does not end up helping the masses and leads them to "not care" who is at the top.
If the last 20 years have taught us anything, it’s that the Middle East needs dictators. It is what works for them. Our democracy has no place there. They don’t want their women in schools. They don’t want science. Find a way to extract value from them through the dictators and move on. We don’t need to give up on imperialism, just need a more realistic method.
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On August 17 2021 03:12 Mohdoo wrote:Show nested quote +On August 17 2021 03:00 JimmiC wrote:
I think the goal should be for them to not be puppet governments. The issues though are that generally dictators have done a good job of creating a power vacuum outside of their loyal inner circle. Also, the whole apparatus tends to be corrupt and it is not realistic to fire everyone and start from scratch. So instead the goal tends to be to allow the people to continue to be corrupt but follow a new top person which does not end up helping the masses and leads them to "not care" who is at the top. If the last 20 years have taught us anything, it’s that the Middle East needs dictators. It is what works for them. Our democracy has no place there. They don’t want their women in schools. They don’t want science. Find a way to extract value from them through the dictators and move on. We don’t need to give up on imperialism, just need a more realistic method.
Ask the women in there. Or I guess ask anyone in a situation where they don't have to fear violence if they speak up. If they want Taliban they surely be able to elect them also in a democratic and free election. I find it very lazy to shrug it off as something the majority of the people there want.
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On August 17 2021 03:20 Oukka wrote:Show nested quote +On August 17 2021 03:12 Mohdoo wrote:On August 17 2021 03:00 JimmiC wrote:
I think the goal should be for them to not be puppet governments. The issues though are that generally dictators have done a good job of creating a power vacuum outside of their loyal inner circle. Also, the whole apparatus tends to be corrupt and it is not realistic to fire everyone and start from scratch. So instead the goal tends to be to allow the people to continue to be corrupt but follow a new top person which does not end up helping the masses and leads them to "not care" who is at the top. If the last 20 years have taught us anything, it’s that the Middle East needs dictators. It is what works for them. Our democracy has no place there. They don’t want their women in schools. They don’t want science. Find a way to extract value from them through the dictators and move on. We don’t need to give up on imperialism, just need a more realistic method. Ask the women in there. Or I guess ask anyone in a situation where they don't have to fear violence if they speak up. If they want Taliban they surely be able to elect them also in a democratic and free election. I find it very lazy to shrug it off as something the majority of the people there want.
The speed with which the entire Afghanistan "army" joined the Taliban speaks volumes. This entire thing was a farce. Regardless of what you think about which women actually want freedom, an enormous amount of Afghanistan doesn't want it.
This issue is already resolved. There isn't anything left to discuss here. I don't see any world where the last week in Afghanistan (I'm just writing Afg from here on because its just fucking annoying to type) shows any perspective other than "Afg fully and completely rejected western beliefs". If there was annnnny chance of our idealistic world applying to Afg, it wouldn't have looked like this. I don't see how you can look at the current Afg situation and wonder if maybe there is a path to giving women freedom. Its in the dirt, buried, 100 meters underground, with cement on top. And then they built a sky scraper on top of that cement.
Edit: if we want to help women in Afg, we should help them move somewhere else. Trying to “fix” afg is a fool’s errand. May as well try to drink the Pacific Ocean. Equal chance of success
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On August 17 2021 03:28 Mohdoo wrote:Show nested quote +On August 17 2021 03:20 Oukka wrote:On August 17 2021 03:12 Mohdoo wrote:On August 17 2021 03:00 JimmiC wrote:
I think the goal should be for them to not be puppet governments. The issues though are that generally dictators have done a good job of creating a power vacuum outside of their loyal inner circle. Also, the whole apparatus tends to be corrupt and it is not realistic to fire everyone and start from scratch. So instead the goal tends to be to allow the people to continue to be corrupt but follow a new top person which does not end up helping the masses and leads them to "not care" who is at the top. If the last 20 years have taught us anything, it’s that the Middle East needs dictators. It is what works for them. Our democracy has no place there. They don’t want their women in schools. They don’t want science. Find a way to extract value from them through the dictators and move on. We don’t need to give up on imperialism, just need a more realistic method. Ask the women in there. Or I guess ask anyone in a situation where they don't have to fear violence if they speak up. If they want Taliban they surely be able to elect them also in a democratic and free election. I find it very lazy to shrug it off as something the majority of the people there want. The speed with which the entire Afghanistan "army" joined the Taliban speaks volumes. This entire thing was a farce. Regardless of what you think about which women actually want freedom, an enormous amount of Afghanistan doesn't want it. This issue is already resolved. There isn't anything left to discuss here. I don't see any world where the last week in Afghanistan (I'm just writing Afg from here on because its just fucking annoying to type) shows any perspective other than "Afg fully and completely rejected western beliefs". If there was annnnny chance of our idealistic world applying to Afg, it wouldn't have looked like this. I don't see how you can look at the current Afg situation and wonder if maybe there is a path to giving women freedom. Its in the dirt, buried, 100 meters underground, with cement on top. And then they built a sky scraper on top of that cement. Edit: if we want to help women in Afg, we should help them move somewhere else. Trying to “fix” afg is a fool’s errand. May as well try to drink the Pacific Ocean. Equal chance of success
I mean…I think there’s some more insights that can be gleaned from this discussion. Based on the source linked earlier, it seems the main reason ANA defected so quickly is because the Taliban were destined to win barring foreign assistance. The Afghan people seem done with fighting and want to just move on, no matter what form that takes. I don’t think that’s mutually exclusive with the Western cultural imperialism thing we had going on there, but if the Taliban decides to squash it I doubt the populace will take up arms to fight for it.
I don’t know the specifics of the nation-building approaches that were done, but it seems they were very top-down and more interested in quashing resistance than actual nation-building. It’s very conceivable though, especially in hindsight, to picture an alternate timeline where this whole thing works out (integrate Taliban into unified government early, more outreach to the rural areas, etc.). I wouldn’t throw Afghanistan into the basket of irredeemables and deplorables.
EDIT - That being said, moving forward I don’t see a path for freedom for Afghan women anytime soon.
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On August 17 2021 03:55 Ryzel wrote:Show nested quote +On August 17 2021 03:28 Mohdoo wrote:On August 17 2021 03:20 Oukka wrote:On August 17 2021 03:12 Mohdoo wrote:On August 17 2021 03:00 JimmiC wrote:
I think the goal should be for them to not be puppet governments. The issues though are that generally dictators have done a good job of creating a power vacuum outside of their loyal inner circle. Also, the whole apparatus tends to be corrupt and it is not realistic to fire everyone and start from scratch. So instead the goal tends to be to allow the people to continue to be corrupt but follow a new top person which does not end up helping the masses and leads them to "not care" who is at the top. If the last 20 years have taught us anything, it’s that the Middle East needs dictators. It is what works for them. Our democracy has no place there. They don’t want their women in schools. They don’t want science. Find a way to extract value from them through the dictators and move on. We don’t need to give up on imperialism, just need a more realistic method. Ask the women in there. Or I guess ask anyone in a situation where they don't have to fear violence if they speak up. If they want Taliban they surely be able to elect them also in a democratic and free election. I find it very lazy to shrug it off as something the majority of the people there want. The speed with which the entire Afghanistan "army" joined the Taliban speaks volumes. This entire thing was a farce. Regardless of what you think about which women actually want freedom, an enormous amount of Afghanistan doesn't want it. This issue is already resolved. There isn't anything left to discuss here. I don't see any world where the last week in Afghanistan (I'm just writing Afg from here on because its just fucking annoying to type) shows any perspective other than "Afg fully and completely rejected western beliefs". If there was annnnny chance of our idealistic world applying to Afg, it wouldn't have looked like this. I don't see how you can look at the current Afg situation and wonder if maybe there is a path to giving women freedom. Its in the dirt, buried, 100 meters underground, with cement on top. And then they built a sky scraper on top of that cement. Edit: if we want to help women in Afg, we should help them move somewhere else. Trying to “fix” afg is a fool’s errand. May as well try to drink the Pacific Ocean. Equal chance of success I mean…I think there’s some more insights that can be gleaned from this discussion. Based on the source linked earlier, it seems the main reason ANA defected so quickly is because the Taliban were destined to win barring foreign assistance. The Afghan people seem done with fighting and want to just move on, no matter what form that takes. I don’t think that’s mutually exclusive with the Western cultural imperialism thing we had going on there, but if the Taliban decides to squash it I doubt the populace will take up arms to fight for it.
I don’t know the specifics of the nation-building approaches that were done, but it seems they were very top-down and more interested in quashing resistance than actual nation-building. It’s very conceivable though, especially in hindsight, to picture an alternate timeline where this whole thing works out (integrate Taliban into unified government early, more outreach to the rural areas, etc.). I wouldn’t throw Afghanistan into the basket of irredeemables and deplorables. EDIT - That being said, moving forward I don’t see a path for freedom for Afghan women anytime soon.
You're right that there is nuance here that we technically don't know. Regardless, we DO know that there is no army in Afg that is willing to fight for women's rights. Regardless of how or why they all defected and surrendered, they did. The Taliban now has the entire Afg military under its wing. If the situation wasn't hopeless before (it was), it is now hopeless.
When I said the issue is settled, my main point is that the ship sailed. I think it is totttttttttttally insane that there exist people who are like "So how can we salvage this and keep women in school?". It is so incredibly naive and misguided.
Other potential things for people who want to have Afg women in schools to explore, if they are looking for impossible things to pat themselves on the back for supporting:
- Lets get more abortion clinics in rural alabama
- Lets enact reparations across the south
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On August 17 2021 03:28 Mohdoo wrote:Show nested quote +On August 17 2021 03:20 Oukka wrote:On August 17 2021 03:12 Mohdoo wrote:On August 17 2021 03:00 JimmiC wrote:
I think the goal should be for them to not be puppet governments. The issues though are that generally dictators have done a good job of creating a power vacuum outside of their loyal inner circle. Also, the whole apparatus tends to be corrupt and it is not realistic to fire everyone and start from scratch. So instead the goal tends to be to allow the people to continue to be corrupt but follow a new top person which does not end up helping the masses and leads them to "not care" who is at the top. If the last 20 years have taught us anything, it’s that the Middle East needs dictators. It is what works for them. Our democracy has no place there. They don’t want their women in schools. They don’t want science. Find a way to extract value from them through the dictators and move on. We don’t need to give up on imperialism, just need a more realistic method. Ask the women in there. Or I guess ask anyone in a situation where they don't have to fear violence if they speak up. If they want Taliban they surely be able to elect them also in a democratic and free election. I find it very lazy to shrug it off as something the majority of the people there want. The speed with which the entire Afghanistan "army" joined the Taliban speaks volumes. This entire thing was a farce. Regardless of what you think about which women actually want freedom, an enormous amount of Afghanistan doesn't want it. This issue is already resolved. There isn't anything left to discuss here. I don't see any world where the last week in Afghanistan (I'm just writing Afg from here on because its just fucking annoying to type) shows any perspective other than "Afg fully and completely rejected western beliefs". If there was annnnny chance of our idealistic world applying to Afg, it wouldn't have looked like this. I don't see how you can look at the current Afg situation and wonder if maybe there is a path to giving women freedom. Its in the dirt, buried, 100 meters underground, with cement on top. And then they built a sky scraper on top of that cement. Edit: if we want to help women in Afg, we should help them move somewhere else. Trying to “fix” afg is a fool’s errand. May as well try to drink the Pacific Ocean. Equal chance of success
The problem is the American thinking that the people we're helping are the problem and not the fake democracy puppet government we installed. You aren't making a liberal society when you exclude the Taliban which represent a majority or at least a plurality of the country.
On August 17 2021 03:12 Mohdoo wrote:Show nested quote +On August 17 2021 03:00 JimmiC wrote:
I think the goal should be for them to not be puppet governments. The issues though are that generally dictators have done a good job of creating a power vacuum outside of their loyal inner circle. Also, the whole apparatus tends to be corrupt and it is not realistic to fire everyone and start from scratch. So instead the goal tends to be to allow the people to continue to be corrupt but follow a new top person which does not end up helping the masses and leads them to "not care" who is at the top. If the last 20 years have taught us anything, it’s that the Middle East needs dictators.
Do they need a dictator or do they just not like the American dictator we gave them? American's really need to grasp this concept.
On August 17 2021 03:55 Ryzel wrote:Show nested quote +On August 17 2021 03:28 Mohdoo wrote:On August 17 2021 03:20 Oukka wrote:On August 17 2021 03:12 Mohdoo wrote:On August 17 2021 03:00 JimmiC wrote:
I think the goal should be for them to not be puppet governments. The issues though are that generally dictators have done a good job of creating a power vacuum outside of their loyal inner circle. Also, the whole apparatus tends to be corrupt and it is not realistic to fire everyone and start from scratch. So instead the goal tends to be to allow the people to continue to be corrupt but follow a new top person which does not end up helping the masses and leads them to "not care" who is at the top. If the last 20 years have taught us anything, it’s that the Middle East needs dictators. It is what works for them. Our democracy has no place there. They don’t want their women in schools. They don’t want science. Find a way to extract value from them through the dictators and move on. We don’t need to give up on imperialism, just need a more realistic method. Ask the women in there. Or I guess ask anyone in a situation where they don't have to fear violence if they speak up. If they want Taliban they surely be able to elect them also in a democratic and free election. I find it very lazy to shrug it off as something the majority of the people there want. The speed with which the entire Afghanistan "army" joined the Taliban speaks volumes. This entire thing was a farce. Regardless of what you think about which women actually want freedom, an enormous amount of Afghanistan doesn't want it. This issue is already resolved. There isn't anything left to discuss here. I don't see any world where the last week in Afghanistan (I'm just writing Afg from here on because its just fucking annoying to type) shows any perspective other than "Afg fully and completely rejected western beliefs". If there was annnnny chance of our idealistic world applying to Afg, it wouldn't have looked like this. I don't see how you can look at the current Afg situation and wonder if maybe there is a path to giving women freedom. Its in the dirt, buried, 100 meters underground, with cement on top. And then they built a sky scraper on top of that cement. Edit: if we want to help women in Afg, we should help them move somewhere else. Trying to “fix” afg is a fool’s errand. May as well try to drink the Pacific Ocean. Equal chance of success I mean…I think there’s some more insights that can be gleaned from this discussion. Based on the source linked earlier, it seems the main reason ANA defected so quickly is because the Taliban were destined to win barring foreign assistance. The Afghan people seem done with fighting and want to just move on, no matter what form that takes. I don’t think that’s mutually exclusive with the Western cultural imperialism thing we had going on there, but if the Taliban decides to squash it I doubt the populace will take up arms to fight for it. I don’t know the specifics of the nation-building approaches that were done, but it seems they were very top-down and more interested in quashing resistance than actual nation-building. It’s very conceivable though, especially in hindsight, to picture an alternate timeline where this whole thing works out (integrate Taliban into unified government early, more outreach to the rural areas, etc.). I wouldn’t throw Afghanistan into the basket of irredeemables and deplorables. EDIT - That being said, moving forward I don’t see a path for freedom for Afghan women anytime soon.
There were some projects like the big circle road to improve trade and movement, but I think that got lost in corruption.
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EPT
