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On August 16 2021 01:30 LegalLord wrote:Show nested quote +On August 16 2021 01:18 Mohdoo wrote:
This next 2 years will be very good for understanding how the US should interact with the suffering world. If Afghanistan ends up worse in 2 years than it was 6 months ago, people need to drop the "world police!!!!" Shtick and let the US do its job. If it ends up better, great, we can save a lot of money and lives.
Since women are being forced to resign from universities and the covid vaccine has been outlawed, I gotta admit guys, it kind of looks bad. But I'll wait and see I have little faith that the Taliban will be a beacon of truth, justice, and the American way inside of Afghanistan. But if they can keep out the Islamist influences a la Al Qaeda / ISIS, that's still a win. The US doesn't really have a lot of qualms with dictators as long as they are US-friendly either, so that part hardly matters. I expect the next year or so to involve all the surrounding countries taking special precautions to secure their Afghani border and seeing if diplomatic missions remain viable. If they do, trade and infrastructure could follow. If not, and Afghanistan becomes an Islamist hotbed - probably China's turn to be up to bat.
Al Qaeda already operates in Taliban territory. They're not going to keep them out.
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On August 16 2021 02:30 Mohdoo wrote:Show nested quote +On August 16 2021 02:16 Purressure wrote:On August 16 2021 01:17 NewSunshine wrote:On August 16 2021 00:53 Oleo wrote:On August 15 2021 23:50 Introvert wrote:On August 15 2021 22:50 PhoenixVoid wrote:
I'm quite astonished at how poorly the resistance was projected by experts who were predicting years, months and weeks for the Taliban to take control of Kabul, the major cities and Afghanistan. Just three or four days ago I read a European diplomat or military figure say it would take 90 days for Kabul to be occupied by the Taliban. I guess not even the experts would have expected the ANA to collapse this rapidly with little to no resistance. Biden's outlook on Afghanistan probably based on that intelligence looks quite silly now.
Ultimately, I weep for the people of Afghanistan. I have no trust in the Taliban's word to moderate their rule, and whatever progress was made for women and a generation who grew up under the NATO/American military occupation will soon be erased overnight. Afghanistan will probably be another battleground for powers like Iran, Russia, China and various extremist groups. There will be a flood of Afghan refugees who have to contend with angry anti-refugee sentiment and Western governments who realize another refugee crisis will have to be handled without as much sympathy as the first. The least we can do for the people who collaborated with the NATO coalition is get them out safely and house them for their service. May we at least emerge from this tragedy having learned something, anything. Yes, this is terrible and everyone from Biden on down needs their comeuppance for this. 90 days they said, but now Kabul is gone before everyone is even out. And of course it's worse for those who now have to live under the Taliban, from what I read they are already chasing people down... The US hasn't even lost a service member there in over a year. This is all of course a disgrace for the US and tragic for the people of Afghanistan. It was republicans who invaded with a poor plan. It was republicans who initiated the withdrawal in a poor way. It was republicans who gutted the american intelligence, government and institutions for the last 4 years. But hey, lets blame the Democrats, since they couldnt clean up the republicans mess.  You've nailed it. Democrats aren't perfect obviously, but they've been on the shitty end of a cycle where Republicans break everything, Democrats try to fix what they can, and Republicans suddenly jump to the moral high ground and point the finger for not effectively resolving all the issues they created. For decades. Maybe let's have some comeuppance for Bush, Cheney, and everyone else down that chain of command, if we're so upset with the current situation all of a sudden. There's no good answer to this situation in Afghanistan, clearly, but Biden didn't snap his fingers and put thousands of troops there. He stepped into a situation created by others. It's still Biden who eventually decided to go ahead with pulling out regardless of how good or bad it may have been at the time. People can blame Republicans all they want, it's Obama who expanded the amount of troops there and left the situation in an unstable condition. Yes, Trump wanted to pull out too, but would he have proceeded seeing how badly people were advising against it the last couple of weeks/months until the order was effectively given by Biden? We don't know. People applauded Biden without realizing the domino effect it would trigger, now people are calling it the worst decision of the century (and it may very well be). Every and any side turns with the wind in whatever direction is favorable to them, don't get yourself dragged into it. I would argue the speed with which Afghanistan fell shows it was the right call. The situation was totally hopeless. The complete dissolution of the government shows it was never real to begin with. There was already a ton of subterfuge/betrayal happening. I think the reality of the situation is that we were putting on a show. We were probably screwed for the past ~year. We never had the support of the citizens. They didn't want us there. They prefer the Taliban. That's the reality. Nothing we can do so long as that is true.
Depends where you go I guess. Women being allowed to go to school etc was a good thing and now it's been taken away from them by the Taliban etc.. I'm sure a lot of the pros will be missed, regardless of how they feel about Americans in general.
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On August 16 2021 02:40 Purressure wrote:Show nested quote +On August 16 2021 02:30 Mohdoo wrote:On August 16 2021 02:16 Purressure wrote:On August 16 2021 01:17 NewSunshine wrote:On August 16 2021 00:53 Oleo wrote:On August 15 2021 23:50 Introvert wrote:On August 15 2021 22:50 PhoenixVoid wrote:
I'm quite astonished at how poorly the resistance was projected by experts who were predicting years, months and weeks for the Taliban to take control of Kabul, the major cities and Afghanistan. Just three or four days ago I read a European diplomat or military figure say it would take 90 days for Kabul to be occupied by the Taliban. I guess not even the experts would have expected the ANA to collapse this rapidly with little to no resistance. Biden's outlook on Afghanistan probably based on that intelligence looks quite silly now.
Ultimately, I weep for the people of Afghanistan. I have no trust in the Taliban's word to moderate their rule, and whatever progress was made for women and a generation who grew up under the NATO/American military occupation will soon be erased overnight. Afghanistan will probably be another battleground for powers like Iran, Russia, China and various extremist groups. There will be a flood of Afghan refugees who have to contend with angry anti-refugee sentiment and Western governments who realize another refugee crisis will have to be handled without as much sympathy as the first. The least we can do for the people who collaborated with the NATO coalition is get them out safely and house them for their service. May we at least emerge from this tragedy having learned something, anything. Yes, this is terrible and everyone from Biden on down needs their comeuppance for this. 90 days they said, but now Kabul is gone before everyone is even out. And of course it's worse for those who now have to live under the Taliban, from what I read they are already chasing people down... The US hasn't even lost a service member there in over a year. This is all of course a disgrace for the US and tragic for the people of Afghanistan. It was republicans who invaded with a poor plan. It was republicans who initiated the withdrawal in a poor way. It was republicans who gutted the american intelligence, government and institutions for the last 4 years. But hey, lets blame the Democrats, since they couldnt clean up the republicans mess. You've nailed it. Democrats aren't perfect obviously, but they've been on the shitty end of a cycle where Republicans break everything, Democrats try to fix what they can, and Republicans suddenly jump to the moral high ground and point the finger for not effectively resolving all the issues they created. For decades. Maybe let's have some comeuppance for Bush, Cheney, and everyone else down that chain of command, if we're so upset with the current situation all of a sudden. There's no good answer to this situation in Afghanistan, clearly, but Biden didn't snap his fingers and put thousands of troops there. He stepped into a situation created by others. It's still Biden who eventually decided to go ahead with pulling out regardless of how good or bad it may have been at the time. People can blame Republicans all they want, it's Obama who expanded the amount of troops there and left the situation in an unstable condition. Yes, Trump wanted to pull out too, but would he have proceeded seeing how badly people were advising against it the last couple of weeks/months until the order was effectively given by Biden? We don't know. People applauded Biden without realizing the domino effect it would trigger, now people are calling it the worst decision of the century (and it may very well be). Every and any side turns with the wind in whatever direction is favorable to them, don't get yourself dragged into it. I would argue the speed with which Afghanistan fell shows it was the right call. The situation was totally hopeless. The complete dissolution of the government shows it was never real to begin with. There was already a ton of subterfuge/betrayal happening. I think the reality of the situation is that we were putting on a show. We were probably screwed for the past ~year. We never had the support of the citizens. They didn't want us there. They prefer the Taliban. That's the reality. Nothing we can do so long as that is true. Depends where you go I guess. Women being allowed to go to school etc was a good thing and now it's been taken away from them by the Taliban etc.. I'm sure a lot of the pros will be missed, regardless of how they feel about Americans in general.
I think one thing that is hard for us to grasp is the idea that a population can overwhelmingly think women in school is a bad thing. If they legitimately think that, what are we supposed to do? We can't just explain to them they are wrong. We tried that. They let the Taliban in the moment we looked away. They never appreciated us to begin with. Some, sure, but not nearly enough. We never for a moment won the cultural war on the Taliban. We've just been occupiers the whole time.
My understanding is that Afghanistan, as a whole, has extremely negative views of women in schools. Think about rural areas of the US. How many of them feel any incentive to modernize? They don't care. They have what works for them and they don't want what we got.
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On August 16 2021 02:30 Mohdoo wrote:Show nested quote +On August 16 2021 02:16 Purressure wrote:On August 16 2021 01:17 NewSunshine wrote:On August 16 2021 00:53 Oleo wrote:On August 15 2021 23:50 Introvert wrote:On August 15 2021 22:50 PhoenixVoid wrote:
I'm quite astonished at how poorly the resistance was projected by experts who were predicting years, months and weeks for the Taliban to take control of Kabul, the major cities and Afghanistan. Just three or four days ago I read a European diplomat or military figure say it would take 90 days for Kabul to be occupied by the Taliban. I guess not even the experts would have expected the ANA to collapse this rapidly with little to no resistance. Biden's outlook on Afghanistan probably based on that intelligence looks quite silly now.
Ultimately, I weep for the people of Afghanistan. I have no trust in the Taliban's word to moderate their rule, and whatever progress was made for women and a generation who grew up under the NATO/American military occupation will soon be erased overnight. Afghanistan will probably be another battleground for powers like Iran, Russia, China and various extremist groups. There will be a flood of Afghan refugees who have to contend with angry anti-refugee sentiment and Western governments who realize another refugee crisis will have to be handled without as much sympathy as the first. The least we can do for the people who collaborated with the NATO coalition is get them out safely and house them for their service. May we at least emerge from this tragedy having learned something, anything. Yes, this is terrible and everyone from Biden on down needs their comeuppance for this. 90 days they said, but now Kabul is gone before everyone is even out. And of course it's worse for those who now have to live under the Taliban, from what I read they are already chasing people down... The US hasn't even lost a service member there in over a year. This is all of course a disgrace for the US and tragic for the people of Afghanistan. It was republicans who invaded with a poor plan. It was republicans who initiated the withdrawal in a poor way. It was republicans who gutted the american intelligence, government and institutions for the last 4 years. But hey, lets blame the Democrats, since they couldnt clean up the republicans mess. You've nailed it. Democrats aren't perfect obviously, but they've been on the shitty end of a cycle where Republicans break everything, Democrats try to fix what they can, and Republicans suddenly jump to the moral high ground and point the finger for not effectively resolving all the issues they created. For decades. Maybe let's have some comeuppance for Bush, Cheney, and everyone else down that chain of command, if we're so upset with the current situation all of a sudden. There's no good answer to this situation in Afghanistan, clearly, but Biden didn't snap his fingers and put thousands of troops there. He stepped into a situation created by others. It's still Biden who eventually decided to go ahead with pulling out regardless of how good or bad it may have been at the time. People can blame Republicans all they want, it's Obama who expanded the amount of troops there and left the situation in an unstable condition. Yes, Trump wanted to pull out too, but would he have proceeded seeing how badly people were advising against it the last couple of weeks/months until the order was effectively given by Biden? We don't know. People applauded Biden without realizing the domino effect it would trigger, now people are calling it the worst decision of the century (and it may very well be). Every and any side turns with the wind in whatever direction is favorable to them, don't get yourself dragged into it. I would argue the speed with which Afghanistan fell shows it was the right call. The situation was totally hopeless. The complete dissolution of the government shows it was never real to begin with. There was already a ton of subterfuge/betrayal happening. I think the reality of the situation is that we were putting on a show. We were probably screwed for the past ~year. We never had the support of the citizens. They didn't want us there. They prefer the Taliban. That's the reality. Nothing we can do so long as that is true.
Yeah I think those are good points. The speed with which the government collapsed just shows how insubstantial it really was. We were never close to winning any kind of cultural war, and militarily it seems the US tried to make a clone of its own army. I guess one thing to learn from this is to stop trying to impose our way of governance and running a military onto other countries. Maybe not invading and occupying them too might be a good idea.
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On August 16 2021 02:58 Starlightsun wrote:Show nested quote +On August 16 2021 02:30 Mohdoo wrote:On August 16 2021 02:16 Purressure wrote:On August 16 2021 01:17 NewSunshine wrote:On August 16 2021 00:53 Oleo wrote:On August 15 2021 23:50 Introvert wrote:On August 15 2021 22:50 PhoenixVoid wrote:
I'm quite astonished at how poorly the resistance was projected by experts who were predicting years, months and weeks for the Taliban to take control of Kabul, the major cities and Afghanistan. Just three or four days ago I read a European diplomat or military figure say it would take 90 days for Kabul to be occupied by the Taliban. I guess not even the experts would have expected the ANA to collapse this rapidly with little to no resistance. Biden's outlook on Afghanistan probably based on that intelligence looks quite silly now.
Ultimately, I weep for the people of Afghanistan. I have no trust in the Taliban's word to moderate their rule, and whatever progress was made for women and a generation who grew up under the NATO/American military occupation will soon be erased overnight. Afghanistan will probably be another battleground for powers like Iran, Russia, China and various extremist groups. There will be a flood of Afghan refugees who have to contend with angry anti-refugee sentiment and Western governments who realize another refugee crisis will have to be handled without as much sympathy as the first. The least we can do for the people who collaborated with the NATO coalition is get them out safely and house them for their service. May we at least emerge from this tragedy having learned something, anything. Yes, this is terrible and everyone from Biden on down needs their comeuppance for this. 90 days they said, but now Kabul is gone before everyone is even out. And of course it's worse for those who now have to live under the Taliban, from what I read they are already chasing people down... The US hasn't even lost a service member there in over a year. This is all of course a disgrace for the US and tragic for the people of Afghanistan. It was republicans who invaded with a poor plan. It was republicans who initiated the withdrawal in a poor way. It was republicans who gutted the american intelligence, government and institutions for the last 4 years. But hey, lets blame the Democrats, since they couldnt clean up the republicans mess. You've nailed it. Democrats aren't perfect obviously, but they've been on the shitty end of a cycle where Republicans break everything, Democrats try to fix what they can, and Republicans suddenly jump to the moral high ground and point the finger for not effectively resolving all the issues they created. For decades. Maybe let's have some comeuppance for Bush, Cheney, and everyone else down that chain of command, if we're so upset with the current situation all of a sudden. There's no good answer to this situation in Afghanistan, clearly, but Biden didn't snap his fingers and put thousands of troops there. He stepped into a situation created by others. It's still Biden who eventually decided to go ahead with pulling out regardless of how good or bad it may have been at the time. People can blame Republicans all they want, it's Obama who expanded the amount of troops there and left the situation in an unstable condition. Yes, Trump wanted to pull out too, but would he have proceeded seeing how badly people were advising against it the last couple of weeks/months until the order was effectively given by Biden? We don't know. People applauded Biden without realizing the domino effect it would trigger, now people are calling it the worst decision of the century (and it may very well be). Every and any side turns with the wind in whatever direction is favorable to them, don't get yourself dragged into it. I would argue the speed with which Afghanistan fell shows it was the right call. The situation was totally hopeless. The complete dissolution of the government shows it was never real to begin with. There was already a ton of subterfuge/betrayal happening. I think the reality of the situation is that we were putting on a show. We were probably screwed for the past ~year. We never had the support of the citizens. They didn't want us there. They prefer the Taliban. That's the reality. Nothing we can do so long as that is true. Yeah I think those are good points. The speed with which the government collapsed just shows how insubstantial it really was. We were never close to winning any kind of cultural war, and militarily it seems the US tried to make a clone of its own army. I guess one thing to learn from this is not to stop trying to impose our way of governance and running a military onto other countries. Maybe not invading and occupying them too might be a good idea.
Fundamentally, they didn't want us there. They did not see us as fixing the country. So long as that remains true, we were never going to be successful. You can't liberate a people against their will.
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Norway28707 Posts
The urban/rural divide is probably just as real in Afghanistan as it is in the west.
Two of my students last year were Afghan refugees. One girl, one guy. Girl is one of the most impressive and driven people I've ever met in my life. Feels really sad knowing that the country is full of girls with similar drives but that won't be able to achieve any of it.
I read that Taliban has been saying they're going to be more moderate now and that girls can go to school.. But then I also read that they had already fired some girls working in banks, telling them that they could send their male relatives to work there instead. Another big question is to what degree they're going to punish collaborators.
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On August 16 2021 02:16 Purressure wrote:Show nested quote +On August 16 2021 01:17 NewSunshine wrote:On August 16 2021 00:53 Oleo wrote:On August 15 2021 23:50 Introvert wrote:On August 15 2021 22:50 PhoenixVoid wrote:
I'm quite astonished at how poorly the resistance was projected by experts who were predicting years, months and weeks for the Taliban to take control of Kabul, the major cities and Afghanistan. Just three or four days ago I read a European diplomat or military figure say it would take 90 days for Kabul to be occupied by the Taliban. I guess not even the experts would have expected the ANA to collapse this rapidly with little to no resistance. Biden's outlook on Afghanistan probably based on that intelligence looks quite silly now.
Ultimately, I weep for the people of Afghanistan. I have no trust in the Taliban's word to moderate their rule, and whatever progress was made for women and a generation who grew up under the NATO/American military occupation will soon be erased overnight. Afghanistan will probably be another battleground for powers like Iran, Russia, China and various extremist groups. There will be a flood of Afghan refugees who have to contend with angry anti-refugee sentiment and Western governments who realize another refugee crisis will have to be handled without as much sympathy as the first. The least we can do for the people who collaborated with the NATO coalition is get them out safely and house them for their service. May we at least emerge from this tragedy having learned something, anything. Yes, this is terrible and everyone from Biden on down needs their comeuppance for this. 90 days they said, but now Kabul is gone before everyone is even out. And of course it's worse for those who now have to live under the Taliban, from what I read they are already chasing people down... The US hasn't even lost a service member there in over a year. This is all of course a disgrace for the US and tragic for the people of Afghanistan. It was republicans who invaded with a poor plan. It was republicans who initiated the withdrawal in a poor way. It was republicans who gutted the american intelligence, government and institutions for the last 4 years. But hey, lets blame the Democrats, since they couldnt clean up the republicans mess. You've nailed it. Democrats aren't perfect obviously, but they've been on the shitty end of a cycle where Republicans break everything, Democrats try to fix what they can, and Republicans suddenly jump to the moral high ground and point the finger for not effectively resolving all the issues they created. For decades. Maybe let's have some comeuppance for Bush, Cheney, and everyone else down that chain of command, if we're so upset with the current situation all of a sudden. There's no good answer to this situation in Afghanistan, clearly, but Biden didn't snap his fingers and put thousands of troops there. He stepped into a situation created by others. It's still Biden who eventually decided to go ahead with pulling out regardless of how good or bad it may have been at the time. People can blame Republicans all they want, it's Obama who expanded the amount of troops there and left the situation in an unstable condition. Yes, Trump wanted to pull out too, but would he have proceeded seeing how badly people were advising against it the last couple of weeks/months until the order was effectively given by Biden? We don't know. People applauded Biden without realizing the domino effect it would trigger, now people are calling it the worst decision of the century (and it may very well be). Every and any side turns with the wind in whatever direction is favorable to them, don't get yourself dragged into it.
Nonsense. When has Trump substantially changed on anything he set his mind to? If anything he would have seen Democrats rallying against it and further dug in his heels.
Also, adjusting ones view to take into account new evidence is a healthy way to react to things.
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On August 16 2021 03:07 Liquid`Drone wrote:
The urban/rural divide is probably just as real in Afghanistan as it is in the west.
Two of my students last year were Afghan refugees. One girl, one guy. Girl is one of the most impressive and driven people I've ever met in my life. Feels really sad knowing that the country is full of girls with similar drives but that won't be able to achieve any of it.
I read that Taliban has been saying they're going to be more moderate now and that girls can go to school.. But then I also read that they had already fired some girls working in banks, telling them that they could send their male relatives to work there instead. Another big question is to what degree they're going to punish collaborators.
I agree that it is sad. We should do everything we can to help those people leave Afghanistan and study elsewhere. We have nothing to gain by trying to change Afghanistan. Their culture and their religious beliefs simply disallow what we are trying to give them.
You guys remember what happened in the US when we tried to get rural towns to integrate? My impression is that these rural areas (which is most of Afghanistan) are all like that.
Also, you guys remember when the US left in the middle of the night because they didn't trust the Afghan military? This provides context. The US knew they were about to be turned on IMO.
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On August 16 2021 02:35 RvB wrote:Show nested quote +On August 16 2021 01:30 LegalLord wrote:On August 16 2021 01:18 Mohdoo wrote:
This next 2 years will be very good for understanding how the US should interact with the suffering world. If Afghanistan ends up worse in 2 years than it was 6 months ago, people need to drop the "world police!!!!" Shtick and let the US do its job. If it ends up better, great, we can save a lot of money and lives.
Since women are being forced to resign from universities and the covid vaccine has been outlawed, I gotta admit guys, it kind of looks bad. But I'll wait and see I have little faith that the Taliban will be a beacon of truth, justice, and the American way inside of Afghanistan. But if they can keep out the Islamist influences a la Al Qaeda / ISIS, that's still a win. The US doesn't really have a lot of qualms with dictators as long as they are US-friendly either, so that part hardly matters. I expect the next year or so to involve all the surrounding countries taking special precautions to secure their Afghani border and seeing if diplomatic missions remain viable. If they do, trade and infrastructure could follow. If not, and Afghanistan becomes an Islamist hotbed - probably China's turn to be up to bat. Al Qaeda already operates in Taliban territory. They're not going to keep them out.
Yeah, I don’t expect great things out of the Taliban or have any illusions that they’re a faction of moderate head-choppers. They’re more than willing to take help from the Islamists. But if they take border security as seriously as they claim they will, maybe they can at least keep from exporting terrorism.
Not like there’s a viable alternative to the Taliban at this point to prop up. The only other option is a black hole like Libya.
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On August 16 2021 03:17 Mohdoo wrote:
Also, you guys remember when the US left in the middle of the night because they didn't trust the Afghan military? This provides context. The US knew they were about to be turned on IMO.
This is just another stupid hot take from you. American Intelligence calculated that the country would fall in 90 days if the army stood and fought. The army collapsed immediately because they knew they stood no chance and the Taliban does not tolerate resistance. Giving up is just rational self interest. There's no hero America is this situation where we got out before the baddies turned on us.
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On August 16 2021 03:32 Blitzkrieg0 wrote:Show nested quote +On August 16 2021 03:17 Mohdoo wrote:
Also, you guys remember when the US left in the middle of the night because they didn't trust the Afghan military? This provides context. The US knew they were about to be turned on IMO. This is just another stupid hot take from you. American Intelligence calculated that the country would fall in 90 days if the army stood and fought. The army collapsed immediately because they knew they stood no chance and the Taliban does not tolerate resistance. Giving up is just rational self interest. There's no hero America is this situation where we got out before the baddies turned on us.
I'm not saying it makes the US heroes, I'm saying it means we left at a good time.
What I don't understand is what made the US think the "government" would fight against the Taliban for 90 days? Everyone is citing this idea of "why fight a lost war?" but it feels like no one in the US had that thought lol
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On August 16 2021 03:37 Mohdoo wrote:Show nested quote +On August 16 2021 03:32 Blitzkrieg0 wrote:On August 16 2021 03:17 Mohdoo wrote:
Also, you guys remember when the US left in the middle of the night because they didn't trust the Afghan military? This provides context. The US knew they were about to be turned on IMO. This is just another stupid hot take from you. American Intelligence calculated that the country would fall in 90 days if the army stood and fought. The army collapsed immediately because they knew they stood no chance and the Taliban does not tolerate resistance. Giving up is just rational self interest. There's no hero America is this situation where we got out before the baddies turned on us. I'm not saying it makes the US heroes, I'm saying it means we left at a good time. What I don't understand is what made the US think the "government" would fight against the Taliban for 90 days? Everyone is citing this idea of "why fight a lost war?" but it feels like no one in the US had that thought lol
Because the decision was made to exclude the Taliban from the US Puppet government 15 years ago and we've been lying to ourselves that there is a happy ending for twenty.
The problem with the "good time to leave" is that it ignores any policy beyond sticking around with the same failure of a puppet government or giving up.
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Norway28707 Posts
I do think Taliban is much more of a threat to Afghanistan than it is to the west. They don't really seem to have grandiose Khalifate-plans or whatever. Hopefully/even somewhat likely, they're going to realize that terrorism (targeting the west) originating from Afghanistan is arguably the biggest threat to their continued reign and try to keep just that in check.
Not that I was really worried about terrorism anyway. But I'm not really 'more' worried about it now than I was 2 weeks ago.
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On August 16 2021 03:51 Liquid`Drone wrote:
I do think Taliban is much more of a threat to Afghanistan than it is to the west. They don't really seem to have grandiose Khalifate-plans or whatever. Hopefully/even somewhat likely, they're going to realize that terrorism (targeting the west) originating from Afghanistan is arguably the biggest threat to their continued reign and try to keep just that in check.
Not that I was really worried about terrorism anyway. But I'm not really 'more' worried about it now than I was 2 weeks ago.
Only hope we have is that it's not really all the same Taliban anymore. It used to be 100 % Pasthun but according to most sources Pakistan added 50.000 fighters (they only have about 70.000) when the organisation was more or less broken. Some credit their incredibly coordinated and calculated advance to Pakistani military intelligence. If that's the case then maybe their is enough influence to keep things "acceptable" to the rest of the world.
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On August 16 2021 02:31 Biff The Understudy wrote:Show nested quote +On August 16 2021 01:07 Jek wrote:On August 15 2021 23:53 Biff The Understudy wrote:On August 15 2021 23:28 Gorsameth wrote:On August 15 2021 22:50 Biff The Understudy wrote:On August 15 2021 22:20 Purressure wrote:On August 15 2021 22:14 Biff The Understudy wrote:
It’s a freakin tragedy for the Afghan people. It’s the first step from Biden that makes me actually really angry. I understand that there was no good option, but to just leave the people of Afghanistan to the wolves is inhuman. The suffering to come is incommensurable. And as a result Europe will have to deal with another surge of refugees, and I'm sure they already had quite enough of them so no idea how that's going to pan out but I can definitely see some countries simply saying no this time which is a bad thing for those fleeing from the Taliban but at the same time I think it'd be an understandable response. There are no winners but the Taliban. Asylum seekers from Afghanistan will have a much better case. As it was, many parts of the country were relatively safe and peaceful. That’s not going to be the case anymore. It’s kind of impossible to justify deporting anyone to a country governed by the Talibans. Definitely a refugee and humanitarian crisis in the making. I expect Europe to essentially do the same thing than with the Syrians: play with their own kafkaian rules to not even let those people have s chance to ask for asylum. Horrible… Several EU nations plan to keep returning Afghan refugees who's request for asylum has been rejected. www.reuters.com Obviously Denmark is in the mix. Their “left-wing” government is one if the most openly xenophobic in Europe and doesn’t pale off to some far right parties when it comes to demonizing immigrants and asylum seekers. Thrn again, Denmark has a huge problem with racism, so I guess that’s how they figured out they could win elections. Despicable. This is wrong and painfully ignorant about our sociopolitics and political landscape. Please enlighten me, which part is wrong? We can start there, for those interested: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-07/racism-is-seen-as-a-growing-threat-in-denmark-poll-shows
Because if you actually live here, have spend time in both the lows and the high of society, the social system and are not trying to write sensational articles you know that,
- We dont have a huge problem with racism. There is proportionally just as much racism/hatecrime the other way around. It's a vicious cycle of A hates B because B hate A because A hates B.
- It's a single party's fault we have such laws. For years and years they were the last few procent to push the votes above 50% and basically made our right-side their lapdog regarding immigration because otherwise they wouldn't support them. Yay democracy.
- Everyone hate said party.
- Said party get a lot of their voters because they also have a lot of politics supporting the elderly. Prior goverments have made massive cuts in the elderly care budgets leaving carehomes understaffed and underpaid.
- The notorious Jewelry Law has only been used to catch criminals trying to smuggle in dufflebags of cold hard untracable cash. Items with sentimental values are in fact protected by it.
- Our integration projects have largely been a huge succes, most are either in job or education.
- The seperation of religion and law is one of our most core values and something we fought bloody war for.
- The demonization of criminal emigrants is because Denmark is a small country, there is only so much space for criminal organizations and right now it is dominated by second and third gens. They are far more violent than anything we have had in Denmark before.
- We value our welfare system very, very, very high and we have a limited budget.
- We have many anti-racism laws.
- I could go on and on.
Dont mess with #7 and #9 and 99% dont care about your skin color or religion. It is very easy to write that kind of articles if you ignore everything that doesn't fit your narrative of danes being cruel and vicious racists.
EDIT: To clarify on #1. It's not a more common occurance than hatecrime in other countries.
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On August 16 2021 06:14 Jek wrote:Show nested quote +On August 16 2021 02:31 Biff The Understudy wrote:On August 16 2021 01:07 Jek wrote:On August 15 2021 23:53 Biff The Understudy wrote:On August 15 2021 23:28 Gorsameth wrote:On August 15 2021 22:50 Biff The Understudy wrote:On August 15 2021 22:20 Purressure wrote:On August 15 2021 22:14 Biff The Understudy wrote:
It’s a freakin tragedy for the Afghan people. It’s the first step from Biden that makes me actually really angry. I understand that there was no good option, but to just leave the people of Afghanistan to the wolves is inhuman. The suffering to come is incommensurable. And as a result Europe will have to deal with another surge of refugees, and I'm sure they already had quite enough of them so no idea how that's going to pan out but I can definitely see some countries simply saying no this time which is a bad thing for those fleeing from the Taliban but at the same time I think it'd be an understandable response. There are no winners but the Taliban. Asylum seekers from Afghanistan will have a much better case. As it was, many parts of the country were relatively safe and peaceful. That’s not going to be the case anymore. It’s kind of impossible to justify deporting anyone to a country governed by the Talibans. Definitely a refugee and humanitarian crisis in the making. I expect Europe to essentially do the same thing than with the Syrians: play with their own kafkaian rules to not even let those people have s chance to ask for asylum. Horrible… Several EU nations plan to keep returning Afghan refugees who's request for asylum has been rejected. www.reuters.com Obviously Denmark is in the mix. Their “left-wing” government is one if the most openly xenophobic in Europe and doesn’t pale off to some far right parties when it comes to demonizing immigrants and asylum seekers. Thrn again, Denmark has a huge problem with racism, so I guess that’s how they figured out they could win elections. Despicable. This is wrong and painfully ignorant about our sociopolitics and political landscape. Please enlighten me, which part is wrong? We can start there, for those interested: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-07/racism-is-seen-as-a-growing-threat-in-denmark-poll-shows Because if you actually live here, have spend time in both the lows and the high of society, the social system and are not trying to write sensational articles you know that, - We dont have a huge problem with racism. There is proportionally just as much racism the other way around. It's a vicious cycle of A hates B because B hate A because A hates B.
- It's a single party's fault we have such laws. For years and years they were the last few procent to push the votes above 50% and basically made our right-side their lapdog regarding immigration because otherwise they wouldn't support them. Yay democracy.
- Everyone hate said party.
- Said party get a lot of their voters because they also have a lot of politics supporting the elderly. Prior goverments have made massive cuts in the elderly care budgets leaving carehomes understaffed and underpaid.
- The notorious Jewelry Law has only been used to catch criminals trying to smuggle in dufflebags of cold hard untracable cash. Items with sentimental values are in fact protected by it.
- Our integration projects have largely been a huge succes, most are either in job or education.
- The seperation of religion and law is one of our most core values and something we fought bloody war for.
- The demonization of criminal emigrants is because Denmark is a small country, there is only so much space for criminal organizations and right now it is dominated by second and third gens. They are far more violent than anything we have had in Denmark before.
- We value our welfare system very, very, very high and we have a limited budget.
- We have many anti-racism laws.
- I could go on and on.
Dont mess with #7 and #9 and 99% dont care about your skin color or religion. It is very easy to write that kind of articles if you ignore everything that doesn't fit your narrative of danes being cruel and vicious racists.
One of the hardest parts of conversations like this is when a historically persecuted, down on luck group, really is screwing up and making a mess. We have a tendency to either label people victims or aggressors and can't seem to add any nuance. Denmark had a really well oiled machine going for a long time. It is only natural that people in Denmark would have an easy time noticing what changed and who is changing it.
It shouldn't be surprising. When you are taking in refugees or people immigrating from these places, at one point you gotta recognize why they are showing up in Denmark. What was their previous home like? Was it the same culture as Denmark? What was different? Are they educated? Are they properly socialized? The answers to these questions causes issues.
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On August 16 2021 00:53 Oleo wrote:Show nested quote +On August 15 2021 23:50 Introvert wrote:On August 15 2021 22:50 PhoenixVoid wrote:
I'm quite astonished at how poorly the resistance was projected by experts who were predicting years, months and weeks for the Taliban to take control of Kabul, the major cities and Afghanistan. Just three or four days ago I read a European diplomat or military figure say it would take 90 days for Kabul to be occupied by the Taliban. I guess not even the experts would have expected the ANA to collapse this rapidly with little to no resistance. Biden's outlook on Afghanistan probably based on that intelligence looks quite silly now.
Ultimately, I weep for the people of Afghanistan. I have no trust in the Taliban's word to moderate their rule, and whatever progress was made for women and a generation who grew up under the NATO/American military occupation will soon be erased overnight. Afghanistan will probably be another battleground for powers like Iran, Russia, China and various extremist groups. There will be a flood of Afghan refugees who have to contend with angry anti-refugee sentiment and Western governments who realize another refugee crisis will have to be handled without as much sympathy as the first. The least we can do for the people who collaborated with the NATO coalition is get them out safely and house them for their service. May we at least emerge from this tragedy having learned something, anything. Yes, this is terrible and everyone from Biden on down needs their comeuppance for this. 90 days they said, but now Kabul is gone before everyone is even out. And of course it's worse for those who now have to live under the Taliban, from what I read they are already chasing people down... The US hasn't even lost a service member there in over a year. This is all of course a disgrace for the US and tragic for the people of Afghanistan. It was republicans who invaded with a poor plan. It was republicans who initiated the withdrawal in a poor way. It was republicans who gutted the american intelligence, government and institutions for the last 4 years. But hey, lets blame the Democrats, since they couldnt clean up the republicans mess.
On August 16 2021 00:56 Gorsameth wrote:Show nested quote +On August 15 2021 23:50 Introvert wrote:On August 15 2021 22:50 PhoenixVoid wrote:
I'm quite astonished at how poorly the resistance was projected by experts who were predicting years, months and weeks for the Taliban to take control of Kabul, the major cities and Afghanistan. Just three or four days ago I read a European diplomat or military figure say it would take 90 days for Kabul to be occupied by the Taliban. I guess not even the experts would have expected the ANA to collapse this rapidly with little to no resistance. Biden's outlook on Afghanistan probably based on that intelligence looks quite silly now.
Ultimately, I weep for the people of Afghanistan. I have no trust in the Taliban's word to moderate their rule, and whatever progress was made for women and a generation who grew up under the NATO/American military occupation will soon be erased overnight. Afghanistan will probably be another battleground for powers like Iran, Russia, China and various extremist groups. There will be a flood of Afghan refugees who have to contend with angry anti-refugee sentiment and Western governments who realize another refugee crisis will have to be handled without as much sympathy as the first. The least we can do for the people who collaborated with the NATO coalition is get them out safely and house them for their service. May we at least emerge from this tragedy having learned something, anything. Yes, this is terrible and everyone from Biden on down needs their comeuppance for this. 90 days they said, but now Kabul is gone before everyone is even out. And of course it's worse for those who now have to live under the Taliban, from what I read they are already chasing people down... The US hasn't even lost a service member there in over a year. This is all of course a disgrace for the US and tragic for the people of Afghanistan. So you think the US should stay? Lets have Congress vote on that, who do you think will vote against staying more, Democrats or Republicans?
I more or less agree with Purressure.
But my point here wasn't "Democrats bad!" although I think given Biden and his party this debacle is not entirely a surprise...Now, I didn't agree with Trump's plan either. But this is on Biden (besides, you know, being the one in charge) he wanted out by Sep 11 and hastened the pullout. The reaction of most seems to be at least sadness and surprise at the speed at which the situation is deteriorating but was everyone just going to blame the wind? Think this sequence of events was inevitable? It obviously wasn't, and Biden, the Sec of State, and many others assured everyone it wasn't within the last few weeks.
I've seen some reporting that the military brass told Biden not to go so quickly either but he insisted. This is primarily on the president.
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Northern Ireland26035 Posts
On August 16 2021 03:17 Mohdoo wrote:Show nested quote +On August 16 2021 03:07 Liquid`Drone wrote:
The urban/rural divide is probably just as real in Afghanistan as it is in the west.
Two of my students last year were Afghan refugees. One girl, one guy. Girl is one of the most impressive and driven people I've ever met in my life. Feels really sad knowing that the country is full of girls with similar drives but that won't be able to achieve any of it.
I read that Taliban has been saying they're going to be more moderate now and that girls can go to school.. But then I also read that they had already fired some girls working in banks, telling them that they could send their male relatives to work there instead. Another big question is to what degree they're going to punish collaborators. I agree that it is sad. We should do everything we can to help those people leave Afghanistan and study elsewhere. We have nothing to gain by trying to change Afghanistan. Their culture and their religious beliefs simply disallow what we are trying to give them. You guys remember what happened in the US when we tried to get rural towns to integrate? My impression is that these rural areas (which is most of Afghanistan) are all like that. Also, you guys remember when the US left in the middle of the night because they didn't trust the Afghan military? This provides context. The US knew they were about to be turned on IMO.
Seems hopeless, I don’t actually know the average Afghanistani’s overall worldview to be fair, I’d be pulling stuff out of my arse.
But yes, less here than in other places but the idea that maybe they don’t want things like women in schools or work seems to be something some people refuse to even entertain.
This amidst a backdrop of a ‘culture war’ and much headscratching of how to bridge partisan divides within our own culture. On even things such as ‘do vaccines work?’ or ‘is this pandemic real?’.
Even those divides, across people who are generally culturally very similar seem borderline uncrossable, so multiply the cultural difference many times over and I’m unsure why people think it’s remotely possible in the short term.
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On August 16 2021 03:32 Blitzkrieg0 wrote:Show nested quote +On August 16 2021 03:17 Mohdoo wrote:
Also, you guys remember when the US left in the middle of the night because they didn't trust the Afghan military? This provides context. The US knew they were about to be turned on IMO. This is just another stupid hot take from you. American Intelligence calculated that the country would fall in 90 days if the army stood and fought. The army collapsed immediately because they knew they stood no chance and the Taliban does not tolerate resistance. Giving up is just rational self interest. There's no hero America is this situation where we got out before the baddies turned on us.
The failure of American intelligence agencies and the State department is indeed a very underplayed story here. And its why Left-Right blame gaming is so stupid. There was broad consensus among the permanent bureaucracy, NGOs, etc that the plan to democratize and liberalize Afghanistan was a brilliant plan.
There was also broad consensus that you could train an army to defend liberalism. Failed in Iraq and Afghanistan. Again, you could have asked just about any Bush, Obama, or Clinton advisor and they'd all tell you these plans were brilliant from 2001-2016. They also almost all thought Pakistan would eventually come around and become full partners in that project instead of the passive resistance while speaking nice words that actually has been going on.
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On August 16 2021 07:12 Introvert wrote:Show nested quote +On August 16 2021 00:53 Oleo wrote:On August 15 2021 23:50 Introvert wrote:On August 15 2021 22:50 PhoenixVoid wrote:
I'm quite astonished at how poorly the resistance was projected by experts who were predicting years, months and weeks for the Taliban to take control of Kabul, the major cities and Afghanistan. Just three or four days ago I read a European diplomat or military figure say it would take 90 days for Kabul to be occupied by the Taliban. I guess not even the experts would have expected the ANA to collapse this rapidly with little to no resistance. Biden's outlook on Afghanistan probably based on that intelligence looks quite silly now.
Ultimately, I weep for the people of Afghanistan. I have no trust in the Taliban's word to moderate their rule, and whatever progress was made for women and a generation who grew up under the NATO/American military occupation will soon be erased overnight. Afghanistan will probably be another battleground for powers like Iran, Russia, China and various extremist groups. There will be a flood of Afghan refugees who have to contend with angry anti-refugee sentiment and Western governments who realize another refugee crisis will have to be handled without as much sympathy as the first. The least we can do for the people who collaborated with the NATO coalition is get them out safely and house them for their service. May we at least emerge from this tragedy having learned something, anything. Yes, this is terrible and everyone from Biden on down needs their comeuppance for this. 90 days they said, but now Kabul is gone before everyone is even out. And of course it's worse for those who now have to live under the Taliban, from what I read they are already chasing people down... The US hasn't even lost a service member there in over a year. This is all of course a disgrace for the US and tragic for the people of Afghanistan. It was republicans who invaded with a poor plan. It was republicans who initiated the withdrawal in a poor way. It was republicans who gutted the american intelligence, government and institutions for the last 4 years. But hey, lets blame the Democrats, since they couldnt clean up the republicans mess. Show nested quote +On August 16 2021 00:56 Gorsameth wrote:On August 15 2021 23:50 Introvert wrote:On August 15 2021 22:50 PhoenixVoid wrote:
I'm quite astonished at how poorly the resistance was projected by experts who were predicting years, months and weeks for the Taliban to take control of Kabul, the major cities and Afghanistan. Just three or four days ago I read a European diplomat or military figure say it would take 90 days for Kabul to be occupied by the Taliban. I guess not even the experts would have expected the ANA to collapse this rapidly with little to no resistance. Biden's outlook on Afghanistan probably based on that intelligence looks quite silly now.
Ultimately, I weep for the people of Afghanistan. I have no trust in the Taliban's word to moderate their rule, and whatever progress was made for women and a generation who grew up under the NATO/American military occupation will soon be erased overnight. Afghanistan will probably be another battleground for powers like Iran, Russia, China and various extremist groups. There will be a flood of Afghan refugees who have to contend with angry anti-refugee sentiment and Western governments who realize another refugee crisis will have to be handled without as much sympathy as the first. The least we can do for the people who collaborated with the NATO coalition is get them out safely and house them for their service. May we at least emerge from this tragedy having learned something, anything. Yes, this is terrible and everyone from Biden on down needs their comeuppance for this. 90 days they said, but now Kabul is gone before everyone is even out. And of course it's worse for those who now have to live under the Taliban, from what I read they are already chasing people down... The US hasn't even lost a service member there in over a year. This is all of course a disgrace for the US and tragic for the people of Afghanistan. So you think the US should stay? Lets have Congress vote on that, who do you think will vote against staying more, Democrats or Republicans? I more or less agree with Purressure. But my point here wasn't "Democrats bad!" although I think given Biden and his party this debacle is not entirely a surprise...Now, I didn't agree with Trump's plan either. But this is on Biden (besides, you know, being the one in charge) he wanted out by Sep 11 and hastened the pullout. The reaction of most seems to be at least sadness and surprise at the speed at which the situation is deteriorating but was everyone just going to blame the wind? Think this sequence of events was inevitable? It obviously wasn't, and Biden, the Sec of State, and many others assured everyone it wasn't within the last few weeks. I've seen some reporting that the military brass told Biden not to go so quickly either but he insisted. This is primarily on the president.
It's obvious that this wasn't inevitable? Do you think the US military staying there a few more months would have accomplished something that the last 20 years has not? Or that they should have remained indefinitely?
There's obviously been a large intelligence failure because the US government seems genuinely taken by surprise. But other than that, I don't see what you expect to have been done since Biden was in office that would have stopped the Taliban from taking over?
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EPT
